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2017 Breeders’ Cup: Saturday Analysis, Selections, and Wagering Strategies

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

Saturday is arguably the biggest day of the year in horse racing. It’s the second day of the Breeders’ Cup, and nine Grade 1 races are on tap, most with year-end championship implications. Furthermore, even the sport’s top horses will be bettable prices (most of them, anyway), which gives the event an extra layer of intrigue. I’ll preview all nine Breeders’ Cup races below, and hopefully, we can work our way to a nice score!

NOTE: To view Friday’s analysis, selections, and wagering strategies, click here.

BREEDERS’ CUP JUVENILE FILLIES

Right away, we’re met with a real head-scratcher. The Juvenile Fillies drew a field of 13 2-year-olds, and there are reasons to like most of them. Furthermore, a few of the betting favorites wound up with post positions that were, to be kind, less than ideal.

I’ll get to a few of them in a moment, but my top pick is #7 MOONSHINE MEMORIES. She’s 3-for-3 in her career, and two of those wins came in Grade 1 races. Her first two-turn effort was a sharp one, as she was comfortably best in the Chandelier at Santa Anita. Additionally, when trainer Simon Callaghan gets a horse good, they tend to stay good. Over the past year (through Wednesday), he’s 8-for-17 with last-out winners on dirt, and she’s worked as though more improvement is in the cards on Saturday.

#1 HEAVENLY LOVE and #13 SEPARATIONOFPOWERS also won important prep races, but they’ll bookend the field after getting the worst of Monday’s never-ending post position draw (shoutout to friend Ed DeRosa, who quipped that they’d brought back the Breeders’ Cup Marathon and renamed it the Breeders’ Cup post position draw!). Both can win, but of this pair, I prefer Separationofpowers, who was very green but still powered away late in the Grade 1 Frizette. She runs like a horse that wants two turns, and if Jose Ortiz can save even a bit of ground early and keep this daughter of Candy Ride out of trouble, she can certainly win.

The wild card in this race (to me, at least), is #11 WONDER GADOT, one of three in here for trainer Mark Casse. She’s 2-for-3 and took a major step forward in winning the Grade 3 Mazarine. The caveat here is that she’s never run on dirt, but her works on dirt at Churchill have been quite good. It would not be a shock if she takes to this surface, one that can be very kind to the early speed she’s shown she possesses.

BREEDERS’ CUP TURF SPRINT

The Turf Sprint has drawn some of the fastest horses in the world to go five furlongs. This includes some sharp European invaders, and your favorite is a horse that has made seven starts across three countries.

That’s #3 LADY AURELIA, and when she’s right, she’s probably the top turf sprinter on the planet. Her effort two back at Ascot in the Group 1 King’s Stand was sensational, and she did everything but win last time out in the Group 1 Nunthorpe. She has plenty of tactical speed but does not need the lead, and all signs point to her sitting a dream trip.

This race, though, features a rematch with #6 MARSHA, who won the Nunthorpe head-bob before finishing second in a Group 1 at Chantilly. She’s incredibly consistent, with 15 top-three finishes in 17 lifetime starts, and her best race is certainly good enough to win this (especially given the addition of Lasix in her North American debut).

Of the horses that have spent most of the year in the U.S., I most like #1 DISCO PARTNER, who has won four of five starts this year. The lone defeat came in the Grade 1 Fourstardave, which was run over a very wet turf course at Saratoga going much longer than he wants to go. The rail draw does not scare me one bit, and in fact, it could be an advantage. Deep closers are traditionally up against it going five furlongs, and this could mean Irad Ortiz Jr. keeps him a bit closer to the pace out of the gate.

Of the horses that may get bet a bit in here, the one I want no part of is #12 PURE SENSATION. If this race were contested at Parx, where he’s been flat-out unbeatable sprinting on turf, he’d be one of the favorites. However, this is a far different surface, and horses breaking from the far outside in Del Mar turf sprints traditionally do not do well. He’s got some speed, but if he goes too fast early on, it probably compromises him turning for home. As such, he’s a bet-against for me at his likely price.

BREEDERS’ CUP FILLY & MARE SPRINT

One of the shortest favorites of the day runs in the Filly & Mare Sprint. While that favorite is my top pick, I don’t think she’s unbeatable, and there may be room for a few prices in the exotics.

#11 UNIQUE BELLA has been sensational, winning her last five starts. She was sidelined for much of the year, but she came back running with a win in last month’s Grade 3 L.A. Woman. Her workouts have been jaw-dropping, and all signs are that she’s ready to go ahead of her biggest test to date.

However, there are reasons to think that she may not be a cinch. Her Beyer Speed Figures don’t tower over this group, although part of that is because of how easily she’s won and how Mike Smith has geared down on her. With that said, he had to ask her in the L.A. Woman, and it’s not like that was a stellar group she beat that day. I’m using her, but I’m not singling her.

#9 FINLEY’SLUCKYCHARM had every excuse to run poorly in the Grade 2 TCA at Keeneland. She broke poorly and rated behind slow early fractions that day, but she still found a way to win. She’s 9-for-12 lifetime with two second-place finishes, and 6-1 seems like an overlay for a horse with her talent.

There are several other contenders, especially if you’re looking for “underneath” horses. #2 PAULASSILVERLINING’s race in the Grade 1 Ballerina was too bad to be true, #8 CONSTELLATION goes to Bob Baffert’s barn and could sit a stalking trip at a great price, and #12 SKYE DIAMONDS hasn’t been beaten in five one-turn outings this season. Yes, Unique Bella is a deserving favorite, but I feel like there are ways to find value in this spot.

BREEDERS’ CUP FILLY & MARE TURF

Due to the configuration of Del Mar, this year’s Filly & Mare Turf will be run at a mile and an eighth, as opposed to its usual distance of a mile and a quarter. This benefits a likely favorite immensely, and the draw also helped that one, too.

Of course, I’m referring to #9 LADY ELI, one of the best stories in racing. She can write an improbable ending Saturday with a win in this race, one that seems likely given her recent form. It’s not like she’s incapable of running well at a mile and a quarter, but she’s probably better going a mile and an eighth. If that was last year’s distance, she probably holds off #10 QUEEN’S TRUST, who nailed her on the wire and returns in search of her second straight Breeders’ Cup victory.

Del Mar’s turf course is a bit quirky, and the horses who like it REALLY like it. With that in mind, I think #6 CAMBODIA merits a long look at a nice price. She won both the Yellow Ribbon and John C. Mabee earlier this year over this turf course, and while this spot represents a class test, it’s clear she does her best running here. At her likely price, I’ll at the very least want her on some of my tickets.

The big loser at the post position draw was #14 RHODODENDRON, who will somehow need to work out a trip from the far outside. Essentially, this is a three-turn race given the chute that the field will exit before coming under the wire the first time, so the far-outside post is unfortunate for this one’s camp. With that in mind, she may very well be talented enough to overcome it. She ran second to top-class fillies Enable and Winter in separate Group 1 races earlier this year before breaking through and nabbing such a win in last month’s Prix de l’Opera. If you’re playing exotics, I still think this talented 3-year-old is a must-use.

BREEDERS’ CUP SPRINT

I think this is the most wide-open race of Saturday’s Breeders’ Cup slate. A logical case can be made for as many as seven of the 10 horses signed on, and I’m very thankful that the folks in power kept this race out of the late Pick Four, as it probably would’ve been an “ALL” race for me. It IS the payoff leg of the early Pick Four, and that fact makes that wager very tricky.

#2 DREFONG won this race last year, and he seems like every bit the horse he was 12 months ago. His erratic behavior in the Bing Crosby is a red flag, but he was extremely impressive when romping in the Grade 1 Forego at Saratoga. Is that enough to make me think he’s a cinch here? Not even close.

We don’t have any idea how good #10 IMPERIAL HINT is. He’s won his last five races and stopped the timer in 1:07 and change when last seen in September. Can he respond to the jump in class and the change in location? #8 ROY H has won four of his last five, and his lone defeat in that stretch was a tough-luck second in the Bing Crosby when he was hindered by a rider-less Drefong. The winner of that race was #9 RANSOM THE MOON, who may have needed his clunker in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Sprint Championship and has worked well since then.

But wait! There’s more. #7 TAKAFUL’s lone loss around one turn came in the Grade 1 Allen Jerkens, and he rebounded from that with a sharp win in the Grade 1 Vosburgh when rating behind talented sprinter El Deal. Furthermore, #5 WHITMORE and #6 MIND YOUR BISCUITS were both highly-regarded earlier in the year, and both could benefit from a pace meltdown (which isn’t out of the realm of possibility given the early speed that’s signed on).

See how one could find this race challenging? I wouldn’t be stunned if Drefong won by daylight, but I also wouldn’t be surprised with any number of other scenarios.

BREEDERS’ CUP MILE

The late Pick Four starts here, and it boasts a guaranteed pool of $3 million. I’d be a fool not to take a shot, and I’ll go out on a limb and say that this race seems like the most likely in the sequence to feature a big price in the winner’s circle.

#10 RIBCHESTER is squarely the one to beat. He’s won three prestigious Group 1 races overseas, and he generally runs the same high-class race every time out, as evidenced by 14 top-three finishes in 15 career starts. His lone start over anything close to a firm turf course this year was a win in the Queen Anne at Royal Ascot, and if he’s ready to run, he’ll be tough.

Having said that, this will be Ribchester’s third race in three different countries in less than two months. If he turns out to be over the top, the door is wide open for an upset. With the race shape setting up for a closer, my second selection is #8 SUEDOIS, who capitalized on a similar scenario last month in the Grade 1 Shadwell Turf Mile at Keeneland. They flew home over a pretty slow turf course that day, and while he’s done solid work sprinting on turf, there’s evidence that says he may have been a miler all along. He’s 2-for-3 with a second-place finish in starts at eight furlongs, and given the likely fast pace, I think he’s got a big chance.

It wouldn’t be terribly shocking to see #5 WORLD APPROVAL win. He’s won four of his last five starts, and that stretch includes decisive wins in a pair of Grade 1 races at a mile. He’ll likely get first run at the leaders turning for home, and a repeat of the Woodbine Mile would put him right there. If there’s any hesitation here, it’s because the early pace may be quick enough to fry anyone close to it. Additionally, Woodbine form sometimes does not travel well. That’s a one-turn mile with a very long stretch run, and this race is a two-turn affair with a short stretch. It’s a minor strike against him, but it’s worth noting.

In playing my late Pick Four, I want closers that could come flying in the event of a pace meltdown. That includes #4 LANCASTER BOMBER, #7 OM, and #11 BALLAGH ROCKS, all of whom should be going the right way late. I’ll also throw in #12 ROLY POLY, who’s won three of his last four (with all of those races being Group 1 events at a mile) and goes out for the powerful duo of Aidan O’Brien and Ryan Moore. That’s seven of 14, and I haven’t even touched on #1 MIDNIGHT STORM, #2 HEART TO HEART, or #13 BLACKJACKCAT, all of whom are talented enough to win on their respective best days but may not get a scenario conducing such an effort. Midnight Storm and Heart to Heart figure to duke it out early, while Blackjackcat has to negotiate a trip from the 13-hole.

BREEDERS’ CUP JUVENILE

Hey, Breeders’ Cup? You know what we handicappers could really use? How about a race with a consensus single, one that would need to regress considerably off of his best effort in order to lose? Think you could make that happen?

Oh, hey, here we are with the shortest-priced favorite of the entire weekend! That’s #11 BOLT D’ORO, who will likely be shorter than his 9/5 morning line odds in the Juvenile. He’s 3-for-3 and was supremely impressive in the Grade 1 FrontRunner, where he stormed away to win by nearly eight lengths in a very fast time. He earned a 100 Beyer Speed Figure that day, and only one other horse in the race, #3 FIRENZE FIRE, has earned as high as a 90.

Bolt d’Oro would probably need to regress in order to lose, and one of the others would likely need to run a new career-best as well. Is that impossible? No, but it’s pretty unlikely. Bolt d’Oro will be a single for me (and, I imagine, for many others) in the late Pick Four, and if he doesn’t win, I lose.

If you’re hell-bent on playing this race in vertical wagers, the one I’m intrigued by for “underneath” purposes is #1 U S NAVY FLAG, who has established himself as Europe’s top 2-year-old following three consecutive graded stakes wins. He’s never tried dirt before, but his last-out Timeform Rating of 112 translates pretty well to this event and he gets Lasix for the first time. If you think Bolt d’Oro can’t lose and want a bit of a price underneath for a Dave Weaver-style “ice cold exacta,” U S Navy Flag may be worth a shot.

BREEDERS’ CUP TURF

This race was marred by the scratch of #5 ULYSSES, who may have gone off as the favorite. He was fourth in this race last year and seems to have gotten better since then. With his scratch, another European looks much more imposing.

#3 HIGHLAND REEL won this race last year thanks to a heads-up, aggressive ride. Some have said he’s taken a step back this year, but I don’t agree with that assessment. Highland Reel has always done his best running over firmer ground. He’s run five times this year. Only twice this year has he caught ground rated “good” or better, and on both occasions, he’s won Group 1 races. He goes second off the layoff in here, and I think he’s every bit the horse he was a season ago when he went wire-to-wire.

Of the Americans, I most prefer #12 BEACH PATROL, who may have wanted to run marathon races all along. He romped in the Grade 1 Joe Hirsch Turf Classic at Belmont last time out, earning a career-high Beyer Speed Figure of 109 in the process. Some regression is possible, and if you’re playing a skinnier Pick Four ticket, I could understand leaving him off. However, he’s the last horse I’m throwing onto mine. I simply can’t justify leaving a Chad Brown trainee that finally seems to have put it all together off of this ticket.

BREEDERS’ CUP CLASSIC

Ladies and gentlemen, boys and girls, children of all ages, this is your main event. $6 million is on the line in the Breeders’ Cup Classic, which doubles as the likely spot where a Horse of the Year will be crowned. Bob Baffert has four in here, including 2016 Classic winner #1 ARROGATE, while Steve Asmussen will saddle #5 GUN RUNNER, who has won his last five stateside starts and was a strong second behind Arrogate in the Dubai World Cup.

I’m not getting cute. I’m using the two horses I mentioned in the late Pick Four, and of the two, I narrowly prefer Gun Runner. The son of Candy Ride has never been better than he is right now, and while he has tactical speed, he can sit off the early leaders and make his move turning for home. The classic distance of a mile and a quarter is a bit of an unknown, but it’s not as much of a problem as it could be. Del Mar’s track configuration is such that the stretch is very short compared to other tracks, and as such, horses that may not get 10 furlongs elsewhere can sometimes get it where the turf meets the surf.

Gun Runner gets my top pick, but I’ll be covered if Arrogate channels his previous form. The rail draw does not concern me, as he won the Grade 1 Pegasus World Cup from a similar post. His lack of an affinity for Del Mar is a concern, for sure, but it isn’t like he ran a horrible race in the Grade 1 Pacific Classic. He earned a 114 Beyer Speed Figure that day, and a similar performance likely puts him right there in this spot.

Of the others who may get bet, the one I do not want any part of on top is #11 COLLECTED. Yes, he won the Pacific Classic at this route. However, there’s other early speed in here, and he won’t have nearly as easy a trip as he did that day. This is a significantly tougher group, and in seeking out key stats, I found a big negative one. Per DRF Formulator, Bob Baffert and Martin Garcia are 0-for-20 together over the past six months with horses going off at odds of 4-1 or higher. That’s a damning statistic, and while I could see Collected hanging on for a piece of it, I’ll be pretty stunned if he fends off all comers once again.

PICK FOUR TICKETS

$0.50 Pick Four: Race #5

R5: 1,3,6
R6: 9,11
R7: 9
R8: ALL

60 Bets, $30

I constructed this ticket to where I could hit the “ALL” button in the Sprint without breaking the bank. Unfortunately, this means I could not include Cambodia in the Filly & Mare Turf. I think she’s got a real shot, but Lady Eli is my top pick, and I feel more comfortable singling her than Unique Bella. If you don’t mind spending an extra $30 (or can narrow the Sprint down), Cambodia is the one I’d encourage you to use, and I will be hedging with her in doubles.

$0.50 Pick Four: Race #9

R9: ALL
R10: 11
R11: 3,12
R12: 1,5

56 Bets, $28

If the Mile is formful, this may not pay much. What I’m banking on is that the $3 million pool will guarantee a reasonable return on investment, even with the consensus single (Bolt d’Oro) in the second leg. With some luck, we’ll get a price home in the Mile, the rest of the sequence will be formful, and we’ll wind up with a nice score.

2017 Breeders’ Cup: Friday Analysis, Selections, and Wagering Strategies

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

Friday is the first day of the 2017 Breeders’ Cup, and in a lot of ways, the four championship races on tap represent the best of what the event is supposed to offer. With big, talented fields going postward that include some of the top horses in training, it makes for a fun Pick Four sequence, as well as four races with standalone wagering value.

These previews, needless to say, will be a bit more substantial than what you’ve seen from me in the past. I’ll have a Pick Four ticket at the end, but given the subject matter, I feel it appropriate to expound on each race. With that being said, here we go!

BREEDERS’ CUP JUVENILE FILLIES TURF

Five of Europe’s top 2-year-old fillies have come across the pond for this one, and the invaders are led by #2 HAPPILY. She comes in off a pair of Group 1 races, including one against the boys at Chantilly. Only one other European filly in this field can approach her top Timeform rating of 105, and if Happily runs her usual race, she’ll be tough to beat.

The most-bet American runner will probably be #11 RUSHING FALL. She’s 2-for-2, and the Chad Brown trainee most recently captured the Grade 3 Jessamine with a huge late move. She rallied from twelfth to win going away, and there appears to be plenty of pace signed on here. This is a much tougher field than what she’s faced in the past, but based on numbers and the likely race shape, she’s a must-use.

There’s a bigger price signed on that I think merits consideration as well. #6 ORBOLUTION is 20-1 on the morning line, but she’d have been less than half of that if this race was held before the Miss Grillo, and in that race, she had a sneaky-awful trip. She’s a smaller filly who had shined going two turns, but in that one-turn race, she was between horses throughout and clearly intimidated. She tried that day, but it wasn’t her ideal trip or route of ground. She gets a two-turn trip today, and 20-1 is way too big a price.

BREEDERS’ CUP DIRT MILE

The big question here is this: Which version of #6 MOR SPIRIT do we get? His Met Mile win was one of the best races we’ve seen all year long, but he hasn’t run since. A repeat of that effort probably means everyone else is running for second money. However, if he’s not ready, that opens the door for another runner in what turned out to be a pretty salty field.

#8 ACCELERATE is incredibly logical. He’s 3-for-4 at Del Mar, and his lone local loss came in the Pacific Classic, when he chased Collected and Arrogate going longer than he wants to go. There’s no doubt he does his best running over this surface, and his last two workouts indicate that he seems to be ready to fire his best shot.

The other logical horse is #3 SHARP AZTECA. He’s cruised to two straight wins since running a distant second behind Mor Spirit in the Met Mile, although it’s worth noting that he hasn’t beaten much in either of those races. However, I put him behind my top two because of the likely race shape. There’s other early speed signed on, including Mor Spirit’s stablemate, #7 CUPID. Sharp Azteca’s best race puts him right there, but in constructing a multi-race wager during cards like these, you need to take stands somewhere. As such, I’m leaving him off of most of my tickets.

I’m also against #10 PRACTICAL JOKE, who’ll likely get some play. In the defense of the multiple Grade 1 winner, though, it’s not his fault that he was caught between two Breeders’ Cup races. The Sprint’s six-furlong distance is a bit short for him, but this year’s Dirt Mile is a two-turn route, which he’s shown isn’t his best game. He could rally for a piece of it, but I’m looking elsewhere on top.

BREEDERS’ CUP JUVENILE TURF

If you’re constructing a Pick Four ticket, my advice is to take a stand somewhere. Why? Because, for my money, the Juvenile Turf is the most wide-open race of the entire two-day event, and I think you may need to hit the “ALL” button here. I wish I could tell you that I had some kind of confidence in something here. The truth is, I don’t, so instead, I’ll recommend two big prices that I feel merit consideration.

#3 SANDS OF MALI comes over from Europe, and he ran a clunker last time out in a Group 1 behind U S Navy Flag (who we’ll see in Saturday’s Juvenile on dirt). However, he was very sharp in two races before that, including one where he earned a 104 Timeform rating. There’s a very real chance his last-out effort was simply a bounce off a new career-best, and I like that he’s shown tactical speed. This race doesn’t appear to have a lot of early pace signed on, so that gives him a potential advantage if Flavien Prat gets him on or near the lead out of the gate. He’s 30-1 on the morning line, and I think that’s too big a price. If I play a contest on this card, chances are I’ll use him and hope for the best.

#4 CATHOLIC BOY, meanwhile, is 2-for-2 and pulled off a 12-1 upset in a Grade 3 last time out. Jonathan Thomas isn’t a household name, but he’s a former Todd Pletcher assistant who has won 30% of his starts this season. His local work on October 29th was very good, and further progression would make this 12-1 shot a major player.

BREEDERS’ CUP DISTAFF

Friday’s main event is the Distaff, and this could settle the races for several Eclipse Awards. #2 STELLAR WIND and #6 FOREVER UNBRIDLED are the leaders among older female horses, while #4 ABEL TASMAN, #5 ELATE, and #7 PARADISE WOODS could secure 3-year-old filly honors with a victory here.

Personally, I’m of the belief that this year’s group of 3-year-old fillies is subpar. Abel Tasman’s recent middle moves raise a big red flag, while Elate was bred up and down for the 10-furlong Alabama and didn’t beat much in the Beldame while running pretty slowly for the level. Of the 3-year-old fillies in this race, the only one I think has a significant shot is Paradise Woods, and that’s because of the race shape. There isn’t much other early speed here, and over a track that’s traditionally very kind to early speed, that one could be a formidable foe if she’s allowed to coast on an easy lead.

However, she’s not my top pick. That distinction goes to Stellar Wind, who has never lost at Del Mar. She’s 3-for-3 over this track and could sit an ideal stalking trip just off the early speed. I have a great deal of respect for Forever Unbridled, but she may be left with too much to do late given the race shape and track tendencies. With all things considered, I’m singling Stellar Wind and hoping she runs her usual Del Mar race.

PICK FOUR TICKET

$0.50 Pick Four: Race #6

R6: 2,6,11
R7: 6,8
R8: ALL
R9: 2

84 Bets, $42

My thinking here is that Stellar Wind, who is 5/2 on the morning line, almost certainly won’t go off above 3-1. If I’m alive going into the last leg, at worst, those are the odds I’ll get (given how wide-open the Juvenile Turf is). If a price comes in in the third leg and/or Orbolution wins the Juvenile Fillies Turf, I could potentially be alive to a nice, nice score.

There are other ways to make money on the card. For instance, the favorite in the Juvenile Fillies Turf is 7/2, which means exacta wagers could pay well if you’ve got a few horses to key in on. Additionally, if you can narrow down the Juvenile Turf to a few horses, playing doubles starting and ending there could be fruitful given the chaotic odds board we’re likely to see. Simply put, it’s a really good four-race sequence, and hopefully it sets the table for plenty of fireworks on Saturday.

Delta Downs Analysis, Selections, and Tickets: 10/18/17 (Opening Night)

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

Wednesday is opening night at Delta Downs, one of my favorite tracks. The fields are usually pretty large, the multi-race exotics pools are solid, and on top of that, track announcer Don Stevens is one of the nicest, most versatile people in racing. I drafted him in the first-ever fantasy simulcast team draft for a reason (hi, Don!).

I’ve put together a pair of Pick Four tickets for the card, and I found both sequences pretty tricky. That said, here’s how I’ll play them!

$0.50 Pick Four: Race #1

R1: 6
R2: ALL
R3: 3,4
R4: 1,5,8

60 Bets, $30

We start off with a single, and it’s not the type of single I usually play. #6 TAPSTER is 0-for-14 lifetime coming into this maiden race, but he’s been running against high-quality opposition for most of his career. His running lines are dotted with the names of several stakes horses, and he makes his first start for Karl Broberg, who’s one of the best in the game with new acquisitions. It’s a “hold your nose” single for me in some ways, but given the coverage I needed elsewhere, that’s the way things shook out.

Speaking of coverage, you’ll see that I’ve bought the second race, and for good reason. It’s a non-winners-of-two claimer, the type of race good friend Kurt Hoover refers to as “evil.” I did the math, and the 10 runners in the body of the field have lost a combined total of 206 races (if you want to add the two AE’s in there, that number rises to 237). I don’t have a clue who wins here, and hopefully, we get a price home to justify punching the “ALL” button.

I’m two-deep in the third. #3 LIBA looks strong for Broberg after winning first off the claim at Louisiana Downs, while #4 BEST GUESS has shown an affinity for Delta Downs and drops in class after two failed tries against allowance foes. Those two make the most sense to me in another race that’s drawn a full field of 10.

I’ll finish by going three-deep in a competitive claiming event. #5 COUCHE COUCHE figures to be favored, but he’s 0-for-3 at Delta and hasn’t won in a year and a half, so he’s no cinch. I want coverage, and I’ve found it with likely second choice #8 KEYSTONES STRIKE and live 8-1 shot #1 BLUE FORTY TWO, who’s notched three of his four career wins at Delta and gets top local rider Gerard Melancon. If you want to go even deeper, feel free. This isn’t an easy race, but I wanted to keep costs down a bit, so I settled on those three.

$0.50 Pick Four: Race #7

R7: 1,2,3
R8: 1,3,6,7
R9: 2,4,8
R10: 6,7

72 Bets, $36

Before we dive in, it’s worth noting that there’s a 50-cent Pick Five starting in the sixth. If you’re playing that, I think 8-1 shot #6 MISS SID N SAY is a must-use. She’s won her last two dirt starts in runaways, likes Delta, and will be a square price against what I think is a vulnerable favorite (#8 OH DEAR LORD is 0-for-her-last-10, and 3-2 is just too short to take against what turned out to be a solid field for the level).

Moving on, the late Pick Four starts with a pair of wide-open races. I’m three-deep in the seventh and four-deep in the eighth, and I hope that’s deep enough. I honestly can’t tell you who’ll be favored in each of those races, and if you’ve got deeper pockets or an additional single elsewhere, hitting the “ALL” button once or twice may not be a bad strategy.

The ninth features the latest matchup in a cool little rivalry. #2 I HOPE and #8 SOUTHERN WIND have locked up several times, and I’m using both horses. However, neither is my top pick. I don’t think there’s a ton of early speed signed on, so my focus is on #4 IDE STANG YOU, who’s got one way of going. She’ll be flying out of the gate and figures to lead them as long as she can, which could be a while if nobody attempts to go with her.

I had to alter my ticket considerably following the scratch of #8 DARYLSLITTLEENGINE in the tenth. He was a single for me, so I took a horse out of the first leg on my original ticket and settled for going two-deep in the finale. I’ll use #6 WHERE’S CAIN (who’s done some of his best running at Delta) and #7 UNITAS (who could sit a perfect stalking trip just off the speed).

Woodbine Analysis, Selections, and Tickets: Canadian International, E.P. Taylor Day (10/15/17)

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

Sunday is Canadian International Day at Woodbine, and while that turf marathon and its sister race, the E.P. Taylor, aren’t quite as big as they were a generation ago, the two Grade 1 affairs headline a stacked card with plenty of wagering opportunities. Longtime readers of mine know I’m a sucker for the 20-cent minimum bets on multi-race wagers, and I’ve got three such tickets ahead of Sunday’s card. Let’s get to it!

$0.20 Pick Five: Race #2

R2: 3,4,8,9
R3: 10
R4: 4,5,9
R5: 2,7,8,9
R6: 1,2,7

144 Bets, $28.80

The first of my three tickets comes in the early Pick Five. My strategy is to spread around one key single, which doubles as my best bet of the day.

We’ll start off in the second race, a tricky maiden claiming event. The two favorites, #3 RELEASETHE GLACKEN and #4 CRIMSON RING, both have major questions to answer. The former ran well last time out but doesn’t have much of a resume to speak of other than that effort, while the latter was bet against better horses last month and didn’t run a jump. I’ll use both, and I’m also going to throw in #8 LAILAS PRINCESS and #9 SHEEGWEEHA. Lailas Princess has a few sharp efforts sprinting on synthetic at this level, while Sheegweeha has improved in every start and could benefit from the outside draw.

My best bet of the day comes in the third race. This is a maiden race for 2-year-olds, and I’m all-in on #10 WHERE’S ANTHONY, who had a lot go wrong in his debut last month. He broke slowly and encountered plenty of traffic, but he still rallied to finish third, beaten less than three lengths. Improvement is logical at second asking, especially for a barn whose recent numbers with second-time starters are strong. Per DRF Formulator, trainer Scott Fairlie is 3-for-11 over the past two years with such runners, and if you only include races contested on the synthetic track, that number goes to 3-for-9. Long story short: If Where’s Anthony doesn’t win, I lose.

I’m chalk-heavy in the fourth race. #4 GIADA VEGAS will likely be favored, but she’s a type that finds ways to lose. I have to use her, but I’m also using #5 YOU’RE MINE and #9 SNIPPY. The former has run well three times for a strong local barn, while the latter took a big step forward at second asking and should be prominent early.

The fifth race is a maiden event for 2-year-old fillies, and I’m going pretty deep. #2 EESTI STAR and #8 MAXIXE will both take money, but their trainers’ horses often need a race or two to get going, so I wanted coverage. I found it with #7 LADY WITH CLASS and #9 SWEET SILENT SOUL. Lady With Class has two OK races to her credit, while Sweet Silent Soul goes out for a barn on a recent hot streak and could benefit from the outside draw.

If we’re still alive, we’ll look to score by going three-deep in the sixth. This is the Grade 2 Nearctic, and it’s drawn an interesting field of turf sprinters. It’s another race where I’m chalk-heavy. #7 COTAI GLORY is a European getting Lasix for the first time and is probably the one to beat, but #1 DOWSE’S BEACH and #2 WHITE FLAG are both in strong form and could win with their best efforts.

$0.20 Pick Four: Race #4

R4: 4,5,9
R5: 2,7,8,9
R6: 1,2,7
R7: 2,8

72 Bets, $14.40

The first three legs of the early Pick Four are the same as the last three legs of the early Pick Five. I’ll finish this wager off by using both fillies entered in the Grade 3 Ontario Derby. #8 HOLY HELENA returns to her preferred synthetic surface, on which she won this year’s Queen’s Plate, while #2 GRIZZEL has run up against some very good horses and is 2-for-2 on Woodbine’s synthetic footing. I think one of them beats the boys, and hopefully, we’re cashing after it happens.

$0.20 Pick Four: Race #9

R9: 3,4,6,8
R10: 4,8,9,10
R11: 4,9,10
R12: 5,8,11

144 Bets, $28.80

There’s also a late Pick Five wager that starts in the eighth, but in all honesty, I couldn’t put together a ticket that I felt comfortable playing. That race is not easy, and I couldn’t narrow down the rest of the ticket. As such, I’ll bypass that wager for this one, which boasts a guaranteed pool of $250,000.

As you can see, I’ve got plenty of coverage in all four legs, and the opening leg, the Grade 1 E.P. Taylor, may be the most wide-open race on the entire card. #6 NEZWAAH and #8 BLOND ME both have big chances coming over from Europe, and if the former runs back to her Group 1 score two back, she probably wins. However, #3 QUIDURA and #4 RAINHA DA BATERIA both love this turf course, and I need to use them. The latter seems like a big overlay at 10-1 on the morning line, especially since she hasn’t run a bad race in her last six starts, three of which came at the Grade 1 level. However, I’m against #7 RAIN GODDESS, who will likely take money shipping in for Aidan O’Brien. Her Timeform numbers simply don’t stack up to the Euros that will surround her in the starting gate, and I’ve spread elsewhere, so I’ll try to beat her (even though it wouldn’t be stunning if she went off favored in this race).

The 10th race is the Canadian International, and this is another event where the European contingent looks tough. I’m using all three of them: #4 IDAHO, #9 ERUPT, and #10 CHEMICAL CHANGE, who may be underbet despite running pretty much the exact same race every time out and getting Lasix for the first time. I’ll also throw in #8 MESSI, who was very unlucky in the Grade 1 Northern Dancer. He could’ve won that race with a better trip, and I’ll give him one more shot.

I’m three-deep in each of the last two races, and I’m using a few prices. My top pick in the 11th is #10 SEVENCOMINGOUT, who tried tougher company last time out after a solid debut. He’s back at the right level and will be tough if he runs back to the September 16th effort. I’m using #4 THIRD MAN IN as well, although he’s developing a habit of collecting smaller checks. Most notably, though, I’m throwing in #9 RASTA MAN, who’s been off a while but has been working well and has a few previous efforts that would fit in with this group. He’s 20-1 on the morning line, and that could be a knockout horse in this sequence.

We’ll finish with a claiming event going seven furlongs, and while I’m using one of the likely favorites, I’m also throwing in two big prices. #8 INCREDIBLE DEE has run well in each of his past two starts at this level and route, but his lone win came with a perfect trip, so he’s no cinch. Meanwhile, #5 WILSHIRE STAR (15-1) and #11 SPANISH EXPRESS (20-1) were must-uses for me, especially at their likely prices. Wilshire Star has run his best races at this route, while Spanish Express is an example of one of my favorite angles, the “toss two” theory. That occurs when a horse runs a bad race, goes to the sidelines, and needs his return race as a tightener. If you go back to the races he ran in May of this year, Spanish Express more than fits here, and he could be a massive price on the tote board.

Santa Anita Analysis, Selections, and Tickets: 10/9/17

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

Since it’s a day off for me and I’ve recovered from a brief bout with the Arkansas Flu (given to me by one of two visiting friends who crashed at my humble Los Angeles abode this past week), I’ve opted to take a ride inland to Santa Anita for their special Monday program (plus dollar sodas and hot dogs!). As such, I’ve written up a few multi-race tickets for those of you playing the races in Arcadia, and here they are!

$0.50 Pick Five: Race #1

R1: 10
R2: 2,7,8
R3: 4,7
R4: 1,4,6,8
R5: 5,6,7,9

96 Bets, $48

This is a very tough Pick Five, and if you’re playing on any sort of a budget, you need to take a stand somewhere. I opted to do so right off the bat in the opener, a $25,000 claimer on the turf. #10 CURLY’S WATERFRONT showed some real talent as a 2-year-old, when he ran fourth in a pair of stakes races. I’m not holding his most recent race against him, as that came off a long layoff going shorter than he probably wants. He drops down in class, and I think he’ll take a sizable step forward.

The second leg is a $12,500 claimer on the dirt, and your likely favorite, #7 STIR FRY, hasn’t run in more than a year. She could win, but I needed coverage elsewhere. #2 BESIDES THE POINT comes back to dirt and drops down in class, while #8 FLOWER HEART DEER ran pretty well two back and gets reacquainted with Evin Roman.

I took a stand in the third against horses coming out of the September 1st race at Del Mar. That was a very slow race, and I just don’t want any part of the ones who ran in it. #4 BOSS MOVE and #7 TWISTED ROSIE were both impressive second-out winners, and this doesn’t seem like an imposing spot in which to try winners for the first time, so I’ll use them both.

I’m four-deep in each of the last two legs, neither of which are easy to handicap. #8 ZURI CHOP will probably be favored in the fourth, but he’s 0-for-11 at Santa Anita, including many tries at this level. I’ll use him, but am by no means confident (especially at his likely price). My top pick is #4 TAIMA THE HAWK, who has several strong races down the hill against higher-class opponents. 8-1 is a very square price on a horse like that, and I think he’s got a big shot. I’ll also throw in #1 YES YES YES and #6 AMERICAN LEAGUE, both of whom have also shown ability coming down the hill.

We finish with a wide-open 2-year-old race. #7 PADDOCK PICK was beaten less than three lengths in a live race at Del Mar and may go favored, but this isn’t an easy spot. Fellow second-time starter #9 SPANISH BAY is bred to be a good one and should improve at second asking, while #5 TALENT SCOUT is a Bob Baffert firster with a good work tab and #6 BEER TAP has too many flashy drills at Santa Anita and San Luis Rey to be 12-1. I think this sequence has the potential to pay very well, and hopefully, we can get this $48 ticket home.

$0.50 Pick Four: Race #6

R6: 1,6,8
R7: 2,6,9,11
R8: 5
R9: 3,4,5,10,11,12,13

84 Bets, $42

This ticket likely won’t cost the full $42, given that #13 GOODTHINGSTAKETIME is an also-eligible in the ninth and needs luck to draw in (if she does, chances are it’s because another horse we used scratched). That said, my thinking here is to build around my best bet of the day, which comes in the eighth.

I’ll start by going three-deep in the Zuma Beach. #6 COUNT ALEXANDER is my top pick coming down from Woodbine, where he chased a very talented horse (Untamed Domain) that will take money in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf. He was beaten just two lengths that day and merits respect here. I’ll also use #1 RESTRAINEDVENGEANCE, who freaked last time out for Val Brinkerhoff, and #8 MY BOY JACK, who ran into Encumbered twice and gets the services of Kent Desormeaux in this spot.

I’m four-deep in the seventh, a tricky maiden claimer. #11 WILLOWS BABE may be favored adding blinkers for Richard Baltas, but it isn’t like she’s set the world on fire to this point, so I want coverage. I’ll get that with #2 INNYMINNIEMINEYMOE, #6 FLY AS A FALCON, and #9 DREAM PROOF, the last of which is a big price. She showed significant zip last time out in her second start, drops down in class, and figures to be prominent early.

My best bet of the day, as mentioned, comes in the eighth, where I will be stunned if we get 5-1 odds on #5 VIBE. At first glance, his 4-for-13 record doesn’t look exceptional. However, if you focus solely on dirt route races, he’s 4-for-8, and one of those losses came in the Grade 3 Ohio Derby, where he had no business running against the likes of Irap and Girvin. He loves Santa Anita, beat slightly-higher-level competition last time out, and looks like the one to beat if he runs his usual race in this spot. Here’s hoping we get the morning line price, but 5/2 or 3-1 is probably more accurate.

If you’ve got a bigger budget than I do, you may want to punch the “ALL” button in the Surfer Girl, which doubles as the Monday finale. I’m going at least six-deep, maybe seven-deep if the aforementioned #13 GOODTHINGSTAKETIME draws in. My top pick, though, is the other Leonard Powell trainee, #11 FATALE BERE. She flashed plenty of talent in three starts overseas and chased a very good filly named Mission Impassible last time out in a one-mile stakes race. The post position isn’t ideal, but she gets Lasix for the first time and would be tough if she brings her European form to the Santa Anita turf course. That said, I have very little conviction in this race, and my advice is to go as deep as you can.