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2017 Belmont Stakes Day Picks, Tickets, and Analysis (6/10/17)

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

With very little in the way of significant storylines, this year’s Belmont is most appealing not to the casual fan, or to the sports fan tuning in to see a Triple Crown attempt, but to the hardened horseplayer who goes in search of the elusive property known as value. With a field of 12 and no heavy favorite, this is an instance where that can certainly be found.

The question is, how do you find it, and what kind of knocks are you willing to forgive? Morning line favorite Irish War Cry’s best race is probably good enough to win this, but when he’s bad, he’s VERY bad, and he appeared to be going best of all with three furlongs left in the Derby before hitting a wall going into the stretch. Lookin at Lee is an honest, hard-trying horse who will be the only thoroughbred this year to run in all three Triple Crown races, but he hasn’t won in a LONG time, and deep closers seldom win the Belmont. Meanwhile, the saga involving Japanese invader Epicharis took a weird turn earlier this week, when it was revealed he’s battling an ailment in one of his feet, and he was scratched Saturday morning.

My top pick involves some forgiving, but there’s also plenty of nice things to say about him. That’s Tapwrit, who will attempt to give trainer Todd Pletcher his second win in a Triple Crown race this season and third career triumph in the Belmont. He’s by Tapit, who has sired the winner of this race in two of the last three seasons, and he runs like a horse who will appreciate as much distance as possible. When last seen, he was a non-threatening sixth in the Kentucky Derby, but he had plenty of trouble in that race, not unlike his run two back in the Blue Grass.

He’s by no means a top pick I’m in love with, but when Tapwrit’s right, he’s very good. He’s one of four horses I’ll be using in multi-race exotics, as I’ll also be including Gormley, Irish War Cry, and Senior Investment. Gormley has trained like a Belmont horse for months, while Irish War Cry’s prior strong efforts can’t be ignored and Senior Investment seems to be getting better and better with experience and added distance.

The Belmont anchors a phenomenal card in New York, one that features ample wagering opportunities and lots of star power. I’ve got three multi-race tickets below, as well as analysis, and without further ado…

$0.50 Pick Five: Race #1

R1: 6,7
R2: 3,7
R3: 5
R4: 1,3,5,7,8
R5: 5

20 bets, $10

This Pick Five is, essentially, a Pick Four. Songbird makes her 2017 debut in the payoff leg, the Grade 1 Ogden Phipps, and she towers over her competition. If I can get there and potentially turn a $10 investment into, say, a 10-1 price on Songbird (assuming the Pick Five pays $110), I’ll gladly do that.

Thebigfundamental will be a fairly short price in the opener off of two solid outings, but I couldn’t ignore Wild About Deb, who likely needed his last start off a long layoff. His best is quite good, as evidenced by three top-three finishes in graded stakes company (most notably a third-place effort behind Connect in the Pennsylvania Derby), and 12-1 is way too big a price.

I’ll take a similar approach in the second leg, the Easy Goer. West Coast seems like a solid favorite, and it definitely helps that he does not need the lead, as this race seems loaded with early speed. However, second-time starter Wicked Macho intrigues me. He didn’t have it easy in his debut at Churchill Downs, where he prevailed by a head over a next-out winner, and he’s worked lights-out since then for trainer Mark Casse. This is an aggressive spot, but there’s plenty to suggest this horse could be ready for the challenge. A quick look at his female family shows third dam Stick to Beauty, a stakes-winning blue hen whose presence is felt in the female families of Grade 1 winners Dayjur, Maplejinsky, Point of Entry, Violence, Tale of Ekati, and Pine Island.

The Brooklyn struck me as a two-horse race before the scratch of Send It In, which means Tu Brutus will be a very short price. I can’t go against him, despite Gary Contessa’s subpar record in graded stakes races on dirt in the past five years (he’s 0-for-28). Meanwhile, the fourth race of the sequence is the Grade 1 Acorn, and I spread out. Abel Tasman merits respect, for sure, but I can’t help thinking she may want more ground and/or two turns. She got a dream setup in the Kentucky Oaks, and this is a very solid group (even after the scratch of Tequilita).

That leads us to Songbird, whose lone defeat came in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Distaff. Not only does she tower over this field on talent, but she also figures to benefit from the pace scenario, which is very light on early speed. This doesn’t figure to be a Pick Five payoff that’ll set records, but again, if I can get to Songbird and treat it like a win bet with enhanced odds, I’ll be very happy.

$1 Grand Slam: Race #7

R7: 7,8
R8: 1,5
R9: 5,8
R10: 3,4,7

24 bets, $24

For those not familiar with this wager, the Grand Slam is a bet where at least one of your horses in each of the first three legs must finish third or better. You then get paid if a horse you play in the last leg wins, and you can build up winning combinations along the way. For instance, this ticket I’m playing could potentially be alive for an $8 valuation to three horses in the Manhattan if each of the horses I use finishes in the top three of their respective races.

I don’t play the Grand Slam much, but cards like Saturday’s are good times to do so. Given all of the possible combinations, this will likely pay handsomely, especially if some favorites finish off the board.

American Anthem figures to be favored in the Woody Stephens, and I’m using him, but my top pick is Wild Shot. Wild Shot was on the Kentucky Derby trail for a while, but has shown to be much better in races contested around one turn. This was affirmed on Derby Day, when the son of Trappe Shot rated behind fast fractions and rolled home clear by four lengths in the Grade 3 Pat Day Mile. A similar setup could present itself here, as there’s lots of early speed signed on.

I’m going against morning line favorite Roca Rojo in the eighth, the Grade 1 Just a Game. I fail to see why she should be favored over horses like Dickinson (whose recent win streak includes a Grade 1 win over the brilliant Lady Eli) and Celestine (last year’s runaway winner who’s 2-for-2 in 2017). I’ll use Roca Rojo in the Pick Four for security, but here, I’ll stick with the other two I’ve mentioned.

Sharp Azteca is my best bet of the day not named Songbird. There doesn’t seem to be much early speed alongside him in the Met Mile, and I think he could shake loose and roll home. However, a longshot intrigues me underneath, and for that reason, I had to also use Tom’s Ready. His return off a long layoff was quite good, and his one race here at Belmont was a win in last year’s Woody Stephens. If someone goes with Sharp Azteca early and provokes a pace meltdown, or if Tom’s Ready simply improves in his second start of the year, I think this 15-1 shot stands a big chance of hitting the board and upping the potential payout.

Finally, I’ll go three-deep in the Manhattan to close things out. Time Test is 5-1 on the morning line but may be significantly less than that come post time. His European form is extremely sharp, and he likely needed his last race, which came off a 10-month layoff over a very wet turf course he probably didn’t care for. I’ll also use Dixie winner World Approval and Turf Classic winner Divisidero, the latter of whom could benefit if Beach Patrol, World Approval, and a few others set a fast pace.

$0.50 Pick Four: Race #8

R8: 1,2,5
R9: 5
R10: 3,4,7
R11: 2,3,7,8

36 bets, $18

I think you can play a small ticket into a big pool and, potentially, come back with a nice score. I did include Roca Rojo simply because the ticket was pretty skinny elsewhere, and I singled Sharp Azteca. There aren’t any huge prices here, but the field sizes and guaranteed pool are such that, if this gets home, we could see a payout in the $200-$300 range. For an $18 investment, that’s just fine!

Belmont Stakes Eve Analysis, Selections, and Tickets (6/9/17)

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

Friday is Belmont Stakes Eve, and it presents many wagering opportunities. I’ve got a Pick Five, a late Pick Four, and two spot plays, which I’ll lay out below!

$0.50 Pick Five: Race #1

R1: 8
R2: 1,5,6,7
R3: 1,4,5,6
R4: 2,5,10
R5: 5,7

96 bets, $48

I’ll start things off with a single. Bobby On Fleek is 2-for-2 in non-stakes races, and I’m completely throwing out the Pat Day Mile, where clearly something went wrong. This is a much softer spot, and if you’re opting to play a budget-conscious ticket, you need to single somewhere. As such, I’ll take my stand in the opening leg.

I’ll spread in the second and third legs. She’s Dreamin is my top pick in the second given her impressive debut, but I’ll also throw in several others, including Rock Ave. Road. She’s 12-1, but finished just a half-length behind She’s Dreamin last time out, and that was her first start since November. Meanwhile, I’ll try to beat Zennor in the third, as I think he wants two turns, not one. I don’t think there’s much speed signed on, so likely second choice Fox Rules could get brave on the front end.

The fourth race is a tough maiden event. Marshall Plan will likely be favored off a near-miss in his debut at Keeneland, but there are a few others that merit consideration. Mr Classical is a regally-bred first-time starter whose second dam is Grade 1 winner Flute, while Irst likely needed his race in April off a long layoff. His debut was a sharp second behind an eventual graded stakes winner, and his dam is a half to a pair of Grade 1 winners (including strong sire Arch). Finally, I’ll use the two likely favorites in the Tremont to close things out. Direct Dial and Salmanazar were both impressive winners over good groups at Keeneland, and I’ll gamble that a repeat effort by either runner would be good enough to win this.

Race #6: #3 Brianbakescookies (10-1)

The sixth is a turf route contested at 1 3/8 miles. The likely favorite is Rocketry, and I don’t think that one is terribly-meant after a horrible trip last month. However, there’s very little early speed signed on, with the possible exception of my spot play, who’s a juicy 10-1 on the morning line.

Brianbakescookies returned off a long layoff and faded going shorter. That race proved to be a solid one when the runner-up came back to win at next asking, and this barn has excelled with horses removing blinkers. Joel Rosario coming aboard is another plus, and I think Brianbakescookies could sit a dream trip while setting very slow early fractions.

Race #7: #3 Bricks and Mortar (7/2)

Gulfstream Park’s turf course tends to play very fast. As such, it’s not ideal for a horse (let alone a first-time starter) to rate several lengths behind a :49 and change half-mile. Not only did Bricks and Mortar do that, he rallied wide and won going away.

There’s obviously the possibility of a bounce in this spot, and this field is a solid one. However, Bricks and Mortar is bred to be a very good horse, and I think he could show further improvement at second asking. As such, I think 7/2 is a very fair price.

$0.50 Pick Four: Race #8

R8: 8
R9: 1,2,6,8
R10: ALL
R11: 9

52 bets, $26

I’ll start and end my ticket with singles, which allows me to get plenty of coverage in the middle. Whitmore will be very tough to beat in the True North. There’s a ton of early speed signed on, and he should be rolling late at a short price. Additionally, By the Moon loves Belmont Park, having won three of four local starts. Her lone defeat at Big Sandy came in the 2015 Acorn, where she did lots of the dirty work before finishing a close second to multiple Grade 1 winner Curalina. She’s not a standout, per se, but this is a situation where many horses all figure similarly behind her, and if she doesn’t win, I don’t know who does.

The middle two legs, meanwhile, are much tougher. I’m going four-deep in the New York, and if Suffused is 6-1 at post time, I think she’s worth a win bet. She hasn’t finished worse than second in her last seven starts, and there should be plenty of pace to set up for her late kick. Meanwhile, I have no idea how to even begin to decipher the two-mile Belmont Gold Cup. I simply couldn’t find a way to narrow down the field, so I punched the “ALL” button, and I’m hoping to get a price home (especially since I’m starting and ending the sequence with short-priced favorites).

Belmont Park, Santa Anita, and Penn National Analysis & Tickets (6/3/17)

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

BELMONT PARK

$0.50 Pick Five: Race #1

R1: 5
R2: 1,7,8
R3: 4,6
R4: ALL
R5: 6,7

96 bets, $48

I’m going against a favorite right away at Belmont Park. The field is not great, and if My Uncle Al channels his California form for new trainer Robertino Diodoro, he probably wins. However, the lack of a published workout since his most recent start is a big red flag to me, so I’m looking elsewhere. I don’t think there’s much speed in the race, and that leads me to likely second choice Correjon. He took a step forward last time out with the addition of blinkers, and I’m hoping he gets brave on the front end against a less-than-inspiring group.

The second race is tough due to a similar lack of early speed. I don’t love the May 10th race many in here exit, so while I used Violet Blue and Blenheim Palace, I also threw in Camisole on the rail, who may benefit from the marathon distance she tries in this spot. Brewing and Monster Mash both drop down in the third, and I’m using both. I prefer the former at a slightly better price, though, as he could work out a prime stalking trip just off the plentiful speed that seems to exist on paper.

I bought the fourth race because I did not have a clue (hey, at least I’m honest), and I’ll look to close this out by using River Date and John’s Island in the payoff leg. River Date seems like the lone speed on paper, but John’s Island goes out for a barn that is very solid with new acquisitions after being claimed following an April win at Aqueduct.

$0.50 Pick Four: Race #7

R7: ALL
R8: 3,4,6,10
R9: 7,9
R10: 8

80 bets, $40

We have another “I do not have a clue” race to kick things off, so hopefully we get a price home in the first leg. The eighth isn’t much easier, and it may be the best betting race on the card. My top pick is Summer of Joy, who switches surfaces and drops down in class, but it’s far from a situation where I absolutely love the horse.

I narrowed things down a bit in the Pennine Ridge, which goes as the ninth race. There’s potential for a major speed duel between Oscar Performance and Secretary at War, so I used Ticonderoga and Good Samaritan, both of whom would love such a setup given their closing styles.

We finish the sequence, though, with my best bet of the day. Starstruck Kitten is a full sibling to Bobby’s Kitten and Camelot Kitten, among others, and his debut was far from bad. He was wide turning for home, but was beaten less than three lengths. The drop into the maiden claiming ranks may raise a few eyebrows, but the Ramseys have said they are downsizing their racing operation, so this doesn’t seem like a panicky drop. Additionally, this does not appear to be the strongest field for the level, and if Starstruck Kitten improves at second asking, I think he’ll be very tough to beat. He’s 5/2 on the morning line, and I’ll be very happy if we get that price come post time.

SANTA ANITA

$0.50 Pick Five: Race #1

R1: 5
R2: 3,4
R3: 4,6,7
R4: 3,5,6
R5: 1,2,4

54 bets, $27

I’ll start things off with a single. Kenzou’s Rhythm drops back down to the right level following a failed stakes try last time out. Before that, he reeled off three in a row, including a win two back at a similar level over what was probably a better field than he faces here. As such, I’m singling the 8/5 morning line favorite to kick off the Pick Five.

I think the second is a two-horse race between 6/5 favorite Individual Design and 9/5 second choice Trinitys Turn, so I’m using them both before going three-deep in each of the last three legs. I’m using the three likely favorites in the third race, but my price play of the day comes in the fourth.

Yes, Algorhythmic has won two in a row coming down the hill, and Jeremy’s Legacy has a ton of back class. Either can win, but don’t sleep on Lindeza, who’s a square 12-1 on the morning line. Her most recent effort was a return off of a 15-month layoff, and she didn’t break well while being stuck with the dreaded rail post at this route. However, despite being forced to run well off the pace and being hounded by fellow rivals turning for home, she didn’t quit and was only beaten 1 3/4 lengths for third. I think there are a lot of positive things to take from that effort, and her most recent workout was sharp enough to make me think an improved performance is on the horizon here. Getting off the rail will certainly help, as will a clean start.

Finally, I’ll use three short prices in the fifth to close things out. Privy has worked well for John Sadler and may not have to be much to beat this group, but Lostintranzlation comes back to dirt while dropping in class and Gypsy Treasure adds blinkers after an encouraging debut. There may be some very short prices in this sequence, but if Lindeza shakes things up in the fourth, we could still be rewarded handsomely.

$0.50 Pick Four: Race #6

R6: 1,3,7
R7: 3,4,7
R8: 1,2
R9: 3,4,7

54 bets, $27

Right away, we have a beatable favorite in the first leg. I used Quality Line, but this appears to be a race without much early speed, save for Awesome Image to the outside. Gary Stevens riding Scatter the Moon is also worth noting, especially given that one’s eye-catching debut at Turf Paradise.

The seventh is the Shoemaker Mile, and I’m betting on a pace meltdown. Heart to Heart and What a View both want the lead, and my hope is that their duel will set things up for one of three closers to fly home late for the winner’s share of the purse and an all-expenses-paid trip to this fall’s Breeders’ Cup Mile. Of the three I used, I like Bolo most. He was probably too close to the pace last time out, and this trip should be more to his liking.

The Beholder Mile will only have three starters. I used Vale Dori and Stellar Wind and opted to leave Finest City off my ticket. I just think that one wants one turn, not two, although I can’t fault the connections for trying this spot (especially given the short field!).

Finally, we’ll end the card with a downhill turf sprint. Conquest Smartee and Tina’s Exchange will likely be the top two betting choices, but this race also features Aussie Fox, a first-time starter from the Carla Gaines barn. The dam of this 3-year-old colt is graded stakes winner Foxysox, which makes this colt a half to multiple stakes-winning mare Curlin’s Fox. She’s run some very strong races coming down the hill, and given the pedigree, I had to use her little brother.

PENN NATIONAL

$0.50 Pick Four: Race #6

R6: 4,7
R7: 2,4,7
R8: 4,5
R9: 7,8

24 bets, $12

I’m not spending a ton of money on this ticket, because I think there’s a real chance it doesn’t pay a whole lot. Having said that, given the likely pool and the stakes races that are involved, this is still a sequence worth playing.

Adorable Miss will be tough in the Penn Oaks, but I had to use Party Boat, who comes in on an upward numbers trend and won a $100,000 stakes race last time out. I was tempted to take a stand against Richard’s Boy in the Pennsylvania Governor’s Cup, as I’m far from crazy about the two-week turnaround (especially since he traveled back to California following his win in Maryland). Still, the five-furlong distance fits him like a glove, so I couldn’t leave him off the ticket. I used likely second choice Rainbow Heir, and I’m also using Take Cover, who was a price play for me last time out at Pimlico. He ran a nice race that day, flying late to be beaten less than two lengths by Richard’s Boy. He won this race last year, and he’ll likely be running well late here at a nice price.

If Matt King Coal makes the lead in the Mountainview, I think he’ll be very difficult to beat. However, if a pace duel ensues, hard-knocker Page McKenney stands to benefit. This horse has run 47 times in his career, and he’s hit the board on 36 occasions. The four-legged ATM could sit a dream stalking trip behind a fast pace, so I threw him in.

Finally, I’m going two-deep in the Penn Mile. Big Score is probably the best horse in the race, and he’s an easy horse to root for given the modest pedigree and his running style. However, I also used Frostmourne, who’s improved in every start and makes his second run off the bench here. The presence of Irad Ortiz, Jr., is a big plus, and he could sit a perfect trip.

A Letter to Zenyatta and Ziconic Fans, Plus Santa Anita Analysis for 5/27/17

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

Dear Zenyatta/Ziconic Fans,

There’s something you should know before reading the rest of this letter, and, by extension, my analysis into Saturday’s card at Santa Anita. I am NOT a Zenyatta hater.

I have a deep respect for what the great mare was able to do. I was among the Hall of Fame voters that put her and fellow legendary female Rachel Alexandra in on the very first ballot. Furthermore, in an age where horse racing is in desperate need of stars, few are hoping harder that Zenyatta’s offspring can run than I am.

Ziconic is no bum, and part of his inability to win one yet hasn’t been his fault. He ran into eventual multiple graded stakes winner Dalmore twice in early-2016, and then, in his fourth lifetime start, he was beaten into submission by a little-known gray horse named Arrogate, who would later emerge as the top dirt horse in the world.

However, this is where I urge you all to breathe very deeply, because here’s where the gambler in me comes out.

It is my belief that any money wagered on Ziconic to win Saturday’s finale at Santa Anita…is dumb money.

(pausing to allow objects to be thrown in my general direction)

OK, done now? Good.

Anyway, here’s my logic. Ziconic’s fatal flaw throughout his career has been an inability to break well from the starting gate. In his six starts, he’s been closer than eight lengths behind at the first point of call just once. With that in mind, the rail draw is a huge problem. Not only will Ziconic likely concede considerable ground from the word “go” in Saturday’s finale, but he’ll probably have to check back sharply while doing so. Furthermore, the race itself has positively ZERO known early pace to speak of (more on this later). If you subscribe to the notion that pace makes the race, Ziconic is up against it, and would be even with a better post position.

Consider all of these facts, and then consider Ziconic’s likely price at the betting windows. A 3-1 morning line is conservative, given the Zenyatta fans that follow the horse and will bet with their hearts at the windows. My guess is that Ziconic goes off somewhere between 8/5 and 2-1, and I simply cannot endorse a win bet on a slow-breaking closer in a paceless race contested on a surface that is often very kind to early speed at that short of a mutuel.

I had a Twitter follower comment once that wagering on Ziconic was akin to placing flowers on the Zenyatta statue in the paddock at Santa Anita. I’m not heartless. I get that argument. However, as a horseplayer, I wake up every day in search of the elusive property known as value. When Ziconic (and before him, Cozmic One) is hammered at the windows to the point of being a monstrous underlay, value exists with the rest of the field.

If Ziconic blooms at a later age and turns into a star, nobody will be happier than yours truly. I work in social media, after all, and that story would play REALLY well. With that in mind, he’ll likely be bet like he towers over the field he faces Saturday. The facts show that he doesn’t.

Best wishes,
Andrew

(braces for a social media backlash of epic proportions)

—

$0.50 Pick Five: Race #1, Santa Anita

R1: 3,6
R2: 2,4,6,7,8,10
R3: 6
R4: 2,4
R5: 1,6

48 bets, $24

This Pick Five ticket (which also includes the skeleton of a $12 early Pick Four ticket that begins in the second race) is built around the singling of Stormy Liberal in the Grade 3 Daytona. The Peter Miller trainee has four wins and two seconds in his last six starts, and has won three in a row going down the hill. The far outside post is a huge plus, and I think he’ll be tough to beat in that short field.

The other legs, though, are not easy. If One I’m Running To channels his 2-year-old form, he likely wins the opener comfortably, but coming off a long layoff and running for a $12,500 tag after thumping $50,000 maiden claimers last fall is a big red flag. As such, I also used Bitte, whose last race is a throwout given his slow start. A repeat of his races two and three back would make him a major player.

The second race is a mess, so I spread there before singling Stormy Liberal in the third leg (if you’ve got the budget to hit the “ALL” button, go ahead; I opted to keep the cost of the ticket down a bit). I settled on only using two horses in the fourth. Honor and Courage may be the only speed horse in the race, while Acker was a solid second in his debut and has the pedigree to love a two-turn route of ground. Finally, I was tempted to single Lady Eli in the Grade 1 Gamely, but I also had to use Avenge, who may be the race’s lone early speed horse. The latter has been working well, and all signs point to a big performance.

$0.50 Pick Four: Race #6, Santa Anita

R6: 3,4,8,9
R7: 3,4,8,9
R8: 1,2
R9: 5,10

64 bets, $32

Given the guaranteed pool and the wide-open fields, this is a Pick Four that could pay very generously. I spread in the first two races, and several horses I used are fairly big prices on the morning line.

The sixth is an optional claimer that looks much more like a stakes race. Taman Guard seems like the horse to beat, and when he’s on his game, he’s very good. However, he hasn’t run in nine months, and the post position isn’t great, so I added some more coverage. Texas Two Step should improve with the re-addition of blinkers, Boy Howdy’s two races this season for red-hot trainer Bill Spawr have been solid, and don’t overlook Pioneerof the West. He’s 20-1 on the line, and while he comes in off a long layoff, his best race would be competitive in this spot. Vladimir Cerin can win with horses coming in off this kind of a freshening, and he’d be a knockout horse.

I’m using the same numbers in the second leg, the Grade 2 Monrovia. Illuminant and Enola Gray merit respect, but Watch This Cat gets off the dreaded rail (which hurt her badly last time out against several rivals that also show up here), and Anita Partner has crossed under the wire first on four straight occasions, three of which have come in races contested at this route.

I’m going against Midnight Storm in the Grade 1 Gold Cup at Santa Anita. There seems to be a lot of early speed signed on, and 10 furlongs may be just a hair further than he wants to go. American Freedom makes his second start off the layoff for Bob Baffert, while Follow Me Crev is in good form and should get plenty of pace to run at. If Midnight Storm wins, I lose, but if one of those two horses can beat him, many tickets go up in smoke, and I stand to benefit from it.

Finally, we come to the nightcap. This is the Ziconic race, and I’ll try to beat him with two horses, one of which is his stablemate. Oregon seems like the horse to beat based on his last-out effort. He didn’t get a great trip that day, but rallied to finish second in his first start around two turns. His race down the hill two back suggests he may have a bit more tactical speed than he showed in his most recent outing, and I also like the May 20th workout, which was sixth-fastest of 67 at the distance that morning. I’m also going to use Ample Sufficiency, who may very well be the speed in this race by default. He was 0-for-7 overseas, but he was beaten just a length in a Group 2 as a 2-year-old, and he gets Lasix for the first time in his U.S. debut. If Tyler Baze is aggressive out of the gate, this newcomer could lead them a long way.

Santa Anita/Charles Town Pick Four Analyses: 4/22/17

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

SANTA ANITA

BONUS SELECTION: #2 Banze No Oeste, Race #1 (3-1)

We start off the Saturday card with a $32,000 claimer going down the hill, and Banze No Oeste has a number of things in his favor. It’s his second start off a layoff, it’s his first outing since being gelded, and he drops down in class off an effort that wasn’t so bad. He probably needed the March 4th race after a long break, and a glance at his 2016 running lines indicates plenty of affinity for this course. I think 3-1 is a very fair price, and I’ll be happy if we get it.

LATE PICK FOUR

R7: 1,2,4,7,8
R8: 1
R9: 1,2,5,9
R10: 3,5,11

60 bets, $30

This Pick Four ticket is built around the single of #1 Collected in the eighth, the Grade 2 Californian. Every other leg of this sequence is very challenging, and if you have another single elsewhere in the sequence, punching the “ALL” button in one of the other legs may not be a bad idea.

The one longshot I think you need to throw on your tickets runs in the finale. It’s #3 Red Lightning, a first-time starter from the barn of William Morey. Morey’s record with first-time starters isn’t the greatest, but the worktab shows that this son of Midshipman has plenty of speed, and that’s no accident. His dam, the Stormy Atlantic mare She Too, also threw a horse by the name of Its Me Mom, who won several stakes races at sprint distances. The presence of Kent Desormeaux is a plus, and we’re certainly getting a juicy price at 8-1 on the morning line.

CHARLES TOWN

ALL-STAKES PICK FOUR

R9: 1,2,4,9
R10: 2,4,6
R11: 1,5
R12: 5,8,9

72 bets, $36

It’s Charles Town Classic Day, and that means an ultra-challenging all-stakes Pick Four sequence. That’s reflected in the structure of this ticket, which boasts no singles. Hopefully, we can earn part of the juicy $100,000 guaranteed pool.

I wanted to single #1 Stanford in the Charles Town Classic. He’s the defending champion, and his proven ability to handle the bullring track setup is a big plus. However, I had to also use #5 Imperative, who also has a win in this race on his resume and could get an ideal setup. His owner has entered two others in this race, and both have early speed. Imperative could be in a great position to pick up the pieces late.