Travers Day | Andrew Champagne

SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll for August 23rd, 2025 (TRAVERS DAY)

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,140.50

It would be easy to remember Hall of Fame jockey Ron Turcotte, who passed away Friday, for his rides on Secretariat. One could also recall the races where he rode classic winners Riva Ridge and Tom Rolfe, or his time aboard Hall of Famers like Damascus, Northern Dancer, Shuvee, and Dahlia.

What’s more important, though, is to appreciate how he persevered following the end of his riding career. He fell at Belmont Park in 1978, and his injuries confined him to a wheelchair for the rest of his life. However, he spent most of the next 47 years as one of racing’s best ambassadors, and raised plenty of money for causes such as the Permanently Disabled Jockeys Fund.

On this Travers Day, by all means think back to when Ron Turcotte was on top of the world. The more rewarding thing, though, is to value him continuing to show up at a time when a lot of people would’ve hid from the world. There’s a big, big lesson to be learned there.

FRIDAY’S RESULTS: My best bet of the day, Systemic Change, rallied from last to first in the seventh to ensure a second straight winning day in this space. My $40 investment returned $195 ($117 from a $30 win bet, $78 from a $5 exacta with runner-up Margin of Air).

SATURDAY’S PLAY: I can’t make my editor wait until the Travers, but I will save my action for the 11th. That’s the Grade 1 Ballerina, where I really like #9 HOPE ROAD. I’ll keep it simple with a $50 win bet on the Bob Baffert trainee. As an aside, if you want to see how I’d spend a $100 bankroll, check out the Notorious OTB podcast, where Chase Sessoms, Barry Spears, and I went through the entire program.

TOTAL WAGERED: $50.

SARATOGA SELECTIONS AND ANALYSIS FOR TRAVERS DAY

Best Bet: Hope Road, Race 11
Longshot: Extra Anejo, Race 12

Tartabull (MTO)
Franklin Delano
Bottas

#3 FRANKLIN DELANO (9/2): Has a bottom-side pedigree that screams turf, and he exits a maiden race that should age very well. Given the experience he has, the route and surface he’s bred to love, and the presence of Irad Ortiz Jr., I think there’s plenty to like in the Travers Day opener; #6 BOTTAS (7/2): Sold for $300,000 at auction earlier this year and has several flashy gate drills on the tab. Broodmare sire Lemon Drop Kid is a strong turf influence, and Miguel Clement seems to have turned a corner with first-time starters of late; #2 AMBASSADOR BLUE (5-1): Didn’t do much running in his dirt sprint debut, but he sports a flashy turf workout and adds blinkers here. His dam placed in a Grade 3 event on grass, and it’s possible he’s another getting to do what he wants for the first time.

Society Man (MTO)
Crystal Quest
Brown entry

#7 CRYSTAL QUEST (5/2): Was second as an 8/5 favorite last time out, but I think that three-turn distance was a bit too long. He cuts back to two turns here, Flavien Prat sticks with him, and his usual race would give him a big chance; BROWN ENTRY (7/2): Both #1 EARLY ADOPTER and #1A ACTIVIST INVESTING could win. The former gets class relief after trailing in the Grade 1 Belmont Derby, while the latter goes second off the bench and may have needed his first try since February; #8 VESTING (3-1): Is another cutting back in distance and was third in the race my top pick exits. He’ll likely be a factor early, and as he showed two back at Aqueduct, he could be dangerous if he’s allowed to dictate terms from the jump.

Tam Tam
Glamorize
Amoss entry

#8 TAM TAM (7/2): Hammered for just shy of a cool million last year and has several very strong pre-debut workouts for Phil Bauer, who’s shown he can have first-time starters ready to go. I love the outside draw, which could make things a bit easier on her, and if she runs to her drills and pedigree, look out; #2 GLAMORIZE (5-1): Sold for a million at Keeneland in September and is a half-sister to Randomized, who we’ll see in the Grade 1 Personal Ensign. Her dam is a half to several stakes horses, and her back-to-back bullets late last month turned plenty of heads at Belmont; AMOSS ENTRY (4-1): Both #1 CELEBRITY QUEST and #1A BET THE GRAY could be factors, though only one will run unless there’s a late jockey switch (since Luis Saez is named on both). They’ve both been working well for a barn that’s constantly sent out live runners to this point in the meet.

Merica’s Back
Bond entry
Keepinitreal

#10 MERICA’S BACK (2-1): Has gotten the ultimate equipment change since a distant second as a 2/5 favorite in June, and he’ll start as a gelding for the first time here. The two-back work was very sharp, the outside draw should give Ricardo Santana plenty of options, and he hits me as strictly the one to beat; BOND ENTRY (6-1): #1A ALZERO hits me as the more live half, although #1 SPEIGHTFUL STORM isn’t completely without a shot. The former, though, ran very well two back and might have moved a touch early going a bit longer last time out; #7 KEEPINITREAL (5/2): Has failed as an odds-on favorite twice in a row and may go favored again here given the powerhouse connections. However, I just don’t think he’s had much in the way of excuses, and he hits me as a “pack animal” more than anything else. At his likely price, I can’t endorse him on top.

Nina Kay (MTO)
Silsbee
Annascaul

#10 SILSBEE (3-1): Didn’t have a good trip in the Galway last time out, but still finished within two lengths of the winner (who couldn’t have possibly enjoyed a better journey). Lasix comes back on for this George Weaver trainee, and the class drop combined with a cleaner trip could be the recipe for a win; #6 ANNASCAUL (5/2): Drops out of stakes company for the first time since her debut score here last summer, which means she’s a first-time Lasix recipient. Her back class is substantial, as she’s run up against some nice ones, and it wouldn’t be a shock if she relishes the shallower waters in this first-level allowance for New York-breds; #1 ALPINE GIANT (8-1): Came back running to graduate at a price downstate in her first start since last August and tries winners for the first time. She may still have some room to improve given her relative inexperience, and it’s safe to draw a line through the debut clunker since we didn’t see her again for more than 10 months.

Big Dom
Old Time Rocknroll
My World

#5 BIG DOM (3-1): Has been working very, very well and is bred to be precocious. This son of McKinzie boasts a bottom-side pedigree that includes a dam, second dam, and third dam that were all stakes horses as 2-year-olds, and that second dam, Halfbridled, was a champion; #9 OLD TIME ROCKNROLL (9/2): Draws a cushy outside post in his debut for Chad Brown and sold for $260,000 at auction earlier this year. His works include several very strong gate drills, and it wouldn’t be a shock if he was primed for his unveiling; #1 MY WORLD (8-1): Sports a solid Kentucky work tab for Brad Cox and may provide some value at or near the morning line price. This is far from an easy spot, but this $350,000 auction purchase is another that may have talent.

May Day Ready
Play With Fire
Reining Flowers

#3 MAY DAY READY (5/2): Didn’t break well in the Grade 1 Belmont Oaks and gets a bit of class relief in the Grade 2 Lake Placid. We know she likes Saratoga, going back to her first-out win last season, and she may have a bit more tactical speed than some of her rivals in here; #1 PLAY WITH FIRE (2-1): Was second in the Wild Applause last month and is the one they may need to hold off late. On talent, she fits, but I’m concerned she may need more of an early pace than she’s likely to get in this spot; #6 REINING FLOWERS (4-1): Was a fast-closing third in the Grade 3 Lake George and chased the undefeated Laurelin home in the Penn Oaks before that. She overcame a slow pace to break her maiden here last summer, and she may need to do that again to factor in this one.

Dream On Cara (MTO)
Summer Whirl
Loveumissumeanit

#10 SUMMER WHIRL (5-1): Ran on dirt last time out and clearly didn’t take to it. She goes back to the grass here, and a repeat of her two-back effort (where she did everything but win) would be enough to give her a significant chance; #8 LOVEUMISSUMEANIT (5-1): Beat optional claiming foes last time out for a small barn that’s enjoyed some success here this summer. Toss the off-the-turf clunker three back, and you’re left with a horse that’s taken steps forward every start that could still be improving; #2 GALLANT GRETA (7/2): May have been compromised by a slow pace last time out, when she made up quite a bit of ground and settled for second. I don’t think that was her desired trip, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see her a bit closer here.

Thorpedo Anna
Raging Sea
Leslie’s Rose

#7 THORPEDO ANNA (6/5): Is strictly the one to beat in the Grade 1 Personal Ensign after getting back on the beam last time out. The pace does figure to be hot, but I don’t think she’ll mind stalking outside horses (and, by extension, out of trouble). If she does that, she could prove hard to beat; #3 RAGING SEA (5-1): Didn’t run well last time in the Grade 2 Shuvee, but it sure seems like she’s the lone closer in a race with los of early zip. It’s possible she’s going the wrong way, but she also seems like the chief beneficiary of the likely race shape, and that could wake her up; #6 LESLIE’S ROSE (9/2): Won the Shuvee by daylight and may have just needed some time to get going again after a long break. She chased the champ three times last year and never got close, but horses can improve significantly as 4-year-olds, and she’s certainly in the right hands.

R10

Patch Adams
Verifire
Smoken Wicked

#1 PATCH ADAMS (3-1): Is 3-for-4 around one turn and looked outstanding in winning the Grade 1 Woody Stephens last time out. He draws the rail, but has enough speed to work out his own trip, and the last-out bullet drill indicates he’s sitting on another big one in the Grade 1 H. Allen Jerkens; #5 VERIFIRE (4-1): Is 3-for-3 and has never really broken a sweat, including in an easy score in the Maxfield last time out. This is a class test, but he fits on speed figures and Flavien Prat stays aboard when he had several high-profile options; #6 SMOKEN WICKED (6-1): Capitalized on an ideal trip to romp in the Grade 2 Amsterdam over a solid group. It helps that he doesn’t need the lead in order to run well, and it sure looks like this Louisiana-bred is rounding into form.

R11

Hope Road
My Mane Squeeze
Mystic Lake

#9 HOPE ROAD (3-1): Has kept outstanding company all year long and ships in for Bob Baffert to contest the Grade 1 Ballerina. She’s chased Kopion three times and ran third behind Two Sharp last time out, and I think either of those horses would be favored here. I love the recent works, and I think she’s sitting on a big effort; #8 MY MANE SQUEEZE (5-1): Never looked like a loser against New York-breds last time out and comes back into deeper waters here. She’s run very well multiple times at Saratoga, and she’s only been out of the money once in nine tries at this seven-furlong distance; #1 MYSTIC LAKE (10-1): Merits an underneath look as a “speed of the speed” possibility. She’s shown she can bring her form to a lot of different tracks, and four of her nine wins have come at this trip. I think she could potentially lead them a long way and get a piece of this at a price.

R12

Book’em Danno
Extra Anejo
Mullikin

#4 BOOK’EM DANNO (8/5): Is on his way to establishing himself as the top one-turn horse in the country. He’s won a pair of graded stakes races at the Spa already, he looks to only be getting better, and he looms very large in the Grade 1 Forego; #5 EXTRA ANEJO (20-1): Will be a big price, but he thrives at this seven-furlong trip and boasts the Steve Asmussen “two-back bullet, last-out maintenance” work pattern I absolutely love. His best might not win, but it could absolutely spice up the vertical exotics; #7 MULLIKIN (7/2): Has chased my top pick twice in a row and will look to turn the tables and win his second straight Forego. He’s consistent, but he may need to bring his game to a new level to re-establish himself at the head of the class.

R13

Sovereignty
Strategic Focus
Magnitude

#4 SOVEREIGNTY (2/5): Will be one of the shortest prices in the history of the Grade 1 Travers, and for good reason. A repeat of his two-back effort in the Belmont crushes these, and he may not even have to move forward from his last-out score in the Grade 2 Jim Dandy, which served as a prep for the Midsummer Derby; #3 STRATEGIC FOCUS (6-1): Looked like a winner in the Curlin when he hit the front, but he, well, lost his focus in mid-stretch. Blinkers go on this Chad Brown trainee, and by all accounts he’s responded to that equipment change in the mornings; #1 MAGNITUDE (2-1): Came back with an easy wire-to-wire score in the Iowa Derby and tries top-end competition here. He upset the Grade 2 Risen Star at 43-1 two back and is dangerous if left alone up top, but I do think there’s some other speed in here and he may face some adversity going into the first turn.

R14

Dancin Jane
Sky Low Low
Argentiera

#1 DANCIN JANE (5/2): Was third as a 1/2 favorite last time out, but to be fair, that was her first start since September and she may have needed that effort. I’m willing to give her another shot in the Travers Day nightcap, as it’s not like there are any monsters in this maiden claimer; #3 SKY LOW LOW (12-1): Hasn’t run since October but has been training consistently for Adrianne DeVaux, who does great work bringing horses back off the bench. First-time Lasix could move her forward, too, and it’s not like her initial outing was terrible, either; #7 ARGENTIERA (15-1): Improved a bit to be fourth at this level and route a few weeks ago and gets a significant rider switch to Santana. That could move her forward, and she’s another that may have room to do that given her relative inexperience.

SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (8/27/22; TRAVERS DAY)

Posted on August 26, 2022 by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $809.45

It’s Travers Day, which means I’ll have one of my biggest audiences of the year. After last week’s sojourn to Saratoga, there’s only one thing I could use this space for. If it resonates with just one casual track-goer, I’ll consider it a victory.

For 150 years, it has been tradition to observe seats with newspapers, coolers, or other things on them as taken. Yes, seating is at a premium, but folks who get to the track when the doors open, set up camp, and go to the bathroom between races shouldn’t come back to see their picnic tables, benches, or chairs vultured by other people.

My father and I had our clubhouse bench vultured five different times last Saturday, a few when we were standing just a few feet away talking to friends (once when I was sitting down and someone decided they were entitled to the rest of the bench, which was covered). I was raised to believe this is unacceptable behavior, and I’ll always feel that way.

Several people I call friends feel differently about this. They’re incorrect. This has been a tradition for 150 years, and the beauty of Saratoga is that traditions that don’t matter elsewhere matter here. Keep that in mind when you’re at the track, both today and each time you head to the Spa.

FRIDAY’S RESULTS: Unfortunately, the Yaddo was one of several intriguing grass races washed off the turf. My action was cancelled.

SATURDAY’S PLAY: If you watched Thursday’s live-streamed HHH Racing Podcast, you saw me give out a 50-cent Pick Five beginning in the seventh race. I’ll play that ticket here, and it goes as follows: 1,2,3,5,7,8 with 6 with 1,2,3,5 with 1,3,6,8 with 6.

TOTAL WAGERED: $48.

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Jackie’s Warrior, Race 5
Longshot: Soldier Rising, Race 10

Verifying
Game Warden
Standard of Proof

#3 VERIFYING: Hammered for $775,000 at auction last year, and for good reason. He’s by Justify and out of a mare named Diva Delite, which makes him a half-brother to Midnight Bisou. He’s worked well for Brad Cox and looms large in his unveiling bright and early on Travers Saturday; #1 GAME WARDEN: Has several strong works for Bill Mott and may be talented enough to overcome the inside draw. His female family includes the dam of champion Saint Liam, and my biggest hesitation is thinking he may well want more than this six-furlong distance; #7 STANDARD OF PROOF: Sold for $170,000 last fall and has been working consistently for the meet’s leading trainer. The outside draw is a plus, and while I think there’s more turf to his bottom-side pedigree than dirt, offspring of Gun Runner can generally perform on anything.

America’s Guest
Triple Start
Take Me to Jimmy

#7 AMERICA’S GUEST: Rallied a bit to be fifth in his debut for a trainer whose horses tend to need a race to get going. This colt gets a big rider switch to Irad Ortiz, Jr., and sports a recent four-furlong drill that hints he’s sitting on a considerable move forward at second asking; #5 TRIPLE START: Has a pedigree that says he’ll love this two-turn trip. He’s a half-brother to Grade 1 winner Persistently and stakes-placed runner Award It, his second dam is Hall of Famer Heavenly Prize, and offspring of American Pharoah tend to like turf; #8 TAKE ME TO JIMMY: Is a half-brother to multiple Grade 3 winner Tammy the Torpedo and has plenty of class in the bottom side of her pedigree. This daughter of Kitten’s Joy sold for $335,000 across the street last summer, and this outfit must be respected in these races.

On the Hill
Great Workout
Colormepazzi

#1 ON THE HILL: Won an open starter allowance event last time out and comes back into the state-bred ranks for this seven-furlong event. Luis Saez sees fit to ride back, and I certainly don’t see this spot as a class hike. A repeat of the last-out effort may very well be enough; #9 GREAT WORKOUT: Cuts back to one turn after going too long when fifth in a two-turn race last month. His two-back effort was a winning one, albeit against claimers, but that 89 Beyer Speed Figure shows his best may be good enough to win this at a bit of a price; #3 COLORMEPAZZI: Didn’t have an ideal trip last time out, when he was forced to rate behind a fast pace and never kicked on. He wants to be on the lead, and I don’t think he’ll need to overextend himself in order to get there in this event.

Technical Analysis
Lemista
Fluffy Socks

#5 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: Hasn’t run a poor race in more than a year, a stretch that includes two local graded stakes wins and a second in the Grade 1 Diana. She certainly looks like the lone speed in the Grade 2 Ballston Spa, and I think she’ll get very comfortable early on and prove tough to catch; #2 LEMISTA: Ended a two-year drought with a win in the Grade 3 Matchmaker at Monmouth Park last month. She seems to connect with Flavien Prat, who also rode her to a Grade 1 placing last summer, and she has enough tactical speed to sit a good stalking trip; #4 FLUFFY SOCKS: Has hit the board in 12 of 15 lifetime starts, most of which have been graded stakes races. Her usual race gets her a piece of this one, but it’s fair to wonder if she’s turned into a bit of a hanger given an inability to capitalize on some very nice setups this season.

Jackie’s Warrior
Cody’s Wish
Baby Yoda

#3 JACKIE’S WARRIOR: Will look to run his local record to 6-for-6 in the Grade 1 Forego, and it’s tough to see him getting much of a test here. He couldn’t have won the Grade 1 Vanderbilt any easier, we know he can get the extra furlong this race carries with it, and I think he’ll be a popular single; #5 CODY’S WISH: Has won five of his last six and has clearly turned into a very good one-turn miler. He’s posted back-to-back triple-digit Beyer Speed Figures, but I wonder if this seven-furlong trip is a bit shorter than his best distance; #1 BABY YODA: Is another that loves Saratoga, with a 3-for-3 local mark. One of those races saw him post a freakish 114 Beyer Speed Figure, and he exits a solid score at this route early in the meet.

Luni Sima
Life Changer
Baltasar

#8 LUNI SIMA: Lost all chance at the start last time out, when he settled for fourth behind some talented runners at this level downstate. His races prior to that this season were pretty solid, his lone start at seven furlongs was a win at Gulfstream Park, and I think he’ll be going the right way late; #2 LIFE CHANGER: Was second earlier this meet after setting a legitimate early pace, and he’s another that sports a win at this tricky seven-furlong distance. Joel Rosario rides back for John Terranova, and he seems like the main early speed; #5 BALTASAR: Is a consistent sort that generally runs the same race every time. He was fourth last month in the same race my second choice exits, and he has enough tactical speed to work out an ideal stalking trip in what hits me as a wide-open starter allowance.

Ranger Fox
Maxwell Esquire
Cazadero

#5 RANGER FOX: Sure looks far better if you toss his route races. His last-out victory going short on turf at Belmont was very good, he seems like the main speed here, and a step forward second off the bench would make him a tough one to reel in; #2 MAXWELL ESQUIRE: Cuts back to his preferred trip after not finding a two-turn mile to be to his liking last time out. This 5-year-old veteran has run well against tough groups downstate, and he does sport a win at this route (though not a recent one); #7 CAZADERO: Has been off seven months, but a quick glance at his PP’s shows he’s a very fast horse that can run a big race when he’s right. This is his turf debut, but he’s got a grass-friendly pedigree, being by Street Sense and out of a mare who’s a full sister to a stakes-placed turf sprinter.

Jack Christopher
Gunite
Conagher

#6 JACK CHRISTOPHER: Is 4-for-4 around one turn and has never been seriously tested in those races. His first career defeat came last time out in the Grade 1 Haskell, but that was going much longer. He’s back doing what he wants to do and looks like a handful in the Grade 1 H. Allen Jerkens; #8 GUNITE: Has a pair of graded stakes wins over this surface, including the Grade 2 Amsterdam from a few weeks ago. He’s also got two victories going this seven-furlong distance, and he could be sitting right off the favorite’s flank going into the turn; #1 CONAGHER: Has developed into a very fast horse with wins in three of his last four outings. One of those was a score in a seven-furlong stakes race at Colonial Downs, and he handed Gunite a resounding defeat three back when earning an impressive 105 Beyer Speed Figure.

Clairiere
Malathaat
Search Results

#3 CLAIRIERE: Has won three of four starts this season after taking a big leap forward from age three to age four. She comes in on a two-race win streak over many of the rivals she faces in the Grade 1 Personal Ensign, and her usual effort gives her a big chance to extend it; #5 MALATHAAT: Has run second behind Clairiere twice in a row, but did win last year’s Grade 1 Alabama over this surface. Todd Pletcher blames the heat for a bit of a dud in the Grade 2 Shuvee, and it’s tough to hold much against a horse that’s never missed the board in 11 career tries; #2 SEARCH RESULTS: Shipped to Monmouth Park to win the Grade 3 Molly Pitcher, and that day’s runner-up came back to win the Summer Colony last week. This is a considerable step up in class, to be sure, but she pressed a scorching pace in the Grade 1 Ogden Phipps and may be up to the task.

R10

Broome
Soldier Rising
Adhamo

#3 BROOME: Ships back across the Atlantic for Aidan O’Brien and looms large in the Grade 1 Sword Dancer. His lone prior U.S. start was a hard-luck second in the Breeders’ Cup Turf where he did everything but win, and he’s since been running against some of the top thoroughbreds in Europe; #8 SOLDIER RISING: Got up in the last stride to win his local prep for this event and has a load of back class. He ran second behind Melbourne Cup winner State of Rest and Breeders’ Cup Turf hero Yibir a season ago, and there should be plenty of pace signed on to set up for him to come flying late at a price; #1 ADHAMO: Earned his first Grade 1 win in the United Nations at Monmouth Park last time out. He’s yet to fire a bad shot in North America since coming here over the winter, and Flavien Prat is riding as well as anyone in the colony at this stand.

R11

Epicenter
Early Voting
Cyberknife

#6 EPICENTER: Has danced a lot of dances this season and looms large in the Grade 1 Travers. The runner-up in the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes won the Grade 2 Jim Dandy impressively despite rating behind a pretty moderate pace, and this ultra-consistent colt’s usual effort would make him tough to deny; #7 EARLY VOTING: Came up empty in the Jim Dandy, but I expect an improved effort here. For a race of this magnitude, there isn’t a lot of early pace signed on. Of the three runners from this barn, he’s the one I think could get very comfortable on or near the lead and be in prime position when the real running starts; #1 CYBERKNIFE: Benefited from a picture-perfect ride to win the Grade 1 Haskell at Monmouth Park over some talented horses. This field’s lone two-time Grade 1 winner has a sheet that looks far better if you toss his Kentucky Derby clunker, but that Haskell effort was a significant move forward on figures. Can he repeat that performance? He might have to.

R12

Heymackit’sjack
Empire Sky
Sir John

#7 HEYMACKIT’SJACK: Has run second against similar foes in back-to-back tries and seems to be in a “now or never” situation against this bunch. Blinkers come on, Irad Ortiz, Jr., sees fit to ride back, and I think he sits a perfect stalking trip just off the pace; #4 EMPIRE SKY: Has run third in a pair of open events at Monmouth Park and ships here to go against state-bred competition. These may be shallower waters, and he’s lightly-raced enough to still have some room for improvement (which would put him right there); #8 SIR JOHN: Cuts back to a sprint in his second start off a long layoff and probably needed his last-out effort. He showed some early interest that day before fading to sixth, but this barn keeps him at this level and retains the first-call rider. At his likely price, he hits me as a must-use.

R13

Jane Grey (MTO)
Salimah
Miss Tapirado

#6 SALIMAH: Gets a tepid nod in a wide-open finale. She was very impressive breaking her maiden at Tampa Bay Downs by nearly five lengths over the winter, and it helps her cause that that day’s runner-up came back to win at next asking; #9 MISS TAPIRADO: Took a step forward last time out when second at this level and distance at Belmont. She’s won going two turns before (albeit prior to a very long layoff), and the new dimension she showed sitting off the pace last time out will be helpful here; #2 INVINCIBLE GAL: Ran reasonably well when third in her first start off the bench last month. She’s logical on figures, but she also hasn’t won in more than two years. Much of that time has been spent running against stakes foes, so some of that is easily forgiven, but her likely price does hit me as a bit of an underlay.

SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (8/28/21; TRAVERS DAY)

Posted on August 26, 2021 by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $895.90

It’s Travers Day, and I’m going to take advantage of what’s likely the biggest audience I’ll have all year to make a very important statement. In a shocking turn of events, it’s not my usual mocking of the ludicrous, unenforced “no running” rule. This one’s actually serious, and it’ll almost certainly get me hate mail. Then again, I’ve gotten plenty of that this summer for some pretty stupid reasons, so why break precedent?

Longtime readers know I lost my grandmother to COVID-19 last summer. She spent most of her life as a nurse, and if she was still here, she’d be telling everyone she knew (and urging me to tell everyone I know) to get vaccinated.

I’ll add my own spin to it. You’re not going to grow a third arm. You’re not getting microchipped with a tracking device. You’re not going to be safer taking substances meant for horses and cows than you would be getting a vaccine manufactured by Pfizer, Moderna, or Johnson and Johnson. This has become a politicized topic, and it shouldn’t be. Get the (insert your expletive of choice here) shot.

FRIDAY’S RESULTS: Miss Alacrity scratched, so my action was cancelled.

SATURDAY’S PLAY: I’ve got a 4:15 pm plane to catch, so I’ll focus early on in the card. I’ll play $5 doubles starting with #1 BACK TO NORMAL and #5 JACK CHRISTOPHER in the second and ending with #1 PRINCESS FAWZIA/#1A SPARKLING SKY and #3 GOLDEN PLUME in the third. Additionally, that’ll start a 50-cent Pick Four ticket that goes like this: 1,5 with 1,3 with 3,6 with 3,4,6.

TOTAL WAGERED: $32.

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Essential Quality, Race 12
Longshot: Charmed, Race 6

Sweeping Giant
Doctor Davis
Pletcher entry

#10 SWEEPING GIANT: Ran very well to finish second in his debut last month and is very logical at second asking in the Travers Day opener. The far outside post isn’t ideal, but Joel Rosario is among the best in the game at saving ground on the turf, and if he gets a good trip, he’s probably the one to beat; #7 DOCTOR DAVIS: Was highly-touted in his unveiling, which came in the same race my top pick exits. He faded after setting the pace, but Bill Mott’s horses often need a race or two to get going, and if you were willing to take 8/5 last time, you’ll be happy to know you’ll likely get at least double that price here; #1 ROYAL SPIRIT: Sold for $450,000 at auction last year and boasts a top-notch female family. Her dam is kin to Grade 1-placed runner Beautician, as well as graded stakes winners Mo Tom and Red Ruby, both of whom did their best work going long.

Jack Christopher
Back to Normal
Be Better

#5 JACK CHRISTOPHER: Has been working up a storm for Chad Brown ahead of his debut and looms large here. He’s by strong sire Munnings, and his dam is a half-sister to another strong sire in Street Boss. Between the drills and the pedigree, there’s an awful lot to like; #1 BACK TO NORMAL: Ran a decent race in his debut to finish second behind a runaway winner that has since come back to win again. He’s one of only two runners in this field with prior experience, and his local workouts hint that he’s bounced out of that performance in good order; #3 BE BETTER: Has been working consistently for Todd Pletcher and is another bred to be any kind. If there’s any hesitation here, it’s because I think the six-furlong distance may actually be shorter than his preferred trip, given a bottom-side pedigree that boasts an abundance of stamina.

Trinni Luck (MTO)
Golden Plume
Black Swan entry

#3 GOLDEN PLUME: Won for fun in her debut back in January at Tampa and will look to get back to business here. I’m not sure what she beat in that initial effort, but she looked great doing it, and world-class jockey Flavien Prat sees fit to ride for Brown; BLACK SWAN ENTRY: Both of these runners seem well-meant at a price, but I slightly prefer #1A SPARKLING SKY. She’s never run a bad race at Saratoga and had every right to need a race last time out off of a very long break. If she channels her 2019/2020 form, she’s got a chance to light up the tote board; #6 SECRET TIME: Hasn’t won in more than two years but boasts plenty of back class and didn’t run badly when third in her local debut. That was her first start since moving to Danny Gargan’s barn, and any step forward would make her a threat to grab a piece of this.

Viadera
Kalifornia Queen
Platinum Paynter

#3 VIADERA: Didn’t have a great trip when fourth in the De La Rose a few weeks ago. She rated behind a slow pace and didn’t have clear running room until it was too late. Between the likelihood of a cleaner journey and the fact this is her second start off the bench, I think she’s a formidable favorite in the Grade 2 Ballston Spa; #6 KALIFORNIA QUEEN: Makes up the other half of a powerful 1-2 punch for this barn and exits a runner-up finish in the Grade 3 Matchmaker at Monmouth. Prior to that, she chased classy turf distaffers War Like Goddess and Antoinette, and this spot seems a bit softer than those; #5 PLATINUM PAYNTER: Appears a bit outclassed on paper, but she’s also the likeliest early pace-setter in a race light on gate speed. Jose Lezcano is a very sharp turf rider, and if the race shape works in this one’s favor, she could lead them a long way at a price.

Whittington Park
Miracle Nicky
Brady’s Legacy

#4 WHITTINGTON PARK: Was a bit one-paced in his unveiling last month, but the blinkers go on at second asking and this barn’s second-time starters are usually very live. His 63 Beyer Speed Figure is the highest such number in the field by daylight, and if he moves forward, this seems like his race to lose; #3 MIRACLE NICKY: Has been working unusually fast downstate for Rudy Rodriguez, who doesn’t often ask his horses for all that much in the mornings. His dam is a half to a nice horse named Curious Conundrum, who won multiple stakes races, and the $110,000 purchase price hints at some potential; #6 BRADY’S LEGACY: Sold for $250,000 despite not much of a bottom-side pedigree, so he obviously impressed some folks at the OBS sale this past April. He’s got a few solid works, and Jose Ortiz has been enticed to ride this Jeremiah Englehart trainee.

Charmed
Big Package
Shiraz

#6 CHARMED: Was anything but in his last-out effort, when he fell to his knees at the break and somehow found a way to run third. Prior to that, he was a sharp third behind the talented Fauci at Monmouth, and with a clean trip, I think he can get the job done at a bit of a price; #11 BIG PACKAGE: Was second in the race my top pick exits and is a consistent sort that always seems to fire. The outside post isn’t ideal, but Irad Ortiz, Jr., should be able to drop back and make one run, and that’s a strategy that’s worked very well for this one in the past; #9 SHIRAZ: Topped a classy group of state-breds last time out over yielding going and steps back into open company here. Luis Saez sees fit to ride back, and he’s run some of his best races over this route of ground.

Gamine
Ce Ce
Estilo Talentoso

#1 GAMINE: Is one of racing’s most star-crossed horses, but when she’s right, few are better (especially going one turn). Controversy still swirls around trainer Bob Baffert, but assuming his star female sprinter has shipped to Saratoga in good order, she’s strictly the one to beat; #7 CE CE: Is 2-for-2 this season going seven furlongs and is no stranger to Grade 1 glory, having won a pair of events at this level last year. Her win in the Grade 2 Princess Rooney was very impressive, and if Gamine doesn’t fire, this one’s probably the likeliest beneficiary; #6 ESTILO TALENTOSO: Is very easy to root for because, quite simply, she always shows up. She’s never been worse than third in 15 lifetime outings, and the faster they go early on in the Grade 1 Ballerina, the better her chances figure to be.

Lexitonian
Whitmore
Yaupon

#3 LEXITONIAN: Ensured a spot in this handicapper’s gambling Hall of Fame with a 34-1 victory in the Grade 1 Vanderbilt earlier this summer. He stretches out to seven furlongs here, but he’s shown he can handle this distance and could sit an ideal trip just off the pace in the Grade 1 Forego; #2 WHITMORE: May have needed the race, to an extent, when third in the Vanderbilt following a freshening. He generally races his way into form, and this 8-year-old gelding figures to be heard from late; #7 YAUPON: Was going really well last season and was the 6/5 favorite in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Sprint, which Whitmore won. His comeback race at Pimlico was fine, and the main hesitation here is the stretch-out to seven furlongs. That’s not an easy task against a good group, but if he can handle the distance, he may be tough to run down.

Jackie’s Warrior
Life Is Good
Judge N Jury

#2 JACKIE’S WARRIOR: Romped in the Grade 2 Amsterdam after dueling through torrid fractions in the slop. As long as he’s kept around one turn, he’s going to be very tough to beat, and his seasoning edge over his primary rival is enough to give him my nod in the Grade 1 H. Allen Jerkens; #6 LIFE IS GOOD: Was brilliant (my goodness, I hate that word) in three wins on the west coast, including two over eventual Kentucky Derby winner (sort of) Medina Spirit. He’s since been transferred to Todd Pletcher and has been working lights-out over the Oklahoma track, but this is a very tough ask for a horse that hasn’t run since March; #5 JUDGE N JURY: Earned a 99 Beyer Speed Figure with an eye-catching romp in a state-bred allowance race at this route last month. This is a gigantic step up, but he may be the only horse in this field that can comfortably rate, and that could be enough to allow him to hit the board at a big price.

R10

Letruska
Swiss Skydiver
Royal Flag

#6 LETRUSKA: Has turned into a freakish distaffer and looms large in the Grade 1 Personal Ensign. She’s won five of her last six starts, with the lone defeat coming to Shedaresthedevil (who doesn’t show up here). She may not be alone up front, but I don’t think it matters; #4 SWISS SKYDIVER: Chased Knicks Go in the Grade 1 Whitney a few weeks ago, and that came after trainer Ken McPeek’s barn was quarantined. She had every right to need that race off a bit of a layoff, too, so I can’t hold it against her in any capacity. She won last year’s Alabama, could sit just off the pace, and is very dangerous; #5 ROYAL FLAG: Came flying late to take the Grade 3 Shuvee over Horologist, who came back to jog in the Summer Colony last weekend. She could once again get a terrific setup, and I expect her to be going the right way late at a fair price for a red-hot barn.

R11

Tribhuvan
Japan
Cross Border

#1 TRIBHUVAN: Has gotten very good, very quickly, and is a threat to wire the field in the Grade 1 Sword Dancer. That was the trip he sat in the Grade 1 United Nations last time out, and if he’s allowed to get comfortable going under the wire the first time, he’ll have a big chance to be in front the second time around, too; #6 JAPAN: Is an intriguing shipper coming across the pond for Aidan O’Brien. Back in 2019, he won two of Europe’s most prestigious races, the Grand Prix de Paris and the Juddmonte International. I’m not sure he’s quite the same horse, but if he brings that type of effort, he’ll be a force to be reckoned with; #7 CROSS BORDER: Is nearly perfect at Saratoga and was pretty impressive in winning the Grade 2 Bowling Green for the second consecutive season. This seems like a stronger group, to be sure, but he was a fair second in this race last August and his best effort would give him a chance.

R12

Essential Quality
Midnight Bourbon
King Fury

#2 ESSENTIAL QUALITY: Is impossible to go against in the Grade 1 Travers. He’ll love the distance, he’s in terrific form, and he exits what hit me as a perfect prep in the Grade 2 Jim Dandy. If he comes with his usual effort, I think he takes a big step to clinching his division’s Eclipse Award; #1 MIDNIGHT BOURBON: Miraculously came out of what looked like a terrible fall in the Grade 1 Haskell with no injuries, and he’s worked well since coming to the Spa after that series of events. He was a good second in the Grade 1 Preakness behind Rombauer, and he’s got enough early speed to make his own trip, which might label him as the one they’ll have to catch turning for home; #7 KING FURY: Is a horse that’s seemed to be crying out for as much distance as possible since his 2-year-old season. He didn’t like the turf last time out, and he’s been snakebitten with rotten luck on several occasions, but now that he’s finally doing what it looks like he wants to do, he’ll be on all of my exotics tickets.

R13

Bella Principessa
Sister Luck
Constitutionalrage

#14 BELLA PRINCIPESSA: Needs some luck in order to draw into the Saturday finale, but she must be respected if she runs. She rated behind a very slow pace last time out and should get a bit more speed in front of her here if two horses scratch and she’s allowed to compete; #12 SISTER LUCK: Has a few red flags, but also has several qualities I can’t ignore. She’s worked well on turf a few times since going to Todd Pletcher’s barn, she drops in class, and she’s shown a lot of early speed going shorter. If she’s got the stamina to go two turns, she could be a handful; #6 CONSTITUTIONALRAGE: Comes back to the turf after being eased in an off-the-turf event last month. Turf is absolutely her preferred surface, and her one start on the lawn at this level resulted in a good second in a race downstate, one where that day’s third-place finisher came back to win.

SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (8/8/20; TRAVERS DAY)

Posted on August 6, 2020 by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $722

It’s Travers Day, and since my annual diatribe against the pointless “no running” rule is obsolete without fans, I’ll focus on something I’m very good at: Shameless self-promotion.

Friday night featured a chat with the one and only Norman Chad for this week’s edition of “Champagne and J.D.,” my weekly YouTube show. Norman’s one of the voices of the World Series of Poker and has enjoyed a long career as a sportswriter through his “Couch Slouch” column, and it’s an interview I’d wanted to do for 17 years (since a high school-aged Andrew saw him call the 2003 WSOP won by Chris Moneymaker). I hope you’ll check it out, and if you like what you see/hear, hit the “subscribe” button so you don’t miss any of our weekly episodes.

I also sat down with the fine folks at the “IntoTheBit” podcast Thursday night, and we dove into not just the Travers Day card, but my career in horse racing and some of the areas where we feel the sport is falling short as well. I told a few cool stories and also got to expound on some strong opinions, and it was a blast. Go listen to that, too!

FRIDAY’S RESULTS: Kemba did indeed win the fourth as my live “longshot” of the day. Unfortunately, not only was that one bet down to 5/2 off a 10-1 morning line (hence the quotes in the last sentence), but my exacta ran 1-3 and doubles were foiled when Honor Way circled most of the field to win the fifth. As a silver lining, scratches reduced my losses in this section to just $20.

SATURDAY’S PLAY: If you listened to “IntoTheBit,” you know I gave out a $21 all-stakes Pick Five, and that’s my primary source of action. It starts in the seventh, and the 50-cent ticket goes as follows: 6,7 with ALL with 1,5,7 with 5 with 6. Additionally, I’ll play a cold $4 exacta in the 10th (the Grade 1 Test) using #5 GAMINE on top of #4 WICKED WHISPER, who I think may be well-meant at a price.

TOTAL WAGERED: $25.

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Gamine, Race 10
Longshot: Pink Sands, Race 7

Bay Street Money
The Angry Man
Doswell

#4 BAY STREET MONEY: Makes sense in a puzzling Travers Day opener. He stepped forward to run a sharp second at second asking on Independence Day, and he finished quick enough that day to make me think he’s got something left in the tank; #6 THE ANGRY MAN: Was second in his turf debut, where he chased a winner who got loose on an easy lead. Luis Saez returns to the saddle, and I think he could be on or near a moderate early pace; #3 DOSWELL: Returns after nearly a year off and showed potential last year when running Good Governance to a nose. If he’s ready, he could easily win this, but he’s making his first start for a patient barn, so it wouldn’t be a shock if he needed this race to some extent.

Atras entry
Creative Style
Shalako

ATRAS ENTRY: I prefer #1 LIL COMMISSIONER, who’s won four of his last six starts and didn’t miss a beat when moved from the care of Jorge Navarro following the FBI’s actions earlier this year. #1A MUSICAL HEART was second against similar earlier this meet and could improve in his first start for this outfit; #6 CREATIVE STYLE: Looked good winning going long two back at Belmont and was a decent third in a sprint earlier in the meet against slightly better. Two turns is a bit of an unknown, but he’s going well and won’t line up against any monsters here; #3 SHALAKO: Won a race several rivals in here also exit, but he sort of won by default when he rallied in a race that fell apart. That win was the ninth of his career, and he hasn’t fired a bad shot since going to the Rudy Rodriguez barn late last year.

Risky Mischief
Ava K’s Girl
Light in the Sky

#3 RISKY MISCHIEF: Tries turf for the first time and is bred to love it. She’s by Into Mischief, out of a Limehouse mare, boasts a 347 turf Tomlinson rating, and takes a drop in to face state-bred allowance foes second off the layoff; #4 AVA K’S GIRL: Cuts back to a turf sprint after going too long last time out. She ran well late to be fourth two back downstate, and she boasts a win at this route that came in her career debut last summer; #9 LIGHT IN THE SKY: May be a short price, but I have my doubts. She seems to find trouble, and it’s not like the one win of her career was an overpowering effort, so I’ll try to beat her on most of my tickets.

Schettino entry (MTO)
Hieroglyphics
Golden Spear

#5 HIEROGLYPHICS: Drops in class for Mike Maker, who’s been riding a real hot streak of late. This one’s won here twice, and a return to one of her favorite turf courses may be just what the doctor ordered (although he’ll likely be a short price); #8 GOLDEN SPEAR: Won here last year and returned with a solid second downstate in his first start since October. He’s got some versatility to him, and it wouldn’t surprise me if he sat a stalking trip and got first run turning for home; #2 SIDING SPRING: May have needed his return race off a four-month layoff, and he’s got back form that would give him a shot in this spot. He seems like the most logical pace-setter, and the inside draw could be an asset.

Mutasaabeq
Guana Cay
Bottle Rocket Man

#7 MUTASAABEQ: Hammered for $425,000 at Keeneland as a weanling and has been working lights-out for Todd Pletcher. He’s by top juvenile sire Into Mischief, and the outside draw should help in his unveiling; #5 GUANA CAY: Is one of just three in here with prior experience, and she ran reasonably well when third on the turf at Keeneland. She seems to have bounced out of that race well, and Irad rides back for Wesley Ward; #6 BOTTLE ROCKET MAN: Is another debuting runner by Into Mischief and sold for $350,000 last year. There are a few nice works on the tab, but note he’d been at Monmouth for a while before coming north, and that’s where Chad Brown generally keeps his second-stringers.

Restored Order (MTO)
Secret Potion
Hidden Enemy

#1 SECRET POTION: Is yet another son of Into Mischief with a big shot on the Saturday undercard. The bottom of his pedigree is also flashy, as his dam is a half to multiple Grade 1-winning turf router Point Of Entry; #4 HIDDEN ENEMY: Is bred up and down to be a very good horse. He’s by Galileo and out of the Empire Maker mare Acoma, who herself is a half to Grade 1 winner and well-known sire Arch; #10 FIRE AT WILL: Has been working consistently for Mike Maker and adds yet another flashy turf pedigree to the mix. His dam is a half to multiple graded stakes winner Decorated Invader, and sire Declaration of War is actually that one’s sire (anyone else think inbreeding’s getting out of hand?).

Pink Sands
Come Dancing
Bellafina

#6 PINK SANDS: Cuts back to her preferred route of ground and should get an ideal setup in the Grade 1 Ballerina. With so much early speed signed on, I want a closer that can come flying late, and this multiple stakes-winner from the McGaughey barn fits that bill at a price; #7 COME DANCING: Returned to the Carlos Martin barn last time out and ran an OK second in the Grade 3 Vagrancy. She’s the defending champion, and with her closing kick, she’ll be a contender once again if Martin has her cranked up; #4 BELLAFINA: Has plenty of talent, but certainly seems like a beatable favorite. Weird stuff happens to her when she ships out of California, and while her best race could win this, she’s yet to put forth anything close to that kind of effort outside of the Pacific time zone.

Pure Sensation
Imprimis
Chewing Gum

#5 PURE SENSATION: Is a reluctant top pick in a wide-open renewal of the Grade 3 Troy. I’m drawing a line through the Grade 1 Jaipur, which was his first start since November, and a return to his best form would put him right there for red-hot trainer Christophe Clement; #1 IMPRIMIS: Returns off the bench, and if he’s at his best, he probably wins, especially given what will likely be a favorable race shape. The issue is, he wasn’t the same since coming back from Royal Ascot last summer, and the lack of a local work is a concern; #7 CHEWING GUM: Is another that figures to sit back and make one big run when the pace-setters’ strides shorten. His win two back was good, and while he may want a bit longer than this distance, it’s not like he’s run terribly going this short in the past.

Mrs. Sippy
Fools Gold
Olympic Games

#1 MRS. SIPPY: Returns to the races for Graham Motion, who’s one of the best in the game at getting turf marathoners ready to run. She won last year’s Grade 2 Glens Falls before running second to Sistercharlie in the Grade 1 Flower Bowl, and at her best, she’ll be the one to beat in the Grade 3 Waya; #7 FOOLS GOLD: Won this race a season ago and likely needed her run in the Grade 2 New York. She may get the benefit of a great trip on or near a slow early pace, and of the two Chad Brown trainees, she intrigues me the most; #5 OLYMPIC GAMES: Has run second in two stateside starts, including one at this distance downstate. She may be at her best with more pace to chase, but at a minimum, the 12-furlong journey shouldn’t be much of an obstacle.

R10

Gamine
Wicked Whisper
Venetian Harbor

#5 GAMINE: Ran a proverbial hole in the wind in the Grade 1 Acorn and looks much the best on paper in the Grade 1 Test. Simply put, anything close to her last-out effort would make her almost impossible to beat in this spot; #4 WICKED WHISPER: Rate’s a puncher’s chance to crash the exacta at a big price. It wasn’t long ago she was seen as the top 2-year-old filly on the East Coast following a win in the Grade 1 Frizette, and she likely needed her 2020 debut off a long break; #6 VENETIAN HARBOR: Settled for second behind Speech in the Grade 1 Ashland at Keeneland and cuts back to a one-turn sprint here. Her Beyer Speed Figures are strong, but I can’t shake the image of a horse that got an easy lead last time out as a 3/5 favorite and had no answer for the only horse that challenged her.

R11

Tiz the Law
Uncle Chuck
South Bend

#6 TIZ THE LAW: Is in line to earn his fourth straight win in the Grade 1 Travers (no, I will not mention the sponsor without the money everyone else is getting, thank you very much), and it sure looks like all systems are go. I don’t think the 10-furlong trip will bother him in the slightest given his pedigree, and he’s strictly the one to beat; #3 UNCLE CHUCK: Looms the main danger after shipping from California for Bob Baffert. I respect him a great deal, but taking on the division leader going 10 furlongs in his third career start after flying cross-country to a new track is no easy task; #8 SOUTH BEND: Could be worth a look at a price in his first start for Bill Mott. He hasn’t won in a while, but he could benefit from a pace meltdown, and if multiple riders cook their horses early, this is the one that could sit the Keen Ice trip and pick up the pieces.

R12

Misty Taste
Bankers Beast
Tiny Magoo

#5 MISTY TASTE: Gets my top pick in a mess of a race where I wish I didn’t have to give one. I’m betting that she runs to her recent works for new trainer Kelly Breen, and she may not have to be all that much in her first start against state-bred competition; #9 BANKERS BEAST: Exits a turf sprint that came up reasonably tough and has a right to improve at second asking. She was fifth of 10 that day, and this barn’s runners usually improve with experience; #7 TINY MAGOO: Makes her second start off the layoff for a barn that can pop at a price. She got squeezed at the break in her return to the races, and she was an OK second in her debut against state-bred maiden claimers at Aqueduct.

SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (8/24/19, TRAVERS DAY)

Posted on August 22, 2019 by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $736.10

Happy Travers Day, everyone! We’ve got a 13-race card on tap, complete with six Grade 1 events that have attracted some of the best horses currently in training. The Travers, unfortunately, boasts an underwhelming group that lacks the winners of the Kentucky Derby, Preakness, and Belmont (among other key divisional races), but from top to bottom, this is one of the most exciting cards we’ll see all year long.

There are plenty of opportunities to take stands with juicy prices, and my plays today will reflect that. If you’re diving in, pace yourself. Big fields mean potential for overlays, and a number of these events could be won by a number of contenders. From a bankroll standpoint, it’s an exciting day, as it may only take one winning ticket to ensure a profitable afternoon.

FRIDAY’S RESULTS: The good news is that, for the first time in a week, our action wasn’t cancelled due to a surface switch. The bad news is that Bankit needed an extra jump he didn’t get in the Albany. As such, we dropped $30.

SATURDAY’S PLAY: I’ll practice what I preach by playing four separate $5 win/place bets throughout the card. I’ll use #7 BALON ROSE (race 3), #7 PAYNE (race 4), #6 YA PRIMO (race 10, the Grade 1 Sword Dancer), and #7 MUCHO GUSTO (race 11, the Travers with an overexposed sponsor I refuse to mention). Additionally, just for fun, I’ll play cold $5 doubles starting in the third and 10th races that use these horses. If morning lines hold up, it won’t take too much for this to be a pretty good day.

TOTAL WAGERED: $50

– – – – –

BEST BET: Brown entry, Race 1
LONGSHOT: Five Alarm Robin, Race 13

Brown entry
Lemonist
Keep Quiet

BROWN ENTRY: It could be a big day for Chad Brown, and he looks loaded here. #1 FRONTIER MARKET hasn’t run a poor race in nearly two years, while #1A UNLEVERAGED gets a class test after two wins in a row downstate; #8 LEMONIST: Is another consistent sort who has hit the board in each of his last nine starts. He cuts back after two solid seconds at marathon distances, and a mile is probably a perfect trip for him; #5 KEEP QUIET: Rallied to be fourth earlier this meet against similar foes and didn’t have much of a pace to rate off of that day. He’d benefit from solid early fractions, and his usual race likely gets him a piece of this.

Atoka
Tap It to Win
Onward

#4 ATOKA: Settled for third in his debut after doing loads of heavy lifting early on. He debuted at a tough distance and adds Lasix here for a barn whose second-time starters are firing on all cylinders of late; #1 TAP IT TO WIN: Debuted with a second-place finish at Woodbine and comes in off of a bullet work over this surface. It’s tough to figure out whether or not Woodbine form will translate to the Spa, but he’s a logical favorite; #7 ONWARD: Hammered for $600,000 last September at Keeneland and has hinted at some precocity in the morning. This barn’s firsters are tough to figure out, but he does boast a fairly recent bullet drill.

Balon Rose
Charreada
Ocean Fire

#7 BALON ROSE: Flopped when favored earlier in the meet, but she may not have liked the yielding surface and that day’s winner has since come back to win again. This seems like a softer group, and firmer going should help her; #2 CHARREADA: Just missed when second beaten a neck downstate and stretches back out to two turns. There’s some early speed signed on here, and she figures to be running well late; #6 OCEAN FIRE: Comes back to turf after a failed dirt try and is another that exits the same July 26 event as my top choice. Her debut over firm turf at Belmont was pretty good, as she was third behind a recent stakes-winner.

Payne
Performer
T Loves a Fight

#7 PAYNE: Didn’t have a great trip (nor, to be blunt, the best ride) when third at 4/5 earlier this meet. Jose Ortiz hops back aboard, and a repeat of either of his races downstate would make him a likely winner; #11 PERFORMER: Graduated off a long layoff last time out and tries winners for the first time. The outside draw should help, but regression potential is there and I’m wondering if he wants longer than this distance; #8 T LOVES A FIGHT: Has gotten quite good lately and was most recently beaten less than two lengths when fourth in a tough state-bred stakes race. He won three in a row before that and, like my top pick, would benefit from a fast pace.

Mitole
Promises Fulfilled
Bon Raison

#3 MITOLE: Had to contend with a rail draw and an in-form Imperial Hint in the Grade 1 A.G. Vanderbilt last month. The draw improves, and his rival is nowhere to be found, which means I’m inclined to give him another shot; #1 PROMISES FULFILLED: Is a logical alternative to the likely favorite. He got back on the beam last time out in the Grade 2 John Nerud, and he figures to be prominent early; #5 BON RAISON: Likes Saratoga and would benefit from a pace meltdown. He made several moves when winning the Tale of the Cat, and he could clunk up for a piece of this at a big price.

Separationofpowers
Mia Mischief
Special Relativity

#4 SEPARATIONOFPOWERS: Won last year’s Grade 1 Test and is proven at this seven-furlong distance. She’s been freshened ahead of this race and could sit a dream trip just off the pace; #5 MIA MISCHIEF: Was shuffled back a bit in the Grade 2 Honorable Miss and never recovered when fourth behind a loose-on-the-lead winner. She’s better than she showed that day, and a return to form would give her a big shot; #1 SPECIAL RELATIVITY: Takes a big jump up in class but certainly deserves the opportunity. She’s undefeated in four local starts and won a minor stakes race at this route a few weeks ago.

Shancelot
Hog Creek Hustle
Borracho

#1 SHANCELOT: Reminded some fans of Groovy with his romp in the Grade 2 Amsterdam, where he earned a 121 Beyer Speed Figure. Anything close to that, and the rest of this field will be fighting for second; #9 HOG CREEK HUSTLE: Was last seen finishing with a flourish to win the Grade 1 Woody Stephens on Belmont Day. If Shancelot bounces, he may be the one they have to hold off in the stretch; #4 BORRACHO: Was impressive when winning an optional claimer at this route earlier in the meet. He loves this distance and is another that will be doing his best running late.

Mascha
Starship Jubilee
Fifty Five

#9 MASCHA: Gets a reluctant nod in a wide-open renewal of the Grade 2 Ballston Spa. Her American debut was a winning one, and she showed plenty of class overseas last year; #8 STARSHIP JUBILEE: Ran second in a pair of Grade 2 events at Woodbine and is very flexible. She can sit close to the pace or rate and make one run, which figures to give Jose Lezcano plenty of options; #2 FIFTY FIVE: Is cross-entered in a state-bred race Friday, but is a contender if she shows up here. She hasn’t finished out of the money in nearly two years and was most recently second in a Grade 3 event at Parx.

Elate
Midnight Bisou
Golden Award

#4 ELATE: Seems to be in peak form ahead of another try at the Grade 1 Personal Ensign. She was second in the controversial 2018 renewal and may be better than she was a season ago; #1 MIDNIGHT BISOU: Has reeled off five wins in a row and certainly merits respect. However, she’s 0-for-4 going longer than a mile and a sixteenth, and the rail draw is less than ideal; #6 GOLDEN AWARD: Sprang a mild upset in the Grade 3 Shuvee earlier in the meet and figures to be one of the pace-setters. If she can clear the field going into the first turn, she could dictate terms and hang on for a share.

R10

Ya Primo
Annals of Time
Channel Maker

#6 YA PRIMO: Ran well when second in the Grade 2 Bowling Green, which doubled as his U.S. debut. He may have needed that race off of a layoff, and improvement is logical second off the bench for a world-class barn; #7 ANNALS OF TIME: Looked good when cruising home against optional claiming foes earlier in the meet. At his best, he’s quite good, and this isn’t the strongest Grade 1 Sword Dancer renewal in recent history; #8 CHANNEL MAKER: Was beaten less than a length in the Bowling Green and was second in this race a season ago. He was a bit wide that day, and a smoother trip could make the difference here.

R11

Mucho Gusto
Tacitus
Looking At Bikinis

#7 MUCHO GUSTO: Ships in for Bob Baffert after giving Maximum Security all he could handle in the Grade 1 Haskell. His recent works are strong, and when in doubt, there are far worse strategies than going with Bob Baffert in a big race; #6 TACITUS: Had an eventful journey when second in the Grade 2 Jim Dandy. The blinkers come on, and his best is certainly good enough to beat these, but has he gotten to where he actively puts himself in bad spots?; #9 LOOKING AT BIKINIS: Didn’t run well when a distant third in the Curlin, but that was over a sloppy track and he may have bounced to boot. He’s continued to work well, and I think he’s got a shot to hit the board at a nice price.

R12

Fled
Discretionary Marq
Dowse’s Beach

#2 FLED: Has won two in a row since being switched to the turf, and most recently rallied from way back to top state-breds at this route. A repeat effort would put him right there in a wide-open event; #11 DISCRETIONARY MARQ: Drew a terrible post but is absolutely capable of winning with his best effort. He’s finished in the top two in eight of 14 career outings and should be on or near the lead early; #13 DOWSE’S BEACH: May not draw in, and will have to contend with an awful draw if he does, but he’s 5-for-8 at Saratoga and won here earlier in the meet. When Jason Servis gets horses on the right track, they tend to stay there.

R13

Magic Star
Five Alarm Robin
Keepme in Thegame

#5 MAGIC STAR: Seems well-meant in her unveiling and could cap off a big day for her connections. Her dam won a Grade 1 as a 2-year-old and is a half to Grade 1 winner Overanalyze, so she’s got every right to be a runner; #9 FIVE ALARM ROBIN: Has improved in every start and was a close-up third downstate. Luis Saez sees fit to ride back, and she seems like an overlay at her 8-1 morning line price; #10 KEEPME IN THEGAME: Ran well when third in her debut, which came going two turns at Keeneland. She returns to a similar route here, and given her pedigree, she should embrace this journey.