Vanderbilt | Andrew Champagne

SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (7/30/22)

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $798.20

If you’ve read my work for the past few years, you know my girlfriend is an elementary school teacher. She’s preparing to go back for the start of the academic year in a few weeks (they start earlier out here), and is doing everything she can to make her public school, fifth-grade classroom the best learning environment it can be.

In that vein, she’s set up a drive to raise money to purchase supplies rooted in STEAM concepts (science, technology, engineering, arts, and math). Times are tough for a lot of people right now, but if you’re out there looking for a worthy cause to support, I can assure you this checks that box.

Click here if you want to learn more or are interested in donating. Let’s help a bunch of fifth-graders learn by doing!

FRIDAY’S RESULTS: I took a shot against an 8/5 favorite in the fifth race, one that backfired when it won as clearly the best horse. I dropped $30.

SATURDAY’S PLAY: I’ll focus on the early part of the card, and I sincerely hope we get the 5-1 morning line price on #3 TATUM in the opener. I’ll have a $15 win bet, and I’ll single him in $5 doubles ending with #6 C’EST MAGNIFIQUE, #7 MONTEPULCIANO, and #8 DECCAN PRINCE in the second.

TOTAL WAGERED: $30.

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Jackie’s Warrior, Race 8
Longshot: Big Bobby, Race 5

Tatum
Swiss Guard
Capture the Flag

#3 TATUM: Is the only horse in this field with a start, and it was a good one. He missed by a nose at Parx, has fired a bullet drill since then, and attracts his rider from Philadelphia to come north to Saratoga for just one mount; #2 SWISS GUARD: Has a few solid gate drills for Steve Asmussen and is bred to be a good one. He’s a son of American Pharoah, and his dam is a half to Grade 1-placed runner Holiday Soiree; #5 CAPTURE THE FLAG: Is bred very, very well and has worked consistently for Hall of Famer Shug McGaughey ahead of his debut. However, the fantastic pedigree also says he probably wants turf, so there’s a chance this is a tightener for another race down the line.

C’Est Magnifique
Deccan Prince
Montepulciano

#6 C’EST MAGNIFIQUE: Looks like another well-meant first-time starter from the Chad Brown barn and will likely be bet accordingly. This son of Kitten’s Joy is out of a Grade 3-placed mare, one who’s kin to multiple stakes-winner Royal Son; #8 DECCAN PRINCE: Debuted with an OK third in a turf sprint downstate and stretches out at second asking. Blinkers go on, he’s posted a recent bullet drill, and the pedigree says the added distance shouldn’t be a problem; #7 MONTEPULCIANO: Hammered for $210,000 last September at Keeneland and debuts for Todd Pletcher. The recent seven-furlong drill over the Oklahoma turf course is noteworthy, as is the presence of Irad Ortiz, Jr., who landed here when he likely had a few options.

Wolfe County
Endowed
Bold Victory

#9 WOLFE COUNTY: Has run well twice since moving to the Ken McPeek barn and broke his maiden going a bit longer last time out. Prior to that, he just missed by a head behind one who came back to win again, and I think he’s turned a corner and sitting on another nice outing; #8 ENDOWED: Has stepped forward with every start and was second last time out in his first try against winners. This is his first two-turn try, but this son of Belmont winner Tonalist may still have room to improve in just his fourth career outing; #7 BOLD VICTORY: Has won twice this season and returns to a two-turn route of ground for this one. He’s performed well over such configurations in the past, even running fourth in a $400,000 stakes race back in 2020.

Doozy Batz (MTO)
Devilly
Diamant Damhsa

#8 DEVILLY: Is probably in a “now or never” situation, going back to the maiden claiming ranks in search of her first career win in her 11th career outing. She’s been competitive against better groups and looms large on speed figures, though, and she seems like the class of this bunch; #5 DIAMANT DAMHSA: Enjoyed a perfect trip when third going seven furlongs downstate and cuts back a bit for this event. She’s got the early speed to be prominent early, and perhaps she’s getting better with experience for one of the top trainers in the game; #11 SPARKLING WATER: Gets back to the turf for the first time since her debut and merits a look at a bonkers price. She’s by Get Stormy, out of a War Front mare, and boasts a 354 turf Tomlinson rating, the second-best such number in the field.

Bank On Shea
Amundson
Big Bobby

#1 BANK ON SHEA: Has won several stakes races and gets a bit of class relief in this optional claiming event. His prior connections saw fit to try the Grade 1 Carter earlier in the year, and a return to that early-2022 form would make him the one to beat, even from a tricky inside post; #4 AMUNDSON: Won here a season ago and would certainly move forward on a wet track. However, that’s not a requirement for him to run well. He exits several strong races for the level, and he could sit an ideal stalking trip; #7 BIG BOBBY: Has every right to improve second off a long layoff, and his 2021 form was quite strong. That season included a pair of second-place finishes over this track, and his record looks far better if you toss the races directly before and after the five-month break.

Marvelous Maude
Blissful
Wicked Groove

#1 MARVELOUS MAUDE: Has never finished out of the money in seven career starts and makes a lot of sense here. Her last-out score against state-breds at Belmont was sharp, and while this is probably a tougher group, she should have plenty of pace to run at; #5 BLISSFUL: Faced a tall task in her first try off a long layoff and had too much to do in a race without much early zip. Still, she was beaten less than two lengths in a stakes race, and she looked good when winning here at first asking last summer; #6 WICKED GROOVE: Goes to the Rob Atras barn second off the layoff, and it’s intriguing to see Flavien Prat aboard. She’s run very well going two turns on turf, and her eight turf starts include four wins and seven top-three finishes.

Tommy Gun (MTO)
Mister Chairman
Built to Last

#5 MISTER CHAIRMAN: Was a fast-closing second in his debut, which came against maiden claimers. This barn protects him here, though, and with the amount of speed horses signed on, this late-runner stands to benefit from the likely race shape; #1 BUILT TO LAST: Was clear by three lengths in mid-stretch last time out before finishing third behind a next-out winner. The cutback in distance could suit him, and he has the early speed to make the rail draw an asset; #4 FEATHERS ROAD: Has been a consistent check-getter at this level and figures to take plenty of betting money. However, he’s got a history of finding trouble, and it’s tough for me to endorse those runners at short prices. Given his likely odds, I’ll try to beat him.

Jackie’s Warrior
Willy Boi
Ny Traffic

#4 JACKIE’S WARRIOR: Has done plenty to earn the mantle of America’s top sprinter and looms large in the Grade 1 A.G. Vanderbilt. Four of his 11 wins have come here at Saratoga, including a huge one over Life Is Good in last year’s Grade 1 Allen Jerkens. Anything close to his best would make for quite a show here; #2 WILLY BOI: Is 3-for-3 since a trainer switch, and one of those wins was a score in the Grade 3 Smile Sprint at Gulfstream Park. It’s possible he’s a “horse for the course,” but if his form travels north with him, he could rally for a piece of it; #3 NY TRAFFIC: Comes in off of a pair of scores in listed stakes races, and his lone loss this season came to Speaker’s Corner in the Grade 2 Gulfstream Park Mile. His local works are sharp, and he’s certainly found life as a sprinter after contesting Triple Crown races in 2020.

Epicenter
Early Voting
Zandon

#2 EPICENTER: Did everything but win the Kentucky Derby and rallied for second in the Preakness despite a slow start. This short field should provide no such obstacles. I expect him to sit his preferred trip, and I think that journey will make him tough in the Grade 2 Jim Dandy; #4 EARLY VOTING: Got the trip in the Preakness and had enough left late to hold off Epicenter, which isn’t easy to do. His lone loss to date came to eventual Belmont winner Mo Donegal in the Grade 2 Wood Memorial, and further improvement could allow him to keep rolling; #5 ZANDON: Won the Grade 1 Blue Grass and looked like a possible winner turning for home in the Derby. However, he never got past Epicenter, and while he’s a definite Travers contender later in the season, I’m concerned he won’t get the pace he may want here given the short field and lack of early zip.

R10

Capensis
Three Jokers (MTO)
Ricochet

#12 CAPENSIS: Hammered for $2 million in 2020 and looked every bit of that price when he stormed home clear by five lengths in his debut earlier this month. This is his first try against winners, and the post position isn’t ideal, but there’s reason to believe he’s simply a freak and much better than this bunch; #8 RICOCHET: Does his best running around two turns and came home a winner downstate against starter allowance company. Mike Maker’s barn is doing very well to this point in the meet, and this one’s versatility should give Luis Saez some options; #10 COLOSSEO: Makes his American debut and gets Lasix for the first time, which is always a notable angle. He got very good last season, when he was second behind the ultra-talented St. Mark’s Basilica in one Group 1 race and chased eventual Breeders’ Cup Mile winner Space Blues home in another.

R11

Big Agenda
Monarchs Glen
Jack the Cat

#3 BIG AGENDA: Has won twice this year, including a two-back event at this level downstate, and earns a tepid nod in a wide-open turf race. He’s won seven times in 33 races, with 20 in-the-money finishes, and he’s a consistent sort that always seems to run the same race; #16 MONARCHS GLEN: Needs a lot of luck to run here but is a must-use if he does. He hasn’t won in quite a while, but most of his races have come against far classier opponents, and that may be enough to carry him through despite a very wide post; #7 JACK THE CAT: Has proven to be very sharp at this level and goes first off the claim for a barn that excels with new acquisitions. The rider switch to Joel Rosario is a big one, and the faster they go early, the better this one’s chances figure to be.

SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (7/31/21)

Posted on July 29, 2021 by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $983.60

These are the cards that make Saratoga special. We’ll see a trio of graded stakes races with some of the most well-known horses in the sport. Belmont Stakes hero Essential Quality headlines the Jim Dandy, Whitmore runs up against a strong field in the A.G. Vanderbilt, and multiple Grade 1 winner Channel Maker makes his first start after a trip abroad in the Bowling Green.

Combine that slate with a bunch of big fields in undercard races, and you have a card that should give even the most jaded handicapper a jolt of excitement. On a day like this, you only need to be right once or twice to have a profitable afternoon, and that’s all I can possibly ask for.

FRIDAY’S RESULTS: Collaborate loomed boldly in the Curlin, but seemingly forgot how to turn left with about a quarter-mile to go. I got a bit of a thrill at odds of 8-1, but ultimately dropped $20.

SATURDAY’S PLAY: I’m focusing on the Vanderbilt, because I don’t like #2 MISCHEVIOUS ALEX at all. It goes as the eighth race on the program, and I’ll box #1 LEXITONIAN, #6 WHITMORE, and #9 SPECIAL RESERVE in $2 exactas. I’ll also use those three horses in the middle of a $2 Pick Three starting in the seventh. I’ll use #2 INVINCIBLE GAL and #8 LOVE AND THUNDER there and single #5 ESSENTIAL QUALITY in the ninth, the Jim Dandy.

TOTAL WAGERED: $24.

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Essential Quality, Race 9
Longshot: Lexitonian, Race 8

Master Game
Kevin’s Folly
Woodline

#2 MASTER GAME: Hammered for $300,000 last year and has several flashy gate drills for soon-to-be Hall of Famer Todd Pletcher. Expectations are high for offspring of young sire Mastery, and this one looks pretty precocious; #3 KEVIN’S FOLLY: Also shows a solid work pattern coming into his unveiling. He’s bred to want far more distance than this 5 1/2-furlong event, but Tom Amoss has already unveiled one flashy 2-year-old this meet and may have more bullets in the chamber; #6 WOODLINE: Has a major experience edge on the field and was second behind a runaway winner that ran in the Grade 3 Sanford earlier in the meet. He does have some early speed, but he appears to have hooked some promising first-time starters and may need to improve further to win.

Majestic Sky
Eight Weeks Long
Gateway Guardian

#12 MAJESTIC SKY: Is a tepid top selection in the first of several very befuddling turf races on the Saturday program. He was inexplicably rated behind a very slow pace last time out at Belmont, and in this event, he sure looks like not just the main speed, but like a horse whose hand is forced by the far outside draw; #3 EIGHT WEEKS LONG: Exits the same race as my top pick and ran third that day while sitting a bit closer to the pace than usual. That may have been an aberration given the slow pace, but his usual effort would give him a shot; #4 GATEWAY GUARDIAN: Didn’t do much running first time out, but debuting in a one-mile race is no easy task and David Donk’s horses usually need a race or two to get going. I think he could improve at a price, and it wouldn’t take a huge step forward to get a piece of this.

Zilla entry
Cathy Naz
Saratoga Beauty

ZILLA ENTRY: Both #1 MISS LIANA and #1A FLAT AWESOME JENNY could win this, and they certainly look like the class of the field. The former has a bit more tactical speed and returns to the right level, so I’d give her the slight edge if I had to choose one; #3 CATHY NAZ: Has run a few solid races over this track and seems to be working well ahead of her first start since January. Saez sees fit to ride for Bond, and he was aboard for her one recent win; #4 SARATOGA BEAUTY: Makes her first start off the claim for Ray Handal, whose barn may be starting to heat up. Her form this past winter and spring was solid, and she’s got more tactical speed than she showed last time out downstate.

High Tone
Pivotal Run
Brennan’s War

#7 HIGH TONE: Ran very well in his first start since last July when second in a two-turn turf route at Churchill. That was against open company, and he’s back against New York-breds in his first start for new trainer Ron Moquett; #3 PIVOTAL RUN: Had every right to need his last-out effort off of such a long layoff, and he was claimed out of that race by George Weaver, who excels with new acquisitions. He was a good second at this route in his debut last summer, and a return to two turns could help him find his form; #8 BRENNAN’S WAR: Made a bit of a move when third in his debut last month, and that effort came from a barn whose first-time starters don’t often win. I’m not sure what he ran against that day, but figures-wise, it was a solid effort that gives him a chance here.

Honey Money
Behind the Couch
Out First

#5 HONEY MONEY: Is far better than she showed last time out, when she faded to sixth in the mud earlier in the meet. She’s no fan of wet racetracks, and she reeled off three wins in a row over fast surfaces prior to that misfire; #4 BEHIND THE COUCH: Earned her first win in quite a while last time out after several close calls following a claim by John Salzman. This is her first start against New York-bred competition since last June, and perhaps the lightbulb has gone off; #8 OUT FIRST: Just never seemed like she was interested last time out, and I have no problem drawing a line through that clunker. She’s been competitive at this level many times, and she’d benefit from a pace meltdown.

Causin’ Mayhem (MTO)
Ohtwoohthreefive
Doctor Davis

#7 OHTWOOHTHREEFIVE: Was very impressive when second in his debut downstate. He rated well off of a slow pace but made up enough ground to finish second, beaten just two lengths. He’s bred to love two turns and will be formidable if he holds his form; #10 DOCTOR DAVIS: Has been working very fast for a Bill Mott trainee ahead of his debut. Mott’s first-time starters don’t usually turn in bullet drills, as he did on July 2nd, and he may be talented enough to have a say in this one at a bit of a price; #1 SWEEPING GIANT: Is one of two Todd Pletcher runners that will debut here. I prefer this one over #4 ROYAL SPIRIT. His dam was ultra-classy turf runner Isabella Sings, who did her best work going long.

Trumpet Lilly (MTO)
Invincible Gal
Love And Thunder

#2 INVINCIBLE GAL: Was favored in the Tepin Stakes but went up against a very unfavorable race shape, as the wire-to-wire winner coasted on an easy pace. Blinkers go on, she gets Lasix for the first time, and these waters certainly seem shallower; #8 LOVE AND THUNDER: Is a logical favorite after a tough beat last time out. She nearly overcame a pretty slow pace that day, and the third-place finisher from that event came back to win at next asking; #7 HIGH OPINION: Cuts back in distance after finishing second going a mile and a quarter at Belmont. She’s been second three times in four tries against winners, and while her figures give her a chance, sometimes horses turn into pack animals that have a tough time passing others late.

Special Reserve
Whitmore
Lexitonian

#9 SPECIAL RESERVE: Has really turned a corner since being claimed by Mike Maker in February. He’s won four of his last five starts, including two stakes races, and between his tactical speed and the cushy outside draw, I think he’s the one to beat in the Grade 1 A.G. Vanderbilt; #6 WHITMORE: Is one of the coolest horses in training and returns to Saratoga for another race or two at the summer place to be. He’s still competitive at the highest level as an 8-year-old, and any hesitation here is because it’s his first start off a layoff and he may need a race to get going; #1 LEXITONIAN: Is a nose and a head away from being a two-time Grade 1 winner. His Met Mile was too terrible to be true, but his two-back effort in the Grade 1 Churchill Downs was excellent, as was a recent local workout. If he’s right, he’s got a shot to take this at a big price.

Essential Quality
Masqueparade
Weyburn

#5 ESSENTIAL QUALITY: Is probably the top 3-year-old in training and looms large in the Grade 2 Jim Dandy. The three-time Grade 1 winner earned a 109 Beyer Speed Figure in winning the Belmont Stakes, and anything remotely close to that would easily dispatch this bunch; #2 MASQUEPARADE: Has moved forward significantly in his last several starts, one of which was a win in the Grade 3 Ohio Derby. He beat a decent field that day and has every right to be getting better midway through his 3-year-old season; #3 WEYBURN: Gave eventual Haskell winner Mandaloun all he could handle in the Pegasus at Monmouth last time out and has shown two turns is not a problem. The recent string of bullet drills can’t be ignored, and neither can the presence of Irad Ortiz, Jr.

R10

Channel Maker
Cross Border
Moon Over Miami

#5 CHANNEL MAKER: Emerged as the East Coast’s top turf horse a season ago and makes his first start following an expedition to the Arabian Peninsula. Between his back class and the fact that he looks like the lone speed, I think he’ll sit an ideal trip and be very tough to run down in the Grade 2 Bowling Green; #2 CROSS BORDER: Won this race a season ago by DQ and does his best running over this turf course. He hasn’t won in a while, but it isn’t like he hasn’t been competitive and perhaps he’ll relish a return to upstate New York; #7 MOON OVER MIAMI: Wants to sit back and make one run, and has done so to fair success this season with three in-the-money finishes in graded stakes races. That includes a close-up third last time out downstate, and he’s shown enough class to be respected here.

R11

Villainous (MTO)
Morocco
Hieroglyphics

#3 MOROCCO: Takes a gigantic drop second off the claim, which can be seen as a good or bad thing. In this case, I think he’s coming back to the right level, and if he channels his form from this past winter, he could be more than good enough to beat this bunch; #8 HIEROGLYPHICS: Has won three of six at Saratoga, and the most recent score here last summer kick-started a run of four wins in six starts. One of them was a win at this level downstate, and if he brought his form to the barn of new trainer Dominick Schettino, he’ll have a big shot; #7 TIZZARUNNER: Was second last time out at this level at Churchill, and he put forth that effort despite having to close into a slow pace. He’s a major player here, but this isn’t an easy spot for the level and he may want more pace than he’s likely to get in the Saturday finale.

SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (7/25/20)

Posted on July 23, 2020 by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $875

If you’ve been following New York racing for any length of time, you know Gary Contessa. He’s won thousands of races from the Grade 1 level down to claimers, and he’s emerged as a true ambassador for the sport.

I got the chance to sit down with him on this week’s episode of “Champagne and J.D.” We spoke for 45 minutes and hit a lot of topics, including why he stepped away from training and his thoughts on the current state of the game.

It was a blast to sit down with Gary, and I really hope you all enjoy it.

FRIDAY’S RESULTS: Right idea, lousy execution. I didn’t like the favorites in the sixth, but I landed on the wrong longshot and dropped $20.

SATURDAY’S PLAY: I’m going to play doubles and Pick Threes keying one of my best bets of the day. #10 STANDUP is a single for me in the fifth. I’ll single him in $5 doubles starting in the fourth with #3 LADY C, #4 GONE GLIMMERING, and #5 WEDONTBELIEVEHER, and in $5 doubles using #3 PREAMBLE and #6 COLTANDMISSISSIPPI in the sixth. I’ll also play a $1 Pick Three starting in the fourth that uses all of these runners.

TOTAL WAGERED: $31.

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Sistercharlie, Race 3
Longshot: Preamble, Race 6

Speightstown Gal
The Important One
Jc’s Shooting Star

#1 SPEIGHTSTOWN GAL: Held on to win a strong race for the level last time out in her first start since November. That day’s third-place finisher and runner-up came back to run 1-2 earlier in the meet, and this one should be running late; #5 THE IMPORTANT ONE: Came from out of the clouds to take her turf debut downstate, and that running style could help her here. Rosario rides back for Asmussen, and the recent turf bullet is intriguing; #4 JC’S SHOOTING STAR: Drops way down in class after chasing Intercontinental champion Newspaperofrecord, Come Dancing, and others during the past year. It wouldn’t be a shock if the shallower waters are what this mare needs to turn things around.

Midnight Surprise
Munnings Muse
Vivazano

#7 MIDNIGHT SURPRISE: Has been working well of late for Todd Pletcher and doesn’t seem to have caught the toughest field in her debut. If she runs to her drills, I think she’ll be a handful; #5 MUNNINGS MUSE: Finished second in her career debut in June of last year before going to the sidelines for 13 months. She’s been working consistently ahead of her return, but this barn’s runners sometimes need their first races back; #2 VIVAZANO: Was a solid third in her unveiling and will look to rebound after misfiring in the slop two weeks ago. A return to the first-out form would make her a factor for part-owner and legendary turf writer Steven Crist.

Sistercharlie
Starship Jubilee
Call Me Love

#5 SISTERCHARLIE: Makes her long-awaited return to the races and looms large in this spot. Even if she’s not fully-cranked, it will take significant improvement from one of her opponents to keep her out of the winner’s circle; #6 STARSHIP JUBILEE: Has won five of her last six starts, and several of those wins came in runaway fashion. She’s been working well at Woodbine and certainly deserves the shot at my top pick; #1 CALL ME LOVE: Seems best of the rest for red-hot connections. Her second behind Rushing Fall in the Grade 3 Beaugay two back was fine, and a cutback to this distance could help her.

Gone Glimmering
Wedontbelieveher
Lady C

#4 GONE GLIMMERING: Was ambitiously spotted by Tom Amoss last season and has dropped down to the claiming ranks. She stepped forward with a good second against similar last time out at Churchill, and Jose Ortiz sees fit to ride; #5 WEDONTBELIEVEHER: Showed versatility last month when rallying from well back against slightly lesser company. She was claimed by Linda Rice that day, and she’s got a strong record with new acquisitions; #3 LADY C: Has racked up the frequent flyer miles this season with races at Delta, Oaklawn, and Thistledown. She’s shown an ability to rate off the pace and rally, and this seems like the trip she’ll get here.

Standup
Unprecedented
Our Troubadour

#10 STANDUP: Rallied for third while widest of all downstate against similar and should get a great setup here. There’s tons of speed signed on, and Joel Rosario should be able to take him back before making one big run; #6 UNPRECEDENTED: Had an eventful trip when second in his first turf sprint, and they may have found what this one wants to do. These are deeper waters, but this is another closer that could benefit from a meltdown; #1 OUR TROUBADOUR: Put it all together when graduating in a maiden claimer for state-breds earlier this month. This is his first try against winners, but he could stalk the pace from the rail and have first run turning for home.

Coltandmississippi
Preamble
Skyler’s Scramjet

#6 COLTANDMISSISSIPPI: Has changed hands a lot over the past year and goes first off the claim for Dominick Schettino. He has tactical speed, but will likely stalk a hot pace, and that could put him in a prime position when the real running starts; #3 PREAMBLE: Looked like a legit prospect when he reeled off three straight wins to start his career. He hasn’t won since, but the last-out third against slightly better is encouraging and he’ll certainly have pace to run at; #4 SKYLER’S SCRAMJET: Was second in the Grade 1 Carter last season but has seen his form go south over the past four starts. This is a concerning drop, but of the speed horses, I think he’s the most likely to emerge from an early duel with the lead.

Lonesome Fugitive
Proven Strategies
Perjury Trap

#8 LONESOME FUGITIVE: Rallied to graduate over yielding going last time out and takes on winners for the first time. That race came back very fast on figures, and with closers doing well on turf this meet, he looks imposing; #7 PROVEN STRATEGIES: Chased Decorated Invader in the Grade 2 Pennine Ridge last out, and that one came back to win another Grade 2 last week. He certainly looks like the main speed, and if he gets left alone early, look out; #6 PERJURY TRAP: Hasn’t been seen since breaking his maiden in his turf debut last November at Aqueduct. He may need to take a step forward to contend first off the bench, but he’s in the right barn to do that.

Pletcher entry
Parsimony
Leitone

PLETCHER ENTRY: Both halves can win, but I lean to #1A MONEY MOVES, who is 2-for-2 and tries two turns for the first time. He’s got the pedigree to love this trip, and the steady diet of five-furlong works likely put some stamina into him; #3 PARSIMONY: Has criss-crossed the globe this year and run up against some tough horses. He was most recently third in the Grade 2 Suburban behind Tacitus, and he may emerge as the main speed here; #7 LEITONE: Has plenty of back form and goes first off the claim for a barn that can pop at a price with new acquisitions. He has speed, but doesn’t necessarily need the lead in order to run well.

Blackjack Davey (MTO)
Barleewon
Mo Ready

#4 BARLEEWON: Has taken a step forward since coming back to New York and cruised to an easy score last month against maidens. He faced winners for the first time, but further improvement could make him tough; #7 MO READY: Hasn’t run since December but has worked steadily for Todd Pletcher and graduated here last summer. This isn’t the toughest return race in the condition book, and he’ll be a major player if he’s ready; #3 SIMPLY: Won going long at first asking and was a fast-closing third in his New York debut. He may need more pace to be at his best, but at least you know the two-turn route of ground won’t be a major issue.

R10

Volatile
Whitmore
Mind Control

#4 VOLATILE: Has emerged as one of the fastest horses in the country this season. His 112 Beyer Speed Figure from the Aristides is justified, and a repeat effort could mean a freaky performance; #2 WHITMORE: Is one of the most fun horses in training to root for. The 7-year-old has raced at a high level for his entire career, and among his wins was a score in the Grade 1 Forego here two summers ago; #5 MIND CONTROL: May have hated the slop in the Grade 1 Carter, which was won by next-out Met Mile winner Vekoma. He’s won two Grade 1 races in as many local starts, and while he may be at his best going an extra furlong, his usual form could absolutely get him a piece of this.

R11

Timeless Journey
Brovia
Eighty Seven North

#5 TIMELESS JOURNEY: Was one-paced in her debut, but that proved to be a live race. The third-place finisher came flying to graduate earlier this week, and Rosario climbs aboard for Christophe Clement; #7 BROVIA: May have needed her return race off a long break, but she didn’t run badly when beaten three lengths at this level. She gets a big rider switch to Irad Ortiz, Jr., and improvement is logical second off the bench; #2 EIGHTY SEVEN NORTH: Won’t be involved in win wagers of mine given her 0-for-14 lifetime mark, but she’s a closer that has hit the board many times at this level. She goes second off the bench here and could come rolling for a piece of it to spice up the exotics.

GUEST COLUMN: Andrew’s Dad Comes West (Plus Andrew’s Plays of the Day: 1/22/20)

Posted on January 21, 2020 by Andrew Champagne

RECORD: 13-7

Editor’s note: The reason I haven’t been posting daily blogs here is because my father’s been in town and we’ve been busy. I’d been posting on Twitter up until Tuesday, when I neglected to put forth a play. As a result, I’ll have two down below…but first, allow me to show you what turned me into the writer I became.

My dad flew west Friday, and the convergence of several horrible circumstances and lots of rotten luck hit him hard. Like a Champagne does, he wrote about it on Sunday, and I’m putting his chronicle here as a guest column. If you say he’s a better writer than I am, I won’t be offended!

“In late December I found some GREAT fares on Southwest to the west coast, so I scheduled an impromptu visit to my son for the long MLK Day weekend. I paid for the outgoing leg with points and thought that was great. Little did I know…

Departure on Friday was delayed. As the Southwest rep announced it, “We are waiting for one last passenger to exit the aircraft.” She neglected to mention that the guy was exiting on a stretcher after an apparent heart attack. Then we began to board – briefly. We were once again delayed with an announcement that they could not depart until the canister of oxygen the heart attack victim used up was replaced, and they had to wait for another aircraft to arrive to grab one. God forbid the maintenance people should have spares. So then we boarded and sat on the tarmac for another half hour (paperwork… BS, I was taking it personally by this point), blowing through the departure time for my initial connecting flight in Baltimore.

Now the fun starts. I got a text from Southwest telling me they’d re-booked me on a flight through Austin which would get me to the west coast about 5 hours later than my initial itinerary laid out. When we arrived in Baltimore they coasted us into the gate right next to the gate the Austin flight was leaving from – so we had a great view of MY flight pushing back.

Another text arrived immediately, informing me I had again been re-booked on a flight through Denver. The texts were coming fast and furious now, as I was told soon after that this flight had been delayed 3 hours.

And then it was cancelled.

There were no options to get out of Baltimore Friday on Southwest at this point since most of the Midwest connect points were socked in with the storm and all existing flights were sold out to people who’d been screwed before they got to me. The last text I got said they were re-booking me through Salt Lake City: 48 hours later. I don’t think so.

Enter my son, who found me a nonstop redeye on United Airlines that left late Friday evening (from Washington) and would get me to San Francisco an hour after midnight, so off I went to Southwest baggage claim to get my suitcase (such as it was, as I was to find out 2 days later). After an hour and a half, they told me they’d given up trying to find it, and off I went on a 60 mile Lyft ride to Dulles Airport. For those keeping score at home, the Lyft (with tip) cost $94. The flight (with $39 extra for a couple more inches of leg room) was $563. So off I went on a six hour nonstop flight headed west in the middle seat surrounded by screaming children – and at this point I was about ready to join them.

While I was flying, my son was shopping. A pair of dress pants, a polo shirt, and some toiletries later, we can add another $75 or so to the extra costs of this mess. But I DID get to where I was going.

So Saturday, off we went to the FABULOUS Golden Gate Fields with an eye toward recouping some of this money – broken up by several unfruitful calls to Southwest’s Oakland Airport baggage claim. They kept telling me that the last time my bag was scanned was in Baltimore and that it would eventually catch up with me – then, my last call produced a new tidbit, that the bag was now in Salt Lake City. This meant it got there more than 24 hours before I would have, had I kept the last re-book they set up for me.

After dinner the call from Southwest came. My bag was now in Oakland. Per the poor guy who had to call me, “It has some damage.” So Sunday morning brought another airport excursion. I dealt with a very nice lady who brought my bag out of their storage room IN A TRASH BAG – and told me the damage happened in freaking BALTIMORE. This meant I was intentionally not given what was left of my bag there.

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I ended up having to go through everything that was in the suitcase to identify specific damage. They gave me sort of a zip bag to move stuff into after telling me they usually replace suitcases but they didn’t have any of those (of course). Casualties were a pair of shoes, a pair of jeans, some socks, and a couple of golf shirts. Surprisingly, much of my stuff survived the trip – especially since the bag looked like it had been attacked by the tiger who says “Hello, Lunch!!” in the Dr. Doolittle ad.

So… a $175 travel voucher, refund of the points I paid for the trip with, refunded Early Bird boarding charges, and a check for $200 (they originally didn’t have any of those, either) later, I’m back in Concord…for now… the baggage lady at Oakland encouraged me keep bothering them… and after receiving ANOTHER text TODAY re-booking me for January 29, I am NOT in a forgiving mood.

The saga continues.”

– – – – –

WEDNESDAY’S PLAYS: Because I didn’t have anything Tuesday, I’m putting forth two plays for Wednesday. In SEC action, Alabama, a team that’s won three of its last four (including a victory over Auburn), goes to Vanderbilt, a squad that’s winless in conference play. The nine-point spread hits me as too small, and I think the Crimson Tide covers it with ease. Additionally, in small-college hoops, Navy travels to Boston University, and both teams can score. Because of that, I’m taking the over on the total, which is at 127.5 as of this writing.

SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (7/27/19)

Posted on July 25, 2019 by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $805

Over the past few years, I’ve wondered aloud why the Curlin Stakes is carded for the same week as the Jim Dandy. Every year, without fail, an ungraded, $100,000 race takes one or two horses that may have been contenders in Saratoga’s main prep for the Travers. Simply put, it doesn’t make any sense to me.

Here’s the idea I seem to pitch annually: Move the Curlin to Travers Day. I’d rather lose a few 30-1 shots from that race than lose 8-1 shots from the Jim Dandy. This would give the Curlin a similar purpose to that of the Easy Goer, which is run on the Belmont Stakes undercard. It would be a far better fit on the calendar in that spot, and I sincerely hope rational logic prevails sooner rather than later.

FRIDAY’S RESULTS: Doubles were rendered null and void when the second race was moved from turf to dirt.

SATURDAY’S PLAY: I’ve never been a real believer in this year’s bunch of American turf horses (aside from Bricks and Mortar). With that in mind, I’ll put some money behind Chilean invader #3 YA PRIMO in race 10, the Grade 2 Bowling Green. I’ll put $10 on him to win and place, and I’ll also play $5 doubles singling him that start in the ninth (the Grade 1 A.G. Vanderbilt) with #1 MITOLE and #4 FIRENZE FIRE.

TOTAL WAGERED: $30

– – – – –

BEST BET: Grandview entry, Race 4
LONGSHOT: Ya Primo, Race 10

Teachable Moment
Wild Weekend
Blacktop Legend

#3 TEACHABLE MOMENT: Takes a big drop for formidable connections in just his second start of the season. A return to his 2018 form would almost certainly be good enough to beat these; #8 WILD WEEKEND: Debuts for Joe Sharp and sports several solid works ahead of his unveiling. This barn has had success with firsters in maiden claimers, and he may be a square price; #6 BLACKTOP LEGEND: Cuts back in distance after tiring a bit going a mile downstate. His lone turf sprint to date was OK, and Rosario riding back is a plus.

Rapido Gatta
Doll Collection
Quasar

#1 RAPIDO GATTA: Raced very wide when third last time out at Belmont. The rail draw, while not ideal, should ensure she covers less ground, and she seems to have enough early zip to establish position; #3 DOLL COLLECTION: Regally-bred daughter of Tapit and star sprinter Groupie Doll cuts back in distance after finishing second going a mile at Churchill. The blinkers seem to have helped, and she may be on the improve; #7 QUASAR: Comes back to dirt after a failed experiment on turf last time out and also adds blinkers. Her races two and three back were fine, and the recent clunker could mean a solid price.

Flying P entry (MTO)
Mission Command
Spectrolite

#5 MISSION COMMAND: Clearly prefers the grass and relished a return to the lawn last month at Belmont. That race came at this level, and while this came up as a pretty salty race for the level, his best would make him a contender at a price; #8 SPECTROLITE: Drops in class for this event and certainly seems like the main speed in here. His lone start at this route was a win in a 2017 starter allowance, and he’s hit the board in 11 of 13 career outings; #6 SCOUT’S HONOR: Found himself on the lead last time out, and that’s not his game. The 10-year-old veteran is best when stalking the pace, and he may get that trip here.

Grandview entry
Kowalski
Complexifier

GRANDVIEW ENTRY: Both #1 SHOPLIFTED and #1A SOVIET can win this, and it wouldn’t be a shock if the two colts ran 1-2. I prefer the former, who fetched $800,000 earlier this year at auction and boasts a very strong gate drill on July 14th; #5 KOWALSKI: Ran pretty well when third in his debut, and this barn doesn’t usually have firsters ready to roll. His pedigree says he’ll get better with more experience; #7 COMPLEXIFIER: Will likely be a big price, as this barn’s horses usually need a race or two to get going. However, his workouts are sharp, and I think he has a big shot to outrun his odds.

Control Group (MTO)
Emaraaty
Keep Quiet

#7 EMARAATY: Makes his first start in more than a year after coming over from Europe, where he ran against some of the best horses on the continent. His running lines are dotted with names like Expert Eye, U S Navy Flag, and Mendelssohn, and if he’s ready, he likely wins; #9 KEEP QUIET: Loves Saratoga and has run well in all four of his starts this season. This will be his first start for the Steve Asmussen barn, and he should be running well late; #2 FRONTIER MARKET: Won two in a row late last year before heading to the sidelines and merits respect for the Brown barn. If his stablemate isn’t 100%, he has a big shot.

More Mischief
Makin’ Out
Flashpackinbarbie

#9 MORE MISCHIEF: Was second in her return to the races back in May and flashed talent as a 2-year-old. Her recent local drills look strong, and she may be able to rate off of what figures to be a fast early pace; #1 MAKIN’ OUT: Romped here last year, but hasn’t been seen in the afternoon since September. She’s worked well of late and may be ready to run; #5 FLASHPACKINBARBIE: Waltzed home by more than eight lengths in her debut at Aqueduct and earned a strong 77 Beyer Speed Figure. She’s been freshened up since then and may be ready to take a step forward at second asking.

Economic Policy
Blanket of Roses
Are You Kitten Me

#5 ECONOMIC POLICY: Fetched $210,000 at auction in 2017 and is a half-brother to two winners. He’s bred to love two turns on turf and gets my nod in a tricky 2-year-old race; #2 BLANKET OF ROSES: Completes a strong 1-2 punch for Chad Brown and is another that should like this journey. His dam is a full sister to Grade 3 winner Derby Kitten, and the presence of Javier Castellano doesn’t hurt; #6 ARE YOU KITTEN ME: Isn’t necessarily bred to be precocious, but he’s been working well for a very capable outfit and attracts Jose Ortiz. He’s cross-entered in a race at Ellis Park, but if he runs here, I think he’s a contender.

Fortune’s Fool
Chateau
Overdeliver

#5 FORTUNE’S FOOL: Dueled through fast fractions last time out before being reeled in by a talented 3-year-old, and this seems like a weaker spot. Castellano rides back, and a repeat effort should be enough to get the job done; #4 CHATEAU: Reeled off three wins in a row not long ago and figures to be on or near the lead early on. He’d likely prefer a wet track, but his fast-track form is still fine; #9 OVERDELIVER: Has a record that looks far better if you toss the Grade 2 Wood Memorial. He cuts back in distance and draws favorably here, but this seems a hair shorter than he wants to go.

Mitole
Firenze Fire
Imperial Hint

#1 MITOLE: May be the best older male in training right now and looms large in the Grade 1 A.G. Vanderbilt. The rail draw isn’t ideal, and there’s other early speed signed on, but anything close to his best would make him a formidable foe; #4 FIRENZE FIRE: Was fifth behind Mitole in the Grade 1 Met Mile, but shortens up and may get plenty of pace to run at. That convergence of factors may make him a contender at a square price; #3 IMPERIAL HINT: Looks to defend his title in this race, but may have lost a step from his 2018 form. He makes his first start since a third-place finish in Dubai here, and he’ll need to have his running shoes on.

R10

Ya Primo
Channel Maker
Arklow

#3 YA PRIMO: Makes his American debut for Chad Brown after establishing himself as one of the top horses in his native Chile. This doesn’t seem like a strong race for the level, and foreign invaders getting Lasix for the first time often take big steps forward; #5 CHANNEL MAKER: Ran fourth behind Bricks and Mortar, America’s top older male on turf, in the Grade 1 Manhattan and returns to defend his title in the Bowling Green. He likes this turf course, and there may be enough pace signed on to set up for him; #1 ARKLOW: Is a consistent sort that generally runs the same race every time out. He was a neck behind Channel Maker in the Man o’ War and is another that would benefit from a fast pace.

R11

War of Will
Tacitus
Global Campaign

#6 WAR OF WILL: Ran like a tired horse in the Belmont, which was his sixth race in less than five months. He’s been freshened up for this event and could sit an ideal stalking trip, which would allow him to channel the form he showed winning the Preakness; #5 TACITUS: Was a good second in the Belmont and has won at this distance and two-turn route configuration before. He may want more early speed, and this isn’t the goal, but if he’s ready to run, he’ll be tough; #4 GLOBAL CAMPAIGN: Wired the field in the Grade 2 Peter Pan, which included eventual Belmont winner Sir Winston. He’s certainly got talent; the question is, does he want two turns?

R12

Surge Pricing
My Macho
Letterman

#5 SURGE PRICING: Won his debut and was fourth against winners last time out at Belmont. He adds blinkers and takes a big drop in class back to the claiming ranks, and he looms large in the Saturday finale; #4 MY MACHO: Raced wide last time out at Laurel and is another dropping in for a tag. This is his second start off the bench, and he’s won going two turns on turf before; #12 LETTERMAN: Faded to eighth in his first start against winners last time out, but won impressively two back at Aqueduct. That was a two-turn race, and he returns to that configuration here.