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No, Kentucky Derby 150 Doesn’t Need An Asterisk

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

This past weekend, Nysos won the Robert Lewis Stakes at Santa Anita, and he did so very impressively. In the process, he moved his career record to a perfect 3-for-3. That effort, combined with an underwhelming showing from Fierceness in the Holy Bull at Gulfstream Park, made many think he’s the top 3-year-old in the country.

Nysos, though, won’t run in the Kentucky Derby. He’s trained by Bob Baffert, who also conditions several other top-class 3-year-olds. Baffert’s Kentucky Derby ban has been extended through this year’s renewal, and unlike the past two seasons, owners connected with those horses decided to keep their runners in the same barn.

Outcry has, predictably, been pretty harsh, and not just from the usual suspects on horse racing Twitter. Several journalists I respect a great deal have chimed in, claiming that this year’s Kentucky Derby has a stain on it from the lack of Bob Baffert trainees (several of which would be considered logical contenders).

As you can probably guess from the headline, I don’t agree with that sentiment. However, my thoughts on this are similar to the ones I had about the Alix Earle situation at the Pegasus World Cup: Many people have this very, very wrong.

I’m going to throw my readers a curveball here with this next sentence (at least in the eyes of some who will see this article): I don’t love the way Baffert was suspended an additional year. The precedent of tacking on additional time after a verdict was handed down, and as a punishment is being served, isn’t a good one.

The long-running legal battle between Churchill Downs and the Baffert/Amr Zedan camp undoubtedly played a role in this. It was ugly, and I think most of the racing world breathed a sigh of relief when Baffert and Zedan stopped pursuing the case earlier this year. I understand CDI doing what it feels is best for business, but it’s also logical to think this stacks the deck against someone who may have a legitimate case of some sort down the line.

Acting as though one person or one entity is above the game is misleading, at best. On the other hand, though…acting as though one person or one entity is above the game is misleading, at best. Much like Churchill Downs, Bob Baffert and his owners aren’t more important than the rest of the industry.

Owners of horses like Nysos had a choice. They could’ve gone the routes made popular in 2022 and 2023 and sent their Derby prospects to the barns of Tim Yakteen, Sean McCarthy, Rodolphe Brisset, Brittany Russell, or other trainers in the game. More than one trainer can condition top-tier animals. Those owners chose to go another route, and that’s their right. I won’t criticize them for doing what they feel is correct. They pay the bills, not me.

What I also won’t do, though, is act as though those people are victims. Baffert was blackballed from the Run for the Roses, not the owners. Just because those connections aren’t pointing those horses to the Kentucky Derby doesn’t mean I’m going to devalue that race, and I don’t think anyone else should, either.

Barring a flip-flop by the owners of horses like Nysos, Muth, and others, those thoroughbreds won’t be in the starting gate. That’s not ideal, and neither is acting as though everything’s fine and the efforts of those horses don’t exist (as Churchill’s doing). However, it’s not the first time horses at or near the head of the class won’t go postward on the first Saturday in May.

Horses get knocked off the Derby trail every single season. Injuries derail the chances of major players frequently. Most notably, Forte, who would’ve been favored a year ago, scratched the morning of the race. Life Is Good and Shared Belief sure would’ve made the 2021 and 2014 Derbies more interesting, too. They didn’t run, either, and both years, fans and handicappers more than made due on the first Saturday in May.

The difference, of course, is that Nysos isn’t injured. As far as we can tell, he bounced out of the Lewis well. We’ll probably see him in either the San Felipe or the Santa Anita Derby, depending on what Baffert decides to do with his other 3-year-olds, and wherever he winds up, he’ll almost certainly be a very heavy favorite (and justifiably so).

Yes, the Kentucky Derby would be better with Nysos in it. Yes, the Preakness sure looks like the Bob Baffert Invitational, where that barn will undoubtedly be loaded and ready to feast upon horses being wheeled back in two weeks and other “new shooters” that almost certainly don’t stack up well in the form. Saying otherwise is naive and acts as though a major issue doesn’t exist (which, to be fair, is in line with horse racing’s approach on other topics that it’s kicked the can down the road on and can no longer just ignore).

However, there’s a lot of blame to go around for the way this wound up. Giving the race a physical or mental asterisk solves nothing. I’ll never agree with those acting as though the Derby is somehow just another 3-year-old race because one trainer, and owners who made conscious choices to stick with that trainer, can’t participate.

(As an aside, an acquaintance of mine has said they’re taking screenshots of folks insisting they don’t care, won’t bet on the race, and making other bold statements. I look forward to the “then and now” posts made when those people inevitably cave.)

It gets old saying “everyone’s wrong.” I genuinely believe most people mean well. I don’t think anyone’s happy horse racing is in the shape it’s in right now. These conflicts, though, solve absolutely nothing and make unifying for meaningful change beyond one big day much, much harder.

Here’s hoping that stops, and does so sooner rather than later.

Alix Earle Went To The Pegasus. Horse Racing Twitter Lost Its Mind.

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

I write today not to bury Gulfstream Park, nor to praise it. My latest entry in the “does anyone actually read these?” files instead strikes a familiar refrain that can be applied to a staggering number of situations.

Some background, for those unfamiliar with the situation: Influencer Alix Earle attended the Pegasus World Cup Saturday. Her social media content from the event reached a staggering 6.5 million people in 24 hours. This, of course, drove horse racing Twitter bananas, with fanatics grumbling about how Earle’s presence contributed nothing to the event.

Some further background, for those unfamiliar with me (and because, the last time I did this to establish myself as an “expert witness” of sorts, a few people missed the point and lost their minds over it): I have more than 13 years of experience in digital and social media marketing. Outside of horse racing, I’ve grown brands in the non-profit and college athletics sectors. Inside of this particular industry, I’ve shepherded online outlets for some of the most well-known news and entertainment operations in the game and, of course, had Lord Miles at 59-1 in the Wood Memorial (and the reaction that gets is why I still bring it up; I know my audience!).

All of this is to say I’m as well-qualified as anybody to discuss the layers of this, and that familiar refrain I mentioned earlier is a simple one: Almost everyone is wrong in some way, shape, or form.

The first thing you do, when you want to present your product as “cool,” is find people who others think are “cool” and use them to your benefit. Given the media landscape in 2024, the best way to do this is influencer marketing, and it’s a really simple concept provided you’ve got the money to do it.

As a sport, we talk about needing to try new things to get the sport in front of new fans. Given how many people saw Alix Earle’s content, that box was checked, multiple times over. Sorry to say it, folks, but industry channels and publications aren’t reaching 6.5 million people a day. We’re all statistically insignificant by comparison.

On that level, I have no problem with the presence of Alix Earle at the Pegasus. It seems like a mutually beneficial partnership. Gulfstream gets social media exposure, and Alix Earle gets eyeballs on her content, even if those eyeballs aren’t necessarily those of hardened handicappers (whose eyeballs instead rolled hard as this content got rolled out).

To use a marketing term, though, this got people into the funnel. The next step, now that they’re there, is to convert those people into customers. So what’s Gulfstream Park doing to give these people every reason to come back to the track?

There are ways this can be done. Hit the demographics Alix Earle’s trying to hit with social media ads that have her Pegasus photos or footage in them (assuming you have the rights to something). Use what you’ve got to drive Pegasus-goers back to the racetrack more than once, and when they get there, have resources that are there to introduce people to the betting side of the game. More informed fans are better fans. Better fans wager more and are more likely to introduce the sport to their friends. This isn’t complicated.

There’s a place for influencer marketing in horse racing, but like everything else, there has to be a follow-through. Gulfstream Park has five stakes races on Saturday’s card. The headliner, the Holy Bull, features Fierceness, who’d be the Kentucky Derby favorite if the race was run right now.

Do we think the people who saw Alix Earle’s videos know that? My money’s on “no,” and that’s where it falls apart.

Alix Earle being at the Pegasus World Cup isn’t the issue. The lack of a follow-through is, and that’s where horse racing’s in trouble. If the industry isn’t marketing correctly to new fans, or to the fans it has, what’s going on here?

The data doesn’t present a pretty picture. Handle is down pretty considerably, and only being kept afloat, at some venues, by CAW groups that have certain capabilities unavailable to the average player. The increased availability of legal sports betting can’t help matters. Why go against the sharks at the racetrack when you can spend your gambling dollars at sportsbooks that know their customers and give them what they want?

At its best, horse racing is the best gambling game on the planet, and there’s no close second. It’s what got me into the game as a kid, and it’s why the only times horse racing Twitter comes together with joy is when a player makes a big score. Marketing it as the premier betting opportunity in the country isn’t going to solve all of horse racing’s ills (we’re still breeding fewer horses that don’t run as much as their predecessors), but without that, handle’s going to keep circling the drain and put the sport in an even worse position moving forward.

In that regard, I share the frustrations of my horse racing Twitter brethren at the sport’s continued inability to effectively communicate with its fanbase. That’s my “why,” and it’s a big reason why I show up with content every year at Saratoga, Pleasanton, and a few other outlets. There’s a legitimate gripe that needs to be addressed by tracks across the country, in the form of effective marketing, fan education, and getting people hooked on the game the ways many of us were.

If your problem is with Alix Earle, though, the blame is misplaced.

(Oh, and if you’ve got an issue with well-known, younger women attending sporting events and being seen a lot, you probably shouldn’t watch the Super Bowl.)

Getting Back To Writing For Fun, And Writing What I Know

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

Somewhere between Newark, New Jersey, and San Francisco, California, as an Alaska Airlines flight attendant repeatedly barreled into my right shoulder with a lower body reminiscent of Earl Campbell, I realized I hadn’t written anything consistently solely for my own pleasure in quite a while.

I’ve written for work, I’ve written because I’ve felt a need to write something, and I’ve written calls to action of sorts. However, for a bunch of reasons, the urge to write things because I enjoy writing was gone for a while.

It’s back now, thank goodness, and my early New Year’s Resolution of sorts is simple: Write more. I figure I’m good for a column a week most weeks, with the exception of when Saratoga Race Course is open for business (more news is coming on my plans for this summer in the next few months). Want more than that, or want me to focus on something in particular? Tell me. The “contact” feature on my site works, and I see everything that comes in.

People smarter than me say to write what you know, so let’s give it a whirl. Most of my experience is in the gambling space, so there’ll be a healthy dose of that in a lot of what I put together. However, there’ll be some other stuff in there, too (stuff I hope someone out there either enjoys reading or needs to hear).

With that in mind, here’s a list of the things I’ve come to know that, hopefully, proves helpful to someone out there.

I know that more educated, informed fans become better, more devoted fans that will spend more time, energy, and money on a given product.

I know that, to be a better horse racing fan, you’d be well served to spend time reading stuff written by folks named Clancy, Nevills, Voss, Scheinman, Grening, Wincze-Hughes, Beyer, and Crist, rather than stuff put together by people who can barely put out a somewhat-coherent, 280-character post on the platform formerly known as Twitter.

I know that renaming the previously-mentioned platform X was a cataclysmically-stupid move, so I’ll reference it as such as little as possible.

I know that the previously-mentioned flight attendant must have seen what I wrote in the first paragraph, because she damn near elbowed me in the temple just now. Sorry, ma’am.

I know that, from the perspective of horse racing’s establishment, the problem is never the problem, but people TALKING about the problem. I know this because of what some in the media are experiencing now, and from first-hand experience nearly 10 years ago.

I know that, at some point, I’ll tell that story publicly. Not yet, though.

I know that, if horse racing continues this harmful and borderline-shameful practice, the chances of there ever being any sort of productive change within an industry that sorely needs it get lower and lower.

I know that, if you give attention whores attention, they win.

I know that because you’re still hearing about Lord Miles in the Wood Memorial eight months later. If it didn’t get the reaction of “drive some people crazy and get under the skin of people whose buttons I enjoy pushing,” do you really think I’d still be doing it?

By extension, I know that not nearly enough people have ever learned that lesson.

I know the biggest winner in most legal cases is “billable hours.”

I know that Saratoga hosting the Belmont for a few years is a polarizing topic.

I know that Saratoga can throw a horse racing-themed festival like few other places on the planet.

I know that there are very real, very logical objections some have involving the race’s distance and plans for after the mid-2020’s.

I know horses haven’t been bred to go 12 furlongs for decades now, and that dismissing that fact seems dangerous (especially when a career turf sprinter somehow saw 293 mares this breeding season).

I know that I’m going to miss Golden Gate Fields when it closes in June, and I hope that closure doesn’t impact the Northern California fair circuit that’s near and dear to my heart.

I know that, heaven help me, I’m going to miss Aqueduct, too.

I know Mike Repole’s heart is in the right place, and that I have a significant amount of respect for his acumen as a businessman, a horse owner, and an ambassador of horse racing.

I know nobody has ever won anything of substance based on a Twitter poll.

I know that anyone with a net worth north of $100 million should be paying new college graduates living wages to snatch their phones from their hands when the urge to let fly with a platform-formerly-known-as-Twitter rampage comes bubbling to the surface.

I know we’ve got one life to live and that there’s no excuse spending any of it being miserable on social media, to people you’ll never meet, for reasons most logical people will never understand.

I know that public and semi-public figures put themselves out there and sign up for backlash.

I know that family members are off-limits.

I know that everyone needs a support system to go to when things get rough.

I know that I appreciate everyone that constituted mine when I went through some rough stuff earlier this year. I’m on the other side of most of it, and I’m in the debt of anyone reading this who took the time to check in, send a message, make a phone call, or otherwise reach out.

I know time is the most valuable resource we have.

I know there’s no substitute for time spent with family, friends, and loved ones. I love you all, and you know who you are.

INTERLUDE: A Disappointing, Tragic 2023 Saratoga Meet

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

When things get weird, writers write, and I can think of no weirder time during my career than this summer.

I’m writing the bulk of this column Saturday night, hours after Travers Day. It should’ve been a celebration of the best Saratoga has to offer. Arcangelo stamped himself as the best 3-year-old in the country with a win in the Midsummer Derby, and stalwarts Echo Zulu and Gunite both won major stakes races.

Of course, all of that pales in comparison to what happened on the rest of the card. Two more horses passed away due to catastrophic injuries. One of them, New York Thunder, seemed on his way to victory in the Allen Jerkens when he went down in midstretch, to the horror of the Saratoga crowd and those watching around the country on FOX. It’s the second time in a month a major breakdown has happened in a race broadcast on that network (Maple Leaf Mel, of course, suffered a fatal injury in the Test).

Now, everyone involved is looking for a path forward. Many on horse racing Twitter, a highly-opinionated space even in the best of times, called for the rest of the meet to be cancelled. Whether or not that’s deemed the most sound decision is anyone’s guess, but the constant barrage of rain this summer at Saratoga sure seems to have changed the track, not unlike what happened at Santa Anita a few years ago. Rain in upstate New York is nothing new, but we haven’t seen a summer like this in a very, very long time.

An emergency meeting was called Saturday night. I imagine we’ll know more in the coming days. For now, though, all I can say is that I’m sick to my stomach. I was excited for the start of this season, as I have been most summers during my life.

Then it started.

There’s no aspect of this meet that hasn’t been disappointing in some form or fashion. The weather has wreaked havoc on programs, turning competitive turf races into five or six-horse affairs out of the Wilson chute (which has gotten WAY too much use). Inquiries and objections have been handled, to be kind, in a very inconsistent manner by stewards, and a few decisions have rendered members of the New York Racing Association’s own TV crew speechless. Breakdowns haven’t just happened. They’ve happened too frequently, on big stages, in full view of not just hardened horseplayers, but families crammed into spots on the track aprons that are usually empty at other NYRA locales.

There have also been plenty of headaches induced on the wagering end. Computer groups, while shut out of NYRA’s win pools, have started hammering exacta payoffs down to where those combinations routinely pay significantly less than they should. The biggest races on the calendar have struggled to draw full fields. In addition, of course, there was the fiasco where surfaces were changed with one minute to post before the first leg of a Pick Five.

(Quick note: I got some heat for my response to that last chain of events, which probably wasn’t worded the best in the heat of the moment but did say that I needed to know more about communication behind the scenes before crushing NYRA. As it turned out, the organization lobbied for a delay that would’ve given players a chance to change tickets, and those efforts were rebuffed. It was a bad situation all around, communication from NYRA to horseplayers was far from ideal, and that shouldn’t ever repeat itself, but it turns out I may have been…at least partially right?)

The simple thing to do is blame one organization or group of people. It’s easy to blame NYRA, or horsepeople who are perceived to operate in certain ways. Unfortunately, while a few individual arguments aren’t without decent points, the bigger answer is almost certainly far more complex and doesn’t lend itself to the lazy ways we tend to communicate with one another.

We don’t breed as many horses as we used to. The ones we produce don’t run as much, or for as long a time period. Some are bred with 2-year-old sales in mind, not 4-year-old races, which leads to longterm soundness issues and, in my opinion, a weaker breed in general. Owners consolidate their stock with fewer trainers, leading to field size headaches, and some of those trainers have rap sheets longer than Jack Kerouac’s scroll of “On the Road.” Computer-assisted groups are problematic to the average bettor, and horse racing as a whole has no idea what to do with them, or how to effectively answer the question, “what is a foul that merits disqualification?” Finally, of course, Mother Nature has been Saratoga’s worst enemy, and there have been times NYRA has been caught flat-footed in its response to the elements. Mix all of that together, and you get…this.

There aren’t many people in horse racing’s community who are more connected with one track than I am with Saratoga. It’s where I grew up, where I made my bones as a writer and handicapper, and where I’m happy to help as many people as I can in whatever way(s) I can. Even folks who think I’m a moron and who enjoy bashing me for existing are welcome to come find me and break bread at a racetrack whenever I’m at one (it’s not like I’m a hard guy to find).

I’ve had people tell me I’m being too hard on horse racing. I’ve also seen people say I’m lobbying for a job with NYRA. Neither of those viewpoints are true, and to be honest, if people are saying both things, I’m probably being pretty fair.

My experience and perspective means that I see these 40 days in upstate New York as a representation of the best horse racing has to offer, in front of the best fans in the sport. Instead (and please excuse the too-easy cliche coming up), a perfect storm of horrible things have converged on the small city in upstate New York. Instead of being reminded how great this game can be at its best, this meet has shown us how hard it can be at its worst, and it’s done so with staggering, torturous regularity.

In short, what I want is both simple and grand: I want Saratoga to feel like Saratoga again.

I don’t know if that can be done this coming week. To be honest, after the meet that’s taken place this summer, I’m not entirely sure it can happen when Saratoga opens its doors in 2024. I love this place very, very much, but there are no two ways about it: If Saratoga continues feeling less like the Saratoga we know and love and more like the setting of a different “Black Mirror” episode every day, a lot of things are in big, big trouble.

2023 Kentucky Derby Recap: From Chaos Comes Clarity

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

Want to read a Kentucky Derby recap that has very little to do with the race? If so, I’ve got just the ticket.

(Editor’s note: Uh oh.)

(Writer’s retort: Come on. It’s me. You knew this was going to be weird.)

I did a ton of Kentucky Derby content leading up to Saturday. Catena Media allowed me to get my hands dirty on a bunch of sites within the company’s portfolio, and I’m grateful to them for that. I love my job, and I very much enjoy collaborating with some of the best co-workers (and friends) one can ask for.

I did a ton outside of my day job, too. You may have heard me on a few podcasts, and if you were in Ithaca or Albany (two of my former places of residence), you may have heard me on local sports radio affiliates, too. I woke up on Saturday morning bright and early, fully prepared to compile everything into one nice, neat package.

And then Forte scratched, and everything came crashing down.

Not literally, of course. Life goes on. However, with that scratch, almost every piece of content I conceived, produced, edited, and/or published the prior four or five days became irrelevant.

You may have seen a few social media posts from me in that vein that hinted I wasn’t in a great mood. As I told a few family members and close friends, I was absolutely devastated, and not because Forte wasn’t running.

There’s no worse feeling than seeing a lot of hard work fueled by passion go down the drain. I spent the entire week touting Forte enthusiastically, so everything that enthusiasm touched was instantly rendered obsolete.

(Quick note: If the vets determined Forte shouldn’t have run, then he shouldn’t have run. It’s truly as simple as that, so please don’t put words in my mouth.)

I audibled reasonably well the morning of the race. I put out a revised betting strategy, and if you acted on it, you came out ahead. Mage was my third choice, but a win bet at overlaid odds proved profitable. My exactas were toast, so I didn’t get rich, but I’ve had far, far worse Derbies.

After the race, a tweet of mine went around pretty quickly. I said Forte would have stomped that group, and I sincerely believe that. He’s beaten Mage twice already, and I don’t see a reason a healthy version of him couldn’t have done so again this weekend. I hope we’ll get a chance to see him sooner rather than later, ideally at an overlaid price.

The interactions that followed, though, gave me a lot of insight into my feelings and motivations. For as much bluster, pompousness, and ego my detractors (and there are many, for reasons passing understanding…) will claim I have, I genuinely enjoy going back and forth with about 90 to 95 percent of horse racing Twitter. I’ll talk shop in any setting anyone wants, and more often than not, I’ll genuinely enjoy it.

I was miserable most of Derby Day, and not because a horse I was excited to bet wasn’t going to run. It was because I put a lot of my spare energy into creating content for horseplayers to digest and enjoy, and I do it because there’s no better feeling than using my knowledge and insight to help someone else make money.

It’s why I keep doing all of this stuff on top of a day job I very much enjoy. I’m not getting rich off of these passion projects, and that’s not the point. The things I do in horse racing are because I want to do them, and because, over the years, there’s enough evidence to support the idea that I know what I’m talking about (you might have heard about Lord Miles…).

Saratoga’s in two months. I’ll be back in the pages of The Pink Sheet and online on this very site with full-card analysis, selections, and bankroll plays. Before that is the Alameda County Fair in Pleasanton. I’ll be in Europe for the first week of that meet, but most weekends, I’ll be co-hosting handicapping seminars just outside the grandstand that preview each day of racing action at the Northern California fair track.

In the meantime, you can keep checking this site and my social media platforms. I’m an easy guy to find. If you’ve got any ideas for content, or just something you’d like to see, use the “contact” function. I see everything that comes through.

To those that enjoy what I do, thank you. You’re a large part of why I’m still able to do it.