Author: Andrew Champagne

The First Ever Fantasy Horse Racing Simulcast Team Draft

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

A short brainstorm between myself and DRF compadre Joe Nevills resulted in what we felt was a genius idea: Take four degenerates working in horse racing, put them together, and have them draft their dream simulcast TV crew. Yes, we’re weird.

Having said that, we got two of our friends in on the game: Gulfstream Park track announcer Pete Aiello and TwinSpires/Brisnet grid connoisseur Ed DeRosa. Our basic ground rules were pretty simple. This would be contested in a “snake draft” format, where whoever picks first in odd-numbered rounds picks last in even-numbered rounds, and vice versa. Each roster consists of the following positions: Announcer, host, analyst, handicapper, field/paddock reporter, flex, and one bench spot. Finally, those drafting could not draft themselves, and were limited to drafting one current co-worker.

With that in mind, let’s get to the draft!

ROUND 1, PICK 1: JOE NEVILLS
PETE AIELLO, ANNOUNCER

Yeah, I picked someone else in the league. Maybe I’ll put him in a costume, hand him some flyers, and make him the highest-drafted mascot in league history. Do something about it.

Beyond those simple trolling pleasures, Pete is the kind of personality and multi-tool player you can build a program around. No announcer’s star has risen faster over the past half-decade, and he’s proven to be a versatile on-air talent, both in announcing and pre/between-race talking head segments. Plus, he has experience running myriad behind-the-scenes positions at the racetrack away from the camera, so his value only increases.

A relentless handicapper, Pete knows what he’s talking about when it comes to identifying horses to watch, and he more than has the ability to keep viewers hooked whether he’s picking a horse to win or calling it down the stretch. Plus, his sense of humor and quick thinking will ensure he gets a race call to go viral every so often, which raises the profile of my fictional racetrack, Son of Mount Pleasant Meadows. I want my track to be fun, and he’ll make sure of it.

Perhaps the biggest draw for drafting Pete in the #1 slot is that he’s still a high-upside prospect. He’s among the younger announcers calling at a major track, meaning you’re going to have him for a long time compared to some of the more experienced names out there, and he’s only going to keep improving with time. He’s a long-term pick that’s already perfectly suited for a “win-now” franchise, and I’m happy to have him on-board. Now, get in the damn bear suit and pass out those Lyft vouchers!!!

PA: I have to write ALL THAT?!

AC: “…and there we go with the antics.”

I’m not at all surprised with that pick. I figured Pete would go fairly early, and in fact he was one of the top guys on my Big Board That Totally Reeks of Awesomeness (BBTTROA for short). However, I’ve got a different strategy in mind, one that involves a big name, an even better guy…and, for my money, the best hair in the game.

ROUND 1, PICK 2: ANDREW CHAMPAGNE
LAFFIT PINCAY III, HOST

My background isn’t just in social media. I’ve been on both sides of the camera and behind a microphone, and I know that the toughest on-air job there is falls on the shoulders of the host. Hosts are traffic cops, weaving instructions from producers and directors (that are sometimes yelled quickly and filled with four-letter words) seamlessly with external obligations and the other pitfalls of live television. It takes someone with a ton of talent to do this in such a way that the show stays afloat.

Laffit’s one of the best in the world of horse racing at doing this. He’s composed, he knows both the subject matter and the world of television, and he’ll ensure that the long-suffering wives of those watching my simulcast feed don’t force their husbands to change the channel (thus ensuring we meet our handle goals). As long as we can afford the elixir that ensures Laffit’s hair stays perfect at all times, I think things will work swimmingly.

PA: What’s the metric here? “Getting over” with the racing public? Creating “must see TV?”

AC: It’s whatever you want it to be. Now get back in Joe’s bear suit that he may or may not have washed.

ROUND 1, PICK 3: ED DEROSA
SCOTT HAZELTON, HOST

AC: Most important question: Bow tie on or off?

ED: Bow tie off. He’s more than just a pretty face. He also asks Perry Martin the tough questions.

ROUND 1, PICK 4/ROUND 2, PICK 1: PETE AIELLO
MATT CAROTHERS, ANALYST
TRAVIS STONE, ANNOUNCER

Matt is a speed handicapper and a company line handicapper like me. He’s young enough to get some good longevity out of and is well known by the audience. He’s also a polarizing figure like myself, so I gravitate to that.

Travis is a pure value play. He can run any department at the track, do it well and could be selected in various capacities in this exercise. Age is an added bonus, and there’s zero downside here.

ROUND 2, PICK 2: ED DEROSA
NICK LUCK, ANALYST

There’s a heavy international emphasis on Team DeRosa so far, and why not given we’re in this thing to make money? US fans have showed a willingness to bet more on international racing at all hours.

AC: I am beyond ecstatic that my next pick is still available.

ROUND 2, PICK 3: ANDREW CHAMPAGNE
CATON BREDAR, FIELD/PADDOCK REPORTER

Nobody is better than Caton at eying horses in the paddock and figuring out when certain horses will outrun their odds. She’s also tremendous at interviewing trainers, especially those who don’t usually open up to the general public. If you’ve never seen Caton interview Mike Maker, you’ve never seen art. Some may think it’s a bit early in the draft to address this position, but I wanted to make sure I got the best in the business.

JN: First off, solid pick by Ed with Nick Luck. He’s a dynamite addition to any team in this group, and his stock is through the roof on both sides of the pond after the excellent Royal Ascot coverage.

ROUND 2, PICK 4/ROUND 3, PICK 1: JOE NEVILLS
CHRISTINA BLACKER, HOST
GARY WEST, FIELD/PADDOCK REPORTER

If this were strictly a draft of TVG talent, Christina would be my first one off the board without a second thought. She’s got background in both the equine and handicapping sides of the business, and does a great job delivering useful information to the audience while playing air traffic control with the rest of her crew. My team needs to be smart, loose, and conversational with a good sense of humor – more NFL on FOX than CNN – and Christina has shown over the years that she can hang with any variety of co-anchors. I need a talented jack of all trades in this spot, and Christina brings high stats into just about every area.

Also, she’s another pick on the younger end of the spectrum. This not only makes her one I’d hope to have on my team for a long time, but a team of younger people should help convince folks in their age bracket that the track’s not full of just middle-aged and old white guys.

Gary West is probably a reach in this spot, but ever since I first heard Gary during my first visit to Kentucky Downs, I’ve never been able to imagine a dream simulcast team without him on it. He just seems to look at the horses with a different skew from the typical paddock analyst, and is able to process that into something especially palatable and useful for handicappers. The guy not only knows what he’s talking about, but presents it in a way that you’re doing yourself a disservice not to listen to it.

Part of Gary’s appeal at Kentucky Downs is his back and forth with announcer John Lies, but I think Pete and Christina are more than capable replacements to get the best out of each other. I like my team with these three as key cogs.

AC: It’s time to fill the chair(s) next to Laffit, and my next pick is racing’s hottest free agent right now.

ROUND 3, PICK 2: ANDREW CHAMPAGNE
RICHARD MIGLIORE, ANALYST

Richard Migliore is a flat-out steal in the third round. He was a very good rider who fit in instantly on whatever TV broadcast he worked, and any list of racing’s greatest ambassadors has him on it. He provides audiences with handicapping acumen and a unique perspective that not many people have, and I desperately need him on my team.

ROUND 3, PICK 3: ED DEROSA
RACHEL MCLAUGHLIN, FLEX

Horse racing is meant to be fun, and Rachel brings minor league baseball fun to the Indiana Grand signal with promos for the live audience while also being able to discuss handicapping with the rest of the team for those watching in Simo-land. She can help promote all parts of the racing game.

ROUND 3, PICK 4/ROUND 4, PICK 1: PETE AIELLO
DAVE RODMAN, FLEX
GABBY GAUDET, HOST

In a surprise move, I’ll take another announcer, a veteran, a great guy, one of the best in the business, a guy with a great sense of humor, and a good friend. I’ll also take Gabby Gaudet, who takes her job very seriously. I need someone who does that.

ROUND 4, PICK 2: ED DEROSA
DOUG SALVATORE, HANDICAPPER

This is the type of guy that, when he makes a pick, people pay attention. He’s also a great writer both about the game and life in general. We share a lack of filter. He once wrote about his soapy sock. He’ll stir the pot, he’ll stew in it. He’ll do what it takes to make a buck.

AC: As I try to recover from the image caused by Ed’s comments about a soapy sock, one name sticks out, and it’s one I need to draft.

ROUND 4, PICK 3: ANDREW CHAMPAGNE
MILLIE BALL, FLEX

Much of this is about business. Millie is smart, experienced, talented, and fills many roles with her versatility (even if we need someone out there on horseback). However, I’ll always hold Millie in an even higher regard as a person for something I saw first-hand. I was at Santa Anita in one of my first weeks at HRTV when Points Offthebench, who was trained by Millie’s husband (Tim Yakteen), broke down during a routine workout ahead of the Breeders’ Cup Sprint. The horse was euthanized, and it would’ve been understandable if Millie had taken the morning off. However, she stayed at the track and did her shift, even though people watching could tell it had been a terrible morning. That takes a LOT of toughness, which is a quality I want on my staff.

PA: We’ve got an HRTV mark here!

ROUND 4, PICK 4/ROUND 5, PICK 1: JOE NEVILLS
DONNA BARTON-BROTHERS, FLEX
CHRIS MCCARRON, ANALYST

You can put Donna anywhere on the track, from the desk, to the paddock, to the back of a horse, to the top of the danged Churchill Downs big board and she’ll be an asset. She literally wrote the book on teaching new fans about the sport, but she has enough cred with the racing lifers that she can speak to them in their language and offer an experienced voice regarding the on-track product as a former jockey. A Swiss Army talent with a broad audience appeal? You’ve got a spot on my team any day.

I was thinking about making Donna my straight-up analyst until Andrew brought up the horseback element, and I realized she was capable of so much more.

I really struggled with finding the right person for the analyst spot. I wanted my analyst to fill a color commentator position on the desk, and I wanted someone who has been in the trenches. Someone who could comment on what goes on during a race with the experience of having a hand in the race, while also being a charismatic, likable figure. I wanted a Terry Bradshaw, or at least a Troy Aikman. In retrospect, I wish I would have picked Migliore when he was on the board and assumed my fandom for Gary West would have kept quiet until I could come back and grab him here. Mig is kind of the ideal guy for that spot in my eyes, and I’ve been told I can’t take Gary Stevens because he’s still an active rider. Drat.

AC: Sorry.

JN: Anyway, who better to be the voice of experience than the guy who founded an entire school to teach people about horse racing? McCarron has on-camera experience with ESPN and TVG, and anyone that’s had the pleasure of sitting down for a chat with him knows he’s a character who is never lacking for words. He’s ridden, and won, at the highest levels, has a personality and presence that demands your attention, has experience instructing others (which an analyst should always be doing to some degree even if it’s not talking to beginners), and has worked with the technical aspects of both film and television. Put him in a spot where he’s just talking to you and the hosts about the game, and he’s my sleeper pick of this whole thing. He’s probably not the most polished guy I could have picked in this spot, but I don’t necessarily want polished. I want people who are intelligent, engaging, and entertaining. Chris has that in spades.

AC: My team is polished, but it needs a jolt of youth and enthusiasm.

ROUND 5, PICK 2: ANDREW CHAMPAGNE
GINO BUCCOLA, HANDICAPPER

Gino’s got the work ethic and knowledge I want in my handicapper’s chair, along with the added benefit of having tons of passion for aspects of the game that go beyond what you see in the program. He’s not a “hot take” machine, but he’s never afraid to passionately defend a controversial point, and having someone who can go back and forth with the Mig from time to time is a major plus. Between his insight and the fit he figures to be alongside the rest of my crew, Gino’s a guy I need to have at this point in the draft.

ROUND 5, PICK 3: ED DEROSA
JASON BEEM, ANNOUNCER

My first three picks bring professionalism and gravitas. Salvatore and now Beem bring irreverence to take down ivory towers. Jason calls a clean race, has fun doing it, and interacts with the racing community.

ROUND 5, PICK 4/ROUND 6, PICK 1: PETE AIELLO
BRITNEY EURTON, FIELD/PADDOCK REPORTER
MARK PATTERSON, HANDICAPPER

With delight in my voice and lead in my pencil, I proudly select Britney Eurton as whatever you want to put her as.

AC: You need a field/paddock reporter, so I’m putting her there.

PA: You boys have allowed me to draft a dream team. Hopefully the league doesn’t institute salary caps though.

With that in mind, I will take Mark Patterson as my handicapper. He will likely work cheaper than many others, is goofier than a cat on helium, can work with anyone, and knows his stuff.

ROUND 6, PICK 2: ED DEROSA
MAGGIE WOLFENDALE, FIELD/PADDOCK REPORTER

When it comes to getting people to make action plays, nothing is more actionable than what’s seen in the paddock, and it’s really the last frontier of prices.

With an international flavor to my team, there’s also value to someone who can evaluate horseflesh on the fly. Yeah, NYRA is her strength, but what she does can be done in other paddocks as well.

AC: Maggie’s a good pick, and if I didn’t already have Caton, she’d have been high on my list. However, also high on my list is the most visible announcer in horse racing, one I’m surprised is still available.

ROUND 6, PICK 3: ANDREW CHAMPAGNE
LARRY COLLMUS, ANNOUNCER

With the retirement of Tom Durkin and the semi-retirement of Trevor Denman, racing needs a voice to carry it forward, and of the announcers left on the board, Collmus is the most logical candidate. He’s the Triple Crown and Breeders’ Cup voice, and he figures to be in that position for a long time.

JN: Curses, I was hoping Maggie might fall to me for one of my last picks. I’m floored she made it this far down the board.

Okay, time to round out my team. I’ve still got a handicapper and a bench player to draft. Here we go…

ROUND 6, PICK 4/ROUND 7, PICK 1: JOE NEVILLS
JOE KRISTUFEK, HANDICAPPER
JONATHAN HOROWITZ, BENCH

I honestly thought about taking Mike Battaglia here. His announcing style is an easy target, but I’ve got a lot of respect for his ability to handicap a race, and he’s another name that brings instant gravitas to a crew and is comfortable in front of a camera. That said, he looks to be easing his way out of the spotlight, so I might find myself seeking a replacement before long.

Joe Kristufek is the kind of person you’d want to hang out with and break down a card, and that’s what I want in my on-air team. He’s been the handicapping face of racetracks big and small, so he’s got a broad range of experience. He skews younger, but he’s been around and done enough that the simulblast lifers shouldn’t scoff too heavily at the kid on the screen who thinks he’s something making all these picks like it’s his job or something. On-air handicapper is a spot where mouth-breathers are going to open fire no matter what you do, but I think Joe’s strong enough to handle the assault, and does plenty to ensure the haters don’t have a leg to stand on. Plus, he’s another one that’s just a walking “Good PR Machine” for your track. Put him on the desk with Christina Blacker and Chris McCarron and you’ve got a dynamic and diverse booth heading up your broadcast.

Meanwhile, I have no idea how I’d fit Horowitz into the overall team. All I know is he gives a significant damn about what he does, and he’s a one-man wrecking crew when it comes to broadcasting, reporting, and generally doing anything within his abilities to make you care about Arapahoe Park. Oh, and he also calls the races. I need that guy on my roster. We’ll figure out the details later.

AC: I’ve got a bench spot available, and for me, versatility is extremely important. I ping-ponged between three people for this spot, but ultimately went with…

ROUND 7, PICK 2: ANDREW CHAMPAGNE
DON STEVENS, BENCH

He works at a smaller track (Delta Downs), but this is a guy who can literally do ANYTHING I’d need him to do. He’s a strong announcer, of course, but he also serves as Delta Downs’s one-man simulcast show AND does all of their media relations work. I can plug Don Stevens in anywhere on this team, and he’d not only do the job, he’d do it exceptionally well. I couldn’t ask for a better “utility player.”

Honorable mentions for my last spot go to both Darin Zoccali and Dave Weaver, who both bring similar versatility to the table. Ultimately, I figured Larry Collmus would be on call for major events every now and then, and I wanted someone with more of an announcing background. That said, it was a very tough call.

ROUND 7, PICK 3: ED DEROSA
CANDICE HARE, BENCH

She keeps with the international theme, and I like the degenerate vibe. Now that she has a TVG gig, the hours don’t seem as odd, but back in the day, she was picking races 20 hours a day and using the other four to complain about how bad the Tigers are.

JN: Alright, all we need now is the Mr./Ms./Mrs. Irrelevant. Pete, it’s your time to shine!

ROUND 7, PICK 4: PETE AIELLO
PASSIONATE ROOKIE FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF ARIZONA’S RACE TRACK INDUSTRY PROGRAM: BENCH

They helped give me so many opportunities in the business and it would be pleasure to give some of those same opportunities to someone else. Along those lines, by using the person as the resident “utility player”, they will broaden their skill set…a vital component to success in this industry in my view.

AC: I KNEW you were a softie at heart, Pete!

FULL TEAMS

JOE NEVILLS

Announcer: Pete Aiello
Host: Christina Blacker
Analyst: Chris McCarron
Handicapper: Joe Kristufek
Field/Paddock Reporter: Gary West
Flex: Donna Barton-Brothers
Bench: Jonathan Horowitz

ANDREW CHAMPAGNE

Announcer: Larry Collmus
Host: Laffit Pincay III
Analyst: Richard Migliore
Handicapper: Gino Buccola
Field/Paddock Reporter: Caton Bredar
Flex: Millie Ball
Bench: Don Stevens

ED DEROSA

Announcer: Jason Beem
Host: Scott Hazelton
Analyst: Nick Luck
Handicapper: Doug Salvatore
Field/Paddock Reporter: Maggie Wolfendale
Flex: Rachel McLaughlin
Bench: Candice Hare

PETE AIELLO

Announcer: Travis Stone
Host: Gabby Gaudet
Analyst: Matt Carothers
Handicapper: Mark Patterson
Field/Paddock Reporter: Britney Eurton
Flex: Dave Rodman
Bench: Passionate rookie from Arizona RTIP

Saratoga’s Coming, And So’s Lots of Content!

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

We’re a week away from the start of the summer meet at Saratoga Race Course. There’s a lot to be excited about, especially from my standpoint (since I was born and raised in upstate New York).

I’ve been lucky enough to continue working for The Saratogian in a freelance capacity since moving to California in late-2013, and I’m proud to announce that I’ll be back in The Pink Sheet once again this year. I’ll be part of the pick box on the front page, where I was the leading handicapper in 2015 and second-leading handicapper a year ago (Liam Durbin, I’m coming for you!).

Additionally, I’ll provide more extensive race-by-race analysis centering around my top three selections, as well as a running bankroll section, where I’ll start the meet with $1,000 and look to grow it over 40 days (or at least not lose my shirt before the meet ends!). My bankroll section also features space for short blurbs of writing, and we had some gems last year. Those get more fun, though, when I’m using that space to address questions and comments from readers. Tweet me (Twitter.com/AndrewChampagne, if you’re not already following), and if your question or comment is good, you may see a response in print!

There’s even more excitement on my end, though, and that’s because of what I’m about to tell you. In addition to being available in The Pink Sheet, all of my content will also be available right here on AndrewChampagne.com prior to each and every racing day. I work a day in advance so as to mitigate the three-hour time difference, so my analysis will usually be online 24-48 hours before a card’s first post time. There’s going to be a lot of content to digest, and I really hope you enjoy reading it.

As always, I extend my warmest regards to those at The Saratogian, namely managing editor Charlie Kraebel, sports editor David Johnson, and the entire sports staff, which works tirelessly to create two different publications during a very busy time of the year. It’s not easy to do what they do, especially in trying times for newspapers, but the staff does a tremendous job, and I’m proud to continue my work for them.

Let’s make some money this summer, everyone!

Belmont Park Analysis, Selections, and Tickets: Stars and Stripes Day (7/8/17)

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

Saturday is Stars and Stripes Day at Belmont Park, and it’s produced a stellar card with top-quality racing and ample wagering opportunities. I’ll profile the Pick Five and late Pick Four, and hopefully we can build on Tuesday’s success, which included a Pick Five score at Santa Anita. One note: This analysis assumes races scheduled for the turf stay there.

Here’s how I’ll play the card!

$0.50 Pick Five: Race #1

R1: 4
R2: 1,7
R3: 2,8
R4: 1,8,9,10
R5: 1,5,7,11

64 Bets, $32

Don’t get too excited thinking we’ll get a price on my single, because I have a VERY difficult time believing we’ll get 6-1 on Le Pin. This colt hasn’t been seen since a solid December debut, where he faded to third in a race won by eventual stakes winner Classic Rock. He’s bred up and down for the turf and should improve in his second start for trainer Todd Pletcher; if we get the listed odds, I’ll be very happy to bet him.

I think the second and third races each come down to two betting interests. I actually preferred 3-1 second choice Bareeqa to 2-1 favorite Selenite before the latter scratched. I’ll substitute a two-horse entry that could be well-meant. Moving to the middle leg, Base Command and National Flag are entered in the third and look like promising 2-year-olds.

I’ll spread in the last two legs, and in doing so, I’ll be alive to a few big prices. 20-1 bomb Kitty Maddnes steps up in class in the fourth, but does so off of an impressive win in her second start of the year. Another step forward would make her a contender at a big price. Additionally, Arghad has never run a truly bad race in six career starts. The cutback he’ll get in Saturday’s fifth should help this 15-1 shot, and I think he’ll be live at a nice number.

$0.50 Pick Four: Race #7

R7: 2
R8: 7,8,12
R9: 2,6
R10: ALL

66 Bets, $33

This is an all-stakes Pick Four that includes both Grade 1 races on the Saturday program, as well as a pair of Grade 2 affairs that feature some of the best older horses in the country. I’ll start off with a single, as Mind Your Biscuits seems to have a picture-perfect setup in the Belmont Sprint Championship. Green Gratto and Unified will both be gunning for the lead, which should play into the hands of the returning Dubai Golden Shaheen winner. He loves this seven-furlong distance, and I think he’ll be extremely tough to beat.

The eighth is the Belmont Oaks, and I’m using all three of Chad Brown’s entrants (he had four, but Fifty Five scratched). Sistercharlie ran a tremendous race against much better horses overseas last out, while New Money Honey showed a new dimension when racing on the lead in her Wonder Again win and Uni has been training very well. Meanwhile, I was tempted to single Shaman Ghost in the Suburban, as he does figure to be the best horse in the race. However, I can’t shake the possibility of Matt King Coal getting loose on the front end and wiring the field. As such, I had to use him (thankfully, the ticket isn’t too expensive!).

This leads us to the Belmont Derby. It’s the main event of Stars and Stripes Day, $1.2 million is on the line…and I’m waving the white flag. For my money, this is the most wide-open race on the card. I can make a valid case for as many as seven or eight of these runners, and given that I have plenty of room in my budget, I’m going to hit the “ALL” button to buy myself some security. Even if the first few legs are chalky, this Pick Four has solid potential, as the Belmont Derby favorite may not go off much higher than 3-1 or 7/2.

Santa Anita Closing Day Analysis, Selections, and Tickets: 7/4/17

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

Tuesday is closing day at Santa Anita, marking the conclusion of a meet that started way back in late-December. The folks in the racing office have put together an interesting card headlined by the Grade 3 American. I’ll be offering multi-race exotic tickets at the end of the article, including a Pick Six since that sequence has a carryover that must be paid out. Do note, though, that this ticket is very budget-conscious. I usually don’t play $2 Pick Sixes, as I simply don’t have the budget, and I can’t give out a huge ticket that I’d never play.

Before I do that, though, I’ll go race-by-race and give my thoughts on each event.

RACE #1: From a betting standpoint, I could not hate this race more (optimistic start, huh?). There’s a standout on paper in the form of Algorhythmic, who’s won three in a row since being claimed by Michael Machowsky. Her best race dusts this group…but she breaks from the rail, which is a very treacherous spot in races contested on the hillside turf course.

With that said, it isn’t like the rest of the field came up all that strong. Only two of her opponents have a win at this route, and that pair features a horse stepping up out of the claiming ranks (Del Mar Ann) and one that hasn’t run since November (Easy Grader). As such, if you’re playing the Pick Five, I think Algorythmic is a “hold your nose” single. I just can’t find anyone who seems like an upset candidate.

RACE #2: Many contenders here exit the same May 21st race, one that fell apart late after some ridiculous early fractions were posted. That day’s runner up, Summer Mischief, is logical, and I’ll use her in my Pick Five, but I’ll take a shot elsewhere with my top pick.

Lady Ninja’s first two races have come down the hill, and they haven’t been bad. She didn’t break well in her debut, but rallied to finish a respectable fourth, and she followed that up with a second-place finish behind a horse named Painting Corners, who was a runaway winner that day and also coasted to victory a few days ago. Flavien Prat stays on, and we may get a bit of a price on Lady Ninja in this spot.

RACE #3: I thought this was the most challenging race of the day. It’s a maiden race for fillies going long on the turf, and most of these horses figure pretty similarly to one another.

Reluctantly, I’ll give my top pick to 12-1 shot California Breeze, who tries turf for the first time and is bred to love it (331 turf Tomlinson rating). Flavien Prat stays on for trainer Phil D’Amato, and I’m hoping she gets brave on the front end.

RACE #4: This is a fun starter handicap featuring some speedy horses going five furlongs. Forest Blue is a considerable favorite based off of some strong recent races, but he’ll face Percy’s Bluff, who reeled off eight straight wins before trying a distance that was probably too long for him. Those two could tower over the field on the odds board, and I think they do just that on paper as well.

RACE #5: I’ll focus on a few class-droppers in this claiming event, one that starts a Pick Six sequence that boasts a mandatory payout. Getoffmyback comes back to this level, one where he just missed to a next-out winner two back. I’ll use him, but he hasn’t won in a while, and his 9/5 morning line seems pretty short given that.

My top pick breaks to the likely favorite’s inside. Atomic Action was protected three back, won two back, and then ran up against a very strong field last out. The winner and third-place finisher from that race have both come back to win, and the waters are much more shallow here.

RACE #6: This is the Grade 3 American Stakes, and it features the return of Om, who just missed in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint. He’s run well fresh before, and there aren’t many heavy hitters signed on for his 2017 debut.

What could work against Om is the likely pace scenario. There’s plenty of speed signed on, and it wouldn’t be shocking if Flamboyant sat a picture-perfect trip. He hasn’t won in a while, but he may have been going a hair longer than his preferred trip for most of 2016, and he just missed at this level last time out at Golden Gate despite a wide trip.

RACE #7: The late Pick Four starts off with a real puzzler. This is a 2-year-old maiden race that’s drawn a full field of Cal-breds, and this is a spread race for me in that aforementioned sequence.

I like a pair of second-time starters most. Powerful Thirst may go off favored after an adventurous debut where he broke slowly and rallied to be fourth, while Oh Jerry took lots of money on debut and runs back fairly quickly. Still, this is a race where I think you need to buy lots of coverage if you can afford it.

RACE #8: This is a grass grab bag, and the field of 13 guarantees a tremendous betting race. I’ll use several in the late Pick Four, but I’ll be salivating if my top pick goes off close to his morning line price.

My Man Chuckles is 12-1 on the morning line, and I’m not entirely sure why. He won going down the hill two back, and ran an OK race last time out despite a post position that wasn’t ideal. Inside posts are undesirable at this route, but he was still beaten just a length and a half. The better draw in this spot should help him, as should the ample amount of early speed that appears to be lining up. I’ll gladly take double-digit odds if I can get them.

RACE #9: We’ve got an undefeated favorite in this race, and as much as I want to find holes in her resume, I can’t do that. G Q Covergirl is 3-for-3, and she came back running last time out off a long layoff. In that win, she rated a bit, which she hadn’t done in her two prior starts. There’s some speed to her outside, but Martin Garcia should have some options depending on how the race unfolds out of the gate. Improvement can be expected here, and if she steps up off her last race, she’ll be pretty tough to beat.

RACE #10: We end with a turf route that’s drawn a big field. Your guess is as good as mine with regard to who will be favored, and I like a few solid prices in here.

My top pick is I’m Living Proof, who’ll make his first start for new trainer Richard Baltas. Rafael Bejarano signs on, and he’s been gelded since his last outing, which should be a big plus. I also like 10-1 shot Insubordination, who’s flashed ample speed going down the hill. The outside draw isn’t great, but there doesn’t appear to be much early zip signed on, so he could lead them a long way.

– – – – –

$0.50 Pick Five: Race #1

R1: 1
R2: 3,6
R3: 2,5,7,8,9
R4: 3,6
R5: 1,2

40 Bets, $20

– – – – –

$2 Pick Six: Race #5

R5: 1,2
R6: 4,8
R7: 5,10
R8: 7,9,11
R9: 7
R10: 10,11

48 Bets, $96

– – – – –

$0.50 Pick Four: Race #7

R7: 3,5,7,10
R8: 6,7,9,11,13
R9: 7
R10: 5,10,11

60 Bets, $30

2017 Queen’s Plate Day Analysis, Selections, and Tickets: 7/2/17

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

Woodbine’s annual racing extravaganza is coming up Sunday. The power-packed card is headlined by the $1 million Queen’s Plate for 3-year-olds bred in Canada, and the card also features many other races with large, wide-open fields.

Making the card even more appealing to the average horseplayer are lower minimum bets for multi-race exotic wagers. Unlike in the U.S., where these wagers are in 50-cent increments, Woodbine’s minimums are 20 cents, and since a large majority of players are playing at that level, the payoff disparity is nowhere close to what one may expect. I’ve got two Pick Fives and two Pick Fours throughout the card, and the lower minimums allow me to spread very deep in certain spots. Let’s get to it!

$0.20 Pick Five: Race #2

R2: 2,8
R3: 1,2,3,9
R4: 1,2,4,6
R5: 10
R6: 3,5

64 Bets, $12.80

This is the home of our first guaranteed pool of the day, as this sequence boasts a minimum pool of $50,000. I thought it was a tricky wager to navigate, and again, this is where the lower minimum really helps.

Majestic Slew will likely be a pretty heavy favorite in the second. He’s won three races in a row and showed some flexibility last time out, rating from further back than usual and still getting up to win. If you want to single him, I get it, but Something Awesome is appealing cutting back to his preferred distance, and that one should be rolling late.

Races three and four are very difficult, and I’m hoping going four-deep in each leg is enough. If you saw this page Saturday night, you saw that I liked Biloxi Bay in the fifth. Unfortunately, the 12-1 shot, one I thought was quite live, scratched, so I’m singling Carlos Sixes, who was second behind Queen’s Plate contender Aurora Bay last out and will likely be a pretty heavy favorite.

The sixth is the King Edward, and Tower of Texas is the one to beat off a strong performance at this level last time out. I’ll also use Monster Bea, who had the deck stacked against him last time out. The early pace was not fast that day, but he still rallied to finish a strong second. He’s run competitive races at this level before, and he should be tuned up in his third start of the year.

$0.20 Pick Four: Race #4

R4: 1,2,4,6
R5: 10
R6: 3,5,6
R7: 4,6

24 Bets, $4.80

This sequence seems a bit chalky, but I did throw a few prices in there. In a departure from my Pick Five ticket, I added Shakhimat in the King Edward. There doesn’t seem to be much early speed signed on, and the presence of Javier Castellano is a plus. He certainly needs to improve to win this, but the setup is there, and I wanted a piece of him in some fashion in case that happens.

The seventh is an allowance race with an 8/5 favorite. That’s Synthesize, but I don’t think he’s a cinch. He’s lost his last six races, all at this level and never at higher odds than 4-1. My top pick is actually Lions Bay, who sits at a juicy 6-1 on the morning line. If you toss out his turf races (0-for-6) and only consider his synthetic form (5-for-19, six minor awards), he fits.

$0.20 Pick Five: Race #6

R6: 3,5
R7: 4,6,7
R8: 3,4
R9: 4,5
R10: 1,3,11,13

96 Bets, $19.20

I’m going fairly narrow to start and then opening things up in the Queen’s Plate, which doubles as the payoff leg of this sequence.

I’ve dissected the first two legs already. In a deviation from the Pick Four, I’m adding Bourbon First in the seventh. I don’t love the horse, especially at 2-1, but the low-budget approach I’m taking allows me to throw him in at not much extra cost.

The eighth is the Singspiel, and I view this as a two-horse race between morning line favorite Reporting Star and third choice Bangkok, both of whom want every bit of this 12-furlong route. I’m taking a stand against Bullards Alley, who has not won in more than a year and will be a pretty short price. I’m also going two-deep in the Dance Smartly, using 8/5 favorite Suffused and 2-1 second choice Rainha Da Bateria.

This brings us to the Queen’s Plate, and I’ve got a few thoughts. I want no part of any of the runners coming out of the Plate Trial, which was far from an impressive race. My ticket includes three logical horses. Probable favorite Holy Helena was sharp in winning the Woodbine Oaks, Channel Maker was a good second in the Grade 3 Marine against open competition, and Aurora Way showed plenty of promise winning on debut.

My big price breaks on the outside of this 13-horse field. Watch Me Strut has one bad race on his record, which came two back after a layoff of nearly six months. He rallied from well back in a paceless race last time out, and I think this race has some speed signed on. State of Honor will certainly go early, and I have a tough time believing the other riders will give him an easy lead. The faster they go early, the better this one will like it, and at 30-1, I have to throw him in.

$0.20 Pick Four: Race #10

R10: 1,3,11,13
R11: 5,7,8,11
R12: 2
R13: 3,6,7,9,10,13

96 Bets, $19.20

We come to the sequence that includes my lone single on the entire card. It’s Made You Look, who gets his preferred trip and some class relief in the Charlie Barley. I’ve spread around him, and hopefully we can get a price or two home to make this pay.

I’ve used some of the logical horses in the 11th, as well as first-time starter Heads ‘n Tails, who’s been working well ahead of her debut and may not need to be much to win. The 13th is a total mess, and if you want to hit the “ALL” button, I can’t say I blame you. I narrowed my ticket down to six horses, and hopefully, I’ve got the winner. Of the prices I used, Jail Time intrigues me the most. He’s 10-1 and took a big step forward last time out. More progression from start two to start three would make him a major player.