Black-Eyed Susan Day Analysis, Selections, and Pick Four Tickets

Preakness Eve is upon us, and with it comes a stellar card Friday at Pimlico. It features seven stakes races and plenty of wagering opportunities. I’ve got four spot plays and three multi-race wagers, and I’ll dissect all of them below! One note: There is some rain in the forecast, and the analysis here assumes that all races carded for turf stay there.

RACE #5: #6 Carrumba (3-1)

This is the Allaire DuPont Distaff, and I’m far from in love with your likely favorite. That’s #4 Terra Promessa, a fantastic horse at Oaklawn Park and an ordinary one everywhere else. I prefer the aforementioned Carrumba, who makes her third start off a long layoff and adds blinkers for trainer Shug McGaughey. Her first two came around one turn, but some of her best work has come going longer, and more specifically, around two turns. Javier Castellano has signed on to ride, and I think she could sit a dream trip just off the pace.

RACE #7: ICE COLD EXACTAS

This is the Pimlico Special, and it features the heaviest favorite of the card. That’s #6 Shaman Ghost, one of the top handicap horses in the country. However, even with him being a prohibitive favorite, I think there’s a chance to make some money playing exactas, especially if you like a price underneath.

I like two of them, and I’ll be keying Shaman Ghost with both #9 Conquest Windycity and #10 Fellowship. Conquest Windycity ran away with an allowance at Keeneland and seems to have improved a great deal since a long layoff prior to his 4-year-old campaign, while Fellowship ran against Nyquist and Exaggerator last year before going to the bench. He came back with a sharp allowance win going seven furlongs at Laurel, and the presence of Joel Rosario is a big plus.

RACE #10: #6 Take Cover (15-1)

I’m taking a big swing in the Jim McKay Turf Sprint. My thinking is that there is a LOT of speed signed on, and that the race, even at five furlongs, sets up for a closer. Take Cover fits that mold. If you toss the Parx Dash, which came over a yielding turf course, he’s finished in the top two in five of his last six starts. That includes two starts at Laurel Park where he nearly overcame two disastrous outside posts. He’s coming off a layoff here, but the workouts look strong, and if he’s anywhere close to his morning line, I have to play him.

RACE #12: #8 Arbol (5-1)

This is another turf sprint, one with a full field. As such, we may get a bit of a price on Arbol, who gets Lasix for the first time in her second start following a brief freshening. She didn’t run particularly fast early on last out, but she ran furlongs three through five in :34 1/5, which is VERY quick. Naturally, she faded to finish fourth, but given the addition of Lasix and very little quality speed to her inside, I think improvement is in the cards on Friday.

$0.50 Pick Four: Race #4

R3: 3,4,5,6,7
R4: 2,4,9
R5: 6
R6: 1,6,7,12

60 bets, $30

This ticket is built around Carrumba, and if she does not win, we lose. The first race is wide-open, and it seems devoid of any early speed, so whichever horse gets out early may have a good chance to wire the field. Private Client and Lottie headline the fourth, and I’m using both horses, but don’t sleep on Notapradaprice, who seems like the main speed in the race. Finally, I’ll go four-deep in the last leg to close things out, and hopefully, this gives us a nice score to kick off Preakness weekend.

$0.50 Pick Five: Race #7

R7: 6
R8: 3,5,10
R9: 1,5,6,8,10
R10: 4,6
R11: 3,5,9

90 bets, $45

Given the presence of Shaman Ghost in the Pimlico Special, there’s no reason to play the middle Pick Four, which starts in the eighth. This will likely pay considerably more, and it costs the same amount of money given the opening-leg single. Victory to Victory and Compelled headline the Hilltop, and I’m using both, but watch out for Chubby Star, who beat a solid allowance field last out at Keeneland and hasn’t run a bad race this year. I’m spreading in the ninth, and while I was tempted to single Take Cover in the 10th, I had to also use Pay Any Price, whose races at Gulfstream have been very, very good. Finally, we’ll hope to get a closer home in the Black-Eyed Susan, which seems to set up for one given the ample early speed that’s signed on.

$0.50 Pick Four: Race #11

R11: 2,3,5,7,8,9
R12: 8
R13: 5,9
R14: 1,5,8,10,11,12,14

84 bets, $42

The structure of this ticket allows for more spreading in the Black-Eyed Susan, since I’m singling Arbol and only going two-deep in the Skipat (using Chanteline and Clipthecouponannie). That brings us to the finale, which is a total mess. I went seven-deep, and I hope that’s enough to get the winner home if we’re still alive.

INTERLUDE: Advice for New College Graduates (From a Degenerate Horseplayer)

Most times, when I post here, it’ll be about analyzing a horse race, or a card of races, or a Pick Four sequence. However, there are times where I feel the need to expound on more important things. Don’t worry; I’m NOT going to talk about politics! Done breathing sighs of relief? Good.

Anyway, an old professor of mine posted to Facebook Monday, saying that graduating seniors at Ithaca College were starting to come up to him and panic about entering the real world. He urged former students to post their career paths, and it turned into a gathering of young professionals giving advice on how to handle what happens when what you wind up doing isn’t what you were intending to do at an earlier point in your life.

Make no mistake, I love the work that I do. I help coordinate the Daily Racing Form’s social media efforts, which is a dream job for a lifelong horse racing fan who also has a passion for the written word and other forms of media production. The path I took to get there, though, more closely resembles a map from “Rocky and Bullwinkle” (where the heroes circled around for a long time before getting to their destination) than anything else.

I’m a little young to do a “letter to my younger self” kind of piece, but I’d like to think I’ve had enough life experience to give soon-to-be graduates (and anyone else in this position) some advice on how to deal with the curveballs they’ll be thrown going forward. My advice isn’t anything revolutionary, but it’s stuff learned from dealing with things that have happened to me, and hopefully, it helps someone out there.

1) Never close any doors.

When I was in college, I did pretty much every sports media-related thing one could do. I PA-announced home sporting events. I participated in the radio and TV stations. I wrote. I tweeted. I networked. I ate lots of free press box food, some MUCH better than others (with some press boxes eschewing feeding the working press altogether; looking at you, Frostburg State!!!).

About the only two things I didn’t do much of were sports information and newspaper writing. The sports information director at Ithaca College and I were not fans of one another, to put things very mildly. In fact, he’s one of two former work associates with a special section of his very own in my memoirs, which will be released in about 30 years when I need money to play Pick Four tickets. Meanwhile, I never did much writing for Ithaca’s award-winning student newspaper simply because I was neck-deep in other stuff (plus studies towards a major and two minors) and didn’t have time for it.

You can probably guess where this is going. My first job out of college was working in the sports information office at Siena College (thankfully for people with infinitely more class than the person I could’ve worked for at Ithaca!). After two years there, I moved on to my second job, which came at, yep, a newspaper. Granted, much of my duties revolved around stuff I’d already done (video production, website work, etc.), but the fact remains that I did things I never thought I was going to do, and I’m proud of what I did while at those stops. In the nascent stages of Twitter, I helped triple the follower count of the main Siena account, and while at The Saratogian, we won three different statewide awards for our digital media coverage of racing at Saratoga Race Course.

Don’t shy away from something different. Use what you know, learn what you don’t, and run with the ball when it’s given to you.

2) Get a work/life balance, and keep it.

Your first job is going to be a head-spinning experience. As the new person, you may get all the work nobody else wants to do, and it may seem daunting at times. Word to the wise: Work to live. Do NOT live to work.

What you’re doing likely isn’t rocket science (unless you’re actually an aspiring rocket scientist, in which case, this paragraph probably isn’t for you). I can count on one hand the number of busy-work assignments I remember from my first job that had to get done, for whatever reason. There were a ton, but I don’t remember them.

I remember things like how I skipped off to an OTB in Bridgeport, Connecticut, to get out of driving my bosses around during the 2011 MAAC basketball tournament (I played races from Delta Downs with six older Korean gentlemen who did not speak English). I remember heading to a casino in West Palm Beach between rounds of a golf tournament Siena “hosted” in Florida. I remember walking around in Inner Harbor on a trip to Maryland, looking at the plates on the ground outside Camden Yards where long home runs returned to the surface.

My point: Don’t forget about the big picture. Work hard, but don’t forget to do stuff that makes you happy. There are times where that’s easier said than done. One year at Siena, I didn’t have a single day off for a six-week stretch from New Year’s Day to Super Bowl Sunday. Don’t let office life beat you down.

3) When things get tough, breathe.

You’re going to mess up at some point. Everyone does; some people just know how to deal with it better. When it happens (not if, but when), don’t take it personally. Roll with the punches, do your job to the best of your ability, and get past it.

My story: In the summer of 2012, we had almost an entirely-new sports staff at The Saratogian. A clerk, who was not a devout racing fan, published a story online that had a headline calling the Haskell at Monmouth Park the Eddie Haskell Invitational. I didn’t author the story, and in fact had nothing to do with it, but as the main on-track reporter for the publication, I was the face of the paper.

Needless to say, our editor (Kevin Moran, who’s one of the best bosses I’ve ever had) reamed us out, as he should have. A complete reassignment of the staff was discussed by senior management (above Kevin’s head), wherein I would be taken off the track so as to proofread everything before it went to press and people who weren’t necessarily racing fans would be on-track, producing racing-related content in one of the country’s few remaining horse racing hotbeds.

It was a disastrous idea, and we all knew it. We went to Kevin and fought for what we believed in, and to his everlasting credit (and probably the horror of upper management), he gave us the go-ahead to continue as we were. The next day at the track, the story was posted in the Saratoga press box, complete with the embarrassing headline. I gave it a day up there so people could get their laughs in, but the following morning, I made a show of tearing it off the wall, crumpling it up, and throwing it into the garbage can. It was a sign that it was time to move on, and move on we did, winning a pair of awards for our on-site coverage of Travers Day.

4) Be prepared for change, and don’t be afraid of it.

Things happen in life that knock the journey you think you’re on off-course. Sometimes, they’re work-related. Other times, these things have to do with personal lives. At any rate, you’ll be tested, and some of these tests won’t be fun ones.

My field (digital media) seems to change every five seconds. If I commandeered a time machine, went back to 2007, and told everyone that a form of online communication where posts are limited to 140 characters or less is one of the most valuable methods of reaching people around the world, I’d be outright laughed at. In 20 years, we’ve gone from VCR’s and tape-traders sending bulky tapes around the world to uploading clips onto YouTube, where a seemingly-infinite library of videos exist on any subject one can think of.

For that reason, the job you think you want now may not exist as-is in five to 10 years, or it may exist in a modified form. Don’t be afraid to learn new things. Be prepared for things to happen that aren’t in your plan, and meet challenges head-on. If you fall, fall forward, get something out of it, and don’t be afraid to ask for help from those who care about you or those you respect.

I was helped by a lot of people to get where I am today, and paying it forward is one of the best things anyone can do. If you’re a soon-to-be graduate, and you think you’re in for a world of hurt in the real world, I can assure you that you’re not. You’re in the same position everyone else has been in at one time or another, and everything is going to be okay.

Need to vent? Need advice? Think I’m a self-important blowhard who shouldn’t be writing stuff like this (NOTE: if so, please reconsider coming to my website)? Click here to reach out directly. I read everything that comes in.

Analysis for Monmouth Park, Santa Anita (5/13/17)

The Saturday between the Kentucky Derby and Preakness offers plenty of wagering opportunities. Santa Anita’s card boasts a pair of stakes races (including the Grade 3 Laz Barrera), and it’s also Opening Day at Monmouth Park. Those Opening Day festivities may have to deal with plenty of rain, but that could also mean some real chances to take shots with horses who are prices on the morning line.

I’ll profile a few Monmouth spot plays first, then wheel into Santa Anita. Note that my analysis for Monmouth assumes a wet track; if for some reason the weather system runs into an inconveniently-closed bridge or something and doesn’t come through, not much of this applies.

MONMOUTH PARK

R2: #6 D’marin (9/2)

This is a bottom-level claimer, and it’s NOT exactly an award-winning bunch. Big-time dropper One Sided will likely be a heavy favorite, but I’ll try to beat him. He hasn’t won since last June, and while his best race crushes this group, it’s worth noting that he’s never hit the board in three races run over wet tracks.

D’marin is another who hasn’t won in a while, but there may be a very simple reason for it. My thinking is that this 9-year-old gelding simply hates Parx. A glance at his Monmouth Park form shows seven wins and 16 top-three finishes from 23 local starts, and he also boasts a pair of wins over wet tracks. The layoff is a bit of a concern, but the presence of a 20% rider is a big plus, and I’m hoping we get a bit of a price here.

R6: #7 Full Pads (8-1)

The sixth is a $7,500 claimer, and none of these horses have won twice. However, there’s one in here I like, and he’s a nice number on the morning line.

Full Pads’s lone win came at Monmouth last summer, but the race of his I’m intrigued by is his second-place effort against $14,000 claimers here in the slop on July 29th. That was a solid group, and that day’s third-place finisher came back to win at next asking. The presence of Nik Juarez is certainly positive, and he showed plenty of early zip last time out at Parx when dueling with a runaway winner. 8-1 seems more than fair, and I hope we get it.

SANTA ANITA

$0.50 Pick Four: Race #2

R2: 3,5,7
R3: 5
R4: 3,4,7
R5: 1,2

18 bets, $9

As you can probably guess by how cheap the ticket is, I don’t expect this to pay a whole lot. With that in mind, you may want to punch it a few times to maximize a possible return.

I’m using Omega Moon in the opening leg, but I don’t think he’s unbeatable. He’ll probably get hammered down in the wagering, which could drift up the prices on the other two horses I used. My single comes in the second leg. If American Pastime runs back to his debut, everyone else is running for second money. It’s curious he runs here and not in the Laz Barrera, but this isn’t a strong group running against him, and I wouldn’t be shocked if trainer Bob Hess sweeps the exacta with the returning Supreme Venture.

There’s another strangely-spotted horse in the fourth. Cistron will be favored, and he probably should be, but why is a horse whose last race was a win going long on dirt at Oaklawn Park running back less than a month later down the hill? Plus, there’s lots of speed here, which I’m hoping opens things up for either Farley or Arms Runner. Finally, I’ll use both American Anthem and Kimbear in the Laz Barrera. If the former is right, he jogs, but those last two races leave such a bad taste in my mouth that I can’t single him. Kimbear could be the lone closer in a race full of speed, and he lost all chance in the Santa Anita Derby at the break.

$0.50 Pick Four: Race #6

R6: 4,5,6
R7: 2,3,4
R8: 1,9
R9: 1,8,9

54 bets, $27

This is a fun sequence, even if the stakes races are elsewhere on the card. The sixth may be the best betting race on the entire card, and I most prefer Cheekaboomboom, who cuts back in distance, shows a strong work on April 28th, and attracts top rider Flavien Prat. Informality is the horse to beat in the seventh on the class drop for white-hot trainer Eddie Truman, but don’t sleep on closer Redneck Crazy or fellow class-dropper Justonetimebaby (who exits a scorching-fast starter allowance race).

Tanners Pride may be a popular single in the eighth. I used him, but Hedoesitinstyle showed a lot of speed against better horses in his debut and should improve at second asking. If he does so at a price, it’ll knock plenty of tickets out. Finally, I’m going three-deep in the payoff leg. Salsita and All That Heat will probably be the first and second choices, but I also had to use 12-1 shot Blame It On Alphie, who’ll probably be half that price at post time given the connections. She hasn’t been seen since running fourth behind With Honors last September, but Richard Mandella can get a horse ready off the bench, and Mike Smith signing on to ride bodes well for her chances in this spot.

2017 Kentucky Derby Analysis, PLUS Three Pick Four Tickets

I’ve never been accused of mincing words, and I’m not going to start now. Friday was, um…NOT a good day for yours truly. On Twitter, I likened it to the start of the Drago/Rocky fight in Rocky IV, when the big Russian is beating the daylights out of the champ. Hopefully, Saturday is akin to the second half of the fight, where Rocky comes back, beats the giant, and ends the Cold War.

I’ll start by analyzing the main event, the 2017 Kentucky Derby. It’s one of the most wide-open renewals in recent memory, with every single horse seeming to have some sort of redeeming factor and massive flaw. You’re likely to get a square price on whichever horse you like, and the exotics wagers figure to be very enticing as well.

My top pick is Classic Empire. It’s by no means a top pick made with tons of conviction, or with a proclamation that he can’t lose. However, he overcame a tough trip to win the Arkansas Derby over a solid group. He was shuffled back, raced between horses most of the way around the track, and came flying late in such a way that it convinced most Saturday’s distance will not be a problem. If he can negotiate a comfortable trip (always the biggest ‘if’ in any Derby), I think he’s the horse to beat.

Having said that, I’ll be going five-deep in all multi-race exotics wagers I play. Three of the other horses are ones who will receive plenty of support at the windows. Always Dreaming is undefeated around two turns, McCraken loves Churchill Downs and should improve off the Blue Grass, and Irish War Cry’s record fits the mold of a Derby winner if you can toss his unconscionable clunker in the Fountain of Youth.

The fifth horse I’m using is my price horse, the one who would potentially make Saturday a very good day for me. That’s Tapwrit, and if you’re willing to throw out the Blue Grass, his huge price doesn’t make much sense. The 10-furlong distance should fit him like a glove given his pedigree, he’s won over a wet track before, and he turned in a flashy workout at Churchill last week leading up to the Derby. I want every bit of him at his likely price, even after his lousy race at Keeneland last month.

With all of that in mind, let’s shift gears to a few Pick Four plays for Saturday. These are posted with the same caveats as Friday’s: These tickets assume all races carded for the turf course stay there. If they get rained off, updated versions of my tickets (or advice to pass the sequences entirely) will be posted on my Twitter page.

$0.50 Pick Four: Race #2

R2: 2,4,7,8
R3: 1,5
R4: 1,5,6,7
R5: 1

32 bets, $16

This isn’t an expensive ticket, and I really like this sequence. The first and third legs are strong betting races, and I’ve got confidence in the second and fourth legs. Flashy Jewel will likely go off shorter than his 8-1 morning line in the third, and I think he’s the lone speed horse in the race. Part of me wanted to single him, but Rocket Time possesses considerable back class and merits respect coming back to a track he loves.

The fifth race features a major spot play, assuming we stay on the grass. Forge ran a strong race in his American debut last month at Keeneland, which doubled as his first race since September. He’s run up against some very tough European competition, and he faces an optional claiming group that doesn’t appear very imposing. I’ll gladly take 7/2 if I can get it, although that’s another morning line that seems very generous.

$0.50 Pick Four: Race #5

R5: 1
R6: 5,7
R7: 1,6
R8: ALL

48 bets, $24

Forge starts off this sequence, and then things get tricky. Finest City and Carina Mia head this year’s Humana Distaff, which features some other strong sprinters, and I’m hoping I can skate through only going two-deep. I’m also only going two-deep in the Distaff Turf Mile following the scratch of Miss Temple City; Linda’s been working well for Ian Wilkes, and Roca Rojo goes out for Chad Brown.

This brings us to the Pat Day Mile, which gave me headaches of increasing intensity every time I looked at it. I can make cases for almost every runner in what’s now a 12-horse field, so I’m hitting the ALL button. I know I’m going to get some heat for this on Twitter, but the fact is that I have absolutely no confidence in any opinion I could present here, and given that I can come in well under my soft budget ($40) by using each runner, that’s what I’m going to do.

$0.50 Pick Four: Race #9

R9: 2,4,7,10
R10: 2
R11: 2,6,8,9
R12: 5,14,15,16,17

80 bets, $40

In one of several animated Twitter discussions on Friday, I mentioned that I really like Pick Fours that act as glorified odds boosts on short-priced horses. Everyone wants to catch a big price, sure, but if you can take a heavily-bet favorite, single that horse in a Pick Four, and beat a favorite or two along the way, the sequence essentially turns into an odds boost. If said single is 4/5 and jogs after you play it to win, you won’t get much of a rate of return. However, if a $40 Pick Four ticket like this one hits and returns $300 or so, all of a sudden, you’ve turned that 4/5 into odds closer to 6-1. That’s value, and that’s my strategy here.

My single comes in the 10th race, the Churchill Downs. Masochistic burned me in his 2017 debut, but there are plenty of reasons to back him here. He’s easily the top early speed on paper, and if the track is playing to speed (as it often does on Kentucky Derby Day), he’s going to be very difficult to beat. This is not an easy sequence, and you need to single somewhere so as to spread in the other three legs. There are worse horses to do that with than a horse that could make an easy lead in a race without much other speed.

We dissected the Derby above, so I’ll go through the other two legs here. In the American Turf, I prefer closers Big Score and Good Samaritan, but if one of Oscar Performance or Conquest Farenheit gets away, they may be tough to catch. Meanwhile, in the Woodford Reserve, I most prefer Beach Patrol, although he’s no cinch in a wide-open betting race. Divisidero is 2-for-2 at Churchill, and both Bal a Bali and Enterprising (subbed in for the scratched World Approval) are good enough to win on their best days as well.

2017 Kentucky Oaks Day Pick Four Tickets/Analyses

Here’s my approach for Kentucky Oaks Day. I’ll have several Pick Fours explained below, and my singles double as spot plays. As a heads-up, it is supposed to be a bit wet in Kentucky on Friday, and this analysis assumes that all races carded for the turf stay there. If races come off, then some of this is outdated.

Anyway, on with the show!

$0.50 Pick Four: Race #2

R2: 1,3,4,5,6,7
R3: 3,5
R4: 4,7,8
R5: 4

36 bets, $18

If you want to spend a few more bucks and punch the “ALL” button in the first leg, go ahead. It’s one of the best betting races on the card, and chances are you’ll want to spread in there. As far as the rest of the ticket is concerned, Elate will be heavily-favored in the second leg, but her recent money-burning pattern is a big concern and Daria’s Angel may very well be the lone speed horse in the field. Sassy Little Lila will be a heavy favorite in the third leg, but she may need a race, so I sought some more coverage there. The one favorite I have tons of confidence in is Paid Up Subscriber, who’s 3-for-3 at Churchill Downs and has the pedigree to embrace a wet track.

$0.50 Pick Four: Race #4

R4: 4,7,8
R5: 4
R6: 4
R7: ALL

39 bets, $19.50

The first two legs of this Pick Four are the last two legs of the previous one, so use that analysis here. I’ll expound a bit more on my somewhat-aggressive third-leg single, which comes in the form of Honorable Duty in the Alysheba. This race has a TON of early speed signed on, and while it’s far from cheap speed, it’s safe to assume they’ll be flying early on. Honorable Duty comes in on a three-race winning streak, likes Churchill Downs, and has beaten a number of rivals he’ll face in this spot during his recent run of success. I think he’ll be tough to hold off late, and I’ll gladly take 5-1 odds if I can get them. I don’t have the same convictions about the payoff leg, but the previous legs were pretty thin, so we can afford to punch the “ALL” button and hope for a price.

$0.50 Pick Four: Race #8

R8: 1,2,4,7,9,10
R9: 3,4,7,9,10,11
R10: 1
R11: 4

36 bets, $18

The first two legs of this wager are not easy. If you have deep pockets and conviction in the last two legs, going ALL-ALL may not be the worst idea in the world. Hopefully, we can get to a cold double of favorites to finish it off, but note that La Coronel (my single in the 10th) may bypass the Edgewood for the American Turf on Saturday. If she does, this ticket will be altered (and likely cost more since the race will become much more wide-open). Paradise Woods, meanwhile, looks extremely tough to beat in the Kentucky Oaks, and I’m not going to try to do that. Hopefully, one or two of our price horses connect in the opening two legs to make this pay a bit.

$0.50 Pick Four: Race #10

R10: 1
R11: 4
R12: ALL
R13: 2,4,5,7,10,11

60 bets, $30

If you’re burnt out by this point, I get it. However, I think this Pick Four could provide a surprising return, even if it starts out in formful fashion. The 12th race is a complete mess, and the finale isn’t much clearer. That’s a recipe for a healthy Pick Four payoff, one that could provide a healthy boost to our Derby Day bankroll.