Andrew Champagne

Analysis for Monmouth Park, Santa Anita (5/13/17)

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

The Saturday between the Kentucky Derby and Preakness offers plenty of wagering opportunities. Santa Anita’s card boasts a pair of stakes races (including the Grade 3 Laz Barrera), and it’s also Opening Day at Monmouth Park. Those Opening Day festivities may have to deal with plenty of rain, but that could also mean some real chances to take shots with horses who are prices on the morning line.

I’ll profile a few Monmouth spot plays first, then wheel into Santa Anita. Note that my analysis for Monmouth assumes a wet track; if for some reason the weather system runs into an inconveniently-closed bridge or something and doesn’t come through, not much of this applies.

MONMOUTH PARK

R2: #6 D’marin (9/2)

This is a bottom-level claimer, and it’s NOT exactly an award-winning bunch. Big-time dropper One Sided will likely be a heavy favorite, but I’ll try to beat him. He hasn’t won since last June, and while his best race crushes this group, it’s worth noting that he’s never hit the board in three races run over wet tracks.

D’marin is another who hasn’t won in a while, but there may be a very simple reason for it. My thinking is that this 9-year-old gelding simply hates Parx. A glance at his Monmouth Park form shows seven wins and 16 top-three finishes from 23 local starts, and he also boasts a pair of wins over wet tracks. The layoff is a bit of a concern, but the presence of a 20% rider is a big plus, and I’m hoping we get a bit of a price here.

R6: #7 Full Pads (8-1)

The sixth is a $7,500 claimer, and none of these horses have won twice. However, there’s one in here I like, and he’s a nice number on the morning line.

Full Pads’s lone win came at Monmouth last summer, but the race of his I’m intrigued by is his second-place effort against $14,000 claimers here in the slop on July 29th. That was a solid group, and that day’s third-place finisher came back to win at next asking. The presence of Nik Juarez is certainly positive, and he showed plenty of early zip last time out at Parx when dueling with a runaway winner. 8-1 seems more than fair, and I hope we get it.

SANTA ANITA

$0.50 Pick Four: Race #2

R2: 3,5,7
R3: 5
R4: 3,4,7
R5: 1,2

18 bets, $9

As you can probably guess by how cheap the ticket is, I don’t expect this to pay a whole lot. With that in mind, you may want to punch it a few times to maximize a possible return.

I’m using Omega Moon in the opening leg, but I don’t think he’s unbeatable. He’ll probably get hammered down in the wagering, which could drift up the prices on the other two horses I used. My single comes in the second leg. If American Pastime runs back to his debut, everyone else is running for second money. It’s curious he runs here and not in the Laz Barrera, but this isn’t a strong group running against him, and I wouldn’t be shocked if trainer Bob Hess sweeps the exacta with the returning Supreme Venture.

There’s another strangely-spotted horse in the fourth. Cistron will be favored, and he probably should be, but why is a horse whose last race was a win going long on dirt at Oaklawn Park running back less than a month later down the hill? Plus, there’s lots of speed here, which I’m hoping opens things up for either Farley or Arms Runner. Finally, I’ll use both American Anthem and Kimbear in the Laz Barrera. If the former is right, he jogs, but those last two races leave such a bad taste in my mouth that I can’t single him. Kimbear could be the lone closer in a race full of speed, and he lost all chance in the Santa Anita Derby at the break.

$0.50 Pick Four: Race #6

R6: 4,5,6
R7: 2,3,4
R8: 1,9
R9: 1,8,9

54 bets, $27

This is a fun sequence, even if the stakes races are elsewhere on the card. The sixth may be the best betting race on the entire card, and I most prefer Cheekaboomboom, who cuts back in distance, shows a strong work on April 28th, and attracts top rider Flavien Prat. Informality is the horse to beat in the seventh on the class drop for white-hot trainer Eddie Truman, but don’t sleep on closer Redneck Crazy or fellow class-dropper Justonetimebaby (who exits a scorching-fast starter allowance race).

Tanners Pride may be a popular single in the eighth. I used him, but Hedoesitinstyle showed a lot of speed against better horses in his debut and should improve at second asking. If he does so at a price, it’ll knock plenty of tickets out. Finally, I’m going three-deep in the payoff leg. Salsita and All That Heat will probably be the first and second choices, but I also had to use 12-1 shot Blame It On Alphie, who’ll probably be half that price at post time given the connections. She hasn’t been seen since running fourth behind With Honors last September, but Richard Mandella can get a horse ready off the bench, and Mike Smith signing on to ride bodes well for her chances in this spot.

2017 Kentucky Derby Analysis, PLUS Three Pick Four Tickets

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

I’ve never been accused of mincing words, and I’m not going to start now. Friday was, um…NOT a good day for yours truly. On Twitter, I likened it to the start of the Drago/Rocky fight in Rocky IV, when the big Russian is beating the daylights out of the champ. Hopefully, Saturday is akin to the second half of the fight, where Rocky comes back, beats the giant, and ends the Cold War.

I’ll start by analyzing the main event, the 2017 Kentucky Derby. It’s one of the most wide-open renewals in recent memory, with every single horse seeming to have some sort of redeeming factor and massive flaw. You’re likely to get a square price on whichever horse you like, and the exotics wagers figure to be very enticing as well.

My top pick is Classic Empire. It’s by no means a top pick made with tons of conviction, or with a proclamation that he can’t lose. However, he overcame a tough trip to win the Arkansas Derby over a solid group. He was shuffled back, raced between horses most of the way around the track, and came flying late in such a way that it convinced most Saturday’s distance will not be a problem. If he can negotiate a comfortable trip (always the biggest ‘if’ in any Derby), I think he’s the horse to beat.

Having said that, I’ll be going five-deep in all multi-race exotics wagers I play. Three of the other horses are ones who will receive plenty of support at the windows. Always Dreaming is undefeated around two turns, McCraken loves Churchill Downs and should improve off the Blue Grass, and Irish War Cry’s record fits the mold of a Derby winner if you can toss his unconscionable clunker in the Fountain of Youth.

The fifth horse I’m using is my price horse, the one who would potentially make Saturday a very good day for me. That’s Tapwrit, and if you’re willing to throw out the Blue Grass, his huge price doesn’t make much sense. The 10-furlong distance should fit him like a glove given his pedigree, he’s won over a wet track before, and he turned in a flashy workout at Churchill last week leading up to the Derby. I want every bit of him at his likely price, even after his lousy race at Keeneland last month.

With all of that in mind, let’s shift gears to a few Pick Four plays for Saturday. These are posted with the same caveats as Friday’s: These tickets assume all races carded for the turf course stay there. If they get rained off, updated versions of my tickets (or advice to pass the sequences entirely) will be posted on my Twitter page.

$0.50 Pick Four: Race #2

R2: 2,4,7,8
R3: 1,5
R4: 1,5,6,7
R5: 1

32 bets, $16

This isn’t an expensive ticket, and I really like this sequence. The first and third legs are strong betting races, and I’ve got confidence in the second and fourth legs. Flashy Jewel will likely go off shorter than his 8-1 morning line in the third, and I think he’s the lone speed horse in the race. Part of me wanted to single him, but Rocket Time possesses considerable back class and merits respect coming back to a track he loves.

The fifth race features a major spot play, assuming we stay on the grass. Forge ran a strong race in his American debut last month at Keeneland, which doubled as his first race since September. He’s run up against some very tough European competition, and he faces an optional claiming group that doesn’t appear very imposing. I’ll gladly take 7/2 if I can get it, although that’s another morning line that seems very generous.

$0.50 Pick Four: Race #5

R5: 1
R6: 5,7
R7: 1,6
R8: ALL

48 bets, $24

Forge starts off this sequence, and then things get tricky. Finest City and Carina Mia head this year’s Humana Distaff, which features some other strong sprinters, and I’m hoping I can skate through only going two-deep. I’m also only going two-deep in the Distaff Turf Mile following the scratch of Miss Temple City; Linda’s been working well for Ian Wilkes, and Roca Rojo goes out for Chad Brown.

This brings us to the Pat Day Mile, which gave me headaches of increasing intensity every time I looked at it. I can make cases for almost every runner in what’s now a 12-horse field, so I’m hitting the ALL button. I know I’m going to get some heat for this on Twitter, but the fact is that I have absolutely no confidence in any opinion I could present here, and given that I can come in well under my soft budget ($40) by using each runner, that’s what I’m going to do.

$0.50 Pick Four: Race #9

R9: 2,4,7,10
R10: 2
R11: 2,6,8,9
R12: 5,14,15,16,17

80 bets, $40

In one of several animated Twitter discussions on Friday, I mentioned that I really like Pick Fours that act as glorified odds boosts on short-priced horses. Everyone wants to catch a big price, sure, but if you can take a heavily-bet favorite, single that horse in a Pick Four, and beat a favorite or two along the way, the sequence essentially turns into an odds boost. If said single is 4/5 and jogs after you play it to win, you won’t get much of a rate of return. However, if a $40 Pick Four ticket like this one hits and returns $300 or so, all of a sudden, you’ve turned that 4/5 into odds closer to 6-1. That’s value, and that’s my strategy here.

My single comes in the 10th race, the Churchill Downs. Masochistic burned me in his 2017 debut, but there are plenty of reasons to back him here. He’s easily the top early speed on paper, and if the track is playing to speed (as it often does on Kentucky Derby Day), he’s going to be very difficult to beat. This is not an easy sequence, and you need to single somewhere so as to spread in the other three legs. There are worse horses to do that with than a horse that could make an easy lead in a race without much other speed.

We dissected the Derby above, so I’ll go through the other two legs here. In the American Turf, I prefer closers Big Score and Good Samaritan, but if one of Oscar Performance or Conquest Farenheit gets away, they may be tough to catch. Meanwhile, in the Woodford Reserve, I most prefer Beach Patrol, although he’s no cinch in a wide-open betting race. Divisidero is 2-for-2 at Churchill, and both Bal a Bali and Enterprising (subbed in for the scratched World Approval) are good enough to win on their best days as well.

2017 Kentucky Oaks Day Pick Four Tickets/Analyses

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

Here’s my approach for Kentucky Oaks Day. I’ll have several Pick Fours explained below, and my singles double as spot plays. As a heads-up, it is supposed to be a bit wet in Kentucky on Friday, and this analysis assumes that all races carded for the turf stay there. If races come off, then some of this is outdated.

Anyway, on with the show!

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$0.50 Pick Four: Race #2

R2: 1,3,4,5,6,7
R3: 3,5
R4: 4,7,8
R5: 4

36 bets, $18

If you want to spend a few more bucks and punch the “ALL” button in the first leg, go ahead. It’s one of the best betting races on the card, and chances are you’ll want to spread in there. As far as the rest of the ticket is concerned, Elate will be heavily-favored in the second leg, but her recent money-burning pattern is a big concern and Daria’s Angel may very well be the lone speed horse in the field. Sassy Little Lila will be a heavy favorite in the third leg, but she may need a race, so I sought some more coverage there. The one favorite I have tons of confidence in is Paid Up Subscriber, who’s 3-for-3 at Churchill Downs and has the pedigree to embrace a wet track.

$0.50 Pick Four: Race #4

R4: 4,7,8
R5: 4
R6: 4
R7: ALL

39 bets, $19.50

The first two legs of this Pick Four are the last two legs of the previous one, so use that analysis here. I’ll expound a bit more on my somewhat-aggressive third-leg single, which comes in the form of Honorable Duty in the Alysheba. This race has a TON of early speed signed on, and while it’s far from cheap speed, it’s safe to assume they’ll be flying early on. Honorable Duty comes in on a three-race winning streak, likes Churchill Downs, and has beaten a number of rivals he’ll face in this spot during his recent run of success. I think he’ll be tough to hold off late, and I’ll gladly take 5-1 odds if I can get them. I don’t have the same convictions about the payoff leg, but the previous legs were pretty thin, so we can afford to punch the “ALL” button and hope for a price.

$0.50 Pick Four: Race #8

R8: 1,2,4,7,9,10
R9: 3,4,7,9,10,11
R10: 1
R11: 4

36 bets, $18

The first two legs of this wager are not easy. If you have deep pockets and conviction in the last two legs, going ALL-ALL may not be the worst idea in the world. Hopefully, we can get to a cold double of favorites to finish it off, but note that La Coronel (my single in the 10th) may bypass the Edgewood for the American Turf on Saturday. If she does, this ticket will be altered (and likely cost more since the race will become much more wide-open). Paradise Woods, meanwhile, looks extremely tough to beat in the Kentucky Oaks, and I’m not going to try to do that. Hopefully, one or two of our price horses connect in the opening two legs to make this pay a bit.

$0.50 Pick Four: Race #10

R10: 1
R11: 4
R12: ALL
R13: 2,4,5,7,10,11

60 bets, $30

If you’re burnt out by this point, I get it. However, I think this Pick Four could provide a surprising return, even if it starts out in formful fashion. The 12th race is a complete mess, and the finale isn’t much clearer. That’s a recipe for a healthy Pick Four payoff, one that could provide a healthy boost to our Derby Day bankroll.

Ending a Chapter and Saying “Thanks”

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

As many of you already know, May 7th is my last day as an employee of TVG. I’m leaving the network, but I’m NOT leaving the racing business, as I’ve accepted an offer to join the fantastic team at the Daily Racing Form. For many reasons, this is the right move for me, but it’s not easy to close the door on a 3 1/2-year run with TVG and the station formerly known as HRTV.

In addition to my family, my friends, and my girlfriend, there are many people at both stops that did a lot for me. Southern California has a reputation as a place where those who shake your hand are looking to stab you in the back the second you turn around, but I’ve been fortunate enough to deal with a lot of supervisors and co-workers that helped to mold me into the person I am. This column is my way of saying thank you to the following people.

Phil Kubel: We need to start here, because without Phil, there’s no way I’m in California. He met a 24-year-old kid from upstate New York in September of 2013, and despite having no obligation to help, offered me a job in HRTV’s digital media department. I gradually took on more responsibilities, and when TVG acquired HRTV a year and a half after my arrival, I was hired, in large part due to the body of work I put together under Phil’s tutelage. I’m grateful for him allowing me to get my foot in the door when he could have easily slammed it shut.

Jeff Siegel and Aaron Vercruysse: There are three on-air people I’m specifically going to call out. Although I consider many current and former TVG and HRTV hosts and analysts friends (Gino Buccola, Scott Hazelton, Kurt Hoover, Rich Perloff, Nick Hines, Joaquin Jaime, Christina Blacker, Mike Joyce, Simon Bray, Dave Weaver, and Matt Carothers, to name a bunch), Jeff and Aaron were the first two to give me a shot and let me help them on several key projects. I was a producer and fill-in talent for Santa Anita Uncut, which served as the predecessor for both HRTV/TVG Extra and XBTV’s live broadcasts, and being in that kind of an environment was one heck of an education. They didn’t have to bring me into the loop, or let me contribute as much as I did, but they did.

Caton Bredar: It’s story time. HRTV sent me to the 2014 Belmont Stakes to help cover California Chrome’s attempt to capture horse racing’s Triple Crown. While there, I assisted Jeff Siegel on a primitive version of the “Uncut” broadcasts from just outside the Belmont Park paddock. It was a good show (would’ve been better had Commissioner held on in the Belmont at ridiculous odds!!!), but what I remember most came after it was over.

I was in the rickety HRTV trailer close to the Long Island Railroad platform after the races were over when Caton walked in. We’d just met for the first time earlier that week, and we didn’t know each other too well, but she got my attention, looked at me, and asked, “Are you trying to steal everyone’s jobs? You were really good!”

In my brief career to date, I’ve gotten a lot of feedback, both good and not so good, from some pretty powerful and/or well-known people. I can recite many pieces of hate mail from memory, including one from a Kentucky Derby-winning owner and another from upper management at a VERY prominent racetrack! There is no question that what Caton said to me is still the best compliment I’ve ever received from anyone in the horse racing business, and it’s something I won’t soon forget. Caton, if you’re reading: Thanks.

Kip Levin, Phil Dixon, Enrico Rusi, Bhavesh Patel: I needed to lump all four of these current or former TVG executives into one spot. We’ve all had bad experiences with higher-ups at companies at one time or another. However, I need to thank the members of this quartet for being an easy group to work with and/or for.

I’ll keep this short, but I want to point stuff out individually that marks how instrumental each person was in what I was able to do. Kip saw my passion for racing immediately, and he backed a lot of what I wanted to do on social media. Phil was always receptive when I had a line on a horse and never once tried to limit my enthusiasm for what I did despite having an office five steps from my desk. Enrico, the head of the TVG marketing department, was my second-line manager for a while, and the way he dealt with me following a key moment several weeks ago stands as a shining example for how to treat people in an honest, respectful way.

I ended with Bhavesh because there’s another story I need to tell. When I was hired from HRTV, he and Stephen Kennelly (more on him later) took me to lunch. Bhavesh’s management style was to ask challenging questions, and he asked what I felt the most pressing issue in horse racing was. Unbeknownst to him, I’d been asked that question many times before, so I had an honest answer ready about how the breeding industry commands racing’s best horses to leave the track earlier and earlier while also breeding for speed instead of soundness or stamina. As I recall, I did not take a breath for a solid minute when putting forth my answer, which may or may not have sounded like a sticking point in a politician’s stump speech.

My guess is that Bhavesh wasn’t prepared for that kind of reaction. Not only did he not ask me a single question for the rest of lunch, but over the next few months, I became the guy entrusted with growing HRTV/TVG Extra, as well as acquiring eyeballs on TVG’s audio-visual products through YouTube, Twitter, and other forms of social media. I need to thank him for acknowledging that I knew what I was doing, and also for letting me do it. This sounds REALLY simple, but sometimes, it doesn’t take a lot to manage your employees well.

Stephen Kennelly and Rebecca Somerville: If all managers were as talented as these two, all workplaces would be a lot more pleasant. Stephen managed me in marketing, Rebecca (also known as Becky Witzman) managed me in live production, and I’m grateful to both for the work I was allowed to do on their watch.

The reason you saw blog posts, videos, tickets, and Periscope broadcasts from me on TVG’s platforms for so long is because Stephen allowed it and, for the most part, didn’t tell me to stop. Meanwhile, under Rebecca, I’ve coordinated TVG’s Facebook Live streams and continued to grow our social media audience. For better or for worse, I wanted a career in media production because it just seemed more fun than 99% of the alternatives out there. In this case, my first-line managers did what they could to keep my fire lit, which made me more productive and also allowed me to enjoy what I did.

The TVG marketing department: If I seem wordy, or loud, or pompous to you as you consume this (or anything else I’ve written or produced), imagine dealing with me in-person in a bullpen-style setup all day. Not exactly a duty that inspires much enthusiasm, is it? Well, that’s the unfortunate task that was hoisted upon members of the TVG marketing department beginning in 2015, and whether you realize it or not, these people are some of the hardest-working employees in the world of online gambling.

If there’s a promotion happening, it’s their doing, from the planning stages all the way to when gamblers get paid out. Stuff changes all the time with little to no advance notice, and if technological failures arise, they deal with them as much or more than any other part of the company (quick aside: If you’ve tweeted mean things at TVG over the past two years, I was the one who saw them; if you got really mean, I accept apologies in the form of donations to your local no-kill animal shelter and gift certificates to sports bars). This cast of characters that includes Danny Kovoloff, Luciana Bach, Freddy Sundara, Tommy Gaebel, and Pedro “Cache Flush” Friere is among the best in the business at what they do, and these people don’t get anywhere near the props they deserve, either for doing their jobs or for dealing with my motor mouth as well as they have.

—

They say it takes a village to raise a child. From my standpoint, it certainly took a lot of people to mold me into the person I’ve become. I could go into the reasons why I’m leaving to take on a new challenge, but what’s more important is to recognize all of the people that helped me succeed in the jobs I’ve held for 3 1/2 years. Without the people I’ve mentioned, you’re probably not on this site right now.

To those I mentioned, it’s been a pleasure working with you, and this has been my way of expressing that.

The Hall of Fame Case of Gio Ponti

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

I have an annual ballot for the National Museum of Racing and Hall of Fame. It’s one of the biggest honors that anyone covering racing can receive, and voting is a responsibility I don’t take lightly.

This year, I voted for all four of the finalists who will be enshrined in Saratoga Springs this summer. That list includes three-time Breeders’ Cup Mile winner Goldikova and jockeys Javier Castellano, Victor Espinoza, and Garrett Gomez.

One finalist who did not make my ballot was Gio Ponti, one of the top turf horses in the U.S. from 2009 through 2011. Simply put, I just didn’t think Gio Ponti was a Hall of Famer. This was in stark contrast to the views of several people I respect, including TVG’s Darin Zoccali, TwinSpires’s Ed DeRosa, fellow Saratogian alum Will Springstead, and Horse Racing Nation’s Brian Zipse, who didn’t vote for Gio Ponti but saw him as a very tough cut from his eventual ballot.

Due to this disagreement, I’ve gotten in several very animated discussions about the topic, and the only way I know how to resolve this is by writing way, way, way too many words about it. As such, here we are, debating the Hall of Fame merits of Gio Ponti through a multiple-step process. As a heads-up, if it turns out that this winds up being a popular piece, I have no problem analyzing the cases of other finalists and other horses, trainers, or jockeys who will be up for election in the next few years, so let me know what you think.

WHY VOTE FOR GIO PONTI?

Gio Ponti’s main strength is his longevity. He won stakes races in five consecutive seasons, competed in four Breeders’ Cup events, and captured seven Grade 1 races. He raced 29 times, and finished first or second on 22 occasions while racking up more than $6.1 million in earnings, much of which came following a pair of second-place finishes in Breeders’ Cup races (the 2009 Classic and the 2010 Mile). Those races were won by Hall of Famers Zenyatta and Goldikova.

WHY VOTE AGAINST GIO PONTI?

He failed to win a single Breeders’ Cup race despite multiple opportunities, and he came along during a time where the American turf division was, to put it mildly, extremely weak. Additionally, while he was voted Champion Grass Horse in 2010, that honor came after a campaign where he won just two races from seven starts, and he only won once in six 2011 starts to boot. What kind of an indictment is it on his competition when the horse deemed America’s best on turf lost 10 of his final 13 races?

Admittedly, there’s no shame in running second to Zenyatta and Goldikova, or even Cape Blanco, who dusted him a few times in 2011 and could have been Horse of the Year had an injury not robbed him of a chance to compete in the Breeders’ Cup. However, looks at his career record also reveal losses to forgettable horses like Mission Approved, Debussy, Winchester, and Karelian. This isn’t a case of a horse like Alydar or Easy Goer, where repeated losses to Hall of Famers were soothed by dominant wins over most of their peers. Gio Ponti had a stellar 2009 season (one that included four straight Grade 1 wins at three different tracks), but voters held their noses when giving him the 2010 award, and his 2011 campaign was nothing to write home about.

HISTORICAL COMPARISONS

In debating Gio Ponti’s merits, I actually had one Gio Ponti supporter say the words, “Stats are for losers.” I could crack wise about how said supporter clearly went to the Donald Trump School of Debate, but instead, I’m going to use Gio Ponti’s resume as a comparison point for other horses, so as to illustrate the validity of his Hall of Fame candidacy. Admittedly, there are times where stats don’t tell the full story of what a horse accomplished, but many times, a blind comparison of accomplishments can shine a brighter light onto a given situation such as this one.

Gio Ponti
Career Record: 29-12-10-1
Earnings: $6,169,800
Graded Stakes Wins (Grade 1 Wins): 10 (Seven)
Breeders’ Cup Wins (Appearances): Zero (Four)

Horse A
Career Record: 31-23-2-0
Earnings: $7,552,920
Graded Stakes Wins (Grade 1 Wins): 19 (11)
Breeders’ Cup Wins (Appearances): Two (Three)

Horse B
Career Record: 25-14-8-0
Earnings: $2,515,289
Graded Stakes Wins (Grade 1 Wins): 10 (Three)
Breeders’ Cup Wins (Appearances): Two (Three)

Horse C
Career Record: 30-14-7-2
Earnings: $2,293,384
Graded Stakes Wins (Grade 1 Wins): 10 (Two)
Breeders’ Cup Wins (Appearances): One (Five)

Horse D
Career Record: 29-13-6-4
Earnings: $2,321,751
Graded Stakes Wins (Grade 1 Wins): Nine (Three)
Breeders’ Cup Wins (Appearances): One (Five)

For purposes of this comparison, I deliberately chose horses that fit Gio Ponti’s career profile. Namely, they raced for sustained periods of time, mainly in graded stakes company, and they appeared in multiple Breeders’ Cup events not named the Breeders’ Cup Classic. Gio Ponti ran second in that race in 2009 when that race was run over a synthetic surface, but comparing him to horses that ran in that race multiple times wouldn’t be fair to him.

Horse A, as most of you probably figured out, is Wise Dan. On credentials, Wise Dan towers over the rest of these horses, including Gio Ponti. Naysayers will counter that he doubles as the main horse of substance that Gio Ponti beat. That matchup came in the 2011 Shadwell Turf Mile at Keeneland. However, Wise Dan wasn’t quite WISE DAN yet. From 2012 through 2014, Wise Dan lost twice in 17 races, a stretch that included back-to-back Breeders’ Cup Mile wins and six Eclipse Awards. He’s a first-ballot Hall of Famer when he comes up for election, and it’s not because of his pre-2012 form.

Horse B is Lure. Lure was arguably the top turf miler of the 1990’s, and while his earnings don’t stack up with those of Wise Dan or Gio Ponti, it must be pointed out that he simply wasn’t running for those kinds of purses during his racing career. Additionally, some of the non-Grade 1 races he won would absolutely be considered Grade 1 races today. For these reasons, Lure had to wait nearly two decades to be enshrined in the Hall of Fame (as much as I love the Hall of Fame and everything it stands for, Lure probably should’ve gone in sooner).

Horse C is Kona Gold. Kona Gold was a finalist for the Hall of Fame this year, and like Gio Ponti, he didn’t get in. Kona Gold is similar to Lure in that he was a victim of the time period in which he ran. Many sprint races that are considered Grade 1 events now weren’t given that billing or the appropriate purse money during Kona Gold’s heyday, and he suffered for that. A scan of his career, though, also reveals some parallels to Gio Ponti. Kona Gold also had one dominant campaign, which came in 2000 when he won five of six starts, including the Breeders’ Cup Sprint. Like Gio Ponti, he stayed on for several seasons after that, running good races but none that quite channeled the form he showed in his best year. I don’t see a camp championing Kona Gold’s candidacy, and certainly not a camp that’s done so as loudly as the one backing Gio Ponti!

Horse D is, I feel, the most damning comparison with regard to Gio Ponti’s Hall of Fame candidacy. This is Obviously, winner of the 2016 Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint. I want to stress that I am not saying that Obviously is a better horse than Gio Ponti, so please, don’t twist my words around. However, look at the accomplishments side-by-side. Does Gio Ponti’s dwarf Obviously’s? I don’t think it does. Yes, the seven Grade 1 wins are a substantial advantage to Obviously’s three, and the disparity in career earnings is noteworthy. However, Obviously has a Breeders’ Cup win to his credit and was also third behind Wise Dan and Animal Kingdom in the 2012 Breeders’ Cup Mile. That has to count for something.

Gio Ponti is a better horse than Obviously. Is his resume THAT much better? I don’t think so, and I feel like that’s a necessary acid test.

THE VERDICT

Gio Ponti was a fun horse to root for. Any horse that finishes in the top two in 22 of 29 career starts deserves consideration for racing’s highest honor, and he’s certainly a worthy finalist.

However, the quality of horses Gio Ponti ran against must be considered. If he had dominated those horses and fell only to the likes of Zenyatta and Goldikova, I would be much more inclined to vote for him. However, with the exception of one dominant campaign, he wasn’t the caliber of horse that deserves enshrinement amongst the greatest in the history of the sport. He was the best of a very bad group in 2010, and he won just once in 2011. It takes more than one great season to put a horse in the Hall of Fame.

VERDICT: NOT A HALL OF FAMER