Andrew Champagne

Santa Anita/Charles Town Pick Four Analyses: 4/22/17

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

SANTA ANITA

BONUS SELECTION: #2 Banze No Oeste, Race #1 (3-1)

We start off the Saturday card with a $32,000 claimer going down the hill, and Banze No Oeste has a number of things in his favor. It’s his second start off a layoff, it’s his first outing since being gelded, and he drops down in class off an effort that wasn’t so bad. He probably needed the March 4th race after a long break, and a glance at his 2016 running lines indicates plenty of affinity for this course. I think 3-1 is a very fair price, and I’ll be happy if we get it.

LATE PICK FOUR

R7: 1,2,4,7,8
R8: 1
R9: 1,2,5,9
R10: 3,5,11

60 bets, $30

This Pick Four ticket is built around the single of #1 Collected in the eighth, the Grade 2 Californian. Every other leg of this sequence is very challenging, and if you have another single elsewhere in the sequence, punching the “ALL” button in one of the other legs may not be a bad idea.

The one longshot I think you need to throw on your tickets runs in the finale. It’s #3 Red Lightning, a first-time starter from the barn of William Morey. Morey’s record with first-time starters isn’t the greatest, but the worktab shows that this son of Midshipman has plenty of speed, and that’s no accident. His dam, the Stormy Atlantic mare She Too, also threw a horse by the name of Its Me Mom, who won several stakes races at sprint distances. The presence of Kent Desormeaux is a plus, and we’re certainly getting a juicy price at 8-1 on the morning line.

CHARLES TOWN

ALL-STAKES PICK FOUR

R9: 1,2,4,9
R10: 2,4,6
R11: 1,5
R12: 5,8,9

72 bets, $36

It’s Charles Town Classic Day, and that means an ultra-challenging all-stakes Pick Four sequence. That’s reflected in the structure of this ticket, which boasts no singles. Hopefully, we can earn part of the juicy $100,000 guaranteed pool.

I wanted to single #1 Stanford in the Charles Town Classic. He’s the defending champion, and his proven ability to handle the bullring track setup is a big plus. However, I had to also use #5 Imperative, who also has a win in this race on his resume and could get an ideal setup. His owner has entered two others in this race, and both have early speed. Imperative could be in a great position to pick up the pieces late.

Relay for Life Contest Selections/Analysis: 4/15/17

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

Handicapping contests can be a fun way to put your skills to the test, and there’s one recurring contest that I really enjoy playing. A student from St. John’s University runs it, and the skinny is that you get a $2 across-the-board bet on each of eight or so contest races, with the winners getting some cool stuff. The cost is a $5 donation to Relay for Life, a worthy cause if ever there was one.

As such, today’s post summarizes my selections in these races. If you’re interested in my Pick Fours, I’ll have two on my Twitter page for your consumption (one at Keeneland, one at Oaklawn). If you’d like to play the contest, the appropriate links are up at the top of the page. In the meantime, here are my picks (and alternates, in the event of scratches) and why I like them!

Keeneland, R4: #9 Connected Fitness (6-1)

This is a maiden special weight event with a big field, so it’s the perfect contest race. This is great for me, because I think 6-1 is a sizable overlay on Connected Fitness, a first-time starter with a huge worktab for trainer Horacio DePaz. DePaz has connected at a 32% rate with debuting runners, go-to rider Jose Ortiz climbs aboard, and the pedigree suggests this filly can run. She’s a half to Race Day, a multiple Grade 2 winner, and her dam (Rebalite) is a half-sister to Lite Light, a brilliant filly who ran in the early-1990’s and was owned by MC Hammer (yes, THAT MC Hammer). I think she means business, and I hope we get a bit of a price on her. ALTERNATE SELECTION: #4 Malibu Bonnie (8-1).

Aqueduct, R7: #7 My Impression (2-1)

I don’t like betting favorites in contests unless I’m convinced they’re extremely well-meant. That’s the case here with My Impression, a five-time winner in 10 career starts. She’s been running against much better horses; a glance at her PP’s reveals tries against the likes of Time and Motion and Dickinson, who merit respect in the Grade 1 Jenny Wiley at Keeneland. She’s got a bit more early zip than she showed last time out, and I think she’s the most likely winner. ALTERNATE SELECTION: #4 My Sweet Girl (6-1).

Keeneland, R8: #7 Lady Aurelia (6/5)

Here’s the second of two favorites that I think will be very tough to beat. At her best, Lady Aurelia may be the best turf sprinter on the planet. She was very impressive in two wins overseas against top-notch competition last year, and this will serve as a prep for a return trip to Royal Ascot. Anything remotely close to her victories last year will make her very difficult to beat, and despite the big field that lines up here, anything over even-money Saturday would probably be an overlay. ALTERNATE SELECTION: #10 Pretty Perfection (5-1).

Keeneland, R9: #4 No Dozing (4-1)

Given the losses by McCraken and Tapwrit in the Blue Grass, the 3-year-old races at Tampa Bay Downs may not be as imposing as they look on paper. However, this spot represents significant class relief for No Dozing, who’s worked well ahead of his try on Saturday and could sit a perfect trip just off the speed. He chased fast fractions last time out, and he could be in an ideal position to have first run on the early leaders in a race featuring a short stretch run to the first wire. ALTERNATE SELECTION: #2 Souper Tapit (10-1).

Oaklawn, R9: #2 Domain’s Rap (8-1)

Midnight Storm is an imposing favorite, and he’s my alternate choice in the event of a scratch. However, the presence of Madefromlucky should ensure that Midnight Storm doesn’t sit a perfect trip as the lone early speed. Domain’s Rap has been worse than third just once in nine starts at Oaklawn, and his last effort was a solid second behind Mor Spirit. Before that, he was third to eventual Dubai World Cup runner-up Gun Runner in the Razorback. Midnight Storm may not be on the same level as those horses, and if Madefromlucky puts pressure on our likely favorite, I expect Domain’s Rap to be picking up the pieces late at a nice price. ALTERNATE SELECTION: #3 Midnight Storm (1/2).

Keeneland, R10: #4 Dickinson (8-1)

I have all the respect in the world for Lady Eli, who’s won seven of nine starts and whose best race probably wins this. However, the rail draw is a concern for her, and she may need the race off a long layoff. As such, for contest purposes, I’ve opted for the in-form Dickinson, who’s won four of five starts (including two graded stakes races) since being switched to the turf. I like that her form didn’t suffer when going away from Gulfstream Park last time out in the Grade 2 Hillsborough, and her workouts since that effort have been very sharp. I’ll gladly take a swing, and if Lady Eli beats me, I’ll live with it (unless Dickinson scratches, in which case, she’s my alternate!). ALTERNATE SELECTION: #1 Lady Eli (even).

Oaklawn, R11: #9 Untrapped (6-1)

I wanted to get away from the two likely favorites. Classic Empire makes his first start since the Holy Bull and may need a race, while Malagacy will break from the far outside in this 12-horse field. Among the rest of the field, the one with the most potential to improve may be Untrapped. Mike Smith comes on, trainer Steve Asmussen adds blinkers, and he’s yet to run a bad race to this point in his career. He may have moved a hair too soon when third in the Rebel, and if the work on April 2nd is any indication, he could be ready to fire a big shot. ALTERNATE SELECTION: #11 Conquest Mo Money (15-1).

Handicapping Slumps, and How to Beat Them

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

Some of you who have visited my new site have been nice enough to write in through the ‘contact’ feature. I read every message I get, and one I got Monday resonated with me in a very particular way.

It was from Ed in New Mexico. Ed is a handicapper (and by all indications, a very nice guy!) who admitted he seemed to be in a rut, and he asked me if there was anything I could recommend to get him out of it.

It takes a lot of guts to admit you’re in a slump, and it also takes strength to reach out and ask for advice. That isn’t something everyone does. As such, this blog post is intended to serve as my two cents on slump-busting, and hopefully, horseplayers out there can take something from it.

My take on slumps is this: It’s not if you’re losing, or even how much money you’re losing (although one should certainly bet within his/her financial means at all times). More than anything (to me, at least!), what’s important is HOW your bets are losing. That makes all the difference in the world, and if you can correctly diagnose the problem, then chances are you’ll have taken a big step towards future handicapping success.

The first thing I suggest is to study your bets, relive your philosophy, and see where things went wrong. Go into your betting archives (every ADW website has them), watch replays of races you’ve bet on, and take yourself through why you made the bets you placed.

If you consider yourself a skilled handicapper, there’s a reasonable chance that, a sizable percentage of time, your pre-race opinion will actually be closer to what happened than you’d like to admit. Maybe you thought a horse would get loose on the lead, and it did, only to get run down. Perhaps you thought a race would set up for a closer, and it did, but you bet the wrong late-running horse. Alternatively, from a betting standpoint, maybe your three-horse exacta box ran 1-3-4, maybe the longshot you put a win-place bet on ran very well, only to finish third, or maybe your Pick Four ticket went 3-for-4.

If any of this sounds familiar, I’ve got good news for you: That’s just racing luck. You aren’t doing as much wrong as a profit/loss sheet will show you, and you’re not seeing the ball badly. It’s the horse racing equivalent of a baseball player getting ahold of a fastball and crushing it, but it going to the deepest part of the playing field and getting caught, or getting lined right at a defensive player. The stats only show it as an out, and it looks the same as a weak ground ball to the pitcher, but the hitter did a lot right that the stat sheet won’t show.

Once you clear that mental hurdle, look at the horses you’ve bet on. Did they fall victim to track biases? Are you overvaluing certain connections or angles that aren’t as profitable as they’ve been in the past? Is there one condition or route of ground where your ROI really suffers? Handicapping is like anything else in life in this respect: The more homework you do, the more prepared you’ll be for success moving forward.

If it turns out you’re off by a considerable margin, look at the horses that do well at certain tracks, class levels, and routes of ground. What trends do you see? How does this go against your handicapping? Is there a measure you can take to tweak your approach to those races, and are there races you should skip because you’re not confident enough to bet them consistently? Don’t be afraid to ask yourself the tough questions. Often, answering them will make you a better, more profitable horseplayer.

I made a baseball reference earlier, and there’s another comparison between sports that needs to be made. Baseball players and handicappers both tend to fail similar amounts of time. Good handicappers strive for about 30% winners as far as win-only selections are concerned, and good baseball players strive to hit .300. The important thing to remember is that a 30% success rate means a 70% failure rate. If you fancy yourself a serious handicapper, you must come to terms with the fact that you are going to be wrong most of the time in some way, shape, or form.

What’s important is not how often you fail, but how you apply what you know every time you look at a race, go to a betting window, or fire up your ADW account. If you get knocked out of a Pick Four sequence early, and realize you’re seeing the ball well and have confidence in your selections, jump back in with a double or a Pick Three. If your top picks are running second and third consistently, box exactas rather than keying that 10-1 horse you think can win. If you know you’re not having a good day and you see your handicapping is all over the place, relax, find something else to do, and regroup once you can re-examine where things went amiss. This game is a marathon, not a sprint, and gambling opportunities are plentiful every single day.

Not everyone wants to shine a light on where things went wrong. However, doing that, and seeing where, why, and how certain bets may have gone haywire, is something I’ve found key to busting out of slumps. It’s a confidence-booster if the horses you like run well, and it’s an instructional tool if your approach needs refinement. Ed: Hopefully, that answers your question.

Got a question? Got a gripe? Think there’s something I should know? Head to the ‘contact’ section, and send me a message. Like I said, I read everything that gets sent my way.

Pick Four Analysis: Wood Memorial, Blue Grass, Santa Anita Derby Day (4/8/17)

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

We’ve got three Kentucky Derby prep races coming up Saturday. Last week, this space featured how to play these races on $20 budgets. However, we had a very good day with Pick Four tickets, as two of them hit (including a $6 ticket at Gulfstream that returned nearly $230!). With that in mind, I’m going to focus on Pick Four sequences at Aqueduct, Keeneland, and Santa Anita that all feature these prep races and could present some value.

AQUEDUCT

$0.50 Pick Four: Race #9

R9: 8
R10: 3,7,8
R11: 1,4,5,8
R12: 1,3,7

36 bets, $18

RATIONALE: #8 Unified will be a popular single in the opening leg, the Grade 1 Carter, and for good reason. He defeated Mind Your Biscuits in his 4-year-old debut, and that rival went on to cruise home in the Dubai Golden Shaheen. #2 Tommy Macho and #9 Ocean Knight are solid horses, but if Unified repeats or improves upon his last-out effort, he’ll be very tough to beat.

I used the logical horses in legs two and three, the Wood Memorial and the Gazelle. The only horse that will likely take money in the Wood while remaining off my ticket is #2 Mo Town, whose Remsen win has lost plenty of its luster with those he beat not doing much since then. I went four-deep in the Gazelle, and I hope that’s enough, as I’m not sold on this year’s crop of 3-year-old fillies and it seems like many of these can win.

The nightcap features my price play of the day across all three tracks. The entry of #1 Broken Engagement and #1A Super Luke will likely be favored, and #3 Build to Suit merits respect, too. However, there’s a longshot that I think you need to use. #7 Money Laundering’s pedigree doesn’t jump off the page, but he fetched a respectable $40,000 at auction last May after being bred for just $3,500. A deep dive shows that his dam is a half-sister to Hilda’s Passion, a Grade 1-winning sprinter. The workouts are solid, trainer Bruce Levine can win with first-time starters, and with the exception of Broken Engagement and maybe #5 Altesino (who’s 0-for-7 with six minor cashes, the kind of horse I HATE betting in a Pick Four sequence), the form among those that have run before isn’t anything to write home about. He’s 15-1 on the morning line, and I hope we get that price.

KEENELAND

$0.50 Pick Four: Race #7

R7: 2,3,6,7,8
R8: 4,5,6
R9: 2
R10: 2,4,7

45 bets, $22.50

RATIONALE: The fields in this sequence aren’t huge, but this Pick Four could still pay handsomely. There may not be a single prohibitive favorite in this group of races, and if you can find a spot to take a stand, I think you can create some value.

The Shakertown kicks things off, and it’s a handicapping puzzle. If you want to hit the “ALL” button, I get it (that turns the ticket into a $40.50 play), but I was able to at least throw four horses out. The Madison (the second leg) is no picnic, either, but I settled on going three-deep with horses that are in good form: #4 Constellation, #5 High Ridge Road, and #6 Paulassilverlining.

My single comes in the third leg, the Ashland. #2 Elate salvaged third in the Grade 3 Honeybee despite an absolutely awful break, and the horse that won that race, It Tiz Well, will likely be the second choice in a much tougher spot (the Santa Anita Oaks). Elate has hinted at tons of potential in her short career, and barring more adventures leaving the gate, I think she could sit a dream trip just off the early speed. If she does, I think she’ll be tough to beat.

In the Blue Grass, I used three of the four logical horses. I’m not sold on J Boys Echo, who may have trounced a weak field in the Gotham and gets a stiff class test here against some of the top 3-year-olds in the country. I’ll let him beat me if he’s good enough, and I’ll settle on #2 McCraken, #4 Tapwrit, and #7 Practical Joke.

SANTA ANITA

$0.50 Pick Four: Race #8

R8: 2,3,6,9
R9: 1
R10: 1,4,6,8 (2)
R11: 2,3,5,9,10

80 bets, $40

RATIONALE: Some Pick Fours should be treated like win bets with enhanced odds, and this is one of them. I’m going deep in three of the four legs and singling #1 Sircat Sally in the Providencia. She’ll likely be even-money, at best. However, if this Pick Four hits, I’ll likely get at least 4-1 on my money, making it a worthwhile investment.

That payoff is because the other three races are very tough. The Santa Anita Derby kicks things off, and while #9 Iliad is a nice horse and a worthy favorite, he’s no cinch. #6 American Anthem’s effort in the Rebel is a complete throw-out, and the 1-2 finishers in a March 9th allowance event, #3 Battle of Midway and #2 Reach the World, have both worked lights-out since then.

The 10th is the Echo Eddie for Cal-breds, and it’s the first of two very challenging races to close things out. #8 California Diamond is an honest horse who’s never been out of the top two in 10 career starts, but this may be the toughest field he’s faced at the state-bred level. If there are any scratches of horses I’ve used in this race, throw in #2 B Squared, a sibling to Grade 1 winner Ralis who I just didn’t have the budget to use.

As far as the 11th is concerned…good luck. We’ve got class drops, equipment switches, and jockey changes, all among a group of horses that, by and large, hasn’t shown a whole lot. There is one big price I used here. #10 Great is 20-1 on the morning line, but he takes a drop into the maiden claiming ranks for the first time and exits what seems like a very strong maiden special weight event. That race last month was his first outing since November, and improvement is certainly logical at a big price.

Keeneland Opening Day Late Pick Four Analysis (4/7/17)

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

Friday is Opening Day at Keeneland, and we’ve got a late Pick Four sequence that, with a little bit of luck, could pay handsomely. I won’t do this for every racing day, but for Opening Day, it’s prudent to go through the late Pick Four sequence and offer a ticket.

As with the Rainbow Six write-up from Sunday, I’ll go race-by-race and explain my rationale. Hopefully, this $36 ticket will be a more fruitful endeavor!

RACE #7: 2, 6, 7, 8, 11, 13 (12)

This is a very difficult race to decipher, and if you’ve got deep enough pockets to hit the “ALL” button, go right ahead. I’ll be using six horses in here, and hopefully that’s enough. Four are second-time starters, and that counts #13 Tweeting, who is on the also-eligible list. If there are any scratches, or if Tweeting does not draw in, replace the scratched horse with #12 Swat, who merits respect coming off the layoff for the team of Eddie Kenneally and Javier Castellano.

One horse to watch at a price in here is #2 Miss Adele, who’s been working lights-out at Payson Park in Florida. Roger Attfield hasn’t had a great year so far, but Paco Lopez hops aboard after a strong Gulfstream meet, and this one is a juicy 15-1 on the morning line.

RACE #8: 3

The first of two singles on my ticket comes in the eighth. #3 Mutaraamy is a standout by any measure in this six-furlong allowance. It’s safe to assume he’s had his issues, as this gelding will make just the fourth start of his career on Friday. However, his best race likely means a romp in this spot, and all indications are that such an effort is on the horizon.

RACE #9: 4

#4 Oscar Performance was last seen beating a number of these rivals in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf. He makes his 3-year-old debut in this spot, the Grade III Transylvania, and despite the layoff, I can’t go against him. On paper, he looks like the main early speed in here, and while I respect the likes of Ticonderoga, Sonic Boom, and Big Score (all very solid turf horses in what could be a fun division to follow), any of those three would have to improve substantially to beat Oscar Performance if that one fires his best shot.

RACE #10: ALL

You may have seen this coming after the back-to-back singles. The fact is, I do not have a clue how to break down the payoff leg of this Pick Four sequence. This is a very tricky condition, featuring turf horses running on dirt, horses on the way up the class ladder, and horses dropping down. I couldn’t begin to narrow this down, but thankfully, I didn’t have to in order to come in under my soft budget of $40. I’m using them all here, and hopefully, we can sit back, relax, and get a price home to close things out.

THE TICKET

R7: 2,6,7,8,11,13 (12, in the event of a scratch)
R8: 3
R9: 4
R10: ALL

72 bets, $36