BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $954

If you have money in the, “when will Andrew use this space for a cheap plug?,” pool, listen up! Closing night in Hong Kong is coming up on Sunday. If you’re up late on Saturday or early on Sunday (I don’t judge either scenario!), tune into the North American simulcast feed from Sha Tin.

The first post time is 4 am Eastern. I’ll be providing insight on each race, and if you like big fields of super-talented horses, you’re in for a treat.

Being able to do this the last six weeks or so has been an absolute blast. I’d like to thank the Hong Kong Jockey Club and everyone there for their hospitality and support. It’s been an honor to share the stage with some folks who are among the best in the world at what they do, and hopefully, I can give out a few winners to finish off the season.

FRIDAY’S RESULTS: The seventh was indeed a grass grab bag, but I was nowhere close and dropped $24.

SATURDAY’S PLAY: I’ll focus on the ninth race, where I really hope we get the 10-1 morning line price on #1 TIDAL FORCES. I’ll have a $10 win bet on him, and I’ll key him in $3 exactas above and below #7 GEORGIE W, #8 IRISH ACES, and #9 BEUYS.

TOTAL WAGERED: $28.

Today’s multi-race analysis focuses on the late Pick Four. You can get my betting strategies for one multi-race sequence each day for just $5 over at Winners and Whiners. If you want concentrated thoughts on one particular sequence, this is where you’ll find them!

Winners and Whiners is your home for the best sportsbook bonuses on the market. Check out expert handicapping picks for all major sports, including baseball, basketball, hockey, and football!

SELECTIONS/ANALYSIS

Friday: 4-for-9
Meet: 5-for-20

Best Bet: Studlydoright, Race 11
Longshot: Abreu entry, Race 9

R1

Dare to Breeze
Gerlin’s Empire
Amore Sofia

#4 DARE TO BREEZE (4/5): Could get the first Saturday card of the meet off to a very chalky start. She exits one of the best 2-year-old races we’ve seen all year, one that’s already produced the Schuylerville runner-up and a next-out maiden winner; #3 GERLIN’S EMPIRE (6-1): Debuts for Dallas Stewart and is bred to want more ground, but she’s been working well and attracts Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez. She’s got every right to be a runner, and it wouldn’t be too shocking if she shows talent here; #5 AMORE SOFIA (5-1): Goes against open company when she could be running against New York-breds, and that seems like a vote of confidence. Trainer Rudy Rodriguez’s first-time starters often need a race, but the last-out gate work indicates she could have potential.

R2

Mysterious Night
Carl Spackler
Talk of the Nation

#2 MYSTERIOUS NIGHT (8/5): Is one of several contenders in the Grade 3 Kelso that exit the Grade 3 Poker on the Belmont Stakes undercard. He had a strange trip that day and was the only runner to be gaining ground in the final strides. If he’s sharper second off the bench for world-class connections, look out; #5 CARL SPACKLER (2-1): May have bounced a bit in the Poker after a win in his 2024 debut at Churchill Downs. He’s won two graded stakes races over this turf course and has every right to bounce back here; #4 TALK OF THE NATION (2-1): Didn’t seem to have many excuses in the Poker, when he ran third after pressing a very moderate pace. He could sit a similar trip here against a shorter field; the question is, can he move forward off of what sure seemed like a dream setup last time out?

R3

Celestial Glaze
SOK entry
Poppy’s Pride

#4 CELESTIAL GLAZE (3-1): Broke through to end a long drought last time out, when he won a head-bob at Gulfstream to earn his first win since March of 2023. That day’s runner-up came right back to win, and when this barn gets horses going the right way, they can string wins together in bunches; SOK ENTRY (5/2): I prefer #1A TOP GUNNER, although the lack of a recent win is a big problem. Having said that, he’s been running against much tougher competition, and if the recent workouts are any indication, he’s thriving in upstate New York; #2 POPPY’S PRIDE (6-1): Is a consistent, hard-trying gelding who sure seems like the main speed in this event. He’s got enough zip to take advantage of the inside draw, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see Lane Luzzi attempt to steal this one on the front end.

R4

Illuminare
Uncorrelated
Classic Legacy

#2 ILLUMINARE (7/5): Did everything right in his debut, when he stalked and pounced at this route last month. I’m not quite sure what he beat that day, but he looked good doing it, and several of his recent workouts indicate he’s ready for his first try against winners; #1 UNCORRELATED (12-1): Ships up from Monmouth after a string of impressive works for Chad Brown, who has guided him through some issues during a layoff of more than 16 months. We haven’t seen him since last year’s Grade 3 Gotham, but his first-out win was fine and the likely price seems like an overlay; #3 CLASSIC LEGACY (5/2): Hasn’t won since December of 2022, and he’s burned plenty of money along the way. However, he does cut back from a mile to seven furlongs, his early-2024 races at similar routes were pretty strong, and he’d benefit from a pace meltdown.

R5

Certified Loverboy (MTO)
Brown entry
Hunt Ball

BROWN ENTRY (6/5): One of the most powerful barns on the circuit seems to be in a great spot here. #1 TRANSACTIONAL makes his comeback after a year and a half away, while #1A UNIT ECONOMICS earned a 91 Beyer Speed Figure in his maiden-breaking score last month; #4 HUNT BALL (8-1): Came from way, way back to be fourth here last month and has found a home as a one-run closer on the turf. There seems to be some speed signed on, and he should be going the right direction late at a bit of a price; #3 REBEL RED (5-1): Earned the diploma last time out in his second start off a long break. Jose Ortiz sees fit to ride back for Cherie DeVaux, whose barn is enjoying a banner year to this point.

R6

U Should B Dancing
Stolen Future
Strictly Taboo

#6 U SHOULD B DANCING (6-1): Gets a tepid top pick in a race where I truly don’t have a strong opinion. She makes her third start off the bench here, attracts Flavien Prat, and has shown an affinity for this route of ground. At her likely price, she’s an appealing value proposition; #7 STOLEN FUTURE (7/2): Is another making her third start off the bench, and she may appreciate the slight cutback in distance. Irad Ortiz, Jr., lands here when he may have had several options, and that might be a clue; #11 STRICTLY TABOO (6-1): Graduated last time out with a picture-perfect trip. She faces winners for the first time and doesn’t draw very well, but Rosario rides back and this isn’t the toughest first-level allowance we’ll see this summer.

R7

Tenacious Leader
Asleep At Eight
Tough Catch

#3 TENACIOUS LEADER (5/2): Debuts for Todd Pletcher and Irad Ortiz, Jr., which alone makes him worthy of some respect. Add in a work tab with several sparkling gate drills and a rock-solid pedigree (by Not This Time, out of a mare who’s kin to, among others, multiple graded stakes winner War Story), and there’s a lot to like; #5 ASLEEP AT EIGHT (8-1): Didn’t run poorly in his unveiling, when he settled for second at Churchill Downs last month. His pedigree indicates he’ll improve with experience, and he’s got an edge over most of this field in that department; #1 TOUGH CATCH (8-1): Gets a tricky inside draw for his debut, but he hammered for $280,000 despite a modest-looking pedigree and has been working well for Dallas Stewart. Luis Saez is one of the top gate riders in the country, and he may be able to get this first-time starter into a good spot despite the undesirable post.

R8

Commuted
Point Clear
Upstanding

#7 COMMUTED (5-1): Closed with a rush to be third in his debut for a barn whose first-time starters aren’t usually fully-cranked. This son of Gun Runner has every right to improve at second asking, and if that happens, he may be the one they have to hold off late; #2 POINT CLEAR (5-1): Salvaged second despite a rough start last month and is another that could take a step forward. Jose Ortiz got to know him that day, and several recent works hint that he’s been doing well; #3 UPSTANDING (4-1): Debuts for Pletcher and Irad and is bred in the purple. He fetched $400,000 at auction in 2022 and he’s got every right to be well-meant, but seven furlongs is a tough distance to debut at, and I think there’s a chance he needs this initial effort.

R9

Abreu entry
Irish Aces
Georgie W

ABREU ENTRY (10-1): The more I look at #1 TIDAL FORCES, the more I like him. He comes back to the turf, has plenty of tactical speed, and showed enough class to finish third in a stakes race at Gulfstream earlier this year. I think he could sit an ideal trip and get first run at a price; #8 IRISH ACES (2-1): Drops in class after finishing a competitive third in the Grade 3 Arlington at Churchill. He was much closer to the pace than he usually is on that occasion, and he may need to sit that kind of trip here in a race without a ton of true early zip; #7 GEORGIE W (8-1): Had every right to need his last-out effort, which came off of an 11-month break. He didn’t run terribly to be third that day, and a step forward second off the bench beneath Irad Ortiz, Jr., is certainly not out of the question.

R10

Didia
Chili Flag
Whitebeam

#4 DIDIA (7/2): Is one of the easiest horses to root for that you’ll ever find. She’s 11-for-17, won the Grade 1 New York last time out, and always seems to fire a big shot. In a race with many milers stretching out, this one has shown an affinity for this nine-furlong trip, and that could be enough to win a fantastic renewal of the Grade 1 Diana; #10 CHILI FLAG (9/2): Has won three in a row, and four of her last five dating back to November. One of those victories was in the Grade 1 Just A Game here last month, and if there’s any sort of a battle up front, this one should be a main beneficiary; #6 WHITEBEAM (4-1): Won this race last year, when she ran down fellow Chad Brown trainee In Italian. She hasn’t won since, but she was a good second in the Just A Game, and her tactical speed should be a big plus.

R11

Studlydoright
Mentee
Mr. Squeaky Wheels

#6 STUDLYDORIGHT (7/2): Came from far, far back to upset the field in the Tremont last month and figures to be rolling late again in the Grade 3 Sanford. It’s tough for most 2-year-olds to make up so much ground, but this one’s shown he can do it, and I think he’s an exciting prospect; #1 MENTEE (6/5): Looked home free in mid-stretch last time out, but he wound up barely holding off that day’s runner-up after leading by five in mid-stretch. Maybe it was inexperience, or perhaps it was overconfidence by a rider who usually doesn’t make those mistakes. Improvement would make him the one to beat, but the rail draw doesn’t help, and at his likely price, I’ll try to beat him; #2 MR. SQUEAKY WHEELS (15-1): Debuted with a sharp score over the synthetic surface at Presque Isle and ships in for a solid barn. Jose Ortiz has been enlisted to ride, and if he likes dirt as much as he relishes that synthetic surface, I think he’s got a shot at a very square price.

R12

Upside Potential (MTO)
Dr Oseran
Final Verdict

#2 DR OSERAN (7/2): Ran a sneaky-good race two back at Pimlico over a turf course that was nowhere close to “good.” I’m treating the last-out dud as a bounce, and it’s encouraging that Joel Rosario gets back in the saddle for Christophe Clement in the Saturday finale; #1 FINAL VERDICT (6-1): Finished first at odds of 70-1 last time out before being disqualified due to interference. You won’t get anywhere near that price in this spot, but I do think he’s live, and I imagine he’ll be prominent early beneath new jockey Tyler Gaffalione; #5 HEYMACKIT’SJACK (8-1): Came back running in his first start since May, when he was a competitive third downstate. He made up some ground that day, which isn’t something he’d shown much of an affinity for prior to his long layoff. A logical step forward would give him a chance at a bit of a price.

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $978

Much was made about Saratoga no longer accepting cash for food and drink purchases ahead of the track’s opening Thursday. If you’re on horse racing Twitter, chances are you saw a whole bunch of complaining about it.

I’m going to middle this, which is undoubtedly going to be met with some people saying I’m killing horse racing and others saying I’m lobbying for a job with NYRA. No, a no-cash experience isn’t ideal, and betting with cash without being able to use your winnings on a sandwich 50 feet away isn’t ideal. Having said that, I saw an actual argument saying that refusing to accept cash is an assault on American freedom, which…no. Just no.

I wish NYRA didn’t make that decision. However, it’s not like that’s going to significantly dampen the on-track experience, either.

THURSDAY’S RESULTS: This section started not with a bang, but a whimper. Neither key exacta horse was anywhere close in the lid-lifter, and I dropped $22.

FRIDAY’S PLAY: Most of the card seems chalky, but I love the seventh, which seems like a true “grass grab bag.” I’ll play $2 exactas keying #7 MAURITIUS and #9 HEATHGUARD on top of those two, #11 OUR COUNTRY, and #12 FRONT MAN, and I’ll use all four in an additional $1 box.

TOTAL WAGERED: $24.

Today’s multi-race analysis focuses on the Grand Slam. You can get my betting strategies for one multi-race sequence each day for just $5 over at Winners and Whiners. If you want concentrated thoughts on one particular sequence, this is where you’ll find them!

Winners and Whiners is your home for the best sportsbook bonuses on the market. Check out expert handicapping picks for all major sports, including baseball, basketball, hockey, and football!

SELECTIONS/ANALYSIS

Thursday: 1-for-11
Meet: 1-for-11

Best Bet: Star of Mystery, Race 9
Longshot: Heathguard, Race 7

R1

Chanteuse
Martingale
Reliable Lady

#2 CHANTEUSE (6/5): Set the early pace in her debut, where she ultimately faded to finish fifth behind a talented stablemate. Seven furlongs is a tricky distance to debut at, and I’m expecting a step forward at second asking for powerhouse connections; #5 MARTINGAME (9/2): May have needed her last-out effort, which was her first outing in nearly five months. Chad Brown shipping horses in from Monmouth used to be a red flag, but he’s won with many horses that fit this profile in the past few years; #3 RELIABLE LADY (7/2): Comes back to the dirt after trying turf for the first time. She’s run fairly well on dirt in the past, and she could move forward if she overcomes the gate issues that have arisen in all three prior outings.

R2

Stormquist
Paschal Moon
Giant’s Fire

#5 STORMQUIST (5/2): Cuts back to a sprint and drops down in class after several starts against optional claiming foes. This restricted claiming event looks much weaker, and anything close to her two or three-back tries would make him tough to beat; #3 PASCHAL MOON (4-1): Responded to the drop in class last time out with a solid second downstate. He was claimed out of that race by a barn that doesn’t claim many runners, and it’s fair to assume this one has found his friends; #4 GIANT’S FIRE (4-1): Hasn’t won in quite a while but exits several fast heats against higher-level competition. His lone win came at this 6 1/2-furlong distance, and he could sit an ideal stalking trip.

R3

Military Road (MTO)
Repole entry
Tom Collins

REPOLE ENTRY (6/5): Either runner could win this. #1 STEADFAST RESOLVE goes second off the bench after making a middle move last time out, while #1A STORM READY has improved in all three starts to date and has posted several very strong speed figures; #5 TOM COLLINS (5-1): Hasn’t run for nine months, but gets Lasix for his 3-year-old debut and has plenty of back form. One of his 2023 efforts was a close-up third behind the classy Agate Road, and he’s a contender if he’s ready to fire off the bench; #4 PASSIVE MANAGEMENT (3-1): Debuts for Chad Brown and boasts a world-class turf pedigree. He’s by Dubawi and out of a Galileo mare, so he’s got every right to be a runner. The question is, should we read anything into a lack of works beyond four furlongs?

R4

What’s Up Bro (MTO)
Twenty Six Black
Yarrow

#4 TWENTY SIX BLACK (3-1): Is one of several horses coming in off of a race here last month. He was second that day despite a wide trip, and he’s yet to run a bad race with Lasix. He’ll run with it again here, and that makes him a formidable foe; #6 YARROW (3-1): Has never finished worse than third in five local starts, including a close-up third last time out. This is his third start off the bench, and soon-to-be Hall of Famer Joel Rosario sees fit to ride back for Christophe Clement; #7 TUNISIAN SPRING (2-1): Had some traffic trouble last time out and may appreciate the outside draw in this event. His late-2023 form is very strong, and he’ll have a chance if he can channel it.

R5

Saffa’s Day
Funny Joke
Cold as Hell

#9 SAFFA’S DAY (5/2): Takes a significant class drop that’s simply too hard to ignore. He was claimed for $80,000 two starts ago, runs for a quarter of that tag here, and could be in a prime position given his tactical speed; #5 FUNNY JOKE (8-1): Made her first start in more than a year last month and didn’t disgrace himself. He set a fast pace in the slop before fading, and he should be much more sharp in his second start back; #8 COLD AS HELL (12-1): Merits a look underneath at a price given his back class. He’s spent this season going up against allowance foes, and his last start for a tag in late-2023 saw him run a strong second for three times the price he’s in for today.

R6

Classic Time
Reteko
King’s Leap

#10 CLASSIC TIME (5/2): Just missed in an open maiden race last time out, one where he didn’t break well and still nearly found a way to win. He draws well in his second start, which is a restricted event that sure looks like a less-imposing spot; #2 RETEKO (9/2): Debuts after a strong series of downstate drills, and while this barn’s horses sometimes need a race to get going, there’s plenty to like. That last drill was the third-fastest of 109 at the distance, and first-call rider Javier Castellano has the call; #6 KING’S LEAP (10-1): Comes in from Finger Lakes for a barn who knows how to ride down the Thruway and get the money. This one sports a few bullet drills ahead of his unveiling, and while the pedigree says he may want more ground, the presence of Finger Lakes-based jockey Luis Perez may be a clue he’s ready to run right away.

R7

Gun Maestro (MTO)
Heathguard
Mauritius

#9 HEATHGUARD (15-1): Has shown enough for me to break a long streak of chalk or near-chalk on top. He ran well when fourth last time out and goes second off a short break in a spot that sure seems to set up for a closer like him to come pick up the pieces; #7 MAURITIUS (4-1): Broke a long drought with a wire-to-wire score last time out against restricted claiming company. That stretch, though, featured several agonizing near-misses, and when this barn gets horses on the right track, they tend to stay in good form; #11 OUR COUNTRY (8-1): Hasn’t run in nine months but is a contender if he’s ready to run. He was last seen rallying to win a two-turn turf route at Aqueduct, and that day’s rider, Joel Rosario, sees fit to saddle up in this wide-open event.

R8

Miss Justify
Bells Beach
Striker Has Dial

#1 MISS JUSTIFY (3-1): Gets the benefit of an inside draw in the Wilton, which is contested out of the one-mile Wilson chute. Inside speed usually does very well at this route, and if her last-out score is any indication, she’ll be prominent from the jump beneath top jockey Flavien Prat; #6 BELLS BEACH (5/2): Takes a big step up in class, but that’s not surprising given the ease with which she graduated out of the maiden ranks last month. She cruised home by nearly six lengths at Churchill Downs in a race that came at this distance, and a repeat effort would give her a big chance; #4 STRIKER HAS DIAL (3-1): Splashed home to win at first asking before running into Ways and Means here last month. She did, however, run a credible second and beat the third-place finisher by more than six lengths, and experience at this quirky route could prove valuable.

R9

Star of Mystery
Pipsy
Baraye

#10 STAR OF MYSTERY (9/5): Takes a significant drop in class, which is a bit weird considering the Coronation Cup is a $150,000 stakes race. However, she most recently ran third behind the freakish Cogburn in the Grade 1 Jaipur after a near-miss in the Group 1 Al Quoz Sprint in Dubai. Simply put, if she’s right, the race is for second; #4 PIPSY (6-1): Almost certainly bounced last time out in the Tepin, which was probably a bit longer than she wanted to go. Her two-back win in the Grade 3 Soaring Softly was excellent, and the presence of all-world jockey Frankie Dettori cannot be ignored; #8 BARAYE (10-1): Has run two smashing races in Kentucky ahead of a return to stakes action. Most recently, she topped an overmatched field by nearly six lengths in an off-the-turf event, and she certainly figures to be prominent from the jump here.

R10

Adventurous Spirit
Over and Ollie
Guile

#8 ADVENTUROUS SPIRIT (5/2): Drops in for a tag for the first time in the Friday finale and merits plenty of respect. This one has been competitive against maiden special weight foes, but the aggressive connections have no problem going down the class ladder, and this seems like a logical, tough-to-beat favorite; #7 OVER AND OLLIE (6-1): Also runs for a tag for the first time, and does so in his second start off the bench. He has back form going long on the turf, and I’m expecting a return to that sort of level here after a dud last time out at Churchill; #11 GUILE (12-1): Doesn’t draw well here, but this is one that has every right to love the turf. He’s by Blame and out of a Distorted Humor mare, and he’s shown this sort of distance is well within his scope.

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,000

It’s only been a month since I was last here, but a lot has happened since then. The summer meet at the Alameda County Fair has come and gone, and I’ve also been fortunate to do a bunch of great stuff with the Hong Kong Jockey Club’s new North American simulcast feed. If you’re up late Saturday or early Sunday, check out closing day at Sha Tin.

Also, I’m officially entering the “tout” world at Winners and Whiners, the site I’ve been working on since coming to Raketech in November. During the Saratoga meet, I’ll have betting strategies for one multi-race bet each day, at $5 per day. Today, it’s a midday double, largely because both races are on dirt and should (I hope…) go with close to the fields we see in the program despite an ominous weather forecast.

If you’re new to this section: Every day, I’ll have bets on Saratoga action, complete with a mythical $1,000 bankroll to draw from. I’ll also have this space to expound on a few things. Let’s get to Opening Day!

THURSDAY’S PLAY: I’m diving right in with action on the opener. I’ll play $3 exactas using #2 BOLD VICTORY (my longshot of the day) and #5 I AM THE LAW on top of those two, #6 ACCIDENTAL HERO, and #8 ROCCO STRONG. I’ll also box my top two horses (Bold Victory and I Am the Law) in an additional $2 bet, too.

TOTAL WAGERED: $22.

Winners and Whiners is your home for the best sportsbook bonuses on the market. Check out expert handicapping picks for all major sports, including baseball, basketball, hockey, and football!

SELECTIONS/ANALYSIS

Best Bet: All That Magic, Race 4
Longshot: Bold Victory, Race 1

R1

I Am the Law
Bold Victory
Rocco Strong

#5 I AM THE LAW (3-1): Has been running against far, far tougher competition for most of his career and drops way down the class ladder for the summer lid-lifter. Add in that he’s hit the board in nine of 10 starts over wet tracks (with two wins), and he looks like a very legitimate favorite; #2 BOLD VICTORY (20-1): Stretches back out to two turns, which is clearly his preferred route of ground, and should have plenty of speed to run at. There’s a possibility his best days are behind him, but a return to his desired trip, a favorable race shape, and a big price all mean I need to use him; #8 ROCCO STRONG (4-1): Is another with plenty of back class and an affinity for wet tracks. He won very impressively in the mud earlier this year at Aqueduct and has faced stakes or stakes-quality opposition in each of his last four outings.

R2

Amanda’s Folly (MTO)
Aspen Grove
Madaket entry

#4 ASPEN GROVE (7/5): Looms very large in the unlikely event this stays on the turf. Draw a line through her dud in the Grade 1 New York last time out, and her career looks far, far better. If we’re still on the grass, this daughter of Justify is strictly the one to beat; MADAKET ENTRY (7/2): I prefer #1A AVENUE NIEL, who raced well three times last year before going to the sidelines. Her September 2023 allowance score was a good effort, and Joel Rosario sees fit to ride for Christophe Clement; #3 BE YOUR BEST (3-1): Looked like a budding star in 2022, when she won two races here as a 2-year-old (including the P.G. Johnson Stakes). She hasn’t won since, but she drops into the allowance/optional claiming ranks for the first time and could conceivably wake up.

R3

Miss Maximus
Needed
Neigh Jude

#4 MISS MAXIMUS (4-1): Has shown early speed against much better horses and takes a significant drop in class. After her last two outings against straight maidens, she now runs for a tag against state-breds, and I think there’s a chance she gets very comfortable from the jump; #10 NEEDED (5-1): Makes her first start for Linda Rice in this spot, which doubles as her first outing since January. The best race of her career to date was a close-up second in the mud late last year, and she’s a contender if she’s ready to go; #3 NEIGH JUDE (7/2): Finished a distant second downstate last time out and has a history of gate trouble. Irad Ortiz, Jr., rides back for Kelly Breen, and perhaps there’s room for improvement in what will be just her fifth lifetime start.

R4

All That Magic
Bustin Bay (MTO)
Madaket entry

#8 ALL THAT MAGIC (8-1): Gets Lasix for the first time in three starts this year, and I’m expecting that to make a major difference. All but one of her six career victories have come with Lasix, and she attracts Luis Saez in her third start off the bench; MADAKET ENTRY (5-1): I prefer #1A LADY MIA, a filly that showed she can run on soft turf in some of her overseas starts. She’s run just once since October, but that was a solid, winning effort in an allowance at Aqueduct; #4 RUN FOR THE HILLS (2-1): Is another getting Lasix back after a few tries against stakes foes. One of those efforts was a close-up third over yielding going at Churchill Downs, and she’s a contender if they stay on the lawn and a speed duel ensues.

R5

New York Scrappy
Concorde Spirit
Brown Eyed Cat

#1 NEW YORK SCRAPPY (3-1): Had an eventful trip in his debut, when he ran third despite several instances of trouble. Flavien Prat sees fit to ride back, and this one goes turf-to-dirt and adds blinkers for a trainer whose runners tend to improve at second asking; #9 CONCORDE SPIRIT (6-1): Was a one-paced third in his unveiling and is another that has a right to take a step forward. This regally-bred son of Uncle Mo is trained by Bill Mott and has several strong workouts on his tab ahead of this event; #7 BROWN EYED CAT (9/2): Is one of two first-time starters trained by Bruce Levine, and he’s got a solid pedigree and back-to-back bullet drills. Add in the presence of jockey Javier Castellano and top off-track influence Stormy Atlantic on the dam’s side, and you’ve got an intriguing horse.

R6

Will Not Be Swayed
Strong State
My Lady Bae

#2 WILL NOT BE SWAYED (7/2): Debuts in the first 2-year-old race of the meet and sports several strong gate works at Keeneland for one of the highest-percentage barns in the country. Prat will be aboard, which is another reason to think this daughter of Preakness winner War of Will could be a runner; #1 STRONG STATE (5/2): Had plenty of trouble in her debut last month, where she blew the break but still rallied to finish second. She could certainly improve, but the inside draw is a concern and the pedigree indicates she may want even more distance; #7 MY LADY BAE (12-1): Merits a look at a price given her strong win-early pedigree. Her dam was a stakes-winning sprinter, her second dam won at first asking, and this one has been working consistently for Rob Atras, who boasts a strong 20% win rate with first-time starters.

R7

Speightful Lily (MTO)
Mosienko (MTO)
Solib

#3 SOLIB (4-1): Came from way, way back to be second last time out at a bit of a price. I do think she’s a bit better on dirt (which could come in handy here), but she’s also shown an ability to sprint on turf, and her turf record looks far better if you toss her two route tries here last summer; #7 MARCO T. (3-1): Cleared her first-level allowance condition last time out and has won two of her last three starts. The lone loss came in the Grade 3 Soaring Softly against much better horses, and this is probably the right level; #1 IM JUST KIDDIN (5/2): Is another that probably wants no part of two turns. She’s probably had some issues given just one start since September, but she’s a contender if she’s ready to run (and if this stays on turf).

R8

Just Music (MTO)
Crushed Ice (MTO)
Elle Est Forte

#9 ELLE EST FORTE (7/2): Has run several big races for trainer Ray Handal since being claimed here last summer. Most recently, she was a good second downstate, and if this stays on turf, she gets a tepid top selection; #4 LAKESIDE GETAWAY (5-1): Sure looks like the main speed, which is always dangerous on the inner turf. She goes second off the bench here, and the runner-up from her last race came back to win at next asking; #8 MORE MANGO (15-1): Ran a big one to be second against starter allowance foes last time out, when she was 48-1 and led in deep-stretch. She’s run fairly well in a few different turf races, though, so if this stays on, she’s not without a shot.

R9

Blazing Sevens
Classic Catch
Rocket Can

#7 BLAZING SEVENS (7/2): Found the Grade 1 Met Mile way too tough, and while this is a classy optional claimer, the waters are much more shallow here. He gets Lasix back in this spot, and he won the Grade 1 Champagne earlier in his career over the type of off track he may see here; #9 CLASSIC CATCH (6-1): Is a grinder in a race with plenty of early speed, and the race shape may work to his benefit. His last-out effort at Churchill was a heartbreaking second, and he doesn’t have to move forward much (if at all) to be a major player; #6 ROCKET CAN (9/2): Won last year’s Grade 3 Holy Bull and went on to run ninth in the Kentucky Derby. We’ve only seen him once since, but that was a professional score at Oaklawn Park, and he’s another possible beneficiary of the likely frontrunner-heavy race shape.

R10

Viggiedal
Long Neck Paula
Carmen’s Candy Jar

#10 VIGGIEDAL (9/2): Never looked like a loser in her debut, where this $350,000 auction purchase went wire-to-wire and romped by five lengths. She draws well in the Schuylerville Stakes and could give trainer Steve Asmussen his fourth win in this event; #9 LONG NECK PAULA (8-1): Was the likely favorite in the Astoria last month but scratched due to a bizarre set of circumstances. She’s back, has worked well ahead of this race, and her absence from the previous race may, bizarrely, mean a bigger price here; #6 CARMEN’S CANDY JAR (6-1): Showed some grit in her unveiling, when she prevailed downstate for powerhouse connections. The pedigree says the stretchout in distance absolutely won’t be a problem, and it’s notable when you see a first-time starter pass other horses late.

R11

Houlton (MTO)
Kick a Buck
Vincita

#9 KICK A BUCK (9/5): Is strictly the one to beat if the Thursday finale stays on the turf. He’s been running against straight maidens to this point in his career, and while his last-out dud is concerning, anything close to his two or three-back efforts likely puts him in the winner’s circle; #3 VINCITA (12-1): Tries turf for the first time here and is bred to love it. The connections have tried to run him on the grass multiple times, and that’s often a clue. Add in that he’s not facing any world-beaters, and the 12-1 price looks enticing; #2 GET IT TO MATTHEW (20-1): Is another trying turf for the first time, and while I’m not sure he wants two turns, the pedigree is all-grass. This one is by Mendelssohn and out of a Tapit mare, and he could be sitting on a move forward second off the bench.

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $243

As we finish out an incredible week of racing at Saratoga, here’s a reminder: Enjoy things like this. Not every track is celebrating right now.

Golden Gate Fields, about a 20-minute drive from my home in Northern California, runs its last card today. For multiple reasons, this did not need to happen. However, a venue that once welcomed legends like Noor and Citation, plus more contemporary stars like Lost in the Fog, Shared Belief, and Rombauer, is set to close up shop as 1/ST Racing further consolidates its business to Gulfstream and Santa Anita.

If you want to read more about the consequences of this move, Dan Ross and Steve Anderson wrote fantastic articles for the TDN and Daily Racing Form, respectively. For now, one last word before I reconnect with you in July: If racing fails in California, it can fail anywhere. Support what the Northern California fairs are doing, this summer and beyond, and help us protect a circuit that deserves far, far better than it’s getting.

SATURDAY’S RESULTS: After a lot of second-place finishes by top picks in the pick box, Measured Time saved the day. My $36 Grand Slam ticket connected for $125.60, and a $14 win bet returned $57.40.

SUNDAY’S PLAY: I’ve got two plays for this section before we close up shop for a month. First, I’ll punch a cold $20 double starting in the third with #1 ANTONIO OF VENICE and finishing with #6 SPEIGHTFUL LILY in the fourth. Next, we’ll go to the seventh, where I’ll have a $20 win bet on #10 ROZAY SUMMER.

TOTAL WAGERED: $40.

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SELECTIONS/ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Rozay Summer, Race 7
Longshot: Sunday Girl, Race 11

R1

Awakened
Freddy Flintshire
Abaan

#4 AWAKENED (9/2): Comes back to Saratoga, the site of his greatest triumph. He won last year’s Grade 1 Jonathan Sheppard at this route, and unlike many in here, he’s shown he doesn’t need Lasix in order to run well; #6 FREDDY FLINTSHIRE (7/2): Makes his first start in 11 months but has shown an affinity for this course. Trainer Keri Brion is one of the top conditioners on the jump circuit, and this one will do his best running late; #5 ABAAN (5/2): Switched to the steeplechase ranks last summer and has reeled off four wins in a row working his way up the class ladder. This is another step up, and the lack of Lasix is a concern, but perhaps he’s a star on the rise.

R2

Dubb entry
Emerald Forest
Kneedeepinsnow

DUBB ENTRY (5/2): I prefer #1A EXCELLENT TIMING, who chased much better horses in a stakes race last time out and drops way down the class ladder for aggressive connections. He seems like the controlling speed, and I think he’s a wire-to-wire threat; #2 EMERALD FOREST (5-1): Is another class-dropper, and in this case, he’s coming back to what’s probably the right level. His last two have come against tough optional claiming foes, but his last three races against straight claimers have been very good and Javier Castellano sees fit to ride back; #7 KNEEDEEPINSNOW (3-1): Was once one of the better sprinters in the country and ran second in the 2022 Vanderbilt behind Jackie’s Warrior. However, he hasn’t won in nearly two years, and while his rest race crushes these, the presence of just one workout since his last start in mid-April is a bit of a red flag.

R3

Antonio of Venice
Elysian Meadows
Doc Sullivan

#1 ANTONIO OF VENICE (6/5): Sure seems like the controlling speed in the Mike Lee and comes in off of two impressive victories at this level downstate. When this barn gets horses on the right track, they tend to stay there, and assuming things stay dry, I think he’ll be tough to beat; #3 ELYSIAN MEADOWS (6-1): Has run against open stakes company in his last three starts and gets a bit of class relief. He also cuts back to one turn, which is probably his best game, and he’d benefit if someone keeps my top pick honest early on; #4 DOC SULLIVAN (5/2): Comes in off a win at Aqueduct and chased my top pick two back at this level. Castellano rides back off the last-out score, and perhaps he’s improving with experience, but he seems like a better horse with Lasix, and that makes his likely price a bit tough to swallow.

R4

Speightful Lily
Scoring Chance
Mysaria

#6 SPEIGHTFUL LILY (1-1): Was very impressive first time out and didn’t run badly in her first try against winners. She’s been training well since shipping up to Saratoga, and I don’t think she runs up against any world-beaters in this spot; #8 SCORING CHANCE (8-1): Cuts back to seven furlongs, a distance she showed a fondness for in her first-out score at Aqueduct. I think you can make some excuses for each of her last two tries, and Flavien Prat hopping aboard is a big plus; #9 MYSARIA (20-1): Exits a failed turf experiment that may drive her price up considerably. Her dirt races downstate haven’t been terrible, and a repeat of either the two-back or three-back efforts would give her a shot to hit the board at a big number.

R5

Dancinginthepark
Az U Chase Me
Malibu Margarita

#7 DANCINGINTHEPARK (8-1): Gets a reluctant nod in a race where I truly don’t love any runner. Unlike many in here that have had lots of chances, this one is a first-time starter. He’s got some bottom-side turf pedigree, and the presence of John Velazquez may be a clue; #5 AZ U CHASE ME (9/2): Comes back to the NY-bred ranks, where he ran some of his best races late last year. His expedition to Florida didn’t go well, but this sure seems like the right level and he’s shown he can pass others late; #2 MALIBU MARGARITA (10-1): Tried to get on turf last time out, but the race was moved to the main track. He’s a son of Malibu Moon and a Frost Giant mare, so there’s reason to think he’ll like the grass, and Prat riding back is a positive.

R6

Drake’s Passage
Dr Ardito
Sheriff Bianco

#2 DRAKE’S PASSAGE (7/5): Goes second off the bench in the Commentator and should sit an ideal trip. There isn’t much early speed in here at all, and that means the winner of last year’s Albany at this route could get very comfortable in the opening stages; #3 DR ARDITO (5-1): Comes back to the NY-bred ranks after a dud in the Grade 3 Westchester against much better horses. He won last year’s Evan Shipman out of the chute, and I’d like him a lot more if there was more early zip in this field; #1 SHERIFF BIANCO (6-1): Hasn’t won in a long, long time, but has hit the board in 25 of 30 lifetime starts and probably needed his last start (which was shorter than his preferred trip). He was second in last year’s Empire Classic at this distance, and his usual effort could get him a big piece of this.

R7

Rozay Summer
Rainingatthebeach
Tour Jete

#10 ROZAY SUMMER (4-1): Debuted with a fourth-place finish at Tampa Bay Downs and takes a big drop in class at second asking for Christophe Clement. She goes from an open maiden special weight event to a state-bred maiden claimer, and if she’s ready to run off a three-month break, she’s strictly the one to beat; #8 RAININGATTHEBEACH (10-1): Responded to a drop in class when second in an off-the-turf event last month. She’s had some gate issues, but the blinkers go on, Prat stays on, and perhaps she’ll move forward if this stays on the lawn; #6 TOUR JETE (6-1): Ran well to be second in her debut, then lost all chance at the break in a $500,000 stakes race. She hasn’t been seen since and comes back in a maiden claimer, which is puzzling, but the turf pedigree is certainly there, Irad Ortiz, Jr., has been attracted to ride, and she’s got every chance if she’s ready to run.

R8

Fingal’s Cave
Bustin Bay
Venti Valentine

#8 FINGAL’S CAVE (2-1): Gets two things she’ll appreciate in the Critical Eye: Class relief and two turns. She’s been running against graded stakes competition going shorter downstate and is 2-for-2 at this route. Add in a recent five-furlong bullet drill, and I think she’s a formidable favorite; #9 BUSTIN BAY (4-1): Likes the Spa and is an easy horse to root for given her consistency and longevity. She’s won 13 of 43 starts, banked more than $740,000 in career earnings, and has plenty of tactical speed. I’m not sure two turns is quite what she wants, but she does have a win at this distance; #2 VENTI VALENTINE (3-1): Hasn’t won since October, but ran second in the Serena’s Song at Monmouth against open company and won a stakes race here last summer. This is another that seems to run pretty much the same race every time out, and that sort of effort gives her a chance in here.

R9

The Paddock Pastor
Miracle Mike
Slapintheface

#2 THE PADDOCK PASTOR (6-1): Almost certainly needed his last-out effort, given that it was his first start since November. He should get much more pace to chase in this spot, and Irad rides back when he likely had several options in this wide-open allowance event; #3 MIRACLE MIKE (10-1): Got his nose down last time out and looks much better if you simply toss all the dirt races. He’ll benefit from the likely race shape, and he’s another that should be heard from in the late stages; #5 SLAPINTHEFACE (8-1): Hasn’t run since November, but turned in several sharp efforts in 2023 and has enough tactical speed to sit a stalking trip. That could give him first run going into the far turn, and that would make him the one to catch.

R10

Tough Street (MTO)
Silver Skillet
Overacting

#1 SILVER SKILLET (2-1): Won here twice a year ago and gets reunited with Joel Rosario, who piloted her to both of those victories. I can excuse her 2024 debut easily enough, as that was her first race since a competitive fourth in the Grade 3 Pebbles; #8 OVERACTING (9/2): Has yet to run a bad race in four lifetime starts and goes second off the bench for Chad Brown, who excels with similar stock. Her 2024 debut downstate was a winning one, and a step forward from that would give her a big chance; #5 MARVELOUS MAUDE (5/2): Was a distant third against open company last time out and returns to NY-bred competition here. She’ll take plenty of money, and she does have a win over this turf course, but I can’t help thinking she’s just a bit better downstate.

R11

Sunday Girl
Caldwell Luvs Gold
La Banquera

#4 SUNDAY GIRL (8-1): Is a perfect 2-for-2 to this point and has yet to be seriously challenged. The third-place finisher from her last-out score in an April stakes race came back to win, and I think this one presents some real value at or near the morning line price; #3 CALDWELL LUVS GOLD (6-1): Started her career with two wins at the Spa last summer, and I’m drawing a line straight through the last-out turf experiment. She’s a dirt horse, and she’ll likely get plenty of pace to chase over her favorite track; #5 LA BANQUERA (4-1): Dueled throughout in a swiftly-run first-out score and takes a significant class jump here. However, I like seeing a horse show heart on debut, and she figures to once again be prominent early.

R12

Spirit of St Louis
City Man
Conman

#1 SPIRIT OF ST LOUIS (8/5): Has been managed very well by his connections en route to six wins and two seconds in eight tries. He comes in on a three-race win streak, including one against open company, and he’s a logical favorite in the race named for this handicapper’s old stomping grounds, the Kingston; #9 CITY MAN (5/2): Hasn’t been since in almost eight months, but he’s shown he can run well fresh and that he loves this turf course. He’s a multiple graded stakes winner with Christophe Clement and Joel Rosario in his corner, and he merits respect; #7 CONMAN (30-1): Is a contender to blow up the exotics at a big price. He almost certainly needed the last-out try at Aqueduct and won an open stakes race at Woodbine last summer. John Velazquez rides for Mark Casse, and if you’re looking for a longshot to throw into exactas and trifectas, I think this is the one you want.