BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $160

I host a podcast with my good friend Josh Rodriguez over on the “On the Wrong Lead” network. It’s called “Drank’n Champagne,” and this week, we took a look at Friday’s late Pick Four sequence.

I gave out a pretty cheap play there, and if you’re looking for extensive analysis of that sequence, you can get it by watching on YouTube or listening wherever you get your podcasts.

THURSDAY’S RESULTS: Romantic Charmer was rank throughout in the eighth. I dropped $40.

FRIDAY’S PLAY: My late Pick Four starts a bit later than I’d like for the purposes of this section, and I want to make sure my editors don’t miss print deadlines before Saturday’s card. As such, I’ll focus on the eighth race and my best bet of the day. That’s #6 EL CAPI, who hits me as a potential monster. I’ll have a $30 win bet on that one, and I’ll also use him to finish off a cold $20 double starting in the seventh with #4 MUNNYS GOLD.

TOTAL WAGERED: $50.

Winners and Whiners is your home for the best sports betting promos on the market. Check out expert handicapping picks for all major sports, including baseball, basketball, hockey, and football!

SELECTIONS/ANALYSIS

Best Bet: El Capi, Race 8
Longshot: Addicted to You, Race 3

R1

Rolling Along
Trulli Warrior
Pentathlon

#8 ROLLING ALONG (6-1): Has experience, unlike many other top contenders here, and exits a swiftly-run race at this distance over Woodbine’s synthetic surface. This barn excels with second-time starters, and this one adds both Lasix and blinkers in the Friday lid-lifter; #1 TRULLI WARRIOR (7/2): Is one of two first-time starters trained by Todd Pletcher, and this one’s bred to be a runner. This son of Curlin has a very strong bottom-side pedigree, too, and several of his recent works indicate he’s got plenty of talent; #3 PENTATHLON (12-1): Hasn’t run since October but caught two very tough fields before going to the sidelines. He improved considerably at second asking, is working consistently for Shug McGaughey, and could be a contender at a price if he’s ready to run.

R2

Arthur’s Ride
Leading Contender
Tapit Shoes

#1 ARTHUR’S RIDE (3-1): Comes in off of an absolute clunker that was too bad to be true. Maybe he bounced off of a fantastic two-back effort, maybe he just hated the slop, but either way, I think he comes back to form stretching out to a distance he’s bred to relish; #5 LEADING CONTENDER (5/2): Gets a big rider switch to Flavien Prat and generally fires the same shot every time out. That’s been enough to get him seven top-two finishes in nine career starts, but only two of those races are wins, and he’s burned a lot of money over the course of his career; #9 TAPIT SHOES (8-1): Came off the bench to top first-level allowance foes at Churchill in his first start since August. He’s listed as a first-time gelding in this spot, and this son of Tapit is another that’s bred to enjoy this 10-furlong trip.

R3

Storming Chrome (MTO)
Liar’s Poker
Addicted to You

#14 LIAR’S POKER (7/2): Needs two scratches to draw in but is a major player if he does. His lone misfire to date came in a stakes race against much tougher horses, and I think he’ll be fit to fire a big shot in his second start off a long break; #5 ADDICTED TO YOU (8-1): Is one of several exiting the same race on May 4th, and I think he ran very well to be third that day. There was no early speed in there, yet he came flying late to be beaten less than a length in his first start since November. There seems to be more speed signed on here, which should help him; #8 LORD FLINTSHIRE (6-1): Has a troubling aversion to winning and is just 1-for-23 in his career. However, he’s run second eight times, goes second off the bench for a strong barn, and ran well here twice a season ago against similar stock.

R4

Notah
Debate
Lucency

#4 NOTAH (9/2): Hasn’t run a bad race in any of his last five tries, and he’s never missed the board in four starts at this seven-furlong distance. The rider switch to Irad Ortiz, Jr., is a big one, and I think he could sit an ideal stalking trip; #8 DEBATE (3-1): Cuts back to one turn after a failed two-turn experiment last month. His two and three-back efforts going a mile at Aqueduct were fine, and a return to form makes him a major player; #9 LUCENCY (7/2): Just missed in a similar spot downstate and has every right to contend in this one. This is his second start since being claimed by a low-percentage outfit, though, so while his best race could win this, it’s fair to wonder if a regression is in the cards.

R5

Cees Get Degrees (MTO)
Boat’s a Rockin
Mischievous Angel

#5 BOAT’S A ROCKIN (8-1): Exits a much tougher spot on the Preakness undercard where he set the pace over a boggy turf course in his first start since November. He gets Lasix back for this one, and while I don’t think we’ll quite get the 8-1 morning line price, the last-out clunker may inflate his odds just a bit; #10 MISCHIEVOUS ANGEL (4-1): Came back running off the bench to top first-level allowance foes in his first run since August. Prat sees fit to ride back, and his lone loss to date came in a Grade 2 here last year, one won by the classy Carl Spackler; #3 CLEAR THE AIR (7/2): Ran second behind the ageless Bound for Nowhere last time out, and his two-back score in a turf sprint at Keeneland was sharp. This turned out to be a very tough spot for the level, but a repeat of that April 21 effort would put him right there.

R6

Top Conor (MTO)
Spirit Prince
Time Song

#6 SPIRIT PRINCE (7/2): Has a significant back class edge over most of these and will be a formidable foe if he’s ready off the bench. All but one of his five starts last year came against stakes foes, and he won one of those races (the Central Park at Aqueduct); #4 TIME SONG (12-1): Faltered as an 8/5 favorite in a stakes race at Gulfstream but gets some class relief in this spot. He also gets Lasix back, and his lone race with Lasix is by far his best effort; #9 ARMY OFFICER (9/2): Has taken steps forward in each career start and exits a strong second at Churchill last month. He’s got some tactical speed and attracts Frankie Dettori, who doesn’t ride for this barn that much.

R7

Munnys Gold
Sam’s Treasure
Roswell

#4 MUNNYS GOLD (6/5): Is probably the most likely winner on the Friday card. We haven’t seen her since a third-place finish in the Grade 1 Test, and she returns in a first-level allowance where she’ll be allowed to run with Lasix; #8 SAM’S TREASURE (8-1): Ran well in her 2024 debut, when she was second behind a next-out winner in her first start since September. Unlike many others in here, she can stalk the pace and pass others late, which could prove to be very valuable; #3 ROSWELL (5-1): Hasn’t run a poor race to date and cuts back in distance after 7 1/2 furlongs proved to be just a bit too far. Her two prior efforts at Gulfstream Park were solid, and a repeat of those performances would likely get her a piece of this one.

R8

El Capi
Brown entry
One Giant Leap

#6 EL CAPI (4-1): Looked like a monster in his unveiling, when he crushed an overmatched field at Aqueduct and earned a 99 Beyer Speed Figure. We haven’t seen him since then, but he’s working steadily for a barn that can be pretty patient, and if he’s right, look out; BROWN ENTRY (5/2): I prefer #1 GENERAL PARTNER, who was second in last year’s Grade 1 Champagne before faltering in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. He’s been working well ahead of his seasonal debut, and it wouldn’t be a surprise if this was a prep for a much bigger spot later this summer; #10 ONE GIANT LEAP (15-1): Likely lost his 2024 debut at the starting gate, as he was a non-factor as a 6/5 favorite after a slow break. His late-2023 form, however, was pretty strong, and I’m expecting, well, one giant leap forward for very capable connections at a juicy price.

R9

Roses for Debra
Gal in a Rush
Love Reigns

#6 ROSES FOR DEBRA (6/5): Came back running with a win in the Grade 3 Giant’s Causeway and is a very logical favorite in the Grade 2 Intercontinental. She went 2-for-2 here last year, including a win in the Grade 3 Caress, and seems the most likely winner and new Intercontinental Champion; #8 GAL IN A RUSH (10-1): Returned with a strong second in the License Fee downstate and got pretty good last year before going to the sidelines. Flavien Prat sees fit to ride back for Christophe Clement, who may very well run 1-2 in here; #10 LOVE REIGNS (3-1): Chased my top pick last time and figures to get plenty of pace to run at in her second start off the bench. She’s shown plenty of talent in the past, and this will be her first start without a layoff line in the form since mid-2022.

R10

Gina Romantica
Chili Flag
Coppice

#3 GINA ROMANTICA (3-1): Is one of five Chad Brown trainees in the Grade 1 Just A Game, and she cuts back to her preferred one-mile trip second off the bench. Unlike last time, in the Grade 1 Jenny Wiley, she should have some pace to chase, which is a must given her late-running style; #6 CHILI FLAG (4-1): Notched her third win in the last four starts in the Grade 2 Distaff Turf Mile. Toss her dud three back at Gulfstream, and you have a classy mare that hasn’t done much wrong at all over the last year and a half; #4 COPPICE (3-1): Was a close-up second behind my second choice last time out at Churchill, and she might have needed that race off a long break. She ran with the likes of Inspiral and Nashwa overseas last year, and improvement is logical second off the bench.

R11

Didia
War Like Goddess
American Sonja

#3 DIDIA (9/2): Stretches back out to her preferred trip and gets a tepid nod in a wide-open renewal of the Grade 1 New York. She’s proven at this distance and should be able to sit an ideal stalking trip, which would give her first run turning for home; #10 WAR LIKE GODDESS (4-1): Has been a stalwart of the turf the last several years and makes her first start since last year’s Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Turf. She’s never been out of the exacta in five local starts, and she’s a major player if she’s ready to run; #5 AMERICAN SONJA (10-1): Ships in from Europe and attracts Frankie Dettori, which is always enough to merit consideration. She most recently captured a Group 3 in France, but she’s run fairly well stateside, too, having finished second in last year’s Grade 3 Saratoga Oaks.

R12

Thorpedo Anna
Just F Y I
Power Squeeze

#9 THORPEDO ANNA (8/5): Comes in off of an authoritative score in the Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks and looms large despite a tricky outside draw. She’s trained forwardly since that performance, and if she’s right, she’ll once again be a handful in the Grade 1 Acorn; #4 JUST F Y I (5/2): Gave my top pick a scare at the top of the stretch in the Oaks before finishing a best-of-the-rest second. This is her third start off the layoff, and the local drills are certainly eye-catching; #2 POWER SQUEEZE (12-1): Was never comfortable in the Oaks, where she broke next-to-last and had to navigate a sloppy track she may not have cared for. Prior to that clunker, she reeled off four straight wins, and the jockey switch to Javier Castellano could help her get back on track.

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $200

First and foremost, it’s fantastic to be back. I’m grateful to the management of The Saratogian and Raketech for allowing me to do this again, and I’m excited to get back into the swing of things during an exciting, history-making week in upstate New York.

If you’re new to this, a quick crash course: In addition to selections and analysis for every race, I’ve got a section where I can expound on money management and, hopefully, parlay my picks and thoughts into smart bets that make money. If the top-three picks are Handicapping 101, this is Handicapping 201. There’s no way to give picks and analysis that pleases everyone (thanks, horse racing Twitter!), but this way reaches wide groups of people with varying levels of experience, and it’s one that we’ve seen works over time.

For the summer meet, I’ll have a $1,000 bankroll to use over the 40-day schedule. I’m treating this as a separate endeavor and giving myself $200 over the Belmont Stakes Racing Festival. Let’s see what we can do.

THURSDAY’S PLAYS: We’ll head to the eighth race, where I think #1 ROMANTIC CHARMER has a big chance to improve in his first turf start against a field that includes multiple horses coming off of long layoffs. I’ll key that one in $5 exactas above and below #6 FILM ACADEMY, #7 ALL GOOD HERE, and #9 MISSION HILL, and I’ll also have a $10 win bet on him. As a reminder, bets in turf races assume those events stay on they grass, and surface changes cancel all tickets.

TOTAL WAGERED: $40.

Winners and Whiners is your home for the best sports betting promos on the market. Check out expert handicapping picks for all major sports, including baseball, basketball, hockey, and football!

SELECTIONS/ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Three Echoes, Race 2
Longshot: Romantic Charmer, Race 8

R1

Drunk On Sake
Bookworm
Caesar’s Ghost

#5 DRUNK ON SAKE (8-1): Didn’t do much running in his career debut, but he takes a significant drop at second asking, adds both Lasix and blinkers, and could improve going to the turf. His pedigree says he’ll like the lawn, and that may be enough against a suspect group; #6 BOOKWORM (7/5): Will be a significant favorite, but I have my doubts. This is a strong barn, but the outfit is 0-for-12 with first-out maiden claimers going back to mid-July of 2022, and seeing a $150,000 purchase debut for a $40,000 tag is a red flag; #12 CAESAR’S GHOST (9/2): Needs some luck to draw in off the AE list, but he ran reasonably well in three turf races against maiden special weight foes. The layoff is a concern, but anything close to his last-out performance at Kentucky Downs would give him a big shot.

R2

Three Echoes
Touchy
Classic of Course

#5 THREE ECHOES (5/2): Got a lot of experience in his debut, when he overcame considerable trouble to win at first asking. That’s not something 2-year-olds often do, and I think he’s very well-meant coming into the Tremont; #7 TOUCHY (2-1): Debuts for Wesley Ward, who’s one of the best first-out trainers in the game. His works are strong, and there’s every reason to think he’s well-meant, but given his pedigree, I wonder if he wants a bit longer than this 5 1/2-furlong trip; #8 CLASSIC OF COURSE (7/2): Led every step of the way in his debut at Gulfstream and attracts Irad Ortiz, Jr. It’s unlikely another perfect trip will materialize here, but he certainly figures to be prominent from the start.

R3

Caldo Candy
Silver Satin
Land d’Oro

#2 CALDO CANDY (3-1): Has yet to run a truly bad race to this point and was a solid second at this level last time out downstate. That day’s winner came right back to win again, and the recent bullet drill over this surface is encouraging; #5 SILVER SATIN (5/2): Faces winners for the first time after graduating in a swiftly-run maiden race in April. He’s yet to run out of the exacta in three starts, and the step up in class may not be too much of a problem; #7 LAND D’ORO (4-1): Cuts back to seven furlongs after finishing second going a mile back in April. His lone win to date came at this distance, and the jockey switch to soon-to-be Hall of Fame rider Joel Rosario is a big one.

R4

Almostgone Rocket
Manama Gold
Becky’s Joker

#5 ALMOSTGONE ROCKET (6/5): Has been extremely impressive in two starts to date, including a first-level allowance score on Kentucky Oaks Day. Unlike many others in the Jersey Girl, she’s shown she doesn’t need the lead to run well, and she looms very, very large; #4 MANAMA GOLD (6-1): Went 3-for-3 in Dubai earlier this year, including a win in the Group 3 UAE Oaks. She hasn’t run since february, but her workouts are solid enough and she’s another that could be sitting just off of a very hot pace; #3 BECKY’S JOKER (8-1): Captured the Grade 3 Schuylerville last time out in her career unveiling, but went to the sidelines after a dud a few weeks later. She’s been working well for patient connections and could be another beneficiary of the likely race shape.

R5

In the End
Strictly Taboo
Heart of the Night

#6 IN THE END (9/2): Gets a tepid top pick in a turf sprint where I’m truly not in love with any runner. She, however, goes second off the bench and faces state-bred company for the first time, so there’s reason to believe she’ll move forward; #1 STRICTLY TABOO (3-1): Ran well at this level several times last year and gets reunited with Joel Rosario in her first try since October. Christophe Clement can get horses ready to run off the bench, and she’ll be a major player if she can overcome the inside draw; #9 HEART OF THE NIGHT (5-1): Comes east after starting her career in California and is another facing NY-breds for the first time. Her last two races weren’t anything to write home about, but her 2022 and early-2023 form is strong enough to merit consideration.

R6

Pletcher entry
She’s Wicked Smart
Silvology

PLETCHER ENTRY (6/5): Both #1 CHANTEUSE and #1A AUDACIOUS could win. It would appear they’ve worked in company the last few weeks, and they both draw top-class riders for their respective unveilings; #5 SHE’S WICKED SMART (4-1): Ran well when third in her debut last summer behind Just F Y I, who ultimately wound up becoming the top 2-year-old filly in the country. She’s been off more than nine months, but she’s worked steadily and has every right to be a good one; #2 SILVOLOGY (12-1): Has a very classy pedigree and fired a bullet drill downstate last week for a trainer that doesn’t often ask much of unraced horses. Most of the pedigree says she’d be a top-class turf horse, but she’s flashed enough potential to indicate she could factor in this dirt event at a price.

R7

Ways and Means
Miz Sense
Broderie

#7 WAYS AND MEANS (2/5): Exits the Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks, where she was fourth behind Thorpedo Anna and may have been going a bit longer than she wants to run. The cutback to a mile should suit her perfectly, she gets Lasix for the first time, and the class relief is a big, big plus; #4 MIZ SENSE (8-1): Won first time out at this route, which is a tricky thing to do, and hasn’t been seen in the afternoon since she lost Manny Franco at the start of the Grade 1 Spinaway. She comes back for Pletcher here, while adding Lasix and Irad Ortiz, Jr.; #6 BRODERIE (10-1): Won a pair of restricted races in Florida before shipping to Aqueduct and finishing second at this distance. That day’s winner, Midtown Lights, is a solid runner, and this one may sit an ideal stalking trip.

R8

Iron Man Ira (MTO)
Romantic Charmer
Film Academy

#1 ROMANTIC CHARMER (8-1): Tries turf for the first time, and his pedigree says he’ll love it. He’s by Mendelssohn, out of a Langfuhr mare, and he may not have to move forward much off of his dirt races to win this (his last-out Beyer Speed Figure of 72 is the highest number in the main body of the field); #6 FILM ACADEMY (7/2): Has been off four months but stretches out in his first start since January for very strong connections. He was third in his career debut last summer over this turf course, and he may be on or near the lead in a race without much early zip; #9 MISSION HILL (4-1): Is one of several comebackers, having not run since a so-so fourth at this route in late-August. He’s been gelded since that effort, and a logical move forward would put him right there if he’s ready to run.

R9

Long Neck Paula
French Horn
Aoraki

#9 LONG NECK PAULA (2-1): Cruised to an easy win in her debut over 10 rivals at Keeneland and draws a cushy outside post in the Astoria. Her recent local drill was solid enough, and when Wesley Ward gets young horses on the right track, they tend to stay there; #3 FRENCH HORN (7/2): Wired the field in her debut over Woodbine’s synthetic track and sports a recent bullet drill that suggests dirt won’t be a problem here. Flavien Prat hops aboard this daughter of the mare Emma’s Encore, who gave H. Allen Jerkens his last Grade 1 win in the 2012 Prioress here at Saratoga; #2 AORAKI (5-1): Debuted with a win in a restricted race at Churchill Downs, but despite my concerns about what she beat, I have to admit she won the right way. The Steve Asmussen trainee showed some grit and passed others late, which isn’t the traditional winning trip for a first-time starter.

R10

Dai Vernon (MTO)
Siskany
The Grey Wizard

#12 SISKANY (1-1): Ships in for the Godolphin/Charles Appleby partnership, which has won some of America’s biggest turf races over the last few years. Also in tow is regular rider William Buick, who’s piloted this gelding to many of his 10 career wins (including last year’s renewal of this race, the Grade 2 Belmont Gold Cup); #11 THE GREY WIZARD (8-1): Goes third off the bench for Graham Motion and stepped forward when third in the Grade 3 Louisville last time out. He was second in this race a year ago and reunites with Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez; #3 REALLY GOOD (15-1): Is one of several Mike Maker trainees in this field, and he comes in off of a win downstate. He won the Kent Stakes going long last year, and his plodding style may mean this two-mile distance is exactly what he wants.