Andrew Champagne

Getting Back To Writing For Fun, And Writing What I Know

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

Somewhere between Newark, New Jersey, and San Francisco, California, as an Alaska Airlines flight attendant repeatedly barreled into my right shoulder with a lower body reminiscent of Earl Campbell, I realized I hadn’t written anything consistently solely for my own pleasure in quite a while.

I’ve written for work, I’ve written because I’ve felt a need to write something, and I’ve written calls to action of sorts. However, for a bunch of reasons, the urge to write things because I enjoy writing was gone for a while.

It’s back now, thank goodness, and my early New Year’s Resolution of sorts is simple: Write more. I figure I’m good for a column a week most weeks, with the exception of when Saratoga Race Course is open for business (more news is coming on my plans for this summer in the next few months). Want more than that, or want me to focus on something in particular? Tell me. The “contact” feature on my site works, and I see everything that comes in.

People smarter than me say to write what you know, so let’s give it a whirl. Most of my experience is in the gambling space, so there’ll be a healthy dose of that in a lot of what I put together. However, there’ll be some other stuff in there, too (stuff I hope someone out there either enjoys reading or needs to hear).

With that in mind, here’s a list of the things I’ve come to know that, hopefully, proves helpful to someone out there.

I know that more educated, informed fans become better, more devoted fans that will spend more time, energy, and money on a given product.

I know that, to be a better horse racing fan, you’d be well served to spend time reading stuff written by folks named Clancy, Nevills, Voss, Scheinman, Grening, Wincze-Hughes, Beyer, and Crist, rather than stuff put together by people who can barely put out a somewhat-coherent, 280-character post on the platform formerly known as Twitter.

I know that renaming the previously-mentioned platform X was a cataclysmically-stupid move, so I’ll reference it as such as little as possible.

I know that the previously-mentioned flight attendant must have seen what I wrote in the first paragraph, because she damn near elbowed me in the temple just now. Sorry, ma’am.

I know that, from the perspective of horse racing’s establishment, the problem is never the problem, but people TALKING about the problem. I know this because of what some in the media are experiencing now, and from first-hand experience nearly 10 years ago.

I know that, at some point, I’ll tell that story publicly. Not yet, though.

I know that, if horse racing continues this harmful and borderline-shameful practice, the chances of there ever being any sort of productive change within an industry that sorely needs it get lower and lower.

I know that, if you give attention whores attention, they win.

I know that because you’re still hearing about Lord Miles in the Wood Memorial eight months later. If it didn’t get the reaction of “drive some people crazy and get under the skin of people whose buttons I enjoy pushing,” do you really think I’d still be doing it?

By extension, I know that not nearly enough people have ever learned that lesson.

I know the biggest winner in most legal cases is “billable hours.”

I know that Saratoga hosting the Belmont for a few years is a polarizing topic.

I know that Saratoga can throw a horse racing-themed festival like few other places on the planet.

I know that there are very real, very logical objections some have involving the race’s distance and plans for after the mid-2020’s.

I know horses haven’t been bred to go 12 furlongs for decades now, and that dismissing that fact seems dangerous (especially when a career turf sprinter somehow saw 293 mares this breeding season).

I know that I’m going to miss Golden Gate Fields when it closes in June, and I hope that closure doesn’t impact the Northern California fair circuit that’s near and dear to my heart.

I know that, heaven help me, I’m going to miss Aqueduct, too.

I know Mike Repole’s heart is in the right place, and that I have a significant amount of respect for his acumen as a businessman, a horse owner, and an ambassador of horse racing.

I know nobody has ever won anything of substance based on a Twitter poll.

I know that anyone with a net worth north of $100 million should be paying new college graduates living wages to snatch their phones from their hands when the urge to let fly with a platform-formerly-known-as-Twitter rampage comes bubbling to the surface.

I know we’ve got one life to live and that there’s no excuse spending any of it being miserable on social media, to people you’ll never meet, for reasons most logical people will never understand.

I know that public and semi-public figures put themselves out there and sign up for backlash.

I know that family members are off-limits.

I know that everyone needs a support system to go to when things get rough.

I know that I appreciate everyone that constituted mine when I went through some rough stuff earlier this year. I’m on the other side of most of it, and I’m in the debt of anyone reading this who took the time to check in, send a message, make a phone call, or otherwise reach out.

I know time is the most valuable resource we have.

I know there’s no substitute for time spent with family, friends, and loved ones. I love you all, and you know who you are.

2023 BREEDERS’ CUP: Saturday Analysis And Selections

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

After a busy Breeders’ Cup Friday (complete with two live streams and a radio show!), we’re back for more on Saturday at Santa Anita. I’m taking stands against a number of horses I feel are beatable favorites, and here’s hoping a few of them pay off!

Dirt Mile

Well, we’ll start with the least popular stand I can take: I think #3 CODY’S WISH (9/5) is beatable. If this was a one-turn mile, he’d be a near-cinch. His two-turn form, though, is just “very good.” I can’t bet “very good” at odds-on in a Breeders’ Cup race.

My stands against will include #4 ZOZOS (6-1) and #9 NATIONAL TREASURE (8-1). The former has won four of his last five starts for trainer Brad Cox, who doesn’t see his horses fall out of form in big spots very often. The latter, of course, is your Grade 1 Preakness Stakes winner, and while his recent efforts have been disappointing, his workouts hint that he’s sitting on a big effort. Add in that both of those horses should be on or near the lead in a race without any other formidable pace factors signed on, and I think the time is right to take a swing.

If I’m wrong, I’ll tip my hat, appreciate the finish to a phenomenal story, and start wondering if Cody’s Wish is a Hall of Famer. From a betting standpoint, though, I just cannot endorse him at a prohibitive price.

Filly and Mare Turf

The sheer amount of back class possessed by #6 INSPIRAL (5/2) is impossible to ignore. She’s run in nothing but Group 1 races for more than two years, she’s won five of them, and her Timeform numbers are very, very strong. I think she’s going to be a very tough favorite and I won’t take too strong a stand against her.

If you’re looking for a bigger price, I’ve got two to consider. #3 WITH THE MOONLIGHT (20-1) hasn’t done much wrong in her five North American starts, where she’s yet to finish out of the top two. She may have needed the Grade 1 E.P. Taylor at Woodbine, where she also might’ve moved too early in her first start since May. Add in that you’re getting Charles Appleby and William Buick at a bonkers price, and there’s stuff to like.

#9 DIDIA (8-1), meanwhile, has won five of six North American races and is 3-for-4 with a second at this 1 1/4-mile distance. She draws well and has enough tactical speed to allow for plenty of options in the early going.

Filly and Mare Sprint

I think the post position draw did #1 GOODNIGHT OLIVE (6/5) no favors. The rail isn’t where she wants to be, especially in a race with so much early speed to her outside. She obviously has lots of ability, but I think she’s a very beatable favorite.

#7 SOCIETY (5/2) hits me as the one to beat. She seems like the speed of the speed, she’s in outstanding form, and she boasts the Steve Asmussen work tab I really like. When I see a two-back work that’s very fast, followed by an easy maintenance move, that’s often a sign the horse in question is ready to fire a big shot.

The other one I’m intrigued by is a big price. #5 KIRSTENBOSCH (10-1) won the local prep for this race and could benefit from a pace meltdown. She was solid going two turns, but seems to have found her niche in sprint races, and I think she could come rolling late at a large number.

Mile

Japan looks very tough in here, as #10 SONGLINE (5/2) is a logical favorite. She’s run a number of very fast races in her home country, and anything close to any of the last three races she’s run will make her very tough to top.

I’ll have two logical horses and one price underneath. #3 CASA CREED (8-1) is going to get plenty of support off of two wins in New York, and #11 KELINA (6-1) does her best running over the firm ground she’ll get at Santa Anita. My bigger-priced “B horse,” so to speak, is #8 DU JOUR (15-1), who retains the services of Flavien Prat and sure seems to be in career-best form late in his 5-year-old season.

Distaff

This race took a significant hit for me when #3 PRETTY MISCHIEVOUS (8-1) scratched. She was my best bet of the day and hit me as an absolute gift at that price, given the abundance of early speed signed on and the talent she’s shown in some very big spots.

With her out, I’ll press on. #9 CLAIRIERE (4-1) seems like the most logical closer in the group. That Asmussen work pattern comes up here, and I’m more than willing to toss her last-out clunker in the Grade 1 Personal Ensign. Anything close to her early-2023 form would give her a big shot, especially given the likely race shape, and I think she’s the most likely winner.

#7 WET PAINT (10-1) doesn’t seem fast enough on figures, but she should definitely benefit from the likely battle up front, and as such, I can’t ignore her. Of the ones with speed, the one that intrigues me the most if #6 SEARCH RESULTS (5-1). I think she’ll be the most likely one to have the lead turning for home. The question is, how much will she have left when the closers start making up ground?

Turf

Europe has sent some big guns over for this one. #5 AUGUSTE RODIN (3-1) will look to continue one of the classiest campaigns by a European runner this season. He’s won multiple high-prestige Group 1 races, including a few at this 1 1/2-mile distance, and we know Aidan O’Brien can get a horse ready to run here.

My other “A horse,” though, comes not from Europe, but from Japan. #1 SHAHRYAR (15-1) has back races that make him very competitive against this group. I think his last race is a throwout, as he had a medical procedure done after that dud. If we see the Shahryar that ran in 2022, he’ll have every chance to win at a big price.

#9 MOSTAHDEF (5/2) and #11 KING OF STEEL (4-1) aren’t totally illogical, and I won’t be stunned if either runner wins. However, the former has legitimate distance questions and may be best going a bit shorter, and the latter has chased Auguste Rodin three different times.

Classic

With Pretty Mischievous out of the Distaff, my best bet resides here, and it’s #8 USHBA TESORO (4-1). If he repeats the race he ran to win the Grade 1 Dubai World Cup, I simply don’t think any other horse in this field is capable of beating him.

I wish we were getting a bigger price, and for a time, it seemed we would. However, with Arcangelo, Geaux Rocket Ride, and Mage not lining up for the race, what I thought would be an 8-1 shot is now probably the 4-1 second choice. Still, I think he’s a force to be reckoned with.

Turf Sprint

This is a chaotic race with several world-class speedsters signed on. I can see #3 CARAVEL (5-1), #5 LIVE IN THE DREAM (9/2), and #7 NOBALS (6-1) all going early, and all three of those runners are talented enough to be hanging around at the end.

I can see all three of those potentially winning this, but the one I’m truly intrigued by is #9 ROSES FOR DEBRA (12-1). She won four in a row before catching a boggy turf course at Parx last time out, and I’m more than willing to draw a line through that race. Roses for Debra has enough speed to be close early, but she won’t be intimidated if she has to sit a stalking trip. Such a trip, in fact, could be to her benefit if the leaders start running out of gas turning for home. 

Sprint

We’ll finish things off with another spot where I’m against the favorite, albeit mildly. I can see #8 ELITE POWER (9/5) winning this race, and I’ll have him as a “B horse” on a few tickets. However, two others intrigue me more.

#7 SPEED BOAT BEACH (3-1) is my top pick. He came off a very long layoff in the Grade 2 Santa Anita Sprint Championship and did everything but win that race, where he fell short by a head to Dr. Schivel. When Speed Boat Beach is right, he’s got a world of talent. He’s been training very well, and I think he’s sitting on a career-best effort.

The other one I’ll lean on is #9 GUNITE (4-1), who cuts back to his preferred trip and always seems to fire. He beat Elite Power on the square two back in the Grade 1 Forego and draws a favorable outside post, one that should give jockey Tyler Gaffalione plenty of options.

2023 BREEDERS’ CUP: Friday Analysis And Selections

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

The 2023 Breeders’ Cup is upon us (and given the avalanche of bad news that’s hit the event ahead of this year’s renewal, it cannot come and go soon enough). The wagering menu is as robust as you’ll see all year long, and there are plenty of opportunities for enterprising handicappers to score.

This guide gives you my analysis into each Breeders’ Cup race on Friday. Generally speaking, the stronger my opinion is, the more in-depth my analysis will be.

Let’s dive in, shall we?

Juvenile Turf Sprint

I’m of two minds on the first of 14 championship races. On one hand, it sure looks like about half of these horses need the lead, which could result in a pace meltdown. On the other, you absolutely want to be on or near the lead going five furlongs on the turf at Santa Anita, so taking a stone closer doesn’t seem like the wisest course of action, either.

I’ve settled on #9 AMIDST WAVES (8-1), who won three in a row before a hard-luck second in the Indian Summer at Keeneland. She’s got some early speed, but has also shown she can settle just off the pace and capitalize on a first-run sort of trip. Flavien Prat signing on is also a really good thing, and I think we’ll get a fair price on a horse that’s shown plenty of ability to this point.

Others to consider: #1 CRIMSON ADVOCATE (4-1), #11 SLIDER (8-1)

Juvenile Fillies

If #7 TAMARA (4/5) takes to two turns, she probably wins, but is that a certainty? She’s going to be one of the shortest-priced favorites on the two-day program, and while I can’t sit here and tell you she doesn’t have a chance, I’ll go elsewhere with my top selection.

#9 BRIGHTWORK (12-1) won four in a row earlier this year, including the Grade 1 Spinaway. I think her last-out clunker may very well have been a bounce, and I like how she’s worked since that effort. Given all she accomplished in the first four starts of her campaign, I’m more than willing to give her another shot at what hits me as a significantly-overlaid price.

Others to consider: #1 CANDIED (4-1), Tamara, #8 ESPRIT ENCHANTE (20-1)

Juvenile Fillies Turf

My only significant stance is that I’m not sold on this race’s likely favorites. #11 SHE FEELS PRETTY (4-1) was the beneficiary of a pace meltdown in the Grade 1 Natalma at Woodbine, and there’s nothing saying #6 PORTA FORTUNA (5-1) wants two turns.

I’m most intrigued by #5 CONTENT (15-1) and #7 GALA BRAND (12-1). The former looks much better if you draw a line through her two-back clunker, while the latter got no pace to run at last time out and has shown a very strong turn of foot. Having said that, it’s not like I’ve got an overwhelmingly strong opinion here.

Others to consider: Whichever prices tickle your fancy.

Juvenile

Bob Baffert and Todd Pletcher each saddle three runners in what seems like an outstanding betting race. I think #2 PRINCE OF MONACO (4-1) is going to drift up a bit from the morning line price, and that happening would make him the value play of this field. His pedigree says two turns won’t be an issue, and anything close to his two-back romp at Del Mar would make him the one to beat.

I respect #6 LOCKED (7/2) as well. He was sensational breaking his maiden at Saratoga and overcame a wide trip to win the Grade 1 Breeders Futurity at Keeneland. #10 MUTH (4-1), meanwhile, hits me as the contender to play against. He had a picture-perfect trip in the Grade 1 American Pharoah and draws a very, very wide post in this event. It’s not like he’s totally without a shot, but his likely price seems like an underlay.

Others to consider: #4 TIMBERLAKE (4-1), #9 FIERCENESS (6-1)

Juvenile Turf

I think Aidan O’Brien has this field over a barrel. The question is, which well-meant European runner do you prefer: #2 RIVER TIBER (3-1) or #8 UNQUESTIONABLE (4-1)?

For me, it’s the former. River Tiber went 3-for-3 to start his career before hooking a buzzsaw named Vandeek in back-to-back Group 1 races. There’s pedigree here that suggests two turns won’t be a problem, and my guess is jockey Ryan Moore had his pick of which runner to ride. He lands here, and that’s a pretty big vote of confidence.

In a race where it doesn’t seem like the American runners stack up particularly well, River Tiber is as close to a single as I have on the first of two Breeders’ Cup programs. I’ll have Unquestionable on a few tickets as a saver, but most of my action flows through your morning line favorite.

Others to consider: Unquestionable

INTERLUDE: A Disappointing, Tragic 2023 Saratoga Meet

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

When things get weird, writers write, and I can think of no weirder time during my career than this summer.

I’m writing the bulk of this column Saturday night, hours after Travers Day. It should’ve been a celebration of the best Saratoga has to offer. Arcangelo stamped himself as the best 3-year-old in the country with a win in the Midsummer Derby, and stalwarts Echo Zulu and Gunite both won major stakes races.

Of course, all of that pales in comparison to what happened on the rest of the card. Two more horses passed away due to catastrophic injuries. One of them, New York Thunder, seemed on his way to victory in the Allen Jerkens when he went down in midstretch, to the horror of the Saratoga crowd and those watching around the country on FOX. It’s the second time in a month a major breakdown has happened in a race broadcast on that network (Maple Leaf Mel, of course, suffered a fatal injury in the Test).

Now, everyone involved is looking for a path forward. Many on horse racing Twitter, a highly-opinionated space even in the best of times, called for the rest of the meet to be cancelled. Whether or not that’s deemed the most sound decision is anyone’s guess, but the constant barrage of rain this summer at Saratoga sure seems to have changed the track, not unlike what happened at Santa Anita a few years ago. Rain in upstate New York is nothing new, but we haven’t seen a summer like this in a very, very long time.

An emergency meeting was called Saturday night. I imagine we’ll know more in the coming days. For now, though, all I can say is that I’m sick to my stomach. I was excited for the start of this season, as I have been most summers during my life.

Then it started.

There’s no aspect of this meet that hasn’t been disappointing in some form or fashion. The weather has wreaked havoc on programs, turning competitive turf races into five or six-horse affairs out of the Wilson chute (which has gotten WAY too much use). Inquiries and objections have been handled, to be kind, in a very inconsistent manner by stewards, and a few decisions have rendered members of the New York Racing Association’s own TV crew speechless. Breakdowns haven’t just happened. They’ve happened too frequently, on big stages, in full view of not just hardened horseplayers, but families crammed into spots on the track aprons that are usually empty at other NYRA locales.

There have also been plenty of headaches induced on the wagering end. Computer groups, while shut out of NYRA’s win pools, have started hammering exacta payoffs down to where those combinations routinely pay significantly less than they should. The biggest races on the calendar have struggled to draw full fields. In addition, of course, there was the fiasco where surfaces were changed with one minute to post before the first leg of a Pick Five.

(Quick note: I got some heat for my response to that last chain of events, which probably wasn’t worded the best in the heat of the moment but did say that I needed to know more about communication behind the scenes before crushing NYRA. As it turned out, the organization lobbied for a delay that would’ve given players a chance to change tickets, and those efforts were rebuffed. It was a bad situation all around, communication from NYRA to horseplayers was far from ideal, and that shouldn’t ever repeat itself, but it turns out I may have been…at least partially right?)

The simple thing to do is blame one organization or group of people. It’s easy to blame NYRA, or horsepeople who are perceived to operate in certain ways. Unfortunately, while a few individual arguments aren’t without decent points, the bigger answer is almost certainly far more complex and doesn’t lend itself to the lazy ways we tend to communicate with one another.

We don’t breed as many horses as we used to. The ones we produce don’t run as much, or for as long a time period. Some are bred with 2-year-old sales in mind, not 4-year-old races, which leads to longterm soundness issues and, in my opinion, a weaker breed in general. Owners consolidate their stock with fewer trainers, leading to field size headaches, and some of those trainers have rap sheets longer than Jack Kerouac’s scroll of “On the Road.” Computer-assisted groups are problematic to the average bettor, and horse racing as a whole has no idea what to do with them, or how to effectively answer the question, “what is a foul that merits disqualification?” Finally, of course, Mother Nature has been Saratoga’s worst enemy, and there have been times NYRA has been caught flat-footed in its response to the elements. Mix all of that together, and you get…this.

There aren’t many people in horse racing’s community who are more connected with one track than I am with Saratoga. It’s where I grew up, where I made my bones as a writer and handicapper, and where I’m happy to help as many people as I can in whatever way(s) I can. Even folks who think I’m a moron and who enjoy bashing me for existing are welcome to come find me and break bread at a racetrack whenever I’m at one (it’s not like I’m a hard guy to find).

I’ve had people tell me I’m being too hard on horse racing. I’ve also seen people say I’m lobbying for a job with NYRA. Neither of those viewpoints are true, and to be honest, if people are saying both things, I’m probably being pretty fair.

My experience and perspective means that I see these 40 days in upstate New York as a representation of the best horse racing has to offer, in front of the best fans in the sport. Instead (and please excuse the too-easy cliche coming up), a perfect storm of horrible things have converged on the small city in upstate New York. Instead of being reminded how great this game can be at its best, this meet has shown us how hard it can be at its worst, and it’s done so with staggering, torturous regularity.

In short, what I want is both simple and grand: I want Saratoga to feel like Saratoga again.

I don’t know if that can be done this coming week. To be honest, after the meet that’s taken place this summer, I’m not entirely sure it can happen when Saratoga opens its doors in 2024. I love this place very, very much, but there are no two ways about it: If Saratoga continues feeling less like the Saratoga we know and love and more like the setting of a different “Black Mirror” episode every day, a lot of things are in big, big trouble.

SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (8/24/23)

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,009.25

The Wilson chute was built prior to last year’s meet for a few different reasons. It was supposed to cater to milers who would otherwise have to cut back to seven furlongs or, horror of all horrors, stretch out to a mile and an eighth.

In the opinion of this handicapper/writer, Saratoga is overusing it. I said from the outset that I hoped NYRA wouldn’t be cutting back on two-turn dirt racing. Admittedly, the Wilson chute has seen the lion’s share of the off-the-turf races this summer (LOTS of them), but it sure seems like we’re not seeing as many nine-furlong races as we used to at the Spa.

Stuff like this, and the new uphill turf course at Santa Anita, gives me pause. I like quirky courses. They’re fun. Having said that, it sure seems like tracks will literally do ANYTHING to make sure most thoroughbreds campaigned in 2023 don’t have to run two turns.

WEDNESDAY’S RESULTS: Many of my top picks ran second or third, and that’s what happened to B D Saints. After scratches, I dropped $25.

THURSDAY’S PLAY: I’ll focus on the fifth, which houses my live longshot of the day. 6-1 isn’t an insane price, but it hits me as a considerable overlay on #6 SUN AND WIND. I’ll have a $30 win ticket on that one, and I’ll key her up and down in $5 exactas that also use #3 LADY ARWEN and #4 AWESOME CZECH.

TOTAL WAGERED: $50.

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Wednesday: 1-for-10
Meet: 59-for-196

Best Bet: Technical Analysis, Race 9
Longshot: Sun and Wind, Race 5

R1

Alterina
Cause I’m Elegant
Strange Fruit

We start off with a puzzler where I just don’t have a strong opinion. I think it’s possible #6 ALTERINA (9/2) improves second time out for a hot barn. Beyond that, I’ve got nothing for you here.

R2

Instamatic
Adelphi entry
Detective Tom

#7 INSTAMATIC (7/2): Didn’t break well in his debut, where he was favored. He did at least do some running late for a barn whose first-time starters often need a race to get going, and I’m expecting a big step forward; ADELPHI ENTRY (4-1): I most prefer #1A HARD PAR, who needs a scratch to draw into the field. He ran second in his unveiling at a big price, and any sort of improvement would give him a big shot; #4 DETECTIVE TOM (3-1): Comes in off of a strong gate drill and is bred to love the lawn. He’s a son of The Factor, whose offspring tend to prefer the turf, and Jose Ortiz sees fit to ride.

R3

Bold Endeavor (MTO)
Kuramata
Easter

#6 KURAMATA (6/5): Had every right to need his last-out effort off a long break, but ran very well and was beaten just a neck. It’s safe to assume he’s had some issues in his career, but he’s a sharp horse when he’s right and he’s a very logical favorite; #3 EASTER (2-1): Was third in the race my top pick exits and has danced some big dances. He was fourth in last year’s Grade 1 Man o’ War, and he’d benefit from a fast pace up front; #4 MAIN EVENT (6-1): Also ran in that July 30th race and set the pace before tiring late. That was his first run in nearly a year, and this barn’s been winning races at a very strong clip lately. He could go early and prove tough to catch.

R4

Classic Mark
Complete Agenda
Big Bobby

#3 CLASSIC MARK (2-1): Drops back in for a tag after a win over starter allowance foes downstate. The Linda Rice barn must be respected, and I like horses cutting back in distance at these one-mile races, rather than ones stretching out; #6 COMPLETE AGENDA (9/5): Hasn’t won in a while but has faced significantly better horses of late. He chased the likes of Ouster last time out going much longer, and his last victory came at this one-mile distance; #7 BIG BOBBY (9/2): Is a puzzling sort coming in off of an 83-length defeat (yes, you read that correctly). The drop off of a few clunkers is a concern, but he’s run well over this surface in the past and is a contender on his best day.

R5

Sun and Wind
Lady Arwen
Awesome Czech

#6 SUN AND WIND (6-1): Ran well to be a close-up third in her debut and may have simply bounced last time out (an unlucky trip didn’t help matters). The August 9th work jumps off the page, and I think she presents real value at or near the morning line price; #3 LADY ARWEN (even): Tired in her debut earlier this summer, when she rushed up after a tardy start. She has every right to move forward at second asking, and it’s encouraging that Luis Saez opts to ride back; #4 AWESOME CZECH (5/2): Didn’t do much running in her unveiling last month, but she had every right to need that debut. She’s bred to get better with distance and experience, and the stretch-out to seven furlongs should help her.

R6

High Oak (MTO)
Dubb entry
Sosua Summer

DUBB ENTRY (2-1): Both runners can win, but I prefer #2B OXYMORE. He owns a stakes win at this route in last summer’s Skidmore, and if he’s ready to run in his 3-year-old debut, I think he’s the most likely winner; #5 SOSUA SUMMER (6-1): Is a different animal at Saratoga, where he moved to 2-for-2 after a score in an allowance race last month. That was a career-best effort, and while this is a pretty tough spot, he seems to be going the right way for trainer Bill Mott; #9 FAUCI (8-1): Hasn’t won in more than two years, but was a good second last time out and hasn’t been worse than third in five local starts. Flavien Prat hopping aboard is a good sign, and he should be moving late at a bit of a price.

R7

Bustin Bay
Sweet Mystery
Mia Bea Star

#1 BUSTIN BAY (even): Has won three of her last four starts, including a score in the first race of the meet going two turns. She’s won three of six local starts, and is a candidate to notch her 11th win overall in 34 lifetime outings; #6 SWEET MYSTERY (2-1): Cuts back to a mile after finishing second going two turns last time out. She hasn’t won in a while, but she can make up ground late and draws well in this particular spot; #4 MIA BEA STAR (6-1): Ran well to win going a mile downstate two starts ago and wasn’t far behind my top pick last time out. Her record looks far better if you toss her races over wet tracks, and the faster they go early, the better her chances figure to be.

R8

Vitaemi
To a T
Meraviglioso

#8 VITAEMI (3-1): Makes her second start off a brief layoff in this spot and draws a cushy outside post. David Jacobson’s barn has heated up in the back half of the meet, and she seems like the one they’ll have to catch; #2 TO A T (9/5): Hasn’t won in quite a while, but has also been running against higher-quality competition. The drop in class could easily wak her up, and Irad Ortiz, Jr., lands here when he likely had several options; #7 MERAVIGLIOSO (6-1): Is another without a trip to the winner’s circle recently, but she ran well last time out to finish second against similar stock. A similar effort in this race puts her right there with a chance to break the drought.

R9

Technical Analysis
Consumer Spending
Fluffy Socks

#8 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS (9/5): Has never looked like a loser in any of her three local starts and looms large in the Grade 2 Ballston Spa. She’s one of several contenders in here trained by Chad Brown, and she should be able to dictate terms from the jump in an attempt to win this race for the second year in a row; #2 CONSUMER SPENDING (3-1): Comes in off of two stakes wins in a row at Monmouth Park. She’s won three graded stakes races, retains the services of Joel Rosario, and could have every chance to come running late; #4 FLUFFY SOCKS (9/2): Gets significant class relief after chasing tough rivals in the Grade 1 Diana last time out. She won a Grade 2 at Churchill Downs two starts ago and was second in this very race last year behind my top pick.

R10

Toofareastiswest
War Officer
Sacred Rhyme

#9 TOOFAREASTISWEST (5/2): Has run well in all four of his career starts and may have moved too soon going a bit longer last time out. The cutback in distance should suit him here, and it doesn’t seem like he’s tackling any monsters in the Thursday finale; #5 WAR OFFICER (5-1): Debuted with a clunker in an off-the-turf race, but he’s bred to love the lawn and is eligible to take a big step forward. This son of War Front is out of a Galileo mare, and I think he’s doing what he wants to do here; #2 SACRED RHYME (4-1): Had a rough start last time out and didn’t do much running, but his debut was fine and he’s a contender if he runs back to that. The recent Monmouth Works are a question mark, but if you liked him at 7/2 last time out, you may want to give him another shot at a slightly bigger price here.