BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,150

If you’ve followed me, you may know I’ve spent the last year-plus doing videos for the Hong Kong Jockey Club’s North American feed. Unfortunately, I won’t be back in that capacity when this coming season starts next weekend.

The decision was a budgetary one, and I hold no bitterness. In fact, I’m immensely grateful to the folks in Hong Kong, as well as Zac Reynolds, Mitchell Lamb, and the hard-working people at 8Count Media. They approached me (and yes, some naysayers, they approached me, not the other way around) with an amazing opportunity that helped fund a large portion of my wedding this past June. I did what was asked of me as well as I could, and I hope people enjoyed it.

In the meantime, I’m available to do what I did for Hong Kong for any track, anywhere, that may be looking for an on-camera personality who works hard to provide a high-quality product. If you’re looking for somebody, let’s talk.

WEDNESDAY’S RESULTS: Got Stripes gave me a thrill turning for home, when Joel Rosario cut the corner at 12-1, but he came up empty in the lane and I dropped $25.

THURSDAY’S PLAY: I’ll start with $20 win bets on my two strongest opinions. In the third, I’ll go with #2 SHATTUCK, who figures to benefit from the likely race shape, and in the fifth, I’ll ride with #6 BYE BYE MILES, who won a race that’s aged very well last time out. In addition, I’ll play a $2 Pick Three starting in the third linking those two singles with #2 DONA CLOTA, #4 AMERICAN SONJA, and #5 KATHYNMARISSA in the fourth.

TOTAL WAGERED: $46.

SARATOGA SELECTIONS AND ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Bye Bye Miles, Race 5
Longshot: Tahoe Sunrise, Race 9

R1

Factory Setting
San Antonio Sara
Oh

#9 FACTORY SETTING (5/2): Draws an ideal outside post at first asking for Chad Brown and sports a few very solid workouts ahead of her debut in the Thursday lid-lifter. Her dam was a 2-year-old stakes winner, and the three prior runners she’s thrown are all winners; #7 SAN ANTONIO SARA (9/2): Was third in her debut against open company at Gulfstream and has a right to move forward at second asking against fellow New York-breds. This barn’s numbers with second-time starters are very strong, and the experience edge she has on most of these could be a plus; #5 OH (5-1): Has a solid series of drills downstate ahead of her unveiling. Trainer Mike Maker’s numbers with first-time starters are just so-so, but the works from the gate imply she could be precocious.

R2

Cadenza
Mousseline
Market Hours

#6 CADENZA (4-1): Was bet to favoritism in her debut and showed speed before fading to fifth. Her bottom-side pedigree says turf is what she wants. She’s kin to multiple stakes-winning turf and synthetic runner Grecian Fire, among others, and Irad sees fit to ride back; #8 MOUSSELINE (6-1): Is out of one of the better broodmares in the industry, one that’s already thrown multiple Group 1 winner Hawkbill and Grade 1-winning 2-year-old Free Drop Billy, among others. Offspring of Hard Spun tend to like the turf, too, and the first few clicks of the tote board could tell the story here; #10 MARKET HOURS (9/2): Doesn’t draw a great post in her unveiling given the very short run into the turn, but Chad Brown-trained firsters merit respect in these turf races. Her dam is kin to Grade 2 winner Three Technique, and the workouts look fine.

R3

Shattuck
The Boondocker
Blown Cover

#2 SHATTUCK (9/2): Hasn’t won in quite a while, but hits me as one of the few closers in a race otherwise full of early speed. His three-back effort going a one-turn mile at Churchill was solid, and the clunker in the last-out turf experiment may mean we get a slightly bigger price than we should; #7 THE BOONDOCKER (8/5): Ships up from Monmouth and drops in for a tag while also cutting back to one turn. His best race could win this, I suppose, but his speed figures don’t tower over the competition and the class drop is curious. At his likely short price, I’ll take a mild stand against him; #3 BLOWN COVER (5-1): Has hit the board in all three starts at this seven-furlong distance. His two-back effort against similar wasn’t bad, and he hits me as one of several that could be on the lead early on.

R4

Standoutsensation (MTO)
Kathynmarissa
American Sonja

#5 KATHYNMARISSA (9/5): Is one of several stakes-quality runners in this loaded event, and she’ll make her first start since March here. The layoff is a question mark, but Brown’s numbers with new acquisitions are strong, and if she runs to her 2024 races, she’s the one to beat; #4 AMERICAN SONJA (2-1): Returns to the U.S. for new trainer Brendan Walsh, and she’s run in some very big spots over the years. She’s a head away from being a Group 1 winner in France, and if she’s ready off a layoff of nearly 11 months, she’ll be formidable; #2 DONA CLOTA (8-1): Is the “other” Chad Brown trainee and gets Lasix for the first time, which could move this Chilean Group 1 winner forward. As we’ve discussed, this spot isn’t an easy one, but she’s another with prior form in another country that would make her a player, and she may be a bit of a price.

R5

Bye Bye Miles
Bob’s Carrot
Bear Claw Necklace

#6 BYE BYE MILES (5/2): Goes first off the claim for Mike Maker and won a key race at Churchill back in June. That day’s runner-up and third-place finisher both came back to win at next asking, and the most recent work over this track was very sharp; #1 BOB’S CARROT (6-1): Caught a sloppy track last time out that he might not have cared for and tired to finish fifth of six. His two-back wire-to-wire score was a good one, and he’s got enough speed to fully utilize the rail draw; #7 BEAR CLAW NECKLACE (7/2): Pressed the pace in the slop last time out and tired to finish third after hitting the front in the stretch. He’s tackled some tough customers this year, including when he ran fourth in the Sir Barton on the Preakness undercard.

R6

Clap Back
Absolute Smoke
R U Bluffing

#3 CLAP BACK (5/2): Has been working very, very fast ahead of her debut and attracts Irad, who likely had several options in this event. Sire Galilean is off to a promising start, and she certainly looks like she could be primed for a big effort at first asking; #5 ABSOLUTE SMOKE (4-1): Sold for $125,000 and has a strong bottom-side pedigree. Her dam was a stakes winner, and her success has carried over to the breeding shed, as she’s thrown seven winners to date; #4 R U BLUFFING (8-1): Boasts bloodlines familiar to New York-bred enthusiasts, as her dam, Miss Buff, is a full sister to multiple stakes winner Mr. Buff and a half to recent Albany winner Iron Dome. This outfit is a patient one, and she may want longer than this trip, but she’s one to watch moving forward.

R7

Capital Partner
Gloves Off
Dr. Agne

#3 CAPITAL PARTNER (5/2): Ran very, very well in his debut, when he rallied from well back in a race without much pace to win at first asking. The waters get deeper in the Grade 3 With Anticipation, but he’s already shown a ton of potential and may have room to improve; #7 GLOVES OFF (6-1): Ran similarly to my top pick in his own unveiling, when he stormed home at Ellis Park. His dam is kin to Grade 1 winner Highland Falls and multiple stakes winner Long River, and everything about him indicates he’ll only get better with experience; #5 DR. AGNE (7/2): Provided a heck of a story in his debut, when this son of the great Lady Eli rallied from 10 lengths back to win an off-the-turf event. I’m not sure what he beat that day, and I think he may be a hair overbet in here, but it’s also possible he gets even better going to the grass.

R8

Salvation (MTO)
Dirand
A Bourbon for Toby

#11 DIRAND (6-1): Has to navigate an outside post going two turns, which isn’t ideal, but he did everything but win last time out, when he was beaten a nose in July. He may still have room to move forward in just his third lifetime start, and he’s a tepid top pick in a wide-open turf race; #2 A BOURBON FOR TOBY (7/2): Ran well given a pretty slow pace in front of him last time, and he could get a bit more pace in this spot. On speed figures, he makes sense, and Irad riding is a plus, but that 0-for-8 mark doesn’t exactly inspire confidence; #5 OPERATION OVERLORD (12-1): Makes his debut for Todd Pletcher and has a right to be a very, very good turf horse. His dam was a Grade 1 winner on the lawn, and she’s already thrown graded stakes winners Capture the Flag and Personal Best. The question is, is he good enough to go two turns at first asking?

R9

Twenty Four Mamba
Treaty Obligation
Tahoe Sunrise

#9 TWENTY FOUR MAMBA (5/2): Takes a big class drop after chasing much, much better horses in the mud last time out. Little Ni was a next-out winner, Scotland came out of there to run big in the Grade 1 Forego, and these waters are much more shallow for a horse that excels at this distance; #7 TREATY OBLIGATION (6-1): Got taken down earlier this month, and that was probably the right call. New owner/trainer Rudy Rodriguez cuts him back to seven furlongs for this one, and he’s never been worse than second in three local starts; #3 TAHOE SUNRISE (10-1): Merits a long look because he’s not eligible to be claimed. The connections are taking a free shot off the bench, which sometimes signals that they don’t want to lose a horse they think has talent. He’s got back form (though you have to dig a bit to find it), and channeling that would make him a player at a price.

R10

Theprincessfactor (MTO)
Competitive Threat
Artistic Success

#4 COMPETITIVE THREAT (2-1): Has run well twice at this level this summer and was most recently second going a hair longer. This hits me as a weaker group for the level, the slight cutback in distance to a mile should help him, and his tactical speed is a plus; #11 ARTISTIC SUCCESS (5-1): Capitalized on an ideal trip to wire a field of state-bred maiden claimers last month. This is a significant class test, and the far-outside post presents an obstacle, but if she can clear the field and get comfortable, she could make it two in a row; #8 LIFE ADVICE (6-1): Is another that figures to be prominent early, and she’s had a few eventful trips here this summer. Early speed is usually an asset on the inner turf, and smooth sailing could give her a chance.

R11

Sod Siren
Billy White Shoes
Repurpose

#3 SOD SIREN (5-1): Is bred up and down for the grass and is a candidate to improve after a first-out dud over the synthetic at Gulfstream. Flavien Prat will be aboard in the Thursday nightcap, and any sort of a move forward could be enough in this wide-open turf sprint; #8 BILLY WHITE SHOES (4-1): Debuts for Wesley Ward and boasts a monster pedigree, being by top overseas sire Wootton Bassett and out of a mare that’s a half to several nice horses. The question is, given his pedigree and a few sharp workouts, why is he in for a $50,000 tag?; #2 REPURPOSE (7/2): Sold for more than $342,000 overseas in 2023, but debuts for a $50,000 tag and has done most of her preparations at Monmouth. She’ll take money because of the connections, but it’s worth noting Chad Brown hits with just five percent of his first-out maiden claimers, per Brisnet.

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,175

Two major changes are coming to New York horse racing, and both are immensely positive for players. Penny breakage will be the law of the land in the Empire State effective Monday, and, as reported Monday by multiple industry outlets, coupled entries will soon be much more rare.

Penny breakage, of course, puts more money back into the pockets of handicappers, which is never a bad thing. Meanwhile, the nightmare, “half the entry is a late scratch and the other half runs for purse money only,” scenario seems to happen a few times every year. Anything that stops this is a great move, and it seems as though that’s where we’re headed.

Horse racing still has its issues, and acting like certain troubling trends don’t exist is naive at best. However, for as often as bettors complain about getting the short end of the stick, it’s only fair to acknowledge when the industry gets things right. That’s happened twice here, and both changes figure to significantly improve the New York betting product.

SUNDAY’S RESULTS: Gardiner looked like a potential winner turning for home in the sixth, but he ran out of gas and finished third. After scratches, I dropped $68.

WEDNESDAY’S PLAY: I’ll focus on the sixth, where I hope the race sets up for my longshot of the day to come running late. That’s #4 GOT STRIPES, and I’ll have a $25 win bet on that one.

TOTAL WAGERED: $25.

SARATOGA SELECTIONS AND ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Time to Dream, Race 8
Longshot: Got Stripes, Race 6

R1

Hidden Path
Zarak the Brave
Givemefive

#4 HIDDEN PATH (10-1): Merits a long look at a price in the Grade 1 Jonathan Sheppard. His win at this route last time out was sharp, and his lone clunker over fences was excusable given it was his first try in over eight months. Further improvement third off the bench would give him a big shot; #8 ZARAK THE BRAVE (4-1): Returned to form last time out with a third in the Grade 1 A.P. Smithwick. The top two finishers from that event don’t show up here, and while this is far from a soft spot, a repeat of that effort could get him the money; #1 GIVEMEFIVE (3-1): Merits respect coming over from England, but I don’t think his form towers over that of his rivals here. Given that he’ll carry 158 pounds in his first try over a course like this one, I can’t back him on top at his likely price.

R2

Toga Twist
Minorinconvenience
Fourth and One

#2 TOGA TWIST (1-1): Dueled throughout and got his nose down in his debut, and while that day’s runner-up didn’t win next time out, he did run very well to be second again. I’m expecting improvement in his second start, and a move forward would make him tough in the Funny Cide; #5 MINORINCONVENIENCE (5/2): Jogged home clear by 10 lengths in an off-the-turf event and tries winners for the first time. He may not have beaten a ton last time out, but it’s also possible he just needed his debut to figure things out; #3 FOURTH AND ONE (8/5): Completes a 1-2 punch for trainer Jeremiah Englehart in his debut, which comes in an ambitious spot. He does sport a few solid drills, though, and Irad Ortiz Jr. sees fit to hop aboard.

R3

Bostontonian (MTO)
Bosun
Clancy Fancy

#3 BOSUN (2-1): Won his local debut by daylight last month, and that race looks even better given that the runner-up came back to win at next asking. His running lines prior to that race include some classy horses, and he seems like strictly the one to beat; #4 CLANCY FANCY (9/2): Gets a big rider switch to Joel Rosario after probably being left with too much to do last time out. That day’s top two finishers were next-out winners, and he wouldn’t need to move forward a ton to factor here; #7 YARROW (6-1): May have needed his last-out race in June, which was his first try since November. He likes Saratoga and has run well at this route against open company in the past. A return to his 2024 form would make him a contender at a bit of a price.

R4

Belouni
Johny’s Fireball
Irwin

#5 BELOUNI (7/2): Won at this level last time out while overcoming a pretty slow early pace, and that day’s runner-up was a next-out winner. He’s been classy enough to try graded stakes company in the past, but he’s shown he probably needs Lasix to be at his best, and that makes him hard to go against at this level; #4 JOHNY’S FIREBALL (4-1): Takes a drop in class for a barn that’s run second and third quite a bit at this stand. His two-back effort was a very good one, as he ran second against optional claiming foes, and perhaps the shallower waters are what he needs; #3 IRWIN (4-1): Makes his first start in more than 10 months here, and he does so running for a claiming tag for the first time. That’s a bit perplexing, as he’s been a consistent allowance horse for several years. If he’s ready, he’s got a big chance, but I can’t get past a curious class drop.

R5

Solutions
Grand Gesture
Irrelevant

#5 SOLUTIONS (6-1): Comes back to dirt after a failed two-turn turf experiment against a good field last time out. His debut sprinting at Aqueduct wasn’t bad, and the recent string of works indicating he’s sitting on a move forward in a wide-open event; #2 GRAND GESTURE (7/2): Debuts for Bill Mott and is another sporting a strong work tab coming into this one. He’s a full brother to, among others, multiple Grade 2 stakes winner Damon’s Mound, and he could win at first asking (although the claiming tag does make me ask a few questions); #6 IRRELEVANT (4-1): Was well-bet in his debut off of a strong series of workouts, but he didn’t run to the billing and goes turf-to-dirt at second asking. Irad hops aboard, and perhaps he’ll run to his pre-unveiling drills with blinkers going on for trainer Joe Sharp.

R6

Last Man Standing (MTO)
Got Stripes
Repole entry

#4 GOT STRIPES (8-1): Made up a lot of ground mid-race in a weirdly-run event last time out. He should get plenty of speed in front of him here, and the likely race shape should fit him (and Joel Rosario) like a glove; REPOLE ENTRY (2-1): #1A BATTLE DRUM is the part of the entry many will be interested in. He was third at this level and route last time out and Irad runs back, but it’s worth noting that he’s 0-for-9 and has burned money a few times; ST. ELIAS ENTRY (3-1): #2B COMPLEX AGENDA drops in class after rating well behind a pretty slow pace last time out. His debut at this route last summer was far from bad, and while the far-outside post is a problem, he’s another that moves forward given the likelihood of some tempo up front early on.

R7

Hill entry
Solo Empire
Funny Uncle

HILL ENTRY (2-1): Both #1 BARON OF SEALAND and #1A FREEDOM TRAIL are legitimate contenders in this spot. The former was a two and three-back winner at this distance downstate, while the latter takes a massive class drop and adds blinkers for aggressive connections; #4 SOLO EMPIRE (8-1): Merits a look at a price given his early speed and the cutback in distance. He’s run second at this level twice this summer, Flavien Prat sees fit to ride back, and early speed can be tough coming out of the quirky Wilson chute; #5 FUNNY UNCLE (3-1): Is another big class-dropper for an owner/trainer combination that isn’t afraid to lose horses via the claim box. We haven’t seen him since January, when he was a distant seventh at Oaklawn, but if he’s back to the form we saw in 2024, it’s possible he could find the winner’s circle off of the long break.

R8

Time to Dream
Vernon Valley
Blanchett

#2 TIME TO DREAM (2-1): Did everything right in her unveiling, when she rated, overcame some traffic, and rallied to win going away. The P.G. Johnson isn’t an easy spot, but she’s shown she loves this two-turn trip on the lawn and could easily improve at second asking for powerhouse connections; #8 VERNON VALLEY (8-1): Tries turf for the first time while also adding blinkers and stretching out in distance. That last change is key, as her bottom-side pedigree boasts plenty of stamina. Of the runners adding distance, this is the one that intrigues me the most; #1 BLANCHETT (7/2): Didn’t break well in her debut going shorter, and chased a next-out stakes winner to boot. This barn’s horses tend to get better with experience (as the recent flat-bet profit ROI with similar stock shows), and it appears she’s been training well heading into her second start.

R9

Bella Knows
Revel Toast
Turkish Pistachio (AE)

#2 BELLA KNOWS (6-1): Debuts for strong connections in a Wednesday finale she barely qualifies for, having sold for exactly $60,000 at Keeneland last year. She’s by strong turf sire Kantharos, and her dam is a half to multiple stakes-winning turfer Toinette, so this would appear to be exactly what she wants; #6 REVEL TOAST (7/2): Did everything but win in her debut, when she led in the stretch before getting nailed on the wire. Her dam is a half to turf stakes winner Sonic Boom, so she may like the lawn, and improvement is logical at second asking for this red-hot barn; #11 TURKISH PISTACHIO (8-1): Needs a scratch to draw in but is worth a look at a price if she does. She’s been training well, her dam is a full sister to debut winner Spun And Won, and her female family includes Grade 1-winning third dam Maplejinsky, better known as the dam of champion Sky Beauty.

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,243

When in doubt, turn to superstition. After going 0-for-4 to start the Travers Day card, I retreated deep into my closet and changed my shirt. The Old Smoke polo I pulled out has the made-up word “BELMATOGA” blazoned across it many, many times, bought as a trolling attempt by fellow “On The Wrong Lead” podcast co-host Mark Kapitan (when he trolls me, I get free stuff, so I never object).

Suddenly, things changed considerably. After giving out a boxed trifecta in the fifth, my top picks proceeded to win eight of the final nine races, including a race covered in this section.

As Kevin Costner’s Crash Davis said in “Bull Durham,” if you believe you’re playing well because (sanitized for print), you are, and you should know that. My wife hates this shirt, but it’s not going anywhere anytime soon.

SATURDAY’S RESULTS: Hope Road never looked like a loser in the Ballerina, where she stalked and pounced. She got bet down to 2-1, but my $50 win bet returned $152.50.

SUNDAY’S PLAY: We’ll wheel back some of this week’s profits with a stand in the sixth, where I really like #6 GARDINER. In addition to a $50 win bet on that one, he’s a single on a 50-cent late Pick Five ticket starting there that goes as follows: 6 with 1,2,4,5,6,8,9,14 with 6 with 8 with 1,3,5,6,7,10. If Gardiner wins, it’s a good day. If short prices prevail in the eighth and ninth, I’m in position to make it a great day.

TOTAL WAGERED: $74.

SARATOGA SELECTIONS AND ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Gardiner, Race 6
Longshot: Justthefactsjack, Race 9

R1

Off Script
Hello Beauty
Starship Pegasus

#3 OFF SCRIPT (7/2): Came flying late to be second after trailing behind pretty moderate fractions last time out in his turf debut. There seems to be a bit more zip signed on in the Sunday opener, and he shouldn’t have quite as much to do when the real running starts; #5 HELLO BEAUTY (3-1): Runs against New York-breds for the first time after seven tries against open company. Her local debut was a bit disappointing, but her two-back effort at Churchill was quite good, and she’ll be a major player if she can run back to that; #10 STARSHIP PEGASUS (12-1): May have been compromised by a wide post in her debut, which came in the same race my top pick exits. Improvement is logical at second asking, and she doesn’t have to move forward a ton to factor in this one, but she once again had rotten luck at the post position draw.

R2

Hue
Elegant (MTO)
West Loop

#1 HUE (3-1): Takes a big, big drop from optional claiming company into this restricted claimer against fellow non-winners of two. Her return from a long layoff was far from bad, and any sort of a move forward second off the bench would make her a handful; #5 WEST LOOP (5-1): Responded to the class drop last time out, when she was beaten a nose at Monmouth. That day’s winner repeated at next asking, which is a good sign, and she figures to do her best running late; #10 MISS BOURBON (10-1): Hasn’t won in quite a while but drops in for a tag here. Her last-out effort wasn’t very good, but her two and three-back efforts were both sharp, and we may get an inflated price given the recent clunker at this route against horses that were probably better than this bunch.

R3

Man in Finance
Leo’s Reward
On the Hill

#6 MAN IN FINANCE (6/5): Makes his return to the races after being off since November, and judging by the aggressive work tab, he sure looks ready to run. He’ll get Lasix for the first time, and if he runs to his two 2024 starts, the race is probably for second; #3 LEO’S REWARD (7/2): Already makes his 10th start of the year here and suffered a bad beat last time out, when he was beaten a nose after possibly moving just a bit too early. That was Luis Saez’s first time on him, though, and he likely knows him a bit better heading into this event; #5 ON THE HILL (5-1): Looks like the lone closer in a race with plenty of early speed, which means he’s worth a look. He probably needs to improve on speed figures to be a serious contender, but his last-out effort at this level wasn’t bad and he gets an extra sixteenth to work with here.

R4

Walk With Me (MTO)
Alimara
Fleetingly

#1 ALIMARA (4-1): Is part of a formidable 1-2 punch for Chad Brown, and I think you can toss her last-out dud. She was behind a modest pace that day going a bit shorter than this three-turn marathon distance. Her two-back effort at 11 furlongs was solid, and she should get back to her best form; #5 FLEETINGLY (3-1): Was second in an off-the-turf race at Ellis last time and gets her desired surface here. The two-back win at Churchill was a good one, and that came on the heels of a sharp second three back behind a winner that repeated next time out; #4 NATIONAL ARCHIVE (6-1): Goes into open company out of several state-bred races, which isn’t a small step up in class. However, she cleared the first-level allowance condition last time out with a last-to-first blitz in early-July, and Irad Ortiz Jr. lands here. If there’s any sort of pace up front, she stands to benefit.

R5

Watdoyousay Jose
Skylarky
Miss Uproar

#7 WATDOYOUSAY JOSE (6-1): Is one of a few first-time starters in here that may benefit from the experienced runners not showing a whole lot to date. Linda Rice’s barn isn’t great with debuting runners, but she’s been working well and is the third foal to race from a mare that’s produced two winners to date; #6 SKYLARKY (7/2): Runs for Jorge Abreu, who does very well with first-out turfers, and she gets Irad, which is notable. The trainer and jockey have connected at a 41% clip over their last 27 partnerships, and she may not have to be much in order to drive that success rate even higher; #10 MISS UPROAR (12-1): Has been at this level for quite a while and makes her 18th career start here. However, her three recent races at this route haven’t been bad, and at least she’s shown an ability to make up some ground late.

R6

Gardiner
Fort Nelson
Singleminded

#6 GARDINER (5-1): Has found his form this year, with two wins and a second in three 2025 starts, and he looks like the main speed in here. The third-place finisher from the last-out score came back to win, which helps his cause, and I think he could be tough to catch if he gets comfortable; #1 FORT NELSON (2-1): Came back running off the bench on Independence Day, when he broke his maiden in classy fashion at this route. He’s bred to be any kind, though the rail draw isn’t an easy one and he does take on winners for the first time; #7 SINGLEMINDED (7/2): Chased a much-the-best winner last time out, but he did hold second at a pretty big price considering the barn he runs for. He’ll be among the favorites in this one, and he does have some room to improve given that this’ll only be his fourth career outing.

R7

Unlimited Spending
New Issue
Artella

#9 UNLIMITED SPENDING (7/2): Drops in for a tag after being one-paced against maiden special weight foes, and the shallower waters could be what she needs. This isn’t a field of world-beaters, and at least she’s got a big reason she could move forward for big-time connections; #4 NEW ISSUE (9/2): Stretches out to two turns after a pair of sprints, and she’ll make her third career start for her third different trainer. The route distance is a question mark, but she’s hit the board twice at this level and Flavien Prat sees fit to stay aboard; #8 ARTELLA (9/2): Makes her debut and has some bottom-side pedigree, being out of a Grade 3 winner on turf. That mare, Zuzanna, is a half-sister to a horse named Hazelbrook, who had plenty of success sprinting over Woodbine’s synthetic track.

R8

Bank Frenzy (MTO)
Rhetorical
Bettrluckythangood

#6 RHETORICAL (1/2): Is less than a length away from being 4-0 lifetime and looked great when topping open optional claimers at this route last month. He comes back to the state-bred ranks for the West Point, and while his likely price offers next to no value, he’s definitely the one to beat; #3 BETTRLUCKYTHANGOOD (5-1): Is a consistent closer that rallied to finish third going three turns last time out. He’s run up against several foes in here many times, and while the 0-for-4 local record is a concern, there should be some pace in here, and that’s what he wants; #2 CLEAR CONSCIENCE (8-1): Ran very well two back to take the Kingston here at a price, then flopped in the race my top pick exits and finished last of six. That effort hits me as too bad to be true, and at a minimum, his best race gives him a chance at a placing in the Sunday feature.

R9

Senza Parole
Justthefactsjack
Wild Mama

#8 SENZA PAROLE (4/5): Looked like a freak in her debut here last summer, when she romped by nearly eight lengths in 1:09 and change. We haven’t seen her in the afternoon since then, but the recent works look very sharp, and if she’s close to the horse we saw a season ago, there could be plenty to get excited about on Sunday and moving forward; #4 JUSTTHEFACTSJACK (12-1): Seems like the main speed in here and may have been compromised at the start last time. She was fourth early, and that’s too far back. Her two-back effort downstate off a five-month layoff was pretty good, and a return to form gives her a puncher’s chance at a price; #2 WILD MAMA (15-1): Misfired badly in the Tempted after a first-out win for a barn whose debuting runners usually aren’t fully cranked. We haven’t seen her since, but a few recent works here are pretty sharp, and the price is certainly interesting.

R10

Takeschargesmiling
Tetsu
Gatsby

#3 TAKESCHARGESMILING (3-1): Did a lot of dirty work last time, when he was a close-up second. There are a lot of horses here who don’t seem to want to win, and this five-time winner at least has some toughness to him. A similar type of trip in the finale could get him the money; #6 TETSU (6-1): Hasn’t won since April of last year, but he did make up plenty of ground late to be third in the race my top pick exits. He’s another “dream to own, tough to bet” horse, with 29 combined seconds and thirds in 60 starts to date, but there is some speed signed on and that could set things up for him; #1 GATSBY (7/2): Was a 9/5 favorite last time out, but faded after setting the early pace. Rob Atras does tend to move horses forward, and his best race could win this, but this barn also saddles my top pick, and that’s the Atras trainee I want given that he beat this horse by more than three lengths a few weeks ago.

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $985.50

As Richard Migliore said on Thursday’s NYRA broadcast, when you accumulate seconds and thirds at Saratoga, it’s frustrating. He was referring to jockeys, but as handicappers, we’ve all had bouts of the dreaded disease known as seconditis, and mine has been present since the start of the meet.

It’s gotten so severe that I got a text message from a fellow Pink Sheet handicapper after I shockingly won a photo finish with Miztertonic in Thursday’s fourth race. It’d be nice to finish strong and put a bow on a summer that’s been…challenging, to put it mildly, for several reasons.

THURSDAY’S RESULTS: This section got a shelter from seconditis, as best bet Perfect Shot never looked like a loser in the eighth. $40 in bets returned an even $206, thanks to a $30 win bet and a winning $5 exacta with runner-up Catherine Wheel.

FRIDAY’S PLAY: We’ll go to the seventh, where I really like #4 SYSTEMIC CHANGE and I’ll maintain Thursday’s betting strategy. I’ll have a $30 win bet on that one and key him in $5 exactas with #1 MARGIN OF AIR and #5 MANTA REY.

TOTAL WAGERED: $40.

SARATOGA SELECTIONS AND ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Systemic Change, Race 7
Longshot: Brocknardini, Race 9

R1

Fourth and One (MTO)
Cristobal
Three Thirteen

#7 CRISTOBAL (4/5): Didn’t run badly in his debut, when he was wide and finished third last month. He adds blinkers at second asking, retains Flavien Prat, and looks tough to go against in the Friday lid-lifter; #4 THREE THIRTEEN (9/2): Set a fast pace in the same race my top pick exits and blew the turn before dropping out. He’ll likely be the one dictating terms early, and if he’s gained maturity, perhaps he could break through at second asking; #8 MAKE A PREDICTION (6-1): Was one paced in his debut for a barn whose first-time starters often need a race to get going. He was wide that day and is another that may move forward given a start under his belt.

R2

Bourbon Breeze
Tricky Temper
Princess Madison

#6 BOURBON BREEZE (4-1): Gets Lasix back after a pair of efforts against stakes company, and it’s not like she ran terribly against those foes. Her early-season races on Lasix were strong, and Irad Ortiz Jr., who likely had several options in this spot, lands here; #5 TRICKY TEMPER (9/5): Was a good second behind a much-the-best winner in a stakes race last time out, and she’s another dropping in class. Three of her four career wins have come at the Spa, and she won a New York-bred stakes race at this route last summer; #2 PRINCESS MADISON (7/2): Was probably too far back last time, when she finished a distant third after taking quite a bit of betting money. She wants to be close to the pace, and that’s a trip she should sit in this spot for a barn that’s started to heat up of late.

R3

Iron Orchard
Shakti
Angel Gift

#3 IRON ORCHARD (4/5): Never looked like a loser in her debut, which she won by more than five lengths with plenty in reserve. I’m not quite sure what she beat that day, but she’s been working well since and seems like the one to beat in the Seeking the Ante; #5 SHAKTI (7/2): Also went wire-to-wire in her unveiling, and that day’s runner-up came back to win at next asking. This barn’s first-time starters often need experience, but she seems pretty talented and could still have room to improve; #1 ANGEL GIFT (5-1): Didn’t draw a great post for her running style, but may be the lone closer in a race full of early speed. She was 2-1 in the Grade 3 Adirondack, where she may have lost all chance at the break, and perhaps a bounce-back effort is in the cards.

R4

Quick Hammer
Peek
Bold Endeavor

#7 QUICK HAMMER (2-1): Hasn’t run since an April clunker and returns for a bottom-level tag. His lone try at a mile was an impressive two-back score against what was probably a better group, and if he’s ready to go, he and Irad could be tough to beat; #1 PEEK (7/2): Was third at this route for a slightly higher tag last month and could appreciate the slight class drop. Flavien Prat sees fit to ride back, and while the rail draw isn’t ideal, he has at least shown some speed; #4 BOLD ENDEAVOR (3-1): Was second at this level last month and cuts back to a distance where he’s recorded five wins and 16 top-three finishes in 24 of his 50 career outings. The new barn has struggled at this stand, but this 9-year-old gelding is ultra-consistent, and his usual effort would give him a chance in here.

R5

Rice entry
Dialbolico
Wecallemfuncoupons

RICE ENTRY (4/5): Both #2 TARPAULIN and #2B TIOTE could win this, and they make a powerful 1-2 punch. Both were claimed earlier this summer after less-than-ideal trips, and the Ortiz brothers see fit to ride; #4 DIALBOLICO (6-1): Didn’t run well first off the claim last time out, but he’s a closer and that race didn’t have much in the way of early speed. There is some of that signed on here, and he ran a few OK races downstate earlier this season; #5 WECALLEMFUNCOUPONS (8-1): Comes back to dirt after a failed turf experiment and drops down in class, both of which work in his favor. He had enough zip to break his maiden in a tough spot at Churchill way back when, and a Finger Lakes outfit bringing along the local rider always makes me look twice.

R6

Academia (MTO)
Amicable Farce
Actis

#6 AMICABLE FARCE (3-1): Debuts for Chad Brown and sold for $300,000 at Keeneland last year. This daughter of Not This Time is out of multiple stakes winner Rubilinda, a daughter of the great Frankel who won on debut. She’s bred to be both talented and ready to go at first asking and represents powerhouse connections; #3 ACTIS (8-1): Merits a look at a bit of a price after chasing a next-out stakes winner in her unveiling going shorter. Her pedigree says she wants this two-turn trip, as her dam has previously thrown two stakes winners that did their best work going long; #5 CELEBRITY WARRIOR (9/2): Makes her debut for Todd Pletcher and is another with plenty of bloodlines. Dam Guana has also thrown Rumble Inthejungle, a European 2-year-old that won a Group 3 and placed in a Group 1 as a juvenile.

R7

Systemic Change
Margin of Air
Manta Rey

#4 SYSTEMIC CHANGE (4-1): Exits a key race against better competition, one that was won by a solid horse in Gilmore and has already produced two next-out winners. There also seems to be a lot of early speed in here, which should produce a race shape friendly to his late-running style; #1 MARGIN OF AIR (3-1): Won at this level and route in July and was claimed by a sharp outfit that hits at a high clip with new acquisitions. Irad rides back, which is a plus, and while others in here may be quicker early, perhaps horse and rider can work out an ideal stalking trip; #5 MANTA REY (4-1): Hasn’t won in a while but ran well to be second last time out. Like my top pick, he’s a closer in a race that seems to boast a few who want to go early, so he should be going the right way late.

R8

Cagliostro
Money Supply
Mama’s Gold

I’ve only done this once this meet so far, but I can’t say I have a strong opinion here. This is a very deep, challenging event, one that prompted me to hit the “ALL” button on my podcast when analyzing the late Pick Four. If you’re playing multi-race exotics, go as deep as you can here.

R9

Brocknardini
Spinning Colors
Awesome Czech

#6 BROCKNARDINI (10-1): Put it all together last time out for her first win in quite a while, and I think her morning line price would make her an overlay in a strong rendition of the Yaddo. Early speed is sometimes scarce in turf routes, but there’s a fair bit in here, and if this one’s found her form, she could be ready to capitalize on the potential she’s flashed a few times; #4 SPINNING COLORS (7/2): Is one of a few that figure to be forward early on, and she’s gotten very good of late. She was a close-up second in a similar stakes race last time out behind a runner that won again at next asking, and of the likely pace factors, this is the one I most prefer; #2 AWESOME CZECH (6-1): Has three wins and a third in four local starts and is ultra-consistent. She found herself on the lead last time out, which isn’t common for her, but she won anyway over a horse that found the winner’s circle next time out.

R10

Alexis Zorba
Nano Man
Holding the Line

#4 ALEXIS ZORBA (7/2): Takes a big drop in the Friday finale after picking up minor awards in two prior local starts this summer. He’s just 1-for-19 with eight seconds, but this is a much, much weaker group than the ones he’s been running against, and his early speed makes him a legit wire-to-wire threat; #8 NANO MAN (8-1): Ran second at this level and route last month despite a bump at the start. His turf sprints are far better than the other races on his sheet, and one of those efforts was a win here last summer. If my top pick doesn’t want to put away his rivals, I think this one has a big chance at a square price; #11 HOLDING THE LINE (6-1): Hasn’t run since December, but ships in for Wesley Ward and attracts Frankie Dettori. At one time, he was thought of enough to be a 4/5 favorite in a stakes race, and other than my top pick, he looks like the only other serious speed in this turf sprint.