SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (7/18/20)

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $980

Cheap plug time: At the start of the whole COVID-19 thing, I started the “Champagne and J.D.” YouTube show with my friend J.D. Fox. We’ve put together four months of shows with a great lineup of guests, and we’re proud of what we’ve built.

To check out this week’s show featuring TimeformUS figure guru and longtime friend Craig Milkowski, as well as analysis of today’s late Pick Four sequence, head to my Twitter page (@AndrewChampagne) or search for “Champagne and J.D.” on YouTube. Our goal is to put together content horseplayers of all types will enjoy during what’s been a stressful time for everybody. I think we’ve done that, and I hope you give it a listen. If you like what we’re doing, hit the “subscribe” button so you don’t miss any of our weekly uploads.

FRIDAY’S RESULTS: My Pick Five play was rendered null and void by the surface switch in the finale. Remember: Wagers given in this space assume turf races are run on that surface.

SATURDAY’S PLAY: Once again, I have a reasonably-priced Pick Five ticket, so I have to take a swing at it even though I usually don’t play those tickets. This time, I’ll go after the early sequence. My 50-cent ticket starting in the opener reads as follows: 3,5,6 with 1 with 7 with 2,5,6 with ALL. I’m banking on getting two prices home in the final two races of the sequence, which we’ll need to provide value if my two short-priced singles are the goods.

TOTAL WAGERED: $31.50

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Yaupon, Race 7
Longshot: Me ’n Sap, Race 11

R1

Mo Mischief
Holland
Repo Rocks

#3 MO MISCHIEF: Fetched $500,000 earlier this year and has every right to be a good one. He’s by top sire Into Mischief, hails from the barn of Todd Pletcher, and boasts a series of strong gate drills ahead of his unveiling in the Saturday lid-lifter; #5 HOLLAND: Didn’t do much running first time out at Churchill, but he didn’t have a great start and perhaps he needed a race. Improvement is logical at second asking for strong connections; #6 REPO ROCKS: Has been working very quickly for Bill Mott, who isn’t known for having horses fully-cranked first time out. History says he might need a race, but if the early money is in, watch out.

R2

Mr. Kringle
Zipalong
Battalion

#1 MR. KRINGLE: Has been running against far better competition and looms large in this spot, assuming it stays on turf. He was last seen chasing multiple stakes-winner Decorated Invader in the Grade 2 Pennine Ridge, and anything close to his third-place effort that day will make him tough; #7 ZIPALONG: Took to turf routing like a duck to water with an easy score downstate against maiden claimers. This is a much tougher spot, but it’s entirely possible he’s doing what he’s wanted all along; #4 BATTALION: Beat maiden claimers last time out at Gulfstream and figures to be prominent early. John Velazquez hops aboard and could have him in a strong position going into the far turn.

R3

Money Moves (MTO)
Decorated Invader
Gufo

#7 DECORATED INVADER: Is a logical favorite off of four wins in his last five starts. He strolled home in the Pennine Ridge, and he’ll likely be a similarly-short price here against what looks like an overmatched group; #5 GUFO: Gets a class test after four wins in a row, including one in the Grade 3 Kent at Delaware Park. Beyer-wise, he’s not far behind his stablemate, and the Clement barn certainly holds a powerful hand here; #6 EVER DANGEROUS: Might be a pace play in here given the likely race shape. There isn’t much gate speed signed on, and this one could inherit the early lead by default at a price.

R4

Lady by Choice
Jump for Joy
Archumybaby

#2 LADY BY CHOICE: Goes second off the layoff and first off the claim for Mike Maker here and hasn’t run a poor race in more than a year. Her tactical speed is a plus, and in a spot where I think the likely favorite is very beatable, she could present real value; #6 JUMP FOR JOY: Hasn’t won since this meet last year, but she likes Saratoga and goes second off the layoff after just missing in a similar spot downstate. Jose Ortiz rides back, and it’s not hard to see her taking a step forward; #5 ARCHUMYBABY: Is a fun horse to root for, having won 13 of 40 lifetime starts and banking more than $460,000 the hard way. She beat several of these runners last time out and has proven tough to beat in stretch battles.

R5

Vicarage (MTO)
Conglomerate
Summer Tune

#4 CONGLOMERATE: Is bred to be a good horse and makes his debut for Chad Brown. He’s by top turf sire Lemon Drop Kid and out of a stakes-winning mare with a strong pedigree and several classy full siblings, so it won’t be surprising if he’s ready right off the rip; #3 SUMMER TUNE: Has run well in a pair of prior starts and was third in his first time going long at Monmouth. The barn has been cold this year, but it does seem like this one’s headed in the right direction; #10 RED FLAG ALERT: Showed speed in his debut downstate over a yielding turf course. That early zip could prove useful on the inner turf, and Franco riding back for George Weaver is a solid sign.

R6

Rip It
Girl Dad
Catman

#1 RIP IT: Has one of the best pedigrees on the grounds. He’s by Tapit and out of Grade 2 winner Riposte, a half to Grade 1 winner Powerscourt. Riposte’s dam is also the second dam of the legendary Frankel, so if this one can’t run, it’s not due to a lack of bloodlines; #9 GIRL DAD: Raced greenly in his debut at Belmont but showed interest late and made up ground. I think he could step forward at second asking, though two turns is certainly a question mark; #5 CATMAN: Makes his debut and is another with a strong pedigree. He’s inbred to the dam of sire Kitten’s Joy, and his female family has lots of class. His dam is a half to multiple Grade 1 winner Exotic Wood, who threw stakes-winning turfer Key to Power.

R7

Yaupon
Cucina
The Sicarii

#1 YAUPON: Won his debut last month at Churchill, and that proved to be a salty race. Third-place finisher Savvy came right back to graduate at Keeneland, and this one doesn’t seem to have landed in a particularly strong race for the level; #5 CUCINA: Had a very wide trip last time out on turf at Belmont and comes back to dirt for Bill Mott. He was fourth in last year’s Grade 3 Sanford and tried Grade 1 company at Woodbine after that, so there’s some back class here; #6 THE SICARII: Has done his best work here at Saratoga and would benefit from a pace meltdown. He hasn’t run since March, but the recent strong drill at Belmont is encouraging and he’ll likely be a big price.

R8

Creative Style
Hoffenheim
Musical Heart

#3 CREATIVE STYLE: Is my top pick in a befuddling race solely because I have to have one. He’s won two of his last three starts, though, and he’ll be the one to beat if he can stretch his talent around two turns; #1 HOFFENHEIM: Hasn’t won in two years, but has run in some pretty tough spots. His race last time out was off a bit of a freshening, so it’s not hard to see some improvement coming here at a bit of a price; #6 MUSICAL HEART: Comes back to dirt after a failed try on turf against higher-level claimers. He cruised in an off-the-turf race at Gulfstream, and a repeat might be enough in a race where I have zero conviction (if you’re playing the late Pick Four, the “ALL” button might be your friend).

R9

Set Piece
Noble Indy
Digital Age

#6 SET PIECE: Ran in several big spots overseas a year ago (including the Group 1 2,000 Guineas) and flashed lots of talent in his U.S. debut. He inhaled a classy field at Churchill and should get a more solid pace to run at second off the bench; #4 NOBLE INDY: Has proven dangerous at this level and distance on turf, with two wins over similar foes in the past year. He’ll be part of the pace, for sure, and this is a much softer spot than the stakes race he exits where he simply went too long; #7 DIGITAL AGE: Disappointed when second at 6/5 in his comeback race, one he had every right to win if he was good enough. That wasn’t the first time he failed to pass horses late, and that’s concerning, but the Chad Brown trainee has back class and was a good second in a $1 million race here a season ago.

R10

Paris Lights
Altaf
Antoinette

#6 PARIS LIGHTS: Has blossomed since shifting to two-turn routes with a pair of impressive wins at Churchill. The recent bullet drill hints that she’s still in good form, and I think she’ll be in great shape with a stalking trip behind horses that may not want to go this far; #3 ALTAF: Seems like this race’s lone stone closer. She does take a class jump out of the maiden ranks after a score in Kentucky, but it’s not like this came up as a strong Grade 1, and the race could set up for her; #2 ANTOINETTE: Is a classy sort that runs well on dirt and turf. She’s won one stakes race, finished third in three others, and may provide some value as the “other” Bill Mott trainee.

R11

Top of the Mint
Quick Return
Me ’n Sap

#10 TOP OF THE MINT: Goes second off the layoff for Mark Hennig, who has strong numbers with similar stock. He came running late to be beaten only a length in his first start in more than 10 months, and logical improvement would make him formidable; #3 QUICK RETURN: Was second in his debut, which came against a short field downstate. However, the 61 Beyer Speed Figure he earned stacks up well against this group, and Carmouche sees fit to ride back; #6 ME ‘N SAP: Boasts an improving workout pattern for a sneaky barn that can pop at a price with first-time starters. There are no monsters here, and if he runs to the most recent work, he could stand a chance at blowing up the tote board.

SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (7/17/20)

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $980

Handicappers in the Saratoga media may work for different publications and outlets, but we’re the same breed and many of us are friends. Every year brings with it attrition in the ranks due to retirements or budget cuts, and it’s always tough to see someone go, for whatever reason.

Bill Heller was the longtime handicapper at The Daily Gazette. He’s written several books on Saratoga, and he always treated me with respect in my limited dealings with him. I found out Wednesday that he had retired, and I was sad to hear it.

Bill and others like him are a link back to when being the leading handicapper across all media at Saratoga was a special, special thing to everyone involved (to me, it still is). I hope Bill enjoys his retirement, and I hope the handicappers that are left do right by him and how he approached his duties to his craft and his readers.

THURSDAY’S RESULTS: On a mess of an opening day card, I made a mess in both the pick box and the bankroll section. Candy Tycoon never had a chance after stumbling badly out of the gate, so I dropped $20.

FRIDAY’S PLAY: I usually don’t play Pick Fives, but the late one can be attacked with an economically-friendly ticket, so I’ll fire away. My 50-cent wager starting in the sixth goes as follows: 2,8 with 2,3 with 3,6 with 5 with 1,3,5,6,10,11.

TOTAL WAGERED: $24

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Indian Pride, Race 9
Longshot: Justintimeforwine, Race 5

R1

Prioritize (MTO)
Value Engineering
Bundibunan

#6 VALUE ENGINEERING: Hasn’t run a bad race to this point and came back running off the bench when victorious downstate. The added furlong is a bit of an unknown, but the pedigree hints this shouldn’t be a problem, and a repeat of his last-out effort would make him tough; #5 BUNDIBUNAN: Ran well going long on turf late last year, including a fourth-place finish in a rich stakes race at Kentucky Downs. He may need a livelier pace up front to be at his best, though, as he wants to sit back and make one run; #2 CAN’THELPBELIEVING: Hasn’t run in more than a year and hasn’t won since the 2017 Sky Classic at Woodbine, but has been working well for Graham Motion and may inherit the early lead by default. This isn’t an easy task first off a long layoff, but he could lead them a long way and come away with a piece of it.

R2

Dawn’s Early Light
Brunate
Imperio D

#1 DAWN’S EARLY LIGHT: Looms large in a race without much proven form signed on. His race off the bench downstate was fine, and he’s been working well since shipping up here after that performance; #10 BRUNATE: Settled for second against similar at Belmont after a less-than-ideal start. He’s shown improvement since coming back to the races earlier this summer, and the recent bullet drill looks pretty good; #11 IMPERIO D: Is the bigger price of the two Rudy Rodriguez trainees and was third in the race my second selection exits. He was fourth behind a next-out winner here in his debut last year, and he does have some tactical speed.

R3

The Rock Says
Ghost Game
First Rate

#4 THE ROCK SAYS: Will be asked to know his role in his first start for new trainer Robertino Diodoro, who does excellent work with horses first off the claim. He’s burned a lot of money, but the stretch-out to two turns could help him lay the smack down on this group (if you had “day two” in the “first wrestling reference” pool, you win); #5 GHOST GAME: Has stepped forward in each of his four starts and is protected first off the claim, which I see as a sign of confidence. He’s bred to love two turns and could come running late at a price; #3 FIRST RATE: Ran well in his first start away from Jorge Navarro last month at Gulfstream. He tries two turns on dirt for the first time, but his running style and pedigree says that shouldn’t be too much of an issue.

R4

Persian Queen
Leaveuwithasmile
Pick Up the Fone

#3 PERSIAN QUEEN: Goes back to the barn of Carlos Martin after trying tougher in two races at Churchill. The most recent effort was fine, and the first-out win here last summer indicates that she’ll have no problem with the surface; #2 LEAVEUWITHASMILE: Takes a big drop in class second off the bench for a capable outfit. She got pretty good last fall, winning three of four at Laurel, and she’ll get plenty of support at the window; #4 PICK UP THE FONE: Moved forward for Todd Pletcher last time out when wiring a weaker field at Gulfstream. She figures to be on or near the lead, and when this barn gets a horse on the right track, they tend to stay there.

R5

Too Early (MTO)
Justintimeforwine
Sandro the Great

#8 JUSTINTIMEFORWINE: Has had a lot of chances, but sure looks like the only speed in an otherwise paceless race. Kendrick Carmouche is a talented speed rider, and I think he could go slow early and have plenty left late at a big price; #10 SANDRO THE GREAT: Is bred up and down to go long and turf and didn’t run badly when fifth off the layoff. Going 10 furlongs off the bench isn’t easy, and improvement is certainly logical; #7 SCUTTLEBUZZ: Had every chance last time out when closing into a very fast pace. That he didn’t get up is a red flag, but there’s plenty of pedigree to suggest he’ll go two turns. His dam was stakes-placed going long on the grass, and Jonathan Thomas can win with stretch-outs.

R6

Big Thicket
Coach Villa
Vintage Hollywood

#8 BIG THICKET: Chased a classy runner earlier this month and is wheeled back quickly by Rudy Rodriguez. He’s run well on short rest before and seems to catch a less-imposing group here; #2 COACH VILLA: Likely needed his last-out effort, when he never fired in his first start since February. His form over the winter at Aqueduct, however, was solid, and his late-running style could be a benefit if they go quickly early on; #7 VINTAGE HOLLYWOOD: Hasn’t won since coming east last fall, but has run well against open claimers in the past. He could relish the slight cutback in distance for a smaller barn that must be respected.

R7

Noor Sahara
Passing Out
Blowout

#2 NOOR SAHARA: Is one of four entrants for trainer Chad Brown in this year’s De La Rose and looks like the most imposing runner. Her prior connections saw enough in her to try the Group 1 Prix de Diane Longines, one of the most prestigious races for turf distaffers in Europe, and Irad Ortiz, Jr., sees fit to ride back; #3 PASSING OUT: Chased next-out Jenny Wiley winner Rushing Fall in the Grade 3 Beaugay downstate and got some black type with a third-place finish. She’s done her best work going two turns, and I think she’ll relish a return to that sort of route; #9 BLOWOUT: Seems like the main speed and is another part of the Chad Brown contingent. She’s been off since October but has back class and could be tough to catch if she’s left alone and ready to run.

R8

Lady Lawyer
Turf War
Lady Worthington

#3 LADY LAWYER: Wouldn’t have been too out of place in the De La Rose and looms large for the tag team of Chad Brown and Joel Rosario. Her U.S. debut last month was solid, and she should sit a perfect stalking trip just off the speed; #6 TURF WAR: Won a listed stakes last year at Belmont, but hasn’t been seen since October. She has a powerful late kick and may be the one they have to hold off late if she’s fully-cranked; #5 LADY WORTHINGTON: Sure looks like the main speed, and Wesley Ward’s track record with speedy turf sprinters is unimpeachable. She hasn’t run since February, but she’s run well fresh in the past and could be ready at a price.

R9

Indian Pride
Risky Mandate
Joy Epifora

#5 INDIAN PRIDE: Cruised home in her 2020 debut last month at Belmont and showed real potential before going to the sidelines last year. She broke her maiden here at first asking last summer by eight lengths, and her usual race would make her a formidable favorite; #2 RISKY MANDATE: May have been best in her return race at Churchill and is another that hasn’t done much wrong. She was third in last year’s Grade 2 Prioress here last summer, and she’s got a win at today’s seven-furlong distance as well; #6 JOY EPIFORA: Wasn’t disgraced in her U.S. debut, when she ran second going a mile in Kentucky. She ran in some of Argentina’s biggest races a year ago and won two Group 1 events, and she’s been flying in several recent works at Keeneland.

R10

Cold Hard Cash (MTO)
K. K. Ichikawa
Frozen Account

#1 K. K. ICHIKAWA: Gets my reluctant top pick in a tough finale. His debut wasn’t bad, and he’s eligible to move forward with a start under his belt and the addition of Lasix; #10 FROZEN ACCOUNT: Merits a look in his first start on the grass given his pedigree. He’s by Central Banker and out of a Malibu Moon mare, which means he has every right to improve with the change in surface; #5 DIANNESIMPAZIBLE: Likely needed his 2020 debut off of a six-month layoff, and trainer Rudy Rodriguez’s horses tend to improve second off of long layoffs. With his route-heavy pedigree, two turns shouldn’t be an issue.

SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (7/16/20; OPENING DAY)

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,000

A lot has changed in the last 10 months, and this summer features a far, far different Saratoga meet. However, I’m grateful to be back for another go-round in The Pink Sheet, both in the pick box (where I’ll look for a fifth Pink Sheet title in seven years) and with this bankroll section (where I’ll look to grow an initial $1,000 stake between now at Labor Day). Quick reminder: All plays in this section assume races carded for turf stay there, and early scratches void the action of the horses involved.

All of my stuff will be available on AndrewChampagne.com far in advance. If you have a question or something for me to potentially write about, tweet me at @AndrewChampagne. My DM’s are open, and I respond to almost everything that gets sent in. It’s a tough time for a lot of people (self included; rest in peace, Nana), and I’ll gladly do anything I can to brighten the spirits of my readers.

THURSDAY’S PLAY: I’ll focus on the ninth race, the Grade 3 Peter Pan. #5 CANDY TYCOON hits me as a square price anywhere close to his 5-1 morning line price. I’ll key him in $3 exactas above and below #3 MODERNIST and #4 CELTIC STRIKER, and play Candy Tycoon to win and place for $4 as well.

TOTAL WAGERED: $20.

SELECTIONS/ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Astoria Kitten, Race 7
Longshot: Grudge, Race 10

R1

Guy Caballero
Grit and Glory
Jerome Avenue

#6 GUY CABALLERO: Hasn’t run in a while but drops down the class ladder for aggressive connections. He was third in a Grade 2 just last year, and he’s shown he can run well going two turns; #2 GRIT AND GLORY: May get a solid setup at a bit of a price. There’s a good amount of early speed in here, and he could be in line to pick up the pieces in his second start off the bench; #7 JEROME AVENUE: Makes his first start for new trainer Rob Atras and is another taking a drop in class. He was third going two turns over this oval late last year, and Atras has hit at a 23% clip of late with new acquisitions.

R2

Scanno
Leading West
Magic Mojo

#10 SCANNO: Might provide a bit of value in here given the field size and runners from higher-profile barns. He and rider Javier Castellano may inherit the early lead given a relative lack of early zip, and he might not have to improve much off of a recent third-place effort downstate; #1 LEADING WEST: Drops in for a tag for the first time after running second several times against straight maidens. On paper, he makes sense, but I’m wary of him given the likely race shape, which may not favor his late-running style; #7 MAGIC MOJO: Might be worth another shot after a dud first time out. He didn’t have the best start in that race, and he’s bred to be far better than what he showed in his unveiling.

R3

Glass Ceiling
Palace Avenger
Carrizo

#4 GLASS CEILING: Is a pace play for me in a confounding five-horse event. Unlike many of her rivals, she doesn’t necessarily need the lead in order to run well, and her three wins around one turn are also encouraging; #3 PALACE AVENGER: Came back running when second at Churchill in her 2020 debut. Her 85 Beyer Speed Figure may indicate she’s turned a corner, although she may have opposition up front early on; #1 CARRIZO: Hasn’t won since September of last year, but she does her best running at the Spa. She’s won twice in three local starts, and she could easily outrun her odds.

R4

Valletta
Palace Duchess
Gran Chemin

#5 VALLETTA: Cuts back in distance in her first start for Carlos Martin and gets a nod based on experience. Her most recent workout was very solid, and the presence of Javier Castellano is a plus; #4 PALACE DUCHESS: Was bet down to 1/5 odds in her debut last April at Keeneland, when she ran third and went to the sidelines. Her workouts have been consistent, and Wesley Ward can get horses ready to run as well as anyone; #7 GRAN CHEMIN: Was asked to go two turns in her lone career start to date. That’s never an easy thing to do, and that race produced several stakes-quality horses. Perhaps she needs a run off the bench, but if she’s ready, she’s got a shot at a nice number.

R5

Dark Money
The Caretaker
Thorny Tale

#5 DARK MONEY: Has won five of his last eight starts dating back to last summer and recently cruised to a three-length win over allowance foes downstate. He’s one of only a few in here not exiting the same race on June 19th, and his usual race makes him the one to catch; #8 THE CARETAKER: Won that June 19th event in his first start for Tom Morley and returns to a track where he’s won two of four starts. If they go fast early, he’s one of the ones who stands to benefit, and he should be doing his best running late; #7 THORNY TALE: Beat winners for the first time in his 2020 debut and takes a step up in class here. However, Castellano rides back, and there’s a chance he’s figuring things out as a 4-year-old.

R6

Brees Bayou (MTO)
Ward entry
Propensity

WARD ENTRY: Either entrant can win, but I prefer #2 MR EVERYTHING, who’s been working lights-out downstate and may relish the cutback in distance. #2B GRANDMAS FAVORITE is also a contender, having run several OK turf sprints before an extended hiatus; #9 PROPENSITY: Drops down in class after many opportunities against straight maidens. Perhaps the drop wakes him up, but his best races have come going longer elsewhere, so I’ll try to beat him; #6 NO BAD DAYS: Is worth a look underneath at a big number. He ran into multiple stakes winner Decorated Invader in his lone turf start and may relish a return to the surface against a weaker field.

R7

Astoria Kitten
Summer At The Spa
Ava K’s Girl

#1 ASTORIA KITTEN: Has the speed to utilize the rail to her advantage going long on the inner turf. That could prove dangerous in a race without much other early speed, and she has the talent to lead this field every step of the way; #9 SUMMER AT THE SPA: Is an ultimate hunch play that will benefit if a rival goes with my top pick. She won her debut and was second in her first start off the bench last time out; #6 AVA K’S GIRL: Flew late to be fourth going shorter in her return to the races last month. She won her debut over this surface, and if she can stretch out to two turns, she’ll have a chance to hit the board at a big price.

R8

Beautiful Memories
Hopeful Princess
Queen Arella

#3 BEAUTIFUL MEMORIES: Couldn’t have been much more impressive when romping by 10 lengths in her debut at Churchill Downs. She comes in off of two straight five-furlong bullets at Churchill, and she’ll be a legitimate, short-priced favorite; #8 HOPEFUL PRINCESS: Was shipped to the barn of Steve Asmussen after winning her debut in May in fast fashion. The local work tab is promising, and there’s precocity up and down in her pedigree (by Not This Time, out of a More Than Ready mare); #6 QUEEN ARELLA: Had an adventurous trip in her debut, when she overcame trouble to win by four lengths. This spot is a significant step up for her, but Joel Rosario signs on and her closing at first asking may hint at some potential.

R9

Candy Tycoon
Modernist
Celtic Striker

#5 CANDY TYCOON: Has chased some of the best 3-year-olds in the country of late and most recently ran second behind the classy Rushie at Oaklawn. This spot can be seen as a class drop, and it’s tough to argue with the Pletcher/Velazquez duo in a Saratoga stakes race; #3 MODERNIST: Had nothing left late when seventh in the Grade 1 Belmont, but he might have needed that race off a bit of a freshening. He’s a definite contender if he runs back to his winter/spring form, which included a win in the Grade 2 Risen Star; #4 CELTIC STRIKER: Beat just one rival in the Easy Goer, but may be worth a look. All three of his wins have been in wire-to-wire fashion, and he might well make the lead in here. If he does, he could get brave and hang on for a piece of it.

R10

Doll
Grudge
Shannon’s Girl

#2 DOLL: Gets a reluctant nod in a perplexing Opening Day finale. Her first start for new trainer Brad Cox was solid, as she ran a close-up second when returning to turf. A step forward will make her tough, but she’s run second a lot, and that’s not encouraging; #4 GRUDGE: Drops in for a tag second off the layoff and almost certainly needed her seasonal debut. She won going short on turf at Gulfstream three back, and nothing says she can’t step forward here; #12 SHANNON’S GIRL: Draws a terrible post but is a consistent check-getter that can run on well late. She wasn’t too far behind Doll last time out, and she was an OK second at this route last summer.

Pebble Beach Tore My Face Off, And I Don’t Care

MONDAY, JULY 6
11:45 am-ish

I sauntered off the sixth green at Pebble Beach Golf Links on a beautiful summer day several steps ahead of the rest of my group. This twist on social distancing was by design, because I needed a minute.

I stood on the seventh tee box after filling our caddy in on what I was feeling and why I needed some time. Looking down on the green from about 100 yards away, preparing to play one of the most picturesque par-3 holes in golf, my eyes started welling up.

I waited as my dad, he of numerous club championships in upstate New York and a 4.8 handicap index to match, hit a wedge about 30 feet past the hole.

“I’d buy that right now if I could,” I thought to myself as I put my yellow Callaway, colored to make life easier for my caddy when shots inevitably went askew, down behind the tee markers.

I took a deep breath as I addressed the ball, hunched over due to the whole “I’m 6’5” and golf isn’t a sport for giant people” thing. I bent my knees, brought a three-quarter swing back, and came through the ball.

We’ll leave that shot in the air for a little while. In this case, the journey to Pebble Beach and the emotions it brought out, rather than scores written on a card, is what mattered more than anything else.

– – – – –

My dad was supposed to go to Scotland in May on a journey that would include 18 holes at St. Andrew’s. He was pumped to cross several things off of his bucket list…and then the coronavirus screwed everything up.

After planning a journey to Northern California, Dad did some digging. The research led to a shocking discovery: Pebble Beach was not requiring its traditional two-night hotel stay in order for guests to play one of the most famous courses in all of golf.

Following a few phone calls, Dad and I had a 10 am tee time for his trip out here. I was excited, but also scared out of my mind. As I’ve written, I enjoy playing golf, but I’ve never been anywhere near good at it. Occasionally, I’ll slap a few good holes together, but between my busy schedule and the whole “I’m way up here and the ball’s way down there” thing, it’s just never been something I’ve been able to improve at.

Before his arrival in the Bay Area, I took my clubs out for a spin and tried to work out the kinks. I was encouraged by my first outing, when I shot 44 on a par-34 course near my apartment, but visits to several 18-hole layouts varied from “humbling” to “where is my face and why did this force-carry decide to rip it off?”

When Dad got here, we played Hiddenbrooke, a public course in Vallejo (about an hour north of Oakland). It’s a beautiful Arnold Palmer design that has hosted several LPGA Tour events, and my banana-like tee shot was in no way prepared for it. After recording an 18-hole score of 108 (and a liberal 108 at that), plans were made to hit the driving range on Sunday.

Due to either uncommon foresight or common hoarding (both frequent behaviors within the Champagne family), we had several drivers laying around. One of them, a Taylor-Made, had an adjustable clubhead, and one of the employees at the range had a screwdriver. After moving the setting very far to “draw,” with a clubhead that may as well have been at a right angle, I at least had some general idea where the ball was going.

That enthusiasm waned when Dad decided we needed to be awake at 5:30 am for the drive to Monterey the next morning. How am I supposed to apply what I learned and swing a golf club correctly, I thought, if my consciousness was still laying on my couch? Alas, that was a battle I was never going to win. The alarm, predictably, came early, and off we went to Pebble Beach.

– – – – –

We left my apartment at 6:23 (I know because Dad complained we were eight minutes late). The first win of the day came when Bay Area highways, known for being some of the worst in the country, were miraculously mostly empty save for a trouble spot near San Jose caused by debris in the road. We got from parking spot to parking spot in almost exactly two hours, which allowed for plenty of wandering around before our tee time.

As Dad went into the shops, I found myself looking at the wall of plaques honoring winners of professional and amateur events held on the course. I couldn’t help but wonder, “what the heck am I DOING here?,” as I read about the exploits of Tiger Woods, Phil Mickelson, Gary Woodland, and a host of other golf legends.

Before going to the putting green, Dad and I watched a foursome tee off. The last player was a kid, maybe 10 or 12 years old, and Dad remarked how the kid may not be old enough to appreciate Pebble Beach. I countered by saying, “you watch, the kid probably has a better swing than I do.” I was proven correct when he hit a decent little drive about 180 yards down the right side of the fairway, one I’d have gladly bought from him had he been willing to sell.

I deliberately kept my goals low. In summary, there were only a few benchmarks I wanted to hit.

– Don’t be the worst player our caddy had ever worked with (mission accomplished).

– Take two shots to get out of as few bunkers as possible (this happened twice, but it could’ve been worse).

– Don’t leave the ball on the hill separating the fairways on the sixth hole (I hit one of my best shots of the day to get a hybrid over the hill and near the green).

– Par the seventh hole (we’ll get to that).

We met our caddy, Mike Z., and our playing partners on the first tee. I warned him, “you won’t need to help my dad much, but I STINK.” He laughed, and he would wind up doing an amazing job for us. Pro tip: If you play Pebble Beach, spend the money for a caddy. They’ll help you around, provide a wealth of knowledge (especially around the greens), and can even act as photojournalists taking photos and videos throughout your round. I can’t possibly recommend Mike Z. any higher, either. He added to the experience in a way we’ll always rave about.

Dad striped his tee shot down the first fairway, and then it was my turn. Somehow, I put together a controlled series of motions resembling an OK golf swing. While the yellow Callaway had left-to-right spin on it and found the right rough, it gave me a clear second shot into the green and was far from the worst tee shot the starter would see that day.

In an odd, welcome plot twist, I actually scored pretty well early. I bogeyed the first three holes, but made several 15-foot putts to do so, including one on the third hole that took one or two trips around the cup before falling in.

I made the turn in 53, with only three lost balls (coming on the fourth, eighth, and ninth holes). Despite wasting a great opportunity by dumping a wedge into the hazard after my best drive of the day on the ninth hole (a low stinger that caught a downslope and kept rolling), I considered the front nine a complete and total success. This continued when I made par on the 11th hole (albeit on a first-tee mulligan when I grounded one just barely off the tee box; I then hit a decent drive up the fairway, a good 7-iron to within about 25 feet, and two-putted). At that point, visions of a 99 danced in my head.

And then the back nine at Pebble Beach ate my lunch.

The 14th hole is when the day took a turn for the worse. After a drive into the right rough off the tee, I hit two solid hybrids to within about 60 yards of the hole. Unfortunately, that left me with one of the most daunting shots on the golf course: An uphill half-wedge, with no green to work with and a bunker staring at me with a menacing, “COME AT ME BRO” look.

I attempted to hit a half-wedge, but was intimidated enough to hit a three-quarter wedge that went long-left and flew the green. Several chunks and bad putts later, I slinkered off to the 15th tee box, where I hit one of my few push-slices of the day. Somehow, it stayed in bounds, and I wound up with a punch shot that I’d hoped to send between two trees and out to the front part of the green. I made great contact and missed one with ease, but the ball clipped an extending branch of the second one and went straight down into the ground.

“Five feet left and it’s perfect,” I grumbled on my way to making 7.

Still, I had a chance at a decent score (by my subterranean standards) as we headed to the 17th hole. I wound up playing most of the long par 3, as I grounded the tee shot short, put a second shot into the bunker short of the green, took two to get out, hit out of the bunker LONG of the green, and made a less-than-graceful quadruple bogey.

After taking a few pictures on the 18th tee box, though, I exorcised the demons with a beautiful drive up the right side of the 18th fairway. I hit a decent second shot, too, but chunked my third and wound up directly behind a tree adjacent to the green. Once again, I made 7, and I wound up signing for a 111 while Dad found ways to grumble about turning a 77 into an 84 (I hate him sometimes).

I did, however, say that scores didn’t matter as much as other things. This is where we teleport back to the seventh hole.

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– – – – –

As you may know, my grandmother, Carolyn Hake, passed away earlier this year after contracting the coronavirus. Between being 3,000 miles away and the pandemic not allowing for funerals or memorial gatherings of any kind, I never really got a chance to say goodbye to her, and it’s eaten at me for a while.

Many years ago, she got to play Pebble Beach with my grandfather (my mom’s dad), who at his peak was a scratch golfer. The story I was told went like this: They got put with two guys who wanted no part of playing with a woman. Nana countered as only she could, kicking their butts all the way around the golf course. The highlight came on the seventh hole, when she hit a wedge in and made par.

This is why keeping myself composed on the seventh tee box was hard. It’s why I wouldn’t have been surprised if the ball went anywhere between 10 feet off the tee box or halfway to Oahu, and why I needed to be careful in ensuring the golf club wasn’t shaking in my hands as I took it back.

I can only speculate, but chances are the wedge she hit was probably far more graceful than mine. While I hit it somewhat fat, though, the ball came off the center of the clubface and went to the right of the flagstick, where I had aimed in hopes of accommodating an ocean breeze that naturally subsided when I made contact.

“GO!,” I yelled, hoping it wouldn’t land in a bunker shy of the green.

The yellow Callaway obliged. It hit the green and rolled just off the back fringe, and golfers all over the course probably heard me yell, “FINE!,” from under the golf-themed mask my girlfriend bought me.

We got down to the green, and I was the first to putt from my lie in the rough. I had the speed perfect, but the ball stopped a foot or two to the right of the cup. Dad gave me the par putt and I took the ball away, pumping my fist as discreetly as I could while my eyes welled up again.

Dad lined up his birdie putt right as I’d recomposed myself. Like lots of putts at Pebble, it wasn’t easy. It went left to right, with a few feet of break and ocean waves crashing in the background.

He hit the putt.

There was no discretion necessary in the reaction.

There were a lot of special moments in that round. I’ll remember putting before the round and the practice green magically emptying for us for 10 or 15 minutes. I’ll remember the pictures we took and how lucky I felt to be with my father in those moments. I’ll remember remarking to my caddy, “these putts DO break the same as in the WGT video game!” I’ll remember going up to people working in various spots, from marshals to food and drink venders to salespeople in the shops, and saying, “you must REALLY love your job.” I’ll remember all of them saying that, yes, they did indeed love their jobs.

The seventh hole, though? That’s burned in my brain, and it’ll stay there as long as I live.

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I never got the chance to say goodbye to my grandmother. I suppressed the feelings from that for quite a while, simply because there’s no playbook to dealing with that stuff and there was no acceptable way to deal with the grief and frustration that I felt. Doing something she did as well as she did it isn’t going to heal everything, but it’s as good as I was going to do. Sometimes, that has to be enough.

I debated throwing my ball into the ocean after the hole was over, but I decided against it. After all, the ocean would have many more chances to deliver a souvenir to her, and that’s what it did on the next hole. After hitting a really nice 4-iron to just shy of the cliff’s edge, I took a 5-wood, attempted what Jack Nicklaus calls the greatest second shot in all of golf…and pushed that yellow Callaway dead right into the Pacific Ocean.

“Close enough,” I though to myself as I put another ball down.

The score really didn’t matter. Everything else did.

Thanks, Dad.

Pleasanton: Opening Day Pick Four Analysis (6/19/20)

Friday is Opening Day at Pleasanton, and I’m excited for the 2020 meet to get underway. Pleasanton is one of my favorite places in racing. When the Alameda County Fair is rocking and rolling, this track is as good a place as any to go for a reminder of the charming aspects of the sport we all love and care about. Add in that I’ve become friends with many of the people at CARF over the past few years, and seeing them up and running becomes that much sweeter.

The fair is obviously not happening, and seeing Pleasanton without fans is going to be weird. However, I’m pretty pumped for one of my favorite tracks to be up and running, and I’ll be posting whatever content I can as the meet rolls on through June and July.

We’ll kick things off with a look at the late Pick Four on Opening Day. It’s a seven-race program, so the sequence starts in the fourth. The folks in the racing office did a really nice job putting together the card on short notice, and I think there are opportunities to make some money. Let’s take a look!

RACE #4: The first leg is a maiden claimer for older fillies and mares, and I think the morning line man got this one right. #5 SWEETENER figures to be a heavy favorite in her second start off the layoff. She showed speed against pricier company off the bench at Golden Gate, and anything close to her early-2019 dirt races would likely crush this group.

However, there’s a lot of early speed that could go with her early, so I can’t single her. With the possibility of the race collapsing, I need to have #1 BRITE TAN on my ticket as well. She’s been running at Los Al, which isn’t a surface that favors closers, and she’s got some back form there. Kyle Frey signing on is encouraging, and her best race could be good enough to win this at a price.

RACE #5: This race houses the horse that may be the shortest price of the sequence. He’s not infallible, but I can’t get too cute, as I do think he’s the most likely winner and I’m confident enough to single him.

That’s #5 DOUBLE TIGER, who drops in class off a layoff for trainer Jamey Thomas. Unlike many of these runners, though, he has form on dirt, having never finished worse than second in three starts on the surface. Thomas has had a lot of success this year, and this one has run Beyer Speed Figures that tower over those of much of this group.

Double Tiger is 9/5 on the morning line, and I think he’ll go off shorter than that. If he doesn’t win, I lose, and I imagine many other tickets go up in smoke as well.

RACE #6: Part of the reason I singled Double Tiger is that he looks like the class of the field. The other part is that I don’t have a clue in the sixth, a race without much experience signed on, and one where I can’t have any confidence in the shorter prices.

#6 CAROLINA MIA has run well at Golden Gate, but there’s nothing saying she wants dirt. The same can be said for #1 GET’EM TIGER and #2 SWEET REGARDS, and those three, in some order, will likely be the first three betting choices in this seven-horse field.

I’m hitting the “ALL” button. I wish I could narrow this field down, but between the overall inexperience and the lack of dirt form, I have no thoughts on this race other than that I want maximum coverage. With that said, I’ll buy the race and hope we get a price home.

RACE #7: We finish things off with a claiming event for older fillies and mares. I thought this was another competitive race, and I’m taking a bit of a shot by going against #7 DANIEL THE DREAMER, the morning line favorite. She’s taking a big drop in class, but she’s 0-for-4 on dirt, and those races came at Grants Pass Downs against suspect fields.

My top pick is #4 GIFTY, who hasn’t done a lot wrong to this point. She broke her maiden at second asking, and then found starter allowance company too tough when seventh in her first try against winners. However, she was beaten less than four lengths, and that day’s winner came right back to win again. I wish there was more dirt form on the page, but anything close to the last two efforts would make her pretty tough.

I’ll also use #5 STREUSEL and #6 ZELAIA. The former is a closer in a race full of early speed and should come rolling late, and the latter won on dirt at Turf Paradise earlier this year and is another dropping in class. One other note: If you want to spend a bit more money than me, #2 MAUI MAGIC may be live at a price. I love when runners are protected from the claim off of long layoffs, and she ran reasonably well twice on dirt last summer. She may want longer than this distance and this came up pretty salty for the level, but she may have more of a chance than the odds board will indicate.

R4: 1,5
R5: 5
R6: ALL
R7: 4,5,6

42 Bets, $21