Analysis, Selections, and Tickets: Kentucky Derby Preps and Pick Four Sequences, PLUS: A STRANGE Week

We’ll get to my analysis of the three Kentucky Derby prep races, and the Pick Four sequences that contain them, shortly. However, I first need to start out by saying…well, by saying that it’s been a REALLY weird week.

It started with a small right-wing blog picking up a letter that I wrote to WRGB, the Sinclair-owned TV station in my former hometown of Albany, N.Y., criticizing their airing of the company-wide message they were roundly panned for last week. This was not a political stance, but one coming from the point of view of a journalist with a conscience (yes, we exist). Naturally, this got contorted to their desired degree of spin, and that made for a number of interesting conversations with people.

As strange as that was, the truly bizarre stuff happened Thursday. Those of you who truly know me know the kind of person I am. However, over the past 13 months, I’ve had some fun on Twitter occasionally morphing into a character that took several forms depending on what was being discussed. Most of the time, I was puffing my ample chest out over a successful season at Saratoga, begging for Beemie Award consideration (hi, Jason), or otherwise doing my best to troll people I liked.

Some people picked up on what I was doing right away (oddly, most of them are fellow diehard professional wrestling fans who appreciate someone cutting a good promo!). However, thanks to several people I like and respect a great deal (likely much more than they want me to, in all honesty), I caught wind that my perception among certain horse racing people was that of a pompous buffoon who actually believed his own hype. That necessitated the below tweet, which you’ve likely seen by now.

If you think, for one solitary second, that I truly believe my own hype, you’re misguided. What you’ve seen over the past 13 months was a gimmick constructed thanks to a fateful conversation that I’ve mentioned before on this website. I came to the conclusion that, if certain people were going to believe I was an unbelievably strong personality (to the point of that being anything but a compliment), I was going to have as much fun with it as I could.

The “128 winners at Saratoga” stuff? That was inspired by “Married With Children” protagonist/American hero Al Bundy’s rants centering around “four touchdowns in a single game.” Since I’ve mentioned that, I feel the need to include this.

You’re welcome. Anyway, the “best to never win a Beemie Award” stuff, and all the posturing that happened there? That was entirely the result of much too much time spent watching professional wrestling with arrogant bad guys who always seemed to have the best lines at their disposal. With said “strong personality” at my disposal (and by the way, can you tell that was a REALLY bad choice of words by an unnamed person yet?), it was natural to portray this character as a rebel.

If you fell for that and thought that was a 100% accurate representation of me in real-life, that means I probably did a heck of a job with the gimmick, but it also means that I need to pull the curtain back. As I’ve told a few people over the past few days, I’m a slightly introverted nerd who has no problem with self-deprecating humor. I’m incredibly fortunate to have my job and the professional respect that I have for doing what I do, and not a day goes by where I don’t consider myself genuinely blessed to be in that position.

As the tweet above says, if what you’re reading is analysis, or my thoughts on a race, that’s me, as I am. If you think that the person pandering for Beemie consideration or doing a Santino Marella victory celebration is actually who I am, know that it isn’t. Many of you out there got the gist of what I was doing (including a few people that have done a lot for me simply by existing), but enough of you didn’t, so I needed to expound on that before we went further.

Now that we’re 700 words into this article, let’s dive into some Saturday analysis! We’ve got three Kentucky Derby prep races scheduled, and they all come within fun late Pick Four sequences at their respective tracks. I’ll take a look at all three, and we’ll go in alphabetical order of tracks, so we’ll start in New York.


$0.50 Pick Four: Race #8

R8: 2,3,4,5,6,9,11
R9: 3,4,5
R10: 5,9
R11: 2

42 Bets, $21

As a heads-up, this ticket assumes that the 11th race stays on the turf. If it doesn’t, this ticket is rendered obsolete, as I don’t have a clue who wins if it’s run on the main track. However, for now, it’s a fun sequence that I think you can play for cheap.

The Grade 1 Carter Handicap kicks things off, and I thought this was the toughest race of the sequence. If you want to buy the race, I understand, but I only went seven-deep so as to keep the cost of the ticket down (if it chalks out, it won’t pay much). #2 ARMY MULE and #11 AWESOME SLEW figure to take most of the action, but I needed to use several others as well. That includes many logical contenders, as well as 20-1 shot #6 PETROV, whose recent slate looks much better if you can bring yourself to draw a line through that clunker two back. This is a flexible runner campaigned by savvy connections, and I needed him on my ticket.

The ninth is the Grade 3 Bay Shore for 3-year-olds going seven furlongs. #4 NATIONAL FLAG and #5 ENGAGE will take much of the money, but I thought #3 JUSTAHOLIC was intriguing at his 8-1 morning line price. He’s stepped forward in every start to date and topped a decent Todd Pletcher trainee last time out at Tampa. This barn has done terrific work with a limited number of runners, and it’s interesting to see them show up in this spot far from home.

The 10th is the Grade 2 Wood Memorial (and seriously, can we begrudgingly admit that the graded stakes committee got it right with the downgrade?). #5 ENTICED will be a popular single off of his win in the Grade 3 Gotham, and he could easily make it two in a row. However, I also needed to use #9 VINO ROSSO, who wants every bit of this distance and may have bounced last time out off of a career-best effort two back. We may get a bit of a price on him today, and it’s not inconceivable to think he’s sitting on a big effort.

The 11th is the aforementioned turf race, and if it stays on the grass, I think #2 ASTOUNDING will be tough to beat. He’s been running against much better horses since going to Jason Servis’s barn in 2016, and this spot represents significant class relief. His most recent effort wasn’t good, but that came on dirt off of a layoff. This is the route he wants, and if he gets a good trip, I think he’s going to be formidable (even at a short price). If he doesn’t win, I don’t know who does.


$0.50 Pick Four: Race #7

R7: 2,5,7,10,12,13
R8: 2,8,10,11,12
R9: 1
R10: 4,10,11

90 Bets, $45

A few notes before we start: First of all, this ticket is obviously contingent on Keeneland running this card in the first place. I have no insider knowledge, nor have I ever claimed to, but if the winter storm barreling towards Kentucky is as bad as some forecasts are claiming, this could get dicey. Additionally, if the first leg comes off the turf, my ticket is irrelevant.

Good? Good. We’ll kick it off with the Grade 2 Shakertown, which has drawn a field of 14 turf sprinters. #13 DISCO PARTNER is the 5/2 morning line favorite, and I think he can win, but he’ll need to negotiate a trip from a tough post in his first start since the Breeders’ Cup to do so. I’m using many others as well, including #12 BOUND FOR NOWHERE, who’s 3-for-3 in America and was a credible fourth in last year’s Group 1 Commonwealth Cup at Royal Ascot. If you toss the effort two back at Deauville, he more than fits with this group, and I’ve got a tough time believing this Wesley Ward trainee will be 20-1 when the gates are sprung.

The eighth is the Grade 1 Madison, which is shaping up to be a tremendous race. It’s drawn Grade 1-quality fillies and mares and a field of 13, which makes things very tricky. I went five-deep and used most of the main contenders. My top pick is #11 AMERICAN GAL, who I think may have been the best 3-year-old filly in the country last year when healthy. She’s been off since a dominant performance in the Grade 1 Test, but she’s been working well for Simon Callaghan and has handled shipping east with aplomb in the past. If she’s right, I think she’ll be tough.

The ninth race is the Grade 1 Ashland, and it features one of the top 3-year-old fillies in the country. That’s #1 MONOMOY GIRL, who figures to be one of the favorites for next month’s Kentucky Oaks. There isn’t much other early speed in the race, and I think she’ll be able to dictate the terms all the way around. I respect #2 ESKIMO KISSES, but Monomoy Girl seems like a different kind of filly, and she’s an easy single for me.

We’ll finish with the main event, as the 10th is the Blue Grass, which doubles as the race that I analyzed for this week’s DRF Derby Countdown Weekly Guide. You can find my thoughts there (as well as my preferred single-race wagering strategy), but to summarize, I think #4 KANTHAKA is very appealing at a price. I’ll also use likely favorite #11 GOOD MAGIC, and I’ll defensively use #10 FREE DROP BILLY, just in case he returns to the form he showed last year at Keeneland when he won the Grade 1 Breeders’ Futurity.


$0.50 Pick Four: Race #9

R9: 3,6
R10: 3,5,6,7,9
R11: 3
R12: 1,2,4,6,7,10

60 Bets, $30

I’ve got a gripe to address before we start. Santa Anita has three stakes races being run outside of this Pick Four sequence (not counting the Arabian race that ends the day), which ends with an optional claiming event. It’s still a juicy sequence that could pay more than it should given the possibility of several short-priced winners, but why the lack of an all-stakes Pick Four on a big day? I’m sure there’s a logical business reason for this, but from a fan’s perspective, this doesn’t make a lot of sense to me.

Anyway, onward and upward. The ninth is the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby, and I’m not getting cute. I’m using #3 BOLT D’ORO and #6 JUSTIFY, like pretty much every other ticket on the planet. Simply put, I think these are two of the top four 3-year-olds on the road to the Kentucky Derby right now, and I can’t rationalize throwing anyone else in.

I’m spreading in the 10th, the Grade 2 Royal Heroine. I would really like #6 ENOLA GRAY and #9 SASSY LITTLE LILA if it was solely one of them running, but while I think either could win, the scenario of them speeding away early and getting run down is certainly possible. As such, I’m using a number of closers, including #3 BEAU RECALL, who was the very last horse I threw onto the ticket. I don’t like that she seems to enjoy running second or third, but this race sets up for her, as it does for fellow closers #5 THUNDERING SKY and #7 MADAME STRIPES.

I wish I could give you an interesting alternative to #3 MIDNIGHT BISOU in the 11th, the Grade 1 Santa Anita Oaks. However, I can’t do that. I think she may be the best 3-year-old filly in training right now, and the way she’s moving forward with every start leads me to believe she’s sitting on a big effort. The ample early speed in here is a plus, and I will be stunned if we get 6/5 on her at post time. If we do, I think that’s a considerable overlay.

As mentioned, an optional claimer ends this sequence, and it’s a tough betting race. If you’ve got the budget to buy the race, by all means do that. I settled on going six-deep, and while I used likely favorites #1 LASEEN and #2 PANTSONFIRE, I’m not in love with either. If I had to make a top pick, it’d be #7 THE TULIP, who lost her action two back and should be rolling late at a bit of a price following her win last time out. I also have to use 15-1 shot #4 MS WAKAYA, who’s run into some sharp horses in her prior tries going long on turf. She’s got some tactical speed, which isn’t abundant in this field, and I wouldn’t be shocked if apprentice jockey Franklin Ceballos boots her to the front early and sees how long she can stay there.

Analysis, Selections, and Tickets: Holy Bull Day, Gulfstream Park (2/3/18)

Gulfstream Park’s Saturday card is a really fun one to handicap. In addition to the Grade 2 Holy Bull (which awards 10 Kentucky Derby points to the winner), there are also four other graded events on the docket, and the 12-race card contains three different Pick Four sequences. I’ve got three tickets I’ll dive into, and my best bet of the day ends one sequence and starts another. Let’s get to it!

$0.50 Pick Four: Race #2

R3: 1,4,12
R4: 2,5,6
R5: 6

72 Bets, $36

There’s a Pick Five sequence that starts in the opener, but I want absolutely no part of it. From a handicapping perspective, the second race is a mess, and the first one’s not much clearer.

I’m buying the aforementioned second race, a starter/optional claiming event with many horses that seem to take turns beating one another and a few horses dropping in class. It’s tough to get excited about any of the eight runners in this race, and I’m hitting the “ALL” button, hoping a price kicks this off.

The third is a maiden claiming event going 7 1/2 furlongs on the grass. #12 CABIN JOHN is the 9/5 favorite on the morning line, but the post is dreadful given the short run to the first turn. I’m using him defensively, and my top pick is actually #4 GOING TO THE BEACH, who had a wide trip last time out and should sit a better trip in this spot. I’ll also take a swing and use #1 CREST OF EDEN, a horse bred to love the turf and one that should be forwardly-placed early on.

The fourth is the first graded stakes race of the day. It’s the Grade 3 Swale, and while it only drew a six-horse field, some promising horses showed up. #2 TRICKS TO DOO and #6 STRIKE POWER both come in off of impressive victories, and I’m using both, but don’t sleep on #5 PIVEN, especially given the likely race shape. Unlike many of these runners, Piven has shown an ability to rate, and that could be extremely useful given the seven-furlong distance.

I can afford to spread early, because my best bet of the day runs in the fifth. That’s #6 LITTLE BALTAR, who ran a gigantic race in defeat last time out. He broke from the far outside post in a field of 11, and because of that, he lost ground and had to make a premature move. He was beaten a half-length that day, but here, he gets a favorable draw and should be rolling late over his favorite turf course beneath regular rider Nik Juarez.

$0.50 Pick Four: Race #5

R5: 6
R6: 1,2,4,5
R7: 3,4,6,9,11
R8: 1,2,3,10

80 Bets, $40

The way I’m constructing these tickets, if Little Baltar wins, I could have a big day. He’s a single on this Pick Four ticket as well, and that’s good because the other three races are far from easy.

The sixth is the Grade 3 Sweetest Chant. Trainer Chad Brown has two in here, and if he wins, it’ll be his seventh consecutive score in this race. I’m using both #4 DATA DEPENDENT and #5 SALSA BELLA, and I’ll throw in the 1-3 finishers from last month’s Ginger Brew as well. #1 THEWAYIAM was the winner that day, but #2 ANDINA DEL SUR raced incredibly wide in what was just her second career start, and she’s certainly eligible to improve off of that effort.

We’ll stay on the turf for the seventh, a tricky maiden event. Many of these horses are debuting in this spot, and my top pick is actually a first-time starter. That’s #3 MARCH TO THE ARCH, who’s bred to be a good one. His dam was a Group 2 winner on turf, and his second dam is a full sister to Kentucky Derby winner Animal Kingdom. If he runs to his pedigree, 8-1 is a big overlay, but given all the unknowns in play, I felt a need to spread.

As if that race wasn’t tough enough, the eighth is another maiden race with many firsters. Nine of the 11 entrants are debuting in this spot, which makes for a very tough payoff leg to this sequence. #3 WISELY narrowly gets my top selection. He’s been working very well, and recently drilled with Cache, who was an impressive maiden winner recently. If his morning form comes with him, Wisely could very well be a horse to watch. If not, well, thankfully I’ve got the room to spread a bit.

$0.50 Pick Four: Race #9

R9: 1,2,6,9 (13)
R10: 3,4,6,8
R11: 6,7
R12: 1,7

64 Bets, $32

This sequence has a guaranteed pool of $500,000, and chances are they’ll soar past it. I like this sequence a fair bit, as the field sizes are large and we could see a nice payoff even if four logical horses win.

The ninth is an optional claiming event, and my top pick is a price. That’s 8-1 shot #6 J. S. CHOICE, who I’ve been chasing for a while. He faltered badly last time out, and it’s safe to assume something went wrong because we haven’t seen him in five months. He’s been working well of late, and a repeat of either of his races two or three back against strong, stakes-quality horses would be good enough to put him right there at a nice number. One note: If #13 CONQUEST SANDMAN draws in off the AE list, I’d recommend using him, as his best race is good enough to get him home.

The first of three straight graded stakes races that end the card is the Grade 3 Forward Gal, and I’m against a favorite. #7 MISS MO MENTUM’s three wins came on turf, in an off-the-turf event, and over a very sloppy track. 9/5 seems like way too short a price, and I’ll try to beat her. #3 HEAVENHASMYNIKKI has long been highly thought of by her connections and has run like it, while #4 TAKE CHARGE PAULA won three stakes races last year and #6 VIOLENT TIMES and #8 MY MISS LILLY were both impressive debut winners.

The third leg is the Grade 3 Dania Beach, and #6 UNTAMED DOMAIN figures to be one of the shortest-priced favorites on the card. He was beaten just a length in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf, which has proven to be a very live race. He’ll be a popular single, but I also have to use likely second choice #7 GIDU, who ran into a nice horse in his debut and came back to smash maidens at second asking in a very fast time. In case Untamed Domain isn’t fully-cranked (which is possible since the connections have mentioned Derby preps could be in his future), I want some security.

We’ll finish off the card with the Grade 2 Holy Bull. It’s unfortunate that #11 MISSISSIPPI will likely scratch, as I thought he was the best horse in the race (and one that would’ve provided a bit of value to boot). With him out, I can’t get too creative, as I think #1 ENTICED will be tough to beat. Everything about him says he’ll get better as he gets older, and he draws very favorably compared to other horses with some speed. I’ll also use #7 TIZ MISCHIEF, who was second to Enticed last time out and has been working well since arriving in Florida.