BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $988

What happened on Sunday at Saratoga was disgraceful, and everyone involved bears some of the blame. By all accounts, there were multiple issues with the 2-year-old race initially carded at a mile on the turf with a large field, and it probably never should have been written. This race, however, was in the condition book weeks ahead of time, and acting as though jockeys or agents simply didn’t read or consider the conditions until a few days before the race seems naive, at best.

The race got changed, the Pick Six sequence was cancelled, and those who spent hours poring over a Pick Six carryover got the shaft. Between stuff like this happening far too often, CAW’s running rampant at tracks from coast to coast, decisions being made that often make very little sense to the average enthusiast, and several venues closer to closing than we’d like, it’s been hard to be a horse racing fan at times.

If there’s a silver lining, it’s that the NYRA/FOX broadcast of the events didn’t run from the issue. I thought Richard Migliore’s explanation was spot-on, and as a player, I appreciated those on the desk empathizing with viewers and admitting that something rotten had occurred. In an industry where the problem is rarely the problem, and much more often people discussing the problem (ask me about Del Mar sometime), the hosts, producers, and crew didn’t insult their audience the way other parts of the industry did. That’s not nothing.

SUNDAY’S RESULTS: Kiamba was nowhere in the second race (and I couldn’t have given you the winner without the “ALL” button). I dropped $40.

THURSDAY’S PLAY: I’ll lean on #5 TIZMARKUS in the third, and the double starting there and finishing in the wide-open fourth seems to have some value in it. I’ll single Tizmarkus to start $10 doubles that end with #1 ARABIAN POWER and #7 MOUNT SOPRIS, and in $5 doubles that end with #4 HE’S A PIPER and #9 FRANKLIN DELANO.

TOTAL WAGERED: $30.

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SARATOGA SELECTIONS AND ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Tizmarkus, Race 3
Longshot: Mount Sopris, Race 4

R1

Mr Percy
Lord Flintshire
Famous Figure

#1 MR PERCY (9/2): Hasn’t won in quite a while, but he had some excuses last time out and was a very good second at this level two back. In addition, he’s shown he can run well without Lasix, which is a major question mark for some of his rivals in the Jonathan Kiser; #7 LORD FLINTSHIRE (6-1): Almost certainly needed his last-out effort, which came off an 11-month break. He goes back to the steeplechase ranks off of that two-mile tightener (yes, a two-mile prep!), and if he runs back to his race over fences last April, he’s a player; #6 FAMOUS FIGURE (2-1): Was an impressive winner last time out and may go favored, but I have some reservations. He ran on Lasix for the first time that day, and he won’t get that medication here. His overseas form is fine, and he could win, but he may need to replicate the last-out effort to do it, and that’s no cinch.

R2

Term Premium
In Front Runner
Irish Goodbye

#2 TERM PREMIUM (2-1): Showed potential in his first start downstate when he rallied from 11 lengths back to nearly get the job done. He draws well for powerhouse connections here, and while closers are sometimes at a disadvantage in races out of the Wilson chute, any sort of a logical step forward makes him the one to beat; #6 IN FRONT RUNNER (4-1): Was a one-paced fourth in his debut at Gulfstream, which came going two turns in the slop. That wasn’t an easy spot, for several reasons, and while I’d like him more with a more inside-drawn post, he’s another eligible to move forward; #4 IRISH GOODBYE (5/2): Rallied to be second last time out after breaking very, very slowly and may appreciate some added distance. He wasn’t flattered by that day’s winner not running particularly well last week, but this one did have an excuse that day, at least.

R3

Tizmarkus
Lucky Dude
Princip

#5 TIZMARKUS (5/2): Has run well in a pair of starts for this barn and cuts back to one turn, which is probably his preferred trip. He’s got some tactical speed, which helps, and the rider switch to Ricardo Santana, Jr., is a big one; #6 LUCKY DUDE (3-1): Has been consistent the last few years and generally runs the same race every time out. This is probably a tougher group than what he’s been facing at Parx, but Kendrick Carmouche knows him well, and at least we know his form can travel outside Philadelphia; #9 PRINCIP (5-1): Was the beneficiary of a race that completely fell apart last time out. The rider switch to Irad Ortiz, Jr., is notable, and he’d certainly benefit from a fast pace, but that was his first win in a while and he may need quite a bit to go right.

R4

Disparate Impact (MTO)
Arabian Power
Mount Sopris

#1 ARABIAN POWER (7/2): Has a pair of solid seconds since switching to turf for Brad Cox and figures to be the main speed in this two-turn race on the inner turf. Irad has gotten to know him a bit over the last few outings, and he’s likely to be the one they have to catch; #7 MOUNT SOPRIS (10-1): Merits a look at a price. His last-out effort came after a break of nearly nine months, and it’s safe to assume something went wrong two back given the long layoff. His debut here wasn’t bad, he drops in class, and he gets Lasix for the first time; #9 FRANKLIN DELANO (5/2): Is another running for a tag for the first time, and he adds blinkers for Hall of Famer Todd Pletcher. His best race came over this turf course, but his two efforts this year weren’t particularly inspiring and the outside post is a bit of a problem.

R5

Extravaganzoo (AE)
J’ray’s Jewel
Seismic Activity

#13 EXTRAVAGANZOO (4-1): Needs a few scratches to draw in but merits respect if she’s able to run. She flashed genuine speed first time out in a race at Keeneland that featured several strong efforts. This race against New York-breds is almost certainly a drop in class, and she’s certainly eligible to improve with a start under her belt; #4 J’RAY’S JEWEL (9/2): Debuted with a solid second on dirt downstate, but she’s bred for turf and gets it here. This daughter of Oscar Performance and multiple Grade 3 winner J’ray should relish this trip, especially after debuting for a barn whose runners tend to need a race to get going; #5 SEISMIC ACTIVITY (8-1): Debuts for Jeremiah Englehart and sold for $270,000 at auction across the street last year. Her works are fine, and while we’re not sure if young sire Epicenter can throw turf horses yet, her bottom-side pedigree is all-turf (her dam is kin to, among others, Grade 1-winning turfer Bigger Picture).

R6

Ati Girl
Jadorlinija
Pippa Adds

#4 ATI GIRL (5/2): May be entering “now or never” territory in her ninth career start, but her last two efforts at Churchill did show some improvement. She was a close-up second in both spots while showing improved tactical speed beneath Irad, who hops back aboard here; #7 JADORLINIJA (6-1): Picked up a minor award when third in her first try since September last time out. Her pedigree says she’ll love this two-turn trip, and she’s another that could sit an ideal stalking trip a few lengths behind the early speed; #6 PIPPA ADDS (3-1): Is another trying two turns for the first time, and she’s run into some good ones to this point in her career. The last-out runner-up came back to graduate at next asking, which helps her. The question is, does she really want to go two turns?

R7

I’m Worthy (MTO)
English Law
Vintage Vino

#2 ENGLISH LAW (7/2): Gets a tepid nod in what hits me as a pretty wide-open turf race. He drops way down the class ladder for aggressive connections, and while he hasn’t won in a while, he’s also been going against much, much better horses, and inside-drawn speed can be hard to go against on the inner; #6 VINTAGE VINO (4-1): Also drops in for a tag, and this one gets a big rider switch to Irad. He was one-paced when fifth in a pretty fast race for the level last time out, and while I think he may want even more ground, he’s got back form that would make him competitive; #8 SICILIAN DEFENSE (9/2): Runs for a red-hot barn and may be the controlling speed in this spot. Jose Ortiz has ridden him very aggressively in the past, and while there are genuine stamina concerns, it wouldn’t be shocking if he’s the one they have to catch.

R8

Max Money
Gethsemane
Palacios

#6 MAX MONEY (7/2): Tried stakes company last time out and faded to finish a distant sixth. This is a much, much better level for him, and he’ll get to run with Lasix again. The only other time he’s had it was in his two-back score, easily the best race he’s ever run; #5 GETHSEMANE (4-1): Has run consistently well in each of his last five starts across three different tracks. He most recently chased a much-the-best winner last time out at Churchill, and the slight cutback to the Wilson chute may be what he wants; #7 PALACIOS (5/2): Has some strong speed figures but hits me as an underlay at the likely price. His running lines tell a story that says he finds trouble, and outside-drawn closers are sometimes up against it at this quirky route.

R9

Roasted Reds
Force of Mischief (AE)
Island Charm

#6 ROASTED REDS (3-1): Didn’t have an ideal trip first time out in a race several runners in here exit. She was wide that day while rating behind a pretty slow pace. Prat rides back when he likely had some options, and she’s certainly eligible to move forward at second asking; #13 FORCE OF MISCHIEF (9/2): Needs some luck to draw in off the AE list, but drops in for a tag and adds blinkers after showing some speed against better horses last time out. The post won’t be ideal, but if she runs, there’s reason to believe she can improve; #12 ISLAND CHARM (5-1): Is another that lost the post position draw, but she’s been very competitive at this level and was most recently an OK third downstate. She’s got other speed to clear, but if she can somehow get over and minimize the ground loss, she’s another potential contender in the Thursday finale.