horse | Andrew Champagne

Horse Racing Needed Golden Tempo. Now What?

Posted on 10 Days Ago by Andrew Champagne

Many years ago, my first bosses in turf writing, Joe and Sean Clancy, advised us Saratoga Special interns, “root for the story.” It’s a mantra that’s been in my head since Saturday afternoon, when Golden Tempo shot from last to first to win the 2026 Kentucky Derby.

In this case, the story pretty much writes itself. Golden Tempo is trained by Cherie DeVaux, making her the first female conditioner to saddle a Kentucky Derby winner. Jose Ortiz, wearing the famous black and red silks of Phipps Stable, was the winning jockey, and his winning move outkicked that of brother Irad and the highly-regarded Renegade (who nearly overcame a troubled trip from the rail draw).

For various reasons, horse racing Twitter erupted with a rare sentiment: Positivity. It wasn’t just Golden Tempo backers who were thrilled at the outcome. Fans of the sport got to witness something special, and even losing bettors (self included) couldn’t be upset seeing DeVaux celebrate with her family and friends as she worked her way to the Derby winner’s circle. That, in turn, led to something even more rare: I saw losing handicappers hat-tipping, with regularity, in the direction of the sharp bettors who endorsed a victor that paid $48.24 for a $2 win wager.

Even Mike Repole, the owner of the hard-luck runner-up, couldn’t be too upset. In a video put online by Sean Collins of Blood-Horse, he can be seen bear-hugging Irad Ortiz, Jr., and telling him, among other things, “that’s why you’re the best rider in the country.” Repole’s shtick can be hard to deal with sometimes, but in that moment, he felt…different. He didn’t feel like an outspoken “commissioner” butting heads with others. He felt like someone who, even in defeat, had been moved by what he saw.

Being a horse racing fan tends to be a lonely experience, and for good reason. As a pari-mutuel bettor, you’re putting your money into the pools against wagers from everyone else looking at the race. Tempers can run hot, especially on big days. Against all odds, when it came to the biggest race on the calendar, that didn’t happen. Instead of being something for people to scream at each other about, the Kentucky Derby served as a reminder of why most of us got into the game.

Let me be clear: Saturday at Churchill Downs wasn’t all sunshine and rainbows. Two races before the Derby, Japanese invader T O Ellis was greater than 10-1 as the field went into the gate for the Churchill Downs. Mid-race, he dropped all the way down to 5-1, and sure enough, the money proved smart. This was a reflection of a growing problem at racetracks across the country, one explained to the masses in a terrific article written by Yahoo’s Dan Wolken.

(Side note: I’ve been around the racing game long enough to say, with some confidence, that if some racing publications had written that piece, there would be significant repercussions for it. As I’m fond of saying, in horse racing, the problem is never the problem, it’s people talking about the problem.)

Horse racing has its issues, and they’ve been growing impossible to ignore. Horse racing Twitter, never an easy audience to fully satisfy in the best of times, has grown restless, and there are valid points to be made. We don’t breed as many horses, the ones we do breed don’t run as much, horse racing isn’t the only gambling game in town anymore, and activity by CAW groups is, for the most part, being met with a collective shrug from industry decision-makers (some of whom are actively benefiting from said activity on a race-by-race basis). Because of this, the day-to-day product has, at times, suffered, and from an outsider’s perspective, it sure doesn’t seem like much is being done to fix issues affecting every aspect of the industry.

Despite all this, though, there we all were Saturday afternoon, watching Cherie DeVaux be engulfed by family and friends after Golden Tempo completed his circling of the 2026 Kentucky Derby field. I said it at the time and I still mean it: I don’t think horse racing Twitter was ever more positive than after that race. It was a beautiful thing to witness, and it’s a reminder of both what we’re capable of as people and what this game is capable of bringing out of us.

For the first time in 152 years — HISTORY IS MADE!!!

Trainer Cherie DeVaux watches Golden Tempo and Jose Ortiz get up at the wire to win the Kentucky Derby at odds of 23-1.

🎥: Reaction footage owned by America’s Best Racing. @reredevaux | @jose93_ortiz | @PhippsStableFan pic.twitter.com/mnlTQw1sX7
— America'sBestRacing (@ABRLive) May 3, 2026

The question is, how do we take what we saw Saturday and use it for the benefit of the industry? At a time where the sport has seemed to actively seek out negative momentum, there’s potential for forward movement. Let’s capitalize on it. Let’s remember what this game can do and how capable we are of being decent to one another.

Golden Tempo winning the roses didn’t fix everything. Acting like it did is naive, at best. However, to paraphrase a quote from one of my fictional spirit animals, Toby Zeigler from “The West Wing,” in a battle between our game’s demons and our better angels, for the first time in a long while, I think we just might have ourselves a fair fight.

You know, provided we don’t blow it.

2026 Kentucky Derby Selections and Spot Plays

Posted on 12 Days Ago by Andrew Champagne

It’s Kentucky Derby Day, and I’ve got free Kentucky Derby selections and spot plays for Saturday’s card at Churchill Downs.

Yes, the Derby is its own beast, but with 13 other races on tap, there are plenty of opportunities to take stands and cash tickets. That’s what we’ll attempt to do here, and with so much to go through, I won’t waste any more of your time. Let’s get to it!

Race #2: #8 Taptastic (3-1 ML)

He won’t be much of a price, but I like this Steve Asmussen trainee quite a bit. After breaking his maiden in the mud at Oaklawn, he got thrown into the deep end in the Arkansas Derby and didn’t disgrace himself. He was third that day (behind Renegade and Silent Tactic), and it wouldn’t have been too shocking to see him show up in a race like the Pat Day Mile (more on that one later).

Instead, he shows up in a first-level allowance, where he’ll be able to run with Lasix again. He also gets the riding services of Irad Ortiz, Jr., which is a significant move up, and his local works have been just fine. I think he’s very much the one to beat, and while I think we’re more likely to get 3/2 than his 3-1 morning line, he hits me as a single in any of your early multi-race exotics wagers.

Race #6 (Knicks Go): #9 Scotland (20-1 ML)

This was a price I profiled in my recent piece for ABR, and this race revolves around #2 Dragoon Guard. On one hand, it feels like he’s the main speed, and he’s run speed figures in the past that would put him on top fairly easily. On the other, he’s won just one of his last seven starts, lost to several of these runners in those races, and hits me as difficult to trust.

For that reason, I’ll take a shot with Scotland, who likely needed his 2026 debut after a four-month layoff. He ran several sharp races a season ago, when he earned some big checks (including a fairly-close second to Book ‘em Danno in the Forego at Saratoga). He’s shown he’s got the ability to win a race like this; the question is, can he get back to that mid-2025 form?

It’s not a small question to answer, for sure. If he’s just not that kind of horse anymore, that’ll be apparent. However, I’d much rather take that kind of flyer than back a short pice that’s difficult to trust. Here’s hoping this Bill Mott trainee is ready to go second off the bench.

Race #8 (G2 Pat Day Mile): #1 Englishman (3-1 ML)

If you watched this week’s “Drank’n Champagne,” this is no secret (and if you haven’t watched it yet, it’s right there below the introduction!). I think the Pat Day Mile may have the best 3-year-old male on the grounds, and that includes the runners set to go postward in Saturday’s main event.

Englishman was a runaway winner of his debut in September over this Churchill surface. Something clearly went wrong, because we didn’t see him in the afternoon for six months. He came back at Fair Grounds and couldn’t have been much more impressive, coasting home to win by a New Orleans city block and affirming his potential.

His connections had every right to try to rush him to a Kentucky Derby prep. They didn’t do that. This race has been the goal all along, and he’s been working lights-out ahead of this event. I know Bob Baffert trainee #6 Crude Velocity has potential, but I think Englishman is a freak in the making. If he’s anywhere close to the 3-1 morning line price, I’ll be thrilled.

Race #9 (G1 American Turf): #4 Stark Contrast (4-1 ML)

I give the connections of Stark Contrast credit. A few years ago, this owner/trainer tandem had Endlessly, a promising turf/synthetic runner who had never run on dirt. They ran him in the Kentucky Derby, and he hasn’t won since. This year, Stark Contrast had enough points to make the field, but was re-routed here, and while the odds board says it’s a wide-open event, he’s a “lone A” for me.

Simply put, Stark Contrast just hasn’t done much wrong. He’s 3-for-4 on turf, with his lone loss being a second in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf behind much-the-best winner Gstaad. Last time out, he was second to a nice horse again in the Jeff Ruby, where he made a middle move and got outkicked by Fulleffort.

This is absolutely what he wants to do, and the slight cutback in distance should be welcome news. Furthermore, the two others that hit me as interesting, #12 Remember Mamba and #14 Final Score, drew terrible, far-outside posts. Stark Contrast has a lot to like here, and I think the morning line price would represent a significant overlay.

Race #12 (G1 Kentucky Derby): #9 The Puma (10-1 ML) and #14 Potente (20-1 ML)

We may not get the 10-1 morning line price on The Puma, but even if he’s in the neighborhood of 7-1, I don’t think that’s a bad bet. He’s gotten significantly better with distance and experience, and he may still present some value compared to #6 Commandment (who nosed him in the Florida Derby) and #18 Further Ado (who he beat in the Tampa Bay Derby). His pedigree says 10 furlongs is well within his scope, and I think he’s ready to fire a big shot.

Potente, meanwhile, hasn’t run huge figures in California, but this Bob Baffert trainee hits me as live. It feels like Baffert was trying to figure something out in the Santa Anita Derby, where Potente dueled for the lead through solid fractions before fading to second. I think his preferred trip is of the “stalk and pounce” variety, and he should get several targets to run at early. His recent five-furlong drill at Churchill was fantastic, and when a Baffert horse works like that, it’s often a clue the Hall of Famer has one ready to go.

An Airing Of Horse Racing Grievances

Posted on December 19 by Andrew Champagne

This week, for the first time in a while, I talked about the health of horse racing and didn’t like what I saw or how I felt after I did it.

In fact, it happened twice, and I’m not sure what to do about it.

Unfortunately, the state this game is in right now isn’t a good one. Cards in the northeast are being cancelled left, right, and center due to weather (in some instances, weather they’d have run in in the past). Woodbine’s closing day program was abandoned midway through the card, with doubts raised over mandatory-payout wagers. Hastings Park in Canada, meanwhile, announced its immediate cessation of racing after British Columbia decided to stop subsidizing racing with slot revenue, and on a related note, The Stronach Group is gearing up for the second round of a fight to decouple horse racing and slots in Florida.

I’d love to be optimistic, but given the circumstances, it’s hard to find silver linings. Because of that, this was the podcast that resulted over on the On the Wrong Lead network…

I don’t like being negative. In fact, I pride myself on being a realist whose content generally ticks people on both sides of any issue off in equal measure. I’ve found that’s a good doctrine of fairness.

(Writer’s note: There are also the people who get ticked off at my mere existence, and that’s a separate issue. I enjoy pushing the buttons of those people because, hate me or love me, you engage with my content and that’s all one can do.)

(Editor’s addition: Remember, boys and girls, that the opposite of love isn’t hate, it’s indifference.)

(Writer’s addition to the addition: Some folks never learned that lesson, and it shows.)

I don’t want to see horse racing decline, wither, and die. I want to see it thrive, and I’ve actively spent time and energy figuring out ways the industry can do this. Everything I have, I owe to this game and a few people in it who cracked the door open for me, allowed me to do a lot, and gave me the chance to build my career.

Very little of what’s happening now, though, inspires confidence. In addition to the track-related factors above, bettors will soon be taxed on some of their losses, which will undoubtedly chase away some of the sport’s highest-handle players. Many within the gambling industry are lobbying to change this after harsh initial outcry, but that will take significant bipartisan cooperation on at least one piece of legislation within the U.S. House of Representatives and Senate (two chambers…not exactly known for working well together of late).

The annual racing symposium at the University of Arizona, meanwhile, had some real head-scratchers. Craig Milkowski has been a friend of mine for more than 20 years, ever since I was posting to the PaceAdvantage board as an underage player. I love him, but I’d like nothing more than a world where the symposium doesn’t have to do a panel on timing races, one where tracks can start and stop watches at appropriate times (you know, the way every other serious sport in the world does). The CAW panel was what it was. Panels on attracting sports betting crossover had the same empty verbiage we’ve seen for years on end. Everyone seems to agree some sort of change is necessary, but beyond that, the stakeholders involved don’t seem to agree on anything else.

I really want to be positive about this game, the one that, at its best, is the best gambling game around. With all of that taken into account, though…wouldn’t that be delusional?

The show went live earlier this week. On Thursday, another piece of news broke involving Saratoga. That track will host a total of 51 racing days in 2026, between the five-day Belmont Stakes Racing Festival, several extra days in early-July, and the 40 days we’ve come to expect at the Spa.

I feel like it’s too much. I tweeted as such (along with a few things designed to push buttons of the “ticked off at my mere existence” people, and BOY, did that work!), and it sparked a lot of conversation. It’s true that 2026 is the last summer before the opening of the new, renovated Belmont Park, which is set to open its doors in September. Having said that, Saratoga has seen days creep up from 24, to 30, to 36, to 40, and now all the way to 51. What was once “the August place to be,” I’d argue, won’t even qualify as a boutique meet next year.

Last year’s calendar was similar, and the effects were far-reaching. Sovereignty won the Travers, we rolled into the week leading up to Labor Day, and all of a sudden, the track looked and felt dead. What came through my television screen wasn’t just a lower-key atmosphere, but one where people looked like zombies because the energy seemed to be flat-out gone. Everything that doesn’t happen often has a saturation point where, once you pass it, it’s not as special anymore. Saratoga found it last year, and it feels like we’re set to pass it again in 2026.

With that, we come back to what I outlined at the start of this article. I wouldn’t be what I am today, professionally or personally, without this game and the opportunities it’s given me. I don’t want to be seen as overly-negative. I don’t want to feel badly about what’s going on in the sport, and I want to be in a position to celebrate the good in it.

However, let’s be honest with ourselves: There just isn’t much positivity to celebrate right now. I don’t know what any of us can do other than call a spade a spade and keep hoping the ship gets righted…but what confidence do we have that those in power can and will make the correct calls to do so?

I’m asking. I wish I had the ability to answer these questions. I don’t, and it bothers me.

SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll for September 1st, 2025 (CLOSING DAY)

Posted on August 31 by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,080

It’s closing day at Saratoga, and I’m more grateful than ever for a wide variety of people. First, thanks so much to the full-timers behind The Saratogian and The Pink Sheet, who do the best they can in an environment that gets more and more challenging for print journalism every year. Furthermore, my honeymoon lasted until mid-July, and they were very gracious in allowing me to jump in four days late.

Most of all, though, I’d like to thank you, the reader. I’ve kept this pretty quiet, but I got laid off about six weeks ago (talk about burying the lede, right?). It’s been a challenging month and a half or so navigating things, but I greatly appreciate you for sticking with me and reading my content every day. Let’s see if we can end on a winning note. At a minimum, we’ll be profitable for a second consecutive year.

(P.S.: If you’re hiring, I’m an easy guy to find. Either DM me on X/Twitter at @AndrewChampagne, or use the “contact” feature on this site.)

SUNDAY’S RESULTS: Royal Guard had a nightmare trip, checking early and conceding ground while far behind a slow pace. That’s not a recipe for success, and I dropped $60 after scratches.

MONDAY’S PLAY: My opinions get weaker as the day goes on, so I’ll focus on the early Pick Four. My primary $2 ticket starting in the second goes as follows: 3,5 with 6,9 with 5,11 with 1,5. In addition, I’ll play a 50-cent ticket singling #5 TIME TO WIN (a tepid best bet of the day) in the opening leg and provides extra coverage elsewhere. That one goes like this: 5 with 3,4,6,7,9,10 with 2,3,5,7,11 with 1,5. Finally, I’ll have a $15 win bet on Time to Win, too.

TOTAL WAGERED: $77.

SARATOGA SELECTIONS AND ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Time to Win, Race 2
Longshot: Desperate Proposal, Race 4

Oscar’s Hope
Grunge
Scrutinator

#4 OSCAR’S HOPE (2-1): Was bet down to 7/5 in his debut and ran well to be second behind another well-meant firster. Improvement is logical at second asking, and his experience edge over his rivals could make him very tough in the lid-lifter; #2 GRUNGE (6-1): Sold for $260,000 at auction this year and is bred to be a very, very good sprinter. He’s a half to one graded stakes winner and another graded stakes-placed horse, and his female family includes the dams of stakes horses Noble Court and Real Cash, among others; #8 SCRUTINATOR (5-1): Is one of two Todd Pletcher trainees, and this one gets both Irad and a cushy outside draw. That recent gate work was very, very fast, and this outfit has been on fire towards the end of the meet.

Time to Win
Barb
Duration

#5 TIME TO WIN (3-1): Debuts for Chad Brown, attracts Flavien Prat, and has enough pedigree to win on debut. She’s a half-sister to Grade 1 winner Juju’s Map, she sold for $650,000 at auction, and her workouts jump off the page; #3 BARB (2-1): Seems like the main speed, which is always dangerous out of the Wilson chute. He does stretch out to this distance, which is an unknown, but he could also get comfortable up top and forget to stop; #2 DURATION (5/2): Was third in the race my second choice also exits, and I liked him that day. He didn’t really kick on, though, and I think it’s telling this barn’s first-call rider goes to his barn buddy.

New York Scrappy
Makeyourmoment
Pretrial Statement

#6 NEW YORK SCRAPPY (5/2): hasn’t been out of the barn for more than 10 months, but he’s been training well for Mark Casse and catches what sure seems like a weak field for the level. Prat sees fit to hop aboard, and if he’s ready to go off the bench, he’ll be pretty tough; #9 MAKEYOURMOMENT (8-1): Hits me as the main speed in here and could be able to dictate terms from the jump. His last-out effort wasn’t bad, and he may be the one they have to run down turning for home; #4 PRETRIAL STATEMENT (10-1): Had a nightmare trip last time out and probably never had a chance to do his best running that day. I’m willing to give him another shot underneath, especially at his likely price.

Desperate Proposal
Lachaise
Ennis Town

#5 DESPERATE PROPOSAL (8-1): Has a habit of finding trouble, but John Velazquez rode him very, very well two back, when he was second at this level. A few other contenders in here draw terrible outside posts on the inner turf, and a repeat of that July effort may get it done here; #11 LACHAISE (7/2): Would probably be my top pick with a better draw. His return off of a very long layoff at Colonial was a good effort, and there’s every chance he moves forward at second asking if Irad can work out a trip; #3 ENNIS TOWN (8-1): Wired a field of maiden claimers last time out in an off-the-turf event, but the connections may have found something that day. I think he wants to be forwardly-placed, which is never a bad thing on the inner, and Kendrick Carmouche has been riding very well all summer long.

Rice entry
Cocktailsnkringle
Career Risk

RICE ENTRY (2-1): #1 LAST MAN STANDING was claimed off of Todd Pletcher last time out, but he does exit a strong race for the level, as the two horses in front of him both came back to win. I think the cutback to the Wilson chute could help, too, and the significant drop to a $20,000 tag can’t be ignored; #5 COCKTAILSNKRINGLE (8-1): Ran well going a mile three back, and his recent form looks a bit better if you draw a line through the two-back turf experiment. He’s got some early speed and should be a factor early beneath Jose Ortiz; #2 CAREER RISK (4-1): Didn’t run well in his debut and takes a massive drop in class from that event. It’s possible he needed the race and wakes up in here, but it’s also possible these connections are playing the claiming game and looking to sell, and the rail draw doesn’t help, either.

Atenea (AE)
Raynham Hall
Last Call Jenna

#13 ATENEA (3-1): Needs several scratches to draw in but merits a lot of respect if she gets to run. She ran well to be second in her turf debut last time out, and a repeat of that effort may be good enough, even from a far-outside draw; #5 RAYNHAM HALL (6-1): Was wide in her unveiling last month for a barn whose first-time starters usually need a race to get going. It’s been a long summer for this outfit, but Prat sees fit to stay aboard at second asking, and I’m anticipating a step forward; #10 LAST CALL JENNA (7/2): Has a lot of class in her pedigree and wouldn’t be a surprising favorite if the AE’s don’t draw in. She’s kin to eight winners, and her dam is a half to several stakes winners, but those bloodlines do hint she may want longer than this 5 1/2-furlong trip.

Fully Subscribed
Fast and Frisky
Meursault

#3 FULLY SUBSCRIBED (4-1): Debuted with a strong performance last fall at Aqueduct before going to the sidelines. She’s been working well for Chad Brown ahead of his return, and unlike some of the other top contenders, she draws well in this race out of the chute; #5 FAST AND FRISKY (8-1): Has never been off the board in six starts at the one-mile distance. She comes out of New York-bred races to run here, so this is a class jump, but Irad sticks around and at least she’s doing what she wants to do; #10 MEURSAULT (7/2): Was an impressive winner last time out, and the runner-up came back to get her picture taken, but the far-outside post is a big, big blow. Her best race can win this, but between this being her first try against winners and the obstacles the draw presents, I’m leaning elsewhere.

Purloin (MTO)
Curlin’s Angel
Big Beautiful

#9 CURLIN’S ANGEL (5/2): Ran a massive race in her debut before being left with too much to do in her first try against winners. Irad climbs aboard for this one, and she may have plenty of room to improve. If she does, look out; #6 BIG BEAUTIFUL (6-1): Hasn’t run a bad one all year long and figures to be prominent early. She was a good second last time out on Belmont week, and this barn has done very well with limited numbers this summer; #11 WRIGLEYVILLE (5-1): Hasn’t won since last June but has been competitive here twice this summer. Cutting back in distance should help him, and he may be good enough to overcome the far-outside post on the inner turf.

Buetane
Ted Noffey
Curtain Call

#5 BUETANE (2-1): Ships east for Bob Baffert and merits plenty of respect in the Grade 1 Hopeful. He did nothing wrong in his debut, which came back fast, and the most recent work at Del Mar looks fantastic. If his form travels with him, he’s the one to beat; #8 TED NOFFEY (9/2): Was professional in his first-out score here this summer, and this barn will look to pull off the Spinaway-Hopeful double. No trainer has done that since 1997, when Patrick Byrne accomplished the feat with Countess Diana and Favorite Trick, and there’s nothing to nitpick with this one to this point; #1 CURTAIN CALL (9/2): Ran into Obliteration in his debut, but bounced back with a big win in the slop last time out despite a stumble at the start. He comes into this one after two sharp four-furlong drills over fast going, and he’s shown he can overcome adversity.

R10

Asbury Park
Stars and Strides
Leon Blue

#1 ASBURY PARK (7/2): Gets a tepid nod in a wide-open renewal of the Saranac. He had a tough trip last time out, but his two-back score was very sharp, and he figures to benefit from a lot of early speed signed on. The faster they go early, the better his chances figure to be; #3 STARS AND STRIDES (9/2): Took to the turf last time out and got the job done despite racing greenly in the stretch. He’ll have to run without Lasix here, but if Bill Mott has gotten him past the quirks he showed last time out, we could see another step forward; #6 LEON BLUE (12-1): Capitalized on a perfect ride to win the Rick Violette earlier this summer. That was over state-breds, so this is a jump in class, but he’s never been worse than third in six lifetime starts and could provide some value.

R11

Say Yes To Dreams
Twolatebabydoll
Just So Pretty (AE)

#5 SAY YES TO DREAMS (4-1): Didn’t get much pace last time out, in her first start since June of 2024. However, she rallied to be beaten just two lengths. I’m expecting improvement second off the bench in the final race of the 2025 meet; #3 TWOLATEBABYDOLL (7/2): Hit the front in the stretch last time out before being reeled in. I think she has the potential to sit an ideal stalking trip, and that may allow her to get first run turning for home; #13 JUST SO PRETTY (6-1): Was a close-up second last time out and has a chance if she draws in off the AE list. However, she’ll need to work out a trip from a tough post, and she’s also had plenty of chances.

SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll for August 31st, 2025

Posted on August 30 by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,140

Get tied on, because we’ve got 14 races coming up Sunday at Saratoga. My issue, though, isn’t with the volume of races, but with an unfortunate quirk in the routes of those events.

The Jockey Club Gold Cup is the only two-turn dirt race on the card. Meanwhile, four of the other 13 races will be contested out of the Wilson chute (with more to come if any rain rolls in and forces races off the turf). It’s the last weekend of Saratoga, with the best fans in the game congregating on the apron and in the grandstand. Why not add a furlong to at least one of those one-mile races and start and finish at the wire?

For most of this season, NYRA has done a great job moderating the use of the Wilson chute, which we’ve seen too much of the last several years. However, there have been stretches where it gets overused, and Sunday’s one of those days.

SATURDAY’S RESULTS: Ornellaia, unfortunately, scratched out of the Spinaway, which cancelled all my action.

SUNDAY’S PLAY: We’ll head to the ninth, where I’m hoping #9 ROYAL GUARD runs to a pedigree that says he’ll love going to the turf at second asking. I’ll have a $50 win bet on him, and I’ll also single him to finish a pair of $10 doubles that start in the eighth with #2 VETTRIANO and #4 BURNING GLORY.

TOTAL WAGERED: $70.

SARATOGA SELECTIONS AND ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Royal Guard, Race 9
Longshot: Burning Glory, Race 8

Aeolian
Bon Vivant
Endorse

#5 AEOLIAN (4-1): Debuts for Chad Brown and boasts a monster pedigree, being a full sister to Grade 1 winner Tapit Trice. Debuting going a mile is no easy task, but she’s bred to want plenty of distance, and it’s not like there are any monsters in the Sunday opener; #1 BON VIVANT (9/2): Was third going a bit longer last time out and, in an ironic twist, chased home a full sister to my top selection that day. Cutting back to a mile should help her, as her one-turn efforts aren’t bad, but the rail draw is a question mark; #3 ENDORSE (7/2): Ran well to be third behind Ragtime in her debut, but has since thrown a rider and run sixth beaten 19 lengths. A repeat of the debut effort might be enough to get the money here, but I’d be hesitant to, well, endorse this one at a short price.

Chummers (AE)
Twenty One Red
Mr. Bres

#11 CHUMMERS (3-1): Needs a scratch to draw in but merits respect if he gets to run. He did everything but win last time out at a price, and this barn’s runners tend to improve considerably with experience. A step forward could make him tough; #7 TWENTY ONE RED (8-1): Sports a few flashy drills ahead of his debut for George Weaver, who has shined with debuting turf sprinters this summer. Flavien Prat likely had a few options, but he lands here, and this dam’s four prior foals to race are all winners; #4 MR. BRES (7/2): Wouldn’t be a terrible favorite in his debut for Miguel Clement. He’s a full brother to turf winner Coach Case, and a few of his works hint that he may have some potential.

Final Turn entry
Echo Again
Dilger

FINAL TURN ENTRY (7/2): I prefer #1 TOP GUN ROCKET, who won two in a row before a third-place finish going longer in the mud against what hits me as a better group. His two-back score came at this route, and there’s something to be said for horses that like the chute; #2 ECHO AGAIN (5/2): Has run two solid races at Saratoga this summer and was most recently a close-up second going seven furlongs. He more than fits on speed figures, but I’m starting to get a bit concerned that he finds ways to lose, and the rail draw isn’t an ideal one out of the chute, let alone for a deep closer; #5 DILGER (3-1): Faded a bit to be third last time out going seven furlongs, but perhaps he needed that race off of a bit of a break. He’s won going a mile before, and Irad sees fit to ride back.

Maria Callas
Cosmic Candy Girl
Boomington

#3 MARIA CALLAS (9/5): Debuts for Chad Brown and boasts a steady string of solid drills ahead of her unveiling. There’s plenty of stamina on her bottom-side pedigree, sire Caravaggio is a very strong turf influence, and Flavien Prat will be aboard; #8 COSMIC CANDY GIRL (10-1): Ran second beaten a length in her debut, which was rained off the turf. Everything about her pedigree says she wants the grass, and while this barn has been a bit cold this summer, I think this one has a chance at a price; #7 BOOMINGTON (8-1): Is one of two firsters trained by George Weaver in this spot, and of the pair, this is the one I want. She’s kin to Run Away, who won three stakes races as a 2-year-old in California, and the two-back gate drill on August 16th was a good one.

Mindframe
Sierra Leone
Highland Falls

#4 MINDFRAME (2-1): Has never run a bad one and comes into the Grade 1 Jockey Club Gold Cup with three graded stakes wins in as many starts this season. I think he’ll sit an ideal trip just off the pace and have every chance to run that mark to 4-for-4 over one of the best Gold Cup fields in recent memory; #3 SIERRA LEONE (8/5): Figures to be favored after an impressive score in the Grade 1 Whitney. His rabbit once again runs here, and his best race could absolutely win this, but it’s worth noting that he’s chased Mindframe twice, including in the Grade 1 Stephen Foster two back; #2 HIGHLAND FALLS (5-1): Was a very good second in the Whitney, goes third off the bench for Brad Cox, and does his best running at the Spa. He won this race a season ago, and while he’ll need to run a bit faster to repeat, it’s also possible he’s sitting on a big one here (and if you like him, you’ll get a square price).

Meursault (MTO)
Virgin Colada
Sea To Sky

#10 VIRGIN COLADA (2-1): Takes a significant class drop after a clunker in the Grade 1 Belmont Oaks and looms large in this allowance event. She’s been running against stakes company ever since breaking her maiden at first asking, and she’s strictly the one to beat; #7 SEA TO SKY (8-1): Is a European invader getting first-time Lasix, which is an angle I’ve always loved. She ran some solid races overseas, seems to be working well, and attracts Hall of Famer John Velazquez; #1 CLIFFS (4-1): Faces winners for the first time after an impressive maiden-breaking score earlier this month. A repeat effort could give her a chance, but that was a significant step forward, and there’s also a chance she “bounces” off of it.

Celebrity Quest
Paige Turner
Lovely Christina

#9 CELEBRITY QUEST (6-1): Sold for $525,000 at Keeneland last fall and debuts for Tom Amoss, who has sent out some very talented 2-year-olds this summer. She’s got a few bullet drills on her sheet, and her bottom-side pedigree is monstrous (her dam is kin to Grade 1 winner Power Broker, and third dam Shopping was very, very productive); #3 PAIGE TURNER (8-1): Travels in for Cherie DeVaux after several strong works at Keeneland and Ellis Park. I find the ship-in interesting, as there had to be a few spots coming up in Kentucky, and instead they run her here. That could be a sign she’s sitting on “go” in her unveiling; #8 LOVELY CHRISTINA (5/2): Chased a well-meant debutante when second at first asking for Todd Pletcher, and improvement is likely at second asking. Still, this is a promising group of 2-year-old fillies, and merely repeating the last-out effort may not be enough to get it done.

Burning Glory
Vettriano
Tap Into This

#4 BURNING GLORY (8-1): Hasn’t run since February, when he was third in the Grade 3 Holy Bull behind a pair of eventual Grade 1 winners. The long layoff is a concern, but he’ll run with Lasix for the first time and that last-out gate drill was very, very fast. At his likely price, I’ll gladly take a swing; #2 VETTRIANO (6-1): Never had a chance in his return a few weeks ago, when he broke slowly and was never involved. He wants to be on or near the lead, and that’s the trip he should get stretching out second off the bench for Linda Rice; #7 TAP INTO THIS (3-1): Graduated in fine fashion last time out, but I think his likely price is a bit short here. He benefited from a legitimate pace last time out, the post position isn’t ideal, and the Wilson chute is an unknown. Maybe he’s developing and is good enough to overcome all of that, but others interest me more.

Royal Guard
Tacticality
Sunrise (AE)

#9 ROYAL GUARD (4-1): Was third in his off-the-turf debut, and that day’s runner-up was a next-out winner. His bottom-side pedigree is all-turf, which he gets here, and his experience edge over a few first-time starters could make a big, big difference; #10 TACTICALITY (3-1): Draws a less-than-ideal post in his debut for Chad Brown, but he’s bred to be a runner and has been working consistently. His dam, second dam, and third dam were all stakes horses, and sire Essential Quality is off to a fast start at stud; #13 SUNRISE (4-1): Needs two scratches to run, but his debut wasn’t bad and he may have needed that race given a pedigree that suggests he’ll get better with experience. He may be wide if he runs, but it’s also possible he’s sitting on a move forward.

R10

Big Invasion
Twenty Six Black
Works for Me

#9 BIG INVASION (5-1): Comes in off a long layoff to contest the Disco Partner, but he’s run very, very well at Saratoga in the past. He won last year’s Harvey Pack at this route, seems to be training well, and figures to be the one they’ll have to hold off late; #5 TWENTY SIX BLACK (4-1): Was a good second in the Grade 2 Troy behind one of the best turf sprinters in the country, and Flavien Prat sees fit to ride back. He’s another with a history of strong efforts at Saratoga, and perhaps he’s coming into his own as a 5-year-old; #8 WORKS FOR ME (6-1): Ran second in the Harvey Pack and hasn’t run a clunker in more than a year for a small barn that merits respect (that outfit also conditions multiple graded stakes winner May Day Ready). He won last year’s Aqueduct Turf Sprint Championship, so he more than fits at this level.

R11

Rout
Vibrant Express
Lodato

#3 ROUT (2-1): Was one-paced in his debut on turf and goes to dirt while dropping in for a tag. It’s possible this is a “dump” from a high-percentage barn, but there’s just not much in this group, and any sort of a step forward from his debut figures to make him tough to beat; #10 VIBRANT EXPRESS (9/2): Debuts for George Weaver and is another that seems to have found a good spot. We don’t know much about him yet, but he’s got a few OK workouts and draws well at first asking; #2 LODATO (6-1): Showed speed in his debut going two turns on turf at Tampa, but we haven’t seen him since. A few recent drills look fine, and the presence of aggressive jockey Luis Saez could indicate he’ll be forwardly-placed out of the gate.

R12

Navajo Warrior
Gasoline
Systemic Change

#2 NAVAJO WARRIOR (2-1): Got pretty good earlier this year in California, where he reeled off three straight wins at a mile before moving to the Saffie Joseph barn. He fits on speed figures, and his ability to go a two-turn mile should translate well to the Wilson chute; #6 GASOLINE (6-1): Is 2-for-2 at Saratoga and topped a weaker group going two turns last time out. He may be a bit better going a hair shorter, so the cutback could move him forward, and if he can repeat his last-out effort, he could stand a chance at a mild upset; #7 SYSTEMIC CHANGE (5-1): Capitalized on an ideal setup last time out, when he rallied from last to first before being claimed by Ilkay Kantarmaci. His two-back clunker came in a key race that’s now produced four next-out winners, and he’d benefit from a faster-than-expected pace here.

R13

Belle Cherie
Julita
Flatter Fanatic

#11 BELLE CHERIE (9/2): Hasn’t run since April and takes a class drop that may seem alarming on paper. However, this ownership desperately wants to make a run at the seasonal title, they’re not afraid to drop horses way down in order to do that, and she has plenty of back form; #8 JULITA (8-1): Is another dropping in class, but she does so after a failed turf experiment last time out. She showed speed against better two back at Aqueduct, and she went wire-to-wire three back to break her maiden; #6 FLATTER FANATIC (12-1): Merits a look at a price after a dud in the slop against winners. Her two-back win at Gulfstream was a solid effort, and she showed plenty of gate speed that day.

R14

Lets Fight
Hello Newman
Blame It On K J

#3 LETS FIGHT (9/2): Hasn’t run since February, but his work tab is strong and he drops in for a tag for the first time. He’s bred to love the lawn, and the presence of Irad in the finale of this marathon card could be a clue; #2 HELLO NEWMAN (3-1): Showed improvement at this level last time out, when he was a close-up third going shorter. I’m not entirely sure two turns is what he wants, but at least we know he can be competitive against similar horses; #7 BLAME IT ON K J (10-1): Comes back to turf after running a good second in an off-the-turf event at second asking. He lost all chance in his debut at the start, and his pedigree says the grass is what he wants. Another step forward in his third start could give him a big chance at a price.