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SARATOGA SELECTIONS AND ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Twenty Six Black, Race 8
Longshot: Cararra, Race 3

R1

Frolicking
Poise
Glow of a Rose

#2 FROLICKING (9/5): Is one of a few in the Sunday opener coming in off a break, and she hasn’t run in nine months. However, that initial effort was very good, as she was a close-up second behind a horse that repeated at next asking. Her recent works hint that Brad Cox has her primed for her 3-year-old debut; #3 POISE (2-1): Has a pedigree that says she’ll get better with experience, and she’s improved in every start to date. She helped set a very fast pace last time out at Churchill, and she certainly seems likely to dictate terms here; #1 GLOW OF A ROSE (2-1): Was an 8/5 favorite in her debut at Keeneland last year and ran fine to be third of 11. We haven’t seen her since, and Wesley Ward hasn’t had a great meet to this point, but she gets Lasix for the first time and could be dangerous if she’s ready to go.

R2

Commitment Fund (MTO)
Pay the Piper
Quick Pick

#3 PAY THE PIPER (3-1): Came back running in his first start in four months last time out, as he rallied to be third at this route despite a wide trip. Blinkers come off in this spot, and any sort of a move forward from that effort would make her the one to beat; #4 QUICK PICK (5/2): Debuts for Will Walden and is bred to be a good one. He’s by Oscar Performance and has a bottom-side pedigree that includes a dam, second dam, and third dam that all won stakes races; #1 HOUSING MARKET (7/2): Makes his first start for Chad Brown and attracts Flavien Prat, which figures to attract plenty of attention. His European pedigree is solid, as his dam is kin to a pair of stakes winners, but I have to wonder why he spent so much time at Monmouth this spring. That’s not the red flag it was in the past, but it’s definitely a question mark.

R3

Royal Bobbie
Cararra
Karey

#3 ROYAL BOBBIE (2-1): Hasn’t won in quite a while, but that last win was over this track, and to be fair, she’s been running against much better horses. She drops in for a $25,000 tag here, half of what she ran for two back at Aqueduct, and I think she’s found her friends in this plater for non-winners of three; #6 CARARRA (6-1): Feels like the controlling speed in here beneath Ricardo Santana, Jr., and that’s always dangerous coming out of the chute. Like my top pick, she hasn’t won in a while, but also like my top pick, she’s spent most of the last two years going against better horses; #9 KAREY (8-1): Draws a pretty lousy post, though we did see a horse win from the 10-hole here Friday. She comes up in class after a win at this route last time out, and while that day’s runner-up flopped at next asking as a favorite, this spot doesn’t seem too much tougher than the one she exits.

R4

Capt Fluff N Stuff
Main Thing
Just Classic

#7 CAPT FLUFF N STUFF (9/2): Was claimed by Danny Gargan last time out and has since turned in three pretty strong works at the Spa. He drops in class a bit for this one, and I think he’s the main speed in a race that doesn’t have that much of it signed on elsewhere. All of that makes him tough here; #2 MAIN THING (7/2): Debuts for an astute outfit and may not have to be great to earn the diploma at first asking. The last two workouts look solid, though it’s fair to wonder why this $85,000 auction purchase is debuting for a $40,000 tag two years later; #6 JUST CLASSIC (2-1): Wouldn’t be a shock, but hits me as a very vulnerable favorite. We haven’t seen him in over a year, when he ran against stakes foes in Texas. He comes back here for a $35,000 claiming price, and it’s not like his numbers tower over those he runs against in this spot. Given his likely price, I’ll try to beat him.

R5

All Star Leigh
Beach Life (AE)
Deuce Dancer

#8 ALL STAR LEIGH (5/2): Ran very well to be second in her debut behind an impressive winner. This isn’t a barn known for first-out success. It’s a patient operation, and it’s fair to assume she’ll improve quite a bit here. If she does, look out; #14 BEACH LIFE (5-1): Set a very fast pace in the race my top pick exits before fading to finish fourth. She needs a few scratches to draw in, but if she does, she and Irad Ortiz, Jr., may be the ones to catch turning into the stretch; #9 DEUCE DANCER (9/2): Debuts off a very fast gate work on August 1st, and there are reasons to believe she’s a good one. She’s kin to, among others, a turfer named Smooth Breeze that won at first asking and placed in a few stakes races. This is another barn whose runners tend to improve with seasoning, but there are some reasons to be bullish.

R6

Paul’s Recovery (MTO)
Vintage Vino
Capricious Outcome

#11 VINTAGE VINO (5-1): Doesn’t draw well in this two-turn event on the inner turf, but he’s a closer in a race with plenty of early speed signed on. Unlike others, he’s shown an ability to pass others late, and if they go very fast early on, that could come in handy; #1 CAPRICIOUS OUTCOME (5/2): Looked home and cooled out on the drop in class last time out, but he nearly got caught. He was 3/5 against a field that looked overmatched that day, and this is his first try against winners. It’s not the strongest group, for sure, but I can’t advise taking a short price given that performance; #10 I CAN SEE THAT (10-1): Is protected from being claimed, which is one of my favorite handicapping angles in a spot like this. He was third at this level before going to the sidelines nine months ago, and this is a barn that does some of its best work with horses that have been on the sidelines for a while.

R7

Lil Tipsy
Rose to Roches
Immaculate Moon

#7 LIL TIPSY (3-1): Is a proven closer that made up ground last time out despite being very, very wide. She’s run several races that would make her a major player in here, and the faster they go early, the better her chances figure to be; #5 ROSE TO RICHES (3-1): Takes a slight class drop into this high-priced maiden claimer and was fourth in the race my top pick exits. That was this one’s first start in almost 11 months, so she’s got a right to improve, but the logical question to ask is, if she’s better now, why the drop in class and the claiming tag?; #1 IMMACULATE MOON (5/2): Runs for the first time since late-August. She was fourth in what looked like a live baby race in her debut, but her second start was a real disappointment and we haven’t seen her since. She’s been working consistently since May, though, and the presence of Irad Ortiz, Jr., doesn’t hurt.

R8

Twenty Six Black
John the Beer Man
Determined Kingdom

#2 TWENTY SIX BLACK (5/2): Ran very, very well to win the Harvey Pack here last month and is a logical favorite in the Grade 2 Troy. Unlike most of his rivals, he doesn’t need the lead in order to run well, and he could be in an ideal position to mow them all down in the stretch; #6 JOHN THE BEER MAN (7/2): Won two in a row before finishing a close-up third in the Grade 1 Jaipur on the Belmont undercard. He’s run some big races since returning to the track earlier this year, and while he may not be alone up front early on, he’s the one I like most of the likely pace-setters; #9 DETERMINED KINGDOM (15-1): Shipped to Colonial to win a minor stakes race last time out, and he did so on the lead. I’m not convinced that’s his best game, as he stalked and pounced to take a stakes-caliber optional claimer two back at this route. If he’s able to stalk again here, he could be right there when the real running starts (and at a pretty generous price, to boot).

R9

Mo for the King
Max Money
Onebigbeautfulbill

#2 MO FOR THE KING (5/2): Finished a good third in a similar spot last time out, and that day’s winner came back to win again on Friday. He’s shown he likes it here, and Flavien Prat chooses to ride back when he likely had several appealing options; #6 MAX MONEY (4-1): Has run two big races on Lasix compared to some real clunkers off of it, and he’s able to run with it here after a sharp score going a mile. He cuts back to a seven-panel trip here, and he graduated three back with a three-length win at this distance downstate; #3 ONEBIGBEAUTFULBILL (7/2): Rallied from last to first to get the money here last month and faces winners for the first time. This is a pretty strong race for the level, and Prat going elsewhere isn’t ideal, but it’s also possible he steps forward at second asking, and it’s not like having Irad in the irons is a bad thing.

R10

Sequential (MTO)
Hard Circle
Ciao Chuck

#8 HARD CIRCLE (9/2): Hit the front in the stretch last time out, only to be reeled in by Highlands Way. That one came back and ran very well a few days ago, which bodes well for this one’s chances. Prat hops aboard for Mike Maker, and I’m expecting him to sit an ideal stalking trip; #5 CIAO CHUCK (7/2): Put forth a strong effort two back over an ultra-firm turf course, when he was third beaten a neck against similar company. He was very wide behind a loose-on-the-lead winner last time out, so I don’t have much of a problem excusing that clunker; #1 THE PADDOCK PASTOR (8-1): Gets a very rare inside draw, as he’s had a lot of trouble saving ground of late. His last-out effort wasn’t a good one, but his efforts two and three back were solid, he gets Jose Ortiz, and he may be able to take a shorter way around the racetrack from the 1-hole.

R11

Shirl’s Soul Town
Bosun
Ortley Avenue

#6 SHIRL’S SOUL TOWN (9/2): Overcame some trouble to spring a 13-1 upset in his debut last time out. It took a while for him to get to the races, but this Charles Fipke homebred with a fantastic bottom-side pedigree may have a very bright future, and I think it’s likely he improves here; #9 BOSUN (7/2): Has done some of his best running at Saratoga and was a good second here last time out in his first try since late-January. He won twice at this route a season ago, and Jose Ortiz has been aboard for two of his three lifetime victories; #10 ORTLEY AVENUE (6-1): Has been off a year and returns for George Weaver. He ran well in some pretty big spots last year, including a second in the Grade 3 Quick Call at this route. If he’s ready and is able to flash his early speed, he may be the one they have to catch.