BANKROLL
BANKROLL: $1,167.43
The Whitney may be Saturday’s main event, and given the cast of characters assembled for the race, that’s justifiable. However, underselling the Fourstardave, and the Saratoga legend it honors, would be a mistake.
The most unbreakable record in sports isn’t Cy Young’s 511 pitching wins, Bill Russell’s 11 NBA titles, or Wayne Gretzky’s 2,857 points. It’s Fourstardave’s eight consecutive years with a win at Saratoga. Simply put, horses are not bred to run that long anymore, and the ones with the talent to win eight races at Saratoga are retired to stud long before they get the chance to do so.
Fourstardave wasn’t the fastest horse, or the most brilliant horse, or the most accomplished horse (in fact, his full brother, Fourstars Allstar, may have been better, as he claimed the prestigious Irish 2,000 Guineas). However, he’s an icon in upstate New York, and for good reason. It’s immensely satisfying that the race named after him has ascended to Grade 1 status over the years, and Saturday’s renewal has drawn a very solid group.
FRIDAY’S RESULTS: Unlike her last start, Midtown Mischief had no excuse in the second race. Like her last start, though, she ran third. I dropped $38.
SATURDAY’S PLAY: Given his pedigree, I’m very excited to see #7 REVENUE STREAM debut in today’s eighth race. I’ll have $20 to win on him, and I’ll also use him as a single to finish off a $2 Pick Three that starts in the sixth. That ticket goes as follows: 3 with 1,4,5,6,7,10 with 7.
TOTAL WAGERED: $32.
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SARATOGA SELECTIONS AND ANALYSIS
Best Bet: Revenue Stream, Race 8
Longshot: Capitol Hill, Race 10
R1
Gaudreau
Star Salute
Hemingway
#7 GAUDREAU (7/2): Is one of several good-looking firsters in the Saturday opener, and this is the recipient of a tepid nod in a wide-open event. A $220,000 auction purchase, he’s got several strong gate works, and this son of Nyquist boasts both a superb female family and jockey Flavien Prat, who likely had several options; #5 STAR SALUTE (5-1): Hammered for $550,000 at Keeneland last year and is another bred to be a good one. He’s kin to top-notch sprinter Dr. Venkman, and in addition to his production dam, his second dam also threw a pair of other stakes winners, too; #8 HEMINGWAY (9/2): Debuts for Brad Cox and draws favorably, with most of this field to his inside. Some of his works look pretty good, and if there’s hesitation here, it’s only because I think he’ll want even longer than this 6 1/2-furlong distance.
R2
Code of Arms
Mystrix
Implied Open
#9 CODE OF ARMS (6-1): Sold for $625,000 last September, and I’d be pleasantly surprised if we got the morning line price on him. He’s by Not This Time, his dam won multiple stakes races, he draws well, and he boasts several stellar gate drills on his tab. I think he’s very well-meant in his unveiling; #8 MYSTRIX (7/2): Has been working very, very well for Danny Gargan, whose barn is due to get going at the meet. There’s not a ton of pedigree here, but he sold for $600,000 at auction as a yearling, so clearly these connections saw a lot of potential; #10 IMPLIED OPEN (6-1): Debuts for Will Walden off of some strong moves at Churchill Downs, and he’s got a right to be precocious. His dam was a debut winner, and she’s kin to six winners from six other foals to race out of the multiple stakes-winning second dam.
R3
Instant Replay
Vibe
Classicist
#7 INSTANT REPLAY (5-1): Has won six of 12 starts, and he’s shown he’s much, much better when he’s able to run with Lasix. He gets that here, he’s a multiple stakes winner going two turns, and Prat sees fit to ride; #4 VIBE (5/2): Was pulled up in the Grade 1 Met Mile, which he entered off of three wins in a row. On speed figures, he’s a major player, and I won’t be stunned if he wins, but this is his first time going two turns and he’s not going against a soft group. As the great Harvey Pack said, “never bet a horse, as the favorite, doing something it’s never done before;” #5 CLASSICIST (8-1): Is another getting back on Lasix when proven to run better with it. The “other Pletcher” has won three of four starts on that medication and attracts John Velazquez off of a last-out bullet drill that was fastest of 131 moves at the distance that day.
R4
Hidden Rose (MTO)
Carmensita
Scratch It
#5 CARMENSITA (5-1): Was third in her U.S. debut two back before trying much tougher in the Grade 1 Belmont Oaks (as an Argentinian-bred, she’s since turned four years old, per Brisnet). This feels like a much softer spot, and she gets to run with Lasix third off the bench for a barn that’s been going very, very well; #6 SCRATCH IT (6-1): Ran fifth in a chaotic renewal of the Wild Applause, and given what happened that day, I have no issue drawing a line through that race. She’s placed in multiple stakes races, and her two-back win in Indiana was quite good; #1 CONSUMER SENTIMENT (2-1): Is a pretty heavy favorite on the morning line, but I just can’t back a horse that hasn’t run since May of 2025. Her maiden-breaking win at Aqueduct was sharp, but she may have to run back to that race to contend here, and given the long break, that’s no cinch (even for powerhouse connections).
R5
Pretty Boy Miah
Tagermeen
Rock Music
#6 PRETTY BOY MIAH (2-1): Cuts back to seven furlongs here, and that’s probably his best game. He was third behind a well-meant winner last time out, and his efforts three and four back going one turn downstate were probably the best races he’s run to date; #7 TAGERMEEN (3-1): Came back running off the bench last time out, when he broke the maiden in the slop at Churchill. He competed against some real heavyweights as a 2-year-old, including Ted Noffey and Englishman, and Steve Asmussen trainees getting better with age and experience is far from uncommon; #2 ROCK MUSIC (6-1): Has had some gate issues but gets Irad Ortiz, Jr., off of a race that wasn’t bad. He was fourth in a pretty fast event for the level, and he showed a new dimension that day to make up some ground.
R6
Red Poppy
Summer Starlet
Aerial Affair
#3 RED POPPY (5/2): Has been a major “buzz” horse after hammering for $900,000 earlier this year and working like a real runner. The tag team of Pletcher and Irad Ortiz, Jr., will move plenty of money, and indications are that she could be a special filly; #9 SUMMER STARLET (6-1): Debuts for Steve Asmussen after some strong drills of her own, and she’s bred to be a good one. This daughter of City of Light is out of a mare whose two prior foals to race are winners, and her female family includes the dam of, among others, multiple Grade 2 winner Fed Biz; #6 AERIAL AFFAIR (5-1): Was green in her debut, but that’s something we’ve seen from some offspring of the great Flightline, whose first 2-year-olds are running this year. She’s certainly eligible to move forward at second asking, and she’s another with workouts that indicate she has talent.
R7
Castle Chaos (MTO)
Kravitz
Il Siciliano
#7 KRAVITZ (8-1): Is a tepid top pick in a turf marathon where I don’t have a strong opinion. He comes back to the optional claiming ranks after two tries against stakes foes. It’s his first try at a distance like this, but he’s bred to love it, and at a minimum he’s run OK against some nice grass horses; #10 IL SICILIANO (6-1): Is another getting class relief in here, and he’s proven going long on Lasix. He’s a deep closer that may need a lot to go right (especially on an inner turf course that tends to favor front-runners), but he’s got back races that would make him a major player; #5 IRON SIGHT (4-1): Earned the diploma last time out in his first try since August. He’s definitely got potential to move forward second off the bench, but it’s worth noting he’s had some issues at the start in all of his prior outings, and given these connections, we may not get much value here.
R8
Revenue Stream
And the Runner Is
Oscar
#7 REVENUE STREAM (4-1): Possesses one of the best turf pedigrees on the grounds for a trainer that’s unveiled some monsters with similar stock. His third dam was the dam of champion marathoner Kyprios, as well as two Group 1 winners and a multiple graded stakes winner. If he runs to his pedigree, he could be an outstanding prospect; #12 AND THE RUNNER IS (7/2): Ran well in his debut, when he was second in a similar race last month. That experience edge is a plus, but the far-outside post is a genuine concern. He’ll need to find a way to save ground, and if he doesn’t, this could be an uphill battle; #4 OSCAR (10-1): Is worth a look at a price for a barn that does well with first-time starters. He’s kin to 2-year-old stakes winner Meringue, who’s done her best work on the lawn, and given the presence of sire Oscar Performance, he figures to be a very good turfer, too.
R9
On Time Girl
Sippin Pretty
Explora
#6 ON TIME GIRL (7/2): Is ultra-consistent and has two graded stakes wins at this seven-furlong distance coming into the Grade 1 Test. She was second behind the likely favorite last time out, but she bled that day, while the winner couldn’t have possibly sat a better trip. I think this one has a big chance to turn the tables; #3 SIPPIN PRETTY (6-1): Ran very, very well to win a loaded renewal of the Grade 3 Victory Ride last month. She was a big price that day, and you’ll have to stomach a shorter one here, but she pressed a solid pace that day and won as considerably the best horse in that event; #7 EXPLORA (5/2): Was an easy winner of the Leslie’s Lady, though, as mentioned, she couldn’t have had it much easier. She’s clearly talented, and Bob Baffert means business whenever he ships, but I think she sees pressure up front here. She may need to be at her absolute best to beat these, and that’s not a lock.
R10
Lagynos
Deterministic
Capitol Hill
#7 LAGYNOS (5-1): Comes into the Grade 1 Fourstardave on a five-race win streak and has blossomed into one of the country’s top turf horses. I like that he doesn’t need the lead in order to run well, and he should certainly get a pace to close into. It doesn’t hurt that we may get a bettable price; #5 DETERMINISTIC (2-1): Is another on a five-race run of victories, and one of those was a win in this race a year ago. I expect him to sit a stalking trip just off the pace, and that may mean he’s the one they have to keep up with turning for home; #6 CAPITOL HILL (10-1): Is this race’s lone true closer, and given the abundance of early speed signed on, that means I have to use him. He didn’t get his ideal setup in the Grade 3 Kelso last time, but I think he gets it today. Maybe that’s not good enough to get him a win, but it could certainly get him a piece of it at a price.
R11
West End Kid
Remember Mamba
Title Role
#10 WEST END KID (7/2): Was a hard-luck loser in the Grade 1 Belmont Derby, and I think he’s got what it takes to turn the tables in the Grade 1 Saratoga Derby. He’s bred to improve with added distance, which he gets here, and he should also have some pace to chase. Add in Flavien Prat, and I think there’s quite a bit to like; #3 REMEMBER MAMBA (3-1): Was beaten a neck in the Belmont Derby and certainly didn’t have it easy rating behind a pretty slow pace. Like my top pick, he figures to benefit from a more closer-friendly race shape, and ignore this trainer/jockey duo in big races for 3-year-olds at your own peril; #4 TITLE ROLE (9/2): Pulled off a mild upset when he got his nose down over my top pick last time. He could conceivably win again, but I’m not sure more distance is what he wants, and he may have to go a bit faster early to get his desired spot.
R12
Magnitude
Baeza
Sovereignty
#1 MAGNITUDE (9/5): Comes into the Grade 1 Whitney off of four straight wins, including an excellent score over several of these in the Grade 1 Stephen Foster. Asmussen has seen him blossom as a 4-year-old, the back-to-back bullet drills indicate he’s thriving lately, and I think he’ll be tough to beat; #8 BAEZA (7/2): Seems to go out of his way to find trouble, but there’s no doubting his talent. He was second behind my top pick in the Foster, and this race may have some more early speed signed on to set up for his vicious late kick. If he gets the clean trip that constantly seems to elude him, I could easily see him springing the upset; #6 SOVEREIGNTY (3-1): Won some of the biggest races in the country last year and wasn’t awful when second in his comeback in the Grade 2 Oaklawn Handicap, but his misfire in the Foster was a bit alarming. Perhaps he just had a bad day, or perhaps he hasn’t moved forward from that 3-year-old campaign. There’s quite a bit at stake for this one here, and he may need to run a career-best race to find the winner’s circle.
R13
Helen’s Revenge
Battis Grove
Feminism
#3 HELEN’S REVENGE (6-1): Won three in a row earlier this year before finishing a fast-closing third here in June. The rider switch to Prat is a huge one, he’s 2-for-2 at this seven-furlong distance, and she should get plenty of pace to rate behind before making her run; #8 BATTIS GROVE (3-1): Broke her maiden with ease two back, but faded to third last time out after pressing a hot pace at Ellis Park. It’s possible she “bounced” a bit off of the late-May effort at Churchill, and if she gets back to that form, she could be the speed of the speed; #2 FEMINISM (2-1): Graduated first time out at Oaklawn and has since run into some fast horses. Her speed figures make her a player, and maybe she’s got more room to grow, but I’m not sure more distance is what she wants, and she shouldn’t be alone up front. At her likely price, I’ll take a mild stand against her.
R14
Complex Agenda
Capital Partner
Versailles Road
#7 COMPLEX AGENDA (9/2): Looks like the main speed in the Saturday nightcap, which, much like this 14-race card, is a marathon (one that, in this case, will go off just before 8 pm Eastern time). He was a competitive fourth going 12 furlongs last time out, and he helped set a legitimate pace that day. Between the slight cutback and the possibility he won’t need to go so fast early on, I think he’s live; #2 CAPITAL PARTNER (7/2): Stretches out to three turns and has a pedigree that says he should love such a journey. The Brown/Prat tag team merits plenty of respect, and he’s certainly eligible to move forward in his second start following a break of more than eight months; #4 VERSAILLES ROAD (5-1): Sat a weird trip last time in the same race my top pick exits. He was third that day, and he broke his maiden two back at this distance downstate. On figures, the last-out effort was a significant step forward, but if he can repeat it, he’ll be right there after 1 3/8 miles.