BANKROLL
BANKROLL: $1,058.70
Coming to the track as consistently as I did growing up has led to a lot of great stories. One of them, however, has been hotly-contested by my dad and I for the last several days.
We agree that, many years ago, we were driving up the Northway when a canoe atop a car in front of us slid out and fell backwards. It bounced in front of us and, thankfully, went dead right off the side of the road without hurting anyone or damaging anything.
We disagree, however, on where exactly this took place. I maintain it was before the Twin Bridges. He insists it was on a straightaway near Malta. We’ve been badgering each other about this nonstop, which, on Thursday, helped distract us from one of the weirdest racing days we’ve ever seen.
(Love you, Dad. And hey, on the off chance the person who lost the canoe that day is out there, I hope you either learned how to tie one atop your car or had the good sense to stop trying!)
FRIDAY’S RESULTS: I scratched down to one $20 win bet, which fizzled when Carpet City never seemed comfortable in the fifth.
SATURDAY’S PLAY: 2-year-old races are always tricky, but I’ve got strong opinions in two of them. I’ll have $25 win bets on #2 LIAM’S LAW in the second and #2 JOY OF LIFE in the fifth, and I’ll also take a small shot with a $1 Pick Four starting in the second that goes as follows: 2 with 4,5,7 with 4,6,7 with 2.
TOTAL WAGERED: $59.
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SARATOGA SELECTIONS AND ANALYSIS
Best Bet: Liam’s Law, Race 2
Longshot: Joy of Life, Race 5
R1
U. S. S. Valor
Belzoni
Mystrix
#4 U. S. S. VALOR (5/2): Had quite a bit of trouble in his debut, but he still managed to finish within three-quarters of a length of that day’s well-meant winner. Shug McGaughey’s first-time starters almost always need a race to get going, and he runs like a horse that’ll appreciate the extra sixteenth he gets in the Saturday opener; #9 BELZONI (6-1): Missed by a head at a price in his debut, and that seasoning should help him here. He’s another bred for distance, and like my top pick, he should move forward with that start under his belt for a patient barn; #2 MYSTRIX (4-1): Dueled through scorching fractions last time out and was second in a three-horse photo. He certainly looks like the controlling speed in here, and he may be the one they have to run down (though I question whether or not more distance is what he truly wants).
R2
Liam’s Law
High Official
Bold Leadership
#2 LIAM’S LAW (5/2): Is the highest price of the three Todd Pletcher trainees in the Grade 3 With Anticipation, but he’s the one I most prefer. He went wire-to-wire in the race carded for a controversial distance earlier this meet (moving it to 1 1/16 miles also meant moving a Pick Six carryover), and if he gets comfortable, I think he’ll be tough to catch; #3 HIGH OFFICIAL (7/5): Was very professional in his debut, where he rated, launched a wide bid, and pulled away late. Flavien Prat had some options and lands here, which is a plus, but I’m a bit skeptical of what he beat that day, as it didn’t hit me as the best field; #4 BOLD LEADERSHIP (8/5): Just missed last time out and may have been best that day given his rally from seventh in a race without much early speed. It wouldn’t be shocking to see him step forward, but it sure feels like a similar race shape will materialize in this spot, and that may not be good for him.
R3
Chillax (MTO)
Highlands Way
Favorable Scenario
#4 HIGHLANDS WAY (9/5): Has come flying late in each of his last three starts and was a close-up second behind a runner that tried stakes company earlier this week. This seems like a softer spot, and while more distance is a question mark for a few of these, the extra ground should really help this Pletcher trainee; #7 FAVORABLE SCENARIO (8/5): Hasn’t won in a while but has also been facing stakes-caliber horses pretty regularly. He was most recently second in a swiftly-run race for this level, and the blinkers going on may mean he’s a bit closer to the pace in this spot; #5 THIRTEEN COLONIES (5-1): May have needed his most recent effort, which came off a layoff of more than 10 months. You have to go back a bit to find it, but he does have races that would be competitive with this group, and I’m expecting a step forward now that his comeback race has come and gone.
R4
Three B’s
B Thedonald
Ten Cent Town
#4 THREE B’S (5-1): Is a stone closer in a race that seems full of early speed, and he comes back to the dirt after going up against stakes foes on grass last time out. He’s got three top-two finishes in four local starts, and he’s shown that this 6 1/2-furlong distance hits him right between the eyes. If he gets the logical setup, look out; #7 B THEDONALD (7/2): I’d rather not, but he’s better than he showed last time out when he was fourth as an odds-on favorite. He’s been gelded since that clunker, Flavien Prat hops aboard, and if he can channel his early-2026 form, his desired “stalk and pounce” trip may be the winning one; #6 TEN CENT TOWN (4-1): Appeals to me the most of the likely speed-types in here. He hasn’t run a bad one in his last six starts, and the two most recent efforts were against stakes foes (albeit at Finger Lakes). The pace may be hot, but he’s also shown he doesn’t necessarily need the lead, and that could be hugely helpful.
R5
Joy of Life
Aerial Affair
Secret Wish
#2 JOY OF LIFE (8-1): Showed speed in her debut before finishing a distant third behind one of the favorites in the Saturday feature. Bill Mott firsters often need that initial effort, and she ran fairly well given how fast she went early. I’m banking on significant improvement in what hits me as a loaded maiden race for 2-year-old fillies; #6 AERIAL AFFAIR (9/2): Has run well twice this summer for a barn that’s heated up of late with its juveniles. She was second in the race my top pick exits and showed more maturity than she did first time out. She may need to progress more to win this, but that’s far from impossible; #8 SECRET WISH (4-1): Debuts for Chad Brown and Flavien Prat and has a right to be a good one. She sold for $775,000 at Keeneland last year, is kin to four multiple winners, and has a very flashy gate drill a few works back. I tend to prefer experience in races contested at this seven-furlong distance, which is why I went with others on top, but she certainly wouldn’t be a shocking winner.
R6
Wynstock
Doc Sullivan
Reasoned Analysis
#1 WYNSTOCK (9/2): Ran very, very well last time out, when he rolled home going nine furlongs and was claimed by Joe Sharp. He’s been a bit of a “feast or famine” type, and when he’s bad, it’s not fun to watch. However, he draws very well in this Wilson chute race, he should establish position beneath Paco Lopez, and if Sharp has him where he was last time out, he’s got a big shot; #4 DOC SULLIVAN (3-1): Came flying late going seven furlongs last out and finished second behind the talented Buttah, who’s going very well at the moment. This is his second start off the bench for Amelia Green, and while I don’t love closers in chute races, he’s shown some tactical speed in the past and could be more forwardly-placed here; #5 REASONED ANALYSIS (5/2): Did everything but win last time out when he did all the dirty work up front and was beaten a head. This is his third start off a long layoff, and while that day’s winner is in here, he took enough of a step forward to make he think he might bounce. This one, meanwhile, may still have room to improve.
R7
True Essence
Electro
Pharocity
#3 TRUE ESSENCE (3-1): Didn’t get much pace to close into last time out at Ellis, but he still rallied and ran a solid second in his debut. His pedigree says more distance is exactly what he wants. He gets it here, and the experience edge he has over many of his rivals in here could be a big plus; #6 ELECTRO (9/2): Is one of two seven-figure auction purchases trained by Todd Pletcher in here, and of that pair, this is the one I want. There are some very flashy works on his sheet, and being by Gun Runner and out of a Grade 1 winner, he has every right to be extremely talented. Add in the presence of Flavien Prat, and he’s definitely logical; #9 PHAROCITY (7/2): Is a fascinating runner making his debut for Steve Asmussen after a series of works that, on paper, look outstanding. There’s not much in the way of bottom-side pedigree here, and some Asmussen trainees need their initial outings, but if he runs to his drills, look out.
R8
Motawaali (MTO)
Related Party
Artemis Two
#5 RELATED PARTY (5/2): Was nearly my best bet of the day, as I thought he ran extremely well in his debut despite not getting the job done. He rated well behind a slow pace, had some traffic trouble, and was beaten just a length. He’s strictly the one to beat, and if he gets smoother sailing while taking a logical step forward second time out, I don’t think that happens; #3 ARTEMIS TWO (7/2): Makes his first start for Brad Cox and has a bottom-side pedigree that screams he wants to go long on the lawn. His female family includes the dams of stakes winners in New Zealand, South Africa, Ireland, and Australia, and if my top pick misfires, he’s the most likely beneficiary; #6 STOCK RISING (6-1): Hammered for $1.5 million at Keeneland last year for obvious reasons. He’s by Flightline and out of the brilliant turf sprinter Lady Shipman, so plenty of eyes will be on him. However, his works look just so-so, and while Lady Shipman was an excellent grass horse, two turns wasn’t her game.
R9
Ortley Avenue
Money Makes Money
Grunge
#3 ORTLEY AVENUE (3-1): Ran well to be second behind a talented “horse for course” last time out, which was his first try in a full year. Castellano rides back for George Weaver, and while this isn’t an easy spot, there’s not a ton of other speed signed on. With that in mind, he’s a legit wire-to-wire threat; #5 MONEY MAKES MONEY (5-1): Shipped in for a high-percentage barn last time out and got the money at this route of ground. He might miss Irad Ortiz, Jr., but Jose Lezcano’s riding well to end the meet, and he could sit an ideal “stalk and pounce” trip in a race where the pace isn’t that fast; #2 GRUNGE (8-1): Is one of two Miguel Clement trainees in here, and I think he’s worth a look at a price. His last-out clunker was his first poor effort on turf, and blinkers going on should help him. His two-back effort here was very solid, and he could contend if he runs back to it.
R10
Universe
Courting
Papa Yo
#9 UNIVERSE (8-1): Ran like a horse that needed a race last time out, when he pressed the pace and folded going into the far turn. That was his first try since March, and his grinding style is a perfect fit for this race shape, which seems heavy on early speed. That may mean he’s going the right way late in a wide-open event where I’d advise you to go as deep as you can; #3 COURTING (6-1): Gets Lasix for the first time in his first try since April, and he ran in some tough spots earlier this year. Flavien Prat hops aboard, and he’s another that should do his best running late in the game; #2 PAPA YO (10-1): Took a big step forward for Linda Rice last time out, when he jogged home clear by more than five lengths against starter allowance foes. This is a tougher group, to be sure, but it seems like he’s going well for one of the meet’s leading trainers, and he could be live at double-digit odds.
R11
Life Changing
Summer Starlet
Stress Relief
#8 LIFE CHANGING (5/2): Did absolutely everything right at first asking, when she broke like a shot and only improved her positioning from there. She draws a cushy outside post in the Grade 1 Spinaway, Flavien Prat lands here, and I think she could be a handful; #2 SUMMER STARLET (2-1): Made an eye-catching move to win going away at first asking last time out. You don’t see 2-year-olds make those moves often, and she could be a serious racehorse. Watch the fifth carefully, as she’ll move forward if the second and third-place finishers run well in that affair; #4 STRESS RELIEF (8-1): Is 2-for-2 and sports a graded stakes score, having won the Grade 3 Adirondack handily and professionally. I’m not sure how good the field is that she beat that day, but she seems like a mature sort, and she may be able to handle quite a bit being thrown at her here.
R12
Sarir (MTO)
Ori
Griselda
#3 ORI (9/5): Is a logical early favorite in the Saturday nightcap, as she drops in class for a trainer quietly enjoying a very strong meet. She was fifth behind a pretty good horse last time out on the Fourth of July, and her tactical speed should be an asset given what feels like a lack of zip around her in the gate; #7 GRISELDA (4-1): Takes a significant class drop for Chad Brown after a 2026 debut that left a lot to be desired. Her best effort is a good one, and she’s got races on her sheet that would crush these, but it’s fair to wonder if she’s the same horse she was when she came over in 2025 and ran well twice in August and September; #4 SARATOGA SNOW (5-1): Was eased last time out, but that was an off-the-turf event over a sloppy, sealed track, so I have no problem drawing a line through it. Her efforts three and four back weren’t bad, and channeling that form could get her a piece of the finale.