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SARATOGA SELECTIONS AND ANALYSIS
Best Bet: Gilbane, Race 10
Longshot: Never Gonna Stop, Race 4
R1
Pink Rose
Mursal
Adrian
#6 PINK ROSE (5/2): Ships up from Parx and makes her first start for Steven Schauer in the Thursday opener. That barn has been on a tear of late, and we know she can run well at this one-mile distance. Channeling her two or three-back races may be enough to get her the money here; #8 MURSAL (2-1): Merits lots of respect after three wins in a row, and if this race was at seven furlongs, I’d like her quite a bit. However, the far-outside post coming out of the Wilson chute is a major negative, and while she’s negotiated a mile successfully before, this particular route is an unknown. She wouldn’t be a surprising winner, but I can’t back her at her likely price; #3 ADRIAN (6-1): Hasn’t won in a long, long time, but she’s been competitive against similar recently and keeps regular rider Manny Franco when he likely had a few options. She’d benefit from a fast pace, and there’s certainly some speed signed on.
R2
Cybertapping (MTO)
Troca
Rufus the Red
#4 TROCA (7/2): Debuts for Chad Brown, has several strong gate works on his sheet, and is bred to be a runner. His dam is kin to Grade 3-winning grass horse Drum Major and Drumette, best known as the dam of champion Monomoy Girl. Flavien Prat hopping aboard is also a big plus; #1 RUFUS THE RED (9/2): Made a middle move in his debut on dirt for a trainer that doesn’t always have them fully-cranked first time out. Sire Kantharos is a solid turf influence, and improvement is logical at second asking provided he gets out of the gate a bit better than he did last month; #8 CRYPTO KING (3-1): Showed some early interest in his debut for Riley Mott, another horseman whose charges tend to improve with seasoning and experience. The last two works were very sharp, though I’m skeptical if turf is really what he wants.
R3
Nuanced
Ez Roll
Get a Job
#8 NUANCED (8/5): Is a very, very tricky read. On one hand, we haven’t seen him since November, and I usually hate horses on the outside coming out of the Wilson chute. However, he also seems like the main speed in here, and I think he could clear this group early. If he does, he could be tough to catch; #2 EZ ROLL (3-1): Cuts back to a mile after faltering as an odds-on favorite last time out. He draws well, and his two-back race has aged very well with the winner and third-place horse coming back to win, but he may need more pace than he’s likely to get; #1 GET A JOB (5-1): Won at this route last time out after dueling throughout, and he’s 3-for-4 at the Spa. He takes a significant class jump to run here, but he’s probably the only one that could keep my top pick honest early, and at least we know he’s doing what he wants to do and is in decent form.
R4
Never Gonna Stop
All Show
Quoted
#7 NEVER GONNA STOP (12-1): Ran terribly last time out, but I’m treating that as a “bounce” off of a solid debut where she did everything but win. She drops in class a bit to run here, has shown speed, and stretches out to a distance she could shine at, especially if she’s allowed to dictate terms from the jump; #12 ALL SHOW (7/2): Ran well to be second in her debut behind a much-the-best winner, and I’d like her quite a bit with a better post. Her pedigree says two turns shouldn’t be an issue, and John Velazquez riding back is a good thing, but it might be hard to save ground from all the way out there; #11 QUOTED (4-1): Was less than a length behind my second choice last time out, also has a right to improve, and also draws a terrible post. Two turns shouldn’t be a problem, and she wouldn’t be a surprising winner, but she’d definitely benefit from a few scratches to her inside.
R5
Whatdoesitallmean
Clock
Fair Practice
#8 WHATDOESITALLMEAN (9/2): Makes her first start for George Weaver, and while I’m not thrilled to see her debut for a tag, she was a $100,000 purchase and she’s running for $150,000, so it’s not a total red flag. Her dam was a stakes winner, she’s been working well, and there’s plenty to like; #3 CLOCK (7/2): Is bred to be a good one, being out of a mare that’s kin to Grade 1-winning 2-year-old Appealing Zophie (the dam of Belmont winner Tapwrit and Grade 2 winner Ride a Comet). She’s another that’s worked well for a strong barn, but her being a $200,000 purchase means the entry here raises some concerns; #9 FAIR PRACTICE (2-1): Didn’t do much running in her debut, which was won by the promising Life Changing. She’s one of two Chad Brown trainees in here, and while Prat rides back, I didn’t see any apparent excuse last time, and these connections aren’t afraid to move on from horses that won’t run at the sport’s highest level.
R6
Taqdeer (MTO)
Silsbee
Annascaul
#3 SILSBEE (8/5): Had an all-time terrible trip at this level and route last time, when she was fourth after steadying, bumping, and checking from start to finish. Manny Franco, who rode her in her previous three races, rides back, and a return to form would make her strictly the one to beat; #6 ANNASCAUL (3-1): Has been off almost nine months ahead of her 2026 debut, and she’s run two of her best races at this route. Her wins here in previous years were sharp, but it’s worth noting those came against New York-breds. She may have to be at her best straight off the bench to contend here; #1 AMANGANI (9/2): Makes her U.S. debut and gets Lasix for the first time, which I always love to see. She hasn’t raced in more than a year, but this barn is great at getting horses ready off of long breaks, and her European form indicates this is a good spot to get her going.
R7
Livin the Breeze
Factory Setting
Charlottesuniverse
#7 LIVIN THE BREEZE (6-1): Returned from a six-month break and ran well to be third in a similar spot. She may have moved a hair early that day, and she may have also needed the race. If she steps forward, she’ll have every chance in what hit me as the most wide-open race of the program; #8 FACTORY SETTING (7/2): Earned the diploma last time out despite Flavien Prat losing the stick. She’s clearly moved forward on turf for Chad Brown, she may be coming to hand later in her 3-year-old season, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see her make it two in a row; #11 CHARLOTTESUNIVERSE (4-1): Stretched out pretty well to be second last time out in the race my top pick exits. The far-outside post is a problem, but the rider switch to Castellano is a big one, and he may enable her to use the natural speed that allowed her to break her maiden going six furlongs in May.
R8
Originality
Bogus Operandi
Zatopek
#4 ORIGINALITY (6-1): Debuts for Todd Pletcher two years after selling for $155,000, a hefty sum considering sire Beau Liam’s modest $6,000 stud fee. His two-back drill going five furlongs was excellent, and his bottom-side pedigree includes a second dam that threw the dam of, among others, champion Echo Zulu and stakes winner Echo Town; #7 BOGUS OPERANDI (5/2): Ran decently to be second in his debut at Delaware and certainly has a right to move forward. I don’t know what he ran against that day, but he beat the third-place finisher by more than seven lengths and races for a trainer that’s hit at a 21% clip with second-time starters; #2 ZATOPEK (4-1): Sold for $625,000 at Keeneland in 2025 and is another with some sharp drills on his sheet. His dam was Grade 1-placed as a 2-year-old, and the tag team of Chad Brown and Flavien Prat can’t be ignored.
R9
Yo Daddy (MTO)
Pass the Hat
Salamis
#3 PASS THE HAT (5/2): Won the Grade 3 Poker two back before finishing a competitive third in the Grade 3 Kelso, where the top two absolutely flew home in the final quarter-mile. The Bernard Baruch has attracted a nice field, but this Bill Mott trainee is clearly in strong form and loves this turf course, which may make him tough to top; #4 SALAMIS (4-1): Capitalized on the drop in class last time out, when he won an optional claimer that produced next-out stakes winner Spirit of St Louis. He won last year’s Grade 1 Hollywood Derby and is capable of firing a big shot, and of the three Chad Brown trainees in here, this is the one I most prefer; #1 FORT WASHINGTON (10-1): Has run some giant races in his career, including in last year’s Grade 1 Arlington Million, which he won. His attempt at a repeat was stymied by a stumble at the start and rating behind a pretty slow pace. If they go fast early, this may be the one they have to hold off (and that morning line price hits me as a significant overlay).
R10
Gilbane
Berman
Fivedollarsforsox
#10 GILBANE (3-1): Came back running off the bench and just missed at this level and route. He was nearly six lengths clear of the rest of the field after stalking and pouncing beneath Manny Franco, who rides back for a barn that seems to be getting things going late in the summer; #5 BERMAN (15-1): May have needed the last-out effort off of such a long break, and I’m willing to give him a look at a price. He showed some early interest that day, and there’s not a ton of early speed in this group. If he’s a bit more fit, he could factor in this at big odds; #4 FIVEDOLLARSFORSOX (5-1): Debuts for Miguel Clement and certainly looks logical beneath Flavien Prat, but I have some doubts. He was a $220,000 purchase across the street two years ago, makes his first start late in his 3-year-old season, and runs for a tag that’s less than a quarter of his original purchase price. I think he’ll get bet, and at a short price, I can’t endorse a runner with more questions than answers.