BANKROLL
Check back Thursday evening!
Want to leave a tip? Click here to send it via Venmo!
SARATOGA SELECTIONS AND ANALYSIS
Best Bet: Carpet City, Race 5
Longshot: Daiquiri Sommelier, Race 6
R1
Flamenco
Domestic Agenda
May December
#3 FLAMENCO (9/2): Debuts for Graham Motion, whose first-time starters sometimes need a race to get going. However, this daughter of Justify is out of blue hen broodmare Spanish Bunny, who’s thrown Grade 1 winners Spendarella and Spanish Queen and multiple stakes winner Spanish Loveaffair. Given that, I think there’s a chance she’s a real runner; #7 DOMESTIC AGENDA (3-1): Is one of two Chad Brown-trained debutantes, and this is the filly I want of that pair. She sold for $290,000 at auction last year, she’s got a right to love this two-turn trip given her pedigree, and Flavien Prat sees fit to ride; #2 MAY DECEMBER (8-1): Showed some speed in her debut for a barn whose runners generally improve with experience. That day’s top two both ran very well, and a step forward could put this one right there at second asking at a price.
R2
Promise Me Amelody
Sparks Will Fly
Carmen Amalia
#9 PROMISE ME AMELODY (6/5): Didn’t run badly when debuting going seven furlongs, which isn’t an easy ask. She was second that day, though, and she cuts back to a six-furlong trip while gaining the services of Manny Franco. There’s a lot to like, and I can’t bet against her; #6 SPARKS WILL FLY (9/2): Debuts for Linda Rice and sports a professional work tab coming into her unveiling. Rice’s numbers with firsters are just so-so, but Jose Ortiz sees fit to ride, and she’ll be a contender if she’s ready to go; #7 CARMEN AMALIA (6-1): Has shown early speed in her last two outings and was most recently third behind my top choice. John Velazquez rode her to a good second two back, and she once again figures to be on or near the lead out of the gate.
R3
Souper Tuscan
Commuted
Baby Yoda
#4 SOUPER TUSCAN (7/2): Won two in a row two and three back before misfiring in the Iowa Sprint at Prairie Meadows. He gets to run with Lasix again, which he’s shown he enjoys, and he could be fast enough to be the speed of the speed in this classy optional claimer; #6 COMMUTED (9/5): Got very good earlier this year with four scores in a row downstate and has hit the board twice in as many races at this stand. I’m not convinced he’s quite as good at Saratoga as he is elsewhere, but he’ll certainly relish off going if there’s moisture in the track from rain earlier in the week; #1 BABY YODA (3-1): Hasn’t run since January, and whether or not he’ll be at his best is a genuine question. However, when he’s been able to run with Lasix at the Spa, he’s been excellent, and Flavien Prat, who won on him twice in 2025, rides back.
R4
Up Before the Dawn
Pros and Cons
Baliage
#3 UP BEFORE THE DAWN (7/2): Comes in from Ellis Park, where she ran incredibly well in her debut. She was ninth of 10 early in a race without much pace, but she made up a lot of ground and pulled away decisively. Flavien Prat may have had some options in the P.G. Johnson, but he lands here, and I think that’s a clue; #1 PROS AND CONS (2-1): Was professional in her maiden-breaking win here last time out, where she went from last to first and pulled away to top a next-out winner. There was a legitimate pace that day, but she did everything you’d want a 2-year-old to do, and I can’t fault anyone who’s bullish on her here; #5 BALIAGE (5/2): Was very well-bet in her debut a few weeks ago and won, but did so while running like a horse that needed experience. Perhaps she got it that day, and maybe she improves considerably at second asking, but she may have to in order to contend with some classy-looking 2-year-old fillies.
R5
Carpet City
Tiger Line
Silver Jackpot
#8 CARPET CITY (5-1): Had some trouble in her debut, but still nearly rallied to get the money at a price for a barn whose firsters usually need one to get going. She should be much sharper here, I think the experience edge she gets matters here, and I’ll be very happy with the morning line price if I can get it come post time; #4 TIGER LINE (7/2) Sold for $240,000 at auction last summer and has been working well for George Weaver. Her dam’s two prior foals to race are winners, Manny Franco hops aboard, and she’s a legitimate contender; #3 SILVER JACKPOT (8-1): Is by Blame and out of a War Front mare, so she has every right to love the lawn. Jena Antonucci hasn’t usually been a trainer to bet with first-time starters, but some of her 2-year-olds have run well this summer, the two-back work looks strong, and she’ll likely be a pretty square price.
R6
Daiquiri Sommelier
Paul’s Recovery
Big Brooklyn
#7 DAIQUIRI SOMMELIER (8-1): Had every right to need his last-out clunker, where he pressed the pace going seven furlongs before fading to finish sixth of seven. This is the first time he’s run without a significant layoff between starts in more than a year, he takes a significant class drop, and his early speed could be an asset out of the Wilson chute; #9 PAUL’S RECOVERY (7/2): Was a decent third against starter allowance foes at Churchill Downs last time out, and I’d like him quite a bit with a better post. However, he’s a plodder from a far-outside post, and while he’s certainly talented enough to beat these, I’m concerned he may not be able to save ground; #3 BIG BROOKLYN (15-1): Merits a look at a price getting to what’s probably the correct level. He sprang a big upset two back before running fifth against starter allowance foes, but he gets a big rider switch to Ricardo Santana, Jr., and that could ensure he’s prominent early on.
R7
Velora
Prime Aurora
Cachorrita
#5 VELORA (6/5): Did everything right in her debut, when she stalked, pounced, and drew away to win easily despite contact turning for home. The last-out bullet drill suggests she’s thriving for Linda Rice, Jose Ortiz rides back, and she seems like a legitimate favorite in the Seeking the Ante; #2 PRIME AURORA (7/2): Won her debut impressively at Gulfstream before finding open stakes foes a bit too tough. This drop into state-bred competition could help her quite a bit, and it also helps that she doesn’t necessarily need the lead in order to run well; #1 CACHORRITA (12-1): Is a tricky read, but she made every pole a winning one in her debut at Canterbury in Minnesota. She may be quick enough to turn the inside draw into an asset, and if she gets that desired front-running trip, she might be the one they have to run down turning for home.
R8
Show Time (MTO)
Bosun
Spiced Up
#2 BOSUN (7/2): Does his best work at Saratoga, where he’s 3-for-4 with a second (all at this route). This is his third start off the layoff for Joe Sharp, Jose Ortiz rides back, and his usual effort gives him every chance, even in what looks like a classy race for this level; #6 SPICED UP (5-1): Hasn’t won since last year’s Grade 3 Mahony, but he suffered a tough beat when second by a head last time out in early-June behind a next-out stakes winner. He’s a closer in a turf sprint, which gives me some pause, but he’s got back races that more than fit here, and the faster they go early, the better his chances figure to be; #5 NO EVIDENCE (9/2): Found the winner’s circle for the first time in a long time last time out, and in doing so he beat my top pick (though that one was coming off a layoff that day). Flavien Prat was aboard that day, and he has the mount again for Miguel Clement.
R9
Heaven’s Bolt
Madeline’s Promise
Tralee Girl
#5 HEAVEN’S BOLT (3-1): Is one of two Linda Rice trainees in here, and she just missed for a $50,000 tag last time out at Churchill. This $20,000 claimer is an aggressive drop, but she’s been working well here of late, and this is an aggressive barn that’s clearly going after the trainer’s title, so I’m willing to give her the nod; #1 MADELINE’S PROMISE (5-1): Hasn’t won in a while but is another dropping in class, and the two best races she’s run have been when she’s run for a tag. That last-out clunker is a lot to swallow, but it was against a better group in the slop. She likely has to go early from the inside draw, and that’s her best game; #8 TRALEE GIRL (6-1): Is the “other” Linda Rice-trained runner, and she goes turf-to-dirt here. She’s got some dirt works that look okay, and the presence of Jose Ortiz might be a clue, but we also haven’t seen her in nearly a year, so there are a lot of unanswered questions here.
R10
Bryant and Cooper
Artistic Success
Roagna
#6 BRYANT AND COOPER (5/2): Is a deep closer that may be pace-dependent, and that’s probably cost her on a few occasions. However, it sure looks like there’s speed in here, and the rider upgrade to Manny Franco is considerable. I think she gets the race shape she wants, and that would make her dangerous; #11 ARTISTIC SUCCESS (10-1): Is the one I like most of the likely speed-types despite a far-outside draw. She showed grit last time out when she dug in and got her nose down over a next-out winner, and she goes first off the claim for a barn that’s had some success this summer; #1 ROAGNA (6-1): Won for the first time in a while last time out, but that was her second start off a long break, and her return two back was a decent second. She seems like she’s in good form coming into this one, and she could be a player despite stepping up in class to face better horses.
R11
Higher Force (MTO)
Nonna Lynne
Dividend Recap
#6 NONNA LYNNE (3-1): Is extremely consistent, with seven top-two finishes in eight starts, and she most recently topped state-breds fairly easily in late-July. This is a class test, and the added furlong is another question she has to answer, but she’s bred for the increased distance and her usual effort gives her a big chance in the Friday finale; #5 DIVIDEND RECAP (4-1): Closed into a very slow pace last time out, but still found a way to get the job done. Manny Franco goes elsewhere, but Jose Ortiz isn’t exactly a bad replacement, and she’ll likely be one of the ones they have to hold off late; #7 CONSENSUS VIEW (7/2): Won her debut impressively and was ambitiously-spotted in the Grade 2 Saratoga Oaks. Those waters proved too deep, and she may appreciate both the class relief and the re-application of Lasix.