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SARATOGA SELECTIONS AND ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Noble Factor, Race 6
Longshot: Blamicker, Race 9

R1

Warnock
Disparate Impact
The Standard

#4 WARNOCK (9/2): Takes a drop in class in the Sunday lid-lifter and goes turf-to-dirt for Joe Sharp. He chased a few next-out winners in his unveiling, and he comes into this one off of a few very solid local workouts. I’m expecting a move forward, and that could get him the money; #8 DISPARATE IMPACT (3-1): Cuts back to a sprint after finishing fourth coming out of the chute a few weeks ago. He takes a slight drop, as he’ll run for a lower claiming tag for trainer Linda Rice, who may be in contention for a trainer’s title at the meet; #9 THE STANDARD (5/2): May very well go favored, but I have some doubts. He was probably supposed to win two back, and he followed that up with a very disappointing effort a few weeks ago. He has back figures that fit, but it’s not like he lays over this field, and I’ll take a mild stand against him given his likely price.

R2

Play With Fire
Unreasonable
Pop Art

#4 PLAY WITH FIRE (8/5): Came back off a long layoff with a strong second behind a stakes-caliber horse last time out. She hasn’t won in a while, but she’s also been running against much better horses. Flavien Prat being elsewhere isn’t ideal, but Manny Franco’s far from a slouch; #6 UNREASONABLE (2-1): Suffered a bad beat least time out, when she led in the waning stages before being nailed at the wire. Both of her last two outings were solid, and her tactical speed could be a plus considering a relative lack of early speed signed on; #5 POP ART (8-1): Probably represents the main speed and exits a distant fourth going a mile here last month. That was off a bit of a break, and perhaps she needed the race. Her two and three-back efforts were both winning ones, and maybe she can dictate terms and hold on for a piece of it.

R3

With a Kiss
Next On Stage
Star Actress

#5 WITH A KISS (3-1): Won her debut impressively and hasn’t raced since, but she’s been working steadily and swiftly for Todd Pletcher ahead of her first try since October. This regally-bred daughter of Gun Runner and Kentucky Oaks winner Cathryn Sophia gets Lasix and John Velazquez, and if she’s ready to run, look out; #4 NEXT ON STAGE (7/2): Was a good-looking two-back winner before finishing a one-paced third after going up in class. She’s entered to be claimed here in her return to this level, Manny Franco once again rides back, and this consistent mare with 22 top-three finishes in 31 career starts has some appeal; #2 STAR ACTRESS (6-1): Drops in out of graded stakes races and was most notably third in the Grade 1 Ashland earlier this season. Cutting back in distance could help her, and she’s run some of her better races with Lasix (which she gets for the first time since early-June in this spot).

R4

Mashallah
Goodall
Mythical

#3 MASHALLAH (7/5): Has risen through the ranks with runaway scores here and at Colonial. The Grade 3 Prioress is her first try in the graded ranks, but she looks like one heck of a prospect, and given her relative inexperience, she could still have room to improve (which is a scary thought for her rivals); #4 GOODALL (8/5): Was third in the Grade 1 Test behind Explora, and this spot likely represents a class drop. I wonder if she’s plateaued a bit, but her usual race is definitely good enough to make her a major player; #1 MYTHICAL (9/2): Has several stakes wins to her credit and didn’t run badly when fourth in a turf experiment last time out. She comes back fairly quickly for this one, and the rail draw may not be ideal, but she’s got back races that would make her competitive.

R5

Randee
Inalienable
Father Rick

#6 RANDEE (4-1): Gets a tepid nod in a 2-year-old maiden race that hits me as very wide-open. This son of Cyberknife hammered for $250,000 earlier this year, though, and is kin to stakes-winning 2-year-old sprinter Long Neck Paula, among others. He’s been working consistently for Linda Rice, and I think he’s well-meant; #1 INALIENABLE (7/2): Runs for Chad Brown and merits respect being by Constitution and out of an Uncle Mo mare. He has one workout that jumps off the page, and perhaps he’ll run to it, but the rail draw isn’t ideal and that mare, while stakes-placed, did her best work on turf, not dirt; #5 FATHER RICK (5/2): Sold for $225,000 and has plenty of bottom-side pedigree. His dam is a full to the dam of Grade 2-winning 2-year-old Spielberg, and diving deeper reveals third dam Clear Mandate, a multiple Grade 1 winner that threw, among others, Grade 1 winner Strong Mandate and multiple graded stakes winner Newfoundland.

R6

My Noble Knight (MTO)
Noble Factor
Iron Sight

#5 NOBLE FACTOR (3-1): Stretched out last time out and ran the best race he’s run in quite a while, finishing a close-up second going 1 1/2 miles. That day’s third-place finisher came back to win, and this barn knows how to get runners ready for marathons like this one. Add in the tactical speed he showed last time, and I think there’s a lot to like; #8 IRON SIGHT (2-1): Was probably left with too much to do last time out, when he was ninth of 10 through slow early fractions and finished third. The problem is, he’s found himself in less-than-ideal situations in all five of his lifetime starts. His best could win, I guess, but I’m not rushing to bet him at his likely price; #2 NOBLE DYNASTY (7/2): Looked live to me last weekend, when he stalked early going a bit shorter but could only manage a fourth-place finish. That wasn’t a bad field he faced that day, though, and he does have some back class to him.

R7

All Bright (MTO)
Pelican Pride
Whatta Weekend

#2 PELICAN PRIDE (7/2): Is a reluctant top pick in a race where I truly don’t have a strong opinion. However, she runs for a tag for the first time after two tough starts this summer. Kendrick Carmouche has the call, and if nothing else, she should at least have every chance to break smoothly against a weaker group; #4 WHATTA WEEKEND (12-1): Looks like the main speed in here and ran well two back when second against a similar group. The last-out clunker wasn’t ideal, but channeling the mid-June form would give him every chance to be the one they have to catch, and he may be a price; #8 SKY LOW LOW (8-1): Is 0-for-11, so she’s clearly had some chances, but she’s run her best races over this turf course and has collected two checks here this summer. At a minimum, we know she can pass others, and if she gets a pace to run at, she might be heard from late.

R8

Tacticality
Toscano
Brigadier General

#1 TACTICALITY (1-1): May be the shortest-priced horse on this card, and for good reason. He runs for a $20,000 tag against restricted claimers after splashing home to an easy win at Monmouth. He’s got enough speed to make the most of the inside draw, and I can’t go against him; #8 TOSCANO (4-1): Takes a drop in class to run for a tag after probably losing all chance at the break last time. I don’t love the post position, but he’s got back races at the distance that would make him reasonably competitive, and if you draw a line through the recent clunker, he’s not illogical; #9 BRIGADIER GENERAL (6-1): Tried turf last time out and didn’t look comfortable over that surface. He’s back on dirt, running for his lowest claiming tag, and could very well be the main speed adding blinkers for David Duggan.

R9

Blamicker
Blue Roof Beau
Calling Card

#6 BLAMICKER (6-1): Ships in from Finger Lakes with local rider Andre Worrie in tow, which always makes me give a horse a second look. He’s a six-time winner in 10 starts (with one of the losing efforts being a failed turf experiment), and I think eh could be the speed of the speed. He may make the lead and prove tough to catch at a bit of a price; #8 BLUE ROOF BEAU (6-1): Ran very well to break his maiden first time out before going to the sidelines for three months. He came back in a pretty tough spot and ran like a horse that needed the race. If he’s more ready here and can get back to the horse we saw in May, he could make amends; #5 CALLING CARD (7/2): Has won two in a row in runaway fashion and may very well go favored. However, he cuts back to a six-furlong trip we’ve never seen him navigate before. His best races have come at a mile, which represents a different set of circumstances. Maybe he’ll make me look silly, but I don’t love him at a short price in a large, competitive field.

R10

The Good Life
Lifesong
Booked

#1 THE GOOD LIFE (7/2): Did absolutely everything right in his debut, when he made the lead and powered away in the stretch. Inside-drawn speed is a powerful thing, and I think they may have him to run down in the Grade 1 Hopeful. If he gets comfortable, as he did first time out, that could prove tough to do; #7 LIFESONG (5-1): Stalked and pounced to win his debut at Ellis Park in late-July, and that day’s rider, Axel Concepcion, makes the trip in for this event. Whether or not the Ellis form will travel is anyone’s guess, and that’s why we may get a bit of a price. If it does, and if others go with my top pick, he could get first run; #3 BOOKED (3-1): Won the Grade 3 Sanford before finishing second behind a much-the-best winner in the Grade 2 Saratoga Special. It’s cool to see a 2-year-old run in all three big races for juvenile colts and geldings, and he’s certainly talented, but I’m not sure more distance is what he wants.

R11

Buttah (MTO)
Creditworthy
Determined Kingdom

#7 CREDITWORTHY (5/2): Feels like one of only a couple of closers in a renewal of the Disco Partner that’s full of early speed. That gives this Chad Brown trainee a definite tactical advantage, and while the lack of Lasix is a question mark, he hits me as the one a bunch of tired horses may have to fend off late; #4 DETERMINED KINGDOM (5-1): Ran well here in early-June before shipping to Colonial, where he added a win and a close-up second. He’s versatile, with enough tactical speed to lead early but lacking the need to do so that others seem to have. He’s also never been worse than third in three local outings; #8 BITE AND STRIKE (6-1): Has won three in a row since being claimed by Linda Rice, most recently scoring in an off-the-turf event last month. Running without Lasix is a question here, too, but he’s certainly in career-best form for a barn that knows how to keep horses on the right track.

R12

Valentine Crusader (MTO)
Tango Tango
Kotlikoff

#7 TANGO TANGO (8-1): Took a step forward when third last time out after having trouble in his debut. Given the relative inexperience compared to most of these, he may have some room to improve. Given that we’ve seen a lot of these many times before without being impressed, I’ll back the relatively-new face in the Sunday nightcap; #12 KOTLIKOFF (6-1): Was done no favors at the post position draw and hasn’t raced since December, but I think there are things to like. He gets Lasix for the first time, and the last race we saw him run was against open maidens at Gulfstream. He was fourth that day, and that’s likely a better group than the one he faces here; #8 DAISY DOO (12-1): Showed something new last time out, when he led most of the way at a big price before fading to fifth. That’s the same race my top pick exits, and a similar race shape looks likely here. Javier Castellano hops aboard and may attempt to nurse him along on the front end.