BANKROLL
BANKROLL: $1,040.83
Singer, songwriter, and American hero Dolly Parton passed away Tuesday. If you can spare four minutes, go watch her performance of “Jolene” at the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame in 2022. She’s accompanied by a litany of world-class musicians, with the Zac Brown Band playing backup and artists like Pink, Pat Benatar, and Sheryl Crow contributing on vocals. It got in my head at about 1 pm Tuesday and hasn’t left.
As an additional gift, I bestow upon you an all-time “dad joke.” My friend Joe lost a ton of weight recently thanks to what he called the Dolly Parton diet. It made Joe lean, Joe lean, Joe lean, Joe leeeeean…
I hear you booing, and I’m not sorry.
WEDNESDAY’S RESULTS: My Pick Four fizzled immediately, and best bet Raised was pulled up in the finale. After scratches, I dropped $48.
THURSDAY’S PLAY: I have two strong opinions back-to-back in the seventh and eighth races, where I really like #9 BLACKJACK and #5 RIVER OF DECEIT. I’ll have $20 win bets on each horse, and I’ll link them in a cold $10 double. If I’m right once, it’s a good day. If I’m right twice, it’s a great one.
TOTAL WAGERED: $50.
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SARATOGA SELECTIONS AND ANALYSIS
Best Bet: River of Deceit, Race 8
Longshot: Manor Park, Race 9
R1
Fun Toph Fun
Daddy’s Ready
Beltandsuspenders
#2 FUN TOPH FUN (9/5): Had an eventful trip in her debut at Monmouth, where she was third after checking in the stretch. It’s safe to say she learned a lot that day, Manny Franco hops aboard, and she’ll be tough if he takes a logical step forward in the Thursday opener; #3 DADDY’S READY (5-1): Debuts for Linda Rice, whose first-out numbers are just-OK, but she has a few OK works downstate at Belmont, including a solid gate drill on August 10th. It’s not like there are any monsters signed on, and jockey Jose Lezcano has started to eat up after a long dry spell to start the meet; #1 BELTANDSUSPENDERS (2-1): Made up ground to be third at this level and route earlier this summer for a trainer whose horses almost always need a race to get going. Flavien Prat hops aboard, and even though the rail draw may not be ideal, she can’t be dismissed.
R2
Wingfoot
Ice House
Royal Merit
#3 WINGFOOT (7/2): Showed improvement first off the claim for Linda Rice, when he led briefly in a similar event at Ellis before settling for second. He was second of 12 that day, and he stalked a pretty hot pace. I think he’s found his friends in here, and that he’s a logical candidate to spring an upset; #6 ICE HOUSE (3/5): May be a heavy favorite, but I have some doubts. Yes, he runs for a tag for the first time, but it’s worth noting he drops in out of a race for New York-breds, so it’s not as big a drop as it could be. He’s got early speed, but he also doesn’t figure to be alone up front, and I don’t think he’s a cinch; #1 ROYAL MERIT (8-1): Has had quite a few chances, but he’s also shown an ability to pass others late, and that could come in handy. If there’s a pace meltdown, he’s the one that could benefit the most.
R3
Wynstock (MTO)
Capitol Hill
Yinzer
#3 CAPITOL HILL (8/5): Drops in after chasing the likes of Deterministic, Mi Bago, and Zulu Kingdom, and he’ll get to run with Lasix again. He won two in a row in his last pair of starts with the medication, and he should get plenty of pace to run at in this spot. Between the class drop and the likely race shape, I think he’ll be tough; #5 YINZER (9/5): Wired the field at this distance last time out, and that day’s runner-up came back to win at next asking. He may face some more heat up front in here, but it’s also possible he’s in career-best form midway through his 4-year-old season; #2 PIERRE (8-1): Seems like the best of the rest, as he’ll look for his third straight score in his first start for new trainer David Jacobson. Whether or not his form will travel to the Spa is anyone’s guess, but he could sit a stalking trip and have first run at a bit of a price.
R4
First Call Bob
Sequential
Bedard
#5 FIRST CALL BOB (8-1): Bailed out heavy chalk players with a big late move last time out. I don’t think he beat much that day, but he’s the only horse in here that has consistently shown he can pass others late. That gives him a tepid nod in what hits me as a wide-open race; #6 SEQUENTIAL (5-1): Stretches out to two turns for Orlando Noda after a too-bad-to-be-true effort last time out. His two-back win going a mile was sharp, and the recent bullet drill inspires some confidence (even if the distance is a bit of a question mark); #4 BEDARD (8/5): Did everything but win going seven furlongs last time out, but settled for second. His only prior outing at this distance was a win last February at Oaklawn, and the presence of Kendrick Carmouche indicates he’ll be forwardly-placed.
R5
Rockabye (AE)
Quartz Mountain (AE)
Brickyard Belle
#14 ROCKABYE (2-1): Needs quite a few scratches to run but looms large if she’s able to make the gate. Her two efforts this meet have been fine, and she was second behind a good-looking winner last time out. It’s unlikely she’ll get to go, but if she does, she hits me as the one to beat; #10 QUARTZ MOUNTAIN (4-1): Only needs two scratches to run and set a very fast pace in her debut. She was a heavy favorite that day, but she may well have needed that first-out effort. A step forward may mean she’s able to make every pole a winning one; #3 BRICKYARD BELLE (8-1): Hammered for $600,000 at auction earlier this year, and of the runners in the body of the field, this is the one I’m most intrigued by. She’s kin to multiple stakes winner Joe Shiesty and Grade 2-placed turfer Johnny Unleashed, among others, and this daughter of Yaupon has every right to be talented.
R6
Swaging (MTO)
Light Cav
Sharons Pharoah
#5 LIGHT CAV (9/2): Cuts back in distance and drops in class for Mike Maker, who’s enlisted Flavien Prat to ride. His prior two-turn races on turf in Indiana were both fine, and there’s enough speed in this field to give him a chance to rally late and get the money; #6 SHARONS PHAROAH (3-1): Takes a big drop in class for Jonathan Thomas, who doesn’t have many horses but wins at a high clip. He started his career with two solid races on the lawn at Santa Anita, and these shallower waters may be what he needs to find the winner’s circle again; #3 MAXIMUM PROMISE (4-1): Gets back to what’s probably the right level after being way wide most of the way last time out. His two-back effort here wasn’t a bad one, and that day’s rider, Ricardo Santana, Jr., is slated to ride back.
R7
Blackjack
Covered Option
Cybertapping
#9 BLACKJACK (5-1): Drops in class, even though the form doesn’t necessarily show it. He’s run against open maiden special weight foes twice (including Booked first time out). Here, he gets a group of runners that sold or RNA’d for $65,000 or less. That’s a significant class drop, and I’m expecting him to run like it; #1 COVERED OPTION (8-1): Made a middle move in his debut before settling for third money. This barn’s first-time starters generally need a race to get going, and Luis Saez seeing fit to ride back hits me as a good thing; #2 CYBERTAPPING (10-1): Is worth a look in his debut at a price off of a very solid gate work downstate. The pedigree (by Cyberknife, out of a Tapit mare) hints that he may want to go longer, but Manny Franco being aboard is a plus, and it’s not often we get a price on a Franco-ridden, Rice-trained runner.
R8
River of Deceit
Wood Island
Titan Ready
#5 RIVER OF DECEIT (5/2): Made up some ground in his debut back in June before settling for second. That was a swiftly-run race, and this outfit’s debuting runners aren’t always fully-cranked. A logical step forward in the Skidmore could mean he breaks his maiden in style; #8 WOOD ISLAND (7/2): Went wire-to-wire in his debut, which came in an off-the-turf race last month. He didn’t beat a lot that day, and he’s only worked once since, but Prat hops on for George Weaver, and he was entered for turf on that occasion, so his form could move to the lawn; #6 TITAN READY (8/5): Has come up just short in a pair of races at Woodbine, including the Victoria in mid-July. Brad Cox trains him now, and he’s as good as it gets, but can his synthetic form go to the grass? Given that there seems to be some talent in this field, it might have to.
R9
How Much Is Enough (MTO)
Coach Case
Manor Park
#4 COACH CASE (8/5): Gets one more chance from me after coming up just short as a 9/5 favorite last time out. He chased a loose-on-the-lead winner that day, and he was four lengths clear of the third-place finisher. A similar race could get him the winner’s share of the purse in the Thursday finale; #3 MANOR PARK (12-1): Tried stakes company last time out and was outclassed. He gets Lasix here, is allowed to run at what’s probably the correct level, and a repeat of the two-back effort (where he edged a next-out winner) would put him right there at a price; #6 NAGUILE (6-1): Feels like the controlling speed and gets Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez. Being the lone speed is often a great thing going two turns on the inner turf, and the field he ran against last time is probably better than this bunch.