BANKROLL
BANKROLL: $990.83
A few days ago on Twitter, I mentioned the unfortunate nature of Kentucky Downs opening on Travers Day. My podcast co-host, Josh Rodriguez, and I discussed it on this week’s episode of “Drank’n Champagne,” available on the On the Wrong Lead network on YouTube and wherever you get your podcasts.
I want Kentucky Downs to do well (like I want all racetracks to do well). However, as I said on the show, I have concerns. We’ve learned that expecting venues to coordinate post times is foolish, with tracks constantly in conflict with one another to the detriment of bettors trying to enjoy multiple locales at once.
In addition, I’m not sold on raising minimums for some bets. There are mathematical arguments in favor of this, but from a marketing standpoint, anything that makes it more expensive to enjoy a day at the races feels like a bad idea.
If I’m wrong about any of this, I’ll be the first to give track management credit. If Josh is right and everyone succeeds, that’s great. I, however, have my doubts.
THURSDAY’S RESULTS: Blackjack faded in the seventh, River of Deceit ran third in the eighth, and I dropped $50. As an aside, I’ll give a shout-out to longtime reader Andrew Cobb, who pointed out that my 9-5 double went along with my Dolly Parton tribute.
FRIDAY’S PLAY: I’ll focus on the middle of today’s card, as I think the fifth and sixth have some value. First, I’ll play $5 doubles starting with #9 CELEBRATE and #10 MANDY STEPH and finishing with #5 COMICAL MISCHIEF, #7 FREEDOM CHARGE, and #8 FIVE GRAND. In addition, I’ll play a wider $1 Pick Three ticket starting in the fifth that goes as follows: 6,9,10 with 4,5,7,8,9 with 2.
TOTAL WAGERED: $45.
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SARATOGA SELECTIONS AND ANALYSIS
Best Bet: Mi Bago, Race 7
Longshot: Comical Mischief, Race 6
R1
Rockabye
Quartz Mountain
Bolt Island
#5 ROCKABYE (8/5): Is a logical favorite in the Friday lid-lifter after back-to-back second-place finishes to start her career. She led late last time out before being reeled in by a good-looking winner, and she was five lengths clear of the rest of that field. That sort of effort could make Friday graduation day; #3 QUARTZ MOUNTAIN (5/2): Set a very fast pace last time out when a 6/5 favorite, but she tired badly in the stretch. She comes in off of a recent four-furlong bullet drill, and at a minimum, they’ll likely have her to catch turning for home; #2 BOLT ISLAND (6-1): Debuts for Mark Casse off of a string of solid local drills and is bred to be a good turf horse. She’s by Bolt d’Oro, out of a Scat Daddy mare, and will finally get a chance to debut after scratching earlier in the summer.
R2
Bellacose
Ah Ca Ira
Miss Lao
#7 BELLACOSE (9/5): Tried far tougher last time out when a distant fifth behind stakes-winner Hot Currency, and she drops to what’s probably the right level over her favorite surface. All three of her victories have come at the Spa, and I think she’ll relish the class relief she gets here; #2 AH CA IRA (3-1): Finished second last month in a race against several runners that also show up here. I don’t think that race was a particularly strong one for the level, but her local record is solid, and she could sit an ideal stalking trip just off the speed; #3 MISS LAO (8-1): May have lost all chance at the start last time out, when she made a bit of a middle move before tiring to finish fifth of eight. She may want a bit longer than this 6 1/2-furlong distance, but her two-back win downstate was strong and she’s capable of running a good one on her best day.
R3
Spoiler
Fever Night
Polar Bear Plunge
#5 SPOILER (1-1): Is one of two runners for an owner vying for the owner’s title, and he was most recently second running for more than double this claiming price. That came in the slop, but it also came against horses that appear much better than these. A similar type of run may mean the race is for second; #6 FEVER NIGHT (5-1): Has won two in a row going a mile and stretches out to two turns. I’m not crazy about the distance (he’s 0-for-4 going nine furlongs), but he looks like the main early speed, and if he gets comfortable up front, perhaps he’ll get brave; #7 POLAR BEAR PLUNGE (6-1): Is the “other” Flying P runner here, and he just missed at this level and route in early-July. A claim was voided that day, which raises some questions, but that day’s winner came back to repeat at next asking, and Manny Franco has the call.
R4
Norwich
Normandy Coast
Shoot the Nickel
#1 NORWICH (3-1): Gets a tepid nod in what hits me as the first wide-open race on the card. He got his nose down a few weeks ago in his first start off the claim for Fernando Abreu, and that came after a solid second going seven furlongs in June. Santana sees fit to ride back, and sitting a stalking trip would give him a big shot; #8 NORMANDY COAST (4-1): Beat my top pick last time out and goes up in class on paper for this event. Rob Falcone claimed him out of that race, and that barn has been cold this summer, but a repeat of the last-out effort would make him competitive; #6 SHOOT THE NICKEL (5/2): Is the morning line favorite after being edged by my top selection last time out. He’s a deep closer that may need quite a bit to go right, and that may be contributing to his tendency to run second. However, he’d benefit from either a pace meltdown or rain, as he’s at his best over off going.
R5
Revenge of the Sis (MTO)
Celebrate
Mandy Steph
#9 CELEBRATE (6-1): Had an eventful trip in her debut going two turns, where she rallied to be fourth after some trouble and a wide trip. Everything about her pedigree says she’ll get better with experience, and I don’t think she has to move forward much to get the money at a bit of a price; #10 MANDY STEPH (7/2): Was third in the race my top pick exits. She’ll have to navigate a very wide post on the inner turf, which could be problematic given her apparent running style. However, she’s another that could improve second time out, and if she does, she’d be an unsurprising winner; #6 SELLONTHENEWS (9/2): Debuts for Chad Brown after selling at a prestigious event overseas late last year. Her European pedigree is attractive, as is the presence of Flavien Prat, but that pedigree hints she may need some time, and while Monmouth works for this barn aren’t the disqualifying factors they were in some years past, they do raise some questions.
R6
Five Grand
Freedom Charge
Comical Mischief
#8 FIVE GRAND (6-1): Ran well when third in his debut last month after going wide into the stretch and making up quite a bit of ground. He was favored that day, and he’s since turned in a sharp two-back drill over the Oklahoma track. George Weaver has two in here, but this is the one I prefer; #7 FREEDOM CHARGE (7/2): Was third from start to finish in a race won by a talented first-time starter. Blinkers go on, Jose Ortiz stays on, and he figures to be one of the ones dictating terms from the jump; #5 COMICAL MISCHIEF (15-1): May not look like much, but anytime a prominent Finger Lakes barn comes to Saratoga with a local rider in tow, I pay attention. There are some solid works on his tab, and it’s not like there are any apparent monsters in here. This may be one of the couple of spots every year where a barn and rider ship in and take down a solid purse.
R7
Doc Sullivan (MTO)
Mi Bago
Spirit of St Louis
#4 MI BAGO (2-1): Has spent most of the summer going against some of the best turf horses on the circuit. He gets significant class relief in the West Point, and while there’s some other early speed in here, I simply think he’s better than this bunch, based off of his runaway win in the Kingston over several of these; #2 SPIRIT OF ST LOUIS (3-1): Hasn’t won in a while, but he’s one of only a few horses in here that doesn’t want to be forward. He’ll sit back and make one run, and if others go with my top pick early, he’d be the most likely beneficiary; #8 GEORGE BRIGGS (7/2): Chased the top two home in the Kingston, and he’s probably a better horse on Lasix, which he was on in a solid, professional score two back. However, he’s another that will do his best running late, and Prat lands here when he likely had a few options.
R8
Storm Miami
Silvology
Massarat
#6 STORM MIAMI (4-1): Hasn’t won in over a year, but she looks like the absolute lone speed in the Grade 3 Waya, and that’s dangerous in marathons over the inner turf course. She ran well to be second behind Survie in the Grade 2 Glens Falls, and that one bounced out of that effort to win the Grade 1 Christophe Clement against the boys; #8 SILVOLOGY (7/2): Keyed one of my biggest scores of the summer last time out, when she stretched back out to this distance and won going away over a next-out winner. This is a step up in class, and the race shape does concern me, but she does her best work in these races and we know she can run well without Lasix; #4 MASSARAT (9/2): Was a two-back winner against optional claiming foes downstate before running fourth in the Glens Falls. That race, like this one, didn’t have much early speed signed on, which isn’t ideal, but it’s also possible that day’s 12-furlong trip was just a bit further than the one she truly wants.
R9
Sweet Note
Bam’s Bliss Kiss
City Blocks
#9 SWEET NOTE (7/2): Did all the dirty work up front last time and was beaten a head by Mursal, who came back to win again not long after that event. She’s versatile, being able to win on the lead or from off the pace, and the outside post should give Jose Ortiz plenty of options out of the gate; #4 BAM’S BLISS KISS (3-1): Certainly looks like the main speed, and she gets class relief after a pair of duds against stakes foes. There’s a chance she’s off form given just how disappointing those outings were, but the class drop could easily wake her up, and the return of Lasix is also a plus; #6 CITY BLOCKS (5-1): Takes a big class jump after an easy score against $12,500 claimers. She was, in fact, claimed by Linda Rice that day, and she protects this mare in this spot. Seeing Flavien Prat aboard makes me think these connections believe she’s got some potential to improve.
R10
Music in Motion (MTO)
Joker On Fire
Illmatic
#8 JOKER ON FIRE (3-1): Is one of many exiting a common race earlier this month, and he was an unlucky loser that day, being beaten just a head after a wide trip. He’s run well here several times this summer, Jose Lezcano has heated up after a rough start, and I think he’s live in the nightcap; #1 ILLMATIC (7/5): Had some trouble in that event, as he was stymied until mid-stretch before coming with his run. However, I’m not sure how much more trouble he had than that day’s runner-up (my top pick here), who conceded quite a bit of ground. This one could win, but the likely disparity on the tote board may be too big for my liking; #2 THREE THIRTEEN (15-1): Cuts back to what’s likely his preferred trip after tiring going a mile last time out. His two-back effort saw him stalk a hot pace while wide, and I think he could factor here at a price if he can work out a trip that allows him to save a bit more ground.