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SARATOGA SELECTIONS AND ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Caroline St. Beat, Race 5
Longshot: Noble Dynasty, Race 4

R1

Up to the Task
Beau Valor
Exhibit

#3 UP TO THE TASK (5/2): Hammered for $525,000 earlier this year and has been working well for Chad Brown ahead of his unveiling in the Travers Day opener (scheduled for 11:05 am Eastern; wake up early, boys and girls!). He’s by the speedy Nashville and boasts a female family that includes the dams of several stakes horses, including Grade 1 winner Sweet Lulu; #6 BEAU VALOR (4-1): Sold for the exact same price at Keeneland last year and is another that’s turned in some impressive drills before his debut. He’s kin to multiple stakes winner Kale’s Angel, and his dam is a half-sister to Grade 1-placed 2-year-old Ready to Repeat, among others; #5 EXHIBIT (8-1): Debuts for Todd Pletcher, who’s long been one of the best in the business with first-time starters. The last two works, in particular, look very sharp. If there’s hesitation here, it’s because the bottom-side pedigree, while strong, leans more to turf, not dirt.

R2

Sculcos Folly
Caldo Candy
Anyway

#6 SCULCOS FOLLY (8/5): Cuts back to one turn after running second as a 3/5 favorite in the New York Derby. This is against open company, but this is the route he wants, he gets to run with Lasix, and he sure looks like the main speed in here; #1 CALDO CANDY (4-1): Was a close-up second behind a promising horse at this level and route in July. That race came in the slop, so he may have a right to improve, and he’s run some of his best races over this surface; #5 ANYWAY (6-1): Has won three of his last four outings and steps up into open company after back-to-back scores against fellow New York-breds. He’s clearly in strong form for Linda Rice, and Manny Franco has ridden him to victory in each of those outings earlier in the meet.

R3

Liberty’s Secret
Lightning Strike
K Gun

#8 LIBERTY’S SECRET (5/2): Didn’t break well last time out and could only manage a runner-up finish as a 3/2 favorite. Her two-back win was excellent, and the rider switch to Jose Ortiz is a big one. If she can get away from the gate more smoothly here, she’ll have every reason to be a major player; #2 LIGHTNING STRIKE (3-1): Set a fast pace on the Fourth of July last time out before running second behind Grace and Grit, who’s going pretty well this summer. There isn’t a ton of other speed in here, and she could get a bit more comfortable early on as a result; #6 K GUN (5-1): Was third in the race my top pick exits after three straight victories downstate. She was wide last time out, which could have hindered her run, and her usual stalking trip would give her a chance to get first run turning for home.

R4

Gulfy (MTO)
Noble Dynasty
Print

#1 NOBLE DYNASTY (8-1): Cuts back in distance and gets to run against fellow 3-year-olds in this spot, both of which should really help him. He hasn’t won in a while, but he’s also run in several tough spots, and this is arguably the easiest spot he’s landed in since he broke his maiden in September; #4 PRINT (7/2): Is another dropping back down in class after a few tries against stakes foes. He ran fourth in the Grade 2 Hall of Fame a few weeks ago, and he’s able to run with Lasix here, which has shown it can move him forward; #5 KING’S REMARK (2-1): May be favored in here, but I have some doubts. He’s had gate issues in each of his three starts to date, and trainer Miguel Clement also saddles #8 ALTO BLUES (6-1). If this one was so well-meant, why is the barn also running a second horse in this spot?

R5

Calling Card (MTO)
Caroline St. Beat
Sammy C Note

#4 CAROLINE ST. BEAT (2-1): Came back running in his first start since November, when he was a close-up second in the Rick Violette behind Chummers, who came back to win another stakes race. This one gets Lasix for the first time on the drop in class, and I think he’ll be very hard to beat; #8 SAMMY C NOTE (4-1): Just missed last time out at this level, and he showed he could go two turns. Jose Ortiz hops aboard, and he’s shown enough speed in sprint races to make me think he could sit an ideal trip on or near the lead; #11 NEWLYN (15-1): Doesn’t draw a great post here, but he was fourth in the race my top pick exits and goes third off the bench for George Weaver. He’s another getting first-time Lasix, and if Ricardo Santana, Jr., can find a way to save some ground, he could get a piece of this at a price.

R6

Saytara
Foxiest
Psalm Beauty

#6 SAYTARA (10-1): Debuts for Todd Pletcher in what looks like a loaded baby race and may provide some value. This daughter of Constitution is out of a graded stakes-winning mare, several of her workouts look sharp, and few trainer/jockey combos have been more productive at Saratoga than Pletcher and John Velazquez; #3 FOXIEST (2-1): Carries high expectations into her unveiling as a daughter of Gun Runner and Grade 1-winning sprinter Covfefe. Several of her works at Churchill look sharp, and she has every right to be a good one for trainer Brad Cox, but I need more value than we’re likely to get; #9 PSALM BEAUTY (8-1): Sold for $625,000 at Keeneland last year and has the Steve Asmussen work pattern I love to see. Her two-back bullet drill jumps off the page. If there’s any hesitation here, it’s that Asmussen’s numbers with first-time starters are just so-so, and this looks like a talented field.

R7

Shelzawa
Bella Knows
Counterintuitive

#5 SHELZAWA (3-1): Rallied to break her maiden here in early-July and tries winners for the first time. That’s not an easy thing to do, but that last start looks better now that the runner-up came back to graduate next time out, and Prat sees fit to ride back for Chad Brown; #3 BELLA KNOWS (5/2): Was way, way wide last time out and still managed to finish fourth of 12 beaten less than two lengths. She’s definitely pace-dependent, and that’s not ideal, but at least there seems to be some speed signed on, and that could help her; #9 COUNTERINTUITIVE (4-1): Is the second half of a strong 1-2 punch for Brown in this event. She hasn’t run since October, but she’s been working consistently since June ahead of her return and gets Lasix for the first time. The layoff is a concern, but if she’s ready, she could be a major player.

R8

Englishman
Local Knowledge
Deep Flame

#4 ENGLISHMAN (3/5): Will justifiably be one of the heaviest favorites on the card in the Grade 1 Allen Jerkens. He absolutely freaked in the Grade 1 Woody Stephens on Belmont Day, and his only loss to date came going a mile (which is probably a hair longer than he wants). If he’s his usual self, the race may be for second money; #5 LOCAL KNOWLEDGE (4-1): Sprang a mild upset in winning the Grade 2 Amsterdam, but that effort wasn’t a total shock. This lightly-raced Todd Pletcher trainee ran very well in his debut at Keeneland and may have needed the two-back run off the bench. If my top pick stubs his toe, he hits me as the most likely beneficiary; #2 DEEP FLAME (3-1): Overpowered the field in the Grade 3 Maxfield last time out, and he seems to be coming to hand for Brad Cox. However, this bunch hits me as a much, much tougher group, and he may need a new lifetime-best effort in order to contend with these heavy hitters.

R9

Fully Subscribed
Scottish Lassie
Nerazurri

#2 FULLY SUBSCRIBED (6/5): Came flying late to take the Grade 2 Shuvee and faces that day’s main rival again in the Grade 1 Personal Ensign. This, in fact, seems like a very similar spot, one where she’ll likely have pace to close into late. If that materializes, we could see some deja vu; #4 SCOTTISH LASSIE (7/5): Appeared primed to take advantage of an ideal trip last time out, but she hit a wall late and got reeled in by my top pick. Her best effort is certainly good enough to give her a chance, but she had every advantage in the book over several of these last month and couldn’t seal the deal; #3 NERAZURRI (6-1): Was third behind a much-the-best winner in the Grade 2 Molly Pitcher, which was contested over a quirky sealed track. Her effort two back at Thistledown was very good, and given her runs at Oaklawn earlier this year, I think she could clunk up for a piece of it at a bit of a price.

R10

Naomis
Deep Learning
Queen of Hawaii

#5 NAOMIS (3-1): Makes her U.S. debut for Chad Brown in the Grade 2 Lake Placid. Her last-out effort in a French Group 2 was very, very good, as she got the money going a mile at Chantilly. Flavien Prat hops on this one as opposed to her stablemate, which feels like a clue; #4 DEEP LEARNING (4-1): Ran well in her return to the races when second in the Grade 3 Lake George. She made up ground in a race without a lot of early speed, and she could be sitting on an improved performance for a barn that holds a powerful hand here; #1 QUEEN OF HAWAII (2-1): Also returned from a break with a solid performance, as she topped optional claiming foes in her first start since October. That was a solid effort, to be sure, but this is a stronger group, and closers on the inner turf often need quite a bit to go right (especially from an inside post).

R11

Book’em Danno
Tip Top Thomas
Senior Officer

#5 BOOK’EM DANNO (1-1): Is looking to defend his title in the Grade 1 Forego, and he looks like the horse he was a season ago. His effort in the Grade 3 True North two back was excellent, and a win here would be the sixth in seven local starts for one of the easiest horses in the game to root for; #1 TIP TOP THOMAS (5-1): Did everything but win last time out in his first try since November, when he shook clear after helping to set a fast pace and got reeled in. For a top-level sprint, there’s not a ton of early speed signed on, and he shouldn’t be bothered by the extra distance; #6 SENIOR OFFICER (7/2): Was the one who reeled in my second choice last time out, as he took advantage of a perfect ride and ideal setup. Irad Ortiz, Jr., being sidelined hurts, but Luis Saez is no slouch. My bigger question is, can he put forth a high-quality effort without Lasix, which he’s had in every start of his career so far?

R12

Ways and Means
Kilwin
Eclatant

#7 WAYS AND MEANS (9/5): Does her best work at the Spa and looms large in the Grade 1 Ballerina. She’s 5-for-6 at Saratoga, including a win in the Grade 2 Bed o’ Roses last time out. This is her preferred distance at her preferred track, and I think she’ll sit her preferred “stalk and pounce” trip; #2 KILWIN (8-1): Is 3-for-3 on dirt and goes second off the bench while returning to the scene of her biggest win. She rallied from way back to take last year’s Grade 1 Test, and she could get another ideal setup with plenty of speed signed on in here. The faster they go early, the better her chances figure to be; #12 ECLATANT (3-1): Is 3-for-3 this year with two graded stakes wins, both in photo finishes. She earned a nose victory in the Grade 1 Madison two back at Keeneland, prevailed by a head in the Grade 2 Chicago, and could have plenty of options from the far-outside post.

R13

Golden Tempo
The Puma
Renegade

#9 GOLDEN TEMPO (5/2): Will look to add to his trophy case with a win in another prestigious race for 3-year-olds, the Grade 1 Travers. He’s been training very well following a brief illness, he should have plenty of pace to chase, and he showed in the Grade 1 Belmont that, while he likes to make one run, he doesn’t necessarily need an ideal setup; #4 THE PUMA (8-1): Ran like a horse that needed a race in the Grade 1 Haskell, when he bobbled at the break and was a pretty distant fourth. However, he runs like a horse that will love this 1 1/4-mile trip, and he’s bred for it, too. He’s got more early speed than he showed last month at Monmouth, and he could get first run turning for home; #5 RENEGADE (3-1): Rebounded from two Triple Crown disappointments to win the Grade 2 Jim Dandy, where he was way back most of the way before making a huge late run. On his best day, he can win this, and he’ll likely get a pace to close into, but are we about to find out for sure that 10 furlongs isn’t his best game?

R14

Alone Time
That’s How We Love
Tax Holiday

#7 ALONE TIME (12-1): Is a tepid top pick in a mess of a finale, and we may very well get a price. She’s run against stakes foes in her last three starts and drops in class, which means she gets Lasix. Her lone start with Lasix was easily her best race to date, and if she can recapture that form, she’ll be in with a shot; #4 THAT’S HOW WE LOVE (6/5): Was a runaway winner of her debut at Monmouth, where she scampered away late and hit the wire clear by more than eight lengths. She was very, very visually impressive that day. The question is, just what did she beat? This is a big step up in class, and the morning line price is very, very short; #1 TAX HOLIDAY (9/2): Earned the diploma two back at Tampa and was spotted ambitiously in the Grade 2 Wonder Again, where she wasn’t competitive. This is probably the right level for her at this point, and at least backers get the presence of Flavien Prat for trainer Chad Brown.