SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll for Sunday, August 23rd

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,088.83

I’m going to try very, very hard not to be a broken record about the situation I’ve discussed in this section a few times this week. However, the Saratoga meet is the one time of year where I have a good-sized platform, and if I don’t use it for what I think is right, I’d feel like I’m wasting it.

Horse racing is a strange place. There have been situations that people have blown wildly out of proportion, and there are some matters and discussions that I have actively avoided because nothing good could come from engaging with them.

The issue with Marshall Gramm, HISA, and confidential data being distributed by some within the game who should have known better is not one of those overblown issues. It’s a genuine crisis, one where the people who were supposed to be the responsible adults in the room (including an industry stalwart and a regulatory body with the word “integrity” right in its name) completely, totally, and unequivocally failed.

I love this game. I want to see it not just survive, but thrive. Growth and progress sometimes have to come from attacking difficult situations head-on, making tough calls, and holding people accountable. I sincerely hope that’s the direction we’re going in. If not, we’re in trouble.

SATURDAY’S RESULTS: Maria Callas saved ground and looked loaded turning for home. Unfortunately, she had nowhere to go when it mattered, and I dropped $50.

SUNDAY’S PLAY: I’ll focus on the seventh, where I’m betting #1 ALL OF IT bounces back after a failed try against stakes company. I’ll have a $20 win bet on her, and I’ll single her in $5 doubles that start in the seventh and end with #4 TOUGH STREET and #7 KYLE’S MOM in the eighth.

TOTAL WAGERED: $30.

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SARATOGA SELECTIONS AND ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Ice Chocolat, Race 1
Longshot: Minorinconvenience, Race 9

R1

Secured Landing (MTO)
Ice Chocolat
Conman

#2 ICE CHOCOLAT (2-1): Looms large in the Sunday opener as he returns to the scene of his biggest triumph. He won the Grade 3 Poker here back in 2024, and while he may not be the same horse now as he was then, I don’t think he has to be. He’s run well enough at Woodbine for Mark Casse to make me think he’ll be very tough to top; #5 CONMAN (5-1): Is protected from being claimed in this spot, which is one of my favorite things to see in the form. He’s 2-for-4 over this turf course, and while there’s a layoff to contend with, he’s been working well leading up to his return for a barn that knows how to get comebackers ready to go; #6 PRESIDER (5/2): Looks like the main speed and just missed at a similar level back in mid-July. This barn hasn’t sent out many horses, but it’s hitting at a 24% clip, and Manny Franco seeing fit to ride back is a good thing.

R2

Motawaali (MTO)
And the Runner Is
Broadcast

#2 AND THE RUNNER IS (8/5): Was a late scratch last weekend after an incident that injured jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr., and he’ll get another try here. His debut was solid, as he was second behind a decent-looking winner, and he has every right to improve at second asking beneath Irad’s brother, Jose; #8 BROADCAST (4-1): Is one of two Miguel Clement trainees in here, and she’s bred to love going long on the turf. She’s out of the mare Shared Account, who pulled off a shocker to win the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf (side note, I still remember needing longshot Keertana there for a big-to-me score); #1 HARBAUGH (5/2): Led briefly in his turf debut before settling for second behind a winner that appears to have a lot of talent. This is another Mark Casse trainee that could be improving with experience, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see him on or near the lead.

R3

Hot Currency
Tennessee Belle
Vekoma’s Diva

#1 HOT CURRENCY (9/5): Scratched out of a stakes race Friday to run here, and that was probably the right move (especially given how impressive Iron Orchard was). She gets to sprint with Lasix here, and while there’s other speed in this event, her last-out romp was a very sharp performance, and a repeat of that effort could get her the money; #7 TENNESSEE BELLE (2-1): Makes her first start in nearly a year and showed some potential as a 2-year-old. She broke her maiden here at second asking for then-trainer John Ortiz. She shows up for Todd Pletcher, and while the works look so-so on paper, he’s very good at getting horses ready off the bench; #4 VEKOMA’S DIVA (5-1): Has been training very, very well ahead of her first start since May. She adds blinkers for George Weaver, and while her two starts to date have been against Arkansas-breds, those drills indicate she could be ready for this jump up the class ladder.

R4

Gadget Play
Commitment Fund
Ize a Runner

#6 GADGET PLAY (9/5): Has run well twice in as many starts to date, and third time could be the charm. He set a solid pace in the slop last time out in a race won by a well-meant Bill Mott trainee, and the third-place finisher that day came back and won. I expect him to sit an ideal front-running trip beneath Luis Saez; #5 COMMITMENT FUND (5/2): Made up a lot of ground late in a race that fell apart and, in doing so, nearly overcame a nightmare trip. Flavien Prat rides back for Chad Brown, and while I usually don’t love closers in Wilson chute races, there could clearly be some talent here; #4 IZE A RUNNER (4-1): Is the second Brown trainee in this field and was a one-paced fifth in the race my top pick exits. He’s bred to want more distance, which he gets here, and he may not have appreciated the wet track a few weeks ago.

R5

Oil Capital (MTO)
Run Curtis Run
Twisted Filigree

#1 RUN CURTIS RUN (5/2): Is a tepid top pick in a classy race for this level. He hasn’t won in a while, but he’s run well here several times and he’s clearly a better horse on Lasix, which he gets here after two starts against stakes company. The last time Prat rode him was here last summer, and he was an impressive winner that day; #2 TWISTED FILIGREE (3-1): Was claimed after running third behind a winner that came back to repeat on Friday as a heavy favorite. He looks like the main speed in this spot, and while he hasn’t won in quite a while, he could be the one they have to catch after getting a fairly easy lead, and that would make him dangerous; #4 BILLIONAIRES ROW (10-1): Is worth a look at a price going first off the claim for an astute barn. He won at this route a year ago, and he had some trouble at this level last time out when he was beaten just two lengths.

R6

Barb
Twenty Four Mamba
Lunar Module

#4 BARB (4-1): Won a swiftly-run race for the level last time out and was claimed by Joe Sharp, who does great work with new acquisitions. This is a class test for him, to be sure, but his recent resume looks far better if you throw out the two-back clunker on turf. A step forward would make him a major player; #1 TWENTY FOUR MAMBA (9/2): May have needed his last-out effort, where he made a middle move into a fast pace and faded to finish fifth of seven. That was his first start in over four months, and he should be more fit second off the bench in this spot; #7 LUNAR MODULE (6-1): Cuts back from a one-mile race at Ellis to run here and is the “other” Joe Sharp trainee. His win at a similar distance two back was very solid, and there should be some pace signed on, which would set things up for a closer like this one.

R7

Nina Kay (MTO)
All of It
Brokealltherules

#1 ALL OF IT (9/2): Didn’t run well against stakes company last time out, as the leader set an easy pace and never came back to the field. She gets to run with Lasix in this spot, which should help her, and Manny Franco rides back when he almost certainly had several options (including my third choice); #8 BROKEALLTHERULES (4-1): Has found her form on the Saratoga lawn with two wins in her last two starts. She never trailed on either occasion, and she’ll likely be forwardly-placed here with Flavien Prat back aboard. The question is, can she clear this field going into the first turn, or will she be forced wide?; #3 DIVIDEND RECAP (6-1): Hasn’t run a bad one since going to the sidelines from late-2023 to mid-2025, and she exits a good-looking score where she rallied in an event with very little speed. That running style doesn’t often suit the inner turf course, but she’s consistent, and her usual effort likely gets her a piece of it.

R8

Tough Street
Kyle’s Mom
Moon Gate

#4 TOUGH STREET (7/2): Was second-best behind a runaway winner at this route last time out, and she takes a steep drop into this lower-level claiming event. She hasn’t won in quite some time, but she’s hit the board in eight of nine local starts and, incredibly, has never been worse than third in 15 starts at this one-mile distance; #7 KYLE’S MOM (3-1): Was third at this level and route in early-July and was claimed out of that race by a barn that can move horses forward quickly. She was nearly my top pick, but the post position certainly isn’t ideal, and she may have a tough time saving ground; #1 MOON GATE (10-1): Is worth a look at a price given her early speed and the inside draw. Those are assets at this route, and she finished a close second behind my second choice at this distance earlier this year at Aqueduct.

R9

Onebigbeautfulbill
Talk to Me Jimmy
Minorinconvenience

#4 ONEBIGBEAUTFULBILL (3-1): Tries two turns for the first time in the Albany, but he’s bred to love it and he hasn’t done anything wrong to this point. His grinding style hints that he’ll appreciate more ground, and given that this will be just his third career start, this Brad Cox trainee may still be improving; #6 TALK TO ME JIMMY (8/5): Relished the drop into the state-bred ranks with a win in the New York Derby at Finger Lakes. This is a logical next step, and he should be prominent early, but there’s other speed signed on in here, this barn has been ice-cold for most of the summer, and I’m not inclined to back him at his likely short price; #3 MINORINCONVENIENCE (8-1): Goes back to New York-bred competition after several tries against open company. He was wide when a distant fourth behind Sea Strike and Chief Wallaby in the Curlin, and these are shallower waters. We know he likes Saratoga given his two wins here last year, and he could provide value in the exotics.

R10

Salvation (MTO)
Vivaldi
Tamarin

#1 VIVALDI (9/2): Runs for a tag for the first time in the Sunday nightcap after a disappointing 2026 debut at Churchill Downs. That was his first try since September, so he had a right to need that race. Given the connections, I’m not sure we’ll get the morning line price, but I do think he merits plenty of respect on the drop in class; #9 TAMARIN (10-1): Comes off a six-month layoff and has only raced once prior to this. He helped set a legitimate pace at Gulfstream that day, and he’s another getting some class relief for a solid barn. At a minimum, I expect him to be prominent early; #7 FRANKLIN DELANO (3-1): Has probably the best prior race of anyone in this field, as he was a good second behind stakes winner Bottas here exactly one year ago. However, he hasn’t progressed at all since that effort, and while Ricardo Santana, Jr., is no slouch, he’s not one of Todd Pletcher’s first-call riders. At this price, I’ll try to beat him.

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