BANKROLL
BANKROLL: $1,241.43
I’ve got two things to handle in today’s blurb, and the first wrote itself.
NYRA and Churchill Downs are promoting a new six-race championship series for 3-year-olds beginning in 2027, and there are some gaping holes. This series does not include the Preakness, and it also excludes both the Haskell and the Pennsylvania Derby. As a result, the modern Triple Crown may well have been murdered, and high-profile races for 3-year-olds later in the year are being squeezed.
In addition, while spacing out races sounds appealing now, what happens when horses inevitably can’t handle that schedule? We’re already seeing that this year, with Todd Pletcher noting Renegade may have been short in the Belmont because five weeks wasn’t enough time between races.
Secondly, my wife, a fifth-grade teacher, is preparing for the start of the 2026-27 school year. She’s got an Amazon wish list in case anyone wants to help her out, and I’m always happy to spread the word. If I’ve helped you in the past, or if you want to contribute to a cause I can confirm is worthy, you can do so here.
SUNDAY’S RESULTS: Nobals ran well, but could only manage a third-place finish (on a day where many of my top picks showed up but had to settle for minor awards). I dropped $32.
WEDNESDAY’S PLAY: We’ll head to the third, a race where I had a strong opinion last Wednesday before racing was cancelled. Once again, I like #2 NOBLE GLOW, and I’ll keep it simple with a $20 win bet.
TOTAL WAGERED: $20.
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SARATOGA SELECTIONS AND ANALYSIS
Best Bet: Noble Glow, Race 3
Longshot: Fil Dor, Race 1
R1
McTigue
Fil Dor
Roja Redemption
#8 MCTIGUE (9/5): Earned Grade 1 glory last time out and is a deserving favorite in the Grade 1 A.P. Smithwick. He picks up 12 pounds in weight from his recent score, but he’s done his best running over this course, and if you toss the two-back race where he fell, you’re left with a runner that’s still improving; #1 FIL DOR (8-1): Is proven at this level and was bet last time out, when he was a distant sixth in the Grade 1 Leo O’Brien. I think he’s better than he showed that day, and we may get an inflated price on a horse that’s run well against similar several times; #6 ROJA REDEMPTION (4-1): Gets a considerable amount of weight from several of these in here, and he’s a consistent sort that hasn’t done much wrong over fences. The only question mark is whether or not he can deliver without Lasix, but if he can, he’ll have a chance in the Wednesday opener.
R2
Quiddity
Fabian’s Princess
Carmen Amalia
#6 QUIDDITY (9/5): Hasn’t run since December, but comes back against state-breds, gets Lasix for the first time, and attracts Irad Ortiz, Jr., which all could put her over the top. Her debut here last summer, while eventful, was solid, and if she’s ready, she hits me as the one to beat; #2 FABIAN’S PRINCESS (5/2): Is another coming off the bench, as we haven’t seen her since her debut in November. That day’s winner came back to repeat, though, and this one gets Lasix, blinkers, and Flavien Prat for her first race in over eight months; #7 CARMEN AMALIA (7/2): Moved forward considerably last time out, when she was a good second behind a talented filly that ran a hard-luck second here last week. The jockey change is a bit of a concern, but she figures to be a factor early, and perhaps she’ll get brave if she gets comfortable.
R3
Noble Glow
Wedelia
Maria Louise
#2 NOBLE GLOW (9/2): Showed speed in her debut late last year at Churchill before going to the sidelines. She’s been working steadily (and well) for Chad Brown ahead of her return, and she sure seems like the main speed. Given the inside draw, the first-time Lasix, and the presence of Flavien Prat, I think she’s very, very dangerous; #4 WEDELIA (6/5): Has run fairly well in two tries to date, most recently finishing second going two turns in the slop at Churchill. She’s yet to see a fast dirt track, so her best may still be in front of her, and she gets a better draw here than she would’ve gotten if this race had gone last Wednesday; #3 MARIA LOUISE (5/2): Is bred to be a good one and sold accordingly, hammering for $850,000 back in 2024. This daughter of Gun Runner and three-time Grade 1 winner Stopchargingmaria comes in off of a few sharp gate works for Todd Pletcher, but this is a tough route to debut at.
R4
Purloin (MTO)
Relaxx
Serendipity
#1 RELAXX (7/2): Showed back class in Europe last season, when she ran well in several high-level events against top-class turf distaffers. She cuts back after just missing going longer last time out, and Flavien Prat seeing fit to ride back hits me as a vote of confidence; #7 SERENDIPITY (9/5): Sure looks like the main speed in here, and she may have needed the last-out effort at Churchill. She finished second that day in what doubled as her first try in nearly a year. The outside post isn’t ideal, but she may be quick enough to clear this bunch early; #2 UNREASONABLE (3-1): Ran a tough-luck second in a similar spot downstate and boasts a win here last summer. She may have needed the two-back effort after a long break, and between this one and my top pick, I think Miguel Clement holds a powerful hand.
R5
Sharons Beach
Ramajay
Mr. Hooligan
#6 SHARONS BEACH (8/5): Was second in a swiftly-run race in Indiana last time out and is one of a few contenders today for trainer Jonathan Thomas. Like many in here, he’s got early speed, but unlike a few others, he’s shown an ability to run well without needing the lead, which is a significant tactical edge; #4 RAMAJAY (5/2): Did everything right last time out at Gulfstream and took advantage of a perfect trip with a sharp score. On speed figures, he makes sense, and the workouts are sharp, but this barn has been cold to this point in the season, and that raises some questions; #2 MR. HOOLIGAN (6-1): Has shown a lot of gate speed and has the zip to make the rail draw an asset. Jose Ortiz rides for the Rice family, and of the “need the lead” runners, this is the one I’m most interested in.
R6
Seaside Startup (MTO)
Without Hesitation
Never Gonna Stop
#9 WITHOUT HESITATION (2-1): Hammered for $2.3 million at the OBS sale and seems to have a world of potential. Wesley Ward gets first-time starters ready to run as well as anyone, and the outside post could be a plus and minimize potential headaches; #4 NEVER GONNA STOP (6-1): Ran well in her debut, when she dueled throughout at Ellis Park and settled for second. She was beaten less than a length that day, and her experience and tactical speed could both be big plusses against this group; #7 ROCKABYE (7/2): Debuted with a close-up second at this route a few weeks ago and is another eligible to improve with a start under her belt. If there’s hesitation here, it’s because offspring of Flightline, while capable, have tended to be overbet this summer, and I may need more value on her than I’m likely to get.
R7
Abrigado
Draft Riots
Wingfoot
#9 ABRIGADO (7/5): Takes a huge class drop to the bottom of the class ladder for ultra-aggressive connections not afraid to lose horses via the claim box. He’s shown speed in all three outings to date, and the addition of blinkers means he could be dictating terms from the jump; #7 DRAFT RIOTS (3-1): Is another going way down in class and adding blinkers. A turf experiment last time out didn’t work, but he’s another that should be forward early on, and in a race without many who can pass others late, that matters; #8 WINGFOOT (10-1): Merits a look underneath at a price, especially with the improvement he showed last time out at Ellis Park. He hit the front in the stretch that day before settling for second of 12, and further progression could put him in the mix.
R8
Pronghorn (MTO)
Tirupati
Brisbane
#3 TIRUPATI (7/2): Has plenty of back class as a Grade 3 winner and has shown a lot of early speed. She’s been rated in her last few starts, but the presence of Luis Saez is, to me, a signal of intent. If she goes early and gets comfortable going two turns on the inner, I think she’ll be tough to catch; #6 BRISBANE (5/2): Is one of two Chad Brown trainees in here and exits a very classy optional claimer where she was beaten just a half-length. Flavien Prat gets the mount here, and she’s also eligible to move forward in her third start off of a long break; #5 MARKETPLACEOFIDEAS (8-1): Is the “other Chad,” but shouldn’t be dismissed as she searches for her third win in a row. She topped an impressive next-out winner back in June, and she’s got enough early speed to sit a stalking trip that could be ideal.
R9
Usha
With the Angels
Iron Orchard
#6 USHA (6/5): Ships in for the Johnstone and looks very, very tough. She’s developed quite a bit since her lone start against state-breds as a 2-year-old. She’s a Grade 1 winner that, more importantly, can close in this race filled with horses that want to be on or near the lead, and I can’t go against her; #5 WITH THE ANGELS (7/2): Tried turf last time out and didn’t run badly when fourth behind a horse that set an Aqueduct track record that will stand forever. She goes back to the dirt here, and while she’s got enough speed to lead early, she’s also shown enough maturity to stalk and pounce; #7 IRON ORCHARD (8-1): Had every right to need her comeback race in the Grade 3 Victory Ride, and that came against a very good field. She takes a class drop second off the bench, and while it’s possible we’ve seen the best of her, there’s also a chance she’s back to her old self here, and if she is, she’s logical.
R10
Beau Cheval
Rossbeigh
Classic Commander
#1 BEAU CHEVAL (9/2): Goes first off the claim for Joe Sharp in the nightcap and may provide some value. He may have moved a bit early last time out, when he finished third in a similar spot on closing day at Aqueduct. With the barn switch and the arrival of Jose Ortiz, I think he could be sitting on a career-best effort; #6 ROSSBEIGH (5/2): Has disappointed as a heavy favorite in back-to-back outings, but he does more than fit on speed figures and he wouldn’t be surprising. His effort two back at this route was solid, though not spectacular, and at least he shouldn’t be the 1/2 he was last time out; #10 CLASSIC COMMANDER (7/2): Didn’t break well last time but still rallied to be beaten less than two lengths. He does have a history of finding trouble, which makes him tough to endorse at a short price, but his two-back effort downstate was a good one and the switch to John Velazquez could be what he needs.