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SARATOGA SELECTIONS AND ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Hot Currency, Race 2
Longshot: Starship Lizzy, Race 11

R1

Coach of the Year
Silly Season
Rosemont Garden

#3 COACH OF THE YEAR (3-1): Was the victim of, in this handicapper’s opinion, an all-time bad disqualification last time out, when she was clearly best and got placed fourth. Jockey Jose Lezcano has been ice-cold ever since, but a similar type of effort may get her the money here (for real this time); #8 SILLY SEASON (7/2): Was favored in that race, but ran like a horse that needed one after a layoff of more than eight months. Chad Brown adds blinkers second off the bench, and Flavien Prat stays on; #6 ROSEMONT GARDEN (10-1): Debuts going long, which isn’t an easy task, but she’s bred to be very, very good. Her female family includes the dams of some very nice horses, including accomplished turf miler Summer Front and Grade 1-winning 2-year-old Laragh. If she’s ready, she could factor at a price in the Sunday lid-lifter.

R2

Hot Currency
Grace and Grit
Kay Cup

#2 HOT CURRENCY (8/5): Drops back into the optional claiming ranks after running a good second in the Bouwerie in June. That day’s winner came back to win again, and this one is able to run with Lasix again on the drop in class. This isn’t an easy spot for the level, but she looks tough; #6 GRACE AND GRIT (4-1): Has been going very, very well for Amelia Green and was a good-looking winner here a few weeks ago. She hasn’t finished outside the top two in five starts for this barn, and she’d benefit from a fast pace; #3 KAY CUP (3-1): Hasn’t run since December, and given her fade to fourth as a 7/5 favorite, it’s safe to assume something went wrong that day. She got pretty good here last summer, though, and she’s been working steadily for an astute barn ahead of her 2026 debut.

R3

Willie Bird
Norwich
Shoot the Nickel

#7 WILLIE BIRD (3-1): Ships in for high-percentage trainer Larry Rivelli after winning four of his last five starts. He’s versatile, being able to run well on the lead or from off the pace, and Irad Ortiz, Jr., has said, “Rivelli? I’ll ride Rivelli!” If you don’t get it, search “Larry Rivelli commercial” on YouTube; #2 NORWICH (5/2): Did everything but win here last time out, when he carved out solid fractions going seven furlongs and was beaten just a half-length. He feels like the main speed in here, and if he breaks on top, he could prove tough to catch; #5 SHOOT THE NICKEL (4-1): May have moved a bit too soon last time out in a race that fell apart up front. He settled for second that day, but Prat stays aboard for Linda Rice, and he hasn’t run a truly poor race this calendar year.

R4

Royal Bobbie (MTO)
Dividend Recap
Starlight Dancer

#5 DIVIDEND RECAP (5/2): Was a decent second last time out despite a wide trip in a race that didn’t really set up for her. The pace scenario here is a question mark, but she’s run well enough at this level in the past, and her usual effort puts her right there; #7 STARLIGHT DANCER (6-1): Took advantage of a drop in class by winning downstate and returns to Saratoga, where she’s run well in a pair of local starts. She’s shown she likes this nine-furlong route, and Kendrick Carmouche has gotten the best out of her on several occasions; #1 RIVER TAY (5-1): Didn’t have a great trip and was fourth in the race my top pick exits. It wasn’t long ago, though, that she won four in a row, and it’s not like her last two efforts have been bad. The rail draw should allow her to save a little ground, and a pace setup would certainly help, too.

R5

Calling Card (MTO)
Coach Case
Salt Spartan

#9 COACH CASE (2-1): Came back running off the bench last time and nearly won his first start since November. He didn’t have a fantastic trip that day, and while he’ll need to negotiate a trip from a tricky outside post, Flavien Prat’s one of the best in the business for a reason, and any sort of a step forward second off the bench would give him a big shot; #10 SALT SPARTAN (3-1): Has an even worse post, but may also be this race’s lone speed and could clear this field going into the first turn. He may need to go quickly to do it, but his last-out effort going longer was solid and Carmouche is fantastic at getting horses going out of the gate; #2 DREAMS OF ROME (15-1): Is one of two Horacio de Paz trainees, and despite being the bigger price, he’s the one I prefer. He broke his maiden two back in his second career start, then went up against open company, which is a big jump. He’s back against state-breds here, and I think he may have room to improve.

R6

Modest Maclean
Bossofeverything
My Togo

#8 MODEST MACLEAN (5/2): Debuts for Linda Rice off of a very impressive gate drill and catches what doesn’t seem like a strong field for the level. The outside draw could help him a bit, and so could the presence of Irad Ortiz, Jr., who may have had a few options given the connections in this field; #1 BOSSOFEVERYTHING (9/2): Has run two so-so races and comes in off of a brief freshening. He was fairly close to a legitimate pace last time, and he may not have to go that fast to secure ideal positioning this time around; #4 MY TOGO (7/2): Makes his first start for Chad Brown and will likely take plenty of money. His works look OK, but it’s worth noting they came at Monmouth Park. That’s not as big a red flag as it used to be, but it still raises a few questions.

R7

Gunmetal (MTO)
Nobals
Creditworthy

#2 NOBALS (10-1): Seems unlikely to go off at his morning line price given his credentials, which include a win in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint. He misfired at Presque Isle last time, but he goes back to turf with Prat aboard and this is his third try off the bench; #1 CREDITWORTHY (3-1): Is a closer in a race full of early speed, and that makes him appealing despite a long layoff. He hasn’t raced in nearly a year, but he’s run well fresh in the past and is 2-for-2 at this route. If he’s ready, he should get the setup he wants; #3 NOTHING BETTER (9/2): Came back running with an easy score at Penn National where he was never really threatened. This is a much better group that has several other speed horses signed on, but he’s a 13-time winner with plenty of strong efforts against this type of group.

R8

Bernietakescharge (MTO)
Gezora
Survie

#9 GEZORA (5/2): Put forth a puzzling no-show in the Grade 1 New York, but I’m willing to give her a pass. It was her first start after a highly-publicized trainer switch, and perhaps Bill Mott didn’t have a chance to get to know her. Her best race buries the field in the Grade 2 Glens Falls, and perhaps we’ll get a bettable price given the last-out clunker; #6 SURVIE (7/2): Makes her U.S. debut and is no stranger to high-level competition. She was third in a Group 1 earlier this year, and she wasn’t far behind Gezora in another Group 1 last year in France; #8 SPEED SHOPPER (4-1): Also didn’t show up in the New York, but won three of four starts before that and is proven at this 12-furlong distance. The rider switch to Irad Ortiz, Jr., is a big one, and a return to form would absolutely make her a contender.

R9

Chief Wallabee
Blackout Time
Gulfy

#6 CHIEF WALLABEE (4/5): Was fourth in two legs of the Triple Crown and gets significant class relief in the Curlin (which, as usual, has pulled a few potential runners out of the Jim Dandy, and that seems like a scheduling mistake). His best effort is very, very good, and I think he’ll appreciate not having to knock heads with the likes of Golden Tempo; #7 BLACKOUT TIME (3-1): Took advantage of first-level allowance company last time out and waltzed home clear by six lengths. Lasix may have moved him forward, but he did show some potential last season, when he was second behind Ted Noffey at Keeneland, and perhaps he’s just maturing midway into his 3-year-old season; #1 GULFY (8-1): May not want two turns, but he sure looks like the lone early speed. He tired to run fourth in the Grade 3 Peter Pan, but he may be able to sit an easier trip in this spot. If he does, he could hang on for a piece of it at a price.

R10

Scarlett Begonia
Pierette
Luminous Beauty

#6 SCARLETT BEGONIA (5/2): Was very professional in her debut at Ellis Park, where she rated, floated outside, and rolled home to win by nearly four lengths. First-time starters very rarely run like that, and that poise should serve her well in the Grade 3 Adirondack; #3 PIERETTE (3-1): Has done nothing wrong to this point, with two wins in as many starts for the red-hot Mark Casse barn. She’s shown enough early speed to stalk and pounce, and on speed figures, she’s certainly run well enough to be a big factor; #5 LUMINOUS BEAUTY (10-1): Was eased in the Schuylerville, when she was sent off as an even-money favorite. That certainly isn’t ideal, but if she’s back running, it’s fair to assume she’s OK, and while Prat goes elsewhere, a repeat of her strong two-back effort would put her in play at a bettable price.

R11

Starship Lizzy
Jayme’s Turn
Quell

#10 STARSHIP LIZZY (10-1): Gets a tepid nod in a mess of a finale. She hasn’t run since November, but she gets Lasix for the first time and her connections protect her from being claimed in her comeback race. That’s one of my favorite angles, and at least she offers a few things to recommend; #2 JAYME’S TURN (5-1): Goes to the dirt and takes a drop in class for Linda Rice, which is a move she’s enjoyed great success making. Her dirt works are decent enough, the rider switch to Manny Franco is a good one, and she wouldn’t have to move forward a ton to be a contender; #9 QUELL (6-1): Has had two eventful trips in as many starts, but she adds blinkers, which could help her focus. She did at least show a little speed last time, and the presence of Ricardo Santana, Jr., means she could be forwardly-placed again in the Sunday nightcap.