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SARATOGA SELECTIONS AND ANALYSIS
Best Bet: Twinkle Town, Race 6
Longshot: Universe, Race 7
R1
Voyager
Correlation Trade
Bashfully
#5 VOYAGER (8/5): Has run very well twice on dirt, including a solid second in the Schuylerville. Two turns and turf should be within her scope given her pedigree and running style, and the experience edge she has over many of these is a big plus in the Saturday opener; #3 CORRELATION TRADE (2-1): Debuts for Chad Brown, gets Flavien Prat, and has an all-turf pedigree (which isn’t surprising since she was bred across the pond). This outfit has had great success with runners like these over the years, and there’s a chance she’s got plenty of talent; #2 BASHFULLY (9/2): Is a half-sister to Grade 1-winning turfer Beach Patrol, and her second dam threw several very, very strong runners. Todd Pletcher-trained debuters on turf sometimes need a race to get going, but Jose Ortiz shows up here and a few of her works appear solid.
R2
Doitforjack
Velora
Lot of Loon
#8 DOITFORJACK (6-1): Is out of a mare whose two prior foals to race are both multiple winners, and her second dam is Grade 2 winner Seeking the Ante, which basically makes this one state-bred royalty. Brendan Walsh doesn’t usually work 2-year-olds fast, so the two-back bullet drill from the gate at Churchill jumps off the page; #4 VELORA (7/2): Hammered for $300,000 at the OBS sale this past April and debuts for Linda Rice after a series of strong drills, including a local bullet. Rice isn’t necessarily known for first-out success, but her clip with those runners isn’t bad, and offspring of Yaupon have proven to be precocious; #6 LOT OF LOON (5-1): Is another that merits consideration in this wide-open baby race. She sold for $225,000 across the street last year, her dam is a full sister to multiple stakes winner Bank Sting, and a consistent string of drills for Brad Cox may mean she’s ready to go at first asking.
R3
Eliminate
Reasoned Analysis
Gewurztraminer
#5 ELIMINATE (5-1): Is a pace play for me in an event out of the Wilson chute where, to be frank, I don’t really have a strong opinion. However, there’s a lot of speed signed on, and this one has shown he can rate and pass others late. That trip isn’t necessarily an ideal one at this route, but the faster they go early, the better his chances figure to be; #6 REASONED ANALYSIS (2-1): Pressed a legitimate pace at this route in his first start since April of 2025 and wound up third after that pace fell apart late. He may once again be close to some heat up front, and the outside post isn’t ideal, but he could also be tighter second off the long break for this high-percentage barn; #1 GEWURZTRAMINER (4-1): Generally always fires and missed by a head last time out at Churchill. Inside-drawn speed is tough to ignore out of the chute, and it helps that that day’s third-place finisher came back to win at next asking.
R4
Dream More
Cybersteel
Pinpoint
#9 DREAM MORE (3-1): Sold for $1.5 million at auction as a yearling, and for good reason. He’s by Gun Runner, out of multiple Grade 1-winning mare Cavorting, and a half to multiple Grade 1-winning mare Clairiere. The two-back drill was very, very strong, and the outside draw is a plus for a horse going postward for the first time; #6 CYBERSTEEL (4-1): Hammered for $325,000 at Keeneland and has a right to be a good one for connections that have saddled some good 2-year-olds. He’s by Cyberknife and out of a mare that has thrown, among others, Life Talk, a Grade 2 winner that placed in Grade 1 company; #7 PINPOINT (8-1): Has an experience edge over some of these and lost all chance at the break in his debut. That day’s winner, Booked, went on to win the Grade 3 Sanford. A cleaner break here, combined with a logical move forward at second asking, may give the “other Pletcher” a fighting chance.
R5
Life Changing
Wyna
First Site
#8 LIFE CHANGING (5-1): Is yet another regally-bred firster donning the Repole blue and orange and trained by Todd Pletcher. She’s kin to Preakness winner Seize the Grey, and her female family includes the dams of Grade 1 winners Power Broker and Miss Shop (as well as Grade 2 winner Trappe Shot). The strong works are there, and I think she could be a good one; #6 WYNA (4-1): Looks like another well-meant Brad Cox trainee debuting from the 6-hole (weird that he has three of those…). She sold for $280,000 as a weanling, a steady string of works inspires confidence, and Irad Ortiz, Jr., winds up here when he likely had a few options; #10 FIRST SITE (6-1): Came up just short at second asking last time out and has a huge experience edge. She may need to take another step forward to contend here, but the rider switch to Jose Ortiz is a big one and I’m expecting her to be prominent early.
R6
Twinkle Town
Flight Command
Booked
#3 TWINKLE TOWN (7/2): Did everything right in his debut at Churchill, when he aired by more than six lengths and beat, among others, a runner-up that came back to graduate at next asking. The Grade 2 Saratoga Special isn’t an easy spot, but he’s continued to work well for Ken McPeek, who doesn’t usually rush his 2-year-olds along; #6 FLIGHT COMMAND (9/5): Was never challenged in his debut downstate, which he won by 10 lengths. That, combined with the presence of sire Flightline, will move money, but it’s worth noting that this barn has been ice-cold since the start of the Saratoga meet; #4 BOOKED (7/5): Made me look silly when I tried to beat him in the Sanford, and he may make me look silly again. Having said that, I don’t think he beat a ton that day, and he got an absolutely ideal trip that doesn’t seem likely to be replicated here.
R7
Sassmaster
Universe
Hop Sing
#1 SASSMASTER (3-1): Came back running in his first try since last August when he held on to break his maiden in the slop. That day’s runner-up won here on Thursday, and a logical move forward second off the bench may be enough to get him to the winner’s circle again; #4 UNIVERSE (8-1): Tried some tough spots before going to the sidelines in March. He comes back after the ultimate equipment change (he’ll run as a first-time gelding), will add Lasix in his first-ever allowance start, and may have tipped his hand with a few strong local workouts; #2 HOP SING (6-1): Hasn’t won in over a year, but his lone prior start at this route last summer was very, very good. He may have needed his late-May race off of a six-month layoff, and a return to his 2025 form would, at a minimum, make him one of the ones to catch.
R8
Golden Irish (MTO)
Silsbee
Only for Now
#5 SILSBEE (5/2): Has run just once since November, but that was a strong second here Belmont week, and I’m counting on her being tighter here second off the bench for George Weaver. She got pretty good last year before going to the sidelines, and that type of effort would give her a big shot; #3 ONLY FOR NOW (5-1): Tried stakes company last time out and didn’t disgrace herself when fifth despite a wide trip. She goes against first-level allowance foes, which means she’ll run with Lasix again, and Flavien Prat has been enticed to ride; #2 LADY JANCIS (3-1): Never looked like a loser in her return to the races in June, when she overwhelmed a field of maidens. Perhaps she improves again here for Steve Asmussen and Irad Ortiz, Jr., but I don’t think that perfect trip materializes again. She may need to improve to beat a tough bunch for the level, and her likely price hits me as a slight underlay.
R9
Lion Lake
Deep Learning
Time to Dream
#9 LION LAKE (3-1): Will have to work out a trip from a tough outside post in the Grade 3 Lake George, but she’s as consistent as they come. She was a close-up second in the Grade 2 Wonder Again here in June, she’s been training well, and she may have the early speed to clear most of this group early; #8 DEEP LEARNING (7/2): Hasn’t run since November but flashed potential last season, when she won one stakes race and finished second in another. This barn can get horses ready to go off the bench, and her first-out win here almost a year ago was one of the most impressive efforts by a 2-year-old at the Spa last summer; #4 TIME TO DREAM (5-1): Looked outstanding in two wins here last year, but seems to have plateaued and hasn’t won since. She wasn’t far behind my top pick two back, though, and she rated behind a loose-on-the-lead winner last time out in the Grade 1 Belmont Oaks.
R10
Renegade
Commandment
Chip Honcho
#3 RENEGADE (7/5): Headlines a short field in the Grade 2 Jim Dandy and will look to atone for a relative dud in the Grade 1 Belmont. He was favored that day but may have moved a hair too early. His prior efforts this season, though, have been great, and his best would make him tough; #5 COMMANDMENT (6/5): Adds blinkers after settling for second in the Belmont behind division leader Golden Tempo. That was a bounce-back effort after a disappointing seventh in the Grade 1 Kentucky Derby, and the blinkers may give him an ideal stalking trip; #1 CHIP HONCHO (3-1): Looks like the main speed in here and exits a win over some solid runners in the Grade 3 Ohio Derby. It’s a step up in class, but there are worse things than inside-drawn speed at Saratoga, and he could lead them a long way.
R11
B Provocateur (MTO)
Illmatic
Dakota Country
#1 ILLMATIC (9/2): Took a tough beat against state-bred stakes foes downstate, when he was second beaten a nose in a three-horse photo. He gets to run with Lasix here against first-level allowance company, and while he’s a 3-year-old going against older, it’s not like there are any monsters here; #9 DAKOTA COUNTRY (8/5): Goes first off the claim for Bob Hess, who doesn’t ship many horses east. He won two in a row at Santa Anita for former NorCal stalwart Steve Sherman (RIP, Northern California horse racing…), and while California turf form sometimes doesn’t travel, he more than fits on speed figures; #2 JOKER ON FIRE (5-1): Has been close in both of his prior outings at this route and was most recently second beaten a length against open company. He runs against state-breds here, and he could sit the highly-desired “stalk and pounce” trip.
R12
Jadorlinija (MTO)
Nonconsecutivetrms
Amicable Farce
#5 NONCONSECUTIVETRMS (5/2): Did a lot right in her comeback race in July, when she stalked and hit the front before settling for second in her first try since December. She adds Lasix here, gets Jose Ortiz, and looks very, very tough in the Saturday nightcap; #3 AMICABLE FARCE (5-1): Ran well in mid-June to finish second in her first outing since August. She’s another eligible to improve second off the bench for a high-percentage barn, and if she’s figured things out and runs to the elite bottom-side pedigree she has, look out; #2 MUSIC BOX (8-1): Has run second in each of her three starts to date and had some excuses last time, when she had traffic trouble and came up just a half-length short. That was at Colonial, and this may be a tougher spot, but at least she’s shown she can pass others, and we may get a decent price on a horse that hasn’t done a whole lot wrong to this point other than being unlucky.