BANKROLL
BANKROLL: $1,028
Saturday’s early double showed one of the reasons fans love this meet so much. Midnight Still and Angel of Kirk were chalky winners, but both were very, very impressive, and they’re 2-year-olds with what appear to be pretty high ceilings. It wouldn’t be surprising to see those two in races like the Spinaway and Hopeful on closing weekend.
If those races weren’t enough for you, we’ve got three 2-year-old maiden races on tap for Sunday. If pedigrees and workouts are your thing, it’s one of the best cards of the meet, and there’s plenty to digest as you go through the nine-race program.
SATURDAY’S RESULTS: Uptown Rosie broke sharply and set a fast pace, but had little left when the field turned for home. I dropped $30.
SUNDAY’S PLAY: My strongest opinion comes in the second, where I think #1 KIAMBA will be very tough. I’m keeping it simple with a $40 win bet, and I hope we get the 5/2 morning line price.
TOTAL WAGERED: $40.
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SARATOGA SELECTIONS AND ANALYSIS
Best Bet: Kiamba, Race 2
Longshot: Grace of Monaco, Race 5
R1
Tinian
Cut Down the Nets
Hammerin Henry
#10 TINIAN (3-1): Sold for $210,000 at auction earlier this year and has been working well for trainer Mark Casse ahead of his debut in the Sunday lid-lifter. The far-outside post is a great one for a young horse to have, and if he runs to his morning drills, he could be a very nice horse; #2 CUT DOWN THE NETS (9/2): May have lost his unveiling at the gate, and he finished a distant fourth behind next-out stakes winner Booked. This barn’s horses often need a race or two to get going, and the experience edge he has on his rivals is a plus; #5 HAMMERIN HENRY (7/2): Debuts for powerhouse connections and boasts a string of solid workouts downstate. His bottom-side pedigree is sneaky strong, as his dam was a first-out winner and his lineage traces back to third dam Silent Turn, who won multiple graded stakes races.
R2
Kiamba
Higher Force (MTO)
Midnight Concerto
#1 KIAMBA (5/2): Was disappointing last time out, but that may have simply been a “bounce” off of a solid third in the Grade 3 Sheepshead Bay. At a minimum, her form here and in France says she wants this 12-furlong distance, and that’s a major question mark for many others. If she bounces back, she’ll be very tough to beat; #3 MIDNIGHT CONCERTO (4-1): Has run well twice this season and was most recently second in the Mount Vernon here last month. She stretches out to a marathon distance, but there’s no doubting she’s in career-best form coming into this one; #6 PRETTY TAPIT (8-1): Graduated by daylight last time out at Churchill going this distance and faces winners for the first time. I’m a bit skeptical of the field she faced that day, but the pedigree says this is the trip she wants, and perhaps the light’s come on.
R3
Bellacose
Moonlight Gal
Cararra
#4 BELLACOSE (5/2): Is a tepid top pick that I’m not crazy about. She hasn’t run since August, she’s run just five times in two years, and she’s clearly had her issues (which may explain the big drop in class). However, she loves Saratoga, has run her best races here, and faces no monsters. If she’s anywhere close to the horse she was two back, she probably wins; #3 MOONLIGHT GAL (8-1): Comes up in class after topping non-winners of two last time out. She’s done her best work at this quirky seven-furlong trip, though, as both of her wins have come at this distance. Add in her ability to pass others late, and there’s stuff to like (especially given the likely price); #9 CARARRA (8-1): Takes a big drop in search of her first win in multiple years. However, one of her two victories came in her lone Saratoga start to date, and this is easily the lowest level she’s ever run at. The presence of Joel Rosario doesn’t hurt, either.
R4
Liam’s Law
And the Runner Is
Suspend
#2 LIAM’S LAW (8-1): Was one of a few that had rough trips in his debut on May 24th in a race that was rained off the turf. However, he gets the grass here (which he’s bred to love, being by Colonel Liam and out of a Kitten’s Joy mare), Flavien Prat stays on for Todd Pletcher, and he’s certainly eligible to improve with experience; #11 AND THE RUNNER IS (5-1): Is one of two Mark Casse trainees in here, and he’s another bred up and down for the lawn. This son of Oscar Performance and Grade 2 winner Linda attracts Irad Ortiz, but will have to overcome a terrible far-outside post position going two turns on the inner; #3 SUSPEND (10-1): May need a race (as Bill Mott trainees often do), but given his pedigree, this is certainly the right spot. He’s by Tapit and out of multiple graded stakes winner Lull, who herself has a dam who’s kin to Grade 1 winners Saint Liam and Funtastic, among others.
R5
Grace of Monaco
Immortal Poet
Americanexpression
#3 GRACE OF MONACO (12-1): Has real appeal at anywhere close to the morning line price. She takes one of the biggest drops in racing (from a maiden special weight to a maiden claimer), and she’s bred to like the turf. Sire Street Sense won the Kentucky Derby, but his offspring tend to run well on the grass, and if this one relishes it, she may be the one to catch; #8 IMMORTAL POET (6-1): Is another class-dropper with early speed, and she makes her second start off a long layoff. The pace she pressed last time was a fast one, she had every right to need that race, and she should be more fit second off the bench; #7 AMERICANEXPRESSION (6-1): Ran OK in her debut, when she finished third against straight maidens over the synthetic at Gulfstream. I’m honestly a bit surprised she shows up for a tag off of that effort, but this barn, while small, knows how to spot horses.
R6
Limes Don’t Lie
Alyeska
Strong State
#3 LIMES DON’T LIE (7/2): Is one of two Chad Brown trainees, but despite being a bigger price on the morning line, this is the one I like. She was never beating Scottish Lassie last time out, and she wasn’t able to sit her desired trip given the small field. There’s speed in here, so she should be able to sit back and make one big late run; #7 ALYESKA (9/5): Makes her first start in nearly 10 months here, but she’s shown serious potential. Her win before going to the sidelines was a good one. The question is, is she ready to go off the bench, and even if she is, can she turn the tables on her stablemate, who beat her two back at this route?; #4 STRONG STATE (4-1): Didn’t break well last time in her first try since November, and I’m willing to give her a pass for that race. Prat rides for Al Stall, who merits respect whenever he ships a runner in, and she’s another that could benefit from a pace meltdown.
R7
Five Grand
Road Show
Saratoga Tea
#6 FIVE GRAND (5/2): Is a tepid top pick in a 2-year-old maiden race with nine debuting runners where I’d spread in multi-race exotics. This one, though, is a full brother to a nice horse named Five G, who’s won multiple stakes races, and Prat, who likely had options, chooses to ride this George Weaver trainee; #8 ROAD SHOW (7/2): Doesn’t have the flashiest pedigree, but the two recent four-furlong drills here look very, very sharp. Jose Ortiz takes the call for Mark Casse, and they’re both off to great starts at this stand; #3 SARATOGA TEA (9/2): Comes in off of two strong gate works for trainer Rodolphe Brisset, and those came a few months after he sold for $250,000 at the OBS sale. Sire Yaupon has been throwing a lot of precocious horses, but this barn isn’t necessarily known for success with first-time starters.
R8
Golden Symphony (MTO)
Highlands Way
The Paddock Pastor
#6 HIGHLANDS WAY (6-1): Sold for $1.35 million at auction in 2023, didn’t race until December, and came back in a maiden claimer for a $55,000 tag, only to circle most of the field and win going away. Maybe he didn’t beat much, but maybe he’s just taken longer to come around, and maybe his connections will be glad nobody reached in to claim him; #12 THE PADDOCK PASTOR (8-1): Generally doesn’t get bet, but he’s run several very good races over this turf course. He just missed Belmont week and should once again get a pace to run at. The question is, can Jaime Rodriguez work out a trip from this far-outside post?; #3 GENE AND JUDE (8-1): Appeals to me the most out of the likely frontrunners. He was third in the race my second choice exits, but he didn’t get to save much ground that day. He should clear the two horses to his inside, and that may put him in an ideal spot.
R9
Twenty One Red
Down the Field
Golden Joker
#11 TWENTY ONE RED (7/2): Is another reluctant top pick in a race where I’d recommend going deep if you can afford it. His record says he’s 0-for-11, and I usually don’t love horses like that, but he’s a turf horse that spent the winner running on dirt at Aqueduct. His last-out effort was solid, and he ran second in his lone prior try over this turf course; #5 DOWN THE FIELD (6-1): Debuts for Linda Rice, whose numbers with debuting turfers aren’t great. However, his works are solid enough, Irad Ortiz, Jr., sees fit to ride, and among others, he’s a half-brother to Candied, a filly who won a Grade 1 as a 2-year-old; #6 GOLDEN JOKER (8-1): Had a terrible trip in his debut and is certainly logical to improve at second asking. He’s received the ultimate equipment change since his last start, as he’ll run as a first-time gelding in the Sunday finale, and a cleaner trip could give him a chance to graduate.