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SARATOGA SELECTIONS AND ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Playing Tricks, Race 3
Longshot: Smooth Authority, Race 2

R1

Suited Connectors
Into the Unknown
Gotta Gun Runner

#2 SUITED CONNECTORS (5/2): Didn’t break well in her debut, but showed some interest and rallied to pass more than half of a 12-horse field. She has every right to improve and grow at second asking, and she draws very well in this Thursday lid-lifter out of the Wilson chute; #3 INTO THE UNKNOWN (3-1): Has run second in back-to-back outings and has shown some tactical speed, which should help here. She’s beaten a few of these in the past and merits respect, though I’m not sure how much room to improve she has compared to some of her opponents; #5 GOTTA GUN RUNNER (5/2): Gets blinkers and Flavien Prat off of what’s easily her best performance to date. She was a competitive third after showing some interest downstate, and perhaps her connections learned something in that last-out effort.

R2

Fire Marshal
Smooth Authority
Honest Won

#6 FIRE MARSHAL (2-1): Has an experience edge over every other runner in the body of this field, as he showed some speed against open company downstate. He comes in to face New York-breds here for a barn whose runners tend to improve with experience; #8 SMOOTH AUTHORITY (10-1): Is interesting at his likely price. Just a $1,000 weanling purchase, he boasts a strong two-back work on the grass and has a right to be precocious. His dam was a first-out winner, and that one’s full sister, Hannah Dances, won her debut as well before placing in multiple stakes races; #2 HONEST WON (4-1): Debuts for a barn whose horses tend to need a race to get going. However, his works indicate he’s got potential, and dam One Wise Cowgirl previously threw Haveyougoneaway, the winner of the Grade 1 Ballerina several years ago.

R3

Playing Tricks
Bedard
Shattuck

#5 PLAYING TRICKS (2-1): Takes a major class drop and adds blinkers for this one, which serves as a cutback in distance. A mile may be a bit too far for him, and those last two efforts came against much, much better groups than the one he’ll line up against here; #2 BEDARD (9/5): Also drops and cuts back for aggressive connections, and it wouldn’t be surprising if he goes off the favorite. His two-back effort in the slop at Oaklawn was solid, although I’m not sure this elongated sprint is his best game; #4 SHATTUCK (8-1): Was part of a comeback for my bankroll section last year, when he rallied and romped at this route. He hasn’t run since December, but he’s protected from being claimed in this event, which I love to see, and he’s done some of his best work going seven panels.

R4

Collado Hueco
Preside
Hadrian’s Wall

#6 COLLADO HUECO (5/2): Lost all chance at the break in his debut, but he rallied to finish a close-up fourth beaten less than a length. This son of Into Mischief and top-class mare Dunbar Road stretches out to two turns, which he should relish, and a less-adventurous trip would make him tough; #5 PRESIDE (7/5): Took a step forward in the slop at second asking, when he was second going two turns at Churchill. On paper, this is a very similar spot, and Irad Ortiz, Jr., lands here when he may have had a few options; #1 HADRIAN’S WALL (3-1): Has burned money in his last two, though he did have an excuse last time when he broke last and was left with far too much to do. He could easily improve, though a repeat of his slow break last time out would be a problem given the rail draw.

R5

Sturdy (MTO)
Right to Win
Classic Creation

#4 RIGHT TO WIN (6-1): Ran like a horse that needed a race last time out at Ellis, which is understandable since that was his first start since October. He takes a drop in class second off the bench, and his lone prior start here was part of a stretch where he won three times in four outings; #8 CLASSIC CREATION (5-1): Hasn’t won in a long, long time, but he had an excuse against higher-level competition earlier this month. He was very wide that day in a very fast race for the level, and perhaps a drop into these waters will wake him up; #2 FORTUNE SELLER (7/2): Ships in for Kevin Rice and gets Jose Ortiz, which automatically makes him live. He never had a chance here two back, when the frontrunner got loose and didn’t stop, and I’m expecting a better effort in this spot (assuming we stay on turf, which is no certainty given the weather).

R6

Factually Correct
Run Classic
Pair of Socks

#5 FACTUALLY CORRECT (9/2): Would move forward considerably on a wet track, as he boasts three wins in six starts over off going. The rider switch to top gate rider Kendrick Carmouche is notable given his early speed, and I think he’s a legitimate wire-to-wire candidate; #2 RUN CLASSIC (9/5): Hasn’t found the winner’s circle since February of 2024 but takes a drop first off the claim for Joe Sharp, who knows how to move horses forward. His efforts at Oaklawn earlier this year were solid, and if there’s a pace meltdown, he’d stand to benefit; #3 PAIR OF SOCKS (2-1): Runs for a tag for the first time since September and hasn’t finished worse than third in his last seven starts. He’s run well against some solid allowance horses, so while this is a tough race for the level, he shouldn’t be out of his element.

R7

Princess Ny
Accelerated News
Majestic Return

#5 PRINCESS NY (5/2): Hits me as the speed of the speed in this one, and it doesn’t hurt that she’s run her best races over wet tracks. She may see one of those here, and if she’s able to dictate terms from the jump, she may prove tough to run down; #1 ACCELERATED NEWS (9/2): Hasn’t run since a failed turf experiment in November, and perhaps she needs a race. However, she’s been working well ahead of her return, and she’s proven she can pass others, which could come in handy depending on how fast they go out of the gate; #8 MAJESTIC RETURN (5-1): Goes first off a trainer switch for a barn that connects at a high clip with new acquisitions. There are some stamina concerns here, but she comes in off of a bullet drill at Finger Lakes and gets the aggressive Ricardo Santana, Jr., in the irons.

R8

Bernietakescharge (MTO)
Gezora
Survie

#4 GEZORA (2-1): Put forth a puzzling no-show in the Grade 1 New York, but I’m willing to give her a pass. It was her first start after a highly-publicized trainer switch, and perhaps Bill Mott didn’t have a chance to get to know her. Her best race buries the field in the Grade 2 Glens Falls, and perhaps we’ll get a bettable price given the last-out clunker; #1 SURVIE (4-1): Makes her U.S. debut and is no stranger to high-level competition. She was third in a Group 1 earlier this year, and she wasn’t far behind Gezora in another Group 1 last year in France; #5 SPEED SHOPPER (5-1): Also didn’t show up in the New York, but won three of four starts before that and is proven at this 12-furlong distance. The rider switch to Irad Ortiz, Jr., is a big one, and a return to form would absolutely make her a contender.

R9

Seeker’s Hope (MTO)
Tamino
Diliello

#3 TAMINO (4-1): Didn’t run well in the slop against allowance foes last time out and goes back to what’s probably the right level. He ran well on turf twice earlier in his career, and if he’s able to get back on grass here (which is no cinch as of this writing), he’s got a big shot in the Thursday nightcap; #8 DILIELLO (6-1): Goes third off the bench and runs for a tag for the first time. He’s a closer that may need a lot to go right, but these are shallower waters and perhaps he’s found his friends; #10 HEARTILY (8-1): Is a puzzling class-dropper and is slated to try turf for the first time. He flashed talent earlier in his career, when he wired a field of maidens at Keeneland and was less than 2-1 in a stakes race. If he can still run, he could be good enough.