BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $941

My podcast, “Drank’n Champagne,” is off this week, but I’ll be hopping on the On the Wrong Lead network’s weekly live stream Thursday night. We’re planning to look at several races on Saturday’s Whitney Day program, and it’s always a blast being able to talk shop and engage with people live on the air.

If you haven’t already subscribed to the On the Wrong Lead YouTube channel, go do that. We’ve got a bunch of stuff available on a weekly basis, and these are good guys that are responsible for one of the best stories I have from my wedding last month. If you ever run into me, ask about the tie clip!

WEDNESDAY’S RESULTS: Pedigree play Lima Lima did no running in the sixth. I dropped $32 after scratches.

THURSDAY’S PLAY: I’ll zero in on the ninth, the John Morrissey, where I really like #5 THE WINE STEWARD. I’ll keep it simple with a $40 win bet in that one and hope we get the 6-1 morning line price (or something close to it).

TOTAL WAGERED: $40.

SARATOGA SELECTIONS AND ANALYSIS

Best Bet: The Wine Steward, Race 9
Longshot: Credit Risk, Race 6

R1

The Obliterator (MTO)
Minorinconvenience
Honoree

#3 MINORINCONVENIENCE (10-1): Gets a tepid nod in the first of several wide-open races for 2-year-olds on this Thursday card. Someone somewhere thought this colt could run first time out, as he was a 7/5 favorite. I think there’s a chance he needed that effort, and his pedigree says he should stretch out; #5 HONOREE (5/2): Didn’t do much running first time out, but that race was rained off the turf, and his pedigree is turf through and through. This sure seems to be what he wants to do, and John Velazquez sees fit to ride back at second asking; #4 TWIRLING LAD (4-1): Goes out for a barn whose firsters often need a race, but he’s bred well and has been working steadily. He’s by Twirling Candy and boasts a stamina-heavy female pedigree that includes second dam Caroline Thomas, a Grade 2 winner.

R2

Whatarewedoing (MTO)
Devilish Grin
Dolce Vino

#4 DEVILISH GRIN (7/2): Rallied to be beaten less than a length in her unveiling, which came in a race without much early speed. Still, she managed to pass horses late, which isn’t easy for first-time starters to do. A step forward would make her the one to beat; #2 DOLCE VINO (9/2): Also makes her second start, and she goes to the turf after finishing third on dirt earlier this month. Her pedigree says she should move up on the grass, and the addition of blinkers could keep her focused; #6 GREAT ACTRESS (6-1): Was third in the race my top pick exits and should be forwardly placed early on. She’s also eligible to improve, especially for a barn whose horses sometimes move forward after a start or two.

R3

That’s Funny
Lady Orient
D’s a Rock

#5 THAT’S FUNNY (9/2): Comes back to dirt after a failed turf experiment, and this seems like what she wants to do. She was third in a fast race for the level two starts ago, and there certainly appears to be enough early speed in here to set up for her late kick; #7 LADY ORIENT (5/2): Will likely go off favored for a high-percentage barn, but I have some doubts. She takes a big drop in here, and while the class relief could wake her up, she doesn’t tower over this group on speed figures. At her likely price, I’ll take a mild stand against her; #4 D’S A ROCK (7/2): Has won three in a row at Finger Lakes and tries tougher competition here. She’s shown some versatility in central New York, and she wasn’t embarrassed in a pair of tries against New York-bred stakes horses late last year.

R4

Sailaway
Carolina Smokeshow
Spirit of Esther

#3 SAILAWAY (4-1): Drops in class for this one and didn’t sit her desired trip when far, far back on the turf last time out. She wants to be forward, which is a good thing coming out of the Wilson chute. Furthermore, jockey Jose Ortiz likely had several options, and he lands here; #4 CAROLINA SMOKESHOW (4/5): Takes a big drop in search of her first win since late last year, but while she may win at a very short price and make me feel silly, I can’t back her on top. She hasn’t shown much early speed in most of her starts, and in fact, she’s broken badly in her last two outings. At odds-on, she’s a play-against; #7 SPIRIT OF ESTHER (5-1): Comes back to the Wilson chute, the site of her lone career win to date. I don’t think she beat much that day, and the post position is a problem, but she’s another class-dropper who’s certainly been facing far better competition.

R5

Goichman entry
Ryan Elizabeth
Neshika

GOICHMAN ENTRY (7/5): I much prefer #1A MARIA CALLAS, who debuts for Chad Brown and has a monster bottom-side pedigree. Her dam is kin to Grade 1 winner Noble Bird and stakes winner Brother Pat, among others, and that gate work on July 13th hints that she’s got some talent; #4 RYAN ELIZABETH (7/2): Sold for just $30,000 at auction despite a pretty big turf pedigree. Her dam, Abaco, was a serious turf distaffer in her day, and second and third dams Cat Cay and Cadillacing were both graded stakes winners. Frankie Dettori sees fit to hop aboard; #3 NESHIKA (10-1): Was one-paced in her debut downstate, but I think she’ll move forward here at a bit of a price. Her pedigree says she wants to go longer, and this barn’s first-time starters usually aren’t fully cranked.

R6

Run On States
Credit Risk
Avery’s Wonderland

#8 RUN ON STATES (5/2): Did everything but win in her unveiling at Ellis Park, which came against open company. She fell by just a neck that day and comes in to face New York-bred competition, which may represent a class drop; #1 CREDIT RISK (20-1): Has a sneaky pedigree, being kin to Bellacose, who was a massive first-out winner. Her second and third dam were both graded stakes winners, too, and there are a few workouts on her sheet that look solid; #4 AVERY’S WONDERLAND (8-1): Debuts for Rick Dutrow, whose barn has yet to get going at this stand. However, dam Liza Jambalaya is kin to Grade 1 winners Paulassilverlining and Dad’s Caps, and she attracts Joel Rosario for her first lifetime outing.

R7

Geez Eloise (MTO)
Numero Seis
Linarite

#9 NUMERO SEIS (8/5): Takes a drop for Joe Sharp, who’s been one of the hottest trainers on the grounds to this point in the meet. First-call pilot Jose Ortiz will be aboard, and she hits me as a major wire-to-wire threat from the outside post; #4 LINARITE (9/2): Has hit the board in all six prior starts at the Spa and goes first off the claim for Mike Miceli, who doesn’t claim many horses but is very solid with new acquisitions. Her two-back win was a good one, and she’d benefit from my top pick getting tested early; #3 QUICK POWER NAP (6-1): Has shown an aversion to getting her picture taken, as she’s 0-for-12 since the start of 2024. However, she had an excuse last time out, when she went very, very wide and lost by just over a length. Prat rides back, and we’ll see if she can save any ground.

R8

Khafre
Kantarmaci entry
Royal Tryst

#4 KHAFRE (8/5): Appears to be the main speed and could capitalize on a front-running trip beneath Dylan Davis. Linda Rice claimed him last time out, and her stellar record with new acquisitions is well-established; KANTARMACI ENTRY (7/5): I prefer #1A BOLD ENDEAVOR, who just missed when last seen at Aqueduct in April. He’ll make his 50th career start in this spot, and if he sits the kind of stalking trip we’ve seen him sit in the past, he’ll have every chance at his 11th lifetime score; #3 ROYAL TRYST (9/2): Has shown his preferred running style many times. He’s a deep closer who needs a lot of pace in front of him, but if he gets that and a wet track, he’ll have every chance to spring a mild upset.

R9

The Wine Steward
Whatchatalkinabout
Bank Frenzy

#5 THE WINE STEWARD (6-1): Did no running in the Grade 3 Steve Sexton Mile at Lone Star, but he drops in to face New York-breds for the first time in a while in the John Morrissey. Draw lines through that race and last year’s Grade 1 Belmont (where he was just hopelessly overmatched), and his sheet looks far, far better; #9 WHATCHATALKINABOUT (2-1): Eked out a win in the Grade 3 John Nerud back in May and has been working forwardly at Keeneland for Wesley Ward. On figures, he’s the one to beat, but it’s worth noting that he’s never gone seven furlongs before, and this is a pretty strong field for the level; #2 BANK FRENZY (3-1): Has won five of six and has done some of his best running at Saratoga. His best effort would give him a big chance here, but he’s 0-for-2 at this quirky seven-furlong distance and may prefer a two-turn trip.

R10

She’s Cool (MTO)
Annelle
Bread to Run

#9 ANNELLE (6-1): Gets another chance from me in the Thursday finale after misfiring here on Independence Day. That race came against a better group, and the winner, Awesome Czech, is very good over this turf course. She’ll likely get a pace to run at, and two-back win rider Nik Juarez ships in; #10 BREAD TO RUN (8-1): Hasn’t run badly in her three turf routes to date, including a two-back score at Churchill. The post position isn’t ideal, but two-back win rider Luis Saez hops back aboard, and she’s another that should get a solid setup; #5 DYNAMIC ACTRESS (10-1): Looks like the main speed in this event and attracts top gate rider Kendrick Carmouche. Her races this past winter at Tampa were strong, and if she can find that form here, she could lead this bunch a long way.

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $973

As many of you know, I got married a month ago, and my wife is getting set to start the 2025-26 school year as a fifth-grade teacher at a public school outside Oakland, California. Like many teachers, she’s in the process of securing materials she needs for her classroom, and she could use our help.

You can learn more and buy supplies here, and if you have a good day Wednesday, I can assure you that this is a worthy cause to support. If you’re still not sold, consider this: This woman does an outright fantastic job keeping 30 10-year-olds on the right track from mid-August through early-June, and then comes home and deals with me.

(Love you, honey!)

SUNDAY’S RESULTS: My two plays were both in turf races that got moved to the main track, so there was no action.

WEDNESDAY’S PLAY: I’ve got a pedigree play in the sixth, where the likely price on #8 LIMA LIMA seems too big. I’ll have a $20 win bet on her. I’ll also key her in $4 exactas above #1 SANTINA, #3 BLANCHETT, #10 SHARP MINDSET, and #11 KETO DRINK, and in $2 exactas below that quartet.

TOTAL WAGERED: $44.

SARATOGA SELECTIONS AND ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Corruption, Race 4
Longshot: Lima Lima, Race 6

R1

Hidden Path
St. John’s
Memento

#5 HIDDEN PATH (3-1): Almost certainly needed his last-out clunker, which was his first try since going against stakes company last fall. He was third against Grade 1 foes downstate in September, and I think he’ll be considerably sharper here; #6 ST. JOHN’S (2-1): Merits respect for a high-percentage outfit and isn’t a bad favorite. He prepped with a fourth-place finish on the flat at Laurel, and that was a pretty fast race for the level; #7 MEMENTO (4-1): Sure seems like the main speed in here, and he capitalized on that sort of scenario to break his maiden by eight back in March. If he gets comfortable up front, he could lead them a long way in the Wednesday opener.

R2

Stone Smuggler
Army Gal
Mitole’s Girl

#1 STONE SMUGGLER (7/5): Hasn’t raced since December, but she’s been working steadily for about two months and gets Lasix for the first time. Her two defeats last year came to the classy With the Angels, and if she’s ready, she’s the one to beat; #5 ARMY GAL (5/2): Cuts back from a race out of the Wilson chute, and that’s a quirky route that was probably too far. This one-turn seven-furlong trip figures to be more up her street, and the jockey switch to Jose Ortiz is a notable one; #2 MITOLE’S GIRL (6-1): Beat winners last time and comes up in class third off a long break. She may still have room to improve given her relative inexperience, and if she does, she could factor in this at a bit of a price.

R3

Chocolatechocolate
Laughing Lady
Sunset Sizzle

#3 CHOCOLATECHOCOLATE (5/2): Gets a tepid nod in a mess of a maiden claimer. She’s gotten unlucky in each of her last two starts, and while she’s failed to live up to her lofty $325,000 auction tag, a clean trip beneath Irad Ortiz Jr. could at least see her graduate; #2 LAUGHING LADY (5/2): Takes a huge drop for very capable connections, and her two-back effort sprinting on dirt at Aqueduct wasn’t bad. Her lone other dirt start to date saw her chase eventual champ Immersive, and perhaps running against maiden claimers will wake her up; #6 SUNSET SIZZLE (2-1): Was beaten less than a length in her debut back in May and takes a very, very curious drop here. While she could win this and make me look silly, the facts are that she sold for $225,000 and didn’t run badly in her unveiling, so why is she here?

R4

Corruption
Master Piece
Otello

#6 CORRUPTION (7/5): Feels like the main true speed in this three-turn turf marathon, and he’s also 4-for-5 on Lasix (with the lone misfire coming off a long break last November). He’s won going very long on turf before, and I think he leads this one from gate to wire; #7 MASTER PIECE (5-1): Is proven at this distance and gets significant class relief. He’s won multiple Grade 2 events downstate, and his best race would make him tough to beat, but it’s worth wondering if he’s past his peak as a 9-year-old; #1 OTELLO (6-1): Tries turf for the first time in his 10th career start, which is baffling given his turf-heavy pedigree. His dam, Isabella Sings, was a top-notch turf runner, and while these connections probably got Derby Fever last year, it sure seems like this is the surface he wants.

R5

Noguchi
White Whale
Fiddling Felix

#2 NOGUCHI (4-1): Is one of two Chad Brown trainees in here, and he didn’t have a great trip on turf last time. He got bumped around and sent wide, and I think there’s reason to believe he’ll improve at second asking. Irad hopping aboard is certainly a big plus; #5 WHITE WHALE (3-1): Comes back to dirt after a failed turf experiment at Churchill Downs, a race where he ran wide and probably never had a real shot. Luis Saez hops on for Rusty Arnold, and this one’s dirt sprints haven’t been bad; #6 FIDDLING FELIX (5/2): Nearly got the job done on the class drop last time, but was repelled in deep-stretch. That race came back well on figures, but this is a tougher field, and it feels like last time was the time. If he’s the favorite, that hits me as a mistake.

R6

Lima Lima
Keto Drink
Sharp Mindset

#8 LIMA LIMA (12-1): Quietly possesses a massive turf pedigree and intrigues me a great deal. She’s by War Front and out of a mare named Family Meeting, who was a stakes-winning 2-year-old on the lawn. Her second dam is a full sibling to two graded stakes winners on turf, too; #11 KETO DRINK (2-1): Merits respect if she’s able to draw in off the AE list. She had trouble in her debut but came running late to be third, and logical improvement plus a cleaner trip may be enough to get her in the winner’s circle at second asking; #10 SHARP MINDSET (7/2): Debuts for the red-hot Joe Sharp barn and is another with plenty of turf breeding. She’s by Street Sense and out of a stakes-winning turf sprinter that’s thrown two winners from as many foals to race.

R7

Swaggish (MTO)
War Officer
Salted Carmel

#7 WAR OFFICER (7/2): Is a consistent sort with five straight top-two finishes, and he ran well going a marathon distance last year at Gulfstream. There are many unknowns in here, from both surface and distance standpoints, and he feels like one of the few known quantities; #2 SALTED CARMEL (8-1): Goes back to Keri Brion, who trained him to a win two back at Delaware. This barn knows how to get horses ready to go long, and the presence of Flavien Prat is a plus; #1 BRIGADE COMMANDER (5/2): Comes in off a win here a few weeks ago, which is the second time he’s run well over this turf course. On form, he fits, but the 11-furlong distance is a big question mark, and he may need more pace than he’s likely to get.

R8

Sterling Silver
Tricky Temper
Dolomite

#8 STERLING SILVER (5/2): Won this race last year (albeit going a bit longer) and is once again formidable in the Johnstone. She disappointed last time out in the Critical Eye, but I think she’s better going one turn, not two, and that she’ll move forward for Mott and Alvarado; #11 TRICKY TEMPER (15-1): Ran a clunker last time out, but that was her first race in more than six months. Three of her four wins have come here at Saratoga, the Englehart barn is off to a great start, and the last-out bullet work hints she’ll be sharper at a nice price; #2 DOLOMITE (5-1): Has reeled off three wins in a row and has 10 in-the-money finishes from as many starts. If there’s a question mark here, it’s that all but one of her wins have come on Lasix, which she won’t be able to run on here.

R9

Good Mission
Kyla’s Kause
Fifi La Fume

#8 GOOD MISSION (7/2): Gets a tepid nod in a finale where it seems impossible to have a strong opinion given so many professional maidens. However, she got back on turf last time and was a solid third behind a next-out winner despite a trip where she didn’t save much ground. There are at least some things to like here; #2 KYLA’S KAUSE (8/5): Hasn’t been seen since October and comes back for a tag that’s less than a third of her 2023 purchase price. Her 2024 races were fine, and she probably wins if she can channel that form, but it’s fair to wonder why she’s in here; #5 FIFI LA FUME (6-1): Has had plenty of chances, at 0-for-10 lifetime, but her most recent race was her first turf sprint and she didn’t run badly. She was third that day, and Irad sees fit to hang around for the Wednesday nightcap.

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $973

Those who have read my content regularly for the last 15 years know I’m not afraid to be critical of NYRA. Last year, I was one of many people saying the Wilson chute was wildly overused, especially given all of the two-turn turf races moved to the main track.

I give NYRA credit, as it seems like the racing office hasn’t carded nearly as many races from the chute this summer. Unfortunately, there’s some rain in the forecast today. In addition to a pair of previously-scheduled chute races, we may see several more moved there.

For what the Wilson chute is, as a quirky option, it’s fine. However, it got to a point where two-turn dirt races were afterthoughts most days, and that was way too far. Here’s hoping continued restraint wins out for the rest of the summer.

SATURDAY’S RESULTS: Arthur’s Ride probably lost all chance at the start of the fourth. After scratches, I dropped $30.

SUNDAY’S PLAY: I’ll focus on two races I hope stay on the turf. My action involves $20 win bets on #10 SUNRISE in the third and #11 ANTIETAM in the 10th.

TOTAL WAGERED: $40.

SARATOGA SELECTIONS AND ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Keepinitreal, Race 6
Longshot: Party at the Post, Race 8

R1

Colonial Rose
Rice entry
Our Liberty Belle

#4 COLONIAL ROSE (1-1): Was an impressive winner at this level in the slop last time out in her first start for this barn, and she’s the one to beat if she can repeat that effort here. Given the weather forecast as of this writing, she may catch a wet track once again; RICE ENTRY (3-1): Both #1 WHISTLER’S STYLE and #1A COQUITO could win this, and the two runners complement one another well. The former is a deep closer, while the latter wants to win on the front end; #5 OUR LIBERTY BELLE (5/2): Stretches back out to two turns for the first time since last fall, when she ran pretty well at Laurel. This is a tougher spot, but she gets Irad Ortiz Jr. and would benefit from a contested early pace.

R2

Backstretch Rose
Florida Flower
Teca

#6 BACKSTRETCH ROSE (9/5): Tailed off a bit in her last two starts before going to the sidelines, but she returns against much weaker company in this spot. She ran very well against restricted claimers late last year, and she’s shown two turns shouldn’t be a problem; #7 FLORIDA FLOWER (5/2): Goes first off the claim for Wayne Potts after a solid second downstate last month. That was her first start at this level, and it feels like the class drop woke her up; #5 TECA (8-1): Merits a look at a price shipping in from the mid-Atlantic circuit. She’s won two of four starts for this barn, she’s got some tactical speed, and she’s not too far off of these on speed figures.

R3

Tapit’s Legacy (MTO)
Sunrise
Olivetti

#10 SUNRISE (8-1): Doesn’t draw a great post in his debut, but his pedigree is one of the strongest you’ll see for a debuting turfer. He’s a full brother to Grade 1 winner Spendarella and multiple stakes winner Spanish Loveaffair, and a half to Grade 1 winner Spanish Queen. This should absolutely be what he wants to do; #2 OLIVETTI (4-1): Debuts for powerhouse connections and is another bred to love the lawn. His dam was a stakes horse in France, and she’s thrown, among others, multiple graded stakes-winning turf router Fort Washington; #5 BLAME JERRY (6-1): Goes out for the Pletcher/Velazquez tag team and hammered for $200,000 at Keeneland last year. This son of Blame is a full brother to Grade 3 winner Onus and fellow stakes horse Silvology, and his dam is kin to millionaire grass horses Ironicus and On Leave, among others.

R4

Just Licorice
Bestfriend Rocket
Art Fair

#6 JUST LICORICE (5/2): Won out of the Wilson chute earlier this month and will look to do it again here. I’m not crazy about the post, but I do like his running style, which hints that he’ll be able to sit an ideal stalking trip in this wide-open event; #2 BESTFRIEND ROCKET (7/2): Ran in some very aggressive spots earlier this year, including the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby. He’s gone to a different barn following the passing of D. Wayne Lukas, and a return to his late-2024 form would give him a shot; #7 ART FAIR (7/2): Feels like the main speed and could benefit from a slight drop in class. The far outside post isn’t ideal, but he seems like the quickest of the quick in here.

R5

Mozambique (MTO)
Makeyourmoment
Wind Dancer

#8 MAKEYOURMOMENT (5/2): Feels like the lone speed in here, and that’s always a good thing in two-turn turf routes on this circuit. The slight cutback in distance should help him here, and I’m banking on him getting comfortable early and forgetting to stop; #3 WIND DANCER (7/2): Has certainly had plenty of chances, but his last-out effort saw him go wide in a race that wasn’t a slow one for the level. He gets a better draw here, and it’s not like there are any monsters signed on; #2 POWERED BY COAL (2-1): May go favored in here, but I have my doubts. He had a picture-perfect trip leading through slow fractions last time and couldn’t get the job done. My top pick seems faster out of the gate, and the morning line price on this one seems like an underlay.

R6

Keepinitreal
Bond entry
Gamebred

#2 KEEPINITREAL (7/5): Was second at a short price in his 2025 debut, but to be fair, that was his first start since October. That day’s third-place finisher came back to win impressively at next asking, and this field seems significantly weaker; BOND ENTRY (8-1): I’m intrigued by first-time starter #1A SPEIGHTFUL STORM, who has a few strong works on his tab. This barn is a patient one, but there’s reason to think he may have some talent; #9 GAMEBRED (10-1): Has had gate issues in both of his prior starts, but he gets a friendly outside draw here, which should help. The addition of Lasix is also a plus, and I think he could be sitting on an improved effort at a bit of a price.

R7

Bernietakescharge (MTO)
La Mehana
No Show Sammy Jo

#1 LA MEHANA (3-1): Is one of several Miguel Clement trainees in the Grade 2 Glens Falls, and she overcame a pretty slow pace to get the money last time out. She may need to do that again here, but she’s shown she’s a consistent sort that loves this 12-furlong distance; #2 NO SHOW SAMMY JO (9/2): Seems like the main speed in here, which is never a bad thing to be in a turf marathon at the Spa. She got nailed by my top pick last time, but she’s got a ton of back class and figures to be the one they’ll have to catch; #6 BELLEZZA (5/2): Chased She Feels Pretty in the Grade 1 New York last month and stretches back out to a marathon trip. She took the Grade 3 Sheepshead Bay two back, and Joel Rosario climbs aboard for this one.

R8

She’s Complicated
Alpine Giant
Speed of Sound

#3 ALPINE GIANT (2-1): Prevailed at a price last time out and tries winners for the first time here. However, this restricted claiming event seems to have come up pretty soft for the level, and she’s training as though a forward move is coming second off the layoff; #5 SPEED OF SOUND (3-1): Hasn’t run in more than a year and comes back for a tag, which is a red flag. However, these connections can be aggressive, and her debut at Gulfstream last May was a sharp effort; #2 PARTY AT THE POST (30-1): Is a massive price, but tries turf for the first time and is bred to love it. She’s by Caravaggio and out of a Noble Mission mare, and she may not have to be much to crash the exotics at a big number.

R9

Reddington
Gamblers Tail
Warrior Richard

#1 REDDINGTON (3-1): Gets a great inside draw out of the chute and has the early speed to take advantage of it. He ran into Grade 1 winner Highland Falls last time out, and there are no runners like that in this event; #5 GAMBLERS TAIL (6-1): Cuts back to a quasi-one-turn trip, and I think that’s his preferred game. Two turns has seemed a bit much for him, and he ran several strong races in Kentucky going a bit shorter earlier this season; #6 WARRIOR RICHARD (2-1): Ships in from Kentucky for Joe Sharp, which is already reason enough to think he’ll run well here, but I have some doubts. He’s 0-for-4 at the Spa, and his race out of the chute last year against much weaker horses wasn’t a good one.

R10

Antietam
Atomic Age
Blast Furnace

#11 ANTIETAM (6-1): Hasn’t raced since November, but has been working well, tries turf for the first time, and is bred to love it. This son of Curlin is a half to European champion Air Force Blue, and if he’s ready to run, I think he could show he’s wanted the grass all along; #5 ATOMIC AGE (4-1): Is another coming off the bench for strong connections. He tries Lasix for the first time, his last race before going to the sidelines wasn’t bad, and Chad Brown knows how to get comebackers ready to go; #7 BLAST FURNACE (5-1): Broke through with his best  effort yet last time out, when he lost a tough photo downstate. That was his first time going two turns on turf, and his tactical speed may mean he’s the one they have to chase turning for home.

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,003

Jockey Tyler Conner needs our help. He went down in a spill earlier this week at Colonial Downs and was airlifted to a local hospital. Tyler’s been diagnosed with a fractured C1 vertebrae and a broken nose, and he’s got a long road to recovery ahead of him.

A GoFundMe has been established to help Tyler and his family. If you cash a nice ticket today, or if you’re just feeling generous, this is an extremely worthy cause to support. Jockeys put their bodies on the line in every race, every day, and I’m happy to raise awareness of a way we can give back.

FRIDAY’S RESULTS: In a theme that was also present last summer and this past Belmont week, I’m running second a lot. Finger Lakes shipper Styner ran his eyeballs out, but lost by a head. I dropped $30.

SATURDAY’S PLAY: I’m going to focus on the middle Pick Four, which starts in the fourth and hits me as an intriguing sequence. My 50-cent ticket goes as follows: 1 with 2,6,7,8,11 with 3,4,8,13 with 4,7,8,9. If #1 ARTHUR’S RIDE runs as expected and we get a couple of prices home around him, I think this could pay reasonably well.

TOTAL WAGERED: $40.

SARATOGA SELECTIONS AND ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Classic Q, Race 9
Longshot: Blamicker, Race 8

R1

Loco Abarrio
Friar Laurence
Otto the Conqueror

#2 LOCO ABARRIO (5/2): Takes a significant class drop in the Saurday opener for William Walden, who’s won at a very, very high percentage. I think this one is the speed of the speed, and if that’s the case, he could prove tough to run down; #5 FRIAR LAURENCE (4-1): Also drops in class and got the job done against $50,000 claimers two back at Churchill. He seems like one of the few closers in here, and he should certainly get some pace to chase; #4 OTTO THE CONQUEROR (8/5): Has ample back class and certainly wants to be forwardly-placed. My hesitation is because six furlongs seems a bit shorter than what he truly wants, and at his likely price, I find him a bit tough to swallow.

R2

Soldier N Diplomat
Accost
Further Ado

#4 SOLDIER N DIPLOMAT (8/5): Hammered for $950,000 at OBS earlier this year despite a modest pedigree and has turned in some strong gate works ahead of his debut. All indications are he’s a runner, and he’s my strongest lean in a loaded 2-year-old maiden race; #5 ACCOST (6-1): Debuts for Chad Brown and has a recent bullet on his sheet. His bottom-side pedigree is pretty impressive, as his dam won a stakes race and his second dam threw a total of seven winners; #6 FURTHER ADO (5/2): Sold for $550,000 earlier this year and is another with a strong work tab. He’s kin to a horse named Kimbear, who’s won multiple stakes races in Dubai, and he looks like a contender despite possibly wanting a bit longer than this distance.

R3

Brave Buck
Tarpaulin
Dialbolico

#4 BRAVE BUCK (3-1): Wasn’t persevered with last time out, and he was claimed out of that race by Linda Rice, who aggressively drops him in class for this event. She’s won at a ridiculous 41% clip with horses dropping first off the clim, and he has back races that would win this; #8 TARPAULIN (5/2): Runs for a tag again after two tries against starter allowance company, and he’d benefit from some pace in front of him. He’s a 3-year-old going against older, which is a question mark, but ignore these high-percentage connections at your own peril; #7 DIALBOLICO (12-1): Has never run a truly bad race sprinting and goes first off the claim for an outfit that doesn’t reach in much. He was third last time out, and that day’s winner came back to win again earlier in the meet.

R4

Arthur’s Ride
Trademark
Film Star

#1 ARTHUR’S RIDE (4/5): Won last year’s Grade 1 Whitney, but misfired twice against top-tier competition before going to the sidelines. This isn’t an easy spot for the level, but he gets to run with Lasix, which has significantly helped him in the past. If he’s ready, the race is for second; #2 TRADEMARK (6-1): Is a graded stakes winner in his own right, having won the Grade 2 Clark in 2023. He may have gained some confidence with a last-out win in Indiana, and he’s got enough tactical speed to sit an ideal stalking trip; #3 FILM STAR (7/2): Has done plenty of good work at the Spa and may have been compromised by a wide trip last time out. His two-back effort was solid, and he’s another that figures to be on or near the lead early.

R5

Dark Magic (MTO)
Unbroken Chain
Nano Man

#6 UNBROKEN CHAIN (6-1): Takes a drop in class after two turf tries against higher-level competition downstate. Melanie Giddings has had some success already this summer, and those two tries on turf were far from bad; #8 NANO MAN (9/2): Goes back to John Kimmel, who won with him at this route last summer. His last two races at Gulfstream were going two turns, and I think he’ll significantly benefit from a cutback in distance; #11 READY SET TWIRL (10-1): Was fourth against a tougher group a few weeks ago and drops into restricted claiming company, which is significant class relief. Rudy Rodriguez’s barn has gotten off to a rough start, and the post position isn’t ideal, but he doesn’t need to move forward much from his last-out effort to be a factor in this wide-open turf sprint.

R6

Summer Whirl (AE)
Tongue Twister
North End Lady

#13 SUMMER WHIRL (5-1): Needs a scratch to draw in but merits a big chance if she gets to run. She lost a pretty dirty photo last time out going a bit longer, and while she’ll be far back early on, there does seem to be some pace signed on, which could set up for her; #4 TONGUE TWISTER (5/2): Was wide last time out in a race without much pace, and ran a clunker at a short price as a result. The switch to Irad Ortiz Jr. is notable, and she ran well here twice a season ago; #8 NORTH END LADY (6-1): Was third in the race my top pick exits, and like that one, I think that may have just been a bit too far for her. Her races at this distance are solid, and while Barclay Tagg’s had an ice-cold 2025, this one hits me as a contender.

R7

Academia
Vajra
Tommy Jo

#9 ACADEMIA (5-1): Is one of several fillies in here with a world-class pedigree. She’s by Into Mischief, out of Grade 1 winner Wow Cat, sports a flashy recent gate drill for Chad Brown, and gets a draw near the outside, which could help this first-time starter relax a bit; #4 VAJRA (5/2): Helped set a very fast pace in her debut at Churchill, where she faded to finish fifth. She’s got an experience edge over all of her rivals in this spot, and a step forward with a start under her belt can be expected for a trainer whose horses improve with seasoning; #7 TOMMY JO (4-1): Debuts for the Pletcher/Velazquez tag team and has been working well over this surface. Her dam won multiple stakes races, and she’s from the same female family that produced Kentucky Derby runner-up Commanding Curve, among others.

R8

Blamicker
Stewie
Sir Kartrite

#4 BLAMICKER (8-1): Ships in from Finger Lakes with the regular rider in tow, which is a move that always gets my attention. He ran a big race last time to romp by more than seven lengths, and while this is a tougher spot, he’s got every right to improve second off the bench at a bit of a price; #2 STEWIE (5-1): Hasn’t won in more than 10 months, but he was a good second at this level and route last month. He shouldn’t have to go nearly as fast early on in this spot, and the rider upgrade to Irad is a big one; #8 SIR KARTRITE (8-1): May have needed his last-out clunker, which doubled as his first outing in more than six months. He flashed some potential downstate late last year, and he gets Lasix for the first time here.

R9

Kay Cup (MTO)
Classic Q
Play With Fire

#5 CLASSIC Q (2-1): My analysis of the Grade 3 Lake George boils down to four simple words, which are, “lone speed, inner turf.” I’ve seen too many races the last several years to go against horses that fit that profile, and this one may also be the one to beat on pure form, too; #10 PLAY WITH FIRE (4-1): Was a half-length behind my top pick in the Wild Applause last time out and won the Hilltop at Pimlico two back. It seems like she’s coming to hand for Chad Brown, and she’s a major player despite a less-than-ideal post position; #8 ATERRADORA (10-1): Merits a look underneath at a price considering who she’s been running against. She was fourth behind Nitrogen two back, then ran fourth behind a next-out winner in the Grade 3 Regret. She’s got some tactical speed, and I wouldn’t be surprised if she’s up a bit closer early on.

R10

Sovereignty
Hill Road
Baeza

#5 SOVEREIGNTY (2/5): Is at the top of the 3-year-old division and will be an odds-on favorite in the Grade 2 Jim Dandy. He showed a bit more tactical speed in winning the Belmont, and such a trip could also materialize here, which would put him in prime position; #4 HILL ROAD (12-1): Was fifth in the Belmont but won the Grade 3 Peter Pan two back and gets Irad Ortiz Jr. in this spot. He finished just three lengths behind this race’s second choice that day, so he really doesn’t need to move forward that much to factor in the exotics at a big price; #1 BAEZA (3-1): Chased my top pick twice this spring and was second to Journalism in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby. He stacks up well on figures, but he’s never hit me as a “win” type, and the maiden race he won hasn’t aged well. If he’s the “wise guy” horse, I think he’ll be an underlay.

R11

Nonna Lynne
Hello Beauty
De Paz entry

#6 NONNA LYNNE (6-1): Came back running when second here last month in her first try since September. She didn’t have much pace to run at, but she closed anyway and nearly got the money despite an unlucky trip. Further improvement would make the morning line a significant overlay; #9 HELLO BEAUTY (5/2): Merits respect coming in to face New York-breds, but I have a few doubts. I didn’t think her last race was that strong, and she hasn’t really shown an ability to pass others. Maybe the class drop wakes her up, but I’ll take a mild stand against her; DE PAZ ENTRY (6-1): #1 NIGHT JASMINE makes some sense, especially if she can overcome her gate issues, but I actually prefer #1A JUST ONE MORE, who needs a scratch to run. She ran a big one when second at this level downstate, and perhaps she’s coming to hand midway through her 4-year-old season.

R12

Dark Devil (MTO)
Fateful Lightning
Captcha

#7 FATEFUL LIGHTNING (2-1): Is a logical favorite in the Saturday nightcap, where he drops in class for trainer Brad Cox. His two-back effort was very good, and he probably went too far when fifth last time out going a marathon distance downstate; #3 CAPTCHA (15-1): Hasn’t run since January, but this barn has come into Saratoga on fire and there are some things to like. He’s been gelded, he adds blinkers, and the race he ran at Gulfstream produced several next-out winners; #10 HEDGE THE RISK (9/2): Has a history of finding trouble, but drops in class second off the bench for Chad Brown. That’s a very powerful move, and while the post position is an issue, a step forward isn’t out of the question, and if that happens, he’ll be a major player.

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,033

Other things took precedent Wednesday and Thursday, but I’ll use this space to lobby for a change in the NYRA calendar. This year’s Curlin Stakes was contested Thursday, just two days before the Grade 2 Jim Dandy. The latter race attracted just a five-horse field. Why put the Curlin there and potentially siphon horses from an event that’s been struggling for entries the past few seasons?

My idea, which I’ve expressed in this space before, would be to move the Curlin to Travers Day. I’d rather lose 20-1 shots from that race than lose horses who may take some money in the Jim Dandy, a race that’s also competing with races like Monmouth Park’s Haskell. Nobody benefits from this race, as it’s currently scheduled. Can we please move it?

THURSDAY’S RESULTS: My cold double was alive into the fourth race, but heavy favorite New Attitude did his best Hulk Hogan impression and put forth an equine interpretation of the phrase, “that doesn’t work for me, brother.” I dropped $25.

FRIDAY’S PLAY: When a Finger Lakes shipper in good form comes with a rider from that track in tow, I pay attention. That happens in the sixth race, where I’ll focus on #5 STYNER. In addition to a $20 win bet, I’ll have $5 doubles starting there that single Styner and end with #4 MAIORA and #6 RED VIOLET in the seventh.

TOTAL WAGERED: $30.

SARATOGA SELECTIONS AND ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Macho Music, Race 9
Longshot: Styner, Race 6

R1

Manhattan Beauty
Lady Angelina
Miss Im Pulsive

#5 MANHATTAN BEAUTY (2-1): Is one of two Bill Mott-trained firsters in the Friday opener, and while she’s not necessarily bred to be precocious, she fetched $180,000 at auction and has been working very well. First-call rider Junior Alvarado opts to pilot this one, too; #6 LADY ANGELINA (8-1): Is the “other” Mott, and she’s also got some solid works on her tab. This barn’s first-time starters often need a race, but they both look ready to go against a short field; #1 MISS IM PULSIVE (9/5): Was second in her debut downstate before a failed turf experiment here last month. Of the ones with experience, she’s clearly the most impressive, but her likely price hits me as a bit of an underlay.

R2

Miss Lao
Killy Start
Altered Shot

#6 MISS LAO (9/2): Goes first off the claim for Linda Rice, who’s one of the best in the game with new acquisitions. She should have plenty of speed to rate behind, and if she steps forward with that favorable setup, I think she provides plenty of value; #2 KILLY START (2-1): Comes back into the claiming ranks and would be a contender if she can channel her two and three-back form at this level. Irad Ortiz Jr. hops aboard for a smaller outfit, which is always notable; #3 ALTERED SHOT (8-1): Took a step forward last time when third against slightly weaker company earlier in the meet. She’s got plenty of back class, and perhaps she’s started to find her form again for a streaky barn that tends to win races in spurts.

R3

Ashes and Diamonds
Bourbon Milk Punch
Athaliah

#4 ASHES AND DIAMONDS (3-1): Comes back to turf and drops in for a tag for just the second time in her career. She’s had some adventurous trips to this point, but it seems like this distance is what she wants and Joe Sharp’s been winning a ton to this point in the meet; #5 BOURBON MILK PUNCH (3-1): Ran well to be third last time out before being claimed by a barn that, comparatively, doesn’t tend to reach into those races very often. She was second against straight maidens in her debut, and she figures to be prominent early; #6 ATHALIAH (4-1): Drops into the maiden claiming ranks after a last-out clunker at Churchill Downs. Her two-back effort at Keeneland wasn’t bad, but it’s worth noting this barn’s preferred riders wind up in other spots here.

R4

Who’s the King
Bob John Ray
Ultimate Strike

#5 WHO’S THE KING (8/5): Takes a massive class drop for very aggressive connections who aren’t afraid to lose horses via the claim box. He hasn’t won in a while, but he tried last year’s Grade 1 Pennsylvania Derby and his 2025 races feature plenty of next-out winners at higher levels; #2 BOB JOHN RAY (8-1): May provide some value underneath after almost certainly needing his last-out effort. That was his first try since September, and seven furlongs is probably a bit shorter than his desired trip. He gets more distance here and may be a bit of a price; #1 ULTIMATE STRIKE (4-1): Comes back to dirt after a failed turf experiment first off the claim, and he’s another dropping in class. He started to find his form late last year, and his two most recent works weren’t bad.

R5

New Issue
Parade Ring
Silver Pearls

#5 NEW ISSUE (5/2): Ran third in her debut downstate and was claimed out of that race by Linda Rice. Between the barn change and this being her second start, I think she’s got plenty of room to move forward here; #3 PARADE RING (9/5): Comes back to the lawn in her first try since April, and her turf races from 2024 are solid. However, I’m concerned about the voided claim last time out, followed by a layoff of more than three months. She may win as a favorite but there are red flags here; #7 SILVER PEARLS (5/2): Beat my top pick last time out when second at this level and makes her first start for new trainer John Terranova. Irad rides back for the new barn, and she’d benefit from a contested early pace.

R6

Styner
Catch the Smoke
J J’s Joker

#5 STYNER (9/2): Comes in from Finger Lakes and brings her barn’s preferred rider, which is always something I like seeing. His wire-to-wire score last time out was a sharp one, and I think he could get comfortable on a pretty easy lead here; #2 CATCH THE SMOKE (7/2): Comes back to what’s probably the right level after a failed shot against starter allowance foes earlier in the meet. His spring form was pretty solid, and this is certainly a significant class drop from his race less than 10 days ago; #4 J J’S JOKER (6-1): Goes first off the claim for a barn that knows how to move horses forward, and he tries two turns for the first time in a while. This will already be the 11th start of the season for this gelding, and it wouldn’t surprise me if we see an improved effort.

R7

So Vain (MTO)
Red Violet
Maiora

#6 RED VIOLET (3-1): Debuts for Chad Brown, gets Flavien Prat, and is bred to be a good one. This daughter of Justify is a half-sister to multiple stakes winner Rubilinda, she’s been working well, and she hits me as the one to beat in her unveiling; #4 MAIORA (4-1): Was green before her initial outing last month, but she ran well enough to be second going shorter. The bottom side of her pedigree is all-distance, and she’s got an experience edge on most of the other contenders; PLETCHER ENTRY (9/2): I prefer #2B TIME TO DREAM, who hammered for $750,000 across the street last summer. She’s out of a Street Sense mare, which is a clue she may want turf, and Jose Ortiz sees fit to climb aboard.

R8

Cara’s Chianti
Darty Time
Circuit Court

#4 CARA’S CHIANTI (9/2): Is a tepid top pick in a truly puzzling maiden claimer. She lost all chance at the break last time, but showed speed against straight maidens twice before that, and perhaps the drop in class is what will wake her up; #6 DARTY TIME (3-1): Was a pace factor in the slop in her unveiling before finishing seventh of eight, and the drop is probably the right move. Prat will ride for Al Stall, who usually means business with the string he brings from Kentucky; #7 CIRCUIT COURT (8-1): Stepped forward last time out, when she was third beaten less than a length at Aqueduct. This barn’s been through some turmoil lately, but a repeat of that effort may be good enough to get it done here.

R9

Macho Music
Uncaged
Gate to Wire

#1 MACHO MUSIC (2-1): Seems like the main speed in the Grade 2 Amsterdam, and he’s shown he’s a handful when those stars align. His effort in the Grade 1 Woody Stephens was disappointing, but perhaps he bounced off a career-best performance two back in the Grade 2 Pat Day Mile; #8 UNCAGED (15-1): Merits a look at a big price getting back to what he wants to do. He simply didn’t belong in the Grade 1 Belmont, but the three one-turn efforts on his sheet are solid enough, the outside draw could help, and these connections aren’t this price often; #5 GATE TO WIRE (5-1): Clunked up for sixth in the Woody Stephens and would benefit from another horse going with my top pick early. He’s got some talent, but seems to find trouble. If Dylan Davis can give him a clean trip, perhaps we’ll see a return to his stakes-winning form.

R10

Catholic Edition
Practical Romance
Addagirl Addie

#3 CATHOLIC EDITION (3-1): Ran well in her debut, when she closed to be third and made up a fair bit of ground despite a moderate pace and a wide trip. Pace is a question mark here, but she’s certainly eligible to improve, and if she does, I think she’s got a big shot; #9 PRACTICAL ROMANCE (4-1): Stretches back out to two turns and gets class relief going against maiden claimers for the first time. She’s shown some tactical speed and should be a factor early on beneath John Velazquez; #5 ADDAGIRL ADDIE (9/2): Has certainly had plenty of chances, but most of those were for lower-percentage barns, and her last-out effort was probably the best race of her career. It’s possible she’s starting to figure things out, and 13th time could be the charm in a wide-open Friday finale.