BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,273.43

My first “real job” in the media world was as a fill-in anchor and reporter at WKNY-AM Radio in Kingston, New York, where I did news and sports coverage in the summers between years at high school and college. It’s since been rebranded as Radio Kingston, and I’ll be on with my friend Dan Reinhard at 12 pm Eastern on Sunday to discuss the goings-on at Saratoga.

I’ve done the show a few times, and it’s always a blast being able to talk horses at a place that means something to me. You can listen through the Radio Kingston website, and I hope you’ll make time to tune in!

SATURDAY’S RESULTS: Twinkle Town romped in the Saratoga Special to make it a good day, and Sassmaster rallied in the seventh to make it a great day. In total, $40 in bets returned $160.80.

SUNDAY’S PLAY: I don’t think we’ll get the 10-1 morning line price on #2 NOBALS in the seventh, but I’d like him quite a bit at even half that price and I’ll bet accordingly. I’ll have a $20 win bet on him, along with $3 exactas using him above and below #1 CREDITWORTHY and #3 NOTHING BETTER. As an aside, don’t listen to the stuffy people who, several years ago, tried to insist the name is pronounced “nobles.” It’s pronounced exactly how it looks, and yes, Nobals is a gelding.

TOTAL WAGERED: $32.

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SARATOGA SELECTIONS AND ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Hot Currency, Race 2
Longshot: Starship Lizzy, Race 11

R1

Coach of the Year
Silly Season
Rosemont Garden

#3 COACH OF THE YEAR (3-1): Was the victim of, in this handicapper’s opinion, an all-time bad disqualification last time out, when she was clearly best and got placed fourth. Jockey Jose Lezcano has been ice-cold ever since, but a similar type of effort may get her the money here (for real this time); #8 SILLY SEASON (7/2): Was favored in that race, but ran like a horse that needed one after a layoff of more than eight months. Chad Brown adds blinkers second off the bench, and Flavien Prat stays on; #6 ROSEMONT GARDEN (10-1): Debuts going long, which isn’t an easy task, but she’s bred to be very, very good. Her female family includes the dams of some very nice horses, including accomplished turf miler Summer Front and Grade 1-winning 2-year-old Laragh. If she’s ready, she could factor at a price in the Sunday lid-lifter.

R2

Hot Currency
Grace and Grit
Kay Cup

#2 HOT CURRENCY (8/5): Drops back into the optional claiming ranks after running a good second in the Bouwerie in June. That day’s winner came back to win again, and this one is able to run with Lasix again on the drop in class. This isn’t an easy spot for the level, but she looks tough; #6 GRACE AND GRIT (4-1): Has been going very, very well for Amelia Green and was a good-looking winner here a few weeks ago. She hasn’t finished outside the top two in five starts for this barn, and she’d benefit from a fast pace; #3 KAY CUP (3-1): Hasn’t run since December, and given her fade to fourth as a 7/5 favorite, it’s safe to assume something went wrong that day. She got pretty good here last summer, though, and she’s been working steadily for an astute barn ahead of her 2026 debut.

R3

Willie Bird
Norwich
Shoot the Nickel

#7 WILLIE BIRD (3-1): Ships in for high-percentage trainer Larry Rivelli after winning four of his last five starts. He’s versatile, being able to run well on the lead or from off the pace, and Irad Ortiz, Jr., has said, “Rivelli? I’ll ride Rivelli!” If you don’t get it, search “Larry Rivelli commercial” on YouTube; #2 NORWICH (5/2): Did everything but win here last time out, when he carved out solid fractions going seven furlongs and was beaten just a half-length. He feels like the main speed in here, and if he breaks on top, he could prove tough to catch; #5 SHOOT THE NICKEL (4-1): May have moved a bit too soon last time out in a race that fell apart up front. He settled for second that day, but Prat stays aboard for Linda Rice, and he hasn’t run a truly poor race this calendar year.

R4

Royal Bobbie (MTO)
Dividend Recap
Starlight Dancer

#5 DIVIDEND RECAP (5/2): Was a decent second last time out despite a wide trip in a race that didn’t really set up for her. The pace scenario here is a question mark, but she’s run well enough at this level in the past, and her usual effort puts her right there; #7 STARLIGHT DANCER (6-1): Took advantage of a drop in class by winning downstate and returns to Saratoga, where she’s run well in a pair of local starts. She’s shown she likes this nine-furlong route, and Kendrick Carmouche has gotten the best out of her on several occasions; #1 RIVER TAY (5-1): Didn’t have a great trip and was fourth in the race my top pick exits. It wasn’t long ago, though, that she won four in a row, and it’s not like her last two efforts have been bad. The rail draw should allow her to save a little ground, and a pace setup would certainly help, too.

R5

Calling Card (MTO)
Coach Case
Salt Spartan

#9 COACH CASE (2-1): Came back running off the bench last time and nearly won his first start since November. He didn’t have a fantastic trip that day, and while he’ll need to negotiate a trip from a tricky outside post, Flavien Prat’s one of the best in the business for a reason, and any sort of a step forward second off the bench would give him a big shot; #10 SALT SPARTAN (3-1): Has an even worse post, but may also be this race’s lone speed and could clear this field going into the first turn. He may need to go quickly to do it, but his last-out effort going longer was solid and Carmouche is fantastic at getting horses going out of the gate; #2 DREAMS OF ROME (15-1): Is one of two Horacio de Paz trainees, and despite being the bigger price, he’s the one I prefer. He broke his maiden two back in his second career start, then went up against open company, which is a big jump. He’s back against state-breds here, and I think he may have room to improve.

R6

Modest Maclean
Bossofeverything
My Togo

#8 MODEST MACLEAN (5/2): Debuts for Linda Rice off of a very impressive gate drill and catches what doesn’t seem like a strong field for the level. The outside draw could help him a bit, and so could the presence of Irad Ortiz, Jr., who may have had a few options given the connections in this field; #1 BOSSOFEVERYTHING (9/2): Has run two so-so races and comes in off of a brief freshening. He was fairly close to a legitimate pace last time, and he may not have to go that fast to secure ideal positioning this time around; #4 MY TOGO (7/2): Makes his first start for Chad Brown and will likely take plenty of money. His works look OK, but it’s worth noting they came at Monmouth Park. That’s not as big a red flag as it used to be, but it still raises a few questions.

R7

Gunmetal (MTO)
Nobals
Creditworthy

#2 NOBALS (10-1): Seems unlikely to go off at his morning line price given his credentials, which include a win in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint. He misfired at Presque Isle last time, but he goes back to turf with Prat aboard and this is his third try off the bench; #1 CREDITWORTHY (3-1): Is a closer in a race full of early speed, and that makes him appealing despite a long layoff. He hasn’t raced in nearly a year, but he’s run well fresh in the past and is 2-for-2 at this route. If he’s ready, he should get the setup he wants; #3 NOTHING BETTER (9/2): Came back running with an easy score at Penn National where he was never really threatened. This is a much better group that has several other speed horses signed on, but he’s a 13-time winner with plenty of strong efforts against this type of group.

R8

Bernietakescharge (MTO)
Gezora
Survie

#9 GEZORA (5/2): Put forth a puzzling no-show in the Grade 1 New York, but I’m willing to give her a pass. It was her first start after a highly-publicized trainer switch, and perhaps Bill Mott didn’t have a chance to get to know her. Her best race buries the field in the Grade 2 Glens Falls, and perhaps we’ll get a bettable price given the last-out clunker; #6 SURVIE (7/2): Makes her U.S. debut and is no stranger to high-level competition. She was third in a Group 1 earlier this year, and she wasn’t far behind Gezora in another Group 1 last year in France; #8 SPEED SHOPPER (4-1): Also didn’t show up in the New York, but won three of four starts before that and is proven at this 12-furlong distance. The rider switch to Irad Ortiz, Jr., is a big one, and a return to form would absolutely make her a contender.

R9

Chief Wallabee
Blackout Time
Gulfy

#6 CHIEF WALLABEE (4/5): Was fourth in two legs of the Triple Crown and gets significant class relief in the Curlin (which, as usual, has pulled a few potential runners out of the Jim Dandy, and that seems like a scheduling mistake). His best effort is very, very good, and I think he’ll appreciate not having to knock heads with the likes of Golden Tempo; #7 BLACKOUT TIME (3-1): Took advantage of first-level allowance company last time out and waltzed home clear by six lengths. Lasix may have moved him forward, but he did show some potential last season, when he was second behind Ted Noffey at Keeneland, and perhaps he’s just maturing midway into his 3-year-old season; #1 GULFY (8-1): May not want two turns, but he sure looks like the lone early speed. He tired to run fourth in the Grade 3 Peter Pan, but he may be able to sit an easier trip in this spot. If he does, he could hang on for a piece of it at a price.

R10

Scarlett Begonia
Pierette
Luminous Beauty

#6 SCARLETT BEGONIA (5/2): Was very professional in her debut at Ellis Park, where she rated, floated outside, and rolled home to win by nearly four lengths. First-time starters very rarely run like that, and that poise should serve her well in the Grade 3 Adirondack; #3 PIERETTE (3-1): Has done nothing wrong to this point, with two wins in as many starts for the red-hot Mark Casse barn. She’s shown enough early speed to stalk and pounce, and on speed figures, she’s certainly run well enough to be a big factor; #5 LUMINOUS BEAUTY (10-1): Was eased in the Schuylerville, when she was sent off as an even-money favorite. That certainly isn’t ideal, but if she’s back running, it’s fair to assume she’s OK, and while Prat goes elsewhere, a repeat of her strong two-back effort would put her in play at a bettable price.

R11

Starship Lizzy
Jayme’s Turn
Quell

#10 STARSHIP LIZZY (10-1): Gets a tepid nod in a mess of a finale. She hasn’t run since November, but she gets Lasix for the first time and her connections protect her from being claimed in her comeback race. That’s one of my favorite angles, and at least she offers a few things to recommend; #2 JAYME’S TURN (5-1): Goes to the dirt and takes a drop in class for Linda Rice, which is a move she’s enjoyed great success making. Her dirt works are decent enough, the rider switch to Manny Franco is a good one, and she wouldn’t have to move forward a ton to be a contender; #9 QUELL (6-1): Has had two eventful trips in as many starts, but she adds blinkers, which could help her focus. She did at least show a little speed last time, and the presence of Ricardo Santana, Jr., means she could be forwardly-placed again in the Sunday nightcap.

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,152.63

Renegade and Commandment are getting most of the headlines going into Saturday’s Saratoga card, but to me, it’s 2-year-olds that take center stage. Five of the first six races on the card are baby races, including the Grade 2 Saratoga Special. If you like diving into pedigrees and getting excited about prospects for the future, this is as exciting a program as any.

Churchill Downs has “Stars of Tomorrow” programs a few times each year. Most of Saratoga would be too early for such a program, but I wouldn’t mind if NYRA exclusively focused on 2-year-old races for one day of the meet’s final week. You’d get full fields, for sure, and it’d be a chance to see future stars grace one of racing’s biggest stages all day long.

FRIDAY’S RESULTS: First Call Bob absolutely shouldn’t have been odds-on in the fourth, but he bailed out chalk players in the stretch. I took a stand against him and dropped $30.

SATURDAY’S PLAY: If Ken McPeek has a good day, so do I. My key horse is #3 TWINKLE TOWN in the sixth (the Saratoga Special), and I’ll start with a $20 win bet on him. I’ll also play $5 doubles that single him to start and finish in the seventh with #1 SASSMASTER and #4 UNIVERSE. In addition, since Universe would hit me as a significant overlay at or near that 8-1 price, I’ll also play $5 “saver” doubles starting in the sixth with #4 BOOKED and #6 FLIGHT COMMAND and finishing with Universe as a single.

TOTAL WAGERED: $40.

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SARATOGA SELECTIONS AND ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Twinkle Town, Race 6
Longshot: Universe, Race 7

R1

Voyager
Correlation Trade
Bashfully

#5 VOYAGER (8/5): Has run very well twice on dirt, including a solid second in the Schuylerville. Two turns and turf should be within her scope given her pedigree and running style, and the experience edge she has over many of these is a big plus in the Saturday opener; #3 CORRELATION TRADE (2-1): Debuts for Chad Brown, gets Flavien Prat, and has an all-turf pedigree (which isn’t surprising since she was bred across the pond). This outfit has had great success with runners like these over the years, and there’s a chance she’s got plenty of talent; #2 BASHFULLY (9/2): Is a half-sister to Grade 1-winning turfer Beach Patrol, and her second dam threw several very, very strong runners. Todd Pletcher-trained debuters on turf sometimes need a race to get going, but Jose Ortiz shows up here and a few of her works appear solid.

R2

Doitforjack
Velora
Lot of Loon

#8 DOITFORJACK (6-1): Is out of a mare whose two prior foals to race are both multiple winners, and her second dam is Grade 2 winner Seeking the Ante, which basically makes this one state-bred royalty. Brendan Walsh doesn’t usually work 2-year-olds fast, so the two-back bullet drill from the gate at Churchill jumps off the page; #4 VELORA (7/2): Hammered for $300,000 at the OBS sale this past April and debuts for Linda Rice after a series of strong drills, including a local bullet. Rice isn’t necessarily known for first-out success, but her clip with those runners isn’t bad, and offspring of Yaupon have proven to be precocious; #6 LOT OF LOON (5-1): Is another that merits consideration in this wide-open baby race. She sold for $225,000 across the street last year, her dam is a full sister to multiple stakes winner Bank Sting, and a consistent string of drills for Brad Cox may mean she’s ready to go at first asking.

R3

Eliminate
Reasoned Analysis
Gewurztraminer

#5 ELIMINATE (5-1): Is a pace play for me in an event out of the Wilson chute where, to be frank, I don’t really have a strong opinion. However, there’s a lot of speed signed on, and this one has shown he can rate and pass others late. That trip isn’t necessarily an ideal one at this route, but the faster they go early, the better his chances figure to be; #6 REASONED ANALYSIS (2-1): Pressed a legitimate pace at this route in his first start since April of 2025 and wound up third after that pace fell apart late. He may once again be close to some heat up front, and the outside post isn’t ideal, but he could also be tighter second off the long break for this high-percentage barn; #1 GEWURZTRAMINER (4-1): Generally always fires and missed by a head last time out at Churchill. Inside-drawn speed is tough to ignore out of the chute, and it helps that that day’s third-place finisher came back to win at next asking.

R4

Dream More
Cybersteel
Pinpoint

#9 DREAM MORE (3-1): Sold for $1.5 million at auction as a yearling, and for good reason. He’s by Gun Runner, out of multiple Grade 1-winning mare Cavorting, and a half to multiple Grade 1-winning mare Clairiere. The two-back drill was very, very strong, and the outside draw is a plus for a horse going postward for the first time; #6 CYBERSTEEL (4-1): Hammered for $325,000 at Keeneland and has a right to be a good one for connections that have saddled some good 2-year-olds. He’s by Cyberknife and out of a mare that has thrown, among others, Life Talk, a Grade 2 winner that placed in Grade 1 company; #7 PINPOINT (8-1): Has an experience edge over some of these and lost all chance at the break in his debut. That day’s winner, Booked, went on to win the Grade 3 Sanford. A cleaner break here, combined with a logical move forward at second asking, may give the “other Pletcher” a fighting chance.

R5

Life Changing
Wyna
First Site

#8 LIFE CHANGING (5-1): Is yet another regally-bred firster donning the Repole blue and orange and trained by Todd Pletcher. She’s kin to Preakness winner Seize the Grey, and her female family includes the dams of Grade 1 winners Power Broker and Miss Shop (as well as Grade 2 winner Trappe Shot). The strong works are there, and I think she could be a good one; #6 WYNA (4-1): Looks like another well-meant Brad Cox trainee debuting from the 6-hole (weird that he has three of those…). She sold for $280,000 as a weanling, a steady string of works inspires confidence, and Irad Ortiz, Jr., winds up here when he likely had a few options; #10 FIRST SITE (6-1): Came up just short at second asking last time out and has a huge experience edge. She may need to take another step forward to contend here, but the rider switch to Jose Ortiz is a big one and I’m expecting her to be prominent early.

R6

Twinkle Town
Flight Command
Booked

#3 TWINKLE TOWN (7/2): Did everything right in his debut at Churchill, when he aired by more than six lengths and beat, among others, a runner-up that came back to graduate at next asking. The Grade 2 Saratoga Special isn’t an easy spot, but he’s continued to work well for Ken McPeek, who doesn’t usually rush his 2-year-olds along; #6 FLIGHT COMMAND (9/5): Was never challenged in his debut downstate, which he won by 10 lengths. That, combined with the presence of sire Flightline, will move money, but it’s worth noting that this barn has been ice-cold since the start of the Saratoga meet; #4 BOOKED (7/5): Made me look silly when I tried to beat him in the Sanford, and he may make me look silly again. Having said that, I don’t think he beat a ton that day, and he got an absolutely ideal trip that doesn’t seem likely to be replicated here.

R7

Sassmaster
Universe
Hop Sing

#1 SASSMASTER (3-1): Came back running in his first try since last August when he held on to break his maiden in the slop. That day’s runner-up won here on Thursday, and a logical move forward second off the bench may be enough to get him to the winner’s circle again; #4 UNIVERSE (8-1): Tried some tough spots before going to the sidelines in March. He comes back after the ultimate equipment change (he’ll run as a first-time gelding), will add Lasix in his first-ever allowance start, and may have tipped his hand with a few strong local workouts; #2 HOP SING (6-1): Hasn’t won in over a year, but his lone prior start at this route last summer was very, very good. He may have needed his late-May race off of a six-month layoff, and a return to his 2025 form would, at a minimum, make him one of the ones to catch.

R8

Golden Irish (MTO)
Silsbee
Only for Now

#5 SILSBEE (5/2): Has run just once since November, but that was a strong second here Belmont week, and I’m counting on her being tighter here second off the bench for George Weaver. She got pretty good last year before going to the sidelines, and that type of effort would give her a big shot; #3 ONLY FOR NOW (5-1): Tried stakes company last time out and didn’t disgrace herself when fifth despite a wide trip. She goes against first-level allowance foes, which means she’ll run with Lasix again, and Flavien Prat has been enticed to ride; #2 LADY JANCIS (3-1): Never looked like a loser in her return to the races in June, when she overwhelmed a field of maidens. Perhaps she improves again here for Steve Asmussen and Irad Ortiz, Jr., but I don’t think that perfect trip materializes again. She may need to improve to beat a tough bunch for the level, and her likely price hits me as a slight underlay.

R9

Lion Lake
Deep Learning
Time to Dream

#9 LION LAKE (3-1): Will have to work out a trip from a tough outside post in the Grade 3 Lake George, but she’s as consistent as they come. She was a close-up second in the Grade 2 Wonder Again here in June, she’s been training well, and she may have the early speed to clear most of this group early; #8 DEEP LEARNING (7/2): Hasn’t run since November but flashed potential last season, when she won one stakes race and finished second in another. This barn can get horses ready to go off the bench, and her first-out win here almost a year ago was one of the most impressive efforts by a 2-year-old at the Spa last summer; #4 TIME TO DREAM (5-1): Looked outstanding in two wins here last year, but seems to have plateaued and hasn’t won since. She wasn’t far behind my top pick two back, though, and she rated behind a loose-on-the-lead winner last time out in the Grade 1 Belmont Oaks.

R10

Renegade
Commandment
Chip Honcho

#3 RENEGADE (7/5): Headlines a short field in the Grade 2 Jim Dandy and will look to atone for a relative dud in the Grade 1 Belmont. He was favored that day but may have moved a hair too early. His prior efforts this season, though, have been great, and his best would make him tough; #5 COMMANDMENT (6/5): Adds blinkers after settling for second in the Belmont behind division leader Golden Tempo. That was a bounce-back effort after a disappointing seventh in the Grade 1 Kentucky Derby, and the blinkers may give him an ideal stalking trip; #1 CHIP HONCHO (3-1): Looks like the main speed in here and exits a win over some solid runners in the Grade 3 Ohio Derby. It’s a step up in class, but there are worse things than inside-drawn speed at Saratoga, and he could lead them a long way.

R11

B Provocateur (MTO)
Illmatic
Dakota Country

#1 ILLMATIC (9/2): Took a tough beat against state-bred stakes foes downstate, when he was second beaten a nose in a three-horse photo. He gets to run with Lasix here against first-level allowance company, and while he’s a 3-year-old going against older, it’s not like there are any monsters here; #9 DAKOTA COUNTRY (8/5): Goes first off the claim for Bob Hess, who doesn’t ship many horses east. He won two in a row at Santa Anita for former NorCal stalwart Steve Sherman (RIP, Northern California horse racing…), and while California turf form sometimes doesn’t travel, he more than fits on speed figures; #2 JOKER ON FIRE (5-1): Has been close in both of his prior outings at this route and was most recently second beaten a length against open company. He runs against state-breds here, and he could sit the highly-desired “stalk and pounce” trip.

R12

Jadorlinija (MTO)
Nonconsecutivetrms
Amicable Farce

#5 NONCONSECUTIVETRMS (5/2): Did a lot right in her comeback race in July, when she stalked and hit the front before settling for second in her first try since December. She adds Lasix here, gets Jose Ortiz, and looks very, very tough in the Saturday nightcap; #3 AMICABLE FARCE (5-1): Ran well in mid-June to finish second in her first outing since August. She’s another eligible to improve second off the bench for a high-percentage barn, and if she’s figured things out and runs to the elite bottom-side pedigree she has, look out; #2 MUSIC BOX (8-1): Has run second in each of her three starts to date and had some excuses last time, when she had traffic trouble and came up just a half-length short. That was at Colonial, and this may be a tougher spot, but at least she’s shown she can pass others, and we may get a decent price on a horse that hasn’t done a whole lot wrong to this point other than being unlucky.

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,182.63

To know me is to know my horrible and/or hilarious philosophies that, in some circles, are referred to as “dad jokes,” so here we go.

I’m seeing “The Odyssey” with my wife this week. By all sane accounts, it’s a fantastic movie-going experience. However, I’ve got a big fundamental issue that I’ll address in this space.

According to legend, it took Matt Damon’s character decades to travel from Troy to Ithaca. This feels wrong. Speaking from having done that trip many times in the past, all you need to do is hop on I-88 and state route 79 (or, if you prefer, the Thruway, I-481, I-81, and state route 13), and you can handle it in a mere three hours or so.

I hear you booing, and I’m not sorry. Be careful, or I’ll tell you what happened when I was kidnapped by mimes.

THURSDAY’S RESULTS: Playing Tricks never kicked on in the third, and I dropped $30.

FRIDAY’S PLAY: I’ll head to the fourth, where I’m hoping the morning line price holds up on #1 FIRST CALL BOB. He’s not impossible, but the 4/5 price hits me as a massive underlay. I like #4 I’M WORTHY, the subject of a $30 win bet.

TOTAL WAGERED: $30.

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SARATOGA SELECTIONS AND ANALYSIS

Best Bet: I’m Worthy, Race 4
Longshot: Parkridge, Race 6

R1

Without Hesitation
River of Deceit
Wood Island

#2 WITHOUT HESITATION (9/5): Hammered for $2.3 million at the OBS sale this past spring and has been working consistently for first-out maestro Wesley Ward. Sire Jackie’s Warrior is off to a slow start, but this one has been aggressively touting herself ahead of her debut in Friday’s opener; #4 RIVER OF DECEIT (2-1): Has an experience edge over most of these, having run a good second downstate in mid-June. He may have moved a bit too soon that day, and this is a barn whose horses generally improve with experience; #1 WOOD ISLAND (7/2): Has been working well for George Weaver and attracts Irad Ortiz, Jr., who likely had a few options here. The two-back gate drill was sharp, and he also worked well on the grass earlier this month, too.

R2

Risky Mission
Saysomethingnice
Cream Puff

#8 RISKY MISSION (4-1): Is spotted logically given her sire Mission Impazible’s $2,500 stud fee and has a few things going for her. Her dam was stakes-placed as a 2-year-old and has thrown three winners to date, she’s been working consistently for Linda Rice, and the outside draw is a plus; #2 SAYSOMETHINGNICE (6-1): Didn’t do much running here last month, but she takes an aggressive drop in class at second asking. It’s not like there’s much to recommend from her lone effort to date, but it’s not unprecedented for 2-year-olds to step forward in a big way second time out, and maybe she wouldn’t need to improve much to factor here; #3 CREAM PUFF (10-1): Is worth a look underneath at a price. This isn’t a barn known for first-out success, but she’s kin to stakes-placed Tough Street, among others, and the last-out bullet drill could mean she has some talent.

R3

Mursal
Sheer Will
Proud Foot

#2 MURSAL (3-1): Is one of two Linda Rice trainees in here, and she may very well inherit the early lead by default. She’s won two of her last three, so we know she’s in good form, and if she’s able to sit the trip she wants, this 6-year-old could be tough to top; #5 SHEER WILL (2-1): Is ultra-consistent, having not missed the board in over a year. She does step up out of the starter allowance ranks, but Prat sees fit to ride back for Rice, and if another runner goes with this one’s barn buddy, she could work out a trip; #4 PROUD FOOT (7/2): Was a head behind my top pick last time out and was claimed out of that event by a barn that’s enjoyed a strong meet to this point. Manny Franco knows this mare pretty well, and while her local record isn’t the strongest, she’s proven she can run well at this level.

R4

I’m Worthy
First Call Bob
Who’s Your Zaddy

#4 I’M WORTHY (4-1): Goes first off the trainer switch to Linda Rice and presents a very appealing alternative to what will likely be a heavy favorite. We know he can run well going two turns, and he ran against a much, much better group last time out at Oaklawn. A repeat of the two-back effort gives him a big, big chance; #1 FIRST CALL BOB (4/5): Isn’t illogical, but I can’t endorse him on top. As the great Harvey Pack said, “never bet a horse, as the favorite, doing something it’s never done before.” Yes, he takes a huge drop, but he’s never gone two turns on dirt, and his speed figures are going the wrong way. This hits me as a chalk you’re supposed to try to beat; #5 WHO’S YOUR ZADDY (6-1): Got the ultimate equipment change after a failed turf experiment, and he’ll run as a first-time gelding here. His dirt races downstate earlier this year were fine, and Santana opting to ride back after the last-out clunker seems like a good thing.

R5

Disparate Impact (MTO)
Urgency
Vivaldi

#4 URGENCY (6-1): Gets a big rider switch to Jose Ortiz after a strange trip last time out at Aqueduct. He was rank early, looked home at the top of the stretch, and got caught by a perfect-trip winner. If Ortiz is able to get him relaxed early, Friday could be graduation day; #10 VIVALDI (3-1): Takes a big drop into the maiden claiming ranks and, in a lot of ways, is the one to beat. If he’s on his game, he’ll be formidable, but the far-outside post on the inner turf is a problem, and as a closer, he may need the race to fall apart (no cinch going two turns on this course); #8 DIXIE HEX (15-1): Is worth a look underneath at a price. He steadied last time out and lost quite a bit of ground. Maybe he wasn’t winning, but he certainly could’ve been much closer, and smoother sailing may mean he gets a piece of this.

R6

Calling Mr. Mo
McMoon
Parkridge

#2 CALLING MR. MO (6-1): Is a tepid top pick in a wide-open baby race for New York-breds. He’s been working very, very well for Miguel Clement, and his dam has proven productive, throwing six prior runners that have all found the winner’s circle. If he’s ready to go first time out, I think he’s live; #9 MCMOON (8-1): Is another sharp worker out of a solid broodmare. In this case, this George Weaver trainee’s dam was a debut winner who went on to place in a graded race as a 2-year-old. That two-back gate drill was a good one, and it’s far from the only strong drill on his sheet; #3 PARKRIDGE (15-1): Runs for Bill Mott, whose 2-year-olds often need some experience before they get going. However, there are some works that hint he has some ability, and John Velazquez hops aboard when he may have had some options. Maybe he needs a race, but the morning line hits me as an overlay.

R7

Sharp Spark
Metatron’s Muse
Coach Cronin

#5 SHARP SPARK (6-1): May be the beneficiary of a race shape that should favor closers. There are a few in here that will definitely want to be on or near the lead, and that’s music to this late-runner’s ears. The faster they go early on, the better his chances figure to be; #1 METATRON’S MUSE (6-1): Goes up in class after back-to-back wins and is another that figures to do his best running late. He makes his fifth consecutive start for a new trainer, but Jose Ortiz, who rode him to a win at this route a few weeks ago, sees fit to ride back; #3 COACH CRONIN (5/2): Is the one I like most out of the likely pace-setters. He was third in a stakes race at Los Alamitos last time out, and he’s shown he’s dangerous when he’s allowed to dictate terms. The question is, can he outpace #2 SECURED LANDING and have enough left in the tank when the real running starts?

R8

Liberty’s Secret
Lightning Strike
Daniella Marie

#4 LIBERTY’S SECRET (6-1): Is lightly-raced but could be a very nice filly. Her win off the bench last time out was excellent, and the recent four-furlong drill hints that this astute barn has her going in the right direction. While this is her first try against winners, it’s not like there are any monsters in here, and any sort of improvement means she has a shot at two in a row; #8 LIGHTNING STRIKE (3-1): Set a very fast pace here on Independence Day before getting reeled in by Grace and Grit, who’s been going pretty well of late. There’s some other speed in here, so she may have some work to do early, but she hits me as the one they’ll have to catch; #2 DANIELLA MARIE (5-1): Hasn’t raced in almost six months, but her form from this past winter was solid. She earned black type with a third-place finish against stakes foes and topped open company impressively before going to the bench. Some of her recent works look solid enough.

R9

Obliteration
Gilded Bandit
American Man

#7 OBLITERATION (7/5): Looms very, very large in the Grade 2 Amsterdam, especially since he won’t have to chase Englishman like he did in the Grade 1 Woody Stephens. He probably didn’t sit his ideal trip that day, when he was seventh of nine early, but he still hit the board and was beaten just a nose for second money. A similar type of effort would make him tough to deny; #4 GILDED BANDIT (9/2): Is a closer in a race with some zip signed on, which makes him interesting at a bit of a price. He’s 2-for-2 at this 6 1/2-furlong distance, and while he was a distant fourth in the Woody Stephens, that was over a surface that wasn’t playing very kindly to horses who were far back; #1 AMERICAN MAN (6-1): Ships in for Dallas Stewart, who employed similar tactics to win last year’s renewal of this race. He was second in the Grade 3 Maxfield last time out at Churchill after contesting a pretty hot pace, and if the recent bullet drill is any indication, he’s still doing well.

R10

Expecto Patronum (MTO)
Emerald Ember
Scorch

#3 EMERALD EMBER (4-1): Is a tepid top pick in a wide-open finale. She steps up in class here, but she’s yet to run a bad race on turf and comes in off of arguably her best effort to date. This barn can certainly move horses forward, and if that happens, she could make it two in a row; #1 SCORCH (9/2): Completes a fiery exacta after what hit me as a very solid effort last time out. She was second in a similar spot downstate at a price, and here, she’ll get a significant rider upgrade to Flavien Prat; #2 FIVE DOZEN ROSES (5-1): Earned the diploma last time out, albeit against a field that didn’t hit me as any great shakes. This is her first try against winners, but Linda Rice knows how to keep horses in form and the presence of Irad Ortiz, Jr., is certainly a good thing.

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,212.63

Earlier this week, Kentucky Downs announced an increase in minimum bets on win, place, and show wagers for their upcoming season. $2 minimums are now $5 minimums, and I’m not crazy about it.

Yes, if 40% of $2 bettors become $5 bettors, it’s a wash, but at a time when handle is going down, not up, how confident are we that this will actually happen? Furthermore, I have a big issue with making family trips to the races less affordable. Parents have placed $2 show bets for their kids on every race since the beginning of the parimutuel industry. Assuming a 10-race card, this decision turned a $20-per-child cost into a $50-per-child cost. That’s a potential barrier to entry, and it rubs me the wrong way.

I sincerely hope I’m wrong about this (as a handicapper whose top picks lose seven out of 10 times in the best Saratoga seasons, this wouldn’t be unprecedented). The industry, as a whole, genuinely needs success stories. Having said that, there are enough potential red flags for me to be concerned.

WEDNESDAY’S RESULTS: Cancelled.

THURSDAY’S PLAY: I’ll head to the third, where I really like #5 PLAYING TRICKS dropping in class and cutting back in distance. I’ll keep it simple with a $30 win ticket on that one. As an additional note, remember that, with the Glens Falls moved to Sunday, all multi-race exotics sequences involving the eighth race have been cancelled.

TOTAL WAGERED: $30.

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SARATOGA SELECTIONS AND ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Playing Tricks, Race 3
Longshot: Smooth Authority, Race 2

R1

Suited Connectors
Into the Unknown
Gotta Gun Runner

#2 SUITED CONNECTORS (5/2): Didn’t break well in her debut, but showed some interest and rallied to pass more than half of a 12-horse field. She has every right to improve and grow at second asking, and she draws very well in this Thursday lid-lifter out of the Wilson chute; #3 INTO THE UNKNOWN (3-1): Has run second in back-to-back outings and has shown some tactical speed, which should help here. She’s beaten a few of these in the past and merits respect, though I’m not sure how much room to improve she has compared to some of her opponents; #5 GOTTA GUN RUNNER (5/2): Gets blinkers and Flavien Prat off of what’s easily her best performance to date. She was a competitive third after showing some interest downstate, and perhaps her connections learned something in that last-out effort.

R2

Fire Marshal
Smooth Authority
Honest Won

#6 FIRE MARSHAL (2-1): Has an experience edge over every other runner in the body of this field, as he showed some speed against open company downstate. He comes in to face New York-breds here for a barn whose runners tend to improve with experience; #8 SMOOTH AUTHORITY (10-1): Is interesting at his likely price. Just a $1,000 weanling purchase, he boasts a strong two-back work on the grass and has a right to be precocious. His dam was a first-out winner, and that one’s full sister, Hannah Dances, won her debut as well before placing in multiple stakes races; #2 HONEST WON (4-1): Debuts for a barn whose horses tend to need a race to get going. However, his works indicate he’s got potential, and dam One Wise Cowgirl previously threw Haveyougoneaway, the winner of the Grade 1 Ballerina several years ago.

R3

Playing Tricks
Bedard
Shattuck

#5 PLAYING TRICKS (2-1): Takes a major class drop and adds blinkers for this one, which serves as a cutback in distance. A mile may be a bit too far for him, and those last two efforts came against much, much better groups than the one he’ll line up against here; #2 BEDARD (9/5): Also drops and cuts back for aggressive connections, and it wouldn’t be surprising if he goes off the favorite. His two-back effort in the slop at Oaklawn was solid, although I’m not sure this elongated sprint is his best game; #4 SHATTUCK (8-1): Was part of a comeback for my bankroll section last year, when he rallied and romped at this route. He hasn’t run since December, but he’s protected from being claimed in this event, which I love to see, and he’s done some of his best work going seven panels.

R4

Collado Hueco
Preside
Hadrian’s Wall

#6 COLLADO HUECO (5/2): Lost all chance at the break in his debut, but he rallied to finish a close-up fourth beaten less than a length. This son of Into Mischief and top-class mare Dunbar Road stretches out to two turns, which he should relish, and a less-adventurous trip would make him tough; #5 PRESIDE (7/5): Took a step forward in the slop at second asking, when he was second going two turns at Churchill. On paper, this is a very similar spot, and Irad Ortiz, Jr., lands here when he may have had a few options; #1 HADRIAN’S WALL (3-1): Has burned money in his last two, though he did have an excuse last time when he broke last and was left with far too much to do. He could easily improve, though a repeat of his slow break last time out would be a problem given the rail draw.

R5

Sturdy (MTO)
Right to Win
Classic Creation

#4 RIGHT TO WIN (6-1): Ran like a horse that needed a race last time out at Ellis, which is understandable since that was his first start since October. He takes a drop in class second off the bench, and his lone prior start here was part of a stretch where he won three times in four outings; #8 CLASSIC CREATION (5-1): Hasn’t won in a long, long time, but he had an excuse against higher-level competition earlier this month. He was very wide that day in a very fast race for the level, and perhaps a drop into these waters will wake him up; #2 FORTUNE SELLER (7/2): Ships in for Kevin Rice and gets Jose Ortiz, which automatically makes him live. He never had a chance here two back, when the frontrunner got loose and didn’t stop, and I’m expecting a better effort in this spot (assuming we stay on turf, which is no certainty given the weather).

R6

Factually Correct
Run Classic
Pair of Socks

#5 FACTUALLY CORRECT (9/2): Would move forward considerably on a wet track, as he boasts three wins in six starts over off going. The rider switch to top gate rider Kendrick Carmouche is notable given his early speed, and I think he’s a legitimate wire-to-wire candidate; #2 RUN CLASSIC (9/5): Hasn’t found the winner’s circle since February of 2024 but takes a drop first off the claim for Joe Sharp, who knows how to move horses forward. His efforts at Oaklawn earlier this year were solid, and if there’s a pace meltdown, he’d stand to benefit; #3 PAIR OF SOCKS (2-1): Runs for a tag for the first time since September and hasn’t finished worse than third in his last seven starts. He’s run well against some solid allowance horses, so while this is a tough race for the level, he shouldn’t be out of his element.

R7

Princess Ny
Accelerated News
Majestic Return

#5 PRINCESS NY (5/2): Hits me as the speed of the speed in this one, and it doesn’t hurt that she’s run her best races over wet tracks. She may see one of those here, and if she’s able to dictate terms from the jump, she may prove tough to run down; #1 ACCELERATED NEWS (9/2): Hasn’t run since a failed turf experiment in November, and perhaps she needs a race. However, she’s been working well ahead of her return, and she’s proven she can pass others, which could come in handy depending on how fast they go out of the gate; #8 MAJESTIC RETURN (5-1): Goes first off a trainer switch for a barn that connects at a high clip with new acquisitions. There are some stamina concerns here, but she comes in off of a bullet drill at Finger Lakes and gets the aggressive Ricardo Santana, Jr., in the irons.

R8

Bernietakescharge (MTO)
Gezora
Survie

#4 GEZORA (2-1): Put forth a puzzling no-show in the Grade 1 New York, but I’m willing to give her a pass. It was her first start after a highly-publicized trainer switch, and perhaps Bill Mott didn’t have a chance to get to know her. Her best race buries the field in the Grade 2 Glens Falls, and perhaps we’ll get a bettable price given the last-out clunker; #1 SURVIE (4-1): Makes her U.S. debut and is no stranger to high-level competition. She was third in a Group 1 earlier this year, and she wasn’t far behind Gezora in another Group 1 last year in France; #5 SPEED SHOPPER (5-1): Also didn’t show up in the New York, but won three of four starts before that and is proven at this 12-furlong distance. The rider switch to Irad Ortiz, Jr., is a big one, and a return to form would absolutely make her a contender.

R9

Seeker’s Hope (MTO)
Tamino
Diliello

#3 TAMINO (4-1): Didn’t run well in the slop against allowance foes last time out and goes back to what’s probably the right level. He ran well on turf twice earlier in his career, and if he’s able to get back on grass here (which is no cinch as of this writing), he’s got a big shot in the Thursday nightcap; #8 DILIELLO (6-1): Goes third off the bench and runs for a tag for the first time. He’s a closer that may need a lot to go right, but these are shallower waters and perhaps he’s found his friends; #10 HEARTILY (8-1): Is a puzzling class-dropper and is slated to try turf for the first time. He flashed talent earlier in his career, when he wired a field of maidens at Keeneland and was less than 2-1 in a stakes race. If he can still run, he could be good enough.

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,212.63

I offered some advice to any young people reading this section on Sunday, and I’ll do it again here: Remember who’s nice and kind to you when you’re starting your professional career, and appreciate it immensely because not everybody will be.

For many years, Sybille Cowan was the first face anyone saw when entering the Siena University athletic offices. This included the two years I worked there, from 2010 to 2012, and I can attest that everyone, to a person, loved her. The hours are long in that field, but she helped cultivate as welcoming an environment as she could, and when the day was over, she’d often be seen cheering the Saints on at venues around the Capital District.

Sybille passed away earlier this month. She lived a long, full life and touched a lot of people, and my heart goes out to her family, friends, and loved ones (including, of course, the Siena community).

SUNDAY’S RESULTS: I can’t complain with the effort we got from Majestic Moonlight in the sixth, but she could only manage a close-up second. I dropped $26.

WEDNESDAY’S PLAY: For what may be the first time in the history of this section, I’ll lean on a race involving the Wilson chute. I really like #1 NOBLE GLOW in the opener, and I’ll bet accordingly. She’s the subject of a $20 win bet, as well as $3 exactas using her above and below #3 MARIA LOUISE and #5 WEDELIA. In addition, I’ll play $4 doubles starting in the opener that single Noble Glow and finish with #3 DRAFT RIOTS and #4 ABRIGADO in the second.

TOTAL WAGERED: $40.

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SARATOGA SELECTIONS AND ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Noble Glow, Race 1
Longshot: Jarndyce, Race 5

R1

Noble Glow
Wedelia
Maria Louise

#1 NOBLE GLOW (5-1): Showed speed in her debut late last year at Churchill before going to the sidelines. She’s been working steadily (and well) for Chad Brown ahead of her return in the Wednesday lid-lifter, and she sure seems like the main speed. Given the inside draw, the first-time Lasix, and the presence of Flavien Prat, I think she’s very, very dangerous; #5 WEDELIA (7/5): Has run fairly well in two tries to date, most recently finishing second going two turns in the slop at Churchill. She’s yet to see a fast dirt track, so her best may still be in front of her, but the draw towards the outside at this route could present an obstacle; #3 MARIA LOUISE (9/5): Is bred to be a good one and sold accordingly, hammering for $850,000 back in 2024. This daughter of Gun Runner and three-time Grade 1 winner Stopchargingmaria comes in off of a few sharp gate works for Todd Pletcher, but this is a tough route to debut at.

R2

Abrigado
Draft Riots
Camino

#4 ABRIGADO (1-1): Takes a huge class drop to the bottom of the class ladder for ultra-aggressive connections not afraid to lose horses via the claim box. He’s shown speed in all three outings to date, and the addition of blinkers means he’ll likely be dictating terms from the jump; #3 DRAFT RIOTS (5/2): Is another going way down in class and adding blinkers. A turf experiment last time out didn’t work, but he’s another that should be forward early on, and in a race without many who can pass others late, that matters; #2 CAMINO (12-1): Merits a look underneath at a price. He’s run fairly well against decent groups for the level at Oaklawn Park, and if the top two go very fast early on and can’t sustain themselves late, this is the one that could benefit.

R3

Sharons Beach
Ramajay
Mr. Hooligan

#6 SHARONS BEACH (8/5): Was second in a swiftly-run race in Indiana last time out and is one of a few contenders today for trainer Jonathan Thomas. Like many in here, he’s got early speed, but unlike a few others, he’s shown an ability to run well without needing the lead, which is a significant tactical edge; #7 RAMAJAY (5/2): Did everything right last time out at Gulfstream and took advantage of a perfect trip with a sharp score. On speed figures, he makes sense, and the workouts are sharp, but this barn has been cold to this point in the season, and that raises some questions; #1 MR. HOOLIGAN (8-1): Has shown a lot of gate speed and has the zip to make the rail draw an asset. Jose Ortiz rides for the Rice family, and of the “need the lead” runners, this is the one I’m most interested in.

R4

Music in Motion (MTO)
True Legend
Daisy Doo

#6 TRUE LEGEND (3-1): Hasn’t run since December, but that was a try in a $500,000 stakes race on dirt. His three prior efforts, all on turf, weren’t bad, and the two-back bullet drill jumps off the page. If he’s ready to go like I think he is, he hits me as the one to beat; #3 DAISY DOO (6-1): Is one of only a couple of closers in here, and that figures to work to his advantage in the third start of his campaign. The much-the-best winner didn’t come back to the field last time out, and I think he gets a more friendly setup here at a bit of a price; #7 HOT OFF THE BEACH (4-1): Debuted with an OK second downstate in May and has been off nearly three months. He goes up in class a bit to run against maiden special weight foes, but John Velazquez hops aboard and he can certainly move forward at second asking.

R5

San Antonio Sara (MTO)
Force of Mischief
Jarndyce

#2 FORCE OF MISCHIEF (7/2): Runs for a tag for the first time and may have been compromised by a wide trip last time out. Blinkers go on, and she gets a more friendly inside draw here against a group that doesn’t seem as fast. For a few reasons, she’s very logical; #1 JARNDYCE (12-1): Debuts for a small barn we haven’t seen in upstate New York, but there’s reason for optimism. She’s a full sister to a three-time winner named Hall Monitor, and that one has turned into a pretty nice turf marathoner. I don’t know what to expect first time out, but to be fair, I don’t think she has to be a monster to make an impact here; #10 LUCIANA’S HONOR (20-1): Doesn’t draw well here, but she goes back to the turf, and her debut over this surface last year wasn’t awful. She was fifth behind a few next-out winners that day, and she showed some speed and grit last time out going a mile on dirt at Aqueduct.

R6

Chief Wallabee
Blackout Time
Gulfy

#4 CHIEF WALLABEE (4/5): Was fourth in two legs of the Triple Crown and gets significant class relief in the Curlin (which, as usual, has pulled a few potential runners out of this weekend’s Jim Dandy, and that seems like a scheduling mistake). His best effort is very, very good, and I think he’ll appreciate not having to knock heads with the likes of Golden Tempo; #1 BLACKOUT TIME (3-1): Took advantage of first-level allowance company last time out and waltzed home clear by six lengths. Lasix may have moved him forward, but he did show some potential last season, when he was second behind Ted Noffey at Keeneland, and perhaps he’s just maturing midway into his 3-year-old season; #2 GULFY (12-1): May not want two turns, but he sure looks like the lone early speed. He tired to run fourth in the Grade 3 Peter Pan, but he may be able to sit an easier trip in this spot. If he does, he could hang on for a piece of it at a price.

R7

Pronghorn (MTO)
Time to Dream
Unreasonable

#3 TIME TO DREAM (3-1): Has been running against stakes company for the past year and drops into the optional claiming ranks, which means she gets Lasix for the first time. It feels like she’s plateaued a bit of late, but between the equipment change and the drop in class, this seems to be an ideal spot for her to wake up; #8 UNREASONABLE (5-1): Is one of two Miguel Clement trainees in here and ran well when second in a similar spot in mid-June at Aqueduct. Her lone stateside win came here last summer against what turned out to be a pretty solid group, and I don’t think she’s illogical here; #5 SERENDIPITY (5/2): Will certainly be involved from the jump here, and she’s done very little wrong to date. She has two wins and two seconds in four starts and could improve here. The question is, can she strut her stuff if she’s challenged going into the first turn? There are several others in here that want to be forward, and that could make things difficult for the favorite on the morning line.

R8

Chris’s Song (MTO)
Beau Cheval
Rossbeigh

#7 BEAU CHEVAL (8-1): Goes first off the claim for Joe Sharp in the nightcap and may provide some value. He may have moved a bit early last time out, when he finished third in a similar spot on closing day at Aqueduct. With the barn switch and the arrival of Jose Ortiz, I think he could be sitting on a career-best effort; #5 ROSSBEIGH (7/2): Has disappointed as a heavy favorite in back-to-back outings, but he does more than fit on speed figures and he wouldn’t be surprising. His effort two back at this route was solid, though not spectacular, and at least he shouldn’t be the 1/2 he was last time out; #4 CLASSIC COMMANDER (4-1): Didn’t break well last time but still rallied to be beaten less than two lengths. He does have a history of finding trouble, which makes him tough to endorse at a short price, but his two-back effort downstate was a good one and the switch to John Velazquez could be what he needs.