Saratoga Race Course Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll: 7/22/17

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $980

Not many brilliant 2-year-olds win Grade 1 races as 5-year-olds. Lady Eli has done that, all after overcoming laminitis. She headlines a renewal of the Grade 1 Diana that’s short on quantity, but not on quality. It’s also drawn fellow Grade 1 winners Antonoe and Dickinson, among others, and if Lady Eli continues conquering such fields this summer and fall, it may be time to start discussing her Hall of Fame credentials.

FRIDAY’S RESULTS: Victory to Victory faded and Dream Dancing never fired, so our doubles fizzled out and we dropped $20.

SATURDAY’S PLAY: I’ve got much more confidence in the early part of today’s card than in the later races, so I’ll play a 50-cent early Pick Four (contingent on turf races staying there). I’ll use #1 DADDY’S HOME and #9 MINISTER’S STRIKE in the second, single #5 UNTAMED DOMAIN in the third, press the “ALL” button in the fourth, and finish with #3 TAP DADDY, #4 SPORTING CHANCE, and #8 MACHISMO in the fifth.

TOTAL WAGERED: $21

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Untamed Domain, Race #3
Longshot: End Play, Race #7

R1

Marshall Plan
Mr. Crow
Adulation

MARSHALL PLAN: Has run two sharp races behind stakes-quality 3-year-olds and may have found a softer spot here. The horse to his inside has potential, but based on his body of work, this one’s the one to beat; MR. CROW: Was a close-up second in his debut, where he outran his 11-1 odds and was credited with a solid 89 Beyer Speed Figure. The July 8th bullet seems to indicate he’s continued to develop since that performance; ADULATION: Has been away since November but ran against several stakes-quality horses as a 2-year-old. He may need a race, but he fits based on last season’s form.

R2

Sheep Pond entry
Minister’s Strike
Prize Fight

DADDY’S HOME: Was an impressive debut winner two back, but misfired against much better last month downstate. A return to two turns should help him, and these waters aren’t nearly as deep; MINISTER’S STRIKE: Has spent his entire season to date in stakes company and takes a much-needed class drop here. Both of his wins have come going two turns on turf; PRIZE FIGHT: Lost all chance last out and was in too deep two back in the Grade 2 Penn Mile. His form from earlier this season in Florida would be good enough for a piece of this. DIRT SELECTIONS: CURTIS, ESCAPE VELOCITY, HONOR THY FATHER.

R3

Untamed Domain
Pete Marwick
Another

UNTAMED DOMAIN: Is bred up and down to go long on turf, and he had plenty of traffic trouble in his debut. He came flying late that day, and the addition of Lasix is a major plus; PETE MARWICK: Has three starts of experience and tries turf for the first time. His pedigree says he could take to it, and he nearly graduated two back downstate; ANOTHER: May need a race, but has the pedigree to be a good one. His dam is a half-sister of Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner I’ll Have Another, and the July 4th work on the Oklahoma track was very sharp. DIRT SELECTIONS: PETE MARWICK, PLETCHER ENTRY, HONORABLE TREASURE.

R4

Voluntario
Shuffle Up
Alex the Terror

VOLUNTARIO: Was outclassed two back in the Grade 3 General George and likely needed his last race, which came off a substantial layoff. He drops in for a tag and seems well-meant in a race that, to this writer, was a mess to handicap; SHUFFLE UP: Won two in a row by daylight at Aqueduct before misfiring last out at Belmont. He’s got plenty of early zip and could be tough to catch if left alone early on; ALEX THE TERROR: Disappointed first off the claim, but ran a strong race at seven furlongs three back against much better. This is another who may be helped by the drop in class he gets in this spot.

R5

Machismo
Tap Daddy
Sporting Chance

MACHISMO: Fetched $500k at auction last year and has been working like a very good horse ahead of his debut. This isn’t an easy spot, but if this one runs to his potential, he could be a buzz horse moving forward; TAP DADDY: Hails from a barn that doesn’t usually work horses quickly, which makes several of his drills very interesting. He’s bred to go much longer than this, but all indications are that there’s plenty of talent here; SPORTING CHANCE: Did very little wrong when second in his debut last month at Churchill Downs. He was well clear of the third-place finisher, but that field may have been weaker than what he faces here.

R6

Born for a Storm
Gucci Factor
Fleet Irish

BORN FOR A STORM: Comes off a nine-month layoff, but ran two very strong races here last year. He’s been working well here ahead of his 4-year-old debut, and Brown and Castellano have won plenty of races together; GUCCI FACTOR: Ran off the screen in his seasonal debut last month at Belmont, winning by 16 lengths and appearing to have more in reserve. This is a much tougher spot, but he may have figured things out in a big way; FLEET IRISH: Hasn’t won since his debut last November, but this distance hits him between the eyes, and he’d benefit from an early speed duel, which could happen given the huge field signed on.

R7

Still Krz (MTO)
End Play
Partly Mocha

END PLAY: Comes in off a win downstate and is ridden back by Luis Saez, who’s been aboard for all three of his career victories. He ran well here twice a season ago, and 8-1 is a square price for a horse that appears to be in peak form; PARTLY MOCHA: Has been running against some of the top turf sprinters in the country and should certainly appreciate the shallower waters this race provides. The post position isn’t ideal, but he should be running well late; EVACUATION: Was thought of highly enough by his previous connections that they tried Group 1 company down under last year. He makes his North American debut for Wesley Ward and has attracted jockey John Velazquez. DIRT SELECTIONS: STILL KRZ, BOLITA BOYZ, LUNA DE LOCO.

R8

Annie Rocks (MTO)
Gioia Stella
Pricedtoperfection

GIOIA STELLA: Assuredly needed her 2017 debut after the layoff and wasn’t helped by that race being moved off the turf. Her two-turn turf efforts are among the best races of her career, and she gets such a route here; PRICEDTOPERFECTION: Makes her first start for a new barn and will be seen in the afternoon for the first time since September. Her back class is considerable, and she’ll be a major player if she’s ready to run; STELLA ROSE: Was third in a high-level allowance in her 2017 bow and won here a season ago. She’s run up against some high-quality horses, and this is a logical spot. DIRT SELECTIONS: ANNIE ROCKS, JOSEPHINE’S MOMENT, BROWSE.

R9

Direct Dial
Admiral Jimmy
Baffin

DIRECT DIAL: Did the dirty work in the Tremont, setting very fast fractions. He still hung on for second money that day, and he figures to be the main speed in a renewal of the historic Sanford; ADMIRAL JIMMY: Was nosed by my top selection in the Tremont and showed an ability to rate off the pace in that performance. He’d benefit from a fast pace, which could materialize; BAFFIN: Was never threatened in a sharp debut victory at Churchill Downs. It’s curious that Steve Asmussen (Direct Dial’s trainer) also enters this one here when there are ample 2-year-old races around the country.

R10

Lady Eli
Antonoe
Dickinson

LADY ELI: Won a scorching renewal of the Grade 1 Gamely at Santa Anita in May and appears to be as sharp as ever. She’s aided here by what appears to be a lack of early speed, and it wouldn’t be surprising if she led early on; ANTONOE: Flew home to capture the Grade 1 Just A Game and improve to 2-for-2 in North America. This race shape may not set up as well for her, but she’s certainly talented enough to continue her winning ways; DICKINSON: Was herded in the Just A Game, but likely wasn’t beating Antonoe that day. She did, however, top Lady Eli on the square two back, and she’s another who could be forwardly-placed.

R11

Doyouknowsomething (MTO)
Souperfast
Blarp

SOUPERFAST: Was impressive downstate in his last appearance and was claimed out of that race by David Jacobson. Many in this field may prefer one turns to this two-turn route, but he’s shown to be equally effective at either configuration; BLARP: Had a world of trouble when last seen and returns to a turf course he’s won on in the past. He has ample back class and should improve with a better trip; MILLS: Was third behind my top pick in his last outing and has since joined the Rudy Rodriguez barn. He’s one of the best on the circuit with new acquisitions, so improvement wouldn’t be a surprise. DIRT SELECTIONS: DOYOUKNOWSOMETHING, CARVE, MILLS.

Saratoga Race Course Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll: 7/21/17

(NOTE: Most days, the bankroll section will be edited in after my picks are posted, as it must wait until the races in question are run the previous day. This doesn’t apply for opening day, obviously, and it won’t apply for Wednesdays either, since Tuesday is the dark day.)

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,000

It’s great to be back! For those who missed this segment when it debuted last summer, I’ll be making bets in this space all summer long, hopefully growing my starting bankroll as the meet rolls on (NOTE: All wagers on turf races are contingent on those races staying there).

Additionally, the kind folks at The Saratogian have given me some space to expound with some thoughts, and that’s where you come in. Got a question, comment, or rant? Tweet me at @AndrewChampagne, and I may answer it in print. Some ground rules: No politics, and no potshots. Breaking these rules could get you mocked and/or ridiculed. You’ve been warned.

FRIDAY’S PLAY: I’ll wait until the final two races of the day and play $10 doubles. Mark Casse holds a strong hand in the ninth (the Lake George), and both of his entrants are reasonable prices on the morning line. I’ll use #10 VICTORY TO VICTORY and #11 DREAM DANCING there and single Chad Brown class-dropper #8 SWEET CONNIE GIRL in the 10th and final.

TOTAL WAGERED: $20

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Sweet Connie Girl, Race #10
Longshot: Victory to Victory, Race #9

R1

Indycott
Rich Daddy
Marriage Fever

INDYCOTT: Was second in the slop against slightly better last time out downstate. He’s won twice here, including a race at this level and route last summer, and he should sit a dream trip just off the speed; RICH DADDY: Is a 10-time winner with 30 in-the-money finishes in 45 career starts. He’s relished the class drop he took earlier in the year and would benefit from a pace meltdown; MARRIAGE FEVER: Has run some of his best races around two turns and could relish a return to such a route today. He could hold on for a share at a bit of a price.

R2

Trouble for Skylar (MTO)
Scatback
Misty Forest

SCATBACK: Is by strong turf sire Scat Daddy and seems to have found a fairly soft spot for her unveiling. She’s a half to three winners, and her dam is a half to Grade 3 winner Z Humor; MISTY FOREST: Fetched $67k at auction last year and has a few workouts downstate that hint at some talent. Trainer John Kimmel can pop at a price with 2-year-olds; BEAUX ARTS: Was second at a big price in her debut at Monmouth Park and tries turf here. Sire Freud can throw turf runners, but the cold barn is a concern. DIRT SELECTIONS: TROUBLE FOR SKYLAR, BEAUX ARTS, SCATBACK.

R3

Point Hope
Offlee Brawn
Planet Trailblazer

POINT HOPE: Took a big step forward in his first start for Robertino Diodoro, romping against a weaker group. Regression is logical, but his record looks considerably better if you toss the inner track and turf races, so it’s not like his last effort is totally out of place; OFFLEE BRAWN: Is the main speed in this race on paper and routed lesser company at Monmouth when last seen. Paco Lopez and Kelly Breen do great work together, and he could be tough to run down if he shakes loose early; PLANET TRAILBLAZER: Has never missed the board in six dirt starts and was third behind a next-out winner last month downstate. The lack of a win since the debut is discouraging, but he can’t be ignored in exotics wagers.

R4

Patternrecognition
Reason to Soar
Via Egnatia

PATTERNRECOGNITION: Chased possible Amsterdam favorite Coal Front last out after winning his debut in April at Aqueduct. He’s worked very well since then and looms large for powerhouse connections; REASON TO SOAR: Didn’t take to the turf downstate but ran several strong races against restricted stakes company earlier in the season. He’d benefit from a fast early pace, which could happen given the speed signed on; VIA EGNATIA: Makes his U.S. debut for Bill Mott and gets Lasix for the first time. He’s a half to sire First Defence, the dam is a half to Belmont winner Empire Maker, and the workouts indicate he could be well-meant.

R5

Amazing Belle
Honey Glow
Sunny’s Funny

AMAZING BELLE: Has run two strong races in as many career outings. She’s a half to Grade 1 winner Unrivaled Belle, the dam of Unique Bella, and experience counts; HONEY GLOW: Is a regally-bred Todd Pletcher trainee who could win on debut. The worktab is solid, but the pedigree suggests she may want to go longer, and I doubt we’ll get the 7/2 morning line odds; SUNNY’S FUNNY: Was a decent third on debut at Churchill Downs for a trainer whose horses sometimes need a race or two to get going. Improvement is logical at second asking.

R6

Itsinthestars
Swayed
Buffalo Miss

ITSINTHESTARS: Ran a clunker last time going long, but cuts back to a distance that should be more to her liking. There’s a ton of early speed here on paper, and she should be rolling late; SWAYED: Is another coming in off a dull effort, but she likely needed the race off a long layoff. She gets Lasix for the first time and is another who would benefit from rating off a hot pace; BUFFALO MISS: Romped at this route last summer. Her best race could win this, but John Terranova isn’t great off of this type of layoff, and she figures to have company up front early on. DIRT SELECTIONS: INGRID, SWAYED, MO PROMISE.

R7

Brown entry
Highland Sky
Messi

BLACK SEA: Likely needed his North American debut, which came going shorter than his preferred distance. He’s been gelded since that effort, and anything close to his 2016 form would make him a major player; HIGHLAND SKY: Has had the misfortune of being a stone closer in a paceless race twice this year. He’ll be formidable if he gets a setup in front of him, but the fear of another dawdling pace means I can’t endorse him on top; MESSI: Was third in the Grade 3 Fort Marcy two back before running a distant ninth in the Grade 1 United Nations. He may be a hair past his peak, but he wouldn’t be a shock in what’s turned out to be an incredibly tough optional claimer. DIRT SELECTIONS: SPLASHTASTIC, RED RIFLE, BACKSIDEOFTHEMOON.

R8

Snowfire
Buy Sell Hold
Stainless

SNOWFIRE: Has something the rest of this field doesn’t, which is a win at today’s six-furlong distance. She drew away powerfully that day and turned in a strong local workout on July 14th that could bode well for today’s co-feature; BUY SELL HOLD: Prevailed against boys in stakes company last time out at Churchill Downs and is a logical favorite. She turned in a bullet three works back and showed an ability to rate in the aforementioned win; STAINLESS: Was an easy winner on debut at Gulfstream, and the runner-up came back to win at next asking. Trainer Todd Pletcher swept the local graded stakes for 2-year-old fillies last year, and this one could continue the winning streak.

R9

Victory to Victory
Dream Dancing
Sweeping Paddy

VICTORY TO VICTORY: Is one of two Mark Casse trainees in the field and should love the two-turn route and race shape she should see here. She figures to be the main speed, she shouldn’t have to go as fast early on as she did two back against similar, and we may get a bit of a price; DREAM DANCING: May have bounced last time out after a very strong second two back to La Coronel, who’d probably be favored here. She should appreciate the return to a two-turn route, and she may be talented enough to overcome the bad post; SWEEPING PADDY: Broke through in a big way last out when taking the Grade 3 Regret. A repeat would put her right there, but that was a substantial jump from her prior form, meaning a regression could be coming here.

R10

Sweet Connie Girl
Submit
Joyful Joyful

SWEET CONNIE GIRL: Drops in for a tag for the first time after a pair of evenly-run races at Monmouth. This doesn’t seem to be the toughest field for the level, though, and the addition of Javier Castellano is a big plus; SUBMIT: Ran an OK fourth at this level downstate when returning from a long layoff. Jose Ortiz hops aboard, and she should be running well late; JOYFUL JOYFUL: Merits a look at a big price. She has some races from 2016 that would make her competitive in this spot, and she didn’t embarrass herself when third last out at Monmouth in her first start for a solid barn. DIRT SELECTIONS: PINCHPENNY, GRAND BANKS, MIZZENCAT.

Del Mar Opening Day Analysis, Selections, and Tickets: 7/19/17

Wednesday is opening day at Del Mar. The card is a good one, and it features something that’s been lacking in California of late: Full fields. Connections have saved plenty of bullets for California’s flagship summer meet, and while you can debate the merits of that (yes, this card is great, but I’m sure Santa Anita wishes they didn’t have to cancel days of racing due to low entries!), there’s no doubt that there are plenty of wagering opportunities coming up where the turf meets the surf.

I’ll go race-by-race and give my thoughts. If you’re interested in my Pick Five and Pick Four tickets, they’re at the end of this article (remember, Del Mar does not do an early Pick Four, just one at the end of the card). Let’s get started!

RACE #1: It won’t take long for me to go against a morning line favorite, because I do not like Getoffmyback in the opener. Astute readers may remember that beating Getoffmyback two weeks ago at this level at Santa Anita resulted in me scoring with a $393 Pick Five, and that field may have been worse than what he faces here. He stretches out, but has never hit the board in four starts going long.

I’m keying the horses surrounding him in the starting gate. Our Nation helped set a solid pace three back in his lone route race (which came against better horses), and he still hung on to finish a clear second that day. The class drop should help, and Flavien Prat staying on despite the misfire last time out is a good sign. Additionally, Papa Royale is a “lightbulb” play based off of a strong maiden win at Los Alamitos. He didn’t beat much, but his career record looks considerably better if you toss out the turf races he’s run, and this is a horse that could be figuring things out.

RACE #2: My first strong selection of the day comes here. We won’t get much of a price on Pedro Cerrano, who breaks from the rail for trainer Peter Miller, but there’s a lot to like. Yes, he comes in off a long layoff, but he’s been training very well at San Luis Rey, and because of the layoff, he’s protected in this $20,000 claimer. That’s usually a sign that a horse is doing very well, and given his 2-for-2 record at Del Mar, I think there’s reason to believe a big effort is in the offing. I’m singling Pedro Cerrano in all multi-race exotic wagers, and 2-1 may be a fair price if he runs back to his two local performances from last year.

RACE #3: This is a tricky allowance race featuring many horses with aversions to winning. Over Par likely would’ve been favored despite a 1-for-17 career mark, but he scratched Wednesday morning. If you want to spend some extra money and buy this race in multi-leg wagers, I won’t stop you.

I’ll hope that going two-deep gives me enough coverage. Accountability set a scorching past last time out at Santa Anita, and he should sit a much easier trip in this spot given the relative lack of early speed signed on alongside him. Additionally, Alsatian was a strong second in a $201,000 stakes race two back and has more tactical speed than he showed in his last effort. Hopefully, going three-deep will get me through this race.

RACE #4: The morning line man thinks this is a two-horse race between 9/5 favorite Classy Tune and 2-1 first-time starter Pretty Owl, who represents the Bob Baffert barn. I’m using both, but there are two others I’ll throw in at prices.

It’s great to see Tom Proctor back on the west coast, and he’ll saddle Slim Fit, who ran a strong second in her debut last month at Delaware Park. She dueled through fast fractions over what’s usually a slow track, and if she improves off of that effort (as Proctor-trained second-time starters often do), she’ll be one to respect in here.

I’m also going to use 10-1 shot Literary Critic, a first-time starter trained by Clifford Sise. This one is bred to be a runner. She’s by City Zip and out of a mare named Ain’t She Sweet. Ain’t She Sweet is by Storm Cat, which makes her a full sister to both 2009 Breeders’ Cup Ladies’ Classic winner Life Is Sweet and 2004 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies winner Sweet Catomine. Literary Critic boasts a solid, consistent worktab, and Sise has a sneaky record of late with debuting runners, so I think this one merits inclusion on your tickets.

RACE #5: The first 2-year-old maiden race of the meet is here, and it’s a doozy. Of the 11 horses (including one also-eligible) that are signed on to run, eight will debut in this spot. Morning line favorite Tyfosha chased a next-out stakes winner in her debut and looms large, but I don’t think she’s a cinch.

Bob Baffert, as usual, boasts a flashy first-time starter in the form of Just a Smidge, who’s been working well at Santa Anita. What’s interesting, though, is that Richard Mandella may have a precocious runner of his own in here. That’s Varanasi, a daughter of Jimmy Creed who fetched $385,000 at auction last September. The June 27th workout hints at major talent, and while Mandella’s horses usually get much better with age, anything close to that workout would make her a formidable foe on debut.

I also included Broome, who draws the rail but could have enough talent to overcome what can be a problematic post position for debuting runners. On paper, the pedigree (by Bellamy Road, out of a Closing Argument mare) doesn’t seem like much, but she hammered for a respectable $80,000 earlier this year and has worked pretty well for Peter Miller, whose barn is firing on all cylinders. A closer look at the pedigree reveals that her dam won a small stakes race as a 2-year-old, and she’s thrown a stakes-placed runner already (a filly named Katniss The Victor). If you’re playing a more budget-conscious ticket than the $48 one I have below, maybe you can stomach leaving her off, but I wanted her on it, as she’ll be a price and could possess considerable talent.

RACE #6: I’m very happy this race was the one between the Pick Five and Pick Four, because I was baffled by it when I looked at the form. This is a stakes-quality allowance race, and I could make a case for a number of runners in here.

Moonless Sky has been very impressive since switching to the Eddie Truman barn. She’s won four in a row, including a stakes race against state-breds. She tackles a stakes-quality field here, but she’s got more tactical speed than she showed last time, and 6-1 seems like a very square price on a horse that’s in career form.

The other horse that intrigues me is Family Meeting. Family Meeting is a multiple stakes-winner who had a horrible pace setup last time out at Gulfstream, yet was beaten less than a length. I also liked Frenzified a bit before she scratched.

RACE #7: The Pick Four starts here, and I think most of the talent lines up towards the outside. The two likely favorites (Gato Del Oro and Absolutely Stylish) come in off of maiden wins, and while I’m using both and either could win, I’m by no means married to either of them here.

Giant Expectations took a step forward in two starts at Belmont Park against New York-breds, and Magical Mystery could come flying late to overcome a bad post. I’ll use them both, but I’ll also throw in 12-1 shot Saint Dermot, a pace-dependent closer who could get a dream setup. There’s a lot of early speed on paper, and it could set up for a clunk-up closer to pick up the pieces late. Because of the possibility of that scenario unfolding, I want this longshot on my ticket.

Additional note: Tribal Jewel is on the AE list and needs two scratches to draw in. If one of the above horses scratches and he gets in the field, I’m substituting him in. The likely shape of the race is a concern, but he’s a consistent horse who hasn’t finished off the board in more than a year and won here three times last summer and fall.

RACE #8: This is the traditional opening day feature, the Oceanside Stakes. A full field of 14 3-year-olds will go a mile on the grass, and while a big field like this is usually not a spot to single in, I LOVE the lukewarm morning line favorite.

That’s Bowies Hero, who was last seen running fourth behind eventual Belmont Derby winner Oscar Performance in the Pennine Ridge. The race shape wasn’t kind to this closer that day, and he’s shown what he can do when he gets a pace to run at. He’s a two-time stakes winner that’s been running against much, much better horses, and there should be plenty of pace in front of him in this spot. I like him a lot in this spot, and if we get any sort of a price on him, that’s great.

RACE #9: This is the second 2-year-old race of the day, and fillies will go five furlongs. Unlike the fifth, which features an abundance of first-time starters, this race has some horses we’ve seen before, and I’m using a handful of them.

Likely favorite Spiced Perfection ran a solid second on June 16th, while Smiling Tigress has shown zip in the mornings since a likely-needed unveiling and Streak of Luck was bet before enduring a horrible trip in her debut last month. It wouldn’t be a shock to see any of these horses step forward, but given that none have been overly impressive to this point, I also opted to include a first-time starter…and in this case, she’s a big price.

Tapitha Bonita is 20-1 on the morning line, and the stats of the connections don’t exactly make you scream with confidence. However, the worktab she possesses has some strong moves. Her July 5th move was fifth-fastest of 34, her June 30th drill was fourth-fastest of 35, and her June 17th workout was seventh-fastest of 73. While her pedigree doesn’t jump off the page, and the $6,000 purchase price in January is low, she’s the third foal from the mare to race. Both of her predecessors are full siblings, and both are winners. Given this information, and the quality of the opposition here, I’m happy to throw her onto the ticket, especially at that price.

RACE #10: We end with a puzzler. This is a $16,000 claimer, and a few of these horses make you wonder why they’re running in this spot. Belisarius, for instance, was fifth in last year’s Belmont Gold Cup going two miles on turf…and now, he’s showing up in a $16,000 claimer going a mile on dirt?

I settled on going four-deep. My top pick is Preacher Roe, who’s protected by trainer Mike Puype off a long layoff. Puype excels with such moves, and this gelding’s starts at this level and against similar company have been some of the best of his career.

I’ll reluctantly use 3-1 morning line favorite Private Prospect. I’m not sure he’s capable of such a performance, but his best race certainly wins this (he was third in two Grade 3 races back in 2015), and he’s a candidate for Del Mar’s “ship and win” program, which I’m sure is part of the reason he’s here. Additionally, Shackleford Banks has won five of 11 career dirt starts and would benefit from a pace meltdown (which isn’t out of the question), and 8-1 shot Accelerant is a juicy price given that one’s affinity for two-turn routes of ground. If he repeats the race two back, where he won by more than five lengths, he’s a major player.

– – – – –

$0.50 Pick Five: Race #1

R1: 4,6
R2: 1
R3: 5,6
R4: 2,3,6,8
R5: 1,3,6,8

64 Bets, $32

– – – – –

$0.50 Pick Four: Race #7

R7: 5,6,7,9,10 (12 in case any scratch and that one draws in)
R8: 4
R9: 4,6,8,9
R10: 3,4,7,9

80 Bets, $40

The First Ever Fantasy Horse Racing Simulcast Team Draft

A short brainstorm between myself and DRF compadre Joe Nevills resulted in what we felt was a genius idea: Take four degenerates working in horse racing, put them together, and have them draft their dream simulcast TV crew. Yes, we’re weird.

Having said that, we got two of our friends in on the game: Gulfstream Park track announcer Pete Aiello and TwinSpires/Brisnet grid connoisseur Ed DeRosa. Our basic ground rules were pretty simple. This would be contested in a “snake draft” format, where whoever picks first in odd-numbered rounds picks last in even-numbered rounds, and vice versa. Each roster consists of the following positions: Announcer, host, analyst, handicapper, field/paddock reporter, flex, and one bench spot. Finally, those drafting could not draft themselves, and were limited to drafting one current co-worker.

With that in mind, let’s get to the draft!

ROUND 1, PICK 1: JOE NEVILLS
PETE AIELLO, ANNOUNCER

Yeah, I picked someone else in the league. Maybe I’ll put him in a costume, hand him some flyers, and make him the highest-drafted mascot in league history. Do something about it.

Beyond those simple trolling pleasures, Pete is the kind of personality and multi-tool player you can build a program around. No announcer’s star has risen faster over the past half-decade, and he’s proven to be a versatile on-air talent, both in announcing and pre/between-race talking head segments. Plus, he has experience running myriad behind-the-scenes positions at the racetrack away from the camera, so his value only increases.

A relentless handicapper, Pete knows what he’s talking about when it comes to identifying horses to watch, and he more than has the ability to keep viewers hooked whether he’s picking a horse to win or calling it down the stretch. Plus, his sense of humor and quick thinking will ensure he gets a race call to go viral every so often, which raises the profile of my fictional racetrack, Son of Mount Pleasant Meadows. I want my track to be fun, and he’ll make sure of it.

Perhaps the biggest draw for drafting Pete in the #1 slot is that he’s still a high-upside prospect. He’s among the younger announcers calling at a major track, meaning you’re going to have him for a long time compared to some of the more experienced names out there, and he’s only going to keep improving with time. He’s a long-term pick that’s already perfectly suited for a “win-now” franchise, and I’m happy to have him on-board. Now, get in the damn bear suit and pass out those Lyft vouchers!!!

PA: I have to write ALL THAT?!

AC: “…and there we go with the antics.”

I’m not at all surprised with that pick. I figured Pete would go fairly early, and in fact he was one of the top guys on my Big Board That Totally Reeks of Awesomeness (BBTTROA for short). However, I’ve got a different strategy in mind, one that involves a big name, an even better guy…and, for my money, the best hair in the game.

ROUND 1, PICK 2: ANDREW CHAMPAGNE
LAFFIT PINCAY III, HOST

My background isn’t just in social media. I’ve been on both sides of the camera and behind a microphone, and I know that the toughest on-air job there is falls on the shoulders of the host. Hosts are traffic cops, weaving instructions from producers and directors (that are sometimes yelled quickly and filled with four-letter words) seamlessly with external obligations and the other pitfalls of live television. It takes someone with a ton of talent to do this in such a way that the show stays afloat.

Laffit’s one of the best in the world of horse racing at doing this. He’s composed, he knows both the subject matter and the world of television, and he’ll ensure that the long-suffering wives of those watching my simulcast feed don’t force their husbands to change the channel (thus ensuring we meet our handle goals). As long as we can afford the elixir that ensures Laffit’s hair stays perfect at all times, I think things will work swimmingly.

PA: What’s the metric here? “Getting over” with the racing public? Creating “must see TV?”

AC: It’s whatever you want it to be. Now get back in Joe’s bear suit that he may or may not have washed.

ROUND 1, PICK 3: ED DEROSA
SCOTT HAZELTON, HOST

AC: Most important question: Bow tie on or off?

ED: Bow tie off. He’s more than just a pretty face. He also asks Perry Martin the tough questions.

ROUND 1, PICK 4/ROUND 2, PICK 1: PETE AIELLO
MATT CAROTHERS, ANALYST
TRAVIS STONE, ANNOUNCER

Matt is a speed handicapper and a company line handicapper like me. He’s young enough to get some good longevity out of and is well known by the audience. He’s also a polarizing figure like myself, so I gravitate to that.

Travis is a pure value play. He can run any department at the track, do it well and could be selected in various capacities in this exercise. Age is an added bonus, and there’s zero downside here.

ROUND 2, PICK 2: ED DEROSA
NICK LUCK, ANALYST

There’s a heavy international emphasis on Team DeRosa so far, and why not given we’re in this thing to make money? US fans have showed a willingness to bet more on international racing at all hours.

AC: I am beyond ecstatic that my next pick is still available.

ROUND 2, PICK 3: ANDREW CHAMPAGNE
CATON BREDAR, FIELD/PADDOCK REPORTER

Nobody is better than Caton at eying horses in the paddock and figuring out when certain horses will outrun their odds. She’s also tremendous at interviewing trainers, especially those who don’t usually open up to the general public. If you’ve never seen Caton interview Mike Maker, you’ve never seen art. Some may think it’s a bit early in the draft to address this position, but I wanted to make sure I got the best in the business.

JN: First off, solid pick by Ed with Nick Luck. He’s a dynamite addition to any team in this group, and his stock is through the roof on both sides of the pond after the excellent Royal Ascot coverage.

ROUND 2, PICK 4/ROUND 3, PICK 1: JOE NEVILLS
CHRISTINA BLACKER, HOST
GARY WEST, FIELD/PADDOCK REPORTER

If this were strictly a draft of TVG talent, Christina would be my first one off the board without a second thought. She’s got background in both the equine and handicapping sides of the business, and does a great job delivering useful information to the audience while playing air traffic control with the rest of her crew. My team needs to be smart, loose, and conversational with a good sense of humor – more NFL on FOX than CNN – and Christina has shown over the years that she can hang with any variety of co-anchors. I need a talented jack of all trades in this spot, and Christina brings high stats into just about every area.

Also, she’s another pick on the younger end of the spectrum. This not only makes her one I’d hope to have on my team for a long time, but a team of younger people should help convince folks in their age bracket that the track’s not full of just middle-aged and old white guys.

Gary West is probably a reach in this spot, but ever since I first heard Gary during my first visit to Kentucky Downs, I’ve never been able to imagine a dream simulcast team without him on it. He just seems to look at the horses with a different skew from the typical paddock analyst, and is able to process that into something especially palatable and useful for handicappers. The guy not only knows what he’s talking about, but presents it in a way that you’re doing yourself a disservice not to listen to it.

Part of Gary’s appeal at Kentucky Downs is his back and forth with announcer John Lies, but I think Pete and Christina are more than capable replacements to get the best out of each other. I like my team with these three as key cogs.

AC: It’s time to fill the chair(s) next to Laffit, and my next pick is racing’s hottest free agent right now.

ROUND 3, PICK 2: ANDREW CHAMPAGNE
RICHARD MIGLIORE, ANALYST

Richard Migliore is a flat-out steal in the third round. He was a very good rider who fit in instantly on whatever TV broadcast he worked, and any list of racing’s greatest ambassadors has him on it. He provides audiences with handicapping acumen and a unique perspective that not many people have, and I desperately need him on my team.

ROUND 3, PICK 3: ED DEROSA
RACHEL MCLAUGHLIN, FLEX

Horse racing is meant to be fun, and Rachel brings minor league baseball fun to the Indiana Grand signal with promos for the live audience while also being able to discuss handicapping with the rest of the team for those watching in Simo-land. She can help promote all parts of the racing game.

ROUND 3, PICK 4/ROUND 4, PICK 1: PETE AIELLO
DAVE RODMAN, FLEX
GABBY GAUDET, HOST

In a surprise move, I’ll take another announcer, a veteran, a great guy, one of the best in the business, a guy with a great sense of humor, and a good friend. I’ll also take Gabby Gaudet, who takes her job very seriously. I need someone who does that.

ROUND 4, PICK 2: ED DEROSA
DOUG SALVATORE, HANDICAPPER

This is the type of guy that, when he makes a pick, people pay attention. He’s also a great writer both about the game and life in general. We share a lack of filter. He once wrote about his soapy sock. He’ll stir the pot, he’ll stew in it. He’ll do what it takes to make a buck.

AC: As I try to recover from the image caused by Ed’s comments about a soapy sock, one name sticks out, and it’s one I need to draft.

ROUND 4, PICK 3: ANDREW CHAMPAGNE
MILLIE BALL, FLEX

Much of this is about business. Millie is smart, experienced, talented, and fills many roles with her versatility (even if we need someone out there on horseback). However, I’ll always hold Millie in an even higher regard as a person for something I saw first-hand. I was at Santa Anita in one of my first weeks at HRTV when Points Offthebench, who was trained by Millie’s husband (Tim Yakteen), broke down during a routine workout ahead of the Breeders’ Cup Sprint. The horse was euthanized, and it would’ve been understandable if Millie had taken the morning off. However, she stayed at the track and did her shift, even though people watching could tell it had been a terrible morning. That takes a LOT of toughness, which is a quality I want on my staff.

PA: We’ve got an HRTV mark here!

ROUND 4, PICK 4/ROUND 5, PICK 1: JOE NEVILLS
DONNA BARTON-BROTHERS, FLEX
CHRIS MCCARRON, ANALYST

You can put Donna anywhere on the track, from the desk, to the paddock, to the back of a horse, to the top of the danged Churchill Downs big board and she’ll be an asset. She literally wrote the book on teaching new fans about the sport, but she has enough cred with the racing lifers that she can speak to them in their language and offer an experienced voice regarding the on-track product as a former jockey. A Swiss Army talent with a broad audience appeal? You’ve got a spot on my team any day.

I was thinking about making Donna my straight-up analyst until Andrew brought up the horseback element, and I realized she was capable of so much more.

I really struggled with finding the right person for the analyst spot. I wanted my analyst to fill a color commentator position on the desk, and I wanted someone who has been in the trenches. Someone who could comment on what goes on during a race with the experience of having a hand in the race, while also being a charismatic, likable figure. I wanted a Terry Bradshaw, or at least a Troy Aikman. In retrospect, I wish I would have picked Migliore when he was on the board and assumed my fandom for Gary West would have kept quiet until I could come back and grab him here. Mig is kind of the ideal guy for that spot in my eyes, and I’ve been told I can’t take Gary Stevens because he’s still an active rider. Drat.

AC: Sorry.

JN: Anyway, who better to be the voice of experience than the guy who founded an entire school to teach people about horse racing? McCarron has on-camera experience with ESPN and TVG, and anyone that’s had the pleasure of sitting down for a chat with him knows he’s a character who is never lacking for words. He’s ridden, and won, at the highest levels, has a personality and presence that demands your attention, has experience instructing others (which an analyst should always be doing to some degree even if it’s not talking to beginners), and has worked with the technical aspects of both film and television. Put him in a spot where he’s just talking to you and the hosts about the game, and he’s my sleeper pick of this whole thing. He’s probably not the most polished guy I could have picked in this spot, but I don’t necessarily want polished. I want people who are intelligent, engaging, and entertaining. Chris has that in spades.

AC: My team is polished, but it needs a jolt of youth and enthusiasm.

ROUND 5, PICK 2: ANDREW CHAMPAGNE
GINO BUCCOLA, HANDICAPPER

Gino’s got the work ethic and knowledge I want in my handicapper’s chair, along with the added benefit of having tons of passion for aspects of the game that go beyond what you see in the program. He’s not a “hot take” machine, but he’s never afraid to passionately defend a controversial point, and having someone who can go back and forth with the Mig from time to time is a major plus. Between his insight and the fit he figures to be alongside the rest of my crew, Gino’s a guy I need to have at this point in the draft.

ROUND 5, PICK 3: ED DEROSA
JASON BEEM, ANNOUNCER

My first three picks bring professionalism and gravitas. Salvatore and now Beem bring irreverence to take down ivory towers. Jason calls a clean race, has fun doing it, and interacts with the racing community.

ROUND 5, PICK 4/ROUND 6, PICK 1: PETE AIELLO
BRITNEY EURTON, FIELD/PADDOCK REPORTER
MARK PATTERSON, HANDICAPPER

With delight in my voice and lead in my pencil, I proudly select Britney Eurton as whatever you want to put her as.

AC: You need a field/paddock reporter, so I’m putting her there.

PA: You boys have allowed me to draft a dream team. Hopefully the league doesn’t institute salary caps though.

With that in mind, I will take Mark Patterson as my handicapper. He will likely work cheaper than many others, is goofier than a cat on helium, can work with anyone, and knows his stuff.

ROUND 6, PICK 2: ED DEROSA
MAGGIE WOLFENDALE, FIELD/PADDOCK REPORTER

When it comes to getting people to make action plays, nothing is more actionable than what’s seen in the paddock, and it’s really the last frontier of prices.

With an international flavor to my team, there’s also value to someone who can evaluate horseflesh on the fly. Yeah, NYRA is her strength, but what she does can be done in other paddocks as well.

AC: Maggie’s a good pick, and if I didn’t already have Caton, she’d have been high on my list. However, also high on my list is the most visible announcer in horse racing, one I’m surprised is still available.

ROUND 6, PICK 3: ANDREW CHAMPAGNE
LARRY COLLMUS, ANNOUNCER

With the retirement of Tom Durkin and the semi-retirement of Trevor Denman, racing needs a voice to carry it forward, and of the announcers left on the board, Collmus is the most logical candidate. He’s the Triple Crown and Breeders’ Cup voice, and he figures to be in that position for a long time.

JN: Curses, I was hoping Maggie might fall to me for one of my last picks. I’m floored she made it this far down the board.

Okay, time to round out my team. I’ve still got a handicapper and a bench player to draft. Here we go…

ROUND 6, PICK 4/ROUND 7, PICK 1: JOE NEVILLS
JOE KRISTUFEK, HANDICAPPER
JONATHAN HOROWITZ, BENCH

I honestly thought about taking Mike Battaglia here. His announcing style is an easy target, but I’ve got a lot of respect for his ability to handicap a race, and he’s another name that brings instant gravitas to a crew and is comfortable in front of a camera. That said, he looks to be easing his way out of the spotlight, so I might find myself seeking a replacement before long.

Joe Kristufek is the kind of person you’d want to hang out with and break down a card, and that’s what I want in my on-air team. He’s been the handicapping face of racetracks big and small, so he’s got a broad range of experience. He skews younger, but he’s been around and done enough that the simulblast lifers shouldn’t scoff too heavily at the kid on the screen who thinks he’s something making all these picks like it’s his job or something. On-air handicapper is a spot where mouth-breathers are going to open fire no matter what you do, but I think Joe’s strong enough to handle the assault, and does plenty to ensure the haters don’t have a leg to stand on. Plus, he’s another one that’s just a walking “Good PR Machine” for your track. Put him on the desk with Christina Blacker and Chris McCarron and you’ve got a dynamic and diverse booth heading up your broadcast.

Meanwhile, I have no idea how I’d fit Horowitz into the overall team. All I know is he gives a significant damn about what he does, and he’s a one-man wrecking crew when it comes to broadcasting, reporting, and generally doing anything within his abilities to make you care about Arapahoe Park. Oh, and he also calls the races. I need that guy on my roster. We’ll figure out the details later.

AC: I’ve got a bench spot available, and for me, versatility is extremely important. I ping-ponged between three people for this spot, but ultimately went with…

ROUND 7, PICK 2: ANDREW CHAMPAGNE
DON STEVENS, BENCH

He works at a smaller track (Delta Downs), but this is a guy who can literally do ANYTHING I’d need him to do. He’s a strong announcer, of course, but he also serves as Delta Downs’s one-man simulcast show AND does all of their media relations work. I can plug Don Stevens in anywhere on this team, and he’d not only do the job, he’d do it exceptionally well. I couldn’t ask for a better “utility player.”

Honorable mentions for my last spot go to both Darin Zoccali and Dave Weaver, who both bring similar versatility to the table. Ultimately, I figured Larry Collmus would be on call for major events every now and then, and I wanted someone with more of an announcing background. That said, it was a very tough call.

ROUND 7, PICK 3: ED DEROSA
CANDICE HARE, BENCH

She keeps with the international theme, and I like the degenerate vibe. Now that she has a TVG gig, the hours don’t seem as odd, but back in the day, she was picking races 20 hours a day and using the other four to complain about how bad the Tigers are.

JN: Alright, all we need now is the Mr./Ms./Mrs. Irrelevant. Pete, it’s your time to shine!

ROUND 7, PICK 4: PETE AIELLO
PASSIONATE ROOKIE FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF ARIZONA’S RACE TRACK INDUSTRY PROGRAM: BENCH

They helped give me so many opportunities in the business and it would be pleasure to give some of those same opportunities to someone else. Along those lines, by using the person as the resident “utility player”, they will broaden their skill set…a vital component to success in this industry in my view.

AC: I KNEW you were a softie at heart, Pete!

FULL TEAMS

JOE NEVILLS

Announcer: Pete Aiello
Host: Christina Blacker
Analyst: Chris McCarron
Handicapper: Joe Kristufek
Field/Paddock Reporter: Gary West
Flex: Donna Barton-Brothers
Bench: Jonathan Horowitz

ANDREW CHAMPAGNE

Announcer: Larry Collmus
Host: Laffit Pincay III
Analyst: Richard Migliore
Handicapper: Gino Buccola
Field/Paddock Reporter: Caton Bredar
Flex: Millie Ball
Bench: Don Stevens

ED DEROSA

Announcer: Jason Beem
Host: Scott Hazelton
Analyst: Nick Luck
Handicapper: Doug Salvatore
Field/Paddock Reporter: Maggie Wolfendale
Flex: Rachel McLaughlin
Bench: Candice Hare

PETE AIELLO

Announcer: Travis Stone
Host: Gabby Gaudet
Analyst: Matt Carothers
Handicapper: Mark Patterson
Field/Paddock Reporter: Britney Eurton
Flex: Dave Rodman
Bench: Passionate rookie from Arizona RTIP

Saratoga’s Coming, And So’s Lots of Content!

We’re a week away from the start of the summer meet at Saratoga Race Course. There’s a lot to be excited about, especially from my standpoint (since I was born and raised in upstate New York).

I’ve been lucky enough to continue working for The Saratogian in a freelance capacity since moving to California in late-2013, and I’m proud to announce that I’ll be back in The Pink Sheet once again this year. I’ll be part of the pick box on the front page, where I was the leading handicapper in 2015 and second-leading handicapper a year ago (Liam Durbin, I’m coming for you!).

Additionally, I’ll provide more extensive race-by-race analysis centering around my top three selections, as well as a running bankroll section, where I’ll start the meet with $1,000 and look to grow it over 40 days (or at least not lose my shirt before the meet ends!). My bankroll section also features space for short blurbs of writing, and we had some gems last year. Those get more fun, though, when I’m using that space to address questions and comments from readers. Tweet me (Twitter.com/AndrewChampagne, if you’re not already following), and if your question or comment is good, you may see a response in print!

There’s even more excitement on my end, though, and that’s because of what I’m about to tell you. In addition to being available in The Pink Sheet, all of my content will also be available right here on AndrewChampagne.com prior to each and every racing day. I work a day in advance so as to mitigate the three-hour time difference, so my analysis will usually be online 24-48 hours before a card’s first post time. There’s going to be a lot of content to digest, and I really hope you enjoy reading it.

As always, I extend my warmest regards to those at The Saratogian, namely managing editor Charlie Kraebel, sports editor David Johnson, and the entire sports staff, which works tirelessly to create two different publications during a very busy time of the year. It’s not easy to do what they do, especially in trying times for newspapers, but the staff does a tremendous job, and I’m proud to continue my work for them.

Let’s make some money this summer, everyone!