Lake Placid | Andrew Champagne

SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (8/20/22)

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $900.45

Saturday is my personal “getaway day,” as I fly back to Northern California Sunday. Saratoga is a special place for me, for any number of reasons, and being able to experience part of the meet in-person has been fantastic.

That should only continue with what hits me as one of the best cards of the summer to date. The Grade 1 Alabama, featuring Nest and Secret Oath, is the main event, but it’s far from the only intriguing race on the program. Big fields of top-tier thoroughbreds are a large part of what makes Saratoga the best meet in the country every year, and I’m beyond appreciative for the opportunity to enjoy it as much as I do.

FRIDAY’S RESULTS: My Pick Five went up in smoke early. The silver lining is I dropped only $18 after scratches punched some holes into my initial ticket.

SATURDAY’S PLAY: If this isn’t an ideal Grand Slam sequence, I don’t know if one exists. Let’s try to extract value out of Nest with the following $2 ticket starting in the seventh: 1,2,5 with 1,3 with 5,6 with 4. I’ll also have a $5 win ticket on #3 MY CARA MIA MINE in the fourth, where that one seems like a lone closer in a race full of speed.

TOTAL WAGERED: $29.

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Nest, Race 10
Longshot: Steinbeck, Race 3

Street Vendor
Fioki’s Flight
Sebaray

#6 STREET VENDOR: Ran too poorly to be true last time out and drops further down the ladder for aggressive connections. His two-back effort against maiden special weight foes was pretty good, and Irad Ortiz, Jr., lands here when he probably had a few options; #4 FIOKI’S FLIGHT: Looks like the main speed in the Saturday opener and attracts top gate rider Luis Saez. This barn has been cold all meet long, but it’s entirely possible this one gets to the front early and forgets to stop; #2 SEBARAY: Ran reasonably well in his first start on turf, when he was third behind a horse taking a gigantic class drop. That race came back reasonably fast on speed figures, and Joel Rosario will hop aboard here.

Spooky Road
U Cant Handle This
Holiday Jazz

#4 SPOOKY ROAD: Takes a significant drop from an open $40,000 claimer to a $16,000 claiming event for non-winners of two. Her lone dirt start to date was an OK second at Fair Grounds against straight maidens, and these connections are aggressive enough to where I don’t see the drop as a red flag; #6 U CANT HANDLE THIS: Showed speed going a bit shorter before fading to fourth. She’s shown she can win at this distance, and she may be the main early pace factor in this race; #1 HOLIDAY JAZZ: Was third last time out and was claimed by a barn hitting at 24% on the year. She’s run reasonably well against better groups in the past and could have a shot if she’s able to work out a trip from the inside post.

Favorite Outlaw
Peaceful Waters
Steinbeck

#4 FAVORITE OUTLAW: May have bounced a bit last time when a distant third earlier in the meet. This is his third start off the bench, and when Joel Rosario rides for Steve Asmussen, it usually means a horse is live; #3 PEACEFUL WATERS: Has a lot of early speed and has chased the likes of Cyberknife, Happy Jack, and Osbourne, among others. There are stamina issues here, but if the track is playing kindly to speed and this one gets comfortable early, he could prove tough to run down; #7 STEINBECK: Hasn’t won in a long time and figures to be a big price. However, he exits a pretty fast race at Colonial, which doubled as his first start since March. A step forward from that could conceivably make him a player here.

My Cara Mia Mine
Rent Control
Ard Macha

#3 MY CARA MIA MINE: Came with a rally in her first start since February, and that running style should serve her well here. She’s a closer in a race full of speed horses with stamina issues, and any sort of step forward second off the bench gives her a big chance to earn the diploma: #2 RENT CONTROL: Is the one I like most of the speed horses. She did everything but win last time out at Belmont, where she led by three in mid-stretch and got nailed in the final strides. This is technically a class hike out of the maiden claiming ranks, but she’s still facing state-breds, so it’s not a huge one; #6 ARD MACHA: Has a right to improve in what’s just her third lifetime start. She was one-paced in her debut before fading to fourth last time out, which means she could potentially be rated here and pounce late beneath Flavien Prat.

Desert Wolf (MTO)
Activist Investing
Coach Petro

#6 ACTIVIST INVESTING: Was eliminated early on last time, when he was taken, well, wide right on the first turn by #7 WIDERIGHT. Still, he rallied to be beaten less than five lengths, and I’m expecting significant improvement in his second career start; #1 COACH PETRO: Hit the front in the stretch of that same race before settling for second, but he ran a pretty solid race that day and showed he has some talent. Brad Cox’s numbers with second-out maidens are as good as those of any trainer in the game; #5 RARIFIED FLAIR: Didn’t have much room to run in the stretch last time out, and while that day’s winner was probably best, you can argue this one should’ve been second. He’s got the top last-out Beyer Speed Figure in this field, and a clean trip would give him a chance.

Repole entry
Dangerous Edge
Whittington Park

REPOLE ENTRY: I prefer #1A BEST IDEA, who’s been chasing stakes foes in each of his last two starts (both seconds). This one-mile trip ought to hit the Todd Pletcher trainee right between the eyes, and he sure looks like the one to beat; #6 DANGEROUS EDGE: Won two in a row before finishing fourth in the slop here last month. That was a two-turn route, and that’s probably just a bit too far for him. The return to this one-mile trip should be a welcome one, and I expect him to be prominent early given his tactical speed; #4 WHITTINGTON PARK: Probably needed his 2022 debut, which came as his first start since September against an OK group. He gets first-time Lasix here, which is an outstanding angle for trainer Brad Cox, and he ran well over this track twice a season ago.

Echo Again
Expected Value
Good News Rocket

#5 ECHO AGAIN: Is a tepid top pick in one of the most fascinating 2-year-old maiden races we’ve seen this summer. A half-brother to stakes winner Pneumatic, this son of Gun Runner is out of a strong female line that’s produced stakes types Pyro, Farrier, War Echo, and Wild Wonder, among others; #1 EXPECTED VALUE: Sold for $180,000 at auction as a weanling and is working like a very strong prospect. This colt out of stakes-winning mare Midnight Visit has turned heads in the mornings and may be talented enough to overcome the tricky inside draw; #2 GOOD NEWS ROCKET: Hammered for $700,000 earlier this year, and trainer Bill Mott has shown he can win with first-time starters in this crop. He doesn’t usually work his young horses too quickly, so that four-furlong gate drill on August 7th jumps off the page.

With The Moonlight
Eminent Victor
Dolce Zel

#1 WITH THE MOONLIGHT: Ran very well to take the Grade 3 Saratoga Oaks less than two weeks ago and is wheeled back quickly by world-class horseman Charles Appleby. William Buick won’t be making the trip to ride in the Grade 2 Lake Placid, but Luis Saez is far from a slouch, especially on horses with gate speed like this daughter of the great Frankel; #3 EMINENT VICTOR: Did everything but win last time in the Grade 3 Lake George, when she fell by a nose to a stablemate (more on that one later). She’s one of four runners from this outfit in this race, and I think she’s the most…eminent victor of the bunch (I can hear you booing); #5 DOLCE ZEL: Won the Lake George in a head-bob, but while the running lines say she had trouble, I thought Eminent Victor had a worse trip. This one, though, is certainly talented enough to run well, and we know she has an affinity for this turf course.

Miss J McKay
Too Sexy
Robin Sparkles

#6 MISS J MCKAY: Encountered a lot of trouble last time out in the Grade 3 Caress, where she was beaten less than a length despite steadying several times. At her best, she’s an excellent turf sprinter with a devastating turn of foot, and I think the Smart N Fancy will set up for a closer like her or…; #5 TOO SEXY: …who almost certainly needed her run in the License Fee off a long layoff. She ran well here twice a season ago, Joel Rosario sees fit to ride back, and she’s another that should be flying coming down the lane; #3 ROBIN SPARKLES: Prompted backers to enthusiastically sing “Let’s Go To The Mall” after winning the Caress in wire-to-wire fashion at odds of 21-1. She did have a perfect trip, and she may have more opposition up front early, but she’s also never been worse than third in four local starts.

R10

Nest
Secret Oath
Gerrymander

#4 NEST: Put forth a freakish performance in the Grade 1 Coaching Club American Oaks, where she romped by more than 12 lengths and earned a 104 Beyer Speed Figure. She’d need to regress off of that race for others to have a chance in the Grade 1 Alabama, and even if that happens, another runner may still need to fire a career-best shot; #7 SECRET OATH: Chased Nest that day in what was initially seen as a battle of divisional heavyweights. The winner of the Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks has back races that would be competitive here, but it’s worth wondering if perhaps she’s feeling the effects of a campaign that’s included four Grade 1 races at four different tracks; #3 GERRYMANDER: Didn’t beat many in the Grade 2 Mother Goose, but she earned a 98 Beyer Speed Figure in doing so and topped next-out stakes winner Shahama. This distance is a major question mark, but she’s been training well and retains Joel Rosario.

R11

Air Show (MTO)
Wicked Fast
Aviano

#4 WICKED FAST: Is one of several taking a big drop to run in this $35,000 claiming event, and he does so two starts after topping first-level allowance foes downstate. He was beaten just four lengths by Good Governance, who would likely thump this field, and a similar effort may be enough in the Saturday finale; #7 AVIANO: Exits a very tough race won by next-out stakes winner Dynadrive, and he’ll run for a tag for the first time here. His two-back win at Churchill was very solid, and that day’s rider returns to the saddle here; #6 SARATOGA FLASH: Exits a pretty fast race where he was beaten just three lengths by a horse that does his best running over this turf course. Javier Castellano will ride for the first time, and this is a gelding with some versatility.

SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (8/21/21; ALABAMA DAY)

Posted on August 19, 2021 by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,002.90

The Alabama is one of my favorite races of the meet. It’s the only Grade 1 for 3-year-old fillies at a mile and a quarter on dirt, and some of the best performances I’ve ever seen at Saratoga have come in that race. I was there in-person for Questing’s romp in 2012 and Princess of Sylmar’s easy score in 2013 (she, by the way, got royally hosed in an indefensible Eclipse Award vote that season), and the list of winners includes horses like Songbird, Royal Delta, Go For Wand, Shuvee, and Gamely.

Saratoga is a place that harkens back to the glory days of racing, and it presents many things that simply don’t exist anywhere else anymore. In this case, that includes the Alabama, which provides ways for horses bred for stamina, rather than whatever the heck “brilliance” is, to strut their stuff on a big stage. It’s always a fun race to watch, and I’m excited for the 2021 renewal and the loaded undercard that will come with it.

FRIDAY’S RESULTS: For the second time this week, we were washed out due to a weather-induced surface switch.

SATURDAY’S PLAY: I’ll focus early in the card and attempt to extract value out of some heavy favorites. First, I’ll play a $15 cold Pick Three starting in the opener that singles #6 TRIPLE ELVIS, #2 ZAINALARAB, and #1 ROBIN SPARKLES in their respective races. I’ll also play a 50-cent early Pick Five that looks like this: 6 with 2 with 1 with 2,4,7,9,10,11 with 1,4,5. Finally, I’ll punch a cold $6 double starting in the second that singles Zainalarab and Robin Sparkles.

TOTAL WAGERED: $30.

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Malathaat, Race 10
Longshot: Charlie Five O, Race 8

Triple Elvis
Pletcher entry
Fan the Fire

#6 TRIPLE ELVIS: Hammered for $700,000 at auction last year, and for good reason. He’s by Into Mischief, out of a mare who herself is out of the great Serena’s Song, and he’s been working very quickly. If he runs to the works, I think we’ll see a head-turning performance in the Alabama Day opener; PLETCHER ENTRY: Both #1 NAPA VALLEY and #1A MAJOR GENERAL have every right to run well here. Pletcher’s exploits with first-time starters are well-documented, and he’s enlisted a pair of top-tier riders to pilot these two; #2 FAN THE FIRE: Wasn’t disgraced in his debut, when he was second in an off-the-turf event behind a well-meant runner. The pedigree says he’ll get better with experience, and having a start under his belt could be a big plus (only one other runner in here has raced).

Zainalarab
Portilla
Primacy

#2 ZAINALARAB: Looms large against a short field of just four others in this allowance event. She won first time out back in September, was a good second behind the talented Australasia in April, and any sort of a move forward would make her a formidable favorite; #4 PORTILLA: Cuts back to one turn after a failed two-turn experiment here last month. She won at first asking and was fourth in a fast race at this distance two back, and she figures to do her best running late; #3 PRIMACY: Adds blinkers for Chad Brown and, at a minimum, will be a bigger price than her stablemate. She’s run figures that show she fits here, and if a faster-than-expected pace materializes here, she’ll be heard from late.

Robin Sparkles
Lead Guitar
Piedi Bianchi

#1 ROBIN SPARKLES: Tired to finish third behind Caravel in the Grade 3 Caress last month. However, she sure looks like the controlling speed here in the Smart N Fancy. I think she leads every step of the way and prompts trips to the mall for fans of “How I Met Your Mother”; #2 LEAD GUITAR: Won four in a row to end 2020 and had an adventurous go of it in the Grade 2 Royal North at Woodbine. She was declared a non-starter that day, and she may have needed the race anyway. If another runner goes with my top pick early on, this is the one that’ll benefit the most; #4 PIEDI BIANCHI: Has earned some big checks in some big spots and is an easy horse to root for. She was second in the Grade 3 Intercontinental two back at Belmont, and while this may be a bit shorter than her best distance, her talent could be enough to get her a piece of this one.

Tangerine Dream
Escapology
Maria’s Gift

#11 TANGERINE DREAM: Is a bit of a gamble given that she hasn’t been out of the barn since November of last year. However, her lone start here was pretty good, she gets Lasix for the first time, and her last two works have been very good. Luis Saez sees fit to ride, and the outside draw should give him plenty of options; #4 ESCAPOLOGY: Returned from a three-month freshening to run fourth in the slop earlier in the meet. She was rushed up after a poor start and probably lost all chance at that point. This barn connects at a solid clip with horses second off the bench, and I can’t ignore her; #2 MARIA’S GIFT: Has had plenty of chances, but ran into a runaway winner last time out and has races before that which would put her right there in this spot. I’m not sure how many more chances I can give her, but she should be prominent early and have every opportunity to work out a trip that gives her a shot.

Too Early (MTO)
Ghost Giant
Regal Speaker

#4 GHOST GIANT: Has been very popular at the claim box and makes his first start for Rob Atras, whose barn has been firing on all cylinders this summer. He may not have appreciated the yielding going last time, and a repeat of his winning effort two back over firm ground at Belmont would make him tough; #1 REGAL SPEAKER: Has won three of his last six starts and delivered as the 6/5 favorite in a lower-level event downstate back in June. He’s shown he can go two turns, and he won over this route of ground when graduating out of the maiden ranks a season ago; #5 MATTY’S EXPRESS: Made his local debut a winning one when he prevailed by a neck as a 10-1 longshot last month. This is a tougher spot, but he’s been very consistent since being claimed by Kelly Breen last August, and his usual race would likely earn him a minor award.

Betsy Blue (MTO)
Kokopelli
Awsum Roar

#8 KOKOPELLI: May have bounced last time out, when she stretched out to seven furlongs over a yielding turf course at Belmont. The cutback to 5 1/2 furlongs should help her, and I think she’ll be the one the rest of the field has to worry about late; #3 AWSUM ROAR: Was compromised by a slow pace here earlier in the meet, and it didn’t help that the winner was a well-meant runner that came right back to earn another victory at next asking. Her races earlier this year at Gulfstream were pretty sharp, and I’m willing to give her another shot (at least in the exotics); #4 SILKY BLUE: Has been very competitive at this level downstate and could sit a great stalking trip. This barn doesn’t saddle a ton of horses, but it’s hit at a 20% clip in 2021 and merits plenty of respect whenever a runner is led over.

My Prankster
Reserve Currency
Skate to Heaven

#2 MY PRANKSTER: Sold for $600,000 at auction last year and has been training forwardly for Pletcher. The two half-mile gate drills jump off the page, and he’s bred to be a runner, being by Into Mischief and out of a mare that won multiple graded stakes races; #8 RESERVE CURRENCY: Must’ve been quite impressive earlier this year, because he sold for $375,000 despite a very modest pedigree. He’s worked steadily for Chad Brown, the last two drills show a tightening of the screws, and he draws well in his first lifetime start; #4 SKATE TO HEAVEN: Has turned in some solid five-furlong gate drills for Robertino Diodoro, who popped at a big price with a first-time starter last week. Diodoro’s hit at a 22% clip with firsters and boasts a very strong ROI, so it wouldn’t be a shock if this son of Laoban was ready to go.

Identity Politics
Charlie Five O
Restoring Hope

#4 IDENTITY POLITICS: Is a reluctant top pick in the first leg of the late Pick Four. He hasn’t won in quite a while and is a Chad Brown trainee with many Monmouth works, and both of those facts are red flags. However, he’s the lone closer in what looks like a race with lots of speed, and that’s something I just cannot ignore; #5 CHARLIE FIVE O: Crushed an overmatched field of lower-level claimers in his last start, after which he was claimed by Linda Rice. He’s been working well ahead of his return, attracts Jose Ortiz for this event, and has enough speed to be prominent from the jump; #1 RESTORING HOPE: Is one of the most star-crossed horses in racing and takes a big drop in class. At various junctures Justify’s Belmont Stakes fullback and a sign that Jason Servis’s barn may not have been on the up-and-up, he has an excuse for his last-out dud, which came in his first start since August against a much better group.

Spanish Loveaffair
Technical Analysis
Ego Trip

#6 SPANISH LOVEAFFAIR: Misfired in the Grade 1 Belmont Oaks but has enough talent and the right running style to spring a mild upset in the Grade 2 Lake Placid. She’s got plenty of tactical speed, was impressive winning at this distance in the Grade 3 Herecomesthebride before being taken down in an indefensible DQ, and could inherit the early lead by default. If she does, look out; #2 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: Was an overlay at 7-1 in the Grade 3 Lake George and made the betting public pay with an impressive score. She did have a perfect trip that day, but the smaller field puts a similar scenario in play here, and when Chad Brown gets turf horses on the right track, they tend to stay there; #3 EGO TRIP: Was running well late in her North American debut, which doubled as a pretty salty maiden race here earlier in the meet. I think it’s a sign of confidence she’s entered here, not at that level, and she could very well improve in her second American outing.

R10

Malathaat
Army Wife
Maracuja

#6 MALATHAAT: Suffered her first career defeat in the Grade 1 Coaching Club American Oaks, but she ran very well that day. She set a legitimate pace, and that’s not necessarily her best game. There’s other speed in the Grade 1 Alabama, and she should be able to sit back in the first flight and pounce turning for home; #7 ARMY WIFE: Has developed into a very good filly and is in search of her third straight graded stakes score. She runs like a horse that should enjoy racing’s classic, 10-furlong distance, and the Mike Maker barn has been as successful as any at this stand; #4 MARACUJA: Pulled off a 14-1 upset in the CCA Oaks last time out and won’t be anywhere near that price here. She ran very well, to be sure, but she also received one of the best rides we’ve seen this summer, and she may need to take another step forward here.

R11

Perfect Grace (MTO)
Split Then Double
Gauff

#4 SPLIT THEN DOUBLE: Has never run a poor race on the lawn and was third in the same maiden race that featured Ego Trip, who’s set to run in the Lake Placid. Based on speed figures, she looms large as the one to beat, and the Saturday finale looks like it’s her race to lose; #1 GAUFF: Debuts for Brad Cox, and while it’s tough for some horses to go two turns at first asking, she’s bred up and down for this route and has worked well. She’s a half-sister to a Group 3-placed runner, and her second dam is a stakes-winning turf sprinter; #6 INGRESS: Didn’t run badly in her debut earlier this meet, when she was fourth and a bit more than a length behind my top pick. Her two half-mile drills since that effort have been sharp, and she has every right to improve.

Saratoga Race Course Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll: 8/18/18

Posted on August 17, 2018 by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $534.20

Today’s card at Saratoga may be the best one of the meet to this point. Several of the top 3-year-old fillies in the country will be in action, and the card also boasts a number of intriguing races for 2-year-olds. There are plenty of great wagering opportunities on tap, and it’s a pleasure to handicap programs like this that reflect what Saratoga should always be: One of the last remaining cathedrals in horse racing.

FRIDAY’S RESULTS: Shang Shang Shang scratched scratched scratched, so our $20 cold double was refunded.

SATURDAY’S PLAY: I’m going to take a stand against #3 MIDNIGHT BISOU in the Alabama. She’s a very nice horse, but the distance is a big question mark, and I can’t endorse her at her likely price. I’ll play doubles starting and ending in that race that use #4 SHE’S A JULIE and #8 TALK VEUVE TO ME. My $8 doubles starting in the eighth single #6 RUSHING FALL, and my $4 doubles ending in the tenth use #3 NEOCLASSIC, #4 REFLECTED STAR, and #11 EXPECTED RULER (assuming, of course, that the race stays on turf). Additionally, I’ll play a $1 Pick Three starting in the eighth that uses those horses.

TOTAL WAGERED: $34

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Rushing Fall, Race 8
Longshot: Noble Nebraskan, Race 2

Azzedine
Causeur
End of an Era

#2 AZZEDINE: Drops further down the ladder after falling as a 7/5 favorite earlier in the meet. This doesn’t seem like a distinguished field, and it seems like one he’ll beat with his usual race; #8 CAUSEUR: Had an eventful trip last time out, so it’s easy to draw a line through that race. He has back races that would make him a contender here, and we may get a price given the recent clunker; #9 END OF AN ERA: Adds blinkers for his local debut after an OK performance at Delaware Park. The blinkers could get him more involved early, and the presence of speed rider Kendrick Carmouche could also signal that he’s going early.

Standard Deviation (MTO)
Noble Nebraskan
Medina Ridge

#10 NOBLE NEBRASKAN: Is bred up and down for turf and has a solid series of works ahead of his debut. George Weaver can win with first-time starters, and we may get a price in what seems like a wide-open event; #9 MEDINA RIDGE: Is another bred to be a strong grass horse. He’s by War Front, out of a Smart Strike mare, and goes out for a barn that’s had success with firsters on turf; #6 SOUTHERN BRIDGE: Was fifth in his debut earlier in the meet, and was beaten just two lengths that day despite a wide trip. Improvement is logical at second asking for a patient barn. DIRT SELECTIONS: STANDARD DEVIATION, GOOSE DRANK WINE, PERCEIVED.

Forge
Nigel’s Destiny
Helooksthepart

#1 FORGE: Did everything but win last time out in a very fast race for the level. He was claimed by Mike Maker that day, and he retains the services of jockey Javier Castellano; #7 NIGEL’S DESTINY: Is the only runner in this race with multiple wins at the seven-furlong distance. He was third behind a next-out winner in an allowance event downstate, and his last start for a tag was a win; #5 HELOOKSTHEPART: Didn’t fire last time out in a race several of today’s foes also exit, but is a closer in an event with plenty of early speed signed on. He may be past his peak, but the race shape will almost certainly benefit him.

Ahead of Plan
Principled
Cromwell Avenue

#7 AHEAD OF PLAN: Has a purchase price ($475,000) that jumps off the page given his very modest pedigree. He’s worked well of late and figures to be tough if he runs to those drills; #2 PRINCIPLED: Is the other logical first-time starter. He’s by Medaglia d’Oro and out of Grade 2 winner Teen Pauline, who set the five-furlong track record here at Saratoga in her 2012 debut; #8 CROMWELL AVENUE: Didn’t do much running in his debut, which was won by an impressive 2-year-old named Nitrous. He didn’t have a great trip that day and could improve here at a price.

Our Girl Abby
Tee Up
Richie’slilwildcat

#3 OUR GIRL ABBY: Got the dirty end of a photo finish last time out but has a right to turn the tables on that rival here. There’s lots of early speed in this race, and she’s shown an ability to rate; #6 TEE UP: Was the winner of that photo finish following a perfect trip and smart ride by Joel Rosario. A repeat isn’t out of the question, but Rosario’s in California and there’s much more early speed signed on today; #4 RICHIE’SLILWILDCAT: Has won two small stakes races and ships in for a prominent Midwest outfit. She’ll likely make the lead, and it wouldn’t be a shock if she wires the field, but she may have to work hard out of the gate to get to the front.

Wild Medagliad’oro
Most Mischief
Fed Fever

#5 WILD MEDAGLIAD’ORO: Close well to be second in his debut after racing very wide most of the way. If there’s any hesitation here, it’s because he’s bred to go much longer (and ran like it in his unveiling), but this certainly seems like the weaker split of the same race (the fourth has the same conditions); #3 MOST MISCHIEF: Improved at second asking when third behind Nitrous despite a trip that didn’t do him many favors. He has an experience edge on this group, which could prove valuable; #7 FED FEVER: Was bet in his debut but raced very wide and likely wasn’t fully persevered with. He’s continued to work well and has every right to step forward with a start under his belt.

Lovely La La
Hollywood Cat
Way Smart

#8 LOVELY LA LA: Was much the best in her maiden win downstate, and that day’s third-place finisher has since come back to win. The pedigree says two turns won’t be an issue, and speed’s always a plus on the inner turf course; #3 HOLLYWOOD CAT: Flopped when fourth as a 3/2 favorite earlier in the meet, but the turf course was very wet that day. If the ground is on the firmer side, she has a big chance to improve for a proven barn; #4 WAY SMART: May have moved a bit too soon last time out at this level, but still ran an OK third. She’s yet to run a truly bad race and has shown some flexibility in her running style.

Rushing Fall
Thewayiam
Significant Form

#6 RUSHING FALL: Was very rank last time out and still only missed by a neck in what doubled as her first career loss. She wants to rate and should be able to do that behind several others in this field; #1 THEWAYIAM: Hasn’t run a bad race this year and was a good second in the Belmont Oaks. The rail draw isn’t ideal for a closer, but she was only a length behind Rushing Fall earlier this year at Keeneland; #4 SIGNIFICANT FORM: Was fourth in the Belmont Oaks in a race that may have been longer than she wants to go. The cutback in distance should help her, and she’ll likely be on or near the lead given her ample tactical speed.

Talk Veuve to Me
She’s a Julie
Midnight Bisou

#8 TALK VEUVE TO ME: Chased Mia Mischief and Monomoy Girl earlier this year, but cruised in the Grade 3 Indiana Oaks and showed she could go two turns. This field isn’t heavy on tactical speed, and she’s worked really well here of late; #4 SHE’S A JULIE: Romped in the Grade 3 Iowa Oaks and is another that shouldn’t be too far back early. Take out the Fair Grounds races, and you’re left with a much better resume; #3 MIDNIGHT BISOU: Was second in the CCA Oaks, but had every chance that day and just couldn’t stick with Monomoy Girl. It seems like she struggles going further than a mile and a sixteenth, and I’m not sure this is the trip she wants.

R10

Brimstone (MTO)
Reflected Star
Expected Ruler

#4 REFLECTED STAR: Gets a tepid nod in a wide-open finale. He’s shown early speed and was claimed out of his last race (a weirdly-run event) by a barn that’s done great work this year with a fairly small outfit; #11 EXPECTED RULER: Just missed at 25-1 last time out against much better, and is a major player if he draws in off the AE list. His effort two back has aged well, as he was third behind next-out Grade 3 winner Sandy’z Slew; #3 NEOCLASSIC: Has won two of his last three, and in those wins, he topped many of today’s rivals. If there’s any hesitation here, it’s because he seems to prefer one-turn routes to two-turn trips, and he gets the latter here. DIRT SELECTIONS: BRIMSTONE, BITUMEN, CALIFORNIA SWING.