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SARATOGA SELECTIONS AND ANALYSIS
Best Bet: War and Majesty, Race 10
Longshot: Bolt Island, Race 2
R1
Two by Two by Two
Hanna’s Hideaway
Oath
#7 TWO BY TWO BY TWO (9/5): Is a logical favorite in the Friday opener coming back to her preferred surface second off the bench for powerhouse connections. Her best race came over this dirt course last summer, when she was third behind two next-out winners for a much higher claiming price than this $20,000 tag; #3 HANNA’S HIDEAWAY (8-1): Seems to find trouble but did improve last time out, running third in a race where the runner-up came back to graduate. That was over a sloppy track, which makes for a few undesirable variables, but it’s also possible she’s improving; #8 OATH (3-1): Showed speed in a pair of Kentucky outings this past spring and makes her local debut for Linda Rice, who’s won plenty of races with horses coming from that circuit. There are some stamina questions, but she certainly looks like the one they’ll have to catch.
R2
Just Peachy
Bolt Island (AE)
Conflict
#7 JUST PEACHY (5/2): Ran well in her debut, where she was second despite some contact out of the gate. This barn’s runners tend to improve considerably with experience, and she’s kin to multiple graded stakes-winning turf router Buchu, which hints that two turns should be right up her street; #9 BOLT ISLAND (12-1): Needs a scratch to draw in but is worth a look at a price if she gets to run. Being by Bolt d’Oro and out of a Scat Daddy mare, she’s got every right to love the lawn, and her works for high-percentage trainer Mark Casse look quite sharp; #3 CONFLICT (4-1): Sold for $300,000 across the street last year and is another with turf on both sides of her pedigree. Her dam, though, is a half-sister to sharp sprinter Kirby’s Penny, and sire Golden Pal never went long. Perhaps, though, she’ll be talented enough to pass this two-turn test.
R3
My Gun’s Loaded
Nycon
Bow Draw
#6 MY GUN’S LOADED (4/5): Came back running off the bench when she smashed a field of maidens here last month. That day’s runner-up won next time out, and while the distance and class tests are both quite stiff, anything close to her last-out speed figure likely means the race is for second; #3 NYCON (5-1): Earned minor awards in several races on the road to the Kentucky Oaks, draws well in this spot, and gets Lasix for the first time. The rider switch to Tyler Gaffalione is a big one, and her tactical speed may put her in a great spot; #8 BOW DRAW (8-1): Was a “they knew” horse earlier in the met, when she jogged by nine lengths at this route against a weaker group after being bet down to 6/5. This is a step up the ladder, and the post position isn’t ideal, but Jose Ortiz sees fit to ride back when he likely had a few options.
R4
Glen Airy
Neon Bordeaux
Get a Job
#1 GLEN AIRY (5/2): Adds blinkers and drops in class for this second straight race out of the Wilson chute. He’s run well against much better groups in the past, and it’s tough to go against inside-drawn speed at this quirky route; #8 NEON BORDEAUX (9/2): May have been my top pick if not for the outside draw. He’s 3-for-5 at this distance, and he was going very well not too long ago. Flavien Prat has the mount, and if anyone can work out a successful trip from out there, it’s probably him; #3 GET A JOB (8-1): Hasn’t run since October but is 2-for-3 at this route, one some horses just seem to take to. This barn has gotten off to a chilly start to the meet, but this gelding has some back races that make him a contender and he may offer some value.
R5
Sports Hero
Tedder
Swaging
#7 SPORTS HERO (6-1): Comes back to dirt after a one-paced fifth for double this claiming price last time out, and that day’s winner has since won again. There’s a lot of speed in this one and very little apparent stamina. I want a closer that can pick up the pieces, and he’s shown an ability to pass others late; #11 TEDDER (9/2): Takes a big drop in class for a barn that doesn’t usually do this, which is a question mark. However, he goes second off the bench and is another that will want to do his best running in the later stages of the race. Getting back to his late-2025 form would make him formidable; #10 SWAGING (7/2): Graduated two back and was probably just in too deep last time out against optional claiming foes. The drop makes sense, and he’s got the speed figures I like to see, but they’ll likely be going very fast early on, and that could take some of the starch out of a runner that will take plenty of betting money.
R6
Quartz Mountain
Without Hesitation (AE)
Girls Wear Pearls
#4 QUARTZ MOUNTAIN (7/2): Sold for $450,000 at Keeneland last fall and has every right to be special. This dam’s three prior foals to race are all winners, and second dam Tap Your Heels is best known as the dam of Tapit. The fast works are good to see, and while she’s not a huge price, the morning line odds hit me as an overlay; #13 WITHOUT HESITATION (2-1): Is another for Wesley Ward, and she’ll need several scratches to draw in. However, she put forth an excellent drill at the OBS sale and sold for $2.3 million. She’s bred to be precocious, being out of 2-year-old stakes winner Brazen Persuasion, and if she’s able to run, I have to include her; #9 GIRLS WEAR PEARLS (9/2): Has an experience edge in here and was an OK third in her debut a few weeks ago. This barn’s first-time starters usually need a race to get going, and she had some trouble that day. Prat rides back, and if she takes a logical step forward, she could be right there.
R7
Higher Force (MTO)
Nonna Lynne
Mommy’s Turn
#4 NONNA LYNNE (4-1): Ran fine in her comeback race downstate, when she was second behind a runaway winner in her first try since November. She’s never been out of the exacta in three local starts, and while she may be the less-fancied Chad Brown runner, she’s the one I want on top, slightly edging…; #8 MOMMY’S TURN (3-1): …who set a modest pace in that same race before fading to finish fourth of five. Yes, she could’ve needed that race, and her effort here two back in the Suzie O’Cain was very good, but she certainly needs to move forward here, and I’m just not inclined to take too short of a price on her; #5 STARSHIP PEGASUS (7/2): Came back running on closing day at Aqueduct, when she cleared her first-level allowance condition. I don’t think she beat a ton that day, but she looked solid doing it, and her early speed could put her in a great spot going into the first turn.
R8
Fully Subscribed
Bless the Broken
Scottish Lassie
#3 FULLY SUBSCRIBED (2-1): Dead-heated for second in the Grade 1 Ogden Phipps with another runner that shows up in the Grade 2 Shuvee, and she gets a tepid nod. This is her third start off the layoff, and that’s when she got pretty good late last year. If a similar form cycle is present here, she’ll be tough; #5 BLESS THE BROKEN (7/2): Always seems to run the same race and pressed a legitimate pace last time. There’s no shame in chasing Nitrogen, and she’s got every right to run well here. It’s fair to wonder whether or not she’s a “win” type, as her lone dirt win since her 2-year-old season came with Lasix over a suspect group, but she generally doesn’t misfire, either; #4 SCOTTISH LASSIE (9/5): May very well go favored here, and when she’s good, she’s very good. However, there is some other early speed in here, and that could make things harder for her. If she gets her dream trip, she’s shown she can capitalize on it, but I’m not sure just how likely that scenario is in this spot.
R9
Max Money (MTO)
A Little At First
Caroline St. Beat
#6 A LITTLE AT FIRST (2-1): Ran very well to top first-level allowance foes last time out and goes up in class for the Rick Violette. She’ll have to run without Lasix, which may have moved her up a bit, but she goes out for a hot barn, gets a huge rider switch to Irad Ortiz, Jr., and may still have room to improve; #7 CAROLINE ST. BEAT (3-1): Hasn’t run since November but showed talent before going to the sidelines. She won first time out at this route and was a close-up second in a stakes race (edging a third-place finisher that won at next asking). If she’s ready to go off the long break, she’ll have every chance; #3 NEWLYN (10-1): Races second off the bench for George Weaver and didn’t run terribly when fourth in her first try since November. She’s got some tactical speed and can sit close to what looks like a legitimate pace before getting first run.
R10
War and Majesty
Battle (MTO)
Gold Sovereign
#9 WAR AND MAJESTY (6-1): Sure looks like the only horse that will want to be forward in the Friday finale, a three-turn marathon on the inner turf. He was a decent second contesting a legitimate pace last time out at Churchill. If he’s able to set a slower pace beneath Luis Saez, I think he’ll make every pole a winning one; #4 GOLD SOVEREIGN (4-1): Ran well to earn minor awards two and three back, and one of those races was at a similar marathon distance to this route. The last-out clunker was disappointing, but Flavien rides back for Chad Brown, and while he may need some pace to run at, he’s also not totally devoid of tactical speed, either; #1 LAHAINALUNA (8-1): Exits the same race as my top pick and made a move to finish fourth that day. Blinkers go on this Joe Sharp trainee, which may mean he’s got less work to do when the real running starts.