BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $790.50

Saturday’s seventh race is the type of event that draws genuine excitement from all sorts of fans. It’s one of the 2-year-old maiden races that boasts an array of exciting prospects from top barns, and we may look back on it as a key race down the road.

Consider this: All 10 horses in this field sold at auction. None of them commanded less than $100,000. Four sold for more than $500,000, while four others hammered for more than $250,000. In total, nearly $4.4 million in horse flesh will be in the paddock before the seventh, and if you’re in attendance, you may want to make your way from wherever you’re sitting to the backyard. You never know when you may be seeing something special. 

FRIDAY’S RESULTS: I got too cute. The Grand Slam sequence wound up very chalky, and my $20 post-scratch investment returned just $16.

SATURDAY’S PLAY: My action focuses on another baby race. I thought #1 VICTORY HALL ran well in her debut, and she’s my key to a big day. In addition to a $30 win bet on her, she’s a single in $5 doubles that start in the first with #2 AIRBORNE ELITE, #4 HOUSE UNITED, and #5 SWEETALKINGBOURBON and end in the third with #2 TREATY OBLIGATION, #4 STOLEN BASE, and #6 ALTERNATE REALITY.

TOTAL WAGERED: $60.

SARATOGA SELECTIONS AND ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Victory Hall, Race 2
Longshot: Stolen Base, Race 3

R1

House United
Airborne Elite
Sweetalkingbourbon

#4 HOUSE UNITED (3-1): Did everything but win last time out, when he had a poor start, traveled wide most of the way, and was beaten just a head. He cuts back to the Wilson chute in the Saturday opener, and Irad Ortiz Jr. sees fit to ride back; #2 AIRBORNE ELITE (9/2): Was second at a similar route at Ellis Park in his first start off the claim for Linda Rice. I think he may be at his best going shorter, but he hits me as the main speed in here and he draws well; #5 SWEETALKINGBOURBON (7/2): Hasn’t fired a bad shot all year and was another that suffered a near-miss last time out, when he was second at this level at Churchill. He may need a bit more pace than he’s likely to get, but his best may be good enough in a competitive lid-lifter.

R2

Victory Hall
Probable Angle
Belloro

#1 VICTORY HALL (5/2): Was a solid second in his debut behind a well-meant runner, and she figures to improve second time out. Her two works since that outing look solid, and she should have every chance to save ground from the rail draw; #2 PROBABLE ANGLE (6-1): Ships up from Penn National and seems to be working very well. That surface is a quirky one, but if the form she’s flashed comes up the highway with her, she could have a chance to win on debut; #6 BELLORO (7/2): Was third in the race my top pick exits and adds blinkers for a barn whose runners tend to improve after an initial start. She does have some ground to make up on the likely favorite, but there’s a lot here that says improvement is logical.

R3

Treaty Obligation
Stolen Base
Alternate Reality

#2 TREATY OBLIGATION (5/2): Broke his maiden out of the chute last summer and takes a significant class drop into straight claiming company. He’s run just twice since February, so it’s safe to assume he’s had his issues, but he got quite good late last year and merits respect on the drop; #4 STOLEN BASE (5-1): Has a sheet that looks far better if you cross out races run over off tracks. He’s 3-for-7 over fast dirt tracks, and while the distance here is a bit of a question mark, he certainly fits on speed figures and may offer some value; #6 ALTERNATE REALITY (7/2): Has had plenty of success at this level in the past and exits a pretty competitive race last month. That day’s runner-up has since come back to win, and while the outside post is a problem, this is one that has shown he’s good enough to contend here.

R4

Nonna Teresa
Cognition
Tennessee Belle

#4 NONNA TERESA (7/2): Debuts for Todd Pletcher after an impressive gate drill and is bred to be a good one. Her dam, Teresa Z, was a multiple Grade 3 winner, and her lineage traces back to third dam My Flag, the dam of champion Storm Flag Flying (and a runner in her own right); #5 COGNITION (4-1): Makes her first start for Chad Brown and fetched $170,000 at auction last summer. Digging into the work tab a bit shows a very impressive gate drill on July 13th, and this barn’s 2-year-olds have been firing all summer long; #6 TENNESSEE BELLE (7/5): Ran in spots in her debut last month and finished second, but I have some reservations about betting her at a short price. I’m not sure what she ran against that day, there are some serious prospects in here, and while experience is valuable, I think her likely price is an underlay.

R5

Valentinian (MTO)
Il Siciliano
Fuerteventura

#5 IL SICILIANO (4-1): Did everything but win last time out, when he lost a photo at a big price at this route. He hasn’t won in a while, but to be fair, he’s run up against some serious horses, and it wasn’t long ago he was fourth in the Grade 3 Pan American behind Far Bridge; #4 FUERTEVENTURA (2-1): Is another that hasn’t found the winner’s circle in a long time, but he improved first off the claim when second in a fast race at this route last month. Kendrick Carmouche rides back, and he’s enjoyed probably the best Saratoga meet of his career to this point; #1 KIGALI (6-1): Stretched out with aplomb last month to get the job done and was claimed out of that race by a sharp outfit. This is a step up in class, to be sure, but it’s also possible he’s finally doing what he’s wanted to do all along.

R6

Bibi Dahl
Keto Drink
Santina

#8 BIBI DAHL (4-1): Debuted running second in stakes company before traveling to Royal Ascot, where she beat half the field home in a 17-horse Group 3 event. That day’s winner and runner-up have both come back to win, and if she’s overcome the jet lag from her intercontinental journey, she hits me as the one to beat; #3 KETO DRINK (5/2): May finally get to run here after a few appearances on AE lists, and she’s a major player. She had trouble in her debut but rallied to be third, and this patient barn tends to move horses forward at second asking; #2 SANTINA (7/2): Debuts for Wesley Ward, which already makes her formidable. She’s been working well both here and at Keeneland, but her bottom-side pedigree is pretty stamina-heavy, and I wonder if she may truly want more ground than she’ll get in this turf sprint.

R7

Hero Declared
Cost Effective
It’s Our Time

#4 HERO DECLARED (5/2): Hammered for $575,000 at auction this year, and word seems to be out on this Whit Beckman trainee. He turned in a fantastic gate drill not long ago, and his productive bottom-side pedigree gives him even more reason to be a runner; #6 COST EFFECTIVE (8-1): Hits me as an overlay at this price given his pedigree. He’s by Into Mischief and out of the very classy mare Lewis Bay, who won graded stakes races in four separate seasons. He’s working well, and it wouldn’t surprise me at all if he was well-meant; #5 IT’S OUR TIME (9/2): Boasts a strong series of works for Tom Amoss, whose barn has enjoyed plenty of success at this stand. This is far from an easy spot in which to debut, but this $425,000 auction purchase is another one to take a closer look at in what is, for my money, the most interesting race of the program.

R8

Get a Job
Crimson Light
Cicciobello

#3 GET A JOB (7/2): Is 2-for-2 out of the Wilson chute, a route some horses (and handicappers…) don’t particularly care for. His win last time out was in an off-the-turf race, but his sheet looks far better if you toss his two clunkers at Oaklawn. Do that, and he looks very much like the one to beat in here; #8 CRIMSON LIGHT (6-1): Misfired last time out downstate but ran well off the long layoff two back. That leads me to believe the clunker was a bounce, and that we might see a return to form here. The question is, how much does the outside post compromise him?; #4 CICCIOBELLO (9/2): Won a stakes race two back and probably needed his last race, which was his first outing since November. He’s a bit inconsistent, but his best race could absolutely win this, and the rider switch to Ricardo Santana is notable.

R9

Schwarzenegger
Sandal’s Song
Spirit of New York

#1 SCHWARZENEGGER (4-1): Has been entered a few times but will make his debut in the Skidmore, and rumblings are that this $950,000 yearling purchase may have a lot of talent. He’s been working sensationally for Wesley Ward, and the ambitious spotting lines up with those drills; #2 SANDAL’S SONG (2-1): Was a competitive third in the Group 2 Norfolk at Royal Ascot, and that day’s runner-up has come back to win. George Weaver’s horses have been running lights-out in turf sprints all meet, and this one is a legitimate favorite; #8 SPIRIT OF NEW YORK (7/2): Won his debut like a very good horse last month, when he sat back, pounced, and drew away convincingly. There seems to be some speed signed on in here, and if he gets the setup he got in his unveiling, he could come running once again.

R10

Good Cheer
La Cara
Nitrogen

#2 GOOD CHEER (8/5): Was 7-for-7 going into the Grade 1 Acorn, where she didn’t run a jump. However, that race was contested over a very wet, very quirky track. I don’t put much stock into it, she’s worked very well since, and if she’s back to her old self, I think she’s the one to beat in the Grade 1 Alabama; #6 LA CARA (5/2): Led every step of the way in the Acorn and could establish herself as the top filly in the country with another Grade 1 win. She sure looks like the controlling speed; my question is, just how far does she want to go, and is this 1 1/4-mile distance within her scope?; #4 NITROGEN (9/5): Comes back to the dirt after a near-miss in the Grade 1 Belmont Oaks and is intriguing given her runaway score in the Wonder Again. Having said that, that was an off-the-turf race two back over that aforementioned quirky, wet surface. Maybe she’s a freak, but I can’t bet her at her likely short price.

R11

Assertiveness
Kid Kreesa
Mo Go

#1 ASSERTIVENESS (2-1): Comes up from Monmouth for Todd Pletcher, which is sometimes a red flag. However, this colt takes a big, big drop in class. He was fifth in a stakes race two back, runs against restricted claimers here, and his best race crushes these; #10 KID KREESA (7/2): Is a known quantity at this point. He’ll go out early and lead them for as long as he can. There’s some other speed in here, but he does get a rider upgrade in this spot and he figures to be the one they’ll have to catch turning for home; #5 MO GO (9/2): Goes back to the grass here, and I think that’s his best surface. He earned the diploma in a turf route at Gulfstream last year, and this is his first two-turn event on the lawn since then.

R12

Vekinda (MTO)
Pay the Juice
Spoken Bluntly

#10 PAY THE JUICE (4-1): Cuts back to a sprint here and seems far more effective going short. He was third at this route last summer in a race that’s aged very, very well, and while the outside post isn’t ideal, he should be rolling late in the nightcap; #1 SPOKEN BLUNTLY (9/2): Seems like the main speed and gets both Kendrick Carmouche and the rail draw, both of which bode well. His wire-to-wire score off the bench last time out was a good one, and it sure seems like he’ll be the one they have to catch; #2 NOT FOR HIRE (3-1): Had an adventurous trip last time out and finished a distant fourth. He wants to be much closer to the pace than he was on that occasion, and he’d move forward considerably with a cleaner trip.

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $794.50

I usually find trainer Ken McPeek a breath of fresh air, and I respect him a great deal, but I think he got something wrong at this week’s Racing and Gaming Conference. At one of the event’s panels, he suggested changing the Triple Crown and running the Kentucky Derby, Preakness, and Belmont on the first Saturdays of May, June, and July.

I wish I had more space to expound, but I’ll do my best: The Triple Crown isn’t supposed to be easy. It’s supposed to be hard, and it’s not the fault of those races that horses aren’t bred to run three times in five weeks anymore. Even if you think modern thoroughbreds aren’t more fragile than their predecessors, the most important races some will run are one furlong against a clock at 2-year-old sales, which is ridiculous. Furthermore, as other panelists pointed out, Triple Crown viewership and wagering numbers are very, very strong.

Don’t change the races. Go back to “breeding to race” instead of “racing to breed” or, even worse, “breeding to sell.” That won’t just benefit the Triple Crown. It’ll benefit racing as a whole.

THURSDAY’S RESULTS: My action was cancelled when a Saratoga monsoon rolled in and forced the sixth off the turf.

FRIDAY’S PLAY: We’re going to try the Grand Slam again, as I think the first two legs are pretty wide-open and there’s a horse I like enough to single in the payoff leg. My $5 ticket starting in the sixth goes as follows: 4,8 with 1,4,6 with 5 with 6.

TOTAL WAGERED: $30.

SARATOGA SELECTIONS AND ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Will Not Be Swayed, Race 8
Longshot: Dontlookbackatall, Race 9

R1

Honoree
Newlyn
Head of Plains entry

#7 HONOREE (3-1): Saw his debut rained off the turf, which makes it a throw-out because he’s bred up and down to love the lawn. He should improve with experience and his desired surface in the Friday opener; #6 NEWLYN (8-1): Debuts for George Weaver, which is already a significant positive given how hot that barn has been this summer. His dam is a half-sister to Grade 1-placed router Normandy Invasion, who did his best work going two turns; HEAD OF PLAINS ENTRY (2-1): #1A CAROLINE ST. BEAT is the half of the entry to watch here in his unveiling for Miguel Clement. His dam was a multiple stakes winner on turf, and that mare is one of several stakes winners in a very strong female family.

R2

Invictus
Dreamlike
The Boondocker

#4 INVICTUS (9/5): Is one of a few runners today taking a big drop in class for aggressive trainer Brad Cox. His last-out effort wasn’t a good one, but stretching out to a mile may help him, and he also adds blinkers in this event; #2 DREAMLIKE (8/5): Ran in some big races back in 2023, when he was second in the Grade 1 Pennsylvania Derby and third in the Grade 2 Wood Memorial (behind Lord Miles, a horse you may have heard me mention once or twice). His efforts this year, however, have been far from impressive, and perhaps the drop into restricted claiming company wakes him up; #5 THE BOONDOCKER (7/2): Ships up from Monmouth for Chad Brown after breaking his maiden two back and running third against optional claimers last time out. He’s going against older here, though, and this race came up pretty strong for the level.

R3

Baby Sassicaia
Here’syourtrouble
Employeeofthemonth

#3 BABY SASSICAIA (3-1): Came off a long layoff to be third at Gulfstream, and while that effort was disappointing, that was her first start in over a year. It also helps that that day’s winner came back to repeat at next asking against winners; #5 HERE’SYOURTROUBLE (3-1): Comes back to the maiden claiming ranks after a clunker against straight maidens downstate in her first start for Linda Rice. This is almost certainly the right level for her, and a repeat of her two-back effort at Keeneland would make her a major player; #6 EMPLOYEEOFTHEMONTH (7/2): Disappointed as a heavy favorite at Finger Lakes last time out and didn’t appear to have much in the way of excuses. However, she’s relatively inexperienced, with just two starts under her belt, so perhaps she can move forward beneath new rider Irad Ortiz Jr.

R4

Strictly Taboo
Weekend Rags
Just Add Water

#1 STRICTLY TABOO (4-1): Has never run a bad race in three tries at this route, and she goes third off the layoff in this spot. She was very wide last time out in a race with a much-the-best winner, and she should save much more ground from the rail here; #3 WEEKEND RAGS (5-1): Was second in the race my top pick exits and goes first off the claim for Linda Rice. She hasn’t won in a while, but she’s a consistent sort that always seems to fire, and this barn does very well with new acquisitions; #6 JUST ADD WATER (4-1): Steps up in class for the Chad Summers barn, which has enjoyed plenty of success at this stand. She’s 2-for-2 at the Spa, retains the services of Jose Ortiz, and could still have room to improve in her fourth career outing.

R5

Rice entry
Suspiciously Named
Bermuda Triangle

#1 VINTAGE VINO (5/2): Is approaching “now or never” territory in his eighth start, but there are some things to like here. He probably went too far last time out and cuts back to a one-mile route he should appreciate. Given his tactical speed, he could work out an ideal stalking trip; #6 SUSPICIOUSLY NAMED (10-1): Was aggressively ridden last time out and ran second in his first start going two turns on turf. There may be some stamina issues here, but it’s also possible he makes the lead, gets comfortable, and proves tough to catch at a nice price; #4 BERMUDA TRIANGLE (10-1): Gets a few big changes here, including the ultimate one (he’ll run as a first-time gelding). He also goes back to the turf, which he’s bred to love, for new trainer Bill Morey, and I’m willing to give him one more shot on that surface.

R6

Pride of the Union
Arctic Beast
Froutien

#4 PRIDE OF THE UNION (9/2): Is a tepid nod in a wide-open 2-year-old maiden race. This Jorge Abreu trainee has a few solid drills on his sheet and is a full brother to two multiple winners, so he may have some potential; #8 ARCTIC BEAST (5-1): Sold for $275,000 at auction and has a right to be a runner. He’s a son of Yaupon and a multiple stakes-winning mare, and he gets an agreeable outside draw in his unveiling; #3 FROUTIEN (7/2): Hammered for $700,000 earlier this year despite a modest pedigree and debuts for Todd Pletcher and John Velazquez, but I have some doubts. Pletcher’s Monmouth horses are his second string, and that’s where this one has been. It’s possible he’s got talent, but other runners at better prices interest me more.

R7

Golden Irish
That’s Funny
Feasible

#4 GOLDEN IRISH (3-1): Did a lot of the dirty work setting a fast pace last time out and was run down by a horse that’s got some talent. There’s other speed in here, to be sure, but I don’t think she’ll have to work that hard early on again, and if that’s the case, she may have more in the tank late; #6 THAT’S FUNNY (10-1): Comes back to a dirt sprint, which she’s shown is her desired route of ground. The last-out turf experiment was a dud, but she has back races that are good enough to win this, and it’s intriguing to see Paco Lopez hop aboard; #1 FEASIBLE (5-1): Has had some gate issues and draws the rail, which isn’t the best spot for a horse like that. However, she ran well to be third last time out in the same race my top pick exits. If she’s able to break cleanly here, she’ll have a big chance in what hits me as a pretty wide-open event.

R8

Will Not Be Swayed
Starlight Dancer
Boxed Wine

#5 WILL NOT BE SWAYED (2-1): Isn’t a favorite I’m in love with picking, as she’s trying two turns for the first time on a major class drop. However, this field is, to put it kindly, not a strong one. Her prior turf races are simply significantly better than those of her counterparts, and if she runs anything close to those figures here, the race is for second; #7 STARLIGHT DANCER (3-1): Has turned a corner in her last three starts, with a win and two seconds since Kendrick Carmouche hopped back aboard. She ran well to miss by just a half-length last time out at this level, and Carmouche has been riding very, very well this summer; #10 BOXED WINE (8-1): Doesn’t draw a great post here, but she drops in for a tag for the first time since October and has had some quirky trips lately. The far-outside draw makes this a tough ask, but in a field of horses that are tough to recommend, at least there’s some reason for optimism.

R9

Little Prankster (MTO)
Future Is Now
Dontlookbackatall

#6 FUTURE IS NOW (6/5): Faces a strong field in the Smart And Fancy, but is one of the premier female turf sprinters in the country and is very much the horse to beat. She always seems to fire, she loves Saratoga, and she has tactical speed without necessarily needing the lead to run well; #7 DONTLOOKBACKATALL (15-1): Hasn’t run well of late, but she’s also had some layoffs that indicate she’s been dealing with some issues. Her 2024 form was very, very good, and she beat my top pick in last year’s Grade 3 Caress. She’ll need to find that form, but if she does, she’s got a big chance at a big price; #4 ELLEN JAY (3-1): Has been off 10 months but has been working well at Churchill ahead of her return to the races. She won three in a row last year before going to the sidelines, and this daughter of Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint heroine Covfefe merits respect if she’s ready to run.

R10

Dormello
Solo Jim
Undisputed

#2 DORMELLO (4-1): Debuts for a barn whose runners tend to need a race, but this is a mess of a finale with several contenders drawing terrible outside posts. Add in a few very solid five-furlong gate drills and a solid pedigree, and I think this one could win if he’s ready to fire; #8 SOLO JIM (7/2): Came flying late to be second beaten less than a length in the slop last time out, and given his terrible start, you can argue he was best that day. The post isn’t ideal, and neither is his late-running style out of the chute, but it’s also possible he’s just better than this bunch; #4 UNDISPUTED (9/2): Was third behind Iron Dome last time out, and that one romped again over winners at next asking. This figures to be a significantly softer spot, and he draws well by comparison to some of the other contenders.

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $794.50

We’re coming up on the Grade 1 Alabama, which headlines Saturday’s Saratoga program. It’s one of my favorite races of the summer. In addition to the prestige, I’m a massive fan of the 1 1/4-mile distance, which many of these 3-year-old fillies will never see again.

I wish there were more races that rewarded stamina in the ways the Alabama does. For instance, I was a big fan of the Personal Ensign being contested at that 10-furlong distance until 2012 (a younger Andrew saw Beautiful Pleasure, Pompeii, and Storm Flag Flying win at that route). Alas, the breed is going the other way, and it has been for quite a while.

WEDNESDAY’S RESULTS: Another day, another second-place finish. Nonna Lynne ran well in the feature, but couldn’t quite get the job done. I dropped $20.

THURSDAY’S PLAY: #5 SCHWARZENEGGER would’ve been my best bet of the day in the pick box if I was sure he’d run in the sixth (he’s cross-entered in Saturday’s Skidmore). If he runs here, though, my action flows through him. I’ll play $8 exactas with him on top of #2 BELGIAN and #9 GREEN SCREEN, and $4 exactas using him above #4 GYPSY ART and #7 AUGUSTINIAN. Finally, I’ll single him in a cold $10 double starting in the sixth that ends with #3 FRIEND OFTHE DEVIL in the seventh.

TOTAL WAGERED: $34.

SARATOGA SELECTIONS AND ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Enlighten, Race 9
Longshot: Riyadh Moon, Race 2

R1

Danzit
Bon Vivant
Absolute Honor

#3 DANZIT (9/5): Is bred up and down for two turns and gets that trip in the Thursday lid-lifter. Her return off a long layoff downstate wasn’t bad, and I’m expecting a step forward for this one-time $1.1 million purchase; #2 BON VIVANT (4-1): Is another stretching out in distance whose pedigree screams that she wants more ground. Her two-back effort going seven furlongs was the best race she’s run so far, and her tactical speed should put her in a good spot; #6 ABSOLUTE HONOR (3-1): Had things all her own way last time out but was third in a pretty slow race for this route. She may once again make the lead here, but she may have to improve off of her last-out effort, and I’m not sure that’s likely.

R2

Tizmarkus
Riyadh Moon
Golden Symphony

#2 TIZMARKUS (3-1): Returns to what’s probably the right level after losing all chance at the start last time out. He’s been gelded since that clunker, and the return to a one-turn route of ground should also suit him; #5 RIYADH MOON (8-1): Faltered after setting the pace last time out, but his two and three-back efforts at Monmouth weren’t bad. I actually think he’s better coming from a bit off the pace, and his ability to do that may make him a factor at a price; #1 GOLDEN SYMPHONY (8/5): Has won two of three since being claimed by Brad Cox, but I’m skeptical at a short price. He comes up in class and sat a picture-perfect trip last time out against a suspect group. I think he has company up front here, and he hasn’t proven he can handle a hotly-contested pace yet.

R3

Our Starry Night
In the Dark
Leading Role

#4 OUR STARRY NIGHT (2-1): Has shown speed twice at Churchill and cuts back to a sprint, which seems like his best game. For a turf sprint, there doesn’t seem to be a ton of other early speed signed on, which means this one could get comfortable and forget to stop; #2 IN THE DARK (7/2): Was second in his debut at Monmouth and has since moved barns. Joel Rosario sees fit to ride, and it’s certainly possible he moves forward at second asking; #5 LEADING ROLE (6-1): Goes back to the turf, and while his debut on the lawn wasn’t great, it’s safe to assume something went wrong because we didn’t see him for nearly a year. He’s bred up and down for the grass, and it wouldn’t shock me if he improves.

R4

Ranger Battalion
Shifty Gold
Bob’s Carrot

#2 RANGER BATTALION (7/2): Seems to have put things together in his last two starts, and his last-out win was a very good one. He crushed high-priced claimers by more than five lengths that day, and while this is technically a move up in class, I don’t think this is a super-strong optional claiming event; #7 SHIFTY GOLD (4-1): Comes up from Monmouth for Chad Brown, cuts back in distance, and drops in class. He’s 2-for-2 going one turn on the dirt, and his sheet looks a lot better if you can forgive the last-out clunker; #4 BOB’S CARROT (9/2): Broke through with a wire-to-wire score sprinting at Churchill and tries winners for the first time here. He added blinkers that day, and he sports the “two-back bullet” work pattern that I love to see on Steve Asmussen trainees.

R5

True Connection
Gotta Guy
Dark Vector

#2 TRUE CONNECTION (7/2): Feels like the main speed, which is always dangerous in races out of the Wilson chute. He broke through two back in his first start for Brad Cox, and two turns was probably just a bit too far for him last time (especially given how wide he was early); #6 GOTTA GUY (9/2): Has a history of gate issues, but ran well to be second at a price last time out in the same race my top pick exits. The one time he got out of the gate cleanly, he won, so if Jose Ortiz can ensure a fair start, he could have a big chance; #3 DARK VECTOR (4-1): Hasn’t been seen in over a year and a half, but he’s been working steadily since April for Keri Brion, who can win with comebackers like this. This is a big class drop for him, but if he’s ready to run, he’s a contender.

R6

It’s Our Time (MTO)
Schwarzenegger
Belgian

#5 SCHWARZENEGGER (8/5): Sold for nearly a million dollars across the street last summer despite a pretty modest bottom-side pedigree, and he’s been working very, very fast ahead of his debut. Wesley Ward’s one of the best with first-time starters, and this one sure seems ready to go; #2 BELGIAN (8-1): Sold for $185,000 at auction earlier his year and has been working very well for George Weaver, who’s extremely sharp with first-out turf sprinters. His bottom-side pedigree has plenty of class to it, and it wouldn’t surprise me if he’s cranked up right away; #9 GREEN SCREEN (8-1): Has a very classy turf pedigree on both sides, being by Oscar Performance and out of a stakes-winning mare. That mare, Penjade, comes from another mare that threw, among others, French Group 1 winner Wonderful Tonight. He may be at his best going a bit longer, but it wouldn’t shock me if he’s talented enough to factor going shorter.

R7

Friend Ofthe Devil
Moe Eighty Eight
George Briggs

#3 FRIEND OFTHE DEVIL (7/5): Stretches out to two turns for the first time in the Thursday feature, but four magical words apply here: “Lone speed, inner turf.” He’s never been headed in three tries on the grass, and while the distance is a question mark, if he gets comfortable early, it may not matter; #8 MOE EIGHTY EIGHT (15-1): Didn’t break well last time out, but he rallied to be second behind a very impressive winner. Blinkers go on here, as does Joel Rosario, and I think we may see a step forward at a big price; #5 GEORGE BRIGGS (8/5): Was third against a good group in a listed stakes race at Gulfstream last time out. We haven’t seen him since, and he’s been working down at Monmouth almost exclusively since a break of nearly two months in May and June. Monmouth isn’t as much of a red flag as it used to be, but I’ve got questions about a horse that may be a short price.

R8

Nantz
Preposition
Levitating

#1 NANTZ (6-1): Is a tepid top pick in a mess of a maiden claimer. At a minimum, he’s got some excuses for his last-out clunker (being wide out of the chute is never a good thing), and it’s possible one turn is his best game; #10 PREPOSITION (4-1): Didn’t run a step last time out in his first try going two turns, but he has a couple of one-turn efforts that aren’t bad compared to the rest of this bunch. Irad Ortiz Jr. rides, and a return to form gives this one a big chance; #6 LEVITATING (5-1): Goes first off the claim for Tom Amoss, and he ran OK when third going a mile at Churchill. A repeat of that effort may be good enough to top a field that just doesn’t bring much to the table.

R9

Enlighten
Indy Magic (MTO)
Mo Kreesa

#3 ENLIGHTEN (9/5): Did everything but win last time in a weirdly-run race that many others in here also exit. Given a more conventional setup, he hits me as the one to beat first off the claim for Tom Morley (whose numbers with similar stock are excellent); #6 MO KREESA (15-1): Merits a long look as this race’s possible only early speed. He does come up in class, but his last-out effort was a good one and he should sit his desired trip at a big price; #7 STEADFAST RESOLVE (7/2): Cuts back after running several races at marathon distances. His late-2024 form at similar routes led to back-to-back wins, and his best could get the money here, but I wonder if he needs more pace than what’s signed on here.

R10

Naguile
Deemer
Blame It On K J

#7 NAGUILE (2-1): Hits me as the more likely winner of what looks like a two-horse race in the finale. He ran well to be third in his debut, and that’s sometimes tricky for horses being unveiled at two-turn routes. I’m expecting a significant step forward for the Clement family; #10 DEEMER (6/5): Does take a drop in class, but note that he comes in out of already-restricted state-bred races, so it’s not as big a drop as it might appear. First-time Lasix does help, and he’s run well here before, but the far-outside post on the inner turf is a big problem; #5 BLAME IT ON K J (15-1): Lost all chance at the break in his debut, but I liked him a bit that day given his all-turf pedigree and I’ll give him another shot at second asking. Two turns shouldn’t be a problem given those bloodlines, and at least he passed some horses late after all the trouble at the start.

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $814.50

NYRA has done a great job minimizing the use of the Wilson chute…right up until this week. We’ll see nine races carded for the chute between now and Saturday, with three each day on Friday and Saturday.

Maybe I’m turning into a grumpy old man, but I want as much two-turn dirt racing as possible. There’s something special about starting and finishing in front of a huge crowd on the apron at one of the country’s premier racing venues, and showing off horses with stamina is never a bad thing. As I’ve said in past years, I worry that some cards rely on the chute too much, especially since most off-the-turf races carded at a mile or longer wind up there, too.

SUNDAY’S RESULTS: My Grand Slam was alive for $10 going into the Quick Call, but heavy favorite Governor Sam was run down. I dropped $45.

WEDNESDAY’S PLAY: On a day where my betting opinions just won’t be that strong, let’s head to the eighth race, the Statue of Liberty Division of the New York Stallion Series. I’m of the opinion the Suzie O’Cain wasn’t a great race, so I’ll have a $20 win ticket on #8 NONNA LYNNE. Unlike others, she doesn’t exit that race, and I thought her maiden-breaking score was sharp.

TOTAL WAGERED: $20.

SARATOGA SELECTIONS AND ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Melle Mel, Race 7
Longshot: Zelena, Race 3

R1

Walk the Warrior
Evie’s Prince
Quick Master

#2 WALK THE WARRIOR (9/2): Has never been out of the money in seven U.S. tries and didn’t run badly when third in a similar stakes last time out. That day’s runner-up came right back to win, and I like that he has some tactical speed but doesn’t need the lead; #4 EVIE’S PRINCE (6-1): Hasn’t won in a while, but to be fair, some of those starts have been against much better horses. He won the Michael Walsh last year, and a return to his two-back form (when he was a sharp second in a Grade 1) would give him a big chance; #9 QUICK MASTER (8-1): Led briefly here last month before fading to finish third at this route of ground. Regular rider Graham Watters is one of the best jump jockeys around, and he hops back aboard for top steeplechase trainer Jack Fisher.

R2

My Noble Knight
Unlimitedpotential
Pineapple Man

#6 MY NOBLE KNIGHT (9/5): Was a good second behind a solid horse in Gilmore and cuts back to the Wilson chute. He’s shown he can pass others late, and it feels like he may be the lone closer in this spot; #5 UNLIMITEDPOTENTIAL (8/5): Is a six-time winner that hasn’t run a truly bad race this season. His best race would make him the one to catch, but his local record isn’t the greatest (that win last summer was against a putrid field), and if he’s so well-meant, why does this barn also enter #4 MARGIN OF AIR?; #3 PINEAPPLE MAN (6-1): Capitalized on a perfect front-running trip to find the winner’s circle last time out, and he’s shown he’s tough when that circumstance arises. I tend to prefer horses cutting back to the one-mile trip, and Kendrick Carmouche sees fit to ride back.

R3

My Devine One
Zelena
She’s Country

#5 MY DEVINE ONE (9/2): Didn’t do much running as a heavy favorite last time out, but I’m banking on an improved performance here. That race was initially carded for turf, and she gets that surface here. Add in that Bill Mott’s horses usually move forward second time out, and I’m not getting off the train yet; #2 ZELENA (12-1): Comes from another patient barn, but she’s bred up and down to be a very good turf horse. She’s by Kitten’s Joy and out of an English Channel mare that’s kin to several very classy routers, and if she’s ready first time out, I think she could get a big piece of this; #4 SHE’S COUNTRY (5/2): May go favored for George Weaver, but I have some doubts. There isn’t a ton of pedigree here, and I don’t see a workout longer than four furlongs on her sheet. Perhaps she’s well-meant, but at her likely price, I can’t back her.

R4

Gun Party
Drake’s Passage
Eliminate

#5 GUN PARTY (4/5): Looks tough to go against after a sharp last-out score in Kentucky. He moves up in class on paper, but it sure doesn’t seem like this race came up very tough for the level, and the tactical speed he showed last time out is a big plus; #1 DRAKE’S PASSAGE (3-1): Hasn’t run well of late, but he hits me as the lone true “speed horse” in this event. That’s sometimes very dangerous coming out of the chute, and such a setup could mean a return to his best form, which might be enough to win this; #3 ELIMINATE (5-1): Takes a big jump up the class ladder, but does so after two wins in his last three starts. If there’s any pace in here, this deep closer is the one that figures to benefit the most.

R5

Flying P entry
Fromanothamutha
Big Gain

FLYING P ENTRY (7/5): Both #2 STOLEN BASE and #2B BRESLAU are major players in here. The former has come to hand in his last two starts downstate, while the latter looks a lot better if you draw a line through the last-out clunker over a sloppy track he almost certainly hated; #3 FROMANOTHAMUTHA (9/2): Hasn’t won in a while but goes back to the Ray Handal barn, where he did some good work back in 2024. His last win, in fact, was in his last start for that outfit. They know him well, blinkers go back on, and Irad Ortiz Jr. sees fit to ride; #4 BIG GAIN (15-1): Will be a big price and needs to improve on speed figures, but he looks like one of only a few closers in this spot. He was claimed last time out by Rudy Rodriguez, whose record is a bit deceiving. He’s only won twice this season to date, but his runners have finished second or third 14 times.

R6

Eighty Gold (MTO)
Pazz the Soy Sauce
Pandemic Hero

#3 PAZZ THE SOY SAUCE (8/5): May be a hair overbet at or near the morning line price, but he does hit me as a likely candidate to improve second off the bench. He didn’t miss by much last time out, and any sort of a step forward would make him tough, but do demand value; #5 PANDEMIC HERO (9/2): Didn’t fire against stakes company last time out and returns to both the right level and the right surface. His two and three-back efforts were both solid, and the switch to Jose Ortiz is a big one; #7 ORIE (2-1): Came flying late to be beaten a head last time out. It’s worth noting, however, that that race fell apart pace-wise, and the forced move away from Flavien Prat (who’s serving a suspension after the Zulu Kingdom situation) doesn’t help him.

R7

Melle Mel
She’s Complicated
Our Lady Peace

#7 MELLE MEL (6/5): Takes a massive class drop to run here after a decent fourth in the slop last month. It wasn’t too long ago that she was fourth in a stakes race at Gulfstream, and anything close to her last-out or two-back efforts probably crushes this bunch; #6 SHE’S COMPLICATED (6-1): Is another dropping in class, though she does so for aggressive connections. She may have needed the last-out effort, which was her first race since April, and Jose Ortiz sticking with her inspires some confidence; #2 OUR LADY PEACE (9/2): Ran second in her dirt debut last time out at Gulfstream, and she dueled for most of that effort before settling for second money. She may not be alone on the lead, but the filly that may have been named for the rock band bearing the same moniker has also shown an ability to rate, which could come in handy.

R8

Stone Smuggler (MTO)
Nonna Lynne
Disco Star

#8 NONNA LYNNE (4-1): Steps up into stakes company for the Statue of Liberty, but she rated behind a pretty moderate pace last time and got the job done. Given her relative inexperience, she may have room to move forward, and she might not have to improve much to beat these; #1 DISCO STAR (5/2): Ran well to be second in the Suzie O’Cain and might be favored here because of that. Two things scare me, though. Closers drawing the rail often need to get lucky trip-wise, and I just think she’s better sprinting than routing; #3 TRAIL OF GOLD (4-1): May have lost the Suzie O’Cain in the opening strides, so I won’t hold that clunker against her too much. The win two back was a very good race, and she could contend if she gets back to that form.

R9

Celebrity Quest (MTO)
Keto Drink (AE)
Bint Mischief

#12 KETO DRINK (2-1): Needs two scratches to run but would be a force if she draws into the Wednesday finale. She made up a lot of ground in her debut, and this barn isn’t known for having first-time starters ready to roll. Expect improvement if she goes postward; #4 BINT MISCHIEF (4-1): Debuts for Will Walden and is bred to be a very good one. This daughter of Into Mischief boasts a world-class female family, with a dam that’s a half-sister to Australian Group 1 winner Pride Of Dubai and a third dam that threw Group 1 winner Rafha (the dam of Group 1 winner Invincible Spirit); #6 DELIGHTFUL DARLING (3-1): Has suffered a pair of pretty tough beats and has an experience edge over most of her rivals. She gets back to the turf here, and her debut saw her do lots of dirty work up front going short on the lawn at Churchill.

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $859.50

My once-a-year reminder about a unique-to-NYRA wager comes today. The multi-race exotic menu can seem overwhelming at times, and there’s one bet that can get lost in the shuffle. That’s the Grand Slam, which isn’t a great play some days but is a fantastic wager on others. For those unfamiliar, it’s a four-race bet where you must pick at least one horse that finishes third or better in the first three legs, then pick the winner of the fourth leg.

I love playing it from time to time, provided certain parameters are followed. First, have a horse you like enough in the payoff leg to single. Next, don’t go greater than three-deep in any of the first three legs. Going against either of those principles means you aren’t getting the most from your bet (since you’re assured of a lot of losing combinations). If you can play a skinny ticket with a single on the end, though, it can act as an enhanced-value win bet.

SATURDAY’S RESULTS: Most of my action got cancelled when Trust Fund scratched out of the opener. I was left with a $5 double, which went up in smoke in the fourth.

SUNDAY’S PLAY: With a lead-in like the one I wrote, you have to know where I’m going. My $5 Grand Slam ticket starting in the sixth goes as follows: 4,6,12 with 3 with 1,4,8 with 9. The best-case scenario is that a few prices hit the board in the first three legs, which will allow me to potentially extract value from #9 GOVERNOR SAM in the ninth.

TOTAL WAGERED: $45.

SARATOGA SELECTIONS AND ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Mr. Ripple, Race 2
Longshot: Big Brown Delivers, Race 6

R1

Chillax
St. Elias entry
Fun to Tap

#4 CHILLAX (5/2): Gets a tepid nod in an opener out of the chute where I simply don’t have a strong opinion. However, he ran well when second behind a perfect-trip winner last time out going a bit longer, and I tend to prefer horses cutting back to the chute over horses stretching out; ST. ELIAS ENTRY (2-1): #1A WORTHY CHARGE is the one people will bet, and he ran well to be third beaten just a length in his unveiling. Chad Brown has exceptional success with horses adding distance, and he’ll have every right to improve, but the outside post is not ideal; #3 FUN TO TAP (7/2): Has been off nine months, but ran well as a 2-year-old and adds Lasix for his return. He’s been working steadily for Todd Pletcher, attracts Irad Ortiz Jr., and is bred to get better as he gets older.

R2

Mr. Ripple
Le Gris
Leftembehind

#2 MR. RIPPLE (5/2): Got his first win since 2022 with a runaway score at Finger Lakes, and he runs for a tag for the first time ever in this spot. This barn has caught fire of late, and it’s possible the addition of blinkers last time out woke him up; #1 LE GRIS (2-1): Takes an absolutely massive class drop and may be favored, but I have some doubts. His last win came in February of 2024, in a race rained off the turf, and his last-out effort was a real clunker; #6 LEFTEMBEHIND (9/2): Is another that hasn’t won in a while and takes a drop. However, he’s a closer in a race with some early speed signed on, which makes him a candidate to be going the right way as the field turns for home.

R3

Caribbean Wind (MTO)
Tap to Mischief
Waralo

#4 TAP TO MISCHIEF (7/2): Comes back to the turf, and while he didn’t run badly on dirt last time out, this feels like the surface he wants. His debut going short on turf was very good, and he may have moved forward since that July 2024 effort; #5 WARALO (2-1): Is 2-for-2 since going to the grass in May and figures to be prominent early. He may not be alone up top, but he did show an ability to stalk a bit in his two-back score downstate; #6 IRISH GENT (3-1): Hasn’t raced since November of 2023, when he showed some precocity before going to the sidelines. A return to that form makes him a player, but this barn keeping him at Monmouth leading up to his return is a genuine question mark.

R4

Final Score
Boss Henry
Heeere’s Johnny

#5 FINAL SCORE (5/2): Made up a lot of ground at first asking, which is sometimes a difficult thing for 2-year-olds to do. That was supposed to be a turf race. He gets on grass here and also stretches out to two turns, which his pedigree says he should love; #2 BOSS HENRY (9/2): Debuts for Chad Brown, who’s on a real hot streak with 2-year-olds on the turf. His dam was stakes-placed on the lawn, and offspring of Gun Runner can usually run on anything, so he merits respect; #3 HEEERE’S JOHNNY (3-1): Probably lost all chance at the break in his off-the-turf debut, and his pedigree says he wants the green stuff. Given experience and the move to what feels like his desired surface, I’m expecting a step forward at second asking.

R5

Essential Coffee
Memorized
Carmel Coast

#5 ESSENTIAL COFFEE (4-1): Was DQ’d after hitting the wire clear by eight in her debut, then folded after contesting fast fractions in the Debutante. I think you can argue the last-out clunker was a bounce, and that a return to her first-out form would make her a handful; #4 MEMORIZED (3-1): Has reason to be a runner, being a half-sister to Grade 1 winner Zandon, among others. She sold for $900,000 at Keeneland last September, and while the pedigree says she wants longer than this distance, she’s a contender if Brown has her ready to run; #3 CARMEL COAST (5-1): Isn’t just a hunch play from here in Northern California. She’s another with strong bloodlines, and she fired a bullet two works back on July 28th. My one hesitation is that the bottom side of her pedigree hints she may be at her best on turf, not dirt.

R6

Spirit of the Law
Big Brown Delivers
Powered by Coal

#12 SPIRIT OF THE LAW (5/2): Runs for a tag for the first time, and while the far outside post is a problem, he should get an ideal setup. He wants pace in front of him, he should get it, and he feels like one of only a few that’s shown he can pass others late; #6 BIG BROWN DELIVERS (15-1): Merits a long look at a price second off the bench. He didn’t break well in his return, but still salvaged fourth behind a horse that beat winners at next asking. I think he moves forward here, and if he does, he’ll have a shot to light up the tote; #4 POWERED BY COAL (9/2): Took a big step forward last time out, when he led most of the way and got passed late. He seems to have responded since a drop in class two back, and the rider switch to Irad Ortiz Jr. is a big one.

R7

My Two Sophia’s
Valentine Gift
Rodriguez entry

#3 MY TWO SOPHIA’S (2-1): Came flying late last time out and missed by just a neck. Irad hops aboard for a barn he doesn’t ride for much, and the new dimension she showed last time out should help given an abundance of early speed on paper; #9 VALENTINE GIFT (5-1): Comes back to the claiming ranks here, and she didn’t run badly last time out against state-bred allowance foes. She rallied to be fourth that day despite a poor break, and while she hasn’t won in a while, she’s another that figures to benefit from the likely race shape; RODRIGUEZ ENTRY (6-1): I prefer #1A MOONLIT WEEKEND, though #1 DANNEEL has a chance to run well, too. The former was a two-back winner downstate and returns to what’s probably the correct level.

R8

Cut the Cord (MTO)
Conman
Ocala Dream

#8 CONMAN (2-1): Takes a big drop for aggressive connections that have run him against open company for the past two years. At his best, he was a stakes winner at Woodbine, and his last-out effort saw him finish fourth behind a next-out winner in a swiftly-run event; #4 OCALA DREAM (12-1): Returns to what’s clearly his preferred surface and could factor in this one at a price. He returned to this level two back, but both of his last two races have been rained off the turf. Assuming this stays on the lawn, I think we’ll see the best of him here, and that’s pretty good; #1 SLAPINTHEFACE (5-1): Tried open company last time out, and in addition to probably being outclassed, he didn’t benefit from the wide trip he got. He should get a chance to save ground from the rail here, and regular rider Manny Franco is back on.

R9

Governor Sam
Gabaldon
Ancient World

#9 GOVERNOR SAM (1-1): May be the biggest favorite of the day, and for good reason. He comes in off of an excellent score in the Grade 3 Quick Call at this route, a race where he showed he doesn’t necessarily need the lead. I can’t go against him in the Grade 3 Mahony; #8 GABALDON (8-1): Hasn’t run since March, when he did a lot of heavy lifting up front and finished third in the Texas Glitter. He’s been gelded since that race, and there’s a chance he finds himself on the lead going into the turn; #7 ANCIENT WORLD (10-1): Hadn’t run a bad one before his clunker in the Maxfield at Churchill. He tries turf for the first time, but he sports a pretty flashy turf work on July 20th that indicates he may like it. At a minimum, he should be going well late.

R10

Tuscan Gold
Chileno
Pandagate

#1 TUSCAN GOLD (7/2): Was fourth in last year’s Grade 1 Preakness as a 3-year-old before going to the sidelines, but he did not run well in his 2025 debut. However, I think he needed that race, and that he’ll benefit from getting back to two turns in the Sunday nightcap; #7 CHILENO (6-1): Has run second three times this season, and he’s run well at Saratoga in the past. He’s shown he can go two turns effectively, and he’s got the tactical speed to sit an ideal stalking trip; #6 PANDAGATE (4-1): Gets back to the track for the first time since September, and his best is quite good. He’s won three stakes races against New York-breds, but I question if two turns is truly his best game, and this is far from a bad field for the level.