BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,000

My opening day is Wednesday, as I’m off to a late start for the best possible reason. I’ve just gotten married and returned from a wonderful honeymoon in Europe. We had a blast, and judging by the weather that hit upstate New York over the past week, I picked a decent time to stay away from the betting windows!

For those new to The Pink Sheet or my website: In this section, I start with a mythical $1,000 bankroll and look to build it up as much as I can between now and Labor Day. Last summer’s season was my best one ever, and we’ll look to build off of that success starting on Wednesday. Let’s get to it!

WEDNESDAY’S PLAY: I’ll head to the eighth, where I think there may be some value in the two outside horses. I’ll key #8 GILMORE and #9 MY NOBLE KNIGHT in $4 exactas that use those two, #4 SYSTEMIC CHANGE, and #5 ALTERNATE REALITY underneath. I’ll also box my top two in additional $3 exactas for good measure.

TOTAL WAGERED: $30.

SARATOGA SELECTIONS AND ANALYSIS: JULY 16TH, 2025

Best Bet: Irrelevant, Race 2
Longshot: Private Flight, Race 7

R1

China Beach
Evie’s Prince
Blue Creek

#8 CHINA BEACH (5/2): Comes into the Jonathan Kiser off of three straight impressive wins and has beaten several of his opponents in prior spots. It seems like he’s come to hand for the Daltons of late, and anything close to his last three may make him tough to top; #1 EVIE’S PRINCE (3-1): Ran very well when second against Grade 1 company here last month, and he won at this level and route a season ago. It sure seems like he does his best running at the Spa, and he’ll likely have some pace to chase in here, too; #9 BLUE CREEK (9/2): Was second behind my top pick last time out and has yet to run a poor race over fences. He was stakes-placed on the flat back in 2023, so his current form isn’t a shock, and he may still have room to improve.

R2

Irrelevant
Beer Run
Snare

#5 IRRELEVANT (4-1): Has several things going for him ahead of his debut. His Penn National works merited a trip to Saratoga, and he sizzled a four-furlong bullet drill here last week. Add in that the experienced runners in here just haven’t shown much yet, and I’m very, very intrigued; #6 BEER RUN (5/2): May go off favored and isn’t totally illogical, but he’s starting to seem like a money-burner. He’s gotten bet in most of his starts, yet hasn’t found ways to get the job done against groups that weren’t that tough. Given the likely price, I’ll take a mild stance against him; #1 SNARE (12-1): Did show some improvement off the bench last time out, when he rallied to finish third downstate at a big price. His debut on turf in November wasn’t awful, and unlike several of these, at least there’s reason to think we may not have seen the best of him yet.

R3

Miles and Miles
Just Clarity
Aero Star

#1 MILES AND MILES (2-1): Takes a significant drop first off the claim for Brad Cox, who wins at a remarkable rate with similar stock. He was second behind a runaway winner at the $50,000 level last time, and he has enough early speed to make the rail draw an asset; #5 JUST CLARITY (8-1): Is one of only a few in here that’s shown an interest in passing others late. He probably needs to step forward to factor here, but the presence of Flavien Prat is a plus and the class drop also works in his favor; #3 AERO STAR (5/2): Has one way of going and will almost certainly make his presence known out of the gate. He may be fastest early, but Irad Ortiz Jr. must work out a trip to overcome legitimate stamina concerns (not to mention other horses potentially going early, too).

R4

Iron Dome
Undisputed
Shakeitforthebird

#5 IRON DOME (8/5): Gets one more chance from me stretching back out to two turns for Steve Asmussen and Jose Ortiz. I love the “sharp work two back, maintenance work last time” pattern he has, and this seems like the right level and distance; #2 UNDISPUTED (3-1): Tries two turns for the first time and is bred for such a route. His two-back effort at Aqueduct, where he ran a good second behind a next-out winner, is the best race he’s run to date, and his tactical speed is a plus; #8 SHAKEITFORTHEBIRD (12-1): Almost certainly needed a race last time out off of a long layoff and should be sharper here. These connections don’t ship from Finger Lakes to see the sights, and his debut here last summer was far from bad.

R5

Cristobal
Super Dave
Wamo

#10 CRISTOBAL (6-1): Has to navigate a trip from a tricky post in his unveiling, but he’s bred to be a solid turf horse and the two-back work hints that he has some talent. Prat hops on for a trainer that’s quietly done solid work with first-time starters, too; #3 SUPER DAVE (3-1): Is a logical morning line favorite in his debut for Wesley Ward, who’s one of the best in the game with debuting runners. A few of his turf works are solid, and it wouldn’t be shocking if this one is ready to go right away; #7 WAMO (6-1): Hammered for $210,000 at auction last summer and debuts for Mike Maker. This barn’s firsters sometimes need a race, but this son of Yaupon is bred to be speedy and attracts Luis Saez after a string of solid drills.

R6

She’s Complicated (MTO)
Sassy Princess
Higher Force

#8 SASSY PRINCESS (8/5): Takes an absolutely massive class drop for aggressive connections in this spot, one I simply cannot ignore. She ran fourth against $80,000 claimers last time out, and now she’s in for less than half that price with Saez back aboard; #5 HIGHER FORCE (10-1): May finally get to run on turf after two straight events rained onto the main track. She’s out of a Langfuhr mare, which hints she’ll love the lawn, and this trainer/jockey combination is a formidable one; #1 TEMPLE CITY TABOO (5-1): Finished third against what was probably a better group last time out, but may encounter some opposition up front here. Blinkers coming off is an interesting move given the last-out tactics, and Jose Lezcano sees fit to ride back.

R7

Duration
Private Flight
Mainstream

#1 DURATION (2-1): Is a “hold your nose” pick in a race with several high-priced auction purchases that haven’t panned out to this point. This one missed by a head last time out downstate, but he’s at least shown an ability to pass others late, and that may make the difference; #6 PRIVATE FLIGHT (15-1): Didn’t do much running in his debut last month, but this barn’s horses often need a race to get going. The switch to John Velazquez is an interesting one, and he’s got a few works that indicate he may have enough talent to outrun his odds at second asking; #3 MAINSTREAM (9/5): Disappointed last time out as a 3/5 favorite and comes back at this route again. On paper, he’s probably the horse to beat, but isn’t it concerning that he’s yielded the lead late in all three of his prior starts? Given his status as a likely favorite, I’ll try to beat him.

R8

Gilmore
My Noble Knight
Alternate Reality

#8 GILMORE (4-1): Sports a local win and has been in good form since an early-season claim by Joe Sharp. He’ll likely get plenty of pace to run at, and I think he’ll be the one they have to hold off late; #9 MY NOBLE KNIGHT (6-1): Won two in a row at Oaklawn before a fourth-place finish last time out in a race where my top pick ran second. I don’t think he sat his desired trip that day, though. He may have been a bit too close to the front, and I think he’ll improve sitting back a bit more here; #5 ALTERNATE REALITY (7/2): Nearly got the job done on a significant class jump last time out, albeit in a race that got rained off the turf. This hits me as a tougher group, and the last-out surface was quirky, to say the least, but he’s another that should be moving the right way late.

R9

Kay Cup (MTO)
Trail of Gold
Mommy’s Turn

#3 TRAIL OF GOLD (9/2): Prevailed in a three-horse photo finish last time, and both of those opponents also show up here in the Suzie O’Cain. She’s won without Lasix before, which helps, and Irad sees fit to ride back when he likely had several options; #2 MOMMY’S TURN (7/2): Hasn’t run a bad race on turf yet and may still have room to improve for powerhouse connections. That last-out photo could have gone her way easily enough, and she’ll merit plenty of respect in this spot; #7 MARVELOUS MADISON (8-1): Won her debut here last summer before trying the Grade 2 Miss Grillo, after which she went to the sidelines for seven months. She may have needed her 2025 debut, and I’m expecting her to be much sharper in here second off the bench. If she is, she’s got a chance at a bit of a price.

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $87

We’ve got some housekeeping before we start the final bankroll section of the Belmont Stakes Racing Festival. First, Saturday’s action was cancelled when the Wonder Again was taken off the turf. Surface changes void all plays.

Secondly, when racing returns to Saratoga, you may notice I’ll be absent until mid-July. That’s for the best possible reason. I’m getting married later this month, and I’ll be in Europe on my honeymoon as the meet gets started. I’ll be back for the last 36 days of the meet, but as I’ve told several people, I can’t very well tell my wife, “we can’t go to the Sagrada Familia yet because I need to handicap the steeplechase race.”

(Side note: If anyone has some tips about Lisbon and/or Barcelona, fire away!)

SATURDAY’S RESULTS: See above.

SUNDAY’S PLAY: I’ll focus on the fifth, where I’ll let most of the bankroll ride on one of my favorite horses in training. That’s #8 AMUNDSON, who I’ll key on top of $20 exactas that use #1 THANK YOU JON/#1A HONORARY DEGREE, #7 BREW PUB, and #9 LOST IN ROME underneath. In addition, I’ll have a cold $10 double starting in the fifth linking Amundson with my longshot of the day, #1 BRACIOLE. Finally, as a “saver” of sorts, I’ll use the three “underneath” horses in $5 doubles that end with Braciole.

TOTAL WAGERED: $85.

SELECTIONS/ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Amundson, Race 5
Longshot: Braciole, Race 6

R1

Angel Gift
Gorrono Ranch
Bella Bello Banker

#6 ANGEL GIFT (5/2): Hammered for $300,000 at auction and is in this creatively-written race because she’s a New York-bred. She’s kin to Grade 1-winning 2-year-old Cave Rock, and the most recent workout downstate indicates she’s ready to go on debut; #3 GORRONO RANCH (3-1): Has an experience edge over most of this group and was a tough-luck second last time out after dueling from the gate. She once again figures to be prominent early, and it’s possible today is graduation day; #5 BELLA BELLO BANKER (10-1): Goes out for a barn whose horses often need a race or two to get going, but she sold for $105,000 earlier this year and has a few drills that indicate she may have some talent.

R2

Resilience
Digital Ops
Society Man

#5 RESILIENCE (5/2): Almost certainly needed his return race last time out after not running for the prior 11 months. He tried Grade 1 company twice a season ago, and if he gets back to the form that carried him to a win in the Grade 2 Wood Memorial, he’ll be tough in here; #1 DIGITAL OPS (9/5): Hasn’t run since mid-January, when he was a good second behind a next-out winner at Gulfstream. His best race makes him a player, but he’s no standout on speed figures and his likely price hits me as an underlay, so I’ll take a mild stand against him; #6 SOCIETY MAN (3-1): Chased my top pick when second in the Wood and won a graded race of his own in last year’s Grade 3 Matt Winn. I’m drawing a line through his last-out clunker, and there should be some pace in here to set up for his late kick

R3

Diblasi
Dark Assault
Just Moises

#5 DIBLASI (2-1): Was second from start to finish behind impressive barn buddy Ohoopee in his debut at Keeneland. That May 29th work jumps off the page, and a logical move forward at second asking could leave his foes with lots to do; #2 DARK ASSAULT (4-1): Has been working consistently ahead of his unveiling for Shug McGaughey and has a strong win-early pedigree. This son of Violence is out of a mare who was stakes-placed as a 2-year-old, and Irad Ortiz, Jr., sees fit to ride; #4 JUST MOISES (4-1): Sold for $350,000 earlier this year and has a very impressive pedigree page. He’s kin to stakes winner Varatti, and his bottom line trades back to third dam La Gueriere, who was very, very productive. Everything about him, though, says he probably wants longer than this distance.

R4

Light the Way (MTO)
Enlighten
Brown entry

#6 ENLIGHTEN (7/2): Has plenty of tactical speed, which is an asset at this route of ground on the inner turf. The winners of each of his last two races came back to repeat, and the Pletcher/Velazquez tag team always merits respect; BROWN ENTRY (9/5): Both #2 UNCATALYZED and #2B MOVE TO GOLD could win, but I’ve got my doubts. The former sat an ideal trip las time, while the latter hasn’t run in nearly a year (and the barn’s first-call rider goes to the other one). At their likely price, I’ll try to beat them; #5 SUMMER IN ADRIANE (8-1): Came from way back to top allowance foes at Keeneland last time out, and he did so at a monster price. That running style doesn’t often lend itself to success on the inner, but it’s also possible Mike Maker has him on the right track midway through his 4-year-old season.

R5

Amundson
Lost in Rome
Brew Pub

#8 AMUNDSON (5/2): Has been a stalwart of the NYRA circuit and doesn’t appear to have lost a step as a 9-year-old. His last-out win at Aqueduct was very impressive, he loves Saratoga, and his chances wouldn’t suffer with any moisture left in the ground; #9 LOST IN ROME (9/2): Goes first off the claim for a barn that does very well with new acquisitions. He’s searching for his first win in quite some time, but his last-out third at Aqueduct came in a swiftly-run race for the level and he’s run well here before; #7 BREW PUB (10-1): Chased my top pick two back and hasn’t won in a while, but he does relish wet tracks, with three wins and 10 in-the-money finishes in 16 such outings. He’s also shown an ability to rate a bit, which could help him rally for a piece of it.

R6

Braciole
Caldo Candy
My Man Matty

#1 BRACIOLE (12-1): Seems like the lone closer in a race full of early speed, and I simply cannot ignore that. He goes second off the bench here, and he capitalized on a similar situation two back at Aqueduct to get the job done; #2 CALDO CANDY (2-1): Is one of many who wants to go early, and the slight cutback in distance should help him. He was second in a similar spot two back, and the addition of Joel Rosario is noteworthy; #3 MY MAN MATTY (5-1): Hasn’t run since December of 2023, but he’s been working well and has flashed plenty of talent in the past. Bruce Levine knows how to bring horses back off the bench, and that May 2nd workout hints that he’s been ready for a while.

R7

Cloe
Saturday Flirt
Love Cervere

#8 CLOE (9/2): Adds blinkers for the Grade 3 Soaring Softly and exits a third-place finish at that level going down the hill at Santa Anita. Her two-back win in a stakes race at Gulfstream was very sharp, and so are the recent workouts. She hits me as the one they’ll have to catch; #3 SATURDAY FLIRT (5-1): Is 2-for-2 in the U.S. following a come-from-behind win in her 2025 debut at Keeneland. Her lone misfire came at Royal Ascot, which I can completely forgive, and the faster they go early, the better her chances figure to be; #1 LOVE CERVERE (7/2): Cut back to one turn to take a stakes race downstate last month beneath Joel Rosario, who climbs back aboard for this one. It wouldn’t surprise me if she went off lower than her morning line price, and she’s logical in a wide-open event.

R8

Purpose (MTO)
Tongue Twister
Summer Whirl

#7 TONGUE TWISTER (3-1): Ran a solid second when returning to New York-bred competition downstate and makes a lot of sense here. She’s a consistent sort hat generally runs the same race every time, and she’s run well here twice in the past; #8 SUMMER WHIRL (7/2): Probably needed her last-out effort, which was her first try since October. She tried stakes competition here last summer and wasn’t embarrassed when fourth of eight, so it would be far from surprising to see her take a step forward and contend here; #11 GALLEY HEAD (15-1): Merits a look in here at a big price after topping open company on the synthetic at Gulfstream. She ran well twice on turf before that, too, and she hasn’t run against New York-breds in quite some time.

R9

Long Neck Paula
Beauty Reigns
Mila Candy

#4 LONG NECK PAULA (4-1): Has yet to run poorly on dirt and comes in off of a second-place finish in the Palisades at Keeneland. She was third in last year’s Schuylerville, and she could sit an ideal stalk-and-pounce trip in the Jersey Girl; #2 BEAUTY REIGNS (9/5): Was an impressive winner at Churchill Downs last time and comes back to the stakes ranks here. Going one turn is her game, but do note that she’ll have to run without Lasix in this spot, and that could downgrade her just a bit; #1 MILA CANDY (8-1): Takes a big step up here, but she broke her maiden last time out in a fast race for the level (and previously ran well to be second in her unveiling). The rail draw isn’t ideal, but she seems like a filly with potential to move forward further at a bit of a price.

R10

Ball Don’t Lie
I’m Wide Awake
Consider It Done

#7 BALL DON’T LIE (3-1): Probably had too much to do last time, when he broke poorly from the rail and spotted the field plenty of ground. He still salvaged third that day, and if he can get past his gate issues and break cleanly with a better draw, he could move forward in a big way; #3 I’M WIDE AWAKE (2-1): Makes his first start for Norm Casse here and sure looks like he main speed. He wintered at Oaklawn, and he ran very well on a number of occasions. If speed is holding Sunday, he could be a major threat to wire them; #4 CONSIDER IT DONE (8-1): Is 2-for-2 since being claimed by Linda Rice and moves up the class ladder for this one. First-call rider Jose Lezcano stays aboard, and while he has tactical speed, it helps that he doesn’t necessarily need the lead in order to run well.

R11

Executive Order (MTO)
Creditworthy
Twisted Filigree

#1 CREDITWORTHY (2-1): Hasn’t run a bad one in three starts to date and returns to the scene of his maiden-breaking score last summer. His comeback race at Keeneland saw him run a close-up third against what was probably a better group, and he’s a logical favorite; #9 TWISTED FILIGREE (8-1): Hasn’t run since November but merits a long look in here. He was second in a pair of local turf sprints over the summer, and his last outing saw him run the talented Yarrow to a head at Aqueduct; #12 TAP TO MISCHIEF (5-1): Won his debut in July and hasn’t been seen in the afternoon since. However, he’s been working well for quite a while and has some strong drills on his sheet. Add in the ultimate equipment change as a first-time gelding, and it’s possible he’s set to be a major player.

R12

Think Big
Ag Bullet
Our Shot

#2 THINK BIG (6/5): Has won three in a row at three different tracks and was an impressive winner of the Grade 2 Turf Sprint on the Kentucky Derby undercard. He likes turf courses with some give, and that’s the route he figures to get in the Grade 1 Jaipur (which features several horses he’s beaten this season); #9 AG BULLET (7/2): Had a terrible trip in the Grade 3 Unbridled Sidney, when she was guided to the inside and never got through. The switch to Flavien Prat is a notable one, and perhaps she needed that race given it was her first try since December; #3 OUR SHOT (8-1): Has hit the board in all four of his races at Saratoga. He’s a bit pace-dependent, but we know he likes this route of ground, and it does seem like there’s plenty of zip around him in the starting gate.

R13

Far Bridge
Carson’s Run
Spirit of St Louis

#9 FAR BRIDGE (3-1): Ran third in the Grade 1 Manhattan a year ago against what hits me as a much better group, and he’s back for another crack at the apple here. He’s 2-for-2 this season, and unlike last year, the Europeans stayed home for the 2025 renewal of the traditional Belmont lead-in; #4 CARSON’S RUN (12-1): Merits a long look at a price in his second start off the bench. He was second in the Grade 2 Fort Marcy, a race he may have needed. He returns to a turf course he loves, he adds a bit of distance, and he may also get his desired conditions given some rain in the forecast; #6 SPIRIT OF ST LOUIS (5/2): Rose up from the New York-bred ranks to become one of the top turf horses in the country. He won the Grade 1 Turf Classic last time out, but that was an oddly-run race, and I’m not sure how much stock to put into it.

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $132

Good Cheer figures to be one of the shortest-priced favorites of the Belmont Stakes Racing Festival when she goes postward in Friday’s Grade 1 Acorn. She’s 7-for-7, exits a professional score in the Kentucky Oaks, and looks every bit like the best 3-year-old filly in the country.

The scary thing is, there’s a slight chance she’s not even the best 3-year-old filly in her barn. Immersive, last year’s Champion 2-Year-Old Filly after a campaign that included three Grade 1 wins, has returned to the work tab at Churchill Downs. She’s also owned by Godolphin and trained by Brad Cox, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see her in some big spots down the road next to her ultra-talented stablemate.

THURSDAY’S RESULTS: Major Dude had every chance in the Poker and gave me a thrill, but he couldn’t get to Donegal Momentum. I dropped $38.

FRIDAY’S PLAY: We’ll focus on the seventh race, which houses my best bet of the day. That’s #7 LOUISE PROCTER, and she’ll be the key to a big day. In addition to a $30 win bet on her, I’ll have $5 doubles singling her, both starting in the sixth with #3 WAYS AND MEANS and ending in the eighth with #1 ASBURY PARK/#1A NOBLE CONFESSOR and #9 SOLUTIONS.

TOTAL WAGERED: $45.

SELECTIONS/ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Louise Procter, Race 7
Longshot: Solutions, Race 8

R1

Sassy Shenanigans
Bellacose
Geopolitics

#4 SASSY SHENANIGANS (5-1): Didn’t seem like she sat her desired trip last time, when she was a one-paced third after being up close out of the gate. She hits me as more of a closer, and that could benefit her in a race with what seems like a lot of early speed signed on; #10 BELLACOSE (6-1): Romped in her debut here last summer before struggling in a pair of stakes races. We haven’t seen her since November, but she’s been working steadily ahead of her first start for Wesley Ward and returns with Lasix; #5 GEOPOLITICS (3-1): Burned quite a bit of money last year, losing as an odds-on favorite four different times. She’s been off since November, but of the other speed types, she looks the fastest early and the most likely to hang on for a share.

R2

Repole entry
Resurge
Surprise

REPOLE ENTRY (8/5): Both #1 NUMBERED and #1A ENDORSE could win this. The former has a right to improve after running third in the slop in her unveiling last month, while the latter sports a series of strong local drills and gets Irad Ortiz, Jr.; #11 RESURGE (4-1): Debuts for Bill Mott and is bred to be any kind. Dam Close Hatches was a heck of a racehorse, and she’s a top-class broodmare that’s thrown stakes horses Tacitus, Scylla, and Batten Down, among others; #6 SURPRISE (6-1): Ran fifth in her debut at Keeneland, but that wasn’t an easy spot. That day’s runner-up has since come back to win, and this one has bounced back with a couple of workouts that indicate she got plenty out of her initial start.

R3

Laser Sharp (MTO)
Works for Me
Run Carson

#3 WORKS FOR ME (8/5): Fell just short in his 2025 debut, where he lost a brutal head bob as an odds-on favorite. He sprang a 23-1 upset in a stakes race late last year, Flavien Prat returns to ride, and I think he’s a very legitimate favorite; #4 RUN CARSON (6-1): Made up a lot of ground to finish third in his return to the races at Keeneland after a slow start. He’s run well here several times in the past, and he’s a consistent sort who generally runs the same race every time; #7 REFUEL (10-1): Merits a look at a bit of a price in his second start off of a long, long break. He set a very fast pace in his return to the races before fading for fourth, and the presence of top gate rider Luis Saez indicates he’ll be prominent early once again.

R4

Vehemente
Nolita
Army Gal

#7 VEHEMENTE (3-1): Is doing the best running of her career and will look to record her third straight win in this spot. Kendrick Carmouche is 2-for-2 aboard this filly, and I like that she’s got plenty of tactical speed but doesn’t absolutely need the lead in order to run well; #1 NOLITA (8-1): Is a stone closer in a race with what seems like plenty of early speed elsewhere. She was last seen running second behind Dolomie at Aqueduct, and the faster they go early, the better her chances figure to be; #5 ARMY GAL (5/2): Had every chance last time out but couldn’t get by the winner after what seemed like an ideal stalking trip. Perhaps this group is a bit weaker, but the stretchout to seven furlongs is an unknown and she’ll likely be a pretty short price (which would hit me as an underlay).

R5

Dreamlike
Malarchuk
Costa Terra

#7 DREAMLIKE (9/2): Has run once since last June, and that was a clunker over the synthetic at Gulfstream. However, he has prior dirt races that would crush this field, including a third-place finish behind Lord Miles in the 2023 Wood Memorial (if you know me, you had to know that reference was coming); #2 MALARCHUK (4-1): Adds blinkers after a no-excuses second at 3/5 in an off-the-turf race downstate. He stretches back out to two turns for this one, and given his running lines, it feels like blinkers should absolutely move him forward; #4 COSTA TERRA (20-1): Merits a look underneath at a big price. He’s hit the board in six of seven Saratoga starts, he has a win at this distance, and Umberto Rispoli sees fit to take the mount. This is a class jump from his last few efforts, but he has 2024 races that would give him a puncher’s chance in here.

R6

Ways and Means
Scylla
Miss Justify

#3 WAYS AND MEANS (6/5): Returned from a six-month break to run third in the Grade 1 Derby City Distaff. That Churchill Downs track was very tiring, and a few different horses paid for not having a recent race. I’m banking on a significant step forward in the Grade 2 Bed o’ Roses, especially since she won the Grade 1 Test at this route last summer; #2 SCYLLA (5/2): Was fourth in the race my top pick exits, and she was another coming in off of a long break. I think there’s a chance she wants longer than this distance, but she was fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint last year and could also move forward; #6 MISS JUSTIFY (12-1): Takes a jump up in class but has won four of her last five starts. The lone defeat came in last summer’s Grade 1 Alabama going much longer, so I have no problem tossing that race. A step forward from her optional claiming prep downstate could get her a check at a nice price.

R7

Louise Procter
Mystifying
Wrigleyville

#7 LOUISE PROCTER (4-1): Makes her U.S. debut for Chad Brown and gets Lasix for the first time, which is always an appealing angle. Her prior connections took some big shots after a 3-for-3 start, including a Group 1 at Longchamp last spring, and she’s been working steadily for this outfit since shipping in; #3 MYSTIFYING (2-1): Was beaten a neck at Keeneland in her first start of the season and has a right to improve off of that effort. She was a close-up second behind a very nice horse on closing day here last summer, and she figures to be prominent early (never a bad trip on the inner turf); #10 WRIGLEYVILLE (10-1): Hasn’t won in a while, but goes to the barn of respected horseman Tom Proctor and may have needed her seasonal debut at Gulfstream going shorter. She stretches back out to two turns, which is probably her desired trip.

R8

St. Elias entry
Solutions
Tom Collins

ST. ELIAS ENTRY (6/5): #1 ASBURY PARK drew into the body of the field and was a 9/5 favorite in his lone start to date, where he ran a fast-closing fifth. He’ll get Lasix for the first time, while #1A NOBLE CONFESSOR looks to draw in off the AE list. Either can win, which makes the entry impossible to ignore; #9 SOLUTIONS (12-1): Showed speed in his debut on dirt, but his bottom-side pedigree says he’ll love the lawn. He’s kin to stakes-placed turfer Killjoy, and dam Sally Dangles (by top turf influence More Than Ready) is a half to graded stakes winner Consumer Credit, who did his best work on the grass; #6 TOM COLLINS (6-1): Led turning for home before fading to finish fifth in a tough spot for the level on the Derby Day undercard. His two-back effort at Tampa wasn’t bad, and he was a close-up third at this route late last summer behind the well-meant Agate Road.

R9

Raging Sea
Randomized
Leslie’s Rose

#4 RAGING SEA (5/2): Sprang a mild upset in the Grade 1 La Troienne, where she defeated reigning Horse of the Year Thorpedo Anna. She did get an ideal trip that day, but it was also her first race in six months and she’s been working very, very well ahead of the Grade 1 Ogden Phipps. A step forward would make her a real handful; #7 RANDOMIZED (9/2): Completes a powerful 1-2 punch for Chad Brown and looks like this race’s main speed. She was third behind Raging Sea last time out, and she’s 3-for-5 at Saratoga, including a win in this race last year over champion Idiomatic; #3 LESLIE’S ROSE (7/2): May have needed her run in the Grade 3 Vagrancy, and that race was much shorter than her ideal two-turn trip. That’s what she gets here, and a return to her Grade 1-winning form from early-2024 would give her a chance in this loaded event.

R10

Grand Sonata
Limited Liability
Flatten the Curve

#8 GRAND SONATA (6-1): Tries the grueling two-mile trip for the first time in the Grade 2 Belmont Gold Cup, but he’s got a ton of back class. He’s a Grade 2 winner who has faced some of the top turf horses in training, and Irad Ortiz, Jr., hopping aboard is a big, big plus; #3 LIMITED LIABILITY (2-1): Was third in this race a season ago and looks like the main speed, which is always dangerous in marathon turf races. Frankie Dettori knows him well, and his best race could win this, but he’s also won just once since May of 2023, and that makes him hard to trust at a short price; #1 FLATTEN THE CURVE (3-1): Comes over from Europe for his event and has won four in a row, including a Group 2 event in Germany. German racing isn’t quite the caliber of England or France, but that win came at this distance and his regular rider sees fit to fly in.

R11

Good Cheer
Bless the Broken
Shred the Gnar

#2 GOOD CHEER (1/2): May be the shortest-priced favorite of the day, and for good reason. She’s a perfect 7-for-7, cruised to victory in the Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks five weeks ago, and has been working well since. If she puts forth her usual effort in the Grade 1 Acorn, it’d be tough to imagine her getting beaten; #5 BLESS THE BROKEN (10-1): Came from way back to finish third in the Oaks at a price, and she may once again get a solid setup here. There’s plenty of early speed in this group, and that could allow her to rally for a big piece of this one; #4 SHRED THE GNAR (3-1): May be the “wise guy” horse in here after two runaway wins, but I have some doubts. She’s never won from off the pace, she’ll run without Lasix for the first time, and regular rider Luis Saez hops off to ride the favorite. That’s a lot to swallow.

R12

She Feels Pretty
Forever After All
Gimme a Nother

#8 SHE FEELS PRETTY (3/5): Returned to the races with a flourish in the Grade 3 Modesty, where she never once looked like a loser. She’s now 3-for-3 since adding blinkers, she’s proven she can handle this distance, and she should get an ideal trip in the Grade 1 New York; #1 FOREVER AFTER ALL (10-1): Ran a monster race in the Grade 3 Bewitch, which she won by nine lengths while geared down late. This is a significant class jump, to be sure, but she may simply be in career-best form (while in foal!), and I think she may offer value in the exotics behind a short-priced favorite; #3 GIMME A NOTHER (7/2): Chased my top pick last time out and has run well in two U.S. tries since shipping in from South Africa. She went 7-for-7 in her homeland and has literally never run a bad race. The question is, is more distance what she wants?

R13

Choisya
Excellent Truth
A Lilac Rolla

#9 CHOISYA (4-1): Benefited from a controversial “no change” ruling to win the Grade 1 Jenny Wiley in her U.S. debut. She probably got lucky to stay up, but at the same time, there’s a chance she still would’ve won even without shifting out. She topped the classy Cinderella’s Dream on the square two back, and she could add another Grade 1 win in the Just A Game; #8 EXCELLENT TRUTH (5/2): Was second behind my top pick last time out and looks for some revenge here. That was her first try since July, and she could continue what looks to be a banner day in the making for trainer Chad Brown; #7 A LILAC ROLLA (6-1): Makes her U.S. debut off a long break, but her early-2024 races were very sharp. She was second in the Group 1 1,000 Guineas at The Curragh before running third behind world-class mare Porta Fortuna at Newmarket, and she’s got a big chance if she’s ready to run.

R14

Broman entry
Poppy’s Ticket
Counter Move

BROMAN ENTRY (2-1): #1 KEEPINITREAL has a big chance if he’s ready to run, but I prefer #1A IRON DOME, who has a lot to like if he draws in off the AE list. He’s been running in open races at Oaklawn, and this would be his first try against New York-breds. The switch from Erik Asmussen to Jose Ortiz is a big one, too; #14 POPPY’S TICKET (8-1): Merits a long look at a bit of a price in his second career start. He was stuck inside after not making the lead, but showed some poise in rallying for third. He gets a better post here, comes in off of a sharp work downstate, and could have lots of room to improve with experience; #12 COUNTER MOVE (3-1): Looks like the main speed in here, which is a plus, but he’s flopped twice in a row as an odds-on favorite without any apparent excuses. The cutback to seven furlongs may help him a bit, but there are still legitimate stamina concerns that are tough to stomach (especially at a short price).

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $170

Thursday’s bankroll section must be a “Plan B.” The horse I’m most excited to bet comes in the finale, and that’s probably too late for my editors and the folks putting The Pink Sheet together (on top of also assembling the daily sports sections for both The Saratogian and The Troy Record).

You can check out my analysis of that race below and bet with the knowledge that my top pick in there will be a single for me. Thankfully, there’s a way for me to bet on a strong opinion just a bit earlier in the program, and that’s what I’m doing.

WEDNESDAY’S RESULTS: Sterling Silver looked home and cooled out at the quarter pole in the Critical Eye, but Bernietakescharge repelled the challenge. I dropped $30.

THURSDAY’S PLAY: I won’t play the finale, but I will play the Grand Slam, which concludes in the ninth. I really like #4 MAJOR DUDE in there, and this is part of how I’ll try to extract value. My $1 ticket starts in the sixth and goes as follows: 4,7 with 1,2,5 with 2,4,8 with 4. In addition, I’ll also have a $20 win bet on Major Dude, too.

TOTAL WAGERED: $38.

SELECTIONS/ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Smartest, Race 10
Longshot: Limes Don’t Lie, Race 6

R1

Mythical
Blinging It Back
Mercilesanihilator

#3 MYTHICAL (8/5): Stomped an overmatched field in his April debut at Gulfstream, and I loved the way he finished. He covered the last sixteenth of a mile in less than six seconds after dictating terms from the jump. If he steps forward here in the Tremont, I think he’ll be tough to beat; #2 BLINGING IT BACK (3-1): Started horribly in his unveiling but nearly overcame it, covering a ton of ground in the stretch to be beaten less than two lengths. Mark Casse’s horses sometimes need a race or two to get going, and he stands to improve considerably with a better break; #4 MERCILESANIHILATOR (4-1): Topped my second choice last time out after dueling for most of the race and re-rallying after being headed. Larry Rivelli doesn’t ship here for frequent flyer miles, and at a minimum, this one figures to be prominent early.

R2

Fire’s Out
Hideaway
Key Actress

#5 FIRE’S OUT (9/2): Ran very well in her return off a long layoff, closing to be beaten a half-length despite there not being much of an early pace to chase. Her pedigree says she’ll stretch out (she’s a full sister to Dreamfyre, who won a graded stakes going long on the lawn), and Rosario riding back is a plus; #4 HIDEAWAY (3-1): Comes back to the maiden ranks after a failed try in the Grade 2 Edgewood. This is a significant class drop, to be sure, and her two efforts prior to the graded stakes experiment make her a logical favorite with a chance to graduate; #7 KEY ACTRESS (6-1): Faded to fourth after setting the pace in her debut and has every right to move forward at second asking. Her two published works since that race are very good, and Bill Mott’s horses tend to improve with experience.

R3

Sassy C W
Vernon Valley
Gena B

#3 SASSY C W (8/5): Received the rare “rocket ship” trip note in her debut, when she sprinted six lengths clear at the first call and was never threatened. She hammered for $375,000 at auction earlier this year despite a modest pedigree, and this possible freak looks like strictly the one to beat in the Astoria (which, oddly, will be contested nowhere near Astoria this year…); #6 VERNON VALLEY (2-1): Didn’t break well in her unveiling downstate, but she overcame it and got the job done by nearly three lengths over a muddy track. Like her stablemate in the Tremont, she’s got every right to improve with a clean start, and I think the outside draw could help her relax; #2 GENA B (2-1): Battled throughout last month and was beaten a neck while beating that day’s third-place finisher by almost six lengths. This barn isn’t known for success with debuting runners, so that effort was noteworthy, and first-call rider Kendrick Carmouche returns to ride.

R4

Sarir (MTO)
Frances Stanley
Thiene

#2 FRANCES STANLEY (12-1): Made it two wins in a row in her first start off the claim for Bill Morey and gets a tepid nod at a price in this wide-open turf sprint. She’s relatively inexperienced, with just three starts to her credit, and I think she may have more room to improve than some of her opponents; #1 THIENE (8-1): Makes her American debut after 12 starts and four wins overseas, and she’ll race with Lasix for the first time. I love that angle, and she showed some talent in France a season ago. I’m just wondering if this is maybe a bit shorter than she wants to go; #4 TALES OF THE HEART (3-1): Rallied to finish second in her U.S. debut at Keeneland and had some trouble going around the turn. Her connections thought enough to run her in some tough spots in Europe last season, and it wouldn’t be stunning if she won, but her running style does lend itself to finding trouble, and she’s done that a few times. At her likely price, I’ll take a mild stand against her.

R5

Hello Beauty
Saratoga Snow
Nonna Lynne

#12 HELLO BEAUTY (3-1): Is one of several very interesting horses on the AE list for this one, so watch scratches very carefully. If she gets to run, she’ll do so against New York-breds for the first time after five outings against open company. Her last two races, in particular, were far from bad, and she could appreciate the drop in class; #11 SARATOGA SNOW (10-1): Is the first AE on the list and hasn’t run since October, but I think she merits respect at a price if she draws in. Her two turf efforts were far from bad, and the combination of tactical speed and top gate rider Paco Lopez is a notable one; #5 NONNA LYNNE (7/2): Is the runner in the main body of the field I prefer most. She hasn’t run since September, but she broke badly that day. She’s been working steadily for Chad Brown and adds Lasix for her 2025 debut.

R6

Limes Don’t Lie
Pure Beauty
Velvet Vortex

#4 LIMES DON’T LIE (8-1): Probably needed her 2025 unveiling, but she was good enough to win anyway. She chased the classy Quietside here last summer before going to the sidelines, and she could get an ideal race shape here with plenty of early speed to sit off of; #7 PURE BEAUTY (6-1): Was a distant fifth in the Grade 3 Gazelle back in April and gets back to what’s probably the right level. She cuts back to a mile, which should help her, and the return of Lasix could also get her back to her early-season form; #8 VELVET VORTEX (2-1): Would probably be my top pick with a better draw, but this is far from an advantageous post out of the Wilson chute. In addition to being challenged to save ground, both horses to her outside have tactical speed and may go early, too. She’s talented, but given the circumstances, I’ll try to beat her.

R7

Future Is Now
Pandora’s Gift
Twirling Queen

#2 FUTURE IS NOW (2-1): Won this race a season ago and seeks to retain her Grade 2 Intercontinental Championship (if you bet against a wrestling reference being in this section this week, you lose). She’s won five of her last six starts, and she beat several of these rivals last time out in the Grade 3 Giant’s Causeway at Keeneland, including…; #1 PANDORA’S GIFT (3-1): …who was beaten a nose that day. She’s got back class, and it wouldn’t be stunning to see her turn the tables given the narrow margin last time, but she also hasn’t won since May of last year, and I’m wondering if her best efforts are behind her; #5 TWIRLING QUEEN (8-1): Won five of seven a season ago and went to the sidelines after a December clunker at Gulfstream. However, she’s been training well, she won last year’s Coronation Cup at this route, and she’ll have a chance at a bit of a price if she’s ready to run.

R8

Willy D’s
Surface to Air
Film Star

#4 WILLY D’S (9/2): Took a big step forward last month, when he was a close-up second in a very fast race for the level at Churchill Downs. Mike Maker’s one of the best at finding new levels with high-priced claims, and if he keeps improving, he could have a big chance here beneath first-call rider Luis Saez; #2 SURFACE TO AIR (8-1): Hasn’t run since December, but has been training well at Monmouth and is a much different horse when running with Lasix. Draw lines through his efforts against stakes company, and you’re left with a sheet that includes five races where he crossed the wire first; #8 FILM STAR (7/2): Has never finished worse than third in five local starts and has won here twice, including an easy score in the off-the-turf Lure last August. He was second to a solid runner last time out at this level, and he may have been compromised by being wide turning for home.

R9

Yo Daddy (MTO)
Major Dude
Intellect

#4 MAJOR DUDE (7/2): Has been running against some top-class horses for most of this season and hits me as the one to beat in the Grade 3 Poker. He won the Grade 2 Fort Lauderdale in December, contested the Grade 1 Pegasus Turf, and fell a nose short in the Grade 3 Canadian Turf. If he’s his usual self, I think he’ll be a handful; #2 INTELLECT (5-1): Might have needed his U.S. debut after a layoff of nearly a year, and he didn’t run terribly to be third that day. His European form from 2023 and early-2024 is solid, and he’s got every right to take a step forward second off the bench for powerhouse connections; #7 DEPICTION (10-1): Seems to find trouble with aplomb, but he’s got several speed figures that stack up reasonably well with this group, and he’ll be a big price. The faster they go early, the better his chances figure to be, and at least he’ll be going the right direction late.

R10

Smartest
Just So Pretty
Queens Fable

#9 SMARTEST (9/2): Ran a deceptively-big race in her unveiling, when she closed to be second in a race with zero early pace at Colonial Downs in July. She hasn’t raced since, but Graham Motion can get horses ready to go off the bench and the presence of Umberto Rispoli is notable; #10 JUST SO PRETTY (7/2): Is probably the main speed in the nightcap and comes into this one off of a tough beat at Keeneland. She could win if she gets loose, but she’s had ideal trips before and not gotten the job done, so we’re approaching “now or never” territory with this one; #1 QUEENS FABLE (5-1): May have needed her 2025 debut at Tampa, where she ran third in her first start since June. She’s been on the sidelines since March, but she adds blinkers for Chad Brown and Irad Ortiz, Jr., hops aboard for the first time.