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SARATOGA SELECTIONS AND ANALYSIS
Best Bet: Booked, Race 6
Longshot: New York Special, Race 2
R1
Timia (MTO)
All of It
Neshika
#2 ALL OF IT (5/2): Didn’t do a single thing wrong in her debut back in April, where she routed a field of overmatched maidens despite rating behind a very moderate pace. This is a jump up in class, but improvement is logical at second asking and she could be a good one; #5 NESHIKA (9/2): Ran well in her first start off a six-month break, as she hit the front in the stretch before settling for a close second. She gets Lasix for the first time here, and Flavien Prat stays aboard when he likely had several options; #6 COSMIC CANDY GIRL (6-1): Hasn’t finished worse than third in six career tries, and she narrowly missed at this route a season ago. She’s got some tactical speed and could sit an ideal trip beneath Kendrick Carmouche.
R2
New York Special
Soaring Spirit
Coach of the Year
#2 NEW YORK SPECIAL (6-1): Debuted at a tricky seven-furlong route, but showed some speed and ran a good second. Her pedigree says she wants distance and that she should be able to handle the turf, so this two-turn route on the grass should hit her right between the eyes; #7 SOARING SPIRIT (7/2): Was a close second in her unveiling downstate for high-percentage connections and isn’t a bad favorite. She’s another that could step forward with a start under her belt; #4 COACH OF THE YEAR (6-1): Hasn’t been seen since November but returns for a barn that can get horses ready to run off the bench. She may be a bit pace-dependent, but she gets Lasix for the first time and she showed improvement from her first start to her second.
R3
Scottish Lassie
Filly Freedom
Limes Don’t Lie
#3 SCOTTISH LASSIE (4/5): Comes back off a long break after a 2025 campaign that included a runaway score in the Grade 1 Coaching Club American Oaks. The layoff is a concern, but we know she loves this track and she’s been working steadily since March. If she’s anywhere close to ready, she’s going to be very tough; #5 FILLY FREEDOM (4-1): Broke through last time out with a solid, professional win going seven furlongs downstate. This feels like the right route for her, as she’s got enough tactical speed to sit close without needing the lead in order to run well; #1 LIMES DON’T LIE (6-1): Has had some gate issues in her career, and the rail draw isn’t ideal for a runner with that sort of history. However, she’s never been worse than third in five career tries, and perhaps she needed her May return given the nine-month gap in her running lines.
R4
Ignite the Light (MTO)
Zulu Kingdom
Salamis
#2 ZULU KINGDOM (4/5): Earned his second Grade 1 win last time out at Keeneland and looks to have the nuts in the Grade 3 Poker. One of his two career defeats came by DQ here last year (in a truly puzzling decision that still baffles me to this day), but provided he avoids situations like that, it’ll be hard for these rivals to top him; #7 SALAMIS (5/2): Is the “other” Chad Brown, and he’s a Grade 1 winner, too. He took the Grade 1 Hollywood Derby at Del Mar in November, and while he hasn’t raced since, he’s certainly eligible to improve going from age three to age four; #4 CAPITOL HILL (8-1): Comes back into stakes company after back-to-back allowance wins. He may be a bit pace-dependent, which is a problem given how the turf has played this week, but he looks like an improving sort who’ll be going the right way late.
R5
Joker On Fire
Truman’s Commander
Diliello
#10 JOKER ON FIRE (7/2): Has found his footing on turf with a two-back score followed by a solid second on the step up in class. The far-outside post isn’t ideal, but he’s also not facing any world-beaters in here, and it’s possible he moves forward second off the bench; #2 TRUMAN’S COMMANDER (10-1): Is worth a look at a price given his back class. He hasn’t raced since January, but he kept solid company as a 2-year-old, has shown some early speed, and seems to be working well for Mark Casse; #9 DILIELLO (12-1): Picked up three checks here a season ago and has since broken his maiden. He’s been off since November, but he gets Lasix for the first time and Tom Morley can get horses like this ready to run.
R6
Booked
Just a Holiday
Beach Sandals
#9 BOOKED (3-1): Didn’t break well in his debut at Churchill, but did enough to salvage second money. He was favored that day, he’s worked well since then, and between his experience edge over many of these and the improved outside draw, I think there’s a ton to like; #3 JUST A HOLIDAY (9/2): Hammered for $800,000 at auction last year at Keeneland and debuts for Wesley Ward, one of the best in the business with first-out 2-year-olds. If there’s any hesitation here, it’s because his pedigree, while very strong, hints that he actually wants to go longer than this 5 1/2-furlong route; #6 BEACH SANDALS (6-1): Showed speed in his unveiling before fading to finish second. Casse trainees sometimes need a race or two to get going, and the lone local workout looks solid enough.
R7
Complex Agenda
Gene and Jude
The Paddock Pastor
#1 COMPLEX AGENDA (9/2): Looks like the main speed in here and draws a picture-perfect inside post in his second start off a three-month break. Given how strong early speed has been this week, the gameplan here seems pretty straightforward, and I think he makes every pole a winning one; #3 GENE AND JUDE (7/2): Stomped a field of restricted claimers last time out at Churchill, and he’s hit the board twice in as many starts at the Spa. This is a significant step up the class ladder, but Prat rides back for Mike Maker, and perhaps he’s turned a corner as a 4-year-old; #12 THE PADDOCK PASTOR (6-1): Draws a terrible far-outside post, but he ran well in his 2026 debut given some slow internal fractions. He likely needs a pace to run at, but if he gets one and is able to save any ground, he could come running for a piece of it.
R8
Niche (MTO)
Slay the Day
Cadenza
#4 SLAY THE DAY (6/5): Won the Grade 3 Limestone two back at Keeneland before chasing Cy Fair in the Grade 3 Mamzelle. That one isn’t in this field, and that makes the Grade 3 Soaring Softly a drop in class. If she runs her usual race, she’ll be a handful; #3 CADENZA (4-1): Is 2-for-2 on turf, and one of those wins came at this route back in August. She may be a few lengths back early, but if the early pace is swift, she stands to benefit; #5 KINGSOLVER (8-1): Tried turf for the first time a month ago and was second behind my second choice. It’s possible the grass is what she wants, and her record looks a lot better if you toss her clunker in the Grade 2 Beaumont, which came over a muddy track.
R9
Secured Landing
Mr Skylight
Gatsby
#6 SECURED LANDING (6-1): Has won three in a row and has been very popular at the claiming box. Linda Rice has him now, and he looks like the main speed in here. If he clears and gets comfortable early, he could be hard to reel in; #5 MR SKYLIGHT (10-1): Won as a heavy favorite two back before being left with too much to do last time out. He adds blinkers for new trainer Rob Falcone, and he’s got back races that would give him a chance if he can find that form; #1 GATSBY (9/2): Won two in a row to end 2025 before finishing third in January and going to the sidelines. Those were his first two wins in quite a while, but they came after he was claimed by this barn in August.
R10
Toscano
Long Pour
Mo for the King
#1 TOSCANO (6-1): is a tepid top pick in a wide-open first-level allowance. He was second in a swiftly-run race for the level downstate, and while he was a 4/5 favorite that day, he gets Flavien Prat and has enough speed to establish position from the inside draw; #12 LONG POUR (4-1): Comes back to the state-bred ranks after racing against better foes at Gulfstream and Keeneland. He also gets back to the dirt, which seems like his preferred surface, and he broke his maiden here last year in wire-to-wire fashion; #8 MO FOR THE KING (5-1): Looked very impressive two back against starter allowance foes before flopping against open company. This is probably a weaker spot, and he’s another with early speed at a track where that’s been rewarded.
R11
Irish Goodbye
King Farro
Roadie
#11 IRISH GOODBYE (5/2): Has run second twice at this level downstate and has speed figures that outclass this bunch in the Sunday finale. The outside post helps, as does a sharp recent drill, and this hits me as a formful end to the five-day festival; #4 KING FARRO (4-1): Was rushed to the front after a bobble at the break last time, but still held on for third in his first try since October. He’s fired a recent bullet drill over the Oklahoma track, and he could be sharper second off the bench; #3 ROADIE (10-1): Hasn’t raced in over a year, but goes to Todd Pletcher’s barn and runs after receiving the ultimate equipment change (he’ll race as a first-time gelding). His lone outing to date is a throw-out due to a terrible break, and I think he could be sitting on an improved performance at a price.