BANKROLL
Check back Thursday evening!
Want to leave a tip? Click here to send it via Venmo!
SARATOGA SELECTIONS AND ANALYSIS
Best Bet: Hero Declared, Race 3
Longshot: Floy Joy, Race 13
R1
Hadrian’s Wall
Sorrentino
Commerce
#8 HADRIAN’S WALL (7/5): Looks likely to start the Friday card on a chalky note. He missed by a head to the talented Ottinho in December and hasn’t raced since. The layoff isn’t ideal, but the work pattern is solid, and if he’s ready to go, he’s strictly the one to beat; #5 SORRENTINO (8-1): May provide some value underneath after losing all chance at the break in his debut at Gulfstream. He started slowly from the rail that day and never really had a chance to run his race. John Velazquez rides back for Todd Pletcher, and I’m expecting improvement at second asking; #3 COMMERCE (9/2): Debuted with a solid second at Keeneland against older horses in a race that’s aged pretty well. That day’s winner, Saugeen, came back to beat winners at Woodbine. Bill Mott trainees often get better with experience, and the solid local works may mean a step forward is in the offing.
R2
Hit the Post
Factually Correct
Kenny Be
#3 HIT THE POST (7/2): Is a tepid top pick in a wide-open optional claimer for state-breds. He goes second off the layoff here, and his first start since October wasn’t a bad one. He figures to be on or near the lead early, and he ran well here a few times last summer; #5 FACTUALLY CORRECT (4-1): Has won two in a row in wire-to-wire fashion, and the class jump may not be quite as big as it appears on paper. Those two races were at lower levels, but against open company. He goes back to state-breds here, and it sure seems like he’s in solid form; #4 KENNY BE (3-1): Was an easy winner last time out, but I have my doubts. He’d been at that level for quite a while, and I just don’t think he beat much that day a Aqueduct. This barn is good at keeping horses on the right track, but his likely price hits me as a slight underlay.
R3
Hero Declared
Dark Moon
Holding Power
#1 HERO DECLARED (4-1): Was a huge buzz horse in his debut last summer, where he ran second behind a monster effort from It’s Our Time. We haven’t seen him since, but he’s been working up a storm at Keeneland, Payson Park, and across the street. If he’s developed in his time off, that big effort we expected last August could be on tap; #10 DARK MOON (8-1): Debuts for the Repole/Pletcher/Velazquez trio that’s won quite a few races up here, and he’s been working well ahead of his unveiling. The outside draw is a plus and should give the Hall of Fame rider plenty of options; #5 HOLDING POWER (15-1): Hammered for $475,000 back in 2024 and has a right to be a good one. His bottom-side pedigree is very strong, as his dam is a half to two Grade 1 winners (including Visionaire, whose page on Pedigree Query boasts one heck of a story…). He may want a bit longer, but perhaps he’s talented enough to factor here at a price.
R4
Ways and Means
Grand Job
Senza Parole
#3 WAYS AND MEANS (1-1): Looks best in what morning line man David Aragona sees as a two-horse race. Her effort in the Grade 1 Derby City Distaff wasn’t bad considering the 11-month layoff, and she returns to a track where she’s won four of five starts, including last year’s renewal of this event, the Grade 2 Bed o’ Roses; #1 GRAND JOB (6/5): Suffered a pretty disgusting beat in the Grade 1 Madison at Keeneland, where she was beaten a nose after leading in mid-stretch. She enters after three straight bullet drills for Mott, and my biggest concern isn’t her talent, but the rail draw; #4 SENZA PAROLE (8-1): Found her form in the winter and cuts back to seven furlongs after running second going two turns at Keeneland. That may have only been an optional claimer, but it drew a solid field, and perhaps the cutback is what she wants.
R5
Sheer Will (MTO)
Silsbee
Emblaze
#11 SILSBEE (4-1): Earns my top pick in a wide-open race where I could’ve logically gone many different directions. I don’t love the layoff, but she got pretty good near the end of last year with two wins downstate, and at least we know she can run well fresh given her maiden-breaking score last May off of a similar-length layoff; #1 EMBLAZE (9/2): Won on debut at Tampa and ran well late to be third against stakes foes last month. She makes sense, especially given the addition of Lasix, but closers in these turf sprints that break from the rail often need quite a bit to go right; #7 DI NATALE (2-1): May very well be favored here, but I think this is a chalk one is supposed to try to beat. She’s run second three straight times against similar, and she was odds-on in each of her last two outings. Her figures are good, and perhaps she’s just better than these, but she hits me as a horse that likes to run second, and her likely price seems like an underlay.
R6
Shelzawa
Deference
Secretly Delighted
#8 SHELZAWA (5/2): Makes her North American debut for Chad Brown after a pair of strong seconds in her native France. She gets Lasix for the first time, which often moves these horses up considerably, and the presence of Flavien Prat is a big, big plus; #3 DEFERENCE (6-1): Had a strange trip last time out at Aqueduct, when she initially stalked a slow pace before dropping back a few lengths and re-rallying. There doesn’t seem to be a ton of early speed signed on here, which means she could be able to dictate terms from the jump; #4 SECRETLY DELIGHTED (7/2): Debuted with a strong second at Kentucky Downs last August and hasn’t raced since. That day’s winner came back to repeat at next asking, and while the break of more than nine months is a significant hurdle to clear, there’s every chance she’s good enough to run well in her 3-year-old debut.
R7
Money Game
Bendoog
Full Screen
#8 MONEY GAME (9/2): Continues up the class ladder after a 3-for-3 start to his career. This is a stakes-quality field he’s facing, but he’s yet to do anything wrong on the racetrack, and unlike many opponents who have been at this level for a while, this one may still be improving, which makes him dangerous; #7 BENDOOG (7/2): Has proven to be a challenging horse to ride over the years, and while he did technically win last time out, it was a dead heat. It’s tough to knock a millionaire that’s gotten to seven figures the hard way, but he’s very tough to endorse on top at a fairly short price; #1 FULL SCREEN (3-1): Hasn’t run since an easy score in the Queens County downstate in December. His best race could win, but isn’t it interesting that Cox also saddles my top pick in here, and that this one is eligible to be claimed for $110,000?
R8
Commuted (MTO)
Mischievous Angel
Mentee
#1 MISCHIEVOUS ANGEL (6-1): Hasn’t run well in two starts this season, but those were in stakes company, and one of those efforts was going two turns. I think he’s better going shorter, and being able to run with Lasix against a slightly-weaker group may be enough to get him back on the beam; #10 MENTEE (7/2): Had an eventful trip over yielding going last time out, when he checked back to eighth and re-rallied to salvage third. He won the Grade 3 Futurity on turf back in 2024, and while he’s had his issues staying healthy, he’s a stakes-caliber horse on his best day; #4 SPICED UP (8-1): Looked like a very promising colt after winning the Grade 3 Mahony here last summer, but he hasn’t won since. His two-back effort at Keeneland, however, was fine, and he’ll get to run with Lasix over a turf course he’s shown he likes.
R9
Pashmina (MTO)
Lion Lake
Time to Dream
#8 LION LAKE (8/5): Ran third in a pair of Grade 2 races in Kentucky and is a logical favorite in the Grade 2 Wonder Again. She’s shown she can take her game many different places, and her tactical speed is a huge plus. If she sits her desired “stalk and pounce” trip, she’ll have every chance; #5 TIME TO DREAM (9/2): Ran very well here twice a season ago but hasn’t really moved forward since then. She’s kept very tough company, though, and she returns to a track where she’s 2-for-2, including a five-length romp in last summer’s P.G. Johnson; #7 CALL ON ME (8-1): Merits a look underneath at a bit of a price. She goes up in class for Rusty Arnold, but her relative inexperience gives her room to improve, and perhaps she just moved a bit too early last time out at Churchill Downs.
R10
Always a Runner
Counting Stars
Meaning
#5 ALWAYS A RUNNER (4/5): Looms large in the Grade 1 Acorn, where she’ll face several foes she knocked off in the Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks. That was just her third career start, so she has a right to take a step forward. If she does, the race is for second money; #2 COUNTING STARS (9/2): May have the potential to improve here given the likely race shape. There’s not much early speed signed on, and it wouldn’t be shocking if she leads this field by default going into the first turn. If she gets comfortable, perhaps she puts up a fight; #3 MEANING (3-1): Is a talented filly that’s never really misfired, and she was second in the Oaks five weeks ago. My only knock is that she sat what sure looked to be an ideal trip that day and got beat, which means I don’t have as much room to suggest there’s room for upward progression.
R11
Gezora
Cankoura
Speed Shopper
#9 GEZORA (3-1): Was beaten at odds of 4/5 in her 2026 debut, which came in the Grade 3 Modesty. That race was probably a bit shorter than she wants to go. She stretches out a bit in the Grade 1 New York, and she should be more ready to run in her second start off the bench for new trainer Bill Mott; #6 CANKOURA (10-1): Comes over from France, where she’s kept some tough company. She was third behind Gezora in a Group 1 last summer, and her relative clunker last time out was her first start since August; #3 SPEED SHOPPER (8-1): Was a relatively-easy winner of the Grade 3 Bewitch at Keeneland going 12 furlongs, and she cuts back in distance here. At a minimum, this isn’t too long a trip for her, and she’s getting good at the right time for William Walden.
R12
Fully Subscribed
Nitrogen
Bless the Broken
#1 FULLY SUBSCRIBED (5/2): Had every chance in the Grade 1 La Troienne, but her rally was rebuffed and she settled for second. The Grade 1 Ogden Phipps is her second start off the bench, which means she should be sharper, and given the presence of my second choice, I don’t think she’ll be favored; #5 NITROGEN (7/5): Wasn’t worse than second in nine tries a season ago, and one of her wins came in the Grade 1 Alabama here at Saratoga. She did, however, burn money in each of her last two starts at Oaklawn. Perhaps the recent bullets at Keeneland are a clue she’s doing well, but she may need to get back to that 2025 form to win here, and that’s not a certainty; #6 BLESS THE BROKEN (6-1): Was third in the race my top pick exits and has developed some tactical speed since going to Brad Cox’s barn. That could put her in the clear and just off the pace, which would give her first run turning for home.
R13
Grace and Grit
Floy Joy
Karley B
#6 GRACE AND GRIT (5/2): Has won two of three races against open company since going to the Amelia Green barn, and her last-out win going seven furlongs was excellent. It seems like she’s in career-best form as a 4-year-old, and a repeat of that most recent effort would put her right there; #8 FLOY JOY (10-1): Dueled throughout to win on debut for a barn whose first-time starters almost always need a race to get going. She bolted last time out, which makes the clunker a throw-out. The rider switch to Dylan Davis is notable, and if she gets back to her debut form, I think she’s a player at a price; #7 KARLEY B (3-1): Overcame a bump at the break to graduate at second asking last time out. She looked great that day, but I have no idea what she beat in that race, and I think this is a pretty classy group for the level. She may need to improve to make it two in a row.
R14
Knowledge Sharing
Harry O
Silent Impact
#11 KNOWLEDGE SHARING (5-1): Debuts for Chad Brown, attracts Flavien Prat, and is very interesting despite an outside post and an unveiling coming going two turns. His bottom-side pedigree is exceptional. He comes from the female family of Tiznow and Budroyale, so he should want every inch of ground he can get; #10 HARRY O (6-1): Ran fairly well in two starts last season before going to the sidelines. The winner of his most recent race came back to repeat, and he should at least get some pace to run at; #5 SILENT IMPACT (8-1): Took a step forward in his first try on turf, when he made a middle move into a very fast pace and settled for second. His two-back drill at Belmont was very solid, and a logical move forward at third asking would make him a contender in the nightcap.