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SARATOGA SELECTIONS AND ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Book’em Danno, Race 8
Longshot: Trust Fund, Race 6

R1

Cold Spell
Nakoma
Crowning Glory

#4 COLD SPELL (3/5): Looks likely to start the Belmont Day program off on a chalky note. Her debut was a sharp one, she’s worked well since that effort, and that day’s third-place finisher has since come back to win. There’s just not much to nitpick here; #6 NAKOMA (10-1): Ran third in her unveiling on turf downstate and gets Lasix for the first time. This barn’s runners tend to improve with experience, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see her move forward at a bit of a price; #7 CROWNING GLORY (8-1): Is a regally-bred filly, being by Uncle Mo and out of top-notch mare Close Hatches. Bill Mott trainees sometimes need a race to get going, but it would be far from shocking if she was a runner.

R2

Senior Officer
Life and Times
Incentive Pay

#9 SENIOR OFFICER (2-1): Hasn’t run a bad one in four starts to date and should be able to sit an ideal trip stalking just off the pace. His last two workouts in Kentucky were both very good, and with this being just his fifth start, he may still have room to move forward; #3 LIFE AND TIMES (9/5): Drops back down in class for this one and cuts back to one turn. His two efforts downstate late last year were fine, but I wonder if he’ll be able to get his preferred trip on the lead against a field that includes others with significant early zip; #4 INCENTIVE PAY (5-1): Improved second off the long layoff to clear his first-level condition last time out and returns to the track where he ran third in the 2024 Grade 1 Hopeful. He showed a bit more tactical speed last time out, and he’s another that’s eligible to improve.

R3

Le Gris (MTO)
Tenacious Leader
Intellect

#6 TENACIOUS LEADER (5-1): Ran fifth last time out, but that came against a field closer to graded stakes company than usual optional claimers. The top three finishers from that race all came back to win, and this one showed plenty of form last fall before going to the sidelines; #8 INTELLECT (6/5): Has tons of back class and figures to be favored, but I have some doubts. It didn’t seem like he had much of an excuse last time at this level, and it was his fifth straight “underneath” finish since coming to America. At his likely short price, I can’t back him on top; #9 CANDYTOWN (4-1): Hasn’t raced since November but has shown he can make up ground against talented horses. It seems like there’s some speed signed on, and Irad Ortiz, Jr., lands here when he likely had several options.

R4

Steer Clear
Naive Melody
Helen’s Revenge

#3 STEER CLEAR (7/2): Ran well here twice a season ago before fading to fourth in the Grade 1 Frizette, and we haven’t seen her since. She’s been working consistently for three months, though, and if the most recent drill is any indication, she’s ready to run; #2 NAIVE MELODY (3-1): Came off a long layoff with aplomb in April, when she cruised home over state-bred company. This is a tougher spot, but inside speed has been a plus this week at Saratoga, and it wouldn’t be shocking if she’s up top early on; #7 HELEN’S REVENGE (8-1): Comes up the class ladder after three wins in a row for Linda Rice. This isn’t the easiest field for the level, and the track hasn’t played kindly to outside-drawn closers, but she’s clearly in form and has at least shown some tactical speed in the past.

R5

Brunch With Amy (MTO)
Curlin’s Angel
Eponine

#6 CURLIN’S ANGEL (5-1): Ran like a horse that needed a race last time out at Laurel, and she gets considerable class relief. In addition to running against weaker foes, she gets to compete with Lasix, which should move her forward considerably over a course she’s shown an affinity for; #2 EPONINE (3-1): Was one-paced when third in last year’s Grade 2 Lake Placid, and we haven’t seen her since. She’s been training at Woodbine, and the workouts seem solid, but she also hasn’t won since February of 2025, so I’m wary at her likely short price; #8 SCARLETT’S HALO (6-1): Finished third in her 2026 debut, which was her first try since late-September. She should be sharper second off the bench for Chad Brown, who has enlisted Flavien Prat to hop aboard.

R6

Local Knowledge
Sea Strike
Trust Fund

#5 LOCAL KNOWLEDGE (5/2): Won professionally at first asking at Keeneland in October but has been on the sidelines since. She’s been working well for Todd Pletcher, though, and if she’s the horse she was in that unveiling, she could easily run her record to 2-for-2; #8 SEA STRIKE (4-1): Was another debut winner, as she rallied from seventh to get the money at Aqueduct in late-April. She didn’t break well that day, but she overcame the slow start without much of an issue. She may need to break sharper against this bunch, but there’s also a lot of speed in here, too, and that could help her; #12 TRUST FUND (30-1): Merits a look at a bonkers price. He loves Saratoga and has historically done his best running late. With the likely race shape, I won’t be surprised if he clunks up for a piece of it at a big number.

R7

Segesta
Classic Q
Mandanaba

#3 SEGESTA (7/5): Comes into the Grade 1 Just a Game off of back-to-back wins at this level. Her misfire in last year’s renewal was likely due to the yielding turf course, which she doesn’t figure to see on Saturday. She seems probable to sit her preferred “stalk and pounce” trip, and that would make her very dangerous; #1 CLASSIC Q (6-1): Sure looks like the main speed, which is always dangerous in two-turn races on the inner turf. If she’s able to get comfortable, she could get brave and be tough to catch as the field turns for home; #4 MANDANABA (9/2): Ships in from Europe and goes second off the bench for a very, very strong outfit. She’s Grade 1-placed in her native France, and she’s run up against some heavy hitters over there. It wouldn’t be shocking if she fits in with these.

R8

Book’em Danno
Imagination
Bentornato

#6 BOOK’EM DANNO (2-1): Was a hard-luck second in his 2026 debut downstate in the Grade 2 Carter, but I think he takes a step forward here in the Grade 3 True North. He’s 4-for-5 over this track, including a win in last year’s renewal. If he’s the horse he was a year ago, which seems likely, I’d argue he should be favored; #2 IMAGINATION (4-1): Comes in for Bob Baffert and may have been a bit jet-lagged when fourth in the Grade 1 Churchill Downs. That was a fairly quick turnaround after a trip to Saudi Arabia. If Baffert has him right, last year’s runner-up in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Sprint could be live; #3 BENTORNATO (8/5): Merits respect, but I have some questions. This barn has cooled off considerably following a monster year in 2025, and the last two works at Churchill, while fine, don’t jump off the page. Maybe he makes me look silly, but I’ll try to beat him.

R9

Reef Runner
My Boy Prince
Ag Bullet

#5 REEF RUNNER (4-1): Is well-traveled, having won in Saudi Arabia before a fourth-place finish in the Group 1 Al Quoz Sprint in Dubai. He comes in here off of several excellent drills in Florida, and he figures to get the super-firm turf course he relishes in a wide-open renewal of the Grade 1 Jaipur; #10 MY BOY PRINCE (5-1): Came a bit too late with his run when fourth in the Grade 2 Turf Sprint at Churchill last time out. Prior to that, he won the Grade 2 Shakertown at Keeneland, and he seems to be coming into form at five for Mark Casse; #6 AG BULLET (3-1): Makes her first start since November, and her 2025 campaign included a win in this race. The layoff is a question mark, but John Velazquez knows her well and she’s got tactical speed without necessarily needing the lead, which could be valuable.

R10

Crude Velocity
Englishman
Gilded Bandit

#6 CRUDE VELOCITY (9/5): Has done nothing wrong so far, going 3-for-3 ahead of a try in the Grade 1 Woody Stephens. He ran very, very fast to take the Grade 2 Pat Day Mile five weeks ago, and if he’s the same horse here, I think he’ll be tough to top; #7 ENGLISHMAN (3-1): Threw everything but the kitchen sink at my top pick last time out and ran well, but had to settle for second money. Perhaps the cutback to seven furlongs will help him, as he looked fantastic in two sprint wins before that effort; #1 GILDED BANDIT (8-1): Has shown an ability to rate and pass horses, which could help in a race heavy on early zip. He’ll run without Lasix, which is a concern, but his two-back bullet here hints that he’s doing well and he should be going the right way late.

R11

Nysos
Saudi Crown
Journalism

#1 NYSOS (9/5): Ran a close second to Forever Young in the Group 1 Saudi Cup, and there’s no shame at all running second to that one. The Grade 1 Met Mile has been the target all along for this one, and the inside draw only makes me more bullish. If he gets the desired stalking trip, he’ll loom large; #4 SAUDI CROWN (8-1): Has shown he’s tough when he gets to the lead, and his last-out score in the Grade 3 Commonwealth at Keeneland was sharp. He figures to dictate terms early on, and if the track is playing kindly to speed, he could throw down a stiff challenge turning for home; #7 JOURNALISM (5/2): Is impossible to dislike as a consistent, hard-trying colt, but the post position is a concern. Outside posts just don’t do well out of the Wilson chute, and it’s also fair to wonder if he’s plateaued. He may need to improve to win this, and whether or not he’s capable of another step forward is a fair thing to ponder.

R12

Rhetorical
Bright Picture
Test Score

#7 RHETORICAL (2-1): Made every pole a winning one in the Grade 1 Turf Classic and is a logical choice in the Grade 1 Manhattan. He doesn’t need the lead, but his tactical speed may mean he winds up there anyway, and giving a talented horse like this an easy trip usually leads to good things; #6 BRIGHT PICTURE (3-1): Comes over from France and has competed against some of his country’s best horses. He’s won two stakes this year and run second in another, and if you’re not familiar with trainer Andre Fabre, look up some of the races he’s won over the years; #2 TEST SCORE (12-1): Ran too poorly to be true last time out, and if he gets back to his usual form here, I don’t think he’s without a shot. He’s a two-time Grade 1 winner that has run well over this turf course, and if you draw a line through the aforementioned clunker, it’s not like he’s done much wrong. 

R13

Renegade
Emerging Market
Golden Tempo

#4 RENEGADE (2-1): Did everything but win in the Grade 1 Kentucky Derby, and it feels like the stars are aligning in the Grade 1 Belmont. The smaller field usually means less chaos and fewer variables, which should give him the cleaner trip he didn’t get five weeks ago beneath the Twin Spires; #8 EMERGING MARKET (6-1): Was 10th in the Derby, but that was just his third career start, which made things very, very difficult. He also lost a shoe during the race, and by all indications, he’s rebounded to train well coming into the final leg of racing’s Triple Crown; #9 GOLDEN TEMPO (9/2): Merits a ton of respect after the Derby win, and it’d be a great story if he and Saratoga Springs native Cherie DeVaux won this race, too. However, there doesn’t seem to be much pace signed on, and he capitalized on an ideal setup on the first Saturday in May. He’s talented, but such a setup seems unlikely to materialize again here.

R14

Pagode (MTO)
Sounds Like a Plan
Outrunner

#12 SOUNDS LIKE A PLAN (9/2): Has drawn a terrible post in the last of 14 races on the program, but he’s 3-for-3 with Lasix and sure looks like the main speed in the race. He’ll likely try to clear this field very quickly, and if he does, I think he might be tough to run down; #10 OUTRUNNER (5-1): Hasn’t won since a first-out score in late-2024, but he ran in some tough spots last year and is training well ahead of his first try since November. If he’s ready to run and can save some ground from this post, he’ll have every chance; #8 ELNAJD (5-1): Tries turf for the first time, and does so against a solid field. However, his bottom-side pedigree says he’ll love the lawn, and he’s shown tactical speed in three prior starts on dirt.