SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll for Saturday, July 4th

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $973

You might not know of Robin Howlett, but he’s done much, much more to try to grow the game than some who are paid to do so. A few years ago, he created a free program called Handycapper that Equibase shut down with a tactless cease-and-desist.

He’s back with a game called 14-0. It’s similar to recent games that have popped up for basketball and baseball where you spin for teams and eras and pick the best players to fit certain positions. Here, you go through four decades of Breeders’ Cup winners and attempt to pick the most complete lineup.

I believe I posted the first 14-0 mark in the game’s history Thursday night, and I’ve been trying to replicate that feat ever since. It’s an addictive game fans of the sport’s champions will love. One quick tip: Don’t rush to fill your Classic spot unless you roll 2022 (and can pick up Flightline). That race has, by far, the most horses with ratings at 130 or higher. Concentrate on other races with less depth instead!

FRIDAY’S RESULTS: The first bad beat of the season came on the first day. Petrolo was clear turning for home, but wound up third in a three-horse photo. I dropped $27.

SATURDAY’S PLAY: I’ll look to capitalize on back-to-back races where I have strong opinions. I think #11 VAN VOLLENHOVEN is a vulnerable favorite in the sixth, and that #8 ABASHIRI is very likely winner of the seventh (the Grade 1 Belmont Oaks). I’ll play $10 doubles that start with #2 CRISTOBAL, #4 TRUMAN’S COMMANDER, and #5 RHYTON, and end with Abashiri as a single.

TOTAL WAGERED: $30.

Want to leave a tip? Click here to send it via Venmo!

SARATOGA SELECTIONS AND ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Grace and Grit, Race 4
Longshot: Tiztastic, Race 8

R1

Mashallah
Lovely Christina
Lightscape

#4 MASHALLAH (3/5): Looks like a logical favorite in the Saturday lid-lifter, and she’ll be a short price. Her debut at Keeneland was smashing, but she regressed going a mile at Churchill. Shortening up should help her quite a bit, and anything close to the debut would make her very, very hard to beat; #3 LOVELY CHRISTINA (5/2): Ran well here twice last summer before finishing fifth in the Grade 1 Frizette, and we haven’t seen her since that performance. Todd Pletcher brings her back off a steady string of works downstate, and perhaps she’s moved forward since last year; #5 LIGHTSCAPE (15-1): May be worth a look underneath at a big price. She won first time out for Tom Proctor in Florida before trying stakes company twice. She cuts back and gets Lasix here, and we know she can pass others late.

R2

Brunch With Amy (MTO)
Accent
Eponine

#2 ACCENT (8/5): Drops in out of stakes races for Chad Brown and gets Lasix again. She’s 3-for-3 running with that medication, and she’s shown some versatility, which should help on the inner turf. Flavien Prat rides back, and she looks imposing; #4 EPONINE (5/2): Had plenty of trouble last time out, when she blew the break and came flying to be beaten just a neck. On one hand, she’s clearly eligible to improve second off the bench, but on the other, she hasn’t won in quite a while (since February of 2025); #5 MAKE YOU MINE (6-1): Is the “other Chad” in here, and there’s plenty to like despite a very, very long layoff. She adds Lasix in her U.S. debut, which is often a powerful angle, and her debut back in France was very good (albeit almost a year and a half ago).

R3

Moonlit (MTO)
Shelzawa
Nonconsecutivetrms

#6 SHELZAWA (5/2): Came off the bench last time and closed into a slow pace over a turf course where it really helped to be forward. Chad Brown runs two in here, this is where Prat lands, and there should at least be some pace for her to chase; #8 NONCONSECUTIVETRMS (7/2): Makes her first start since December for Brendan Walsh and ran fairly well several times as a 2-year-old. The winners of her last three races all came back to win at next asking, and this one has shown some tactical speed that could help her; #2 FANGO CREEK (8-1): Was one-paced in her debut, which featured a pretty slow early pace. Bill Mott’s horses tend to move forward with experience, and the 8-1 morning line hits me as a slight overlay.

R4

Grace and Grit
Queens Cat
Britain

#8 GRACE AND GRIT (7/2): Hasn’t run a bad one since going to the Amelia Green barn, earning two wins and two seconds in four starts. She was second at this level last time out, but she was well back on a day where it paid to be forwardly-placed. Assuming a fair racetrack and the lively pace that looks to materialize, I think she’s a very likely winner; #5 QUEENS CAT (6-1): Reeled off three wins in a row at Finger Lakes before coming here and trying turf last month. That didn’t work out, but she’s back to her preferred surface, and her regular rider from Finger Lakes takes a ride in; #7 BRITAIN (4-1): Tried stakes company back in January and was eased that day. We haven’t seen her since, but she’s been working consistently at Monmouth for a high-percentage barn and runs against New York-breds for the first time after three races against open company.

R5

Vissino
Waggley
Ashcroft Lane

#5 VISSINO (6-1): Comes into the Grade 3 Sanford off of a debut where he showed me quite a bit of things I like to see. Not only did he close at first asking, but he overcame quite a bit of trouble and showed maturity. At this point, who these horses have been running against is anyone’s guess, but this is where I land; #1 WAGGLEY (6-1): Hasn’t done anything wrong to this point, as she’s gone 2-for-2 for Wesley Ward. One of those victories was a stakes win over the boys at Churchill Downs, and Ward has been one of the top 2-year-old trainers in the game for quite a while now; #7 ASHCROFT LANE (5-1): Splashed home by nearly 10 lengths in an off-the-turf race downstate. There are questions here given the circumstances, but the last-out bullet drill across the street inspires some confidence, and perhaps he’s moving forward with a start under his belt.

R6

Cristobal
Truman’s Commander
Rhyton

#2 CRISTOBAL (9/2): Is one of several coming back from the same race, and he’s never run a bad one here in three tries. His fast-closing third was his first start since November, he comes in off of a last-out bullet drill, and I think a step forward is in the offing; #4 TRUMAN’S COMMANDER (5-1): Didn’t get his desired trip last time out. He’s shown quite a bit of early speed, but he broke fairly slowly and was wide before finishing with interest. He’s another that should be sharper in his second start off a long break; #5 RHYTON (6-1): Probably lost all chance at the break in that event, which, like my other top two, doubled as his first try in a while. Flavien Prat hops on for Miguel Clement, and he’s another I like more than likely favorite #11 VAN VOLLENHOVEN (7/2), who got a perfect trip that day and just couldn’t get the job done.

R7

Abashiri
Faithful Departed
Imaginationthelady

#8 ABASHIRI (5/2): Ships in for powerhouse connections and has been running against some of the best 3-year-old fillies in Europe. She was most recently third behind division leader Precise in the Group 1 Irish 1,000 Guineas, and while this field in the Grade 1 Belmont Oaks is far from bad, I think it’s a class drop; #4 FAITHFUL DEPARTED (5-1): Has taken steps forward at several points and won the swiftly-run Grade 3 Regret at Churchill last time out. Jose Ortiz is 2-for-2 aboard this filly, and it’s possible she’s just hitting her stride for a smaller, but very capable, barn; #10 IMAGINATIONTHELADY (4-1): Drew terribly for this one but has done very little wrong to this point. She took the Grade 2 Edgewood on Kentucky Oaks Day, and if there’s a battle up front early on, she figures to be the main beneficiary.

R8

Hit Show
Tiztastic
Antiquarian

#8 HIT SHOW (5-1): Stretches out to his preferred 10-furlong trip in the Grade 2 Suburban, and I think that’ll make all the difference. He’s a plodder that has done his best work at this distance, most notably winning last year’s Group 1 Dubai World Cup over Forever Young. A grinder with a special place in my heart dating back to the 2023 Wood Memorial (thanks, Lord Miles), I think he’s logical; #5 TIZTASTIC (12-1): Got back on the beam with a late-running optional claiming score at Churchill and comes back up the ladder. Toss the turf efforts in the back half of last year, and his form looks considerably better. Factor in the legitimate pace he’s likely to get here, and I think he could come running late at a price; #7 ANTIQUARIAN (3-1): Took down last year’s Grade 1 Jockey Club Gold Cup and will likely be favored, but I have doubts. Compared to the rest of that field, he got a dream trip that day. It’s not like he can’t win, but I’d need about double the price I’m likely to get in order to recommend him as an option.

R9

Pacific Avenue
West End Kid
Remember Mamba

#6 PACIFIC AVENUE (6-1): Most recently ran third behind the world-class Gstaad in the Group 1 Irish 2,000 Guineas. Like barn buddy Abashiri, it just feels like he’s been running against better company than what he’ll face in the Grade 1 Belmont Derby, and I’d gladly take the 6-1 price if I can get it come post time; #8 WEST END KID (3-1): Has won three in a row and captured the Grade 3 Pennine Ridge in professional fashion. He did sit an ideal trip near a pretty slow pace, but his tactical speed is certainly an asset, and this barn has been firing on all cylinders this year; #3 REMEMBER MAMBA (7/2): Won his first three starts before settling for second behind the very talented Stark Contrast in the Grade 1 American Turf. This is one of several extremely good 3-year-olds for the Cherie DeVaux barn, and there does seem to be some pace signed on, which is good news for him.

R10

Capital Idea
Tarantino
Full Screen

#7 CAPITAL IDEA (4-1): Has shown he likes the Wilson chute more than most of these horses (and, to be honest, more than most handicappers). He went 2-for-2 at this quirky configuration last summer, he’s run fairly well against much better horses in each of his last three tries, and he gets to run with Lasix coming back to what’s probably the right level; #2 TARANTINO (8-1): Cut back to one turn last time out and took advantage of it, showing some speed and getting back to the winner’s circle for the first time in a while. Inside speed is very dangerous out of the chute, and I think he could provide some value; #3 FULL SCREEN (7/2): Was a one-paced fourth as a favorite last time out. I wasn’t crazy about him that day given a puzzling class drop after a two-back stakes win, but he was claimed that day by Saffie Joseph, who does outstanding work with new acquisitions, and the recent bullet drill jumps off the page.

R11

Silly Season
Morning Prayer
Zap That Ghost

#11 SILLY SEASON (2-1): Looms large in the nightcap despite a tricky outside post. She had a terrible break in her debut, but still nearly managed to win after rating behind a slow pace. We haven’t seen her since, but Prat rides for Chad Brown and the last-out work hints that she’s ready to run; #1 MORNING PRAYER (7/2): Had every chance last time out, when she hit the front in the stretch before settling for second money. She’s got some speed and has an inside draw, which can be a lethal combination over the inner turf; #8 ZAP THAT GHOST (10-1): Ran against a bias in her debut last time, but still managed to pass several horses after racing in last most of the way. Jose Ortiz’s presence is noteworthy, as he likely had a few options, and this may be where exotics value lies.

Leave a Reply