SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll for Friday, July 10th

BANKROLL

(NOTE: The Saratoga Springs Public Library cancelled the event in question Friday morning. The section below was sent Thursday before that development.)

BANKROLL: $1,082

Next week, the Saratoga Springs Public Library will host Patrick Battuello, who runs an organization called Horseracing Wrongs. The library has a right to book whatever guests it wants, I readily admit horse racing (two words, not one!) isn’t everyone’s cup of tea, and I respect those who have rational, reasonable objections to certain parts of the industry. Since that event is presenting a one-sided view of certain matters, though, I’m using this space to present facts you won’t hear if you attend.

People should know that Horseracing Wrongs blatantly deals in misinformation and sensationalism to fuel its own agenda. Battuello’s stances on an eventual petless society and the sterilization of racehorses to the point of extinction are reprehensible, and as a writer, that group’s documented disrespect of copyright law also offends me. It’s also worth noting that, as a restaurant owner, Battuello proudly served meat options, which…kind of makes all the “animal rights” stuff fall flat, doesn’t it?

Donna Brothers wrote an excellent piece detailing all the issues with Battuello and his group, and an organization called Horse Racing Facts did the same. Both articles are well worth your time. I cannot say the same about next week’s event at the library.

THURSDAY’S RESULTS: I got exactly the trip I wanted with Opulent Restraint in the sixth, but she dropped anchor in the stretch and I dropped $25.

FRIDAY’S PLAY: The back half of this card is absolutely fascinating, and I’m going to try to extract some value out of my strongest lean, #5 JACKIE THE JOKER in the eighth. She’s a single to finish $2 Pick Three tickets that start in the sixth and go as follows: 1,2,5 with 1,2,3,6 with 5.

TOTAL WAGERED: $24.

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SARATOGA SELECTIONS AND ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Pros and Cons, Race 2
Longshot: Relative Risk, Race 10

R1

Hadrian’s Wall
Commerce
Presidential Power

#1 HADRIAN’S WALL (4/5): Has run second in all three tries to date, and while I understand a lack of interest in him at a very short price, he’s certainly the most likely winner here. He was left with far too much to do last time over a speed-favoring track, and Flavien Prat likely won’t make the same mistake twice; #4 COMMERCE (7/2): Was fourth in the race my top pick exits and showed some tactical speed that day. Bill Mott trainees tend to improve with experience, so it’s not illogical to think he could take a step forward in his third career start; #5 PRESIDENTIAL POWER (5-1): Showed mild late interest in his debut going shorter here last month. He certainly needs to move up on speed figures, but every bit of his pedigree says he wants this two-turn trip, and the rider switch to Jose Ortiz is a notable one.

R2

Pros and Cons
Mary’s Gonna Run
Golden Siren

#1 PROS AND CONS (2-1): Debuted in a tough spot at Gulfstream Park, one that awarded the winner a spot in a race at Royal Ascot. She was a good second that day, and her pedigree says two turns won’t be an issue. Any sort of a step forward makes her the one to beat; #7 MARY’S GUNNA RUN (8/5): Debuted by finishing second in a swiftly-run race downstate. They finished very, very fast that day, and this barn doesn’t often have first-time starters fully cranked. Logical improvement gives her a chance; #2 GOLDEN SIREN (6-1): Is the “other” Mark Casse trainee, but she may have some potential. She sold for $135,000 at auction last summer, and her dam is kin to stakes winners Proven Strategies and Corona Bolt, among others.

R3

B Thedonald
Kenny B
On the Hill

#2 B THEDONALD (8/5): I’d rather not, but this one is very logical coming back to the optional claiming ranks. He was a solid second behind a runaway winner in the Mike Lee here last month after a rough break, and if he’s able to get away cleanly, I think he’ll sit an ideal trip beneath Manny Franco; #5 KENNY BE (5/2): Won easily two back at Aqueduct before chasing a perfect-trip, runaway winner here a few weeks ago. David Duggan’s had him going pretty well as a 4-year-old, and if my top pick finds older company too tough at this stage, this is the one who figures to benefit; #4 ON THE HILL (9/2): Had every right to need his return to the races last time out off of a long break. The start before that break saw him get pulled up and vanned off, so both of those races are throw-outs. This barn isn’t having the best year, but he’s run well over this surface and would benefit from a pace meltdown.

R4

Playa Del Mar (MTO)
Favorable Scenario
Golden Channel

#4 FAVORABLE SCENARIO (9/5): Didn’t have an ideal trip last time, when he rated behind a modest pace in his first try since January. He closed well to be second that day, though, and going to the Mellon turf course (which is a bit more favorable to closers than the inner) should move him forward; #7 GOLDEN CHANNEL (7/2): Has tactical speed and just missed in a first-level allowance at Monmouth last time out. Jose Ortiz likely had several options, but he winds up on this George Weaver trainee, and I think that’s notable; #6 ELNAJD (5/2): Had an eventful journey here last month, when he checked out of the race around the far turn before doing a bit of running in the stretch. I don’t think he was getting to the loose-on-the-lead winner that day, but he’s certainly eligible to improve.

R5

Contrary Thinking
Dapper Moon
Vibrant Express

#4 CONTRARY THINKING (2-1): Did everything but win off the trainer switch to Amelia Green last time. The former Grade 1 rabbit did all the dirty work up front and got nailed on the wire. He certainly looks like the controlling speed here, and I think he makes every pole a winning one; #7 DAPPER MOON (6-1): Ships in for Dallas Stewart, whose trainees must be respected when they come in from Kentucky. He has back races that fit with this bunch, and he didn’t have the best of trips last time out at Churchill; #3 VIBRANT EXPRESS (5/2): Reeled off five wins in a row downstate over the winter and may have been compromised by a sloppy track last time as a disappointing odds-on favorite. Prat rides back for Weaver, and a bounce-back effort would put him in the mix.

R6

Resort
Gum
Loveontheleftbank

#2 RESORT (8-1): Kicks off an intriguing late Pick Five sequence as a potential wire-to-wire threat at a price. There just isn’t much early speed in this inner turf race, and she at least has shown some interest in her last few starts. John Velazquez takes the call, and I’m hoping he gets aggressive; #1 GUM (6-1): Just missed last time out at Laurel and once again draws the rail for Graham Motion. Blinkers go on, which is interesting (and a strong move for this outfit), and it wouldn’t be surprising to see her be a bit more forward; #5 LOVEONTHELEFTBANK (3-1): Is 0-for-8 lifetime and has burned quite a bit of money, including in two prior tries at this level. Her speed figures are competitive, and she wouldn’t be shocking, but I’ll take a mild stand against her here given the likely price.

R7

Sing a Little Song (MTO)
Sadie Earp
Capturing

#3 SADIE EARP (2-1): Is very dangerous when she gets to the lead, and I have to think that’s the plan here. Her last-out wire-to-wire win at Aqueduct off the bench was a sharp effort, and while she jumps up in class, the relative lack of early speed elsewhere in this field could really help her; #1 CAPTURING (6-1): Ran very well three back to clear the first-level condition at Keeneland, and has since gotten some strange trips downstate. Jose Ortiz hops aboard for a Todd Pletcher barn that’s been uncharacteristically cold at Saratoga dating back to Belmont week; #6 QUIET CONFIDENCE (4-1): Hasn’t run since September and returns for a lower-percentage outfit, but she’s probably the other main speed in this field besides my top pick. She won in wire-to-wire fashion at this route back in July, and while the break is a huge question mark, the recent bullet drills hint that she may be ready to run.

R8

Jackie the Joker
Play Good Pay Good
Miss Lao

#5 JACKIE THE JOKER (8/5): Enjoyed quite a bit of success at Aqueduct in the first half of the year, with four wins in eight 2026 outings to date. On paper, this is a move up in class, but the field includes several runners she’s beaten soundly, and the last-out victory was very, very good. If she repeats that effort, the race is probably for second; #6 PLAY GOOD PAY GOOD (4-1): Has won two in a row at Finger Lakes and tries deeper waters here at the Spa. This barn doesn’t come up the Thruway for no reason, and Ricardo Santana, Jr., will likely have her forwardly-placed in the early going; #4 MISS LAO (8-1): Broke through for her first win in quite a while last time, but she’s a consistent filly going to a sneaky barn first off the claim. She’s run well at Saratoga in the past, and while this is another technically going up in class, it’s not a particularly intimidating group for the level.

R9

Goodall
Tommy Jo
Carmel Coast

#10 GOODALL (3-1): Is a tepid top pick in a fantastic renewal of the Grade 3 Victory Ride. Her win in the Jersey Girl Belmont week was excellent, and she draws a cushy outside post that should give Flavien Prat plenty of options. If she’s the same horse she was a month ago, she’ll have a big say here; #5 TOMMY JO (7/2): Was one of the best 2-year-old fillies in the country last year, but she went to the sidelines after an uninspiring fifth in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies. She was probably going just a bit too far that day, and this trip should hit her between the eyes if she’s ready to run; #3 CARMEL COAST (8-1): Ran very well to be second in the Jersey Girl after breaking poorly, being sent to the front, and setting a very fast pace. She’s got two strong races over this surface, and her two-back win showed that she doesn’t necessarily need the lead in order to run well.

R10

Ink Lies
Relative Risk
Two Ducks

#4 INK LIES (8/5): Takes one of the biggest drops in the game for Wesley Ward, going from a maiden special weight to a maiden claiming event in the Friday finale. Her two-back effort at Keeneland was a good one, and at least she showed some late interest when taken back last time at Churchill; #7 RELATIVE RISK (15-1): Merits a long look at a big price in his debut. He only sold for $19,000, but sire Flameaway has thrown some precocious runners and his bottom-side pedigree is very good. His dam was a first-out winner, and that mare is kin to stakes winner Joevia and stakes-placed 2-year-old Ready for Peace. It also helps that, to be honest, he doesn’t have to be a monster to contend here; #1 TWO DUCKS (5/2): Has earned plenty of checks at this level and will take money, but at 0-for-10 lifetime, I have my doubts. He’s just not the type to pass horses late in races, I’m not sure he’ll be in front turning for home, and his likely price hits me as an underlay.

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