BANKROLL
BANKROLL: $1,200
A lot’s changed in the last few weeks. Aqueduct is no more, Hawthorne and Emerald Downs are in trouble, and FanDuel TV has laid off most of its workforce. Relish what you have, everybody, because a lot of things in this industry (and the world at large, to be fair) seem very, very fragile at the moment.
For those new to my work, here’s an introduction: In addition to full-card Saratoga picks and analysis, I’ll also offer wagers for each racing day at the Spa. If you can’t pick up a copy of The Pink Sheet on a racing day, my content will be available online every day at both AndrewChampagne.com and my Substack, The Smart Money.
Usually, I have $1,000 in the bank for 40 days. Due to the extra days this summer, I’ve put $200 more in there to start things off. I’ve finished the last two summers in the black, and Belmont week was a good one, too. Let’s see what we can do over these next 46 cards.
FRIDAY’S PLAY: I’ll take a swing in the sixth, where I think we’ll get some value with my top pick, #6 PETROLO. I’ll have a $15 win bet on that one, and I’ll key him in $2 exactas above and below #3 PROVE WORTHY, #4 METATRON’S MUSE, and #5 SHIPSATIONAL.
TOTAL WAGERED: $27.
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SARATOGA SELECTIONS AND ANALYSIS
Best Bet: Anyway, Race 3
Longshot: Scratch It, Race 8
R1
Nogradi
Fact
Pretty Boy Miah
#1 NOGRADI (5-1): Has won four of five since a late-November barn change, and while this is a step up in class, it certainly looks like he’s going the right way. He should get plenty of pace to chase, and that could make him the one they have to hold off turning for home for the first time this summer; #4 FACT (5/2): Capitalized on a picture-perfect trip last time out in Indiana and may go favored based on his back class. He was a tough-luck second in last year’s Smarty Jones at Parx, and while his best effort is quite good, he almost certainly won’t be alone up top early on here; #5 PRETTY BOY MIAH (6-1): Was thrown into very deep waters last time out in the Grade 1 Preakness, and while he has to tackle older foes here, it’s the right level. He gets o run with Lasix again, which should help him, and his works since coming to Saratoga have been sharp.
R2
Timbertop
Rockabye
Pavlova’s Palace
#5 TIMBERTOP (3-1): Is the lone runner in here with experience, and she likely learned quite a bit first time out. She didn’t break well in that off-the-turf event, but she gets to run on the grass here for Wesley Ward, and I think it’s telling John Velazquez sees fit to ride back; #9 ROCKABYE (4-1): Draws favorably in her debut and will get some attention solely because of sire Flightline, whose first crop is hitting the track this year. Miguel Clement can get first-time starters ready to run, and there’s some class on the bottom of her pedigree, as her dam (a daughter of Into Mischief) was a Grade 3 winner; #6 PAVLOVA’S PALACE (8-1): Debuts for Bill Mott, whose record with first-time starters isn’t fantastic. However, she’s kin to five winners, and her dam is a half to a few very nice turf horses, including Grade 1 winner Stroll and Grade 1-placed Patrol.
R3
Anyway
Blue Roof Beau
Mo for the King
#3 ANYWAY (5/2): Was a good second here last month going a bit longer and cuts back to six furlongs for this event. He seems to be coming to hand for “leading trainer” candidate Linda Rice, and while he has tactical speed, he’s shown he doesn’t need the lead to run well; #5 BLUE ROOF BEAU (4-1): Did nothing wrong in his debut, when he dueled through solid fractions before hitting the wire clear by nearly four lengths. I’m not sure what he beat that day, and this is a stiff class test given how strong it came up for the level, but he could wind up improving at second asking for this high-percentage outfit; #1 MO FOR THE KING (8/5): Is the morning line favorite, but I have doubts. He was beaten a neck by my top pick last time out, and his lone recent win came over a muddy, sealed track downstate. That 8/5 price hits me as an underlay, and I’ll try to beat him.
R4
Mr R T
Trail Blaze
Ryan’s Shadow
#7 MR R T (7/2): Gets Flavien Prat in a puzzling maiden claiming event, and that combined with his tactical speed is enough for me to give him a tepid nod. He did run fairly well last time out to be second going a mile, and I’m expecting him to be on or near the lead here; #2 TRAIL BLAZE (9/2): Is a new face coming in from California, and he picked up a few checks over the winter at Santa Anita against similar stock. We haven’t seen him since February, but Jose Ortiz gets the call, and ignore a Linda Rice-trained newcomer to a circuit at your own peril; #5 RYAN’S SHADOW (4-1): Showed brief speed last time out in an off-the-turf event and drops further down the class ladder for trainer Brad Cox. That last-out effort was disappointing, but a few workouts since that effort have been OK, and it’s not like he’d have to be much to run well against these.
R5
Oscar’s Encore
Paula’s a Star
Minute by Minute
#7 OSCAR’S ENCORE (5-1): Showed talent a season ago when she broke her maiden here and then finished beaten three lengths in a $1 million race at Kentucky Downs. She’s been off since being eased in a stakes race at Woodbine, but if she’s ready to run, I think she’ll be tough; #3 PAULA’S A STAR (4-1): Tried turf for the first time last month and didn’t run terribly, finishing fourth in a swiftly-run race for the level. That hits me as a much stronger spot than this one, and Ricardo Santana, Jr., has been enlisted to ride back for trainer Tom Morley; #1 MINUTE BY MINUTE (7/2): Tries turf for the first time for the tag team of Chad Brown and Flavien Prat and merits some respect, but I have some reservations. Her debut win was fine, but her comeback effort in May was very disappointing, and while she’s got some turf pedigree, I’m wondering why she didn’t start her career on that surface for a trainer that runs a ton of 2-year-olds on the lawn.
R6
Petrolo
Metatron’s Muse
Shipsational
#6 PETROLO (6-1): Came back after a break of more than a year and didn’t run terribly, finishing third at a price. He should be much, much sharper second off the bench, and the rider switch to Manny Franco is a big one. This barn’s been cold to start the year, but I think there’s quite a bit to like here; #4 METATRON’S MUSE (5/2): Benefited from a fast pace last time out, when he came off the bench going a mile and won a head-bob. Orlando Noda claimed him that day, and he can win with new acquisitions, but two turns is a question mark and I’m not sure what kind of pace he’ll get here; #5 SHIPSATIONAL (9/2): Hasn’t won in a long, long time, but he stretches back out to two turns, which seems like his preferred trip. His close-up second two back was a good effort, and his last-out effort came at a slightly higher level.
R7
Silver Talent
Fort Nelson
Belgian
#1 SILVER TALENT (7/2): Earned the diploma last time out at Aqueduct and looks to be improving for Chad Brown. This regally-bred son of Constitution and multiple Grade 1 winner Paulassilverlining has had some big expectations, and if he’s starting to figure things out, he’s a serious prospect; #5 FORT NELSON (6-1): Is one of two Linda Rice trainees and seems eligible to improve cutting back from a route to a sprint. One of his three wins came here last summer, first-call rider Jose Ortiz has the mount, and his winning efforts two and three back downstate were good ones; #2 BELGIAN (3-1): Ran away and hid in his unveiling a season ago before finishing fifth as a 6/5 favorite in the Grade 3 Futurity on turf. He’s been working consistently, and if he’s ready off the bench, he’s a contender, but that layoff is a significant one and that has me…waffling (I hear you booing).
R8
To a Flame
Scratch It
Code
#7 TO A FLAME (9/2): Has had some strange trips against graded stakes foes in her last two starts, but may have found her friends here in the Wild Applause. She was up very close two back at Keeneland and raced wide at Churchill Downs last time. Jose Ortiz hops aboard for the first time, and I think she’s dangerous with a more friendly journey; #1 SCRATCH IT (12-1): Was much the best last time out in Indiana and returns to the stakes ranks here. She was second in the P.G. Johnson here last year before collecting another minor award in the Grade 3 Surfer Girl, and if you cross out her clunker over a synthetic track two back, she hasn’t done much wrong; #10 CODE (5-1): Doesn’t draw a great post, but graduated two back before finishing a close-up second in her first try against winners. Flavien Prat likely had options, but he lands here, and that could be a clue.
R9
Luminous Beauty
Prime Aurora
Harper’s Corner
#8 LUMINOUS BEAUTY (3-1): Was an impressive second-out winner here last month, and her two workouts since that effort have been sharp. This is a wide-open renewal of the Schuylerville, but at a minimum, she seems to be in form, she draws a cushy outside post, and Prat stays aboard; #2 PRIME AURORA (9/2): Did everything right in her debut at Gulfstream, where she aired by nearly nine lengths. It’s anyone’s guess what she beat that day, but the time was sharp, and at least the runner-up came back to win at next asking; #6 HARPER’S CORNER (6-1): Led every step of the way at first asking at Laurel and is one of a few shipping in for solid mid-Atlantic outfits. Paco Lopez comes up for the day, and his presence is worth noting when he makes the trek up from New Jersey.
R10
Gulfy (MTO)
Glavine
Siyouincanada
#7 GLAVINE (4-1): Didn’t sit an ideal trip in the Grade 3 Pennine Ridge, where he sat off a slow pace and couldn’t outfinish the top three. There seems to be more zip here in the Saranac, which should play to his strengths, and perhaps he shows up with his best fastball here; #1 SIYOUINCANADA (9/2): Made every pole a winning one in his debut and should be forwardly-placed from the jump here. He’s taking quite a class jump, but that hints at confidence from these connections, as does the presence of Jose Ortiz; #11 ARIZONA TERRITORY (5/2): Will almost certainly be favored, and perhaps he’ll make me look silly, but I’ll try to beat him. The far-outside post position isn’t ideal, and he’ll have to run without Lasix for the first time. He wouldn’t be a shocking winner, but I can’t bet him at his likely price.
R11
Adrian (MTO)
Dividend Recap
Brokealltherules
#5 DIVIDEND RECAP (2-1): Was way too far back last time, when he sat 10th of 12 early and was left with too much to do. Manny Franco retains the mount, and I have to think he won’t want to make the same mistake twice in the Friday nightcap; #10 BROKEALLTHERULES (7/2): Stretches out to two turns and didn’t draw a strong post, but he seems like the main speed in this two-turn inner turf finale, and that’s always dangerous. The last-out runner-up came back to win Sunday at Aqueduct, which flatters him, and if anyone can work out a trip from the 10-hole, it’s Prat; #9 RIVER TAY (6-1): Won four in a row before coming to Saratoga last month, where he finished second and beat my top pick. He may be a bit pace-dependent, which hurts him, but he’s been very consistent dating back to last fall and can’t be ignored.