BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,250.83

I’m of two minds regarding Sunday’s corgi races at Saratoga. As a way to get people out to the track, it’s fantastic. There’ll be people at the races who otherwise probably wouldn’t attend, and given the current state of the sport, crowds like that are a blessing.

On the other hand, my often-repeated question about marketing in horse racing rears its head: What are we doing, as a sport, to ensure those people keep coming back and want to learn more about the betting aspect of the game? As usual, I fear the answer, on the whole, is, “not nearly enough,” and that worries me. 

If you’re reading this in The Pink Sheet and you’re new to the game, welcome. I’m here every day with analysis, selections, and bankroll plays, and if you want to follow along with my content, you can do so at my website, AndrewChampagne.com. Here’s hoping I give you a few winners today.

SATURDAY’S RESULTS: My Pick Four play was cancelled when a few races were taken off the turf. As a reminder, all plays in this section assume races carded for the grass stay there.

SUNDAY’S PLAY: I’ll focus on my best bet of the day, which comes in the third race. That’s #2 SHE’S A GAMER, and I’ll look to extract value with daily double plays ending in a fourth race where I’m against the morning line favorite. I’ll have $15 doubles singling She’s a Gamer with #2 SUSPEND and #5 REAL RESTRAINT, and $5 “saver” doubles singling her with #7 DIGNIFY and #10 RELATED PARTY.

TOTAL WAGERED: $40.

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SARATOGA SELECTIONS AND ANALYSIS

Best Bet: She’s a Gamer, Race 3
Longshot: Suspend, Race 4

R1

Zapruder
Crescendo’s Rein
Judge Boushay

#1 ZAPRUDER (5/2): Came back to the dirt with aplomb last time out, when he rallied from last to first to win going away at Churchill Downs. This state-bred allowance field is probably comparable to the open $50,000 claimers he ran against last time, and he should get some pace to chase, too; #5 CRESCENDO’S REIN (9/5): Enjoyed a picture-perfect trip in his first time going two turns last time out. He romped by seven lengths at Finger Lakes that day and figures to be forward beneath Flavien Prat. He may still have some room to improve second off the bench for an astute barn; #4 JUDGE BOUSHAY (2-1): Goes two turns for the first time after running second from start to finish last time out of the Wilson chute. That was a strange race where the frontrunners never came back to the field, and while he’s certainly got the tactical speed to sit a great trip, I can’t take a short price on a 3-year-old doing something for the first time against older horses.

R2

Carc Brothers
Willpowered
Oat Coutour

#5 CARC BROTHERS (4/5): Is 3-for-3 to this point in his career, and all three wins have been by daylight. The connections got lucky sneaking him through a $55,000 claimer two back, and he comes into the state-bred ranks to run here. He’ll probably be the shortest price of the day, and I can’t go against him; #2 WILLPOWERED (4-1): Ran well in a pair of June races for Prat and Miguel Clement, and those two tag-team again with him here. He’s yet to run a truly bad race on turf, and he was probably left with too much to do last time, when he rallied from eighth of nine to salvage third money; #1 OAT COUTOUR (6-1): Generally runs the same race every time out and has a pretty potent late kick. He may be a bit pace-dependent, but you generally know what you’re getting with this gelding, and his usual effort may be good enough for a piece of it at a bit of a price.

R3

She’s a Gamer
Coaster
Next On Stage

#2 SHE’S A GAMER (9/5): Sure looks like the main early speed in here and should appreciate the slight cutback to six furlongs. Her most recent work at Monmouth was very, very fast, and I think she’ll get extremely comfortable up front beneath Junior Alvarado; #3 COASTER (9/2): Has been on the shelf for over three months after a professional score at Oaklawn. She’s one of many likely to employ stalking tactics, and if she’s ready to run, she could put my top pick to the test turning for home; #5 NEXT ON STAGE (2-1): Is one of two Linda Rice trainees in this short field, and she exits a runaway score here last month. This, however, hits me as a much tougher spot, and that race was easily the best she’s ever run. She may need to repeat that effort in order to contend here, and even that may not be enough.

R4

Suspend
Real Restraint
Dignify

#2 SUSPEND (8-1): Was one-paced in his debut for Bill Mott, whose runners tend to improve significantly with experience. Everything about him said he was going to need his first effort. He got it, he didn’t run terribly when fifth against a solid group, and a step forward would make him a major player at a bit of a price; #5 REAL RESTRAINT (7/2): Debuts for Brendan Walsh and is bred to be a very good turf horse. He’s kin to turf stakes winner Movin’ On Up, and his dam is a half to Grade 1-winning turfer Harvey’s Lil Goil (as well as Grade 3-winning dirt router Gosger); #7 DIGNIFY (8-1): Hammered for $700,000 at auction across the street last year and has every reason to be a good one. This Todd Pletcher trainee is out of a mare who’s a half to champion Tepin and multiple graded stakes winner Vyjack. If there’s hesitation here, it’s because most of this barn’s talented 2-year-olds debut on dirt, not turf. 

R5

Seeker’s Hope
Red Miller
Lexington Pike

#4 SEEKER’S HOPE (8/5): Takes a big drop in class to run for a $20,000 claiming tag after finishing third for double that price earlier in the meet. He hasn’t won in a while, but he’s got back efforts against better horses that would make him strictly the one to beat for Linda Rice and Manny Franco; #7 RED MILLER (6-1): Chased a runaway winner at this level downstate and would benefit from a pace battle up front, which he’s likely to get. This barn is on the duck as of this writing, but it’s run second and third quite a few times, so it’s not like the horses aren’t running well; #2 LEXINGTON PIKE (10-1): Comes up from Delaware after breaking his maiden in his first race since June. On speed figures, he likely has to improve, but given his relative inexperience, that may still be in the offing, and we may get a square price on a horse that could move forward.

R6

Got Tough (MTO)
Permanent Record
Not Ever

#10 PERMANENT RECORD (4-1): Makes his debut for Chad Brown, who’s brought this European auction purchase to Saratoga. His second dam is a horse named Just the Judge, who won multiple Group 1 races overseas and finished third in a Breeders’ Cup race. The post isn’t ideal, but he’s got every right to have loads of potential; #2 NOT EVER (7/2): Is an Irish-bred son of No Nay Never, and he’s another with a classy female family. His dam was Grade 3-placed in Ireland, and his second dam, Insight, won a Group 2 in France and a Grade 1 in Canada; #1 E Z SPEAKER (8-1): Hammered for $650,000 at auction earlier this year and is kin to a few stakes-caliber horses. There’s definitely class in his bloodlines, and he’s been working steadily, but that pedigree seems to hint he wants to go shorter than today’s two-turn distance.

R7

Private Flight
Turbo Launch
Thundertaker

#4 PRIVATE FLIGHT (2-1): Is a tepid top pick in an absolute mess of a maiden claimer that I wish didn’t kick off the late Pick Four. Alas, we work with what we’ve got, and this gelding goes first off the claim for Linda Rice after some competitive races at this level. Unlike many of his opponents, he’s got some reasons to be optimistic; #8 TURBO LAUNCH (5-1): Tries dirt for the first time and is another from the Rice barn. His two-back effort going long on the lawn at Churchill wasn’t bad, and this is certainly a class drop. Whether or not he can run on dirt is a question mark, but at least we might get a shred of value; #1 THUNDERTAKER (12-1): Merits a look underneath at a price. His last-out effort here in June was awful, but his debut in Indiana wasn’t bad, and that day’s third-place finisher came back to win at next asking. I’d much rather take him at a price than others who will get bet despite looking every bit like horses connections want to move on from.

R8

Whittington Park (MTO)
Inspeightofcharlie
Jack and Jim

#4 INSPEIGHTOFCHARLIE (7/2): Took a step forward last time in his local debut, when he cleared his first-level allowance condition in professional fashion despite being wide turning for home. He’s a consistent sort that’s run some solid races, and Jose Ortiz seeing fit to ride back is a plus; #3 JACK AND JIM (5/2): Threw Manny Franco in his comeback race in June, and the connections will give it another go here. He was 2-for-2 before going to the sidelines after his 2-year-old year, and while this is a tough spot for the level, he certainly can’t be ignored; #12 CONMAN (10-1): Needs some luck to draw in off the AE list, but merits some respect in his comeback race given his strong local record. He’s 2-for-4 with a third at the Spa and has been working well for Tom Morley, who’s been patient with him. If he’s allowed to run, I’ll be using him, especially at his likely price.

R9

Outfielder
Big Destroyer
Intricate Spirit

#2 OUTFIELDER (1-1): Ran 10th in the Group 1 Commonwealth Cup at Royal Ascot and should see the Grade 3 Mahony as a significant class drop. When he fires, he’s very dangerous, as evidenced by an impressive score two back at Churchill. If he’s on his game for Wesley Ward, the race may be for second; #5 BIG DESTROYER (5-1): Is one of two Miguel Clement trainees in here, and he hasn’t done much wrong in two prior starts. He won on debut before going to Aqueduct and finishing second against stakes foes. I think he could be on the improve, and seeing Flavien Prat up inspires some confidence; #4 INTRICATE SPIRIT (6-1): Is one of many that had a very strange trip in the Grade 3 Quick Call. He was fifth that day after rating well off of a very hot pace. If he’s able to sit his desired trip and be a bit more forward, he could have a chance to snag a piece of it.

R10

Princip
Projectability
On the Ledge

#3 PRINCIP (6-1): Is certainly pace-dependent and may need a meltdown to have his best chance, but that may very well materialize in what looks like a speed-heavy Sunday nightcap. He takes a class drop out of a $30,000 claimer to run for $16,000 here, and I’m anticipating him moving the right way when the real running starts; #2 PROJECTABILITY (5/2): Drops significantly in class and goes back to dirt for Linda Rice after a misfire against optional claiming foes earlier this month. He reeled off three wins in a row downstate on dirt, and his third-place finish three back came in a pretty fast race; #6 ON THE LEDGE (5-1): Had every right to need his comeback race in April at Aqueduct, as that was his first try in eight months. He comes back to the dirt here, and he’s got races from 2025 that would fit with this group. If he can channel that form, he’ll be in with a shot.

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,250.83

On Saturday, Saratoga honors newly-enshrined Hall of Fame trainer Christophe Clement with a stakes race renamed for him. The 12-furlong Grade 1 turf marathon was previously the Sword Dancer, and to be honest, the new name makes more sense. Clement won this event five times, including twice in a row with Gufo back in 2021 and 2022.

Sword Dancer, meanwhile, ran on turf three times, but never won on it. The Man o’War presents a similar conundrum, as the original Big Red never ran on the lawn. Other notable curiosities of this ilk include the Forego being run at a Saratoga track the legendary gelding seemed to despise, the Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance’s namesake race shifting from the former Breeders’ Cup Marathon to a race for 2-year-olds, and, unfortunately, the Arlington Million now being run several hundred miles from its one-time home.

Horse racing isn’t alone with little historical oddities, and it’s times like these where we’re reminded that the monologue of the 1998 film “BASEketball” is one of the most prescient, forward-thinking pieces of cinema in history. As it points out, the Minneapolis Lakers moved to Los Angeles, where there are no lakes. The Houston Oilers moved to Tennessee, where there is no oil, and the New Orleans Jazz moved to Salt Lake City, where they don’t allow music.

FRIDAY’S RESULTS: Betting chalk isn’t always a bad thing if you know how to extract value from it. Baliage won the sixth, Glen Airy won the seventh, and the $30 cold double returned $176.40.

SATURDAY’S PLAY: There’s a Pick Four encompassing races six through nine, and I like the sequence quite a bit. There are very few heavy favorites, which means this could overpay relative to how logical horses on my ticket may be. My 50-cent ticket goes as follows: 3,6 with 1,2,3,8 with 1,2,3,10 with 1,7.

TOTAL WAGERED: $32.

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SARATOGA SELECTIONS AND ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Mindfield, Race 2
Longshot: Epitaph, Race 1

R1

Epitaph
Salming
Math Tutor

#1 EPITAPH (8-1): Merits a look at a price in the Saturday opener. He hasn’t won in a while, but his last two efforts have been solid, and the last-out try came in a pretty fast race for the level won by a horse taking a very aggressive class drop. He’s got enough early speed to make the most of the rail draw; #6 SALMING (2-1): Ran very well to stomp non-winners of two last time out and was claimed by Linda Rice. There are some positives, but he’s also going up in class off of what was, by far, the best race he’s ever run. He may need to repeat that effort, and that’s no cinch; #7 MATH TUTOR (4-1): Has some fast races on his sheet, including a wire-to-wire score last time out. He hasn’t run in four months, but he’s got some solid recent works on his sheet and figures to be prominent early.

R2

Mindfield
Saratoga Tea
Upper Echelon

#4 MINDFIELD (7/2): Hammered for $700,000 at the OBS sale in April and comes in off of a five-furlong bullet drill. His dam’s lone prior foal to race was a winner, and his second and third dams were both stakes winners. There’s quite a bit to like, and I’ll be pretty happy if we get the morning line price; #3 SARATOGA TEA (9/2): Ran OK in his lone prior outing, when he hit the front in the stretch before fading to fourth. This barn’s runners tend to improve with experience, and his works since that effort have been very solid; #8 UPPER ECHELON (5-1): Will likely get plenty of attention because of sire Flightline, but his Grade 3-winning dam was no slouch. There are some strong drills on his sheet, and Brad Cox knows how to get 2-year-olds ready to run.

R3

Road Show
Nystateofmind
Cut Down the Nets

#4 ROAD SHOW (7/5): Nearly rallied from last to first in his debut last month and likely gained quite a bit from that experience. I’m expecting a significant step forward, and he’ll likely be one of the heavier favorites on the early part of the program; #5 NYSTATEOFMIND (5-1): Sold for $120,000 in April and sports a few strong gate works for George Weaver. His bottom-side pedigree is solid, as he’s out of a stakes-placed mare, and the presence of Manny Franco is a plus; #7 CUT DOWN THE NETS (3-1): Took a step forward at second asking, when he was a competitive second here last month. That didn’t seem like an overly strong race, but this barn is starting to heat up and he’ll likely be forwardly-placed.

R4

Lady Rose
Last Glory
Top of the Table

#2 LADY ROSE (9/5): Won two back before finishing fourth in what hit me as a strong race for this level. Jose Lezcano has been ice-cold this summer, but he looks live here aboard a runner with inside speed coming out of the Wilson chute; #3 LAST GLORY (8-1): Hasn’t won in a while, but she comes back to her preferred surface and has run some solid races at this one-mile distance. She has enough speed to sit a stalking trip, and that could give her every chance at a bit of a price; #5 TOP OF THE TABLE (3-1): Is the other half of Linda Rice’s 1-2 punch alongside my top pick. She may have needed her last-out clunker at Finger Lakes off of a bit of a layoff, and she has four top-three finishes in five starts at this distance.

R5

Tongue Twister
Considerate City
Bertrille

#2 TONGUE TWISTER (3-1): Is one of several that hasn’t won in a long, long time, but at least there are some reasons to be optimistic. She’s got some tactical speed, and I’m expecting her to be on or near the lead and not going very fast. That could give her a chance at her first win since early-2025; #8 CONSIDERATE CITY (9/5): Has actually never crossed the wire first, with her lone win to date coming by DQ in her debut. She was second in a stakes race last time out, and her usual effort makes her a major player, but given her propensity for not quite getting the job done, I can’t back her at her likely short price; #1 BERTRILLE (5-1): Has had a few strange trips of late where she’s rated while wide in two-turn turf races, which isn’t usually a desirable trip. The inside draw should help her, and it wasn’t long ago she showed some tactical speed at Gulfstream Park.

R6

Belle N Brooke
Libby Lloyd
Tumoohaat

#6 BELLE N BROOKE (7/2): Sold for $240,000 at auction last year and has a few bullet works ahead of her debut in what looks like a loaded 2-year-old maiden race. This daughter of Life Is Good is out of a mare that placed in a Grade 2 event, and that one’s dam, Foxy Danseur, was also a runner; #3 LIBBY LLOYD (9/2): Attracts Flavien Prat in her debut for Chad Brown and is one of several with a massive pedigree. She’s by Into Mischief and out of a stakes-winning mare that’s already produced stakes winner Publisher, and her female family includes the dams of several other graded stakes winners, too; #8 TUMOOHAAT (5/2): Makes a debut that’s highly-anticipated given her pedigree. She’s out of champion Malathaat, and her second dam is Grade 1-winning 2-year-old Dreaming of Julia. That pedigree, though, may mean she gets overbet in here, so watch the board carefully.

R7

Vettriano (MTO)
Spiced Up
No Evidence

#1 SPICED UP (4-1): Nearly got his first win in a long time last time out when beaten a head by a next-out stakes winner. His best races have come at this 5 1/2-furlong Saratoga route, and if he channels that form, he’ll be a major player; #3 NO EVIDENCE (4-1): Prevailed in a first-level allowance last time out, and that day’s runner-up came back to win here last weekend. Flavien Prat rides back for Miguel Clement, and he’s never been worse than third in four career tries over this turf course; #8 ATTFIELD (8-1): Has a few changes in his favor here, as he’ll run against non-stakes foes for the first time since he broke his maiden last summer. He’s been gelded, and he’ll run with Lasix for the first time. A return to the route he won at 12 months ago could also move him forward.

R8

Q B Rocket
Card Man
Vukota

#3 Q B ROCKET (4-1): Debuts for Brad Cox after a series of excellent workouts at Churchill Downs. This son of Gun Runner sold for $1.9 million as a yearling, and while I’m inclined to think he’ll get better with more distance, it also looks like he may be ready to win at first asking; #2 CARD MAN (7/2): Makes his first start for Chad Brown, and like my top pick, there are a couple of strong drills on his tab. His dam, a daughter of Arrogate, is a half-sister to Wavell Avenue, who won the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint in her heyday; #10 VUKOTA (12-1): Is worth a look at a price given some of her local drills, including a last-out bullet drill. Kinnon LaRose has seen plenty of success in his young career, and while his numbers with first-time starters aren’t great, this one draws favorably and looks like he could have some talent.

R9

Ancient Egypt
Survie
Ole Crazy Bone

#1 ANCIENT EGYPT (5-1): Comes over from Europe after just missing in a Group 1 at Longchamp. European turf runners often have an advantage over their American counterparts, and a similar type of effort in the Grade 1 Christophe Clement (formerly the Sword Dancer) would put him right there; #7 SURVIE (6-1): Goes up against the boys after a very impressive score in the Grade 2 Glens Falls. There wasn’t much pace that day, but she closed well and won going away. This is a stiff class test, but she’s another that’s run well in Group 1 company overseas in the past; #3 OLE CRAZY BONE (4-1): Took advantage of an ideal trip to win the Grade 2 Bowling Green and may be dictating terms from the jump once again here. I’m not crazy about the rider switch (especially given the injury to Irad Ortiz, Jr.), and I doubt he’ll have such smooth sailing twice in a row, but speed is a powerful thing in these marathons.

R10

Triskelion
Oscar’s Encore
Cadenza

#7 TRISKELION (5-1): Took down a stakes race at Ellis Park last time out and goes third off the bench in the Galway. She’s never missed the board in six prior outings, first-call rider Luis Saez hops aboard, and when this barn comes in from Kentucky, it usually means business; #3 OSCAR’S ENCORE (6-1): Goes up in class but has two wins in as many local starts and ran well off the bench last time out. She’ll have to perform without Lasix, and this isn’t a weak spot, but it sure seems like she’s doing well and she maintains jockey Jose Ortiz, which is a big positive; #5 CADENZA (7/2): Chased much better last time when third behind Cy Fair in the Grade 3 Coronation Cup over yielding going. She’ll likely get her desired footing here, and her “stalk and pounce” style could put her in an ideal spot when the real running starts. The question is, has she plateaued after an impressive start to her 3-year-old season?

R11

Come Full Circle
Dinner Royale
Calling Card

#7 COME FULL CIRCLE (3-1): Isn’t usually the type of horse I like, breaking from the outside out of the Wilson chute in search of his first win since last summer. However, he’s run up against some tough horses in his last several starts and hasn’t performed badly. I also like that he should have plenty of pace to chase beneath Flavien Prat; #1 DINNER ROYALE (7/2): Has speed and draws a cushy inside post, which makes him a major player despite being a 3-year-old going against older horses. The stretch-out in distance is a question mark, but a strong break could make him one of the ones to catch; #2 CALLING CARD (5/2): Won big last time out but hits me as a vulnerable favorite. He didn’t beat much that day, and he goes from that claimer for non-winners of two to a starter allowance. Perhaps he’ll make me look silly, but I can’t take a short price on him.

R12

Gilbane
Fivedollarsforsox
Before the Wind

#8 GILBANE (5/2): Came back running off the bench, when he was run down in the final strides in his first try since November. I’m expecting a step forward second off the bench in the Saturday nightcap, and if that happens, I think he’ll be tough to deny; #10 FIVEDOLLARSFORSOX (5-1): Is perplexing in his debut for a strong barn. He doesn’t draw well, and he’s a $220,000 auction purchase debuting for a $50,000 tag in August of his 3-year-old season. However, Flavien Prat has been enticed to ride, and it’s not like he’s going up against any world-beaters; #1 BEFORE THE WIND (3-1): Has had plenty of chances as an 0-for-10 maiden, but he does take a drop into the maiden claiming ranks while attracting Jose Ortiz. His last two races aren’t much to brag about, but he does have a few efforts earlier in his career that may make him a player if he can find that form.

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,104.43

You never know how much you need the 2-W-S-X diagonal on your computer keyboard until it goes kaput. That happened to me Wednesday as I tried to write up Friday’s program, and it was horrendous.

Just try writing a sentence like this one: “#2 (INSERT HORSE NAME HERE): Won while six-wide at Saratoga last time out.” Thankfully, I figured out a few workarounds and content got where it needed to go, but of all the issues I expected to encounter this summer, that…was not one of them.

THURSDAY’S RESULTS: The good news is that Combat Move won the opener. The bad news is that the opener was moved off the turf, which cancelled my action. As a reminder, all bets made on turf races assume they stay on that surface. In this case, it burned me, but rules are rules.

FRIDAY’S PLAY: This week’s episode of “Drank’n Champagne” on the On the Wrong Lead network (accessible on YouTube and wherever you get your podcasts) looked at the late Pick Five. I can’t play that sequence starting in the sixth, but I do have strong enough opinions in the first two legs to justify a cold $30 double. I’m singling #8 BALIAGE to start and singling #7 GLEN AIRY to finish. It may be chalky, but I’m hoping to have it for enough money to make the wager worth my while (see what I did with the W key there? That’s called a callback!).

TOTAL WAGERED: $30.

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SARATOGA SELECTIONS AND ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Baliage, Race 6
Longshot: Melody Man, Race 10

R1

Stickupwithoutagun
Who’s Your Zaddy
Into the Light

#4 STICKUPWITHOUTAGUN (3-1): Is a tepid top pick in a tricky Friday opener out of the Wilson chute. He drops in class for this one, and he’ll get to run with Lasix, which may have helped him to a few solid efforts earlier this year. The presence of Jose Ortiz doesn’t hurt, either; #6 WHO’S YOUR ZADDY (5/2): Goes first off the claim for Orlando Noda, who does great work with new acquisitions. He’ll have to work out a trip from the outside, which isn’t easy, but the cutback from a two-turn route could move him forward; #1 INTO THE LIGHT (3-1): Was second at this level and route in his first try against winners last month. He’s once again in position to enjoy an ideal trip from the inside draw, and he may not have to go quite as fast early on to hold his ground.

R2

Atlas a Eye (MTO)
Southern Kiss
Early Autumn

#6 SOUTHERN KISS (2-1): Ran well in her debut at Ellis Park, where she rallied and led in the stretch over yielding going before settling for second. This barn has enjoyed quite a bit of success at this stand this summer, and I’m expecting a move forward at second asking; #5 EARLY AUTUMN (4-1): Ships up from Parx for John Servis, who doesn’t make the trip to New York for kicks. The last-out bullet drill may hint at some precocity, and Hall of Famer John Velazquez hopping aboard could be another clue; #3 MISS MA’AM (5-1): Cuts back from a route where she showed some speed, and this sprint could be more to her liking. Her debut going short on dirt wasn’t terrible, and the experience edge she has over many of these could come in handy. 

R3

Georgia Magic (MTO)
Intellect
Paros

#5 INTELLECT (9/5): Hasn’t won in a while, but he chased a loose-on-the-lead winner that’s been going very well of late last time out. He should get some more pace to chase here, although losing Irad Ortiz, Jr., to injury is certainly notable; #6 PAROS (4-1): Comes back to the turf after a puzzling dirt try against stakes-caliber runners last time out. He’s 2-for-2 on the Saratoga turf course, and Kendrick Carmouche fit him like a glove in a wire-to-wire score two back at Aqueduct; #2 COSMIC YEAR (8/5): Didn’t get much pace to chase in the Grade 3 Kelso and certainly gets some class relief after going against the likes of Mi Bago and Zulu Kingdom. Being a deep closer on the inner turf isn’t always ideal, but ignore Chad Brown and Manny Franco at your own peril.

R4

Abrigado
Toga d’Oro
Swaging

#5 ABRIGADO (7/2): Romped to earn the diploma last time out after a massive class drop. Joe Sharp won the shake that day, and this one comes back pretty quickly, which I’m interpreting as a good sign. Any sort of improvement would give him a chance at two wins in a row; #4 TOGA D’ORO (5/2): Hasn’t won since March of last year and has had quite a few chances since then. However, his last-out effort against similar was solid, and he’s done his best work at this seven-furlong distance; #7 SWAGING (5-1): Runs for the third time this meet and cuts back from two turns to this elongated sprint. He was second in that event, and he was third going 6 1/2 furlongs two back with what probably wasn’t his desired trip.

R5

Disparate Impact
Stream It
Old Time Rocknroll

#1 DISPARATE IMPACT (6-1): Had to navigate a far-outside post at this route last time out, but he still ran well to be second that day. That’s almost never a productive trip, and he gets a much better post here in a race without much other apparent early zip signed on. If he gets comfortable, he could get dangerous; #7 STREAM IT (3-1): May be the more-bet part of Linda Rice’s 1-2 punch despite the wide draw. He drops in class, has been running against some solid horses, and has been working well ahead of his first start since April; #6 OLD TIME ROCKNROLL (2-1): Rallied to finish third in his first try since August, and he could be sharper second off the bench. That didn’t hit me as a very strong event, but he may well have needed that run, and he showed he may relish the added distance he gets here.

R6

Baliage
May December
Cut Your Losses

#8 BALIAGE (5/2): Is bred up and down to be an excellent turf horse. She’s by top European sire Kingman and out of Grade 1 winner Blowout, who in turn is out of French Group 1 winner Beauty Parlour. Everything says this is exactly what she wants, and I think she’s a formidable favorite; #4 MAY DECEMBER (6-1): Debuts for a barn that doesn’t rush its horses, but she’s another bred to love this two-turn route on the grass. She’s kin to stakes winner Adorable Miss, the dam of two other turf stakes winners, and her second dam is Grade 1-winning router Favorite Funtime; #5 CUT YOUR LOSSES (6-1): Certainly has a distance-focused pedigree, being by Epicenter and out of a mare that’s kin to Grade 1-placed Gouverneur Morris and stakes winner Final Jeopardy. The question is, does she want turf, or does she just want this two-turn route?

R7

Glen Airy
Apalta
Sharp Spark

#7 GLEN AIRY (8/5): Takes a big, big drop in class for some of the most aggressive connections on the grounds. He runs for a $16,000 tag just two starts after being beaten a neck against $80,000 optional claimers at Churchill, and he should be able to sit off of a fast pace and come rolling late; #9 APALTA (9/2): Is one of two closers trained by Ilkay Kantarmaci, and he hasn’t run at a level like this in quite some time. He may be pace-dependent, but he’ll almost certainly get one to run at beneath Manny Franco; #5 SHARP SPARK (5-1): Ran OK to be fourth at this route last time out and this, on paper, feels like a softer spot. Franco opts to ride his stablemate, which may not be ideal, but he’s another who figures to benefit from the likely race shape.

R8

Bold Strength
Contrary Thinking
Eliminate

#7 BOLD STRENGTH (3-1): Draws a friendly outside post and ran very well at this distance last time at Churchill. He ran very quickly that day, and the third-place finisher came back to win at next asking. This is a highly-competitive group, but he could be going the right way for connections that win a lot of races; #2 CONTRARY THINKING (5/2): Has run well here twice since going to Amelia Green’s barn, but has run into a pair of strong performances and had to settle for two runner-up finishes. He once again figures to be forwardly-placed, and it wouldn’t be surprising if he broke through here; #5 ELIMINATE (9/2): Has won two of his last three and will do his best running late. A one-turn mile probably suits him better, but he’s run well here in the past and should get a pace to run at, which could set up for him.

R9

Zeitlos
Capturing
Miss Vyvyanne

#9 ZEITLOS (2-1): Hasn’t won in a while, but she’s also been running against top-class horses and looms large in the Smart and Fancy. Her effort in the last two renewals of the Caress were very good, and if she runs that type of race here, it could easily land her in the winner’s circle for the first time since early-2025; #5 CAPTURING (5-1): Got up at the last possible moment against optional claimers and goes up in class for this event. Two of her three wins to date have come at this 5 1/2-furlong distance, and if she can run well without Lasix, she could be heard from late in the game; #6 MISS VYVYANNE (5/2): Has made a name for herself north of the border and most recently beat the boys in the Grade 2 Highlander. The two-part question is, can she replicate that form at Saratoga, and can she survive what figures to be a hotly-contested early pace?

R10

Melody Man
About Face
Minotaur

#3 MELODY MAN (8-1): Has the potential to be the lone speed in the Friday nightcap, which could make him dangerous in this two-turn route on the inner turf. He ran well going two turns back in March at Gulfstream, and he could get loose at a price; #2 ABOUT FACE (2-1): Drops in for a tag, and his lone turf race to date was by far the best race he’s run. He was second in that race two back at Churchill, a similar type of effort would make him very competitive, and he’s not a terrible favorite; #4 MINOTAUR (8-1): Has a history of adventurous trips and didn’t run terribly in his local debut. He was fourth despite a wide trip that day, and he’s eligible to improve second off the bench given a trip that saves a bit more ground.

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,104.43

As many of you know, my wife is a fifth-grade teacher at a public school just outside Oakland in Northern California’s Bay Area. A week or two ago, I shared her Amazon wishlist, which contained supplies for her 26 students to use during the year.

Thursday is her first day of the 2026-27 school year (even after 13 years of living out here, that blows my mind, since New York starts after Labor Day). Her wishlist got completely handled, and she and I are both tremendously thankful for the support from friends, family, loved ones, and people who read my stuff each Saratoga season.

Her job is a hard one. New challenges come up every single day from a variety of different directions. She handles all of that about as well as one can, and that’s one of many reasons I love her very much.

To those who made her job a little easier by helping out, thank you. I owe you one.

WEDNESDAY’S RESULTS: Juneau ran very well in the second race, but couldn’t quite get to the winner. I dropped $25.

THURSDAY’S PLAY: I’m high on #3 COMBAT MOVE in the opener (she was almost my best bet of the day), and I’ll bet accordingly. I’ll have a $20 win bet on her, and I’ll single her to start $5 early doubles that use #2 MO THE MERRIER and #6 ONEPAC in the second. I wish I could play the early Pick Five, but I’d need to hit the “ALL” button in the third leg, and that drives up the ticket price.

TOTAL WAGERED: $30.

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SARATOGA SELECTIONS AND ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Parchment Party, Race 8
Longshot: Holy Seven, Race 9

R1

Combat Move
Aperitif
My Lil Army Girl

#3 COMBAT MOVE (3-1): Is bred up and down for turf and gets it at second asking in the Thursday opener. She rallied to finish a very close second in her debut, which was rained off the grass and onto the main track. Logical improvement second time out, on a surface she should relish, would make her tough; #6 APERITIF (5/2): Adds blinkers and Irad Ortiz, Jr., after a near-miss last time out. At 0-for-9, she’s had some chances, but she’s also been very competitive at this level and has some reasons she could break through here; #5 MY LIL ARMY GIRL (4-1): Was third in the race my top pick exits and goes back to the lawn second off the claim for a barn that’s enjoyed a lot of success so far this summer. She probably needs to move forward, but there are some reasons that could happen.

R2

Mo the Merrier
Onepac
The Standard

#2 MO THE MERRIER (9/5): Drops in for a tag after an OK race in the slop going a bit longer last time out. Irad sees fit to hop aboard, which is a massive jockey switch, and given the form he’s shown to date, he hits me as strictly the one to beat; #6 ONEPAC (4-1): Seems like the main speed in this event and set blazing fractions last time out. That day’s winner came back to repeat against first-level allowance foes, and I don’t think he’ll need to go nearly as quickly to make the lead here; #5 THE STANDARD (2-1): Was a close-up second last time out, but that race was far from impressive. Despite an ideal trip, he couldn’t reel in a horse that was previously an 0-for-16 maiden. On speed figures, he more than fits, but he didn’t pass the eye test last time out, so I simply can’t back him on top.

R3

Lady Wisdom
Timia
Babcie

#1 LADY WISDOM (7/5): Is a tepid top pick in a starter allowance out of the Wilson chute where I don’t have a strong opinion. She ran an OK second behind a perfect-trip winner last time out at this level and route, and this barn has started to heat up, with three wins and four seconds in 12 starts this season; #5 TIMIA (5/2): Hasn’t won in seven starts this year, but she also hasn’t been worse than third in that timespan. She’s got plenty of early speed, and while she may not be alone up front, she seems to be doing well and can’t be ignored; #4 BABCIE (4-1): Ran a big one last time out to break her maiden at second asking. That was against maiden claimers, though, and it was going a bit shorter. The added distance and jump in class represent significant hills to climb, though it’s not like this is the strongest race we’ll see at this level this summer.

R4

Purloin (MTO)
Midnight Concerto
Tulip

#4 MIDNIGHT CONCERTO (7/2): Cuts back after running a solid third in a marathon last month and attracts Jose Ortiz in this pretty classy optional claimer. She was a half-length away from winning the Mount Vernon two back, and while she may still be a bit pace-dependent, it seems like she’s developed a bit more tactical speed as a 5-year-old; #5 TULIP (5/2): May sit an ideal trip on a pretty easy lead, as she did two back when she broke her maiden at Churchill. Grade 3 waters were just too deep last time out over the synthetic at Woodbine, and while she is a 3-year-old running against older, this feels like the right spot; #2 MAKE YOU MINE (3-1): Came off a very long break last time out and rallied to finish third going a mile. She won first time out going longer than this back in France, and while I wonder if she’ll get enough pace to sit the trip she seems to really want, it’s certainly possible that the last-out effort was a prep for this one.

R5

Vekomancer
Mascara
Cloudy Chance

#3 VEKOMANCER (2-1): Takes a massive class drop, comes back to dirt, and attracts Manny Franco for high-percentage trainer Linda Rice. This is a bit of an alarming spot, for sure, but these are aggressive connections that aren’t afraid to find soft spots because they’re constantly claiming horses at various tracks; #8 MASCARA (3-1): Hasn’t won since an off-the-turf race at Belterra in late-September, but she’s been competitive against similar in each of her last two starts. Her two-back race at Churchill was a good one, and she should show speed with Irad aboard; #9 CLOUDY CHANCE (6-1): Hits me as the best of the rest dropping in class for a barn due to get going. Her last two weren’t great, but she has back races from earlier this year that would make her a player, and if she channels that form, she could hit the board at a bit of a price.

R6

Anna’s Promise (MTO)
Fionn
Table Flirt

#1 FIONN (6/5): Comes back to the races after a layoff of nearly seven months and will be tough if she’s on her game. She’s won seven of 11 starts, including the Grade 1 Belmont Oaks over Nitrogen. This one-mile distance may be a hair short for her, but this feels like a great comeback spot on the road to bigger and better things; #3 TABLE FLIRT (3-1): Was a competitive fifth in a strong renewal of the De La Rose last month and is able to run with Lasix in this spot. She doesn’t have the back class of the heavy favorite, but she’s run in some tough spots and shown some talent; #4 READY TO JAM (8-1): Is the “other Brad Cox” in here and stretches out after some uninspiring sprints. It’s possible she’s peaked, and maybe she’s here just to make sure the race had enough entries to go, but she does have some 2025 speed figures that would give her a puncher’s chance.

R7

Shoot It True
Next On Stage (MTO)
Highway Harmony

#6 SHOOT IT TRUE (1-1): Has been running against heavy hitters off late and drops in class for this event. This means she gets to run with Lasix, which should help (not having to run against the likes of Roja is a plus, too). We may not get much of a price, but she seems like a formidable favorite; #3 HIGHWAY HARMONY (5/2): Set an Aqueduct track record that will never be broken in the John Hettinger on closing day and comes into this one on a four-race win streak. That turf course was very, very firm, and I’m not sure she’ll be able to replicate that effort against this bunch, but if she can, she’ll have a big chance to spring a mild upset; #1 ABIENTOT (6-1): Hasn’t won since October of 2024, but figures to be the beneficiary if they go fast up front early on. Given the abundance of gate speed to her outside, that seems likely, and she’s never been worse than third in four tries over this turf course.

R8

Parchment Party
Interceptor
Stars and Stripes

#1 PARCHMENT PARTY (8/5): Didn’t run well in the Grade 2 Suburban, but gets the class level and distance he wants in the Birdstone. He won this race a year ago before a try at the Group 1 Melbourne Cup, and he’s proven very, very tough at these marathon trips. If he and John Velazquez get comfortable, the race may be for second; #6 INTERCEPTOR (9/2): Was second behind my top pick in the slop at Churchill two back and hasn’t run a bad one this season. As bizarre as it sounds, the nine-furlong trip may have just been too short for him last time out. I like his tactical speed, and that could allow him to sit an ideal stalking trip; #3 STARS AND STRIPES (5/2): Is the second half of a powerful 1-2 punch for Hall of Famer Bill Mott. The marathon trip is a complete unknown, but there’s distance in his pedigree and he’s certainly competitive on speed figures.

R9

Holy Seven
Criteria
Royal Enclosure

#10 HOLY SEVEN (5-1): May have needed his last-out clunker off a long break, and to be fair, he might’ve lost that race when he broke through the gate. He still helped set a very fast pace that day, and assuming he’s more fit (both physically and mentally) in the Thursday finale, I think there’s quite a bit to like, especially at or near the 5-1 morning line price; #2 CRITERIA (5/2): Has run well to pick up a few minor awards in two starts here this summer. His second behind a next-out winner two back was sharp, and he may not have totally cared for the sloppy, sealed track a few weeks ago; #4 ROYAL ENCLOSURE (8-1): Debuts for Jorge Abreu and boasts a few eye-catching workouts ahead of his unveiling. He’s a son of Yaupon, whose offspring can be precocious, and his dam is kin to some nice horses (including multiple stakes winner Maya’s Storm and 16-time winner Diesel’s Prize).

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,129.43

It’s tough to discuss what happened Sunday and Monday concisely, but I’ll do my best.

Connections with horses at Fair Hill, in Maryland, sent several runners to Saratoga and Monmouth for races on Sunday. They won four races with five entrants, and in multiple instances, these horses blew the doors off their competition at big prices. Back-to-back such winners at Monmouth, though, combined for a record-low daily double given the win prices involved. This means someone (or some group) absolutely, positively hammered that particular wager and, presumably, knew something the general public did not.

Horses from Fair Hill were set to run in races Monday at Presque Isle and Mountaineer, and a source told Pat Cummings of the National Thoroughbred Alliance that bookmakers overseas were potentially on the hook for a hefty sum. However, both runners scratched, and the Mountaineer runner was pulled from its race with 10 minutes to post (when that one was as prohibitive a betting favorite as you’ll see).

An investigation has begun, and as I write this Monday night, I’d wager this is far from over. It’s possible these trainers simply had horses ready to go at Fair Hill and made the most of it. However, the ultra-low double payout has me (and many others) concerned that what actually happened was far more nefarious. For many reasons, I’m skeptical we’ll know the full story in short order (remember, it took the federal government getting involved to make Jason Servis and Jorge Navarro go away), but I’m willing to bet we’ll hear some whoppers along the way.

SUNDAY’S RESULTS: In attempting to connect on the Grand Slam, I struck out swinging. Twenty Six Black ran fourth, key horse Hard Circle ran third, and I dropped $38.

WEDNESDAY’S PLAY: I’ll focus on the second, where I’m hoping #2 JUNEAU runs back to an OK debut on the drop in for a tag. I’ll have a $20 win bet on that one, and I’ll also play a cold $5 double starting there that singles Juneau and likely third-race favorite #7 LOTS OF KISSES.

TOTAL WAGERED: $25.

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SARATOGA SELECTIONS AND ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Juneau, Race 2
Longshot: Bankthemoneyhoney, Race 6

R1

Cyber Ninja
Philip My Dear
Feeling Festive

#4 CYBER NINJA (5/2): Nearly overcame significant issues last time out when a hard-luck second in the Jonathan Kiser. He should get some pace to close into in the Michael G. Walsh, and a similar type of effort would make him the one to beat in the Wednesday opener; #7 PHILIP MY DEAR (4-1): Interests me the most of the ones likely to go early on. He didn’t sit his desired trip last time at Colonial, where he was seventh of nine early on. He wants to be forward, and that trip led to a solid score two back in May; #3 FEELING FESTIVE (3-1): Is pretty lightly-raced, as this will be just his third start. He comes in off of a professional victory at Colonial, and while this feels like a jump in class, he could certainly have plenty of room to move forward.

R2

Juneau
Business Math
Dream About

#2 JUNEAU (5-1): Runs for a tag for the first time after a disappointing local debut. However, her two-back effort at Churchill wasn’t bad, and she gets a rider upgrade to Luis Saez for this event. If she can channel the mid-June form, she hits me as the one to beat (and we may get a decent price given the last-out clunker); #4 BUSINESS MATH (3-1): May not have cared for the slop in her unveiling, when she was fairly close early on before finishing sixth of seven. She’s another dropping in class, and she does so for a Hall of Fame trainer whose runners tend to get better with experience; #3 DREAM ABOUT (7/2): Debuts for Al Stall, who means business when he ships in. Her works two and three back look solid enough, and while this barn’s numbers with all first-time starters aren’t great (9%, per Brisnet), they’re much better with runners debuting for a tag (24%, per the same source).

R3

Lots of Kisses
R P Byrne
Key Actress

#7 LOTS OF KISSES (7/5): Had a lot of trouble last time out and was still only beaten just a half-length that day. It’s fair to assume she was best in that spot, and if she’s able to get a cleaner trip in this one, Wednesday is likely graduation day; #4 R P BYRNE (3-1): Was second in the race my top pick exits, but sat a much cleaner trip than that rival. She’s got some speed, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see her on or near the lead early in her second start off the bench; #2 KEY ACTRESS (4-1): Goes to the barn of Linda Rice and comes back to the grass. She’s had quite a few chances, and her best races have come going two turns rather than one, but Rice is one of the best in the business with new acquisitions and, at a minimum, she’s another that should be forwardly-placed.

R4

Classic Time
Inexorable
Power Attack

#4 CLASSIC TIME (3-1): Takes a significant drop in class and got pretty good over the winter, when he won back-to-back races at Fair Grounds and Oaklawn. Even his fourh-place finish two back wasn’t bad, and if Norm Casse has him ready to go over a surface he won on back in 2024, he’ll be a major player; #5 INEXORABLE (5/2): Won at this distance three back at Keeneland and would benefit from a fast pace. I’m not sure whether or not he’ll get that setup, so his likely price hits me as a slight underlay, but this seven-time winner has back races that more than fit with this bunch; #2 POWER ATTACK (6-1): Hits me as the best of the rest and will look for his fourth win of the season here. He comes back to the dirt, gets Jose Ortiz, and won a very fast race earlier this year at Tampa (albeit against a weaker group).

R5

Adrian (MTO)
Brilliante
Artistic Success

#5 BRILLIANTE (4/5): Isn’t exactly exciting to bet after failing as an even-money favorite last time out, but at least she had excuses that day. She didn’t break well and rated behind a slow early pace. She gets one more chance here, especially considering that it’s not like she lines up against any world-beaters; #8 ARTISTIC SUCCESS (3-1): Feels like the main speed in here, which is always a good thing in two-turn races on the inner turf. She set a legitimate pace for the level last time out before finishing third, and she could have some room to move forward in her third start off the bench for Joe Sharp; #6 GREYJOY (6-1): Has collected minor awards in each of her last two starts at this level and looks competitive again here. This barn has been ice-cold from a win perspective, but five of its 11 runners (as of this writing) have hit the board, so it’s not like horses are running terribly.

R6

Southern Kiss (AE)
Bankthemoneyhoney
Miss Ma’am (AE)

#12 SOUTHERN KISS (3-1): Needs two scratches to run but feels like the one to beat if she draws in. Her debut over yielding going at Ellis Park was solid, as she rallied and led briefly before settling for second. Mark Casse’s enjoyed a great meet to this point, and I’m expecting a move forward if she goes; #4 BANKTHEMONEYHONEY (8-1): Is worth a look at a price in her unveiling. She’s a full sister to a debut winner, and her bottom-side pedigree includes the dams of graded stakes winner Celtic New Year and champion female turfer Perfect Sting, among others. Linda Rice trainees sometimes need a race to get going, but I think this one may be a runner; #14 MISS MA’AM (6-1): Needs even more luck than my top pick as far as drawing in is concerned, but she’s got some things going for her. She made up ground in her debut on dirt, then flashed speed in her first try on the grass. Cutting back to a sprint could be just what she wants.

R7

Under the Moon
Lauren’s Time
In the Queue

#3 UNDER THE MOON (4-1): Has several strong works on her tab ahead of her debut in what hits me as a wide-open baby race for New York-breds. She wasn’t a big auction buy, but her bottom-side pedigree is strong, as her second dam won on debut and placed in multiple stakes races before throwing six winners; #6 LAUREN’S TIME (6-1): Sold for $150,000 at auction last summer and is bred to be precocious. Offspring of sire Yaupon have been running very well, and her dam was a five-time winner that placed in stakes races as a 2-year-old. Add in a few flashy drills for Chad Brown, and there’s plenty to like; #4 IN THE QUEUE (8-1): Showed some speed in her debut and has a right to improve here at a bit of a price. Her two drills since that race both look sharp, and the presence of jockey Luis Saez hints that she’ll be on or near the lead here as well. 

R8

Sailaway
Answered Prayers
Higher Force

#5 SAILAWAY (5-1): Goes from turf to dirt and takes a significant drop in class to run here. Her efforts two and three back going two turns on dirt were very solid, her lone start over this main track was a wire-to-wire score out of the Wilson chute, and she has enough speed to sit an ideal “stalk and pounce” trip; #1 ANSWERED PRAYERS (5/2): Has yet to run a bad race around two turns for Bill Mott and was most recently a close-up second in late-June at Churchill. The rail draw may not be ideal, and she’s a 3-year-old going up against older horses, but she’s also shown some ability and wouldn’t be a surprising winner; #3 HIGHER FORCE (10-1): Feels like the main early speed in this race, and some of her best races have come going two turns while on the lead. She won going a mile last time out downstate after adding blinkers, and while this is a tougher field, I think she could hang on for a piece of it at a price.

R9

Prairie Princess (MTO)
Mistborn
Gum

#9 MISTBORN (8/5): Will likely be a popular single to finish out the Wednesday program, and for good reason. She’s run up against several solid horses in her last two starts and was second last time out behind a runner that repeated at next asking against winners. I don’t love the Monmouth works, but this is a drop in class and she sure looks like the most logical winner; #5 GUN (9/2): Just missed two back at Laurel and had some trouble last time out when third against similar in her local debut. I’m not sure how much she really wants to win given some of her running lines, but she’s consistent and attracts Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez; #7 BOURBON MILK PUNCH (7/2): May be the controlling speed and has a chance if she can get back to her 2025 form for a trainer enjoying lots of success this summer. However, her two races this year leave quite a bit to be desired. Maybe the drop to this level wakes her up, but she’s now 0-for-11, so I’d hesitate to take too short of a price.