SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (8/15/19)

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $820.10

If you haven’t read Teresa Genaro’s article from earlier this week on the stuff she’s had to deal with, take some time and seek it out. There’s been a lot of nonsense on social media this past week, and a lot of it’s been pretty difficult to digest. It got to where I actually had to put Twitter away for a while, which, as those who know me will attest, has probably never happened before.

I don’t agree with every word Teresa’s said or tweeted, but you don’t have to do that to see that some of the stuff lobbed in her direction has been absolutely vile. This isn’t a political matter, so don’t even go there. It’s a matter of human decency. When did it become so hard to engage in respectful discourse with others who have differing opinions? This baffles me, and I refuse to think I’m somehow less of a person for expecting others to conduct themselves as if they can’t hide behind a device connected to the Internet.

Let’s all be nice to each other, huh?

WEDNESDAY’S RESULTS: Aristocratic ran well, but got reeled in late after setting a very fast pace. We dropped $30.

THURSDAY’S PLAY: I’m taking a swing in the sixth race, where I like a pair of longshots on top. I’ll key #3 FALSE INFO and #4 MY AMANJENA on top of $2 exactas that use those two, #6 MO ZONE, #11 DULL KNIFE, and #12 SOUTHERN BRIGADE underneath. Additionally, I’ll use my top two in $2 doubles that start in the sixth and end with #1 ANDRETTA and #9 HOLLYWOOD CAT in the seventh.

TOTAL WAGERED: $24

– – – – –

BEST BET: Amazing Audrey, Race 1
LONGSHOT: False Info, Race 6

R1

Amazing Audrey
Bareeqa
Frozen Hannah

#2 AMAZING AUDREY: Has finished in the top two in each of her last seven starts and looms large on the drop in class. Her lone start to date over this turf course was an emphatic win, and her best effort would likely crush these; #4 BAREEQA: Is eligible to improve in her second start off of a brief freshening. She likes Saratoga and completes a strong 1-2 punch for the Gargan barn; #1 FROZEN HANNAH: Cruised in the slop at Indiana Grand in a race that doubled as her first start of this outfit. She comes back to turf and ran several solid races on the lawn at Gulfstream this past spring.

R2

British Idiom
Talk You Out of It
Esther’s Fortune

#3 BRITISH IDIOM: Debuts off of a very strong five-furlong gate drill at Churchill. That’s not the only strong move in her work tab, and this barn knows how to win with first-time starters; #10 TALK YOU OUT OF IT: Is already making her fifth start in this race, and the outside draw is a plus. She was third in a stakes race two back, and this doesn’t seem like the strongest race for the level; #8 ESTHER’S FORTUNE: Has a very classy pedigree and flashed some talent in a July 15 drill over this track. When Jose Ortiz rides for this barn, his mounts are usually live.

R3

No Dozing
Plainsman
Tale of Silence

#3 NO DOZING: Has done his best running at this distance and comes in off a second-place finish in an ungraded stakes race at Delaware. That day’s third-place finisher has since come back to win, and this one is making his third start off the bench; #2 PLAINSMAN: Got very good late last year, when he reeled off three wins in a row (including a Grade 3 score). He hasn’t run since and makes his first start for a new barn, but he’s worked very well ahead of his 2019 debut; #4 TALE OF SILENCE: Has tried tough company this year, including the likes of Mitole and McKinzie in the Grade 1 Met Mile. The class drop should help, and there’s speed in here that could set things up for him.

R4

Mystic Lancelot
Relentless Dancer
Now Is

#4 MYSTIC LANCELOT: Hammered for $450,000 earlier this year and has trained well for trainer Todd Pletcher. John Velazquez hops aboard, and he seems very well-meant; #2 RELENTLESS DANCER: Sold for $85,000 earlier this year despite a modest pedigree and has reeled off four straight bullets ahead of his debut. This barn can win with first-time starters, and he may be a nice price; #12 NOW IS: Ran second in an ungraded stakes race last time out at Monmouth and is a threat if he draws in off the AE list. He has an experience edge over this group that could prove helpful.

R5

Sneakiness
Cobble Hill
Swick

#5 SNEAKINESS: Comes back to dirt after an unsuccessful try on turf. He’s been gelded and drops down in class, and his past few works have been strong ahead of this event; #11 COBBLE HILL: Hasn’t run since December, and the drop in class is a bit alarming, but he’s worked well and draws a cushy outside post. He’s another running as a first-time gelding; #7 SWICK: Completes a trifecta of class-droppers and comes in off of two events that seemed fairly strong. This group isn’t nearly as accomplished, so an improved effort could be in the cards.

R6

False Info
My Amanjena
Dull Knife

#3 FALSE INFO: Has been gelded and drops in class for this race. He ran several solid races downstate earlier this year, and his morning line odds hit me as a substantial overlay; #4 MY AMANJENA: Didn’t run well earlier in the meet against similar, but that was his first poor effort since being switched to the turf. I’m willing to give him another shot, especially at his likely price; #11 DULL KNIFE: Drops way down in class on the trip north from Monmouth, but I have my doubts. He’s winless since coming to North America, the post is lousy, and it’s tough for me to trust him at a short price.

R7

Saloon Girl (MTO)
Hollywood Cat
Bond entry

#9 HOLLYWOOD CAT: Came back running off the layoff and returns to the state-bred ranks in this event. Jason Servis tends to keep horses on the right track, and he hits me as the one to beat; #1 ANDRETTA: Put it all together last time out, when she graduated at this route despite a horrible post. She faces winners for the first time, but the light bulb may have come on; #2 ANDARTA: Has a win at this route and almost certainly needed her most recent outing. If she’s fitter for this event and can channel her 2018 form, she’s got a shot at a big price.

R8

Bonita Bianca
Holiday Disguise
Pauseforthecause

#2 BONITA BIANCA: Cuts back from a mile to a distance she’s proven to like. She won this race a season ago and could sit a perfect stalking trip off of a solid early pace; #1 HOLIDAY DISGUISE: Has won several stakes races at this level and is the likely favorite. She’ll likely get plenty of pace to run at, but the rail draw is a red flag given the traffic she may have to work through; #4 PAUSEFORTHECAUSE: Hasn’t won in a while, but does her best running at Saratoga and exits an experiment going further than she wants to run. This is her preferred trip over her preferred track, and she cannot be ignored.

R9

Nasty Affair (MTO)
Double Happiness
Kerry’s Ring

#7 DOUBLE HAPPINESS: Debuts for a strong barn and is bred to be a good one. She’s by More Than Ready, which means she should like turf, and her dam was a stakes-placed runner (one that has already thrown another stakes-placed runner named John’s Island); #8 KERRY’S RING: May be a heavy favorite off of two straight second-place finishes downstate. She’s logical, but she burned a lot of money last time out without an apparent excuse, so it wouldn’t stun me if she loses again here; #12 CRESCENT LADY: Was a close-up third after pressing fast fractions in her most recent start. The post is a killer, but she may be able to clear most of this field early on.

SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (8/14/19)

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $850.10

Okay, folks, I need your help. I work for a chiropractic college, and later this week, I’ll be helping put on our annual conference. It’s going to be a lot of fun, but it’s also going to be a lot of work (we’re talking 12-16 hours a day later this week, so caffeine will likely be its own separate food group).

To make the bankroll section a bit easier to write later this week, and to provide some fresh content very few others are putting forth, I’m opening up the floor to you. Tweet me your comments and questions at @AndrewChampagne, or use the “contact” feature at AndrewChampagne.com. I read everything that comes in, and if you do this, you may see your name and submission up in lights later this week (I’m not cool enough for a Reddit “ask me anything,” so this will have to do).

I’ve long prided myself on putting forth content people actively want to read. This period is going to be as good as you make it, so let’s have some fun.

SUNDAY’S RESULTS: Sister Peacock ran a great race on the lead over a turf course that has not played kindly to speed. Unfortunately, she had to settle for third, and $24 worth of doubles went up in smoke.

WEDNESDAY’S PLAY: I’ll focus on the third race, where I think #4 ARISTOCRATIC could be very tough to catch on the drop in class. I’ll keep this really simple and plunk down $30 on him to win.

TOTAL WAGERED: $30

– – – – –

BEST BET: Kimari, Race 7
LONGSHOT: Dancingwthdaffodls, Race 10

R1

Snap Decision
Zanzi Win
Renown

#7 SNAP DECISION: Cruised home last time out at Monmouth and faces winners over fences for the first time. He showed a new dimension being on the lead that day, and that style could help him here; #1 ZANZI WIN: Gets Lasix in his American debut and has been running well of late in Europe. This barn has had a strong year to this point; #4 RENOWN: Lost his rider last time out but showed some talent in his prior three starts over fences. He’s run well on the flat here before and could sit a nice stalking trip.

R2

Beyond Gone
Dan the Man Can
More Thunder

#5 BEYOND GONE: Was beaten just a length in his debut earlier in the meet and is in line to take a big step forward. This barn’s horses often move way up at second asking, and Jose Ortiz hops aboard; #3 DAN THE MAN CAN: Comes back to dirt after a failed turf experiment and adds Lasix in this spot. His debut outing was pretty good, and he should be prominent early; #2 MORE THUNDER: Has a few solid workouts ahead of his unveiling and has a right to be precocious given that he’s a son of Goldencents. It helps that Rosario has been enticed to ride.

R3

Aristocratic
Reason to Soar
Orpheus

#4 ARISTOCRATIC: Drops way down in class and seems like the lone early speed in this event. He’s tired in his last several starts, but these waters are far more shallow and he may not have to go too fast early on to make the lead; #3 REASON TO SOAR: Is another class-dropper, and this one comes in from Florida off of a significant layoff. He’s been running against much better, but he hasn’t been the same horse he was in 2018 in four starts this season; #6 ORPHEUS: Hasn’t won in a while but has run second twice at this meet. He’d benefit from a faster-than-expected early pace and should come running late.

R4

Daddy Knows (MTO)
Gosilently
Bad Boy

#7 GOSILENTLY: Makes his second start off the bench and figures to be the main speed. He should improve given the prior race, and it helps that he’s run well twice at this distance; #11 BAD GUY: Has run fairly well in all three of his recent turf starts and may very well be good enough to overcome the terrible post. Irad Ortiz, Jr., signs on to ride, and they should be rolling down the stretch; #5 HONORABLE HERO: Hasn’t won in a while but tried stakes company last time out. He’s better-spotted here and has tactical speed.

R5

Katama Moonlight
Stand for the Flag
My Bronx Tail

#2 KATAMA MOONLIGHT: Hasn’t run since December, but has worked lights-out for powerhouse connections ahead of her return to the races. If she runs to her drills, she could be tough to beat; #6 STAND FOR THE FLAG: Suffered a tough beat here last year in her lone start to date, and has since moved to the Jason Servis barn. This outfit has had lots of success at this meet and can win with horses off of long layoffs; #4 MY BRONX TAIL: Got caught late in her first start since July of 2018 last time out and will almost certainly make the lead here. The question is, does she want to go seven furlongs?

R6

Astoria Kitten
Devils Rendezvous
More Than Silver

#3 ASTORIA KITTEN: Debuts for a hot barn and may not have to be too much to beat these. She’s by Kitten’s Joy and out of a Distorted Humor mare, so she has every right to be a runner; #6 DEVILS RENDEZVOUS: Was a one-paced fifth in her debut on the main track, but she may have needed the race and is bred to like the turf. Her works downstate since that race have been sharp; #4 MORE THAN SILVER: Is bred up and down for turf, so her debut on the main track is easy for me to throw out. She could improve and grab a piece of this at a price.

R7

Kimari
Abscond
Champagne Humor

#5 KIMARI: Just missed in a Group 2 at Royal Ascot and seems to tower over this group. Prior to the trip overseas, she romped by 15 lengths at Keeneland, and a similar effort would thump this bunch; #4 ABSCOND: Got her nose down in her debut at Ellis Park, and that day’s second-place finisher has since come back to win. This barn is quietly one of the best in the country with 2-year-olds; #6 CHAMPAGNE HUMOR: Isn’t just a hunch play, as she rallied to top several next-out winners in her unveiling at Gulfstream. The Florida trainer brings a Gulfstream-based rider up for this event, which is intriguing.

R8

Allured
Passcode
Violent Delights

#7 ALLURED: Hasn’t run since February, but has back form that would crush these and has been gelded since his last start. This is the weakest group he’s ever faced, and if he’s ready, he should win easily; #8 PASSCODE: Just missed here earlier in the meet and stretches out a bit in distance for new connections. He’s got plenty of speed and draws a solid outside post; #4 VIOLENT DELIGHTS: Comes back to dirt and drops back to the right level after a clunker against a strong starter allowance group on turf. He’s run well on dirt in the past and will likely be a square price.

R9

Turco Bravo (MTO)
Golden Spear
Total Tap

#11 GOLDEN SPEAR: Drops down in class and gets a tepid top selection in a wide-open turf race. The post is a big problem, but he may be talented enough to overcome it; #4 TOTAL TAP: Has hit the board in each of his last five starts and chased a next-out winner last time out at Monmouth. Castellano sees fit to ride, and that can’t be ignored; #10 SYCAMORE LANE: Has chased a solid horse for the level in each of his last two starts and may have caught a weaker field here. He’s won over this turf course before and has some tactical speed.

R10

Carrizo (MTO)
Dancingwthdaffodls
Questeq

#8 DANCINGWTHDAFFODLS: Didn’t have a great trip earlier in the meet, but can close and attracts Jose Ortiz. Her race two back was pretty good, and she could come running late at a nice price; #9 QUESTEQ: Exits the same race as my top pick and gets a big rider switch to Javier Castellano. She hasn’t run in a while, but she’s another that can run well late; #1 A DIXIE TWISTER: Has won two in a row and takes on tougher competition here. She draws well; the question is, does she have enough speed to utilize the rail draw to her advantage?

SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (8/11/19)

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $874.10

I’ll preface this by saying that Got Stormy is a classy racehorse. It takes class for a horse to come back quickly and win a Grade 1, as she did in Saturday’s Fourstardave. She’s an honest horse, and she can’t control what she runs against.

However, I can’t help but feel like this year’s group of American turf milers is a subpar one. When the world’s top horses come together later this year in the Breeders’ Cup at Santa Anita, I’m inclined to use every European runner I can afford in multi-race exotics that include the Mile. With all due respect to Got Stormy, who did something that’s very difficult to do, I just don’t think she beat that much, and I’m also not putting much stock into a time posted on arguably the fastest turf course in Saratoga history.

SATURDAY’S RESULTS: Turf War was left with too much to do late, and doubles and Pick Threes fizzled as a result. We dropped $33.

SUNDAY’S PLAY: I’ll focus on doubles later on in the program. My $6 tickets start in the eighth with #1 FREE KITTY and #3 TALK VEUVE TO ME and finish with #3 SISTER PEACOCK and #9 BOHEMIAN BOURBON in the ninth.

TOTAL WAGERED: $24

– – – – –

BEST BET: Maker entry, Race 2
LONGSHOT: Bohemian Bourbon, Race 9

R1

Majority Rules
Four Ten
One Eyed Jack

#4 MAJORITY RULES: Was a solid second last time out in his first venture around two turns, and that race came back pretty fast for the level. His pedigree says he’ll improve with experience, and he’s a logical favorite; #3 FOUR TEN: Stretches out to two turns and has the pedigree to embrace such a journey. Blinkers come on, and he figures to be forwardly-placed at a nice price; #2 ONE EYED JACK: Was a bit one-paced when third in his unveiling downstate. That day’s runner-up came back to run OK earlier in the meet, and he’s another that could take a step forward given added maturity.

R2

Maker entry
Mo Maverick
Sentry

MAKER ENTRY: I prefer #1A NOBLE THOUGHT, who drops back to the right level after a failed try against Grade 2 foes going very long at Belmont. He’s a consistent sort that could get a perfect stalking trip; #8 MO MAVERICK: Sure seems like the lone speed, and that’s been dangerous on the inner turf in past years, but he hasn’t won in a while and speed hasn’t been holding. He may be favored, but I find him difficult to trust; #9 SENTRY: Cuts back in distance after running a one-paced fourth against a solid field earlier in the meet. This change could wake him up, and he did win at this route last summer.

R3

Sharing
Micheline
Morning Gold

#11 SHARING: Looks like the one to beat if she draws in off the AE list. She was beaten just a neck in her debut, and she’s bred to want every inch of this two-turn trip; #2 MICHELINE: Isn’t necessarily bred to win first time out, but she ought to love going two turns on turf. Her dam, Panty Raid, won several Grade 1 races, including the American Oaks going 10 furlongs on turf; #7 MORNING GOLD: Was second in her debut for a barn whose horses often need a race to get going. She may improve, but I’m a bit hesitant to endorse the quality of the field she ran against earlier in the meet.

R4

Sharpin
Destiny Over Fate
Takecharge Mirella

#10 SHARPIN: Draws favorably on the drop in class second off the claim and could sit an ideal stalking trip. Her efforts two and three back were both solid, and we may get the juicy morning line price; #4 DESTINY OVER FATE: Was a distant second against similar foes earlier this meet, but may have been compromised by her rider losing an iron at the start. She might be better on wet tracks, but she could easily move up a few lengths off of her last race; #1 TAKECHARGE MIRELLA: Takes a steep drop in class for capable connections and has won over this track before. Her races this past spring were sharp, and she’ll be a contender if she can channel that form.

R5

Saratoga Treasure
Mama Mary
Sadie Lady

#2 SARATOGA TREASURE: Has run pretty well in each of her last two starts and returns to the site of her maiden-breaking score two years ago. There’s plenty of speed signed on, which could set things up for her late kick; #8 MAMA MARY: Prevailed by a head in her first start off a long layoff and tries tougher company here. Luis Saez has ridden her several times, and he’ll likely have her on or near the lead; #6 SADIE LADY: Comes in off of a career-best race, and when this barn gets a horse on the right track, they tend to stay there. Joel Rosario keeping the mount is certainly a plus.

R6

Mundaye Call
Plea
Lotta Ott

#10 MUNDAYE CALL: Gets a cushy outside draw in her debut and has been working lights-out over this track. She hammered for just shy of $1 million last summer and has every right to be a very fast horse; #6 PLEA: Debuts for Bill Mott following a strong gate drill earlier this month. The Claiborne homebred is a half to solid sire Congrats, and we may get a bit of a price; #3 LOTTA OTT: Got shuffled back when beaten at 6/5 odds in her debut, but she has an experience edge over most of this field. She could easily improve at second asking, and a cleaner trip puts her right there.

R7

Cross Border
Graded On a Curve
Gosilently

#3 CROSS BORDER: Was very impressive earlier this meet, when he overcame a tricky post to cruise home in a starter allowance race. That day’s third-place finisher came back to win a few days ago, and the better post is a big advantage; #1 GRADED ON A CURVE: Has improved in all three of his starts and tries winners for the first time. The faster they go earlier, the better this closer’s chances figure to be; #4 GOSILENTLY: Was a pick of mine earlier in the meet, when he faded to fifth. However, he may have needed that race, and that was a strong field for the level.

R8

Talk Veuve to Me
Free Kitty
Cookie Dough

#3 TALK VEUVE TO ME: Was a close-up third behind Special Relativity last time out, and that one has since come back to win a stakes race. Blinkers come on, and I’ll give her another shot to recapture her strong 2018 form; #1 FREE KITTY: Seems like the main closer in a race with lots of early speed. She generally fires the same race every time out, and she may be the one they have to hold off late; #2 COOKIE DOUGH: Drops out of graded stakes company to run in this optional claiming event. She may be the main speed, but she hasn’t won in a while and figures to be an underlay.

R9

Bohemian Bourbon
Sister Peacock
Chelsea Cloisters

#9 BOHEMIAN BOURBON: Ran reasonably well when third earlier this meet and gets another favorable setup here. She’ll be running well late beneath strong turf rider Leparoux, and the likely price is a bonus; #3 SISTER PEACOCK: Ships in from Woodbine having danced plenty of dances up there against strong fields. She figures to be prominent early and could appreciate the cutback in distance; #6 CHELSEA CLOISTERS: Hasn’t won in a while, but has run plenty of solid races over the past year and merits respect. She has tactical speed but doesn’t necessarily need the lead.

R10

Cobble Hill (MTO)
Duress
Highway Flyer

#7 DURESS: Didn’t break well in his debut, but showed some interest late and was beaten just two lengths for second. He may appreciate the added distance he gets in the Sunday finale; #9 HIGHWAY FLYER: Unseated his rider last time out and may be an inflated price because of that. He has some back form and could contend with a less-eventful trip; #4 SANDY LANE KITTEN: Drops in class and adds blinkers for this event, which could make him more forwardly-placed in an event without a lot of apparent early speed. This barn has enjoyed a strong meet to this point, and there aren’t any monsters lined up against him here.

SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (8/10/19)

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $907.10

Like many in the racing business, I keep count of how many tracks I’ve been fortunate enough to visit. That number is growing to 21 Saturday afternoon, as I’ll be in attendance at the Sonoma County Fair in Santa Rosa.

As some of my followers know, I’ve become quite enamored with the Northern California fair circuit, and I’m looking forward to the trip. If you’re on social media, follow me on Twitter at @AndrewChampagne, as I’ll likely have several photos from the fair (and maybe a selection or two, too!). Fair warning, though: Chances are this barrage will include several pictures of food that is both delicious and terrible for you. I assume no responsibility for any cravings that may result.

FRIDAY’S RESULTS: We got knocked out of the Pick Four early after 9-1 shot Bolita Boyz took the seventh. If there’s a silver lining, it’s that a scratch cut our losses to $18.

SATURDAY’S PLAY: My action focuses on a horse that may provide some value in the sixth race. I like #4 TURF WAR, who may have been best last time out off of a layoff and was compromised by a wide trip. I’ll play $4 doubles singling her that start with #1 IRISH FRONT, #2 KITTANSETT, and #7 TUMBLING SKY in the fifth, as well as $4 doubles starting with her in the sixth and ending with #2 OPTION VALUE, #7 GOZILLA, and #8 CARDIAC KID in the seventh. Finally, I’ll play a $1 Pick Three starting in the fifth that uses all of these runners.

TOTAL WAGERED: $33

– – – – –

BEST BET: Uni, Race 9
LONGSHOT: Seven Is Heaven, Race 2

R1

Englehart entry (MTO)
Wicked Freud
Startup Nation

#5 WICKED FREUD: Drops down in class for a strong barn and has run pretty well in all four of his starts this season. He’s certainly taken steps forward since being claimed in December, and he looks like the one to beat; #2 STARTUP NATION: Has not won in nearly five years and has not raced since late-2017. He comes back at the lowest level he’s ever run at, which hits me as a gigantic red flag; #7 CLOONTIA: Hasn’t won in a while, but likes Saratoga and stretches back out to a two-turn route of ground. He ran into a tough field for the level last time out, and that race was almost certainly shorter than he wants to go.

R2

Quiet Out East
Seven Is Heaven
Bassman Dave

#9 QUIET OUT EASY: Has run second in three straight starts and is one of only a few in here that’s shown he can pass horses late. The faster they go early, the better his chances figure to be; #5 SEVEN IS HEAVEN: Cuts back in distance after being wrapped up in the lane last time out. His effort two back off of a layoff wasn’t bad, and a repeat of that race gives him a shot at a price; #6 BASSMAN DAVE: Was second against similar foes last time out at Belmont and figures to be stalking the pace. He owns the top last-out Beyer Speed Figure in this race, and a similar effort would make him a contender.

R3

Lucky Curlin (MTO)
Decorated Invader
Summer to Remember

#7 DECORATED INVADER: Came flying late to be second in his debut at this route earlier in the meet. Improvement is certainly logical at second asking, though the rider change is a bit curious off of the strong effort; #1 SUMMER TO REMEMBER: Fetched $200,000 at auction in 2017 and is bred to love the lawn. He’s worked steadily for Todd Pletcher and may very well be good enough to win in his unveiling; #8 FAME TO FAMOUS: Ran fourth at a big price in his debut and attracts Luis Saez for his second career start. He’ll be a much shorter price than the 51-1 he was in that event, and for good reason.

R4

Running Violence
Wicked Trick
Elios Milos

#5 RUNNING VIOLENCE: Has been gelded since his last start and drops down from an open $25,000 claimer to a $16,000 claimer for non-winners of two. He’s got plenty of speed and is a threat to wire this group; #8 WICKED TRICK: Put it all together after 15 straight winless starts earlier this meet and tries winners for the first time. It’s entirely possible he was a dirt horse all along; #1 ELIOS MILOS: Was one-paced when fourth against slightly better earlier in the meet. That effort came when the track was playing very kindly to early speed, though, and he figures to be going well late.

R5

Kittansett
Tumbling Sky
Irish Front

#2 KITTANSETT: Hammered for $1.4 million last September at Keeneland, and for good reason. He’s by American Pharoah and out of a multiple Grade 2-winning mare, and he’s worked incredibly well ahead of his debut; #7 TUMBLING SKY: Debuts for Steve Asmussen, whose first-time starters here have been ready to run. Offspring of young sire Competitive Edge have looked impressive to this point; #1 IRISH FRONT: Draws the rail, which is often a concern with first-time starters, but comes in with a steady work tab of solid drills for Todd Pletcher. What concerns me more than the post, actually, is that he may be better-bred for turf than dirt.

R6

Turf War
Saint Moon
Catch a Thrill

#4 TURF WAR: May have been best earlier this meet, when she was caught very wide off of a long layoff and rallied to be beaten just a length. She should step forward in her second stateside start, and it’s not a shock she gets a new rider here; #7 SAINT MOON: Was most recently second in a minor stakes at Monmouth and will likely be on or near the lead here. She’s taken a big step forward off of a freshening she got earlier this year; #5 CATCH A THRILL: Was second in the race my top pick exits and will likely be doing her best running late. Her only poor effort to date came in the Grade 2 Appalachian, which was likely further than she wants to go.

R7

Gozilla
Option Value
Cardiac Kid

#7 GOZILLA: Has turned heads in the mornings for the Steve Asmussen barn ahead of his unveiling. The bullet work on July 28th jumps off the page, and if he runs to that, he hits me as the horse to beat; #2 OPTION VALUE: Sold for $210,000 as a weanling and is another with a strong recent gate work. Offspring of Into Mischief are usually precocious; #8 CARDIAC KID: Debuted going two turns, which is never an easy thing to do. He cuts back in distance for a trainer whose second-time starters are usually well-meant.

R8

Green Light Go
Zyramid
Noose

#3 GREEN LIGHT GO: Earned an 84 Beyer Speed Figure in his debut and has been working lights-out for a trainer not known for pushing his 2-year-olds very hard. That race’s runner-up has since come back to win, which only serves to flatter him; #2 ZYRAMID: Improved to graduate at second asking earlier this meet and showed some maturity that day rating just off of the front-runner down the backstretch. His pedigree says the added furlong won’t be an issue; #1 NOOSE: Romped in a 12-horse field at Churchill back in June and comes in off of a bullet work there on August 2nd. The rail draw isn’t ideal for a closer, but this barn has quietly emerged as one of the better 2-year-old outfits in the country of late.

R9

Uni
March to the Arch
Raging Bull

#3 UNI: Goes up against the boys here and certainly deserves the shot. She’s won five races in a row dating back to April of last year, and there’s more than enough pace here to set up for her late kick; #1 MARCH TO THE ARCH: Was a fast-closing fifth over yielding going in the Grade 3 Forbidden Apple. He’s far better over firm going, and a repeat of his two-back effort in the Grade 2 Wise Dan would give him a big shot; #4 RAGING BULL: Has been chasing better horses of late and cuts back in distance for this event. He won two graded stakes races here a season ago, and he may appreciate a return to his favorite track.

R10

La Chancla
Slimey
Alisio

#4 LA CHANCLA: Graduated when favored at second asking last month at Belmont and seems to be coming to hand for Rodolphe Brisset. She’ll be doing her best running late and seems like a logical favorite; #7 SLIMEY: Has won twice already this meet, although it’s unclear how much two muddy tracks helped her. She’s won over a fast track before, though, and she may just be peaking in the summer of her 3-year-old year; #3 ALISIO: Splashed home clear by more than seven lengths when last seen in December. She merits respect, although with her pedigree, I’m more inclined to think this may be a prep for a longer race down the line.

R11

Alphalfa
Magnesite
Wicked Grin

#5 ALPHALFA: Cuts back to a sprint distance and drops back into the maiden claiming ranks after a clunker going long against straight maidens back in June. His debut against similar foes was solid, and I’m inclined to think he’s the one to beat; #3 MAGNESITE: Will be running well late and has back form that makes him a contender. This barn is due to get rolling, and a repeat of his two-back effort may be good enough; #14 WICKED GRIN: Needs some luck to draw in off the AE list, but may be favored if he does. He’ll be dropping in class and would certainly be a threat to wire the field if he gets led over.

SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (8/9/19)

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $925.10

Earlier this week, the implementation of the $20 million Saudi Cup was announced with great flair and panache. The first renewal will be run in February of next year, and at least one major set of connections (Phoenix Thoroughbreds, which owns Gronkowski) has already said the race is a target.

On one hand, I refuse to cast aspersions on those who opt to participate in the race next year. Like it or not, money talks, and the winner’s share of a $20 million purse is far more than almost every great horse in history made in their careers. On the other hand, this concept makes me queasy, and I know I’m not alone among racing people in feeling that way. Saudi Arabia oppresses the female and LGBTQ communities, and that country’s government was likely involved in the brutal massacre of an American journalist.

Here’s the compromise I’m making: I will not consider results of the Saudi Cup in voting for either Eclipse Awards or the Hall of Fame, nor will I support the race at the betting windows. If you’re an American owner and want to send your horse there, go ahead. I hope you win. However, I can’t support your journey beyond those well-wishes.

THURSDAY’S RESULTS: This may have been a first, as I got nosed in two different ways in Thursday’s ninth race. Not only did my top pick in the print box get nosed for the win, but Belgrano, my longshot of the day and key horse in exactas, got nosed for second. We dropped $20.

FRIDAY’S PLAY: This is a solid card, and I particularly like the late Pick Four sequence. My 50-cent ticket, which starts in the seventh, goes like this: 2,7,10 with 4,5,9 with 1,2,3 with 1,8.

TOTAL WAGERED: $27

– – – – –

BEST BET: Lone Sailor, Race 5
LONGSHOT: Uno Mas Modelo, Race 9

R1

El Dulce
Raphael (MTO)
No Regrets

#4 EL DULCE: Drops in for a tag off of a race I’m more than willing to throw out. He’s run well on both turf and dirt, and was beaten less than two lengths in a Grade 2 event early in his career; #9 NO REGRETS: Hasn’t won in a while and doesn’t draw a great post, but has been second in his last two tries at this level. Dermot Magner claimed him last time out and he’s got speed; #5 QUEST FOR FIRE: Has never tried turf before this event, and that’s puzzling given his pedigree. He’s by City Zip, out of a Freud mare, and has every right to love the lawn.

R2

Super Silver
Bebeau
Freedom Prince

#8 SUPER SILVER: Did everything but win last time out at this level and route and comes back for another try. That was a fast race, and his dirt efforts are miles better than his turf and synthetic races; #2 BEBEAU: Hasn’t been seen since January and drops in for a tag for powerful connections. If he’s right, he probably wins, but given the layoff and the $400,000 auction purchase running for a $40,000 claiming price, there are red flags; #7 FREEDOM PRINCE: Came back running off the bench when second against similar company at Belmont. Two turns is an unknown, but a repeat effort would put him right there.

R3

Derby Memories (MTO)
Much Trouble
Stock Trade

#6 MUCH TROUBLE: Came flying late when beaten just a neck in his first start off the claim last month at Belmont. He’s run well going two turns, and Irad riding back is a plus; #1 STOCK TRADE: Broke a long drought with a win last time out at Belmont and steps up in class. He’s in form, but his best efforts have come downstate, which is a concern; #5 RED RIGHT HAND: Ran pretty well when third at this level earlier in the meet. He got stuck in traffic briefly late and would be a contender with a clean trip here.

R4

Portfolio Hedge
Fly Fly Away
Love Me Tomorrow

#7 PORTFOLIO HEDGE: Is bred for turf and debuts for Chad Brown. He’s worked steadily ahead of this event and gets a tepid nod to graduate at first asking; #9 FLY FLY AWAY: Debuted in an off-the-turf event last month and was one-paced, but gets to the surface he probably wants here. If there’s any hesitation, it’s because the post isn’t ideal; #5 LOVE ME TOMORROW: Goes to the grass after tiring in a pair of dirt efforts. She has the experience edge, but stamina questions still linger.

R5

Lone Sailor
Spinoff
Backsideofthemoon

#1 LONE SAILOR: Has been running against far better horses, even with this race coming up tough for the level. The class drop should be a welcome one, and they’ll likely go fast enough early to set up for his late kick; #2 SPINOFF: Is another dropping in class, and does so off of three straight Grade 1 races. He should appreciate the shallower waters as well, although he may want to go even longer than this race’s distance; #4 BACKSIDEOFTHEMOON: Hasn’t won in a while, but is a closer in a race with lots of early speed. Based on the likely race shape, he could clunk up for a piece of it at a price.

R6

Divided Sky
Indochine
Voting Agreement

#8 DIVIDED SKY: Is bred up and down to be a strong turf horse and debuts for 2-year-old wizard Wesley Ward. She’s worked very, very well on the Oklahoma turf course, and if she runs to those works, she’ll be formidable; #7 INDOCHINE: Represents half of a powerful 1-2 punch for Chad Brown. She hammered for $470,000 last September at Keeneland and boasts some strong local drills (though she may want longer than this distance); #4 VOTING AGREEMENT: Is a filly by More Than Ready, and that alone gives her license to like the grass. She didn’t hammer for as much as her stablemate, but she’s another with several good workouts here at Saratoga.

R7

Shareholder Value
Big Muddy
Hollywood Critic

#7 SHAREHOLDER VALUE: Comes in on a two-race win streak, and one of those victories came at this route earlier in the meet. This barn has won twice already here, and a repeat of the last two efforts would make this gelding the one to beat; #10 BIG MUDDY: Rallied to defeat bottom-level claimers at this route in the first few days of the meet and was claimed that day by Linda Rice. The faster they go early, the better this one’s chances figure to be; #2 HOLLYWOOD CRITIC: Cuts back in distance and drops in class for a barn that’s due to get rolling at the meet. Horses that cut back from two turns tend to have success going seven furlongs, and he could get brave on the front end beneath Luis Saez.

R8

Pauseforthecause (MTO)
Malakeh
Andina Del Sur

#4 MALAKEH: Was a respectable fourth in a stakes race back in June and comes back to the allowance ranks here. She was Group 2-placed overseas, and she looms large in this spot; #9 ANDINA DEL SUR: Hasn’t won since March of 2018, but is a Grade 3 winner that has run some big races in bigger spots than this. She figures to be running well late; #5 DREAM PASSAGE: Was a good second over yielding going earlier in the meet. Brad Cox has lots of success with turf runners, and she seems to be in career-best form, but she may need some give in the ground to fire her best shot.

R9

Pat On the Back
Killybegs Captain
Uno Mas Modelo

#3 PAT ON THE BACK: Hasn’t run a bad race in a year and a half and comes in off of two straight wins downstate. He seems to be at his peack, and his flexibility is a big, big plus; #2 KILLYBEGS CAPTAIN: Chased Promises Fulfilled in a Grade 2 last time out and drops back to a level he’s run well at previously. In fact, he won a similar race at Tampa in February, and among those he beat was Imperial Hint; #1 UNO MAS MODELO: Looked like a very sharp sprinter here last summer, and his form looks fantastic if you simply toss the graded stakes races in which he was outclassed. He loves Saratoga and could easily channel his 2018 form to factor in this event.

R10

Slimey (MTO)
Foolish Living
Dancing Vega

#1 FOOLISH LIVING: Chad Brown likely runs 1-2 in here if this stays on turf. I prefer this second-time starter, as she won impressively in her debut downstate and is bred to be any kind; #10 DANCING VEGA: Has worked very impressively ahead of her North American debut. She was bet like a good thing in a Group 3 earlier this year, and if she runs to that billing here, look out; #10 PANTHER HIT: Seems best of the rest after a close-up third against a tough allowance group last time out. That day’s winner runs in the eighth, and the runner-up is a two-time stakes winner.