SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (8/14/19)

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $850.10

Okay, folks, I need your help. I work for a chiropractic college, and later this week, I’ll be helping put on our annual conference. It’s going to be a lot of fun, but it’s also going to be a lot of work (we’re talking 12-16 hours a day later this week, so caffeine will likely be its own separate food group).

To make the bankroll section a bit easier to write later this week, and to provide some fresh content very few others are putting forth, I’m opening up the floor to you. Tweet me your comments and questions at @AndrewChampagne, or use the “contact” feature at AndrewChampagne.com. I read everything that comes in, and if you do this, you may see your name and submission up in lights later this week (I’m not cool enough for a Reddit “ask me anything,” so this will have to do).

I’ve long prided myself on putting forth content people actively want to read. This period is going to be as good as you make it, so let’s have some fun.

SUNDAY’S RESULTS: Sister Peacock ran a great race on the lead over a turf course that has not played kindly to speed. Unfortunately, she had to settle for third, and $24 worth of doubles went up in smoke.

WEDNESDAY’S PLAY: I’ll focus on the third race, where I think #4 ARISTOCRATIC could be very tough to catch on the drop in class. I’ll keep this really simple and plunk down $30 on him to win.

TOTAL WAGERED: $30

– – – – –

BEST BET: Kimari, Race 7
LONGSHOT: Dancingwthdaffodls, Race 10

R1

Snap Decision
Zanzi Win
Renown

#7 SNAP DECISION: Cruised home last time out at Monmouth and faces winners over fences for the first time. He showed a new dimension being on the lead that day, and that style could help him here; #1 ZANZI WIN: Gets Lasix in his American debut and has been running well of late in Europe. This barn has had a strong year to this point; #4 RENOWN: Lost his rider last time out but showed some talent in his prior three starts over fences. He’s run well on the flat here before and could sit a nice stalking trip.

R2

Beyond Gone
Dan the Man Can
More Thunder

#5 BEYOND GONE: Was beaten just a length in his debut earlier in the meet and is in line to take a big step forward. This barn’s horses often move way up at second asking, and Jose Ortiz hops aboard; #3 DAN THE MAN CAN: Comes back to dirt after a failed turf experiment and adds Lasix in this spot. His debut outing was pretty good, and he should be prominent early; #2 MORE THUNDER: Has a few solid workouts ahead of his unveiling and has a right to be precocious given that he’s a son of Goldencents. It helps that Rosario has been enticed to ride.

R3

Aristocratic
Reason to Soar
Orpheus

#4 ARISTOCRATIC: Drops way down in class and seems like the lone early speed in this event. He’s tired in his last several starts, but these waters are far more shallow and he may not have to go too fast early on to make the lead; #3 REASON TO SOAR: Is another class-dropper, and this one comes in from Florida off of a significant layoff. He’s been running against much better, but he hasn’t been the same horse he was in 2018 in four starts this season; #6 ORPHEUS: Hasn’t won in a while but has run second twice at this meet. He’d benefit from a faster-than-expected early pace and should come running late.

R4

Daddy Knows (MTO)
Gosilently
Bad Boy

#7 GOSILENTLY: Makes his second start off the bench and figures to be the main speed. He should improve given the prior race, and it helps that he’s run well twice at this distance; #11 BAD GUY: Has run fairly well in all three of his recent turf starts and may very well be good enough to overcome the terrible post. Irad Ortiz, Jr., signs on to ride, and they should be rolling down the stretch; #5 HONORABLE HERO: Hasn’t won in a while but tried stakes company last time out. He’s better-spotted here and has tactical speed.

R5

Katama Moonlight
Stand for the Flag
My Bronx Tail

#2 KATAMA MOONLIGHT: Hasn’t run since December, but has worked lights-out for powerhouse connections ahead of her return to the races. If she runs to her drills, she could be tough to beat; #6 STAND FOR THE FLAG: Suffered a tough beat here last year in her lone start to date, and has since moved to the Jason Servis barn. This outfit has had lots of success at this meet and can win with horses off of long layoffs; #4 MY BRONX TAIL: Got caught late in her first start since July of 2018 last time out and will almost certainly make the lead here. The question is, does she want to go seven furlongs?

R6

Astoria Kitten
Devils Rendezvous
More Than Silver

#3 ASTORIA KITTEN: Debuts for a hot barn and may not have to be too much to beat these. She’s by Kitten’s Joy and out of a Distorted Humor mare, so she has every right to be a runner; #6 DEVILS RENDEZVOUS: Was a one-paced fifth in her debut on the main track, but she may have needed the race and is bred to like the turf. Her works downstate since that race have been sharp; #4 MORE THAN SILVER: Is bred up and down for turf, so her debut on the main track is easy for me to throw out. She could improve and grab a piece of this at a price.

R7

Kimari
Abscond
Champagne Humor

#5 KIMARI: Just missed in a Group 2 at Royal Ascot and seems to tower over this group. Prior to the trip overseas, she romped by 15 lengths at Keeneland, and a similar effort would thump this bunch; #4 ABSCOND: Got her nose down in her debut at Ellis Park, and that day’s second-place finisher has since come back to win. This barn is quietly one of the best in the country with 2-year-olds; #6 CHAMPAGNE HUMOR: Isn’t just a hunch play, as she rallied to top several next-out winners in her unveiling at Gulfstream. The Florida trainer brings a Gulfstream-based rider up for this event, which is intriguing.

R8

Allured
Passcode
Violent Delights

#7 ALLURED: Hasn’t run since February, but has back form that would crush these and has been gelded since his last start. This is the weakest group he’s ever faced, and if he’s ready, he should win easily; #8 PASSCODE: Just missed here earlier in the meet and stretches out a bit in distance for new connections. He’s got plenty of speed and draws a solid outside post; #4 VIOLENT DELIGHTS: Comes back to dirt and drops back to the right level after a clunker against a strong starter allowance group on turf. He’s run well on dirt in the past and will likely be a square price.

R9

Turco Bravo (MTO)
Golden Spear
Total Tap

#11 GOLDEN SPEAR: Drops down in class and gets a tepid top selection in a wide-open turf race. The post is a big problem, but he may be talented enough to overcome it; #4 TOTAL TAP: Has hit the board in each of his last five starts and chased a next-out winner last time out at Monmouth. Castellano sees fit to ride, and that can’t be ignored; #10 SYCAMORE LANE: Has chased a solid horse for the level in each of his last two starts and may have caught a weaker field here. He’s won over this turf course before and has some tactical speed.

R10

Carrizo (MTO)
Dancingwthdaffodls
Questeq

#8 DANCINGWTHDAFFODLS: Didn’t have a great trip earlier in the meet, but can close and attracts Jose Ortiz. Her race two back was pretty good, and she could come running late at a nice price; #9 QUESTEQ: Exits the same race as my top pick and gets a big rider switch to Javier Castellano. She hasn’t run in a while, but she’s another that can run well late; #1 A DIXIE TWISTER: Has won two in a row and takes on tougher competition here. She draws well; the question is, does she have enough speed to utilize the rail draw to her advantage?

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