SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (8/11/19)

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $874.10

I’ll preface this by saying that Got Stormy is a classy racehorse. It takes class for a horse to come back quickly and win a Grade 1, as she did in Saturday’s Fourstardave. She’s an honest horse, and she can’t control what she runs against.

However, I can’t help but feel like this year’s group of American turf milers is a subpar one. When the world’s top horses come together later this year in the Breeders’ Cup at Santa Anita, I’m inclined to use every European runner I can afford in multi-race exotics that include the Mile. With all due respect to Got Stormy, who did something that’s very difficult to do, I just don’t think she beat that much, and I’m also not putting much stock into a time posted on arguably the fastest turf course in Saratoga history.

SATURDAY’S RESULTS: Turf War was left with too much to do late, and doubles and Pick Threes fizzled as a result. We dropped $33.

SUNDAY’S PLAY: I’ll focus on doubles later on in the program. My $6 tickets start in the eighth with #1 FREE KITTY and #3 TALK VEUVE TO ME and finish with #3 SISTER PEACOCK and #9 BOHEMIAN BOURBON in the ninth.

TOTAL WAGERED: $24

– – – – –

BEST BET: Maker entry, Race 2
LONGSHOT: Bohemian Bourbon, Race 9

R1

Majority Rules
Four Ten
One Eyed Jack

#4 MAJORITY RULES: Was a solid second last time out in his first venture around two turns, and that race came back pretty fast for the level. His pedigree says he’ll improve with experience, and he’s a logical favorite; #3 FOUR TEN: Stretches out to two turns and has the pedigree to embrace such a journey. Blinkers come on, and he figures to be forwardly-placed at a nice price; #2 ONE EYED JACK: Was a bit one-paced when third in his unveiling downstate. That day’s runner-up came back to run OK earlier in the meet, and he’s another that could take a step forward given added maturity.

R2

Maker entry
Mo Maverick
Sentry

MAKER ENTRY: I prefer #1A NOBLE THOUGHT, who drops back to the right level after a failed try against Grade 2 foes going very long at Belmont. He’s a consistent sort that could get a perfect stalking trip; #8 MO MAVERICK: Sure seems like the lone speed, and that’s been dangerous on the inner turf in past years, but he hasn’t won in a while and speed hasn’t been holding. He may be favored, but I find him difficult to trust; #9 SENTRY: Cuts back in distance after running a one-paced fourth against a solid field earlier in the meet. This change could wake him up, and he did win at this route last summer.

R3

Sharing
Micheline
Morning Gold

#11 SHARING: Looks like the one to beat if she draws in off the AE list. She was beaten just a neck in her debut, and she’s bred to want every inch of this two-turn trip; #2 MICHELINE: Isn’t necessarily bred to win first time out, but she ought to love going two turns on turf. Her dam, Panty Raid, won several Grade 1 races, including the American Oaks going 10 furlongs on turf; #7 MORNING GOLD: Was second in her debut for a barn whose horses often need a race to get going. She may improve, but I’m a bit hesitant to endorse the quality of the field she ran against earlier in the meet.

R4

Sharpin
Destiny Over Fate
Takecharge Mirella

#10 SHARPIN: Draws favorably on the drop in class second off the claim and could sit an ideal stalking trip. Her efforts two and three back were both solid, and we may get the juicy morning line price; #4 DESTINY OVER FATE: Was a distant second against similar foes earlier this meet, but may have been compromised by her rider losing an iron at the start. She might be better on wet tracks, but she could easily move up a few lengths off of her last race; #1 TAKECHARGE MIRELLA: Takes a steep drop in class for capable connections and has won over this track before. Her races this past spring were sharp, and she’ll be a contender if she can channel that form.

R5

Saratoga Treasure
Mama Mary
Sadie Lady

#2 SARATOGA TREASURE: Has run pretty well in each of her last two starts and returns to the site of her maiden-breaking score two years ago. There’s plenty of speed signed on, which could set things up for her late kick; #8 MAMA MARY: Prevailed by a head in her first start off a long layoff and tries tougher company here. Luis Saez has ridden her several times, and he’ll likely have her on or near the lead; #6 SADIE LADY: Comes in off of a career-best race, and when this barn gets a horse on the right track, they tend to stay there. Joel Rosario keeping the mount is certainly a plus.

R6

Mundaye Call
Plea
Lotta Ott

#10 MUNDAYE CALL: Gets a cushy outside draw in her debut and has been working lights-out over this track. She hammered for just shy of $1 million last summer and has every right to be a very fast horse; #6 PLEA: Debuts for Bill Mott following a strong gate drill earlier this month. The Claiborne homebred is a half to solid sire Congrats, and we may get a bit of a price; #3 LOTTA OTT: Got shuffled back when beaten at 6/5 odds in her debut, but she has an experience edge over most of this field. She could easily improve at second asking, and a cleaner trip puts her right there.

R7

Cross Border
Graded On a Curve
Gosilently

#3 CROSS BORDER: Was very impressive earlier this meet, when he overcame a tricky post to cruise home in a starter allowance race. That day’s third-place finisher came back to win a few days ago, and the better post is a big advantage; #1 GRADED ON A CURVE: Has improved in all three of his starts and tries winners for the first time. The faster they go earlier, the better this closer’s chances figure to be; #4 GOSILENTLY: Was a pick of mine earlier in the meet, when he faded to fifth. However, he may have needed that race, and that was a strong field for the level.

R8

Talk Veuve to Me
Free Kitty
Cookie Dough

#3 TALK VEUVE TO ME: Was a close-up third behind Special Relativity last time out, and that one has since come back to win a stakes race. Blinkers come on, and I’ll give her another shot to recapture her strong 2018 form; #1 FREE KITTY: Seems like the main closer in a race with lots of early speed. She generally fires the same race every time out, and she may be the one they have to hold off late; #2 COOKIE DOUGH: Drops out of graded stakes company to run in this optional claiming event. She may be the main speed, but she hasn’t won in a while and figures to be an underlay.

R9

Bohemian Bourbon
Sister Peacock
Chelsea Cloisters

#9 BOHEMIAN BOURBON: Ran reasonably well when third earlier this meet and gets another favorable setup here. She’ll be running well late beneath strong turf rider Leparoux, and the likely price is a bonus; #3 SISTER PEACOCK: Ships in from Woodbine having danced plenty of dances up there against strong fields. She figures to be prominent early and could appreciate the cutback in distance; #6 CHELSEA CLOISTERS: Hasn’t won in a while, but has run plenty of solid races over the past year and merits respect. She has tactical speed but doesn’t necessarily need the lead.

R10

Cobble Hill (MTO)
Duress
Highway Flyer

#7 DURESS: Didn’t break well in his debut, but showed some interest late and was beaten just two lengths for second. He may appreciate the added distance he gets in the Sunday finale; #9 HIGHWAY FLYER: Unseated his rider last time out and may be an inflated price because of that. He has some back form and could contend with a less-eventful trip; #4 SANDY LANE KITTEN: Drops in class and adds blinkers for this event, which could make him more forwardly-placed in an event without a lot of apparent early speed. This barn has enjoyed a strong meet to this point, and there aren’t any monsters lined up against him here.

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