SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (8/15/19)

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $820.10

If you haven’t read Teresa Genaro’s article from earlier this week on the stuff she’s had to deal with, take some time and seek it out. There’s been a lot of nonsense on social media this past week, and a lot of it’s been pretty difficult to digest. It got to where I actually had to put Twitter away for a while, which, as those who know me will attest, has probably never happened before.

I don’t agree with every word Teresa’s said or tweeted, but you don’t have to do that to see that some of the stuff lobbed in her direction has been absolutely vile. This isn’t a political matter, so don’t even go there. It’s a matter of human decency. When did it become so hard to engage in respectful discourse with others who have differing opinions? This baffles me, and I refuse to think I’m somehow less of a person for expecting others to conduct themselves as if they can’t hide behind a device connected to the Internet.

Let’s all be nice to each other, huh?

WEDNESDAY’S RESULTS: Aristocratic ran well, but got reeled in late after setting a very fast pace. We dropped $30.

THURSDAY’S PLAY: I’m taking a swing in the sixth race, where I like a pair of longshots on top. I’ll key #3 FALSE INFO and #4 MY AMANJENA on top of $2 exactas that use those two, #6 MO ZONE, #11 DULL KNIFE, and #12 SOUTHERN BRIGADE underneath. Additionally, I’ll use my top two in $2 doubles that start in the sixth and end with #1 ANDRETTA and #9 HOLLYWOOD CAT in the seventh.

TOTAL WAGERED: $24

– – – – –

BEST BET: Amazing Audrey, Race 1
LONGSHOT: False Info, Race 6

R1

Amazing Audrey
Bareeqa
Frozen Hannah

#2 AMAZING AUDREY: Has finished in the top two in each of her last seven starts and looms large on the drop in class. Her lone start to date over this turf course was an emphatic win, and her best effort would likely crush these; #4 BAREEQA: Is eligible to improve in her second start off of a brief freshening. She likes Saratoga and completes a strong 1-2 punch for the Gargan barn; #1 FROZEN HANNAH: Cruised in the slop at Indiana Grand in a race that doubled as her first start of this outfit. She comes back to turf and ran several solid races on the lawn at Gulfstream this past spring.

R2

British Idiom
Talk You Out of It
Esther’s Fortune

#3 BRITISH IDIOM: Debuts off of a very strong five-furlong gate drill at Churchill. That’s not the only strong move in her work tab, and this barn knows how to win with first-time starters; #10 TALK YOU OUT OF IT: Is already making her fifth start in this race, and the outside draw is a plus. She was third in a stakes race two back, and this doesn’t seem like the strongest race for the level; #8 ESTHER’S FORTUNE: Has a very classy pedigree and flashed some talent in a July 15 drill over this track. When Jose Ortiz rides for this barn, his mounts are usually live.

R3

No Dozing
Plainsman
Tale of Silence

#3 NO DOZING: Has done his best running at this distance and comes in off a second-place finish in an ungraded stakes race at Delaware. That day’s third-place finisher has since come back to win, and this one is making his third start off the bench; #2 PLAINSMAN: Got very good late last year, when he reeled off three wins in a row (including a Grade 3 score). He hasn’t run since and makes his first start for a new barn, but he’s worked very well ahead of his 2019 debut; #4 TALE OF SILENCE: Has tried tough company this year, including the likes of Mitole and McKinzie in the Grade 1 Met Mile. The class drop should help, and there’s speed in here that could set things up for him.

R4

Mystic Lancelot
Relentless Dancer
Now Is

#4 MYSTIC LANCELOT: Hammered for $450,000 earlier this year and has trained well for trainer Todd Pletcher. John Velazquez hops aboard, and he seems very well-meant; #2 RELENTLESS DANCER: Sold for $85,000 earlier this year despite a modest pedigree and has reeled off four straight bullets ahead of his debut. This barn can win with first-time starters, and he may be a nice price; #12 NOW IS: Ran second in an ungraded stakes race last time out at Monmouth and is a threat if he draws in off the AE list. He has an experience edge over this group that could prove helpful.

R5

Sneakiness
Cobble Hill
Swick

#5 SNEAKINESS: Comes back to dirt after an unsuccessful try on turf. He’s been gelded and drops down in class, and his past few works have been strong ahead of this event; #11 COBBLE HILL: Hasn’t run since December, and the drop in class is a bit alarming, but he’s worked well and draws a cushy outside post. He’s another running as a first-time gelding; #7 SWICK: Completes a trifecta of class-droppers and comes in off of two events that seemed fairly strong. This group isn’t nearly as accomplished, so an improved effort could be in the cards.

R6

False Info
My Amanjena
Dull Knife

#3 FALSE INFO: Has been gelded and drops in class for this race. He ran several solid races downstate earlier this year, and his morning line odds hit me as a substantial overlay; #4 MY AMANJENA: Didn’t run well earlier in the meet against similar, but that was his first poor effort since being switched to the turf. I’m willing to give him another shot, especially at his likely price; #11 DULL KNIFE: Drops way down in class on the trip north from Monmouth, but I have my doubts. He’s winless since coming to North America, the post is lousy, and it’s tough for me to trust him at a short price.

R7

Saloon Girl (MTO)
Hollywood Cat
Bond entry

#9 HOLLYWOOD CAT: Came back running off the layoff and returns to the state-bred ranks in this event. Jason Servis tends to keep horses on the right track, and he hits me as the one to beat; #1 ANDRETTA: Put it all together last time out, when she graduated at this route despite a horrible post. She faces winners for the first time, but the light bulb may have come on; #2 ANDARTA: Has a win at this route and almost certainly needed her most recent outing. If she’s fitter for this event and can channel her 2018 form, she’s got a shot at a big price.

R8

Bonita Bianca
Holiday Disguise
Pauseforthecause

#2 BONITA BIANCA: Cuts back from a mile to a distance she’s proven to like. She won this race a season ago and could sit a perfect stalking trip off of a solid early pace; #1 HOLIDAY DISGUISE: Has won several stakes races at this level and is the likely favorite. She’ll likely get plenty of pace to run at, but the rail draw is a red flag given the traffic she may have to work through; #4 PAUSEFORTHECAUSE: Hasn’t won in a while, but does her best running at Saratoga and exits an experiment going further than she wants to run. This is her preferred trip over her preferred track, and she cannot be ignored.

R9

Nasty Affair (MTO)
Double Happiness
Kerry’s Ring

#7 DOUBLE HAPPINESS: Debuts for a strong barn and is bred to be a good one. She’s by More Than Ready, which means she should like turf, and her dam was a stakes-placed runner (one that has already thrown another stakes-placed runner named John’s Island); #8 KERRY’S RING: May be a heavy favorite off of two straight second-place finishes downstate. She’s logical, but she burned a lot of money last time out without an apparent excuse, so it wouldn’t stun me if she loses again here; #12 CRESCENT LADY: Was a close-up third after pressing fast fractions in her most recent start. The post is a killer, but she may be able to clear most of this field early on.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s